The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:43 am
Date3/13/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaOklahoma St.
3HoustonArkansasKansasTexas
4Florida St.PurdueWest VirginiaVirginia
5TennesseeCreightonColoradoVillanova
6OregonUSCTexas TechMissouri
7LSUOklahomaWisconsinClemson
8BYUFloridaLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
9RutgersSan Diego St.Virginia TechConnecticut
10St. BonaventureGeorgia TechVCUMaryland
11Wichita St.Michigan St.UCLALouisville
12Western Ky.WinthropSyracuseDrakeUtah St.Ole Miss
13UCSBLibertyUNCGColgate
14BuffaloMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.Grand CanyonOral RobertsDrexel
16IonaMount St. Mary’sAppalachian St.HartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

First Four Out–Alternates

69 Saint Louis

70 Colorado St.

71 Boise St.

72 Xavier

Potential Bubble Busters: Memphis. Georgetown, and Oregon St.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Team 1Team 2Spread
HartfordU Mass-Lowell3.4
Wichita St.Cincinnati3.9
HoustonMemphis6.4
Florida St.Georgia Tech3.7
Saint BonaventureVCU1.7
CreightonGeorgetown7.9
Eastern WashingtonMontana St.7.9
MichiganOhio St.4.0
IllinoisIowa0.2
TexasOklahoma St.1.1
UCSBUC-Irvine3.0
Western KentuckyNorth Texas-1.3
IonaFairfield7.4
BuffaloOhio3.5
Norfolk St.Morgan St.2.6
San Diego St.Utah St.2.3
ColoradoOregon St.9.1
ColgateLoyola (MD)12.2
AlabamaTennessee3.9
ArkansasLSU2.5
NichollsAbilene Christian-7.6
Prairie View A&MTexas Southern0.6
Grand CanyonNew Mexico St.1.7

Conference Tournaments Update

Saturday, March 13

Bids Awarded Today

America East: UMass-Lowell vs. Hartford

Atlantic 10: Saint Bonaventure vs/ VCU

Big East: Creighton vs. Georgetown (Hoyas would pop a bubble for the at-large field if they win)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington vs. Montana St.

Big 12: Texas vs. Oklahoma St.

Big West: UCSB vs. UC-Irvine

Conference USA: Western Kentucky vs. North Texas

Metro Atlantic: Fairfield vs. Iona

Mid-American: Buffalo vs. Ohio U

Mideastern Athletic: Norfolk St. vs. Morgan St.

Mountain West: San Diego St. vs. Utah St.

Pac-12: Colorado vs. Oregon St. (Beavers win would pop a bubble in the at-large field)

Southland: Nicholls vs. Abilene Christian

Southwestern Athletic: Prairie View A&M vs. Texas Southern

Western Athletic: Grand Canyon vs. New Mexico St.

America East Conference

Championship Game– 11 AM EST, ESPN2

6 U Mass-Lowell at 4 Hartford

American Athletic Conference

Semifinals @ Fort Worth, TX

1 Wichita St. vs. 5 Cincinnati 

2 Houston vs. 3 Memphis 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Championship Game, 8:30 PM EST. ESPN

2 Florida St. vs. 4 Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 Conference

Championship Game–Tomorrow, 1PM EDT, CBS @ Dayton, OH

1 Saint Bonaventure vs. 2 Virginia Commonwealth

Big East Conference

Championship Game, 6:30 PM EST FOX

2 Creighton vs. 8 Georgetown 

Big Sky Conference

Championship Game, 8 PM EST, ESPNU

2 Eastern Washington vs. 5 Montana St.

 

Big Ten Conference

Semfinals @ Indianapolis, IN

1 Michigan vs. 5 Ohio St.

2 Illinois vs. 3 Iowa 

Big 12 Conference

Championship Game, 6PM EST, ESPN

3 Texas vs. 5 Oklahoma St.

Big West Conference

Championship Game, 11:30 PM EST, ESPN2

1 UCSB vs. 2 UC-Irvine

Conference USA

Championship Game, 9PM EST, CBSSN

1E Western Kentucky vs. 3W North Texas

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 4 PM EST, ESPNU

7 Fairfield vs. 9 Iona

Mid-American Conference

Championship Game, 7:30 PM EST, ESPN2

2 Buffalo vs. 5 Ohio U

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 1PM EST, ESPN2

2N Norfolk St. vs. 3N Morgan St. 

Mountain West Conference

Championship Game, 6PM EST, CBS

1 San Diego St. vs. 2 Utah St.

Pac-12 Conference

Championship Game, 10:30 PM EST, ESPN

3 Colorado vs. 5 Oregon St.

Patriot League

Championship Game, Tomorrow, 12 PM EDT, CBSSN

9 Loyola (MD) at 2 Colgate

Southeastern Conference

Semifinals @ Nashville, TN

1 Alabama vs. 4 Tennessee

2 Arkansas vs. 3 LSU 

Southland Conference

Championship Game, 9:30 PM EST, ESPN2

1 Nicholls vs.2 Abilene Christian 

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 6PM EST, ESPNU

1 Prairie View A&M vs. 3 Texas Southern 

Western Athletic Conference

Championship Game, 10PM, ESPNU

1 Grand Canyon vs. 3 New Mexico St.

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 23-5

Winthrop 23-1

Loyola (Chi.) 24-4

Morehead St. 23-7

UNC-Greensboro 21-8

Appalachian St. 17-11

Drexel 12-7

Cleveland St. 19-7

Mount St. Mary’s 12-10

Oral Roberts 16-10

Gonzaga 26-0

March 11, 2021

A Quick Look At The Bubble

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:39 am

Thursday, March 11 Prior To Start of Today’s Games

It’s just a little more than 80 hours until the Selection Sunday bids are announced. We will have our final bracketology Sunday around 4 PM EST, unless there is a final tournament game that would affect the seeding.

As of this morning, here is our look at the teams in the gray area, on the bubble.

Let’s start with the teams that we believe are currently in the field if the bids were awarded today, but that are vulnerable to being bumped if other teams play their way into the field.

Louisville: The Cardinals lost in their first ACC Tournament game to fellow bubbler Duke. The Cardinals took a 6-spot dive in the Net Ratings after the loss, and they are in jeopardy of falling out of the tournament if a host of teams play their way in. At 13-7, they finished the season 4-6. UL won just one Quad 1 game, but they were 6-1 in Quad 2 games. Their chances of making the field are still about 85-90%, but they could find themselves playing that extra at-large play-in game.

Xavier: The Musketeers are in a much more precarious position following their immediate Big East Tournament ouster. Xavier fell to 62 in the Net, and they too finished 4-6 after starting 9-2. If a couple of teams still playing advance a couple rounds in their tournaments, it could be lights out for the Musketeers. Their chances of making the field are close to 50-50 today.

Drake: The Bulldogs lost to Loyola in the Arch Madness Championship Game to finish 23-4 with two losses to the Ramblers. A #45 Net with a 6-2 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, including one win over Loyola should be enough to keep Drake in a safe spot in this field. Their chances of making the field are about 95%.

Wichita St.: The Selection Committee does not compare teams within the same conference in theory, but when looking at each team’s resumes, they are basically forced to look at who they beat and didn’t beat, and obviously more games are played in-conference, especially this season. Wichita St. is rated behind Memphis in the Net, and their 13-4 record includes a 9-0 mark against Quad 3 & 4 teams. On the plus side, the Shockers finished 9-1 with a win over Houston. The Shockers need to make it to at least the semifinals of the AAC Tournament; a loss to the USF-Temple winner would really jeopardize their tournament hopes. On the good side, Wichita looks to have an express seeding to the AAC Championship Game, so we give them a better than 50-50 chance to Dance.

Syracuse: Yesterday’s pasting of potential Bubble team North Carolina St. has given the Orangemen a legitimate shot to make the field with an upset of Virginia today. SU is now at 39 in the Net. A 1-6 Quad 1 record is poor, but the 5-1 Quad 2 has the Orangemen in position to move into the at-large positive category with a win today. A loss to the Cavs would not totally eliminate SU, depending on what happens in other tournaments. We give SU a 55% chance of making the field. If they stay in the top 40 of the Net, they should get in.

Boise St.: The Mountain West Conference has four teams competing for bids. There might be three awarded. Boise State has 2 Quad 1 wins, and their Net is currently 43. A win over Nevada today is mandatory. If they get that win, then a decent showing against San Diego State tomorrow should be satisfactory. We give BSU a 55-60% chance of making the field.

Colorado St.: Wins at San Diego St. and at Utah St. had the Rams at the top of the MWC in January, but CSU has swooned since and is in danger of playing themselves out of the field. With a Net of 50, a quarterfinal round loss to Fresno St. today would be a dagger in their hearts or dancing shoes. The Rams must win today, and then they might have to beat the Utah St.-UNLV winner tomorrow. If they play USU, it could be an eliminator game.

UCLA: The Bruins are March Madness royalty. The humans on the Selection Committee will find a way to justify placing them in the Dance. A quarterfinal win in the Pac-12 Tournament would more than suffice along with their moving into the top 40 in the Net. UCLA has a 75-80% chance to make the field.

Michigan St.: The Spartans will be hurt if the Net Ratings prove to be as important as the first 16-team pre-selection made by the Committee a month ago. MSU is a low 67 in the Net, but they are coming off a win over 1-seed line Michigan and have 5 Quad 1 wins. The Big Ten schedule, along with a win at Duke, should be enough for Sparty to celebrate with a Dance ticket on Sunday. A win over Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament sets it in stone.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have work to do. They would not be in the field if the Selections were made today, but Ole Miss has a path to get in. They absolutely must defeat South Carolina today and then will have to upset LSU tomorrow to raise their Net of 53 up to the low 40’s at worst. Two wins over Missouri and one over Tennessee are not enough to warrant their selection. Their chances of making the Dance are around 30%.

Utah St.: The Aggies are just outside the Field today, but they swept San Diego State and have a resume ready to move them into the field with a win over UNLV today and then a win over Colorado State in a knockout game tomorrow. If they don’t win two games, they lose out.

SMU: The Mustangs need a lot of help to get in. Teams above them on this list have to play their way out of the field, and SMU needs to do damage in the AAC Tournament, maybe make it to the Championship Game against Houston (not Memphis). A 55 Net is too low to warrant a bid. Their chance to get in is about 20%.

Memphis: It’s awful that the only a desperation heave at the basket by an out of control Houston player could keep the Tigers out of the field. Memphis had a chance to move up into the 40’s in the Net and now sits at 52, which is not good enough. Memphis will have to make it to the Championship Game of the AAC Tournament and face Wichita State in that game to still have an at-large shot. More realistically, the Tigers may need to qualify automatically at this point.

Seton Hall & St. John’s: These two teams face off today in the Big East Tournament. The winner stays alive, while the loser can only think about NIT Selection. The winner still has work to do, maybe needing another tournament win, especially over top-seed Villanova. If Georgetown beats the Hoyas today, then the winner of the SH-SJ game must beat GU tomorrow. St. John’s might still need one more win after that.

Duke: The Eastern equivalent of UCLA, the Blue Devils are March Madness royalty. Like a heavyweight champion in a boxing match, if it goes 15 rounds, the champion will at the least win on a split decision. Duke will qualify for that split decision today if they beat Florida St. The Committee will invent the reason to leapfrog the Blue Devils over eight teams to get them in the Field. A loss today would make them 13-12 with a Net in the 50’s, so they need that win today.

Saint Louis: The Billikens were greatly harmed by a multiple-game cancellation in the regular season. Wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure in the regular season are not going to be enough, and SLU lost to the Bonnies in the A-10 Tournament. It’s not going to be a happy Sunday in the Gateway to the West.

March 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/5/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaMichiganBaylorIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaWest Virginia
3VillanovaKansasArkansasHouston
4PurdueFlorida St.TexasOklahoma St.
5Texas TechCreightonVirginiaUSC
6ColoradoOklahomaTennesseeWisconsin
7MissouriClemsonFloridaBYU
8OregonVirginia TechSan Diego St.LSU
9MarylandLoyola (Chi.)RutgersUCLA
10ConnecticutNorth CarolinaLouisvilleSt. Bonaventure
11Georgia TechVCUColorado St.Boise St.
12Western Ky.ToledoDrakeMichigan St.XavierWichita St.
13UCSBColgateBelmontWinthrop
14LibertyUNCGAbilene ChristianS. Dakota St.
15E. WashingtonSienaVermontCleveland St.
16Grand CanyonJames MadisonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewNorfolk St.

The Outside Looking In

69Saint Louis
70Seton Hall
71SMU
72Mississippi
73Syracuse
74Utah State
75Duke
76Stanford
77Indiana
78Louisiana Tech
79Memphis
80St. John’s

March 1, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:10 pm
Date3/1/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaMichiganBaylorIllinois
2IowaOhio St.AlabamaWest Virginia
3KansasHoustonVillanovaFlorida St.
4ArkansasVirginiaTexasCreighton
5USCOklahomaTexas TechTennessee
6PurdueOklahoma St.WisconsinClemson
7ColoradoFloridaMissouriBYU
8Virginia TechRutgersSan Diego St.LSU
9UCLAOregonMarylandLoyola (Chi.)
10North CarolinaLouisvilleConnecticutBoise St.
11VCUSt. BonaventureGeorgia TechColorado St.Xavier
12Western Ky.ColgateDrakeSeton HallWichita St.
13ToledoBelmontUCSBWinthrop
14Wright St.LibertyUNCGAbilene Christian
15Grand CanyonE. WashingtonSienaVermont
16S. Dakota St.James MadisonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewNorfolk St.

Play-In Games: 11-Seed: Colorado St. vs. Xavier / 12-Seed: Seton Hall vs. Wichita St.

16-Seed: Texas St. vs. Norfolk St. / 16-Seed: Wagner vs. Prairie View

First 8 Out

69Michigan St.
70Richmond
71Duke
72Saint Louis
73Indiana
74Stanford
75Utah St.
76SMU

February 26, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

2/26/2021

SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaIowa
3West VirginiaHoustonFlorida St.Oklahoma
4KansasCreightonTexasUSC
5VirginiaTennesseeWisconsinArkansas
6Texas TechPurdueColoradoClemson
7Oklahoma St.FloridaMissouriBYU
8RutgersVirginia TechLSULoyola (Chi.)
9UCLASan Diego St.OregonMaryland
10North CarolinaBoise St.LouisvilleDrake
11VCUSt. BonaventureColorado St.Connecticut
12ToledoWestern Ky.Seton HallXavierIndianaGeorgia Tech
13BelmontColgateWinthropUCSB
14Wright St.LibertyFurmanAbilene Christian
15IonaVermontE. WashingtonGrand Canyon
16James MadisonS. Dakota St.Texas St.Prairie ViewWagnerN.C. A&T

First 8 Out

69Michigan St.
70Wichita St.
71Stanford
72Duke
73Richmond
74Utah St.
75Minnesota
76Ole Miss

Conference Tournaments underway!

With March getting ready to come in like a lion, here’s a look at each of the conferences heading into conference tournament play.

One-Bid Leagues

America East: Maryland-Baltimore Co. & Vermont are tied at 10-4 in the league. The teams split a weekend series in Maryland. Vermont is the team more likely to contend in a #15 vs. #2 seed game in the NCAA Tournament.

Atlantic Sun: Liberty is 10-2 in the league but not as strong as last year’s team. Bellarmine is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament but will play in the A-Sun tournament. If they win, then Liberty gets the automatic bid. Lipscomb is 9-5 in the league and the hottest team of the contenders.

Big Sky: There will be many mid-major and low-major tournaments this year that should be wide open. This is one. Eastern Washington at 11-2 in conference play currently leads for the top seed, with Southern Utah (9-2) and Weber St. (10-3) vying for second place. Weber St. is probably the best of the three, but we wouldn’t be shocked if Montana (just 6-9 in the league) sneaks into the semifinals with a chance to win it from well back in the field.

Big South: Winthrop ran way with the league title and has lapped the field. At 17-1/20-1, the Eagles are contending for a #12 seed. If anybody else wins, it’s 16-seed almost for sure. Winthrop will be the biggest favorite to win their conference tournament, even more than Gonzaga.

Big West: UCSB will end UC-Irvine’s reign as regular season champions. The Gauchos (12-2/16-3) will still likely have to face either UCI (9-4/12-8) or UC Riverside (7-4/10-6) in the Big West Championship Game.

Colonial: It’s a down year in the CAA. In past years, four or five teams had the talent to do damage in a Round of 64 game. This year, we don’t see a win in the cards for this league. James Madison (8-1/13-5) and Northeastern (8-2/9-8) are the leading contenders for the automatic bid.

Conference USA: This is a conference with at least five teams talented enough to upset a higher seeded team in the Big Dance. Western Kentucky (8-2/15-5) has been at the top of the league all year. North Texas (8-2/12-6) and UAB (10-4/18-5) have been right there with the Hilltoppers. Louisiana Tech (10-4/17-6) and Marshall (6-4/12-5) are the hot contenders late in the season. Marshall may be the best of the bunch.

Horizon: This has been a two-team race like Easy Goer and Sunday Silence in past Triple Crown horse racing. Wright St. and Cleveland St. share the conference lead at 16-4. The only other team in the picture is Detroit at 10-6. WSU or CSU could win an opening round game in the Dance.

Metro Atlantic: This looks like a three-team race for the MAAC automatic bid. Siena (9-3) has led the league most of the season, with Monmouth (10-6) trailing. But, Iona (6-3) has started playing again after a long Covid layoff. They have an experienced tournament coach in New Rochelle; if you didn’t know, Rick Pitino is in charge, and the Gaels are the team to beat in our opinion. For declaration purposes, Monmouth coach King Rice is a friend of the PiRate Captain, and he’s rooting for the Hawks to fly high.

Mid-American: Of all the conference tournaments, this one historically has been the most exciting, because rarely has there been a clear-cut favorite. More teams from back in the pack have won this tourney in our memories than any other league. Toledo (13-3/18-6) has led the West all year with no competition, but the East looks like the 1967 American League pennant race. Akron (12-4/14-5) leads Ohio (9-3/13-6) only because of more games played. Kent St. (11-5/14-6) and Buffalo (9-5/11-7) are right there. Any of these five could win the lone bid, and then again, someone from back in the pack could do it again. Toledo could be a #12 seed if they win out.

Mideastern: This league has been really hit by Covid issues, with two teams choosing not to play and a third opting out in mid-season. North Carolina A&T (6-1) has been in first place all year. Norfolk St. (8-4) may be a little better come March. But, Morgan St. (6-4) is coming on strong and might be the true favorite to take the MEAC Tournament. The winner is looking squarely at a 16-seed play-in game.

Northeast: The NEC usually places their automatic qualifier in the Dayton play-in game for a 16-seed. The only difference this year, is the game will be played in the Hoosier State. Wagner (11-4) leads Bryant (9-4) with the rest of the field out of the race. Bryant might be the better team.

Ohio Valley: Belmont looked unbeatable in this league, until the Bruins went up to Eastern Kentucky and found out how tough the Colonels are on their home, even with no fans. Belmont (18-1/24-2) now must face an even tougher Morehead St. team (16-3 in the OViC) tomorrow. This league tournament is no longer just a rubber stamp for Belmont. The Morehead/EKU winner in a likely semifinal game will have a 40% chance of knocking out the Bruins.

Patriot: Colgate is in the top 20 of the NET ratings, the one data point that the NCAA Selection Committee places as the primary seeding factor. At 11-1 overall, all their games were played in the league. Four of those games came against Army, where the Raiders won three but lost once at home to the Black Knights. Colgate is an enigma. We don’t understand why they are rated so highly with no non-conference games, because the Patriot League is not highly-rated. Navy at 10-1/13-2 looks like a better team, and Army 6-6/10-7 already knows they can beat the heavy favorite. Colgate could be a 12-seed if they win out, and in this case, their 5-seed opponent will not be on upset alert.

Southern: This league has produced multiple bids in the past, but it won’t happen this year. There are five good but not great teams in contention, and the eventual winner will not be highly regarded as an upset special possibility. Furman (10-4/16-7) is methodically better than average but not flashy. They stay on an even keel with talent not quite as deep as the other contenders, but with more consistency. UNCG (12-5/17-8) plays a style of play that opponents don’t like to face, but when a team is solid handling the ball, the Spartans are not that hard to beat. Wofford (11-5/14-8) has been a snake in the tall grass, sneaking into the top of the league. East Tennessee St. (8-6/12-10) is a mere shell of its former self left by Steve Forbes, while Chattanooga (9-7/18-7) has been a major underperformer since New Year’s Day.

Southland: The potential seeding of this league took a big turn last week, when Stephen F. Austin decided to become ineligible this year rather than next year. What would have been an incredible 4-team scramble has lost one of its scramblers. Abilene Christian (11-1/19-3) is a team no Power Conference opponent wants to see in their bracket. The Wildcats are really tough on the defensive side of the ball, and a poor passing team can turn ACU into an efficient offensive puncher, because the Wildcats can intercept passes like the 1963 Chicago Bears! Sam Houston (11-2/17-7) and Nicholls (11-2/14-6) are the top contenders without SFA.

Summit: This should be another wide open conference tournament with four co-favorites. South Dakota (10-3/12-9), North Dakota St. (10-4/12-10), South Dakota St. (7-3/13-6) and Oral Roberts (8-5/11-10) are on close to equal terms at the end of February. We think SDSU is the favorite to win the tournament.

Sun Belt: This league is slowly falling in overall strength, and it is in danger of joining the NEC, MEAC, and SWAC in the annual play-in round for a 16-seed. Texas St. (10-3/16-6) has held the SBC lead for several weeks, but South Alabama (10-5/16-8), Louisiana (9-6/15-7), and Georgia St. (6-4/12-5) are lurking close behind. We like GSU from this group to win the conference tournament.

Southwestern: Covid may have helped this league a tad. The co-leaders, Prairie View (9-0/10-4) and Jackson St. (7-0/7-5) don’t play each other in the regular season. It could lead to a SWAC title game between two undefeated teams in conference play, making it one of the most exciting of the postseason. Texas Southern (6-3/9-8) is the dark horse.

Western: After the MEAC, the WAC has been next most affected by Covid issues. Technically, UT Rio Grande Valley leads the league today at 2-0 in the WAC and 9-4 overall. But, Grand Canyon (7-1/13-4) is two games ahead in the won-loss, even if UTRGV is 1.000 in percentage. Utah Valley is third at 6-3 in the WAC, but we wouldn’t rule out New Mexico St. (3-5/6-6). The Aggies not only couldn’t play home games, they couldn’t even return home during the shutdown of the Land of Enchantment. Chris Jans is the type of coach that can motivate and use the right strategy to win this tournament.

Multi-Bid Leagues

American: Houston is a lock, but the Cougars are in second place in the AAC to a Wichita St. team that beat them. WSU is likely to earn the top seed in the AAC Tournament, and the Shockers are on the Bubble and need a little more to add to their resume. Memphis has more than enough talent to win the tournament, but the Tigers don’t play cohesively.

Atlantic Coast: In the past, any team with a winning record in conference play was close to assured of earning a bid. Syracuse went 10-8 in 2017 and didn’t get a bid. This year, Florida St., Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Louisville, and Clemson are Dancing. Duke, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina St., in that order, are still in contention. We think the Seminoles are strong enough to advance past the Sweet 16.

Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure and VCU share the lead at 10-3, and the Bonnies and Rams are close to becoming locks for the Big Dance. Richmond, at 6-3, has been on the Bubble for most of the season. Saint Louis (4-4) has suffered the same fate as New Mexico State, missing weeks of scheduled games. The Billikens may be the best team in the league if they have completely dusted off the cobwebs in March.

Big 12: Undefeated Baylor probably won’t enter the Big 12 Tournament without a blemish. The Bears could even have two league losses. BU is still rusty from a long layoff, and they must play at Kansas, at West Virginia, and at home against Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech. This league is probably set in tournament teams. Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma St. should be in the field. TCU is too far back to sneak into the field without earning the automatic bid.

Big East: Villanova and Creighton are locks, while Seton Hall, Connecticut, and Xavier still have work to do before they are safely in the field. Xavier faces a must-win game at home against Creighton tomorrow.

Big Ten: This league is still in a state of flux. The teams that were close to being safe at the back of the field have done everything they could to play themselves out, while Michigan St., once given up for dead, has done everything to play themselves in.

As of today, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio St., Iowa, Wisconsin, and Purdue are locks. The Big Ten will probably get nine teams in the field. Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan St., Indiana, and Minnesota are competing for three bids. If Indiana or Minnesota fall short, there could be a coaching availability or two in the Big Ten in March.

Missouri Valley: With Wichita State relocated to the AAC, one would think the days of the venerable Valley earning multiple bids was over. Guess again. Drake and Loyola are close to sure things before Arch Madness starts in Saint Louis. There is even a scenario where if one of the two co-leaders loses in the semifinals of the conference tournament, and the other loses in the finals, that three teams could earn spots in the Field of 68.

Mountain West: How about four MWC teams in the Big Dance? San Diego St. is one of the hottest teams in the nation at the end of February. They’ve made a move like Whirlaway, swatting their long tail at the rest of the field as the Aztecs head to the finish line gaining distance from the place and show teams.

Boise St. and Colorado St. have tournament-worthy resumes, while Utah St. is now well back on the bad side of the Bubble. The Aggies need to win the conference tournament. Watch out for Steve Alford’s Nevada Wolfpack! Nevada has won four consecutive ga,es to move into fifth place.

Pac-12: What looked like a five-bid league has lessened to four bids and a prayer. USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado have done enough to win bids. Stanford has lost five of nine games, including two in a row to teams they needed to beat. The Cardinal need to win at USC next Wednesday, or they may be forced to win the Pac-12 Tournament to get in.

Southeastern: Don’t count out Kentucky just yet! The Wildcats (7-7/8-13) look like the team they were supposed to be. UK cannot earn an at-large bid with just three regular season games remaining, but once they get to Nashville, The Music City turns into the Bluegrass City. Calipari’s Cats can win four games in four days.

Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Florida, and Tennessee are in the field. Missouri was in for sure, but losses in four of their last five has created a shadow of doubt. Ole Miss has moved a half-game ahead of Mizzou in the league. The Tigers must close with Florida and LSU, while Ole Miss gets two games against last place Vanderbilt and a home game with Kentucky.

If there is a dark horse possibility in the SEC, then Georgia and Mississippi St. can stake claims to it. If Ole Miss and Missouri falter at the finish, the two Bulldogs can get into contention by winning out headed to Nashville.

West Coast: Gonzaga has yet to face any real competition. The Bulldogs look like the 1991 UNLV team that ran the table to the Final Four without opposition. Then, the Runnin’ Rebels ran into a Duke team that had not forgotten the 30+-point loss dealt to them in 1990’s Championship. The Bulldogs look like a potential run-the-table team, more like John Wooden’s UCLA teams than the 1991 UNLV team. Outside of the WCC, Gonzaga easily dismissed Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia. Normally, this would have been enough to show the nation that the Zags were without a doubt the best team in the nation. Had Baylor not cancelled their scheduled game, Gonzaga might be sitting with the appropriate strength of schedule typical of a national champion in our Bracketnomics criteria.

BYU is the other team with an NCAA Tournament guarantee. The Cougars have been distant number two to Gonzaga, but at 9-3/18-5, BYU has a win at San Diego St.

February 22, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/22/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganOhio St.
2IllinoisAlabamaVillanovaHouston
3IowaOklahomaWest VirginiaVirginia
4Florida St.KansasTexasTexas Tech
5TennesseeUSCCreightonPurdue
6WisconsinMissouriVirginia TechArkansas
7ClemsonOklahoma St.FloridaBYU
8RutgersColoradoLSUOregon
9UCLALoyola (Chi.)LouisvilleSan Diego St.
10Boise St.North CarolinaMarylandDrake
11Colorado St.IndianaSt. BonaventureSeton Hall
12Western Ky.BelmontVCUXavierGa. TechSyracuse
13UCSBWinthropToledoColgate
14UNCGStephen F. AustinLibertyWright St.
15South DakotaGrand CanyonIonaVermont
16E. WashingtonWagnerTexas St.James MadisonPrairie ViewN. C. A&T

February 18, 2021

The Sure Thing/The Contenders/The Still Alives

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:25 am

Who’s in the Big Dance? Who’s still in contention?

Today, we break down the projected NCAA Tournament field by conference.  The format will be teams that are locks to make the tournament; teams that would be safely in if the season ended today but a losing streak could jeopardize their safety; teams that would be on the good side of the bubble if the season ended today; teams that would be on the bad side of that bubble; and teams that are not in the conversation now but with a big winning streak could play their way into an at-large bid.

We won’t include the automatic bids, because the conference tournaments will do that for us.  Of course, this season, there could be some cancellations of these tournaments.  We’ll have to wait and see.

First, let’s look at the one-bid leagues.  As of today, we foresee 20 conferences receiving just one bid, but an upset in the conference tournament in one or two could lead to an extra bid from that league.

AMERICA EAST

The perpetual top contenders share the conference lead.  UMBC and Vermont are tied at 9-3 in conference play.  The two rivals face off in back-to-back games in Maryland tonight and tomorrow.  If one of these two teams earn the bid, they are probably looking at a #15 seed.

ATLANTIC SUN

Bellarmine has a one-game lead in the league race at 10-2, but the Knights are not yet eligible as a transitioning team to D1.  Liberty is in second place at 8-2, but this Flames team is not as strong as the last two editions.  The rest of the league is mediocre for a low-major conference.  Current sixth place Florida Gulf Coast is starting to put it together and could sneak up to the #2 seed by conference tournament time.

BIG SKY

This year’s race is as wide open as the real estate in the Near West.  Eastern Washington leads Southern Utah by 1 ½ games, but that is a Covid-scheduling issue, as SUU at 6-2 has played three fewer conference games.  The teams split back-to-back games at EWU a month ago.  This conference will hope to avoid a 16-seed play-in game.

BIG SOUTH

Winthrop has lapped the field.  The 15-1 Eagles lead second place Radford by 3 ½ games and most recently swept the Highlanders.  Winthrop is 18-1 overall and has a chance to earn an at-large bid should they not earn the automatic one.

BIG WEST

This has in recent years been the UC-Irvine show, as the Anteaters have dominated this league.  This year, UCI looks up at rival UCSB, as the 8-2 Gauchos have reeled off 10 consecutive victories.  Cal State Bakersfield is in a statistical tie with UC-Irvine for second place.  The Roadrunners venture to Santa Barbara to face UCSB twice this weekend.

COLONIAL

James Madison has risen from fourth place to first at 8-1, while the top contenders have all lost in recent games.  Fifth place Delaware and sixth place William & Mary are the other two conference teams with hot hands, but when the CAA holds its conference tournament, any of the top six could win the event.

CONFERENCE USA

With wins over Memphis and Alabama, one might think that Western Kentucky could earn an at-large bid if they could take the regular season CUSA title.  It is possible, but the 8-2 Hilltoppers may find it tough to get a lot of support this year with so few quality out of conference games.

WKU faces a tough doubleheader this weekend with 8-2 North Texas in Denton.  If either team sweeps, they become the sizable favorite to cop the league crown.  If they split, then Old Dominion, UAB, and Marshall all remain in contention to win the race in the final lap.

HORIZON LEAGUE

Wright St. and Cleveland St. are tied at 15-3 in the league and own four game leads over the next contender, Northern Kentucky.  Wright State has won nine games in a row since losing to CSU.  One of the top three should take the tournament title and the automatic bid.

METRO ATLANTIC

Covid has done a number on this league this year.  Monmouth has played 14 conference games and is 10-4.  Siena has played 10 conference games and is 8-2 to lead by percentage points over the Hawks.  Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels have played just seven conference games and they have lost two in a row to fall back to fifth place at 4-3.  Iona gets both of the two co-leaders in doubleheader games on their home floor in New Rochelle, including two with Monmouth this weekend, weather permitting.

MID-AMERICAN

Year in and year out, the MAC postseason tournament in Cleveland is one of the most exciting and unpredictable as any other.  We expect the same results this year.  Toledo has been leading the league race most of the season, and the Rockets are in first at 12-3, but 11-3 Akron and 10-4 Kent St. are coming on strong in February.  It doesn’t end there.  Ohio U and Buffalo, both at 7-4, and Bowling Green at 8-7 have played well enough in recent weeks to contend for the automatic bid.  If the MAC Tournament plays as scheduled, this is one that you will want to watch.

MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC

With three league teams opting out, scheduling has been an issue this year in the MEAC.  Usually, this league struggles to avoid the #16-seed play-in game, but more than once, the MEAC has produced an upset winner in the Round of 64.  North Carolina A&T leads the South Division with a perfect 4-0 conference record, but the Aggies have only played two conference games since January 3.  They had five games postponed.  

In the north, Norfolk St. 7-4, leads Morgan St. and Coppin St., both 6-4, by a half game.  NSU swept Morgan and split with Coppin, but their remaining regular season games have been cancelled.  If the MEAC Tournament is cancelled, N.C. A&T will almost assuredly be awarded the automatic bid and express trip to a 16-seed play-in game.

NORTHEAST

Merrimack sits in a first place tie with Wagner at 8-4, but the Warriors are still in the transition phase to D1 and not yet eligible for the Dance.  Wagner leads 6-4 Bryant by a game.  The Seahawks have won seven games in a row.  There are seven teams within two games of first in the NEC, so this should be an interesting conference tournament.

OHIO VALLEY

Belmont is 16-0 in the league and 22-1 overall, but the Bruins did not play any power conference teams like they usually do.  Still, because Belmont has been winning games by lopsided scores, they have a shot at an at-large bid should somebody shock them in the OVC Tournament.  Second place Morehead St., 13-3, lost at Belmont by 15, but they get the Bruins to close out the regular season in Morehead.

PATRIOT LEAGUE

The league was split into thirds this year to lessen travel.  Army and Navy are the only two teams to play out of conference games, so it will be close to impossible for the automatic winner to receive anything other than a 16-seed.  Navy is 8-1 in the league and 11-2 overall.  Their out of conference wins include a sweep of the DC teams, George Washington and Georgetown.  Should the Midshipmen run the table, they could move up to a 15-seed.

Colgate at 9-1 is the overall leader in the league, while Lafayette at 7-5 leads the three-team Central Division.  Bucknell has won four in a row to improve from 0-4 to 4-4, but all four games came at the expense of Lehigh.

SOUTHERN

The Socon has been worthy of multiple bids in past years, and there are four rather good teams this year, but this is not the year for two league teams to get bids.

UNC-Greensboro has been near the top for the last five years, but the Spartans have won the SoCon Tournament just once.  UNCG leads the league at 10-4 by a half-game over 10-5 Wofford.  Two years ago, Wofford destroyed Seton Hall in the opening round and scared Kentucky in the Round of 32 at the Big Dance.

Furman (8-4) and Chattanooga (9-5) have begun to play like legitimate contenders in the last two weeks.

SOUTHLAND

Five teams have taken over in February, and any of the five could win the conference tournament.  Even though Stephen F. Austin is in third place at the moment, their conference record is 9-1, and their one loss came at 10-1 Abilene Christian.  Sam Houston is also 10-1, and their lone loss came at SFA.  Nicholls is 9-2, which would lead most leagues, but in this one, it’s only good enough for fourth place.

SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC

The SWAC rates last in conference power, so the winner of this league will be in the 16-seed play-in round.  Prairie View and Jackson St. sport 6-0 league marks, with Texas Southern at 4-2.  The two co-leaders had both of their scheduled games against each other postponed, and they could both remain undefeated in conference play.

SUMMIT

It’s a good bet that the team representing the Summit League in the Big Dance will have the word “Dakota” in its name.  South Dakota St. (6-2), South Dakota (9-3), and North Dakota St. (9-3) are the top three in the league.  SDSU has a neutral site win over Utah St. and a narrow loss to West Virginia, so the Jackrabbits probably give this league its best chance to win a game in the Big Dance.

SUN BELT

This league has a lot of better than average but not great teams.  Texas St. leads the West Division at 9-3 with 7-5 Arkansas St. in second.  Both teams have four game winning streaks.  South Alabama leads the East Division at 8-5, and the Jags have reeled off six in a row.

WESTERN ATHLETIC

New Mexico St. has dominated this conference in recent years, but Covid has really done a number on the Aggies this year, and they have fallen to sixth place.  Perennial also-ran Grand Canyon has ascended to the top at 6-0 in the league and 12-3 overall.  The Antelopes own an eight-game winning streak with a 22.8 point scoring margin in that streak.

Multiple Bid Leagues

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Lock: Houston 11-2/17-2

Safe: —–

Good Bubble: —–

Bad Bubble: Wichita St. 8-2/12-4

In Contention: Memphis 8-3/12-6, SMU 7-4/11-4

Wichita St. could move to the Good Bubble with a win over Houston tonight.

ATLANTIC 10

Lock: —–

Safe: —–

Good Bubble:  VCU 9-2/16-4

Bad Bubble: St. Bonaventure 8-3/10-3, Saint Louis 4-2/11-3

In Contention: Davidson 6-2/10-5, Richmond 4-3/11-5

Wins over St. Bonaventure and Richmond have moved VCU into the field for now.

ATLANTIC COAST

Lock: Virginia 11-2/15-4, Florida St. 8-2/12-3

Safe: Virginia Tech 8-3/14-4, Louisville 6-3/11-4

Good Bubble: North Carolina 7-5/13-7, Clemson 7-5/13-5

Bad Bubble: Syracuse 6-5/12-6

In Contention: Duke 7-6/9-8, Georgia Tech 6-6/10-8

Duke was given up for dead in January, but the Blue Devils are far from dead.  Look out UVA!  You’re headed to an ambush as Cameron Indoor this weekend.

BIG 12

Lock: Baylor 9-0/17-0

Safe: Kansas 10-5/16-7, Oklahoma 8-4/13-5, Texas 7-4/13-5, West Virginia 7-4/14-6, Texas Tech 6-5/14-6, Oklahoma St. 7-6/14-6

Good Bubble: —–

Bad Bubble: —–

In Contention: TCU 4-6/11-8

This league is pretty much set in stone barring some unusual circumstance.  The top seven teams should receive bids, and even 7th place Oklahoma St. should be an 8 or 9-seed and safely in the field.

BIG EAST

Lock: Villanova 8-2/13-3, Creighton 12-4/16-5

Safe: —–

Good Bubble: Xavier 4-4/11-4, Seton Hall 10-5/13-8

Bad Bubble: Connecticut 7-5/10-5

In Contention: St. John’s 8-7/14-8

Madison Square Garden should be exciting if the Big East gets to hold their tournament this year.  St. John’s really needs three additional good wins in addition to not losing to a bad team.

BIG TEN

Lock: Michigan 9-1/14-1, Illinois 11-3/13-5, Ohio St. 11-4/17-4, Iowa 9-5/15-6

Safe: Wisconsin 9-6/15-7, Purdue 9-6/14-8

Good Bubble: Rutgers 8-7/12-7, Indiana 7-7/12-9

In Contention: Maryland 7-9/13-10, Minnesota 6-9/13-9, Michigan St. 4-9/10-9

Any Big Ten team that plays .500 ball in conference play will receive a bid this year, and we believe there is one more bid for the team that goes 9-11 (or 9-10 or 8-9 depending on missed games).  A couple of Big Ten coaches are on hot seats and on the Bubble.  Penn State will definitely have a new coach next year, but Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota could also be forced to make moves if they don’t get into the field.

MISSOURI VALLEY

Lock: —–

Safe: Loyola (Chi.) 14-2/19-4

Good Bubble: Drake 12-2/21-2

Bad Bubble: —–

In Contention: —–

After Wichita St. fled the Valley for the AAC, it was thought that the days of this league receiving two bids to the tournament were over.  Guess again.  Loyola of Chicago and Drake would both have to collapse to miss out on the Dance this year.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Lock: —–

Safe: San Diego St. 9-3/15-4

Good Bubble: Boise St. 13-3/17-4, Colorado St. 11-3/14-4, Utah St. 11-3/14-6

In Contention: Nevada  9-5/14-7

A win over UCLA makes SDSU safer than the other four contenders.  Boise St. finishes with Utah St. and two games against San Diego St.  A 3-0 finish would propel the Broncos into the Safe category.

PAC-12

Lock: USC 12-2/18-3

Safe: UCLA 10-3/14-5, Oregon 7-3/12-4

Good Bubble: —–

Bad Bubble: Colorado 10-5/16-6, Stanford 9-6/13-8

In Contention: Utah 6-7/9-8, Oregon St. 6-8/10-10

The former Conference of Champions has not earned one since Arizona cut the nets in 1997!  Only UCLA twice and Oregon once have made the Final Four since then (Utah made it before they joined the league).

SOUTHEASTERN

Lock: Alabama 12-1/17-5, Arkansas 9-4/17-5

Safe: Tennessee 8-5/15-5, LSU 8-4/13-6, Florida 6-5/10-6

Good Bubble: Missouri 6-6/13-6

Bad Bubble: Ole Miss 7-6/12-8

In Contention: Georgia 6-8/13-8

You don’t see Kentucky on this list.  They are out of contention for an at-large bid, but that doesn’t mean the Wildcats cannot win the conference tournament.  The two hot teams in this league are Arkansas and Ole Miss.  The Razorbacks probably have the best chance to make it past the Sweet 16 from this league.  Ole Miss needs a few more big wins to get into the field.

WEST COAST

Lock: Gonzaga 11-0/20-0

Safe: —–

Good Bubble: BYU 6-3/15-5

Bad Bubble: —–

In Contention: Saint Mary’s 2-4/11-6

We placed SMC in the “In Contention” section, because in theory, they could finish 6-4/15-6 in the regular season, which would include an upset of Gonzaga.  Short of that, the Gaels will be staying home this year.

Coming tomorrow–Updated ratings, updated bracketology, and our annual mid-major coaches ready for the big time list in three separate posts.

Coming soon–The PiRate Ratings have created a tabletop baseball strategy game more advanced than anything on the market.  It’s called “Sabertooth Baseball,” and look for more information about this next week!

February 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:30 pm
Date2/8/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorGonzagaMichiganVillanova
2HoustonOhio St.IllinoisMissouri
3VirginiaOklahomaTexas TechAlabama
4TexasIowaVirginia TechWest Virginia
5WisconsinTennesseeCreightonPurdue
6Florida St.Oklahoma St.FloridaUSC
7LouisvilleUCLAXavierRutgers
8OregonColoradoMinnesotaKansas
9ClemsonBYUNorth CarolinaDrake
10IndianaColorado St.San Diego St.St. Bonaventure
11ArkansasLoyola (Chi.)LSUStanford
12ToledoBelmontBoise St.ConnecticutUtah St.Richmond
13WinthropUNCGUABStephen F. Austin
14Texas St.South DakotaLibertySiena
15UC-IrvineCleveland St.Grand CanyonNavy
16UMBCNortheasternBryantSouthern UtahN. C. A&TPrairie View

Bubble

VCU
Seton Hall
Saint Louis
SMU
Maryland
St. John’s
Syracuse
Western Ky.

February 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 5, 2021

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:07 pm
Date2/5/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorGonzagaMichiganVillanova
2HoustonOhio St.TexasIowa
3AlabamaIllinoisVirginiaMissouri
4OklahomaTexas TechVirginia TechWisconsin
5TennesseeCreightonFlorida St.West Virginia
6FloridaUCLAPurdueOklahoma St.
7LouisvilleMinnesotaKansasUSC
8XavierColoradoRutgersOregon
9DrakeClemsonBYUBoise St.
10ConnecticutSt. BonaventureNorth CarolinaSan Diego St.
11Colorado St.LSUIndianaArkansas
12WinthropToledoLoyola (Chi.)RichmondStanfordUtah St.
13BelmontUNCGUABLouisiana
14Stephen F. AustinSouth DakotaLibertyUC-Irvine
15SienaGrand CanyonCleveland St.Vermont
16NavyNortheasternBryantMontana St.N. C. A&TPrairie View

Bubble
Maryland
Syracuse
Saint Louis
VCU
SMU
Duke
Seton Hall
Western Ky.

PiRate Ratings for 2/5/2021

RkTeamConf.Rating
1GonzagaWCC126.0
2BaylorB12124.4
3MichiganBTen119.1
4AlabamaSEC118.8
5IowaBTen118.4
6IllinoisBTen118.3
7HoustonAAC117.1
8Ohio St.BTen116.7
9VillanovaBE116.0
10TexasB12115.8
11WisconsinBTen115.4
12Texas TechB12115.1
13Florida St.ACC115.0
14Loyola ChicagoMVC114.9
15VirginiaACC114.8
16TennesseeSEC114.6
17CreightonBE114.5
18USCP12114.4
19ColoradoP12114.1
20West VirginiaB12114.0
21OklahomaB12114.0
22ArkansasSEC113.9
23KansasB12113.7
24RutgersBTen113.3
25PurdueBTen113.3
26FloridaSEC113.2
27San Diego St.MWC113.1
28DukeACC112.6
29IndianaBTen112.5
30MissouriSEC112.5
31Penn St.BTen112.3
32Oklahoma St.B12112.2
33ConnecticutBE111.9
34LSUSEC111.8
35LouisvilleACC111.8
36MinnesotaBTen111.7
37Virginia TechACC111.7
38OregonP12111.7
39North CarolinaACC111.7
40BYUWCC111.7
41ArizonaP12111.7
42UCLAP12111.6
43Seton HallBE111.6
44MemphisAAC111.4
45StanfordP12111.3
46XavierBE111.1
47SyracuseACC111.1
48Utah St.MWC111.1
49MarylandBTen111.0
50St. BonaventureA10110.6
51Saint LouisA10110.5
52AuburnSEC110.5
53RichmondA10110.5
54DrakeMVC110.4
55VCUA10110.4
56ToledoMAC110.2
57KentuckySEC110.1
58Boise St.MWC109.9
59SMUAAC109.8
60ClemsonACC109.7
61Georgia TechACC109.7
62Michigan St.BTen109.6
63Wright St.Hor109.2
64St. John’sBE109.1
65Notre DameACC109.1
66Rhode IslandA10108.8
67UtahP12108.7
68Colorado St.MWC108.7
69MississippiSEC108.7
70DavidsonA10108.5
71South CarolinaSEC108.3
72Mississippi St.SEC108.0
73N.C. StateACC108.0
74NorthwesternBTen108.0
75MarshallCUSA107.9
76ProvidenceBE107.8
77Arizona St.P12107.6
78PittsburghACC107.5
79MarquetteBE107.5
80Wichita St.AAC107.2
81San FranciscoWCC107.2
82Saint Mary’sWCC107.0
83DaytonA10106.8
84CincinnatiAAC106.7
85Western KentuckyCUSA106.7
86GeorgiaSEC106.4
87UC Santa BarbaraBW106.2
88BelmontOVC106.1
89North TexasCUSA106.1
90TulsaAAC106.0
91FurmanSou105.9
92UABCUSA105.6
93Kent St.MAC105.4
94GeorgetownBE105.3
95TCUB12105.3
96Boston CollegeACC105.2
97BuffaloMAC105.1
98DuquesneA10105.0
99ColgatePat104.9
100South Dakota St.Sum104.9
101NevadaMWC104.8
102ButlerBE104.7
103Abilene ChristianSthlnd104.7
104VermontAE104.7
105AkronMAC104.6
106DePaulBE104.5
107South FloridaAAC104.5
108UNC GreensboroSou104.5
109Louisiana TechCUSA104.4
110MassachusettsA10104.2
111LibertyASun104.2
112OhioMAC104.1
113UCFAAC104.1
114Washington St.P12103.8
115WinthropBSou103.7
116UC IrvineBW103.7
117Oregon St.P12103.5
118Miami FLACC103.5
119Wake ForestACC103.5
120Loyola MarymountWCC103.4
121Grand CanyonWAC103.3
122NebraskaBTen103.3
123Texas A&MSEC102.9
124BradleyMVC102.9
125PepperdineWCC102.8
126PacificWCC102.8
127East Tennessee St.Sou102.7
128Iowa St.B12102.5
129Missouri St.MVC102.5
130VanderbiltSEC102.4
131Indiana St.MVC102.4
132UC RiversideBW102.4
133Georgia St.SB102.4
134East CarolinaAAC102.3
135WoffordSou102.3
136New Mexico St.WAC102.1
137Eastern WashingtonBSky102.1
138SienaMAAC101.5
139UNLVMWC101.4
140Santa ClaraWCC101.2
141Northern IowaMVC101.2
142Bowling GreenMAC101.1
143TempleAAC101.0
144Old DominionCUSA101.0
145George MasonA10101.0
146Cal St. BakersfieldBW100.9
147CaliforniaP12100.8
148Morehead St.OVC100.8
149NortheasternCAA100.7
150North Dakota St.Sum100.6
151Murray St.OVC100.5
152Coastal CarolinaSB100.4
153DrexelCAA100.3
154HofstraCAA100.3
155Texas St.SB100.3
156MercerSou100.2
157Stephen F. AustinSthlnd100.2
158WashingtonP12100.1
159South DakotaSum100.1
160Miami OHMAC99.9
161La SalleA1099.9
162NavyPat99.9
163Saint Peter’sMAAC99.9
164MonmouthMAAC99.8
165Little RockSB99.7
166CharlotteCUSA99.6
167LouisianaSB99.6
168Weber St.BSky99.6
169Cleveland St.Hor99.6
170UTEPCUSA99.6
171Eastern KentuckyOVC99.4
172MontanaBSky99.3
173Ball St.MAC99.1
174ArmyPat99.1
175James MadisonCAA98.9
176TulaneAAC98.9
177UMBCAE98.7
178DetroitHor98.6
179Oral RobertsSum98.5
180ChattanoogaSou98.5
181Florida AtlanticCUSA98.5
182VMISou98.4
183Austin PeayOVC98.0
184Montana St.BSky97.9
185Fresno St.MWC97.9
186Appalachian St.SB97.9
187WyomingMWC97.9
188San DiegoWCC97.8
189Kansas St.B1297.7
190Sam Houston St.Sthlnd97.7
191BryantNEC97.7
192Jacksonville St.OVC97.5
193Southern UtahBSky97.5
194Nicholls St.Sthlnd97.4
195Southern IllinoisMVC97.4
196BellarmineASun97.4
197RadfordBSou97.4
198HawaiiBW97.4
199RiceCUSA97.3
200George WashingtonA1097.1
201Gardner WebbBSou97.0
202UT ArlingtonSB96.8
203IonaMAAC96.8
204DelawareCAA96.8
205OaklandHor96.8
206UNC WilmingtonCAA96.7
207LafayettePat96.6
208CharlestonCAA96.6
209UTSACUSA96.6
210LipscombASun96.5
211UC DavisBW96.5
212South AlabamaSB96.4
213Saint Joseph’sA1096.4
214UMKCSum96.3
215UNC AshevilleBSou96.1
216FIUCUSA96.1
217UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC96.1
218MilwaukeeHor96.0
219UC San DiegoBW95.9
220StetsonASun95.9
221HartfordAE95.9
222ValparaisoMVC95.9
223AlbanyAE95.9
224NiagaraMAAC95.8
225UMass LowellAE95.8
226Sacramento St.BSky95.8
227Mount St. Mary’sNEC95.8
228Northern KentuckyHor95.8
229Northern ColoradoBSky95.7
230EvansvilleMVC95.7
231Prairie View A&MSWAC95.7
232Illinois ChicagoHor95.6
233Stony BrookAE95.4
234CanisiusMAAC95.3
235Illinois St.MVC95.3
236Texas SouthernSWAC95.3
237Norfolk St.MEAC95.2
238Western CarolinaSou95.1
239Southern MissCUSA95.0
240NJITAE95.0
241Green BayHor95.0
242BucknellPat94.8
243AmericanPat94.8
244Youngstown St.Hor94.7
245Morgan St.MEAC94.6
246Utah ValleyWAC94.5
247Boston UniversityPat94.3
248FordhamA1094.3
249North AlabamaASun94.3
250LIUNEC94.3
251Central MichiganMAC94.2
252WagnerNEC94.2
253Eastern MichiganMAC94.2
254LongwoodBSou94.2
255Western MichiganMAC94.0
256Loyola MDPat94.0
257SamfordSou94.0
258ElonCAA93.9
259William & MaryCAA93.8
260Purdue Fort WayneHor93.8
261Robert MorrisHor93.8
262Georgia SouthernSB93.8
263TowsonCAA93.8
264MaristMAAC93.7
265TroySB93.7
266New MexicoMWC93.6
267North Carolina CentralMEAC93.5
268New HampshireAE93.4
269CampbellBSou93.4
270Arkansas St.SB93.4
271QuinnipiacMAAC93.4
272High PointBSou93.4
273Cal BaptistWAC93.3
274Middle TennesseeCUSA93.3
275SouthernSWAC93.1
276Idaho St.BSky93.1
277North FloridaASun93.0
278Cal St. FullertonBW92.8
279Florida Gulf CoastASun92.8
280Portland St.BSky92.8
281Long Beach St.BW92.7
282SeattleWAC92.5
283Fairleigh DickinsonNEC92.5
284Nebraska OmahaSum92.4
285Southeast Missouri St.OVC92.3
286St. Francis PANEC92.3
287MerrimackNEC92.2
288Jackson St.SWAC92.2
289Florida A&MMEAC92.2
290The CitadelSou92.0
291IUPUIHor91.9
292JacksonvilleASun91.9
293Cal St. NorthridgeBW91.8
294ManhattanMAAC91.7
295RiderMAAC91.7
296SIU EdwardsvilleOVC91.6
297North Carolina A&TMEAC91.4
298St. Francis NYNEC91.3
299Northern IllinoisMAC91.3
300Louisiana MonroeSB91.3
301USC UpstateBSou91.2
302Central ArkansasSthlnd91.1
303HowardMEAC91.0
304Sacred HeartNEC91.0
305Air ForceMWC90.9
306North DakotaSum90.9
307Northern ArizonaBSky90.8
308Northwestern St.Sthlnd90.8
309Tarleton St.WAC90.7
310HamptonBSou90.6
311New OrleansSthlnd90.6
312Eastern IllinoisOVC90.5
313Tennessee St.OVC90.3
314San Jose St.MWC90.2
315Tennessee TechOVC89.9
316FairfieldMAAC89.9
317Incarnate WordSthlnd89.8
318Western IllinoisSum89.8
319LehighPat89.8
320PortlandWCC89.7
321Grambling St.SWAC89.7
322PresbyterianBSou89.5
323Southeastern LouisianaSthlnd89.4
324Central ConnecticutNEC89.4
325Coppin St.MEAC89.1
326Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSthlnd88.6
327LamarSthlnd88.6
328Houston BaptistSthlnd88.4
329Dixie St.WAC88.3
330MaineAE88.1
331Alabama A&MSWAC88.1
332BinghamtonAE88.0
333Holy CrossPat87.9
334Charleston SouthernBSou87.5
335DenverSum87.4
336Cal PolyBW87.2
337Alcorn St.SWAC87.1
338McNeese St.Sthlnd86.7
339Kennesaw St.ASun85.7
340Tennessee MartinOVC85.6
341IdahoBSky84.6
342Alabama St.SWAC83.1
343Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC83.1
344Delaware St.MEAC82.4
345South Carolina St.MEAC81.3
346Chicago St.WAC80.3
347Mississippi Valley St.SWAC70.7

Note–Full ratings and predictions on some games commence next week.

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