In the first decade of the 21st Century, the Mountain West Conference was without a doubt the best of the non power leagues. Slowly, some of the best programs left the league. Utah went to the Pac-12; TCU left for the Big 12; Brigham Young copied the Notre Dame formula and went independent in football, while joining the West Coast Conference in other sports. Boise State joined when BYU left, but the Broncos’ best teams were in the old Western Athletic Conference.
You can see this league beginning to reload. Boise State has begun to recruit like they did in Chris Peterson’s era at the Field of Blue. Under former Cal coach Jeff Tedford, Fresno State has returned to prominence. Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, Hawaii, and Nevada have gotten a bit stronger in recent years. Air Force has been down in the last couple of years, but the Falcons have the experience to rebound this year.
With the new strength in so many locations, the unfortunate reality is that it is highly unlikely that any one team will dominate the others and make a run for the New Year’s Six Bowl that goes to the top-rated Group of Five Conference team.
Both divisions should see competitive races this year, and when November comes, at least five teams should still have a legitimate chance to make the conference championship game.
Here is how the Mountain West Conference media voted in the preseason poll
| Mountain West Conference Media Poll | |||
| Mountain Division | |||
| Pos. | Team | 1st Place Votes | Overall Votes |
| 1 | Boise St. | 15 | 120 |
| 2 | Utah St. | 6 | 108 |
| 3 | Air Force | 0 | 73 |
| 4 | Wyoming | 0 | 66 |
| 5 | Colorado St. | 0 | 52 |
| 6 | New Mexico | 0 | 22 |
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| West Division | |||
| Pos. | Team | 1st Place Votes | Overall Votes |
| 1 | Fresno St. | 17 | 122 |
| 2 | San Diego St. | 3 | 106 |
| 3 | Nevada | 0 | 74 |
| 4 | Hawaii | 1 | 67 |
| 5 | UNLV | 0 | 51 |
| 6 | San Jose St. | 0 | 21 |
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| Championship Game Winner | |||
| None Chosen | |||
The PiRate Ratings offer a little bit of a variation from the Media Poll.
| Preseason PiRate Ratings–Mountain West | ||||
| Mountain Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Utah St. | 105.4 | 104.3 | 106.8 | 105.5 |
| Boise St. | 105.0 | 104.3 | 105.3 | 104.9 |
| Air Force | 96.5 | 98.0 | 97.3 | 97.3 |
| Wyoming | 94.4 | 96.6 | 95.2 | 95.4 |
| New Mexico | 83.0 | 86.3 | 82.4 | 83.9 |
| Colorado St. | 79.2 | 84.2 | 79.3 | 80.9 |
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| West Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Fresno St. | 99.8 | 100.2 | 100.6 | 100.2 |
| Hawaii | 95.5 | 97.7 | 94.8 | 96.0 |
| San Diego St. | 94.4 | 96.2 | 94.1 | 94.9 |
| Nevada | 92.9 | 93.9 | 92.5 | 93.1 |
| U N L V | 85.8 | 88.9 | 85.9 | 86.9 |
| San Jose St. | 83.6 | 86.0 | 82.7 | 84.1 |
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| MWC Averages | 93.0 | 94.7 | 93.1 | 93.6 |
Note: These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.
Predicted Won-Loss Records
The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt. Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams. For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.
If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.
What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings. These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%. The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.
| PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss | |||
| Mountain Division | |||
| Pos | Team | Conference | Overall |
| 1 | Utah St. | 7-1 | 10-3* |
| 2 | Boise St. | 7-1 | 9-3 |
| 3 | Air Force | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| 4 | Wyoming | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| 5 | New Mexico | 1-7 | 3-9 |
| 6 | Colorado St. | 0-8 | 1-11 |
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| West Division | |||
| Pos | Team | Conference | Overall |
| 1 | Hawaii | 6-2 | 9-5 |
| 2 | Fresno St. | 6-2 | 8-4 |
| 3 | San Diego St. | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| 4 | Nevada | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| 5 | UNLV | 2-6 | 3-9 |
| 6 | San Jose St. | 1-7 | 2-10 |
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Utah State picked to win MWC Championship Game |
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| Bowl Predictions | |
| Las Vegas | Utah St. |
| Arizona | Fresno St. |
| Armed Forces | Boise St. |
| Idaho Potato | Air Force |
| New Mexico | San Diego St. |
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| Alternate Bowl | |
| Cheez-it | Hawaii |
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| Also Bowl Eligible | |
| Nevada | |
| Wyoming |
Coaches That Could Move to Power 5 Conferences
Bryan Harsin, Boise St.
Craig Bohl, Wyoming
Nick Rolovich, Hawaii
Jay Norvell, Nevada
Coaches On The Hot Seat
Mike Bobo, Colorado St.
Bob Davie, New Mexico
Brent Brennan, San Jose St.
Tony Sanchez, UNLV
Top Quarterbacks
Jordan Love, Utah St.
Cole McDonald, Hawaii
Armani Rogers, UNLV
Best Offense
Utah St.
Boise St.
Hawaii
Best Defense
Utah St.
Boise St.
Fresno St.
Coming Tomorrow: The FBS Independents, including Notre Dame and BYU.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 