With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.
Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.
Team
NET
COM
SOS
NSOS
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Away
Today
Arizona St.
66
66
62
123
5-6
4-5
5-0
8-1
12-7
Clemson
57
63
123
312
4-4
3-2
7-2
9-2
8-9
Mississippi St.
49
50
43
204
4-8
4-3
5-1
8-0
9-8
Nevada
37
42
24
70
4-5
4-3
10-2
3-0
8-9
North Carolina
46
44
12
18
2-9
5-4
7-0
6-0
8-10
North Texas
38
46
83
112
1-3
3-2
11-1
9-1
14-5
Oklahoma St.
43
38
11
158
6-12
4-2
3-1
5-0
7-10
Oregon
47
40
28
7
2-9
7-4
5-1
5-0
6-9
Pittsburgh
67
77
86
122
4-4
3-5
5-1
10-1
8-8
Rutgers
40
35
48
219
5-7
5-3
2-4
7-0
5-9
UAB
52
54
119
293
2-3
1-3
9-1
12-1
10-6
FAU
Utah St.
18
18
20
29
2-4
9-1
13-0
1-2
12-5
SDSU
Vanderbilt
79
79
6
12
5-9
5-1
5-2
5-1
8-8
TXAM
Wisconsin
82
75
36
118
6-8
5-5
1-1
5-0
8-8
These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.
Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.
In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.
Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.
If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special
Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St. USC, Pittsburgh, Mississippi St.
Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn St., Utah St., Rutgers
First 4 Out: Oklahoma St., North Carolina, Arizona St., Wisconsin
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Oregon, Michigan, North Texas
Note: Vanderbilt replaces Wisconsin in this list, as the Badgers are eliminated from the Bubble, moving Clemson up one notch, and Vanderbilt as the last of the NFO. Technically, UW still has the fourth highest PiRate Bracketology Score not in the field, but they cannot move up after being eliminated by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. The other teams on the Bubble can continue to improve their resumes.
The calendar seems to be accelerating these days, as conference tournament action just crept up on our PiRate Ship. Three weeks from today, teams will begin playing for an automatic bid to the Big Dance.
The PiRate Ratings have created a guide for you to follow along online to see what’s what and who’s in and out. As each tournament bracket becomes set, we will show you each team’s path to punching a Dance ticket, which teams are in line for at-large bids, and which teams can take out the Kleenex and shed some tears, maybe even necessitating the use of pink-shaded paper when delivering a message to the head coach.
There are 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, and in a 68-team tournament, 36 at-large teams will be selected. Here is a preliminary breakdown on how each conference looks as of today.
American Athletic
Houston (10-1/22-2) has a strong chance to get a #1 bid, if the Cougars continue winning. They are the only lock at the present time, because former near sure thing Memphis (7-3/17-6) keeps losing games they shouldn’t lose. Three other teams are on the radar where a hot finish could get them into the discussion on Selection Sunday. Cincinnati (7-4/16-8), Tulane (8-3/15-7), and Temple (8-3/14-10) most likely would have to get at least to the semifinals of the AAC Tournament and maybe make the Championship Game.
Atlantic Coast
Every year, some pundit or metric says the ACC is down. If you think that 10 ACC teams should always make the Field, then yes it is down. Because North Carolina and Duke aren’t the top two teams in the standings, the ACC is being dismissed as a potential championship league this year, but we wouldn’t be surprised if an ACC team makes the Final Four and if more than one make the Elite Eight.
As of today, it looks like seven teams could get into the tournament. Surprising Clemson (10-3/18-6) has a half-game lead over Virginia (9-3/17-4) and surprising Pittsburgh (9-3/16-7). Of the three, we think a hot finish by Virginia could make them a Final Four contender, because the Cavaliers are close to having the perfect resume for a Final Four team.
The other four teams that would be in the Field today are: North Carolina State (9-4/19-5), Miami (9-4/18-5), Duke (8-4/17-6), and North Carolina (7-5/15-8).
Three more teams, Wake Forest (7-6/15-9), Syracuse (7-6/14-10), and Virginia Tech (4-8/14-9) are in contention for bids but have a lot of work yet to do.
America East
This is a one bid league, and the perpetual top AEC team has slowly and deliberately climbed to the top again. Vermont (7-2/13-10) has a 5-game winning streak and has a full game lead over the team that was hot at the start of the season, UMass Lowell (7-4/19-6). The AEC Tournament is played on the home courts of the better seed, so getting home court advantage for the tournament might make it quite difficult to knock off the Catamounts.
Atlantic 10
In past years, three and four teams made the field from the A-10, but this year, it looks like a one-bid league. The A-10 Tournament is in Brooklyn, and it will be a wide-open affair. Current leader VCU (9-2/18-6) is not a clear-cut favorite, because this league tends to have more close games than blowouts. The Rams need their defense to create offense, and in the postseason, offense becomes more important than defense by a little.
Saint Louis (7-3/15-8) has more offense than VCU, but the Billikens have vulnerabilities that can be exploited by other A-10 teams. Dayton (7-4/15-9) may have the best talent in the league, but the Flyers have made numerous mistakes in games, where defensive lapses or lack of ball control has hurt them. Saint Bonaventure (7-4/13-11) has improved by several points per game in the last three weeks, and the Bonnies have crept up the standings. Coach Mark Schmidt has A-10 Tournament title success in recent years, so this is a team to keep an eye on. Fordham (6-4/18-5) plays excellent pressure defense but has size limitations and can be exploited inside. Duquesne (5-5/15-8) is a dark horse, but the Dukes haven’t been in the NCAA Tournament since 1977.
Atlantic Sun
This is definitely a one-bid league, and recent ASUN dynasty team Liberty (10-2/19-6) shares the lead with Kennesaw St. (10-2/18-7). Neither team is a slam-dunk sure thing to make the Championship Game in this balanced league. Keep an eye on Eastern Kentucky (9-3/16-9), where Coach A.W. Hamilton has the Colonels playing their typical disruptive defense and up-tempo offense. His teams don’t start games tight like teams that play more patient basketball. In the postseason, this style frequently pulls off upsets, but it is also vulnerable to laying an egg. Lipscomb (7-5/15-10) just beat Liberty, and has a favorable schedule down the stretch to sneak into the 3-hole in the seeding.
Big 12
This is the best conference in college basketball this year, and a team with a losing conference record could very well make the Big Dance. It’s been a year full of anxiety down in Austin with a mid-season coaching change necessitated by off-court actions, but Texas (8-2/19-4) has made it back to the top of the standings. Iowa State (7-3/16-6) easily handled Kansas (6-4/18-5) over the weekend to move into second place. These three are locks for the Dance.
Baylor (6-4/17-6), Kansas State (6-4/17-5), and TCU (6-4/17-6) are close to locks and need just to keep playing on their current paces. Oklahoma State (5-5/14-9) is in good shape and short of a meltdown should be in the discussion on Selection Sunday. West Virginia (3-7/14-9) may have the best chance of any team currently 4 games under .500 in their league to still make the field as an at-large team. Oklahoma (2-8/12-11) is on the outside, looking in, even with a 24-point win over Alabama.
Big East
The conference tournament at Madison Square Garden will be one of the most exciting of all this year, as it is in most seasons, because there are six teams with legitimate designs on the trophy. Five of the six are at-large worthy today. Marquette (11-2/19-5) has a 5-game winning streak, and Shaka Smart knows how to win in the postseason. Xavier (11-2/19-5) has four victories over ranked opponents and Archie Miller knows how to win in the postseason. Creighton (9-3/15-8) and Providence (9-3/17-6) will hear their names called on Selection Sunday, as will Connecticut (7-6/18-6). Seton Hall (8-5/15-9) is in contention for an at-large spot, and Coach Shaheen Holloway has had recent tournament success at Saint Peter’s.
Big Sky
This is a one-bid league, and Eastern Washington (12-0/18-7) has lapped the field with 14 consecutive wins. Montana State (10-2/17-8) is the top contender. Any other team that wins the conference tournament could be looking at a First Four game in Dayton.
Big South
This is a one-bid league and probably #16-seed bid at that. Longwood (8-4/16-9) led the race throughout most of January, but the Lancers fell behind UNC Asheville (10-2/18-7) and the red-hot Radford Highlanders (10-2/16-9), who have now won nine games in a row. UNCA does not have the typical resume for postseason success, as they get beat in the hustle stats that become much more important in March. Longwood won the automatic bid last year but quickly lost in the Round of 64 by more than 30 points.
Big Ten
The Big Ten figures to get at least seven teams into the Field, but this conference has disappointed year after year for the last 20 seasons. Heavily favored teams have been upset early, as mid-major champions with more quickness have defeated more physical Big Ten teams. Chief among the disappointing is Purdue (11-2/22-2). Is this the year that Zach Edey leads the Boilermakers back to the Final Four for the first time since Joe Barry Carroll led PU there in 1980? Since the Gene Keady era began in West Lafayette in 1981 and through his protege Matt Painter’s now 17th year, the Boilermakers have made 30 of the 41 NCAA Tournament fields, frequently with a top 4 seed. PU has made just two Elite 8’s and eight Sweet 16’s in those 30 seasons, and there is a valid reason why even as a #1-seed three times, they have not had a lot of tournament success.
Purdue has been an excellent half-court possession team in the regular seasons for the last 30 years, but the Boilermakers have not been up to snuff in the hustle points, especially in forcing turnovers and steals, where the elite teams usually perform quite well. Just like Billy Beane stated in Moneyball that his methods did not work in the Playoffs, Boilerball doesn’t work in the NCAA Tournament. Could this finally be the year where PU crosses the rubicon and makes it to the third weekend? They have a dominating presence on the glass unlike most years in the past, but once again, they do not force turnovers and pick up steals that lead to cheap baskets. Winning the title with a negative turnover margin isn’t something that has been done often since 1939.
Other Big Ten teams that figure to receive invitations are: Rutgers (8-4/16-7), Indiana (7-5/16-7), Illinois (7-5/16-7), Maryland (7-5/16-7), Northwestern (7-5/16-7), Iowa (7-5/15-8), and Michigan State (6-6/14-9). Michigan (7-5/13-10) needs to close the season on a big winning streak to get onto the bubble. The last time the Big Ten produced a national champion was 23 years ago, when Michigan State cut down the nets. That’s a long time for a league that is supposed to be one of the top three.
Big West
This is a one-bid league in a very interesting conference race. UC Santa Barbara (9-2/18-4) and UC-Irvine (8-3/15-8) have dominated the league in recent years, but Long Beach State (8-4/14-10) pulled of the upset last year to get the bid. LBSU has a 6-game winning streak. LBSU relies more on inside play than hitting threes from the perimeter, and they are most likely to play more consistently in the Big West Tournament.
Hawaii (8-4/17-7) and UC Riverside (8-4/15-9) are forces to be reckoned with. They are capable of beating any of the top three, making this a 5-team race for the bid.
Colonial Athletic
Until last week, Charleston (10-2/22-3) looked like a runaway choice to win the one bid from this league and maybe even earn a #11 or #12 seed. From out of nowhere came the Hofstra Pride (10-2/17-8) with a 5-game winning streak that included beating C of C in Charleston. Coach Speedy Claxton has done a bang-up job since taking over for legendary coach Joe Mihalich two years ago. Claxton is a big hero in Hempstead, NY, where he donated a lot of money to help build the arena in which his jersey is retired. He played for Jay Wright, and Wright proteges do quite well on the Eastern Seaboard.
Conference USA
This may become a two-bid league if somebody upsets Florida Atlantic (12-1/22-2) in the CUSA Tournament in Frisco, Texas. Hometown favorite North Texas (10-3/19-5) has a pair of four-point losses to the Owls, and those four points can easily be made up when a Dance Ticket is on the line.
UAB (8-5/17-8) beat FAU last week, and the Blazers have the talent to win this tournament. An improving dark horse is Middle Tennessee (8-5/15-9).
If you want to see two college basketball games live at the same time, this tournament allows you to do so, from a large distance. CUSA has two basketball courts set up at the Dallas Cowboys practice facility, separated by a thick curtain behind the bleachers. By sitting deep in the end zone at curtain level extended, you can view both courts simultaneously.
Horizon
This is another one-bid league, and this is not a big year in the HL. No team is powerful enough to pose as a legitimate surprise Sweet 16 team or even a Round of 32 team. Youngstown State (11-3/19-6) has a fun offense to watch play, but the Penguins are probably another year away from being good enough to win a tournament game. Keep an eye on Coach Jerrod Calhoun. He won big at Division 2 Fairmont State, and he’s slowly built the Penguins into the top HL program.
Milwaukee (10-3/16-7) and Northern Kentucky (10-4/15-10) figure to be the top contenders to YSU.
Ivy
The top four in the league make the conference tournament, which will be played at Jadwin Gymnasium at Princeton. The home team Tigers (7-2/16-6) have raced past Cornell (5-4/15-7) and lead Yale (6-3/16-6) by a game. Penn (5-4/13-11) and Brown (5-4/12-10) are tied with Cornell for third, and there is room for two of the three in the conference tournament. Yale is the hot team, and the Bulldogs may give the Ivy its best chance for an upset win.
Metro Atlantic
It looked like Iona (9-3/16-7) with Rick Pitino coaching was the class of the league, but the Gaels hit a rough patch in January. Siena (9-4/15-9) briefly took command of the conference lead but hit a rough patch in February. The hot team de jour is Rider (10-3/13-9), with a 7-game winning streak.
The one-bid for this league is up for grabs, and if there is a team from back in the pack with a slim chance to sneak up and win the automatic bid, it is Niagara (8-5/13-9).
Mid-American
Kent State (8-2/18-5) led the MAC by two games through January, as the Golden Flashes’ stingy pressure man-to-man defense devastated opponents. They ceded their conference lead and fell into a second place tie due to two red hot teams. Akron (9-1/17-6) has won eight games in a row, and Toledo (8-2/18-6) has won their last seven. One of these three should win the one automatic bid, but there are others that could go on a run.
Mideastern Athletic
If you are old enough to have watched college basketball in the mid-1970’s, you might remember the 1974 NIT. Maryland Eastern Shore was 26-1 and a logical top seed in the NAIA Tournament. However, some African American leaders, led by the Reverend Jesse Jackson, lobbied the NIT to invite the Hawks, and he pressured the tournament enough to submit a bid to the NAIA program, the first and only time this happened.
UMES proved worthy by winning its first NIT game over Manhattan before falling by a deuce to Jacksonville in the second round.
That is the only real postseason success UMES (6-1/14-8) has had in the NCAA. The Hawks are one of the most entertaining teams in college basketball. This team is nothing like that great 1974 team that featured a fantastic inside game; they are more like the 1964 UCLA Bruins. No starter is over 6 foot 5. They are basically a 5-guard lineup, and they are defensive pests. The Hawks created instant offense by stealing the ball and forcing turnovers, and then they limit three-point shooting on defense. Plus, this team is loaded with experienced players, the type that can play above its expectations in March. Should UMES get into the Tournament, they will still likely be placed in the First Four round in Dayton, but they will be really fun to watch play.
Of course, the MEAC is a one-bid league, and UMES must hold off Norfolk State (5-2/16-7), Howard (6-1/14-10 & 6 in a row), and Morgan State (4-3/12-11).
Missouri Valley
Arch Madness is going to be the most interesting in years this season, because the Valley is a lot better than most people realize, even if it remains a one-bid league. This is a conference to look at in a potential double-digit NCAA Tournament team upsetting a single digit tournament team.
The race is currently tied with four teams, and if these four make the conference tournament semifinals, it may make Arch Madness the very best final two rounds of any conference tournament!
Drake (10-4/19-6) may have the best shot at winning a game in the Dance. The Bulldogs are a 5-tool team, better than average shooting threes, getting inside baskets, playing defense, winning the rebound war, and having positive turnover margin. The Bulldogs also have this league’s lone win over a ranked team.
The other three contenders are Bradley (10-4/17-8), Southern Illinois (10-4/18-7), and Belmont (10-4/17-8).
Mountain West
Here is a conundrum. The MWC has more tournament worthy teams than the Pac-12 at the moment. Five teams deserve to be seriously considered, and even though the Selection Committee claims that they pay no attention to the number of teams from a conference that receive a bid, they definitely do but do it subtly. If the Pac-12 only has three worthy teams with a fourth team on the Bubble, while this league has five tournament worthy teams, it is almost a metaphysical certitude that the fourth Pac-12 team will get in at the expense of the fight MWC team, and the Committee Chair will have statistical reasons to vindicate that selection. Remember that there are three types of lies, and number three on the list is statistics. No matter what the liability, the Committee will choose that one, whichever it is, to show that the other nine factors showing the MWC team to be better are not valid.
Editorial over. The five teams that deserve to be in the Big Dance today are San Diego State (9-2/18-5), Nevada (8-3/18-6), Boise State (8-3/18-6), New Mexico (6-4/19-4), and Utah State (8-3/19-5). We expect one of these five to get the shaft on Selection Sunday.
Northeast
This figures at the moment to be the weakest conference, and almost a sure bet to send its one-bid champion to the First Four in Dayton. Unfortunately for the NEC, its current best team is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament due to its transition phase to Division 1 (a rule we find ridiculous). Stonehill (8-3/12-14) can’t play in the NCAA or NIT this year. Third place Merrimack (7-4/9-16) is also ineligible for the same reason. That leaves Fairleigh-Dickinson (7-3/14-11) as the best bet, with Sacred Heart (6-5/13-13) and Wagner (5-5/12-9) the top contenders. Last year’s Conference Tournament Champion Bryant is no longer in the league.
Ohio Valley
Thisone-bid league has been ravaged by team defections to other leagues, namely its former top four programs. Only two of the original eight teams still remain in the league. One of those two is Morehead State (9-3/16-9) leads the league with six other teams within striking distance of getting a #1 or #2 seed, which in this league gives them a bye to the semifinals. One of those teams contending for a triple bye is Southern Indiana (6-6/13-12), but the Screaming Eagles are not eligible for the NCAA Tournament. SIU Edwardsville (7-5/16-9) may be the best road team in the league this year, and the Cougars are riding high following a 55-foot game-winning buzzer beater on Saturday.
Pac-12
The Conference of Champions hasn’t had a basketball champion since 1997! The league might even be only the third best in the West! When you think about how far this league has fallen, if you eliminate UCLA in the John Wooden years, not much has changed in 60 years.
Not much else has changed that UCLA (10-2/19-4) is the premiere team in the league. Coach Mick Cronin is a Rick Pitino protege, and he knows how to win in tournament action. Cronin’s team has to be considered a strong Final Four contender this year, because the Bruins have all the necessary criteria to get there–a very experienced roster and coach, excellent defensive efficiency, almost great offensive efficiency, and outright dominance in the hustle stats. The offensive efficiency is a tad lower than National Championship standards, but a hot finish could put them there. If the Bruins run the table from here, they are getting a #1 seed.
Of the rest of the field, Arizona (10-3/21-3) is a lock and still has a chance to move up to the 1-seed line. USC (9-3/17-6) isn’t a lock yet, but if the season ended today, the Trojans would be in the Field.
Three others still have a chance to get to the good side of the Bubble. Utah (9-5/16-9), Oregon (8-5/14-10), and Arizona State (7-6/16-8) must go on substantial winning streaks to break through.
Patriot
This is a one-bid league with no clear-cut slam dunk favorite. Colgate (11-1/17-8) is close to securing the top seed in the conference tournament, and the Raiders have a highly efficient offense. Their defense is not scary enough to pull off a big upset as a #15 seed in the Dance.
Top contenders for the bid include: Lehigh (9-3/14-9), American (7-5/15-8), who just beat Colgate, and Army (7-5/13-12).
Southeastern
The SEC is always considered down when Kentucky (7-3/16-7) isn’t running away with the conference championship and staying in the top 5 nationally. The Cats aren’t out of the picture for winning the SEC Tournament, where Nashville will become Lexington South in March.
Alabama (10-0/20-3) has to be considered a national title contender. Coach Nate Oats has perhaps the nation’s top player in Brandon Miller, the closest thing to a college Lebron James.
Tennessee (8-2/19-4), Arkansas (5-5/16-7), and Auburn (7-3/17-6) will get bids, but none of this trio have a Final Four resume. Missouri (5-5/17-6) might have the numbers to sneak into the Sweet 16 in year one under Dennis Gates.
Texas A&M (8-2/16-7) is tied for second in the league, but the Aggies played a weak non-conference slate and have more work to do before being considered a definite Tourney team. Florida (6-4/13-10) and Mississippi State (3-7/15-8) are within shouting distance with hot finishes, but as of today are NIT teams.
Southern
This is a one-bid league this year, as there are multiple fairly good teams but no teams that merit discussion for at-large bids. Furman (10-2/19-6) is competent in every aspect but defending the perimeter. The Paladins have the best chance at winning as a #13 or #14 seed in the Dance, but it’s still a slim chance. Others in contention are Samford (10-2/16-9) and UNC Greensboro (10-2/16-9).
Southland
This one-bid league is another in danger of sending its champion to the First Four in Dayton. No team has shone above the others this year, so the conference tournament should be wide open. Northwestern State (8-3/16-8), Texas A&M Corpus Christi (8-3/15-9), and Southeast Louisiana (8-3/14-10) figure to provide the championship game combatants. NW State has a ranked victory over TCU.
Southwestern Athletic
This league rarely has a Big Dance participant with an outstanding won-loss record, and that’s a result of the members in this league being forced to play a lot of road games against power conference opponents, just so they can cash a check and pay the bills. The SWAC usually competes for bottom team in the NCAA field and almost always sends its one-bid champion to the First Four in Dayton.
This year, three teams may be good enough to at least win that First Four game. Southern (8-2/12-11) is led by a Pitino protege. Coach Sean Woods was one of Kentucky’s famed “Unforgettables,” and his team plays the same way UK played back then–press hard and take a lot of three-point shots. The Jaguars’ top competitors are Alcorn State (7-2/10-11) and Grambling (7-3/14-8). Grambling has two Power Conference wins this year, against Colorado and Vanderbilt.
Summit
This race was over in mid-January, as Oral Roberts (12-0/21-4) ran away from the field like the 1927 Yankees did to the rest of the American League. All four of the Titans losses have come to teams that woud be in the NCAA Tournament if it began today. ORU has profited through the Transfer Portal, where Coach Paul Mills added two SEC transfers to an experienced roster. Multiple starters from the NCAA Tournament team that beat Ohio State and Florida to make the Sweet 16 and almost beat Arkansas for a chance at the Elite 8 are on this team. They could be scary if they are in your favorite Power Conference team’s bracket.
Among the rivals trying to steal this league’s bid are South Dakota State (9-4/14-11), Western Illinois (8-5/15-9), and UMKC (6-6/10-15). If anybody other than ORU gets this bid, it will be shocking.
Sun Belt
Is it possible that this league deserves two bids? Louisiana (10-2/20-4) and Southern Miss. (10-2/21-4) are solid teams but haven’t played a hard enough schedule to merit discussion. Neither is guaranteed a spot in the conference tournament title game, because James Madison (8-4/17-8) and Marshall (8-4/19-6) are both talented enough to win three games in three days. Any one of these four teams have enough talent to scare a Power Conference opponent in the Round of 64.
West Coast
This is a definite two-bid league with the chance for a third team getting in by winning the automatic bid.
Saint Mary’s (10-0/21-4) just staged a great second half comeback to beat Gonzaga (8-2/19-5) in overtime, likely giving the Gaels enough cushion to win the conference championship and earning the #1 seed.
Loyola Marymount (6-5/16-9) beat Gonzaga in January, and the Lions may have their best team since Bo Kimble shot his one-handed free throws in a memorable Big Dance.
BYU (6-5/16-10) is having an off year for Coach Mark Pope, but Pope has the coaching knowledge to prepare a gameplan on the quick and win in conference tournament play.
Santa Clara (5-5/17-8) gives the WCC five good teams. The Broncos played SMC and Gonzaga close in January.
Western Athletic
This is a one-bid league with one team that could be a dark horse Sweet 16 candidate, if they can win the conference tournament. Sam Houston State (7-4/17-6) is currently in a three-way tie for third in the league. The Bearkats are quite difficult to prepare to play by a team that hasn’t seen them before. Teams that play against their pressure defense come away thinking they have played against 6 defenders, because they always seem to have a double team on the ball with no open players for the ball handler to pass the ball. SHSU limits shot opportunities, makes those opportunities tend to be poor percentage shots, and if a team tries to hold onto the ball too long, the Bearkats can take it away.
Utah Valley (9-2/18-6) is the current league leader. The Wolverines solved SHSU’s defense and beat them by 16 points in January. UVU is led by former Stanford standout and NBA banger Mark “Mad Dog” Madsen.
Here are the different styles of regular bracket seeding schedules for a 4, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 team conference tournament. There are no 9-team tournaments this year.
4-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
Semifinals
#1 Seed vs. # 4 Seed
#2 Seed vs. #3 Seed
8-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. #8 Seed
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed
#2 Seed vs. #7 Seed
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed
Semifinals
1-8 winner vs. 4-5 winner
2-7 winner vs. 3-6 winner
10-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6 winner
11-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#6 Seed vs. #11 Seed
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11 winner
12-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#5 Seed vs. #12 Seed
#6 Seed vs. #11 Seed
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5-12 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11 winner
13-Team Conference Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#12 Seed vs. #13 Seed
2nd Round
#5 Seed vs. 12-13 winner
#6 Seed vs. #11 Seed
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12-13 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5-12-13 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11 winner
14-Team Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#11 Seed vs, #14 Seed
#12 Seed vs. #13 Seed
2nd Round
#5 Seed vs. 12-13 winner
#6 Seed vs. 11-14 winner
#7 Seed vs. #10 Seed
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12-13 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11-14 winner
Semifinals
1-8-9 winner vs. 4-5-12-13 winner
2-7-10 winner vs. 3-6-11-14 winner
15-Team Tournament Bracket
1st Round
#10 Seed vs. #15 Seed
#11 Seed vs. #14 Seed
#12 Seed vs. #13 Seed
2nd Round
#5 Seed vs. 12-13 winner
#6 Seed vs. 11-14 winner
#7 Seed vs. 10-15 winner
#8 Seed vs. #9 Seed
Quarterfinals
#1 Seed vs. 8-9 winner
#4 Seed vs. 5-12-13 winner
#2 Seed vs. 7-10-15 winner
#3 Seed vs. 6-11-14 winner
Here is a look at the conference tournament schedules, sites, and formats. If there is no footnote, then the conference uses the standard format shown in the above brackets.
1 = 1st Round; 2 = 2nd Round; Q = Quarterfinals; S = Semifinals; C = Championship
Conference Tournaments 2023
Teams in
February
M A R C H
Conference
Site
Bracket
27
28
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
America East
Better Seed Home
8 of 9
Q
S
C
American Athletic
Fort Worth, TX
All 11
1
Q
S
C
Atlantic 10
Brooklyn
15
1
2
Q
S
C
Atlantic Coast
Greensboro, NC
15
1
2
Q
S
C
Atlantic Sun (a)
Better Seed Home
10 of 14
1
Q
S
C
Big 12
Kansas City
10
1
Q
S
C
Big East
New York (MSG)
11
1
Q
S
C
Big Sky (b)
Boise, ID
10
1
Q1
Q2
S
C
Big South
Charlotte
10
1
Q
S
C
Big Ten
Chicago
14
1
2
Q
S
C
Big West (c)
Henderson, NV
10 of 11
1
Q
S
C
Colonial Athletic
Washington, D.C.
13
1
2
Q
S
C
Conference USA
Frisco, TX
11
1
Q
S
C
Horizon (d)
Campus, Indianapolis
11
1
Q
S
C
Ivy League
Princeton, NJ
4 of 8
S
C
Metro Atlantic (e)
Atlantic City, NJ
11
1
Q1
Q2
S
C
Mid-American
Cleveland
8 of 12
Q
S
C
Mideastern Athletic (f)
Norfolk, VA
8
Q1
Q2
S
C
Missouri Valley
Saint Louis
12
1
Q
S
C
Mountain West
Las Vegas
11
1
Q
S
C
Northeast (g)
Better Seed Home
8 of 9
Q
S
C
Ohio Valley (h)
Evansville, IN
8 of 10
1
Q
S
C
Pac-12
Las Vegas
12
1
Q
S
C
Patriot
Better Seed Home
10
1
Q
S
C
Southeastern
Nashville
14
1
2
Q
S
C
Southern
Asheville, NC
10
1
Q
S
C
Southland (i)
Lake Charles, LA
8 of 10
1
Q
S
C
Southwestern Athletic (j)
Birmingham, AL
8 of 12
Q1
Q2
S
C
Summit (k)
Sioux Falls, SD
10
1
Q1
Q2
S
C
Sun Belt
Pensacola, FL
14
1
2
Q
S
C
West Coast (l)
Las Vegas
10
1
2
Q
S
C
Western Athletic (m)
Las Vegas
12 of 13
1
Q
S
C
(a) Atlantic Sun: Opening round 10 vs. 9 at 1 & 8 vs. 7 at 2. Teams reseeded for Semifinals
(b) Big Sky: Opening round 10 vs. 9 & 8 vs. 7. Q1: 9-10 winner vs. 1 & 7-8 winner vs. 2. Q2 3-6 & 4-5
(c) Big West: UC San Diego non participating–ineligible while transitioning to D1
(d) Horizon League: 1st round and quarterfinals on better seed home floor; semis and championship at Indianapolis
(e) Metro Atlantic: #1 and #2 seeds play on M8 and #3 and #4 seeds play on M9 in quarterfinals
(f) Mideastern Athletic: #1 and #2 seeds play on M8 and #3 and #4 seeds play on M9 in quarterfinals
(g) Northeast: Merrimack, is allowed in NEC Tournament but ineligible for NCAA. Stonehill is not eligible for either tournament due to transition to D1
(h) Ohio Valley: Top 8 qualify, but Southern Indiana and Lindenwood not eligible for NCAA Tournament
(h) Ohio Valley: 5-8 & 6-7 in Rd 1; 5-8 winner vs. 4 & 6-7 winner vs. 3 in Q; 4-5-8 winner vs. 1 & 3-6-7 winner vs. 2 in S
(i) Southland: Top 8 teams qualify for conference tournament, but Texas A&M Commerce not eligible for NCAA tournament
(i) Southland: 5-8 & 6-7 in Rd 1; 5-8 winner vs. 4 & 6-7 winner vs. 3 in Q; 4-5-8 winner vs. 1 & 3-6-7 winner vs. 2 in S
(j) Southwestern Athletic: #1 and #2 seeds play on M8; #3 and #4 seeds play on M9
(k) Summit: #1 and #2 seeds play on M4; #3 and #4 seeds play on M5
(l) West Coast: 8-9 & 7-10 in Rd 1; 8-9 winner vs. 5 & 7-10 winner vs. 6 in Rd 2; 5-8-9 vs. 4 & 6-7-10 vs. 3 in Q; 4-5-8-9 vs. 1 & 3-6-7-10 vs. 2 in S
(m) Western Athletic: Top 12 teams qualify; Utah Tech and Tarleton State not eligible for the NCAA Tournament
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball Conference Tournament Sneak Peak
Last 4 Byes: Creighton, Memphis, Maryland, Pittsburgh
Last 4 In: Boise St., Penn St., Northwestern, West Virginia
First 4 Out: Nevada, Mississippi St., Oklahoma, Virginia Tech
Next 4 Out: Utah St., Wake Forest, Kentucky, USC
Note: The predictions made in PiRate Ratings Bracketology are our opinions on what we believe the NCAA Selection Committee will choose based on the criteria they have at their disposal.
This early Sunday morning on the PiRate ship, we are hunkered down in the hull with a spreadsheet full of numbers. After New Mexico State, Arizona, and Cal St. Fullerton enjoyed late night trophy raisings in Las Vegas, we added the updated numbers to our Bracketology and narrowed the field of hopefuls down to 70 and then realized we had one more team that maybe should not have been sent to the SS NIT and one team that maybe shouldn’t be considered a lock for the Dance. So, we are sitting at 72 teams this morning. There are six teams at the bottom of the Bubble, and three of them will be happy around 6:30 PM EDT, while three will have to settle for a possible trip to the flowerless garden in the Big Apple rather than the Garden District in the Crescent City.
The six bubblers this morning (in alphabetical order) are: Rutgers, SMU, Texas A&M, Xavier, Wake Forest, and Wyoming. Let us add the last potential bid-stealer to this formula. If Richmond upsets Davidson today in the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game, the Spiders will receive an automatic bid, while Davidson receives an at-large invitation. That will reduce one spot at the bottom of the Bubble. Additionally, if Texas A&M upsets Tennessee in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game, the Aggies will move ahead of the Last Four in, as they would be guaranteed immunity from going to Dayton early next week. That would then take a team that currently has a bye and drop them into First Four purgatory.
By 3:00 PM EDT, we will know whether Richmond secured a spot in the Field of 68 and if Texas A&M is either an automatic bid-earner or Bubble team in the last decisions to be made. One of our fine Buckaroo lasses then pointed out that the outcome of the American Athletic Conference Championship Game between Houston and Memphis could affect the resume of SMU. A Memphis win might drag the Mustangs along in the Tiger draft. Additionally, the Iowa-Purdue Big Ten Championship Game tips off after 3:00 PM EDT, and both teams’ seed line could move one spot from this game. A Purdue loss and a Tennessee win could see the Boilermakers and Vols switching spots on the seed line. Iowa could possibly jump up one spot with a win, especially if Houston loses today.
Therefore, our final Bracketology prediction will go live only once the outcomes of the last two games are known. If both games are blowouts, we will go ahead and publish the final prediction before the games end. If either game is undecided until the closing minutes, then expect our final Bracketology to go live within 10 minutes of the final horn.
Coming Monday afternoon (Eastern Time Zone), our first installment of Bracketnomics for the 2022 NCAA Tournament will post here. This will be the explanation for how to go about picking your brackets using analytics that have been back-tested for maximum accuracy. We cannot guarantee you will win your bracket-picking contests, but we have a history of many of our subscribers doing that over the two decades this page has existed. And, you cannot beat the price of this information–only the time it takes you to read it.
There is one small warning for this year: Using the criteria we rely on, there is way too much parity in this forthcoming tournament. Usually, five to eight teams have Final Four worthy resumes. As of this morning, only two teams have such wonders. That means that two teams that do not have Final Four resumes are guaranteed to make this year’s Final Four. It also means that a team like Connecticut in both 2011 and 2014 might be poised to make a run to the National Championship Game, and it is a much higher probability that a Mid-Major makes the Final Four like Loyola, Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and George Mason have done in this Century and Indiana State and Penn did in 1979. If you are wondering when was the last time a team from outside of a power conference actually won the tournament, it was UNLV in 1990, 32 years ago. Gonzaga has come close twice, losing in the final game to North Carolina and to Baylor. Butler came within a final shot rolling on the rim and falling off of winning against Duke.
This shapes up to be a very exciting NCAA Tournament this year. There will be a lot of interesting story lines, so today, we are informing you that you probably feel a bit off. By Thursday morning, you just won’t be able to get up and going, and you will have to call in sick to work with a 48-hour bug, forcing you to take sick days on Thursday and Friday. Being self-employed or a member of sports media through the years, I was fortunate not to have to get Madness Fever.
Today’s Conference Tournament Schedule
All Times Eastern Daylight
12:00 PM on ESPN2: Ivy League Championship Game
Princeton vs. Yale
1:00 PM on ESPN: Southeastern Conference Championship Game
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
1:00 PM on CBS: Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game
Davidson vs. Richmond
3:15 PM on ESPN: Conference USA Championship Game
Houston vs. Memphis
3:30 PM on CBS: Big Ten Conference Championship Game
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