PiRate Ratings Week Seven NFL Previews: October 19 & 20, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Seven

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that a rating of 100 is average.

 

Current NFL Standings (listed alphabetically by divisions)
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Dallas		4	–	2	–	0	175	141	109.00	105.04	104.68	2
New York		4	–	1	–	0	141	84	101.74	103.65	104.75	2
Philadelphia		3	–	3	–	0	167	123	109.19	104.82	103.47	2
Washington		4	–	2	–	0	126	117	108.60	102.77	104.14	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		3	–	3	–	0	148	109	109.63	104.18	102.83	2
Detroit		0	–	5	–	0	76	159	84.05	89.24	88.13	3
Green Bay		3	–	3	–	0	160	145	104.53	100.84	101.14	2
Minnesota		3	–	3	–	0	113	119	106.16	100.20	101.34	2
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Atlanta		4	–	2	–	0	139	127	99.42	99.71	101.70	2
Carolina		4	–	2	–	0	117	97	104.05	102.40	103.16	2
New Orleans		3	–	3	–	0	172	133	110.04	103.29	105.74	2
Tampa Bay		4	–	2	–	0	141	97	112.13	106.03	105.50	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		4	–	2	–	0	177	144	105.29	103.24	105.38	3
St. Louis		1	–	4	–	0	62	164	76.28	89.46	88.42	2
San Francisco		2	–	4	–	0	141	167	90.14	93.84	95.67	3
Seattle		1	–	4	–	0	100	151	80.53	92.71	92.32	3
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Buffalo		4	–	1	–	0	126	104	94.82	99.48	100.73	3
Miami		2	–	3	–	0	107	103	102.46	99.80	99.32	2
New England		3	–	2	–	0	89	109	90.70	99.55	98.12	2
New York		3	–	2	–	0	141	130	103.58	101.22	103.43	2
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Baltimore		2	–	3	–	0	78	87	100.87	99.20	98.88	3
Cincinnati		0	–	6	–	0	88	144	95.15	95.12	95.73	2
Cleveland		2	–	3	–	0	81	92	100.23	100.22	98.96	2
Pittsburgh		4	–	1	–	0	103	79	106.66	104.77	105.35	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Houston		1	–	4	–	0	112	158	97.37	97.52	96.65	3
Indianapolis		3	–	2	–	0	114	97	107.12	104.22	104.74	2
Jacksonville		3	–	3	–	0	124	128	102.44	102.15	102.19	3
Tennessee		5	–	0	–	0	115	56	112.04	107.20	108.72	2
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		4	–	2	–	0	166	154	101.37	99.54	100.85	2
Kansas City		1	–	4	–	0	65	131	83.12	90.67	91.23	2
Oakland		1	–	4	–	0	81	135	85.43	93.10	92.18	2
San Diego		3	–	3	–	0	178	139	105.92	104.82	105.22	2

 

NFL Previews-Week Six

 

San Diego (3-3) at Buffalo (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         San Diego by 8 

Mean:           San Diego by 2

Bias:             San Diego by 1

Vegas:        Buffalo by 1 -115/+115

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo +9 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +12 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo -1

 

Buffalo had a week off after the embarrassing loss at Arizona.  San Diego won a big primetime game over New England Sunday night and must now travel 2,700 miles across three time zones.

 

I am not sold on the Bills even at 4-1, and I think the Chargers have the talent to overcome the obstacles in this game.  I’m going with the Bills in the teasers because I still think they have a little better than 50% chance of winning this one.  Even if San Diego wins, I don’t see it being by more than a touchdown. 

 

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Cincinnati (0-6)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light or no wind, temperature rising from the low to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 10     

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 8

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 8

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 9½     -420/+380

Ov/Un:        35½

Strategy:     Cincinnati +9½, Cincinnati +19½ in 10-point teaser, Cincinnati +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 25½ in 10-point teaser, Over 22½ in 13-point teaser

 

It doesn’t take a Harvard graduate to realize the Bengals are much weaker without quarterback Carson Palmer running their offense, but it may take more than a Harvard grad to beat the Steelers.

 

On paper, Pittsburgh should win this game with relative ease.  At Paul Brown Stadium, the Bengals make this game much closer than it should be.  Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Cincinnati has enough talent to keep this one close.  Pittsburgh is the type of team that when they win road games, it is by less than a touchdown.

 

Cincinnati’s players may be ready to throw in the towel on the season, but it won’t happen this week against the perennial bullies of their division.  Expect a stellar performance from the Bengals, and thus this will not be an easy Steeler win.  I might consider the Bengals straight up on this one, but I prefer the striped helmets in the teasers.  I like teasing the Over here, as 23 or 26 points is not asking much.

 

Minnesota (3-3) at Chicago (3-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Clouds increasing during the day, moderate winds, temperature in the mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 5     

Mean:           Chicago by 6

Bias:             Chicago by 3

Vegas:        Chicago by 3      -175/+155

Ov/Un:        37½

Strategy:     Chicago +7 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +10 in 13-point teaser, Under 47½ in 10-point teaser, Under 50½ in 13-point teaser 

 

This one could be the game of the week.  To the winner could go sole possession of first place in the division.  Both teams have quite exploitable weaknesses, but the Vikings seem to have less of them.  I expect this game to develop into an old fashioned guts and glory affair right out of the 1960’s.  I expect the two teams to shorten this game with around 120 plays from scrimmage.  I could see both teams failing to gain 300 total yards, and I could see the winner scoring no more than 17 points. 

 

Chicago has played just two home games, and those came against two teams better than the Vikings.  On the other hand, Minnesota is a better team today than the one that took the field against Green Bay in week one. 

 

If your opinion that a low scoring game will take place, it goes without saying that you would like your chances that the spread will be less than a touchdown.  Thus, getting the Bears at home and getting a touchdown or even 10 points becomes a favorable situation.  Additionally, if you think a game could end with a 17-13 score, then teasing the Under when that total moves to 47½ or 50½ points is something you would jump on.

 

Tennessee (5-0) at Kansas City (1-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly sunny and quite windy, with a temperature in the upper 60’s to near 70

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 27     

Mean:           Tennessee by 15

Bias:             Tennessee by 15

Vegas:        Tennessee by 9        -330/+300

Ov/Un:        35

Strategy:     Kansas City +19 in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +22 in 10-point teaser, Over 25 in 10-point teaser, Over 22 in 13-point teaser, Kansas City +9

 

Both teams had the week off, and still the Titans have issues at wide receiver.  Kansas City has issues at running back, where Larry Johnson has been suspended.  However, Brodie Croyle should be ready to go.

 

Kansas City’s lone win was over a then undefeated Denver team.  They have a fair chance of getting upset number two this week.  The Titans are a much better home team than they are a road team.  Their two road trips have been to Cincinnati and Baltimore.  The Bengals offered little competition, whereas the Ravens outplayed Tennessee.  The Chiefs are weaker than Baltimore but stronger than the Bengals were when the Titans beat them.

 

I give Kansas City a 35% chance of pulling off the upset, and a 75% chance of losing by a touchdown or less.

 

This is one game where I would consider the underdog straight up, but I really like the Chiefs in the teasers.  I just cannot imagine a scenario where the Titans could win this game by 20 points, especially with Justin McCareins and Justin Gage ailing.  Tennessee will try to run the ball 60% of the time, and the Chiefs will be ready.  Kansas City will pass the ball more than normal, and this gives them a fighting chance this week.  Rarely if ever would I consider keying one game in multiple teasers, but this might be one week where I would do it with this game. 

 

New Orleans (3-3) at Carolina (4-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid 60’s

 

PiRate:         New Orleans by 4    

Mean:           Carolina by 1

Bias:             New Orleans by 1

Vegas:         Carolina by 3            -155/+135

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser, New Orleans +13 in 10-point teaser, New Orleans +16 in 13-point teaser

 

This game provides me with what I think is a strong play.  These two teams know how to score points.  I think the totals line is a little low because the Saints held Oakland to a field goal last week while the Panthers laid an egg in Tampa. 

 

New Orleans has consistently scored between 24 and 34 points this year, while Carolina has averaged 26 points per game at home.  The Panthers rebounded from their first loss at Minnesota with a great game against Atlanta.  I expect another turnaround effort this week.  I’m looking for the winner of this game to score 28 to 35 points and prevail by a touchdown or less.

 

I like taking the Saints in the teasers because if they score their usual 24-34 points in this one, look how much Carolina will have to score to beat us.

 

San Francisco (2-4) at New York Giants (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid to upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Giants by 14     

Mean:           Giants by 12

Bias:             Giants by 11

Vegas:        Giants by 10½          -430/+390

Ov/Un:        46½

Strategy:     Giants -½ in 10-point teaser, Giants +2½ in 13-point teaser, Under 56½ in 10-point teaser, Under 59½ in 13-point teaser, Giants -430   

 

Just how much did last week’s blown game to the Eagles take out of the 49ers?  We may know the answer this week.  San Francisco was on its way to a 3-3 record to stay in the playoff hunt before mistake after mistake allowed the Eagles to score 23 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.  Blowing a nine point league in less than a full quarter is inexcusable when you are at home playing a team that has traveled across the country and is missing one of its top offensive weapons.

 

Coach Mike Nolan is now on thin ice, and it doesn’t bode well that he must take his team to the East Coast to play a mad bunch of Giants.  The defending Super Bowl champs were embarrassed on national TV Monday night, and they will be ready to play this week.

 

I don’t like taking the Giants and having to give 10½ points, as this could be one of those games where New York chooses to grind it out on the ground and consume the clock much like Jacksonville.  They could dominate for 60 minutes and still win by a score of 21-12.  So, give me the teaser plays in this one.  San Francisco would have to win outright to beat me.  I usually don’t like playing a money line where a loss could cripple the chances of a winning week overall, but the Giants should probably be listed at -600.   

 

Baltimore (2-3) at Miami (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers, considerable winds, temperature in the low 80’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 4 

Mean:           Miami by 3

Bias:             Miami by 2

Vegas:        Miami by 3         -140/+120

Ov/Un:        36½

Strategy:     Baltimore +13 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 10-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser 

 

This game is a playoff eliminator.  The winner moves to 3-3 to stay alive in the playoff chase, while the loser more than likely is headed to a 6-10 record or worse.  Baltimore has dropped three in a row after winning their first two, while Miami has been playing like a team with a chance to go 8-8.

 

I don’t really like any of the possibilities in this game, as I could see a variety of scenarios playing out this week.  Just one or two plays early in this game could change the outcome completely.

 

How will the Dolphins’ single wing package perform against a Ravens’ defense that could stop it completely?  Can Dan Henning come up with the right strategy to exploit Ray Lewis in company?

 

Baltimore has done absolutely nothing on offense the past two weeks, and the Dolphins have already held much better offenses under 14 points.

 

With so many tossup games this week, you might see a pattern in my selections.  Go with the underdog in a teaser, since it allows you to in essence get a few extra points in your favor without having to rely on your pick pulling off a mild upset.

 

Teasing the Over is still a slight risk in this one, as I included it only as a last pick to fill out a parlay.  One big play on special teams or one big turnover could allow the total to hit 30 points.

 

Dallas (4-2) at St. Louis (1-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Dallas by 31      

Mean:           Dallas by 14

Bias:             Dallas by 14

Vegas:        Dallas by 7         (no money line)

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     Leave this one alone, unless you know for sure the status of Tony Romo.  If he doesn’t play, then teasing the Under at 54 & 57 looks good  

 

Tony Romo is actually going to try to play with a broken finger on his throwing hand.  I would leave this game alone.  It could be a ruse by the Cowboys to try to take the heat off Brad Johnson.  The only logical play here is to tease the Under, because Dallas could beat the Rams with Marion Barber at quarterback.  If Romo plays, I don’t expect Dallas to throw the ball more than 20-25 times.  If Johnson has to go, I expect a similar strategy.

 

Marc Bulger didn’t have much luck against Dallas last year, but I expect him to fare a little better this season.  It could allow the Rams to keep it close for a long time, but seven points is too tricky to play either way.  My advice is to forget this game; there are better options available.

 

Detroit (0-5) at Houston (1-4)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light winds, temperature around 80 (all 2008 games at Reliant Stadium are now outdoors)

 

PiRate:         Houston by 16  

Mean:           Houston by 8

Bias:             Houston by 12

Vegas:        Houston by 9½        -400/+360

Ov/Un:        46½

Strategy:     Houston +½ in 10-point teaser, Houston +3½ in 13-point teaser, Detroit +19½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 36½ in 10-point teaser, Over 33½ in 13-point teaser  

 

Houston finally won a game last week, while Detroit was on the verge of getting a victory.  Now, the Texans are favored by almost double digits.  A lot of that has to do with the Lions sending Roy Williams packing to Dallas. 

 

The question in this game is how much the loss of Williams will affect the ability to get the ball to Calvin Johnson.  Johnson won’t be open as often, as defenses begin to key on him.

 

Detroit’s offense didn’t set the woods on fire the last three times out with Williams on the roster.  They scored 30 points.  Houston has surrendered 28 or more points in every game so far.  That streak will come to an end this week, and I expect the Texans to win their second consecutive game.  The Lions are going to struggle without Williams, and it is hard to find a winnable game on their remaining schedule.

 

Indianapolis (3-2) at Green Bay (3-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from low 60’s to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Indianapolis by 1    

Mean:           Indianapolis by 3

Bias:             Indianapolis by 2

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 2     -130/+110

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Indianapolis +8 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +11 in 13-point teaser, Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

 

If the Bears-Vikings game isn’t the best one this week, then it’s probably this game.  This one could be the most exciting match as well. 

 

Straight away, I like the possibility that this could be a game where the losing team scores 24 or more points.  The weather could be much worse this time of the year at Lambeau Field. Instead, it will be ideal for Brown County, Wisconsin, in mid-October.  Just close your eyes and smell in all the brats being steamed in beer and then grilled to perfection.  Then, watch two quarterbacks put on an aerial display as good as the annual one in Oshkosh.

 

This is one game where I’d prefer to take the favorite in a teaser play.  The Colts are the most improved team in the league since the second week of the season.  Peyton Manning is almost back to his old self, and he will pick apart the Packers’ defense.  The Colts should top 30 points for the third consecutive week.

 

Aaron Rodgers will need a 300 yard effort to give the Packers a chance to win this game.  If they are to pull off the mild upset, I think they will have to score 35 points. 

 

New York Jets (3-2) at Oakland (1-4)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 70’s

 

 

PiRate:         Jets by 16  

Mean:           Jets by 6

Bias:             Jets by 9

Vegas:        Jets by 3     -175/+155

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Oakland +13 in 10-point teaser, Oakland +16 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 10-point teaser, Over 28 in 13-point teaser

 

This is a trap game.  The Jets are better than average, while Oakland stinks.  However, the Raiders can be counted on to come up with a decent game every other week or so.  They failed to show up last week in New Orleans, but they will perform much better this week.

 

The Jets are making their second of four trips to the West Coast this week.  Their first visit to the Pacific Ocean ended in a 19-point drowning in San Diego.  I expect a much better effort this time out, but I cannot see them winning big.  This could be a 28-20 game.  King Brett may connect for three touchdown passes, but he could also throw a couple of critical picks that allows Oakland to pick up some easy points. 

 

Cleveland (2-3) at Washington (4-2)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light winds, temperature dropping from around 60 to the low 50’s

 

 

PiRate:         Washington by 10

Mean:           Washington by 5

Bias:             Washington by 5

Vegas:        Washington by 7½ -300/+270

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Cleveland +17½  in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +20½  in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

 

How do you gauge a team that won at Dallas and lost at home to St. Louis?  How do you gauge a team that looked dead for three weeks, won a sloppy game against a winless team, and then destroyed the undefeated defending Super Bowl Champions on Monday night?

 

This game is definitely tricky.  It should be expected for the Browns to bounce some after the emotional win over the Giants.  Having to play on Monday night could put more rubber into that bounce. 

 

The big question is how will the Redskins respond after losing at home to the worst team in the NFL?

 

The logical play here is to force Washington to win big to ruin the pick.  The Redskins have yet to win a game by a touchdown. 

 

The Browns could bounce big time and still lose by less than 17 points.  Their offense should put up enough points to allow this game to go well over the 30 total. 

 

 

Seattle (1-4) at Tampa Bay (4-2)

Time:           8:15PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Clear to partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from the upper 70’s to the lower 70’s

                    

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 34    

Mean:           Tampa Bay by 15

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 15

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 10½         -445/+405

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +2½ in 13-point teaser, Over 28 in 10-point teaser, Over 25 in 13-point teaser, Tampa Bay -445 

 

There is a big question with this game.  Who will start at quarterback for the Seahawks?  Matt Hasselbeck is definitely out.  Seneca Wallace is injured yet could still play, but Charlie Frye may have to go if Wallace isn’t ready Sunday.  Frye attempted 23 passes last week against the Packers’ mediocre secondary, and he averaged a measly 3.6 yards per attempt with two interceptions.  Two sacks brought his production down under 2.6 yards per pass play.

 

Tampa Bay won big over Carolina last week, and the Bucs could be ready to go on a run to a possible 12-win season.  This game should be close to a cinch for the home team.  Jeff Garcia played competently if not brilliantly last week subbing for Brian Griese.  I’m looking for a 28-10 Tampa Bay victory, but I’ll play it safe and take the Bucs in the teasers.

 

Denver (4-2) at New England (3-2)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Mostly clear, moderate winds, temperature falling from mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           New England by 2

Bias:             Denver by 1

Vegas:        New England by 3           -160/+150

Ov/Un:        48

Strategy:     Under 58 in 10-point teaser, Under 61 in 13-point teaser

 

These two teams are among the most inconsistent in the league.  The one thing I think I can predict with some rationality is that Denver will continue to struggle to score points.  This is their first trip east this year.  The Pats should play better this week after playing two consecutive road games on the West Coast. 

 

I’m teasing the Under in this one.  The odds makers always inflate the totals for Monday night games, so I feel like I’m getting a couple of bonus points here.  My guess is New England will win by a score of something like 20-16.

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Makes Another Nice Deposit

 

It’s now six winning weeks out of six!  Not only did I have a sixth consecutive winning week, I was 10-3 to bring my record for the year against the spread to 44-19-3 (69.8%).  I was close to finishing 11-2 until the 49ers committed more mistakes in five minutes than they used to commit in an entire season during their glory years.  It’s starting to look bleak for Coach Nolan.

 

The profitable weekend brought me $640, bringing the bank account for the year up to $1,985, just 15 bucks shy of doubling the initial $1,000 investment in six weeks.  For the season, my return on investment is 30.1%.

 

Once again, I did rather well with the straight wagers, getting four out of five correct.  The new 13-point teaser parlays finished 3-1, while the tried and true 10-point teaser parlays finished 3-1. 

 

This week, I am having quite a bit of difficulty coming up with straight wagers, as the schedule is not favorable for playing them that way.  Not counting the Dallas-St. Louis game and the Tony Romo situation, I see seven games that could easily go either way not only against the spread but in which team will win outright.  Even the game that looks like a blowout (Titans-Chiefs) may be a huge trap.  Tennessee could easily lose this one.  Cincinnati is a lively upset threat this week as well. 

 

As a result, I will be relying heavily on teaser parlays this week, trying to pick games that give me what looks like ridiculous odds in my favor.  Sure, one or two of these games will be ridiculous and ruin some of the parlays, but I am banking on the law of averages.  Hopefully, it will lead to another profitable weekend. 

 

Here are my wagers for week seven (all wagered to win $100):

 

1. Buffalo -1 vs. San Diego

 

2. Cincinnati +9½ vs. Pittsburgh

 

3. New York Giants -430 vs. San Francisco

 

4. Tampa Bay -445 vs. Seattle

 

5. 10-point teaser

       A. Buffalo +9 vs. San Diego

       B. Cincinnati +19½ vs. Pittsburgh

       C. Chicago & Minnesota Under 47½ 

 

6. 10-point teaser

       A. Chicago +7 vs. Minnesota

       B. Kansas City +19 vs. Tennessee

       C. New Orleans +13 vs. Carolina

 

7. 10-point teaser

       A. Kansas City & Tennessee Over 25

       B. New Orleans & Carolina Over 34

       C. Detroit & Houston Over 36½

 

8. 10-point teaser

       A. New York Giants -½ vs. San Francisco

       B. Baltimore +13 vs. Miami

       C. Houston +½ vs. Detroit

  

9. 10-point teaser

       A. Indianapolis +8 vs. Green Bay

       B. Cleveland +17½ vs. Washington

       C. Tampa Bay -½ vs. Seattle

 

10. 10-point teaser

       A. Indianapolis & Green Bay Over 37

       B. Oakland & New York Jets Over 31

       C. Cleveland & Washington Over 31½

 

11. 10-point teaser

       A. Buffalo & San Diego Over 34

       B. Tampa Bay & Seattle Over 28

       C. Denver & New England Under 58

 

12. 13-point teaser

       A. Buffalo & San Diego Over 31

       B. Kansas City +22 vs. Tennessee

       C. Indianapolis & Green Bay Over 34

       D. Tampa Bay & Seattle Over 25

 

13. 13-point teaser

       A. Buffalo +12 vs. San Diego

       B. New Orleans & Carolina Over 31

       C. Baltimore & Miami Over 23½

       D. Oakland +16 vs. New York Jets

 

14. 13-point teaser

       A. Cincinnati +22½ vs. Pittsburgh

       B. New Orleans +16 vs. Carolina

       C. Houston +3½ vs. Detroit

       D. Oakland & New York Jets Over 28

 

15. 13-point teaser

       A. Cincinnati & Pittsburgh Over 22½

       B. Kansas City & Tennessee Over 22

       C. Detroit +22½ vs. Houston

       D. Cleveland +20½ vs. Washington

   

16. 13-point teaser

       A. Chicago +10 vs. Minnesota

       B. New York Giants +2½ vs. San Francisco

       C. Detroit & Houston Over 33½

       D. Cleveland & Washington Over 28½

  

17. 13-point teaser

       A. Chicago & Minnesota Under 50½

       B. Baltimore +16 vs. Miami

       C. Indianapolis +11 vs. Green Bay

       D. Tampa Bay +2½ vs. Seattle

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings Week 6 NFL Previews: October 12-13, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Six

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

Current NFL Standings
(listed alphabetically by division)
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Dallas		4	–	1	–	0	151	111	109.97	106.14	108.09	2
New York		4	–	0	–	0	127	49	110.99	107.61	109.19	2
Philadelphia		2	–	3	–	0	127	97	107.44	104.55	104.27	2
Washington		4	–	1	–	0	109	98	110.22	106.43	108.20	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		3	–	2	–	0	128	87	108.76	105.32	105.29	2
Detroit		0	–	4	–	0	66	147	80.19	87.10	83.93	3
Green Bay		2	–	3	–	0	133	128	101.21	100.01	99.71	2
Minnesota		2	–	3	–	0	101	109	103.20	101.93	100.50	2
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Atlanta		3	–	2	–	0	117	107	99.39	98.31	99.61	2
Carolina		4	–	1	–	0	114	70	110.14	105.07	107.31	2
New Orleans		2	–	3	–	0	138	130	105.33	101.24	100.78	2
Tampa Bay		3	–	2	–	0	114	94	107.69	103.31	103.47	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		3	–	2	–	0	147	120	106.98	102.26	103.12	3
St. Louis		0	–	4	–	0	43	147	73.25	85.65	81.05	2
San Francisco		2	–	3	–	0	115	127	92.32	94.27	95.59	3
Seattle		1	–	3	–	0	83	124	82.87	93.40	92.92	3
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Buffalo		4	–	1	–	0	126	104	95.52	99.24	102.62	3
Miami		2	–	2	–	0	79	74	105.18	100.62	102.43	2
New England		3	–	1	–	0	79	79	97.34	101.44	102.83	2
New York		2	–	2	–	0	115	116	103.98	100.74	102.22	2
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Baltimore		2	–	2	–	0	75	56	105.99	102.08	103.48	3
Cincinnati		0	–	5	–	0	74	118	97.21	96.25	92.76	2
Cleveland		1	–	3	–	0	46	78	93.05	96.47	93.17	2
Pittsburgh		4	–	1	–	0	103	79	103.82	104.39	105.91	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Houston		0	–	4	–	0	83	130	90.59	96.30	92.65	3
Indianapolis		2	–	2	–	0	83	94	97.57	100.80	101.54	2
Jacksonville		2	–	3	–	0	100	111	97.36	100.41	100.82	3
Tennessee		5	–	0	–	0	115	56	111.01	107.17	108.51	2
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		4	–	1	–	0	149	130	103.97	100.89	104.04	2
Kansas City		1	–	4	–	0	65	131	87.57	91.16	89.82	2
Oakland		1	–	3	–	0	78	101	92.80	95.83	93.00	2
San Diego		2	–	3	–	0	148	129	107.07	103.50	103.98	2

 

 

NFL Previews-Week Six

 

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         New Orleans by 15 

Mean:           New Orleans by 7

Bias:             New Orleans by 10

Vegas:        New Orleans by 7     -285/+245  

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Over 37 in 10-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

 

Oakland has a new coach and is coming off a bye week, whereas New Orleans played Monday night.  How will the Raiders respond?  Also, how much can Darren McFadden play?  These are major issues, and I wouldn’t begin to pick a side in this one, even in teasers.

 

The Saints’ defense cannot be counted on to stop enemy offenses for 60 minutes.  Given an extra week to tweak their offense, I expect the Raiders to score at least 17 points and as much as 25 points this week.  New Orleans is in a must-win situation this week, as a 2-4 start probably puts them too far behind in their division to dig themselves out.  Therefore, I tend to believe New Orleans will find a way to win, but I don’t feel confident enough to pick them at -285 in a money line selection.  I am confident that Drew Brees can pass for 300 yards and direct the offense to 20 or more points, so teasing the Over is how to play this game.

 

Cincinnati (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Jets by 9    

Mean:           Jets by 6

Bias:             Jets by 11

Vegas:        Jets by 5½         -240/+200   

Ov/Un:        44½  

Strategy:     Jets -240, Jets +4 ½ in 10-point teaser, Jets +7½ in 13-point teaser

 

The Jets had a bye last week, while Cincinnati had to play a rough game at Dallas.  The 0-5 Bengals must play on the road again this week with a wounded quarterback.  Even if Carson Palmer plays, he won’t be close to 100% effective.  The Jets’ defense ranks in the bottom half of the league after giving up 83 points in their previous two contests, but I expect a vast improvement following a week off.  Brett Favre should be at peak performance as well, so I like the Jets to win outright.  5½ points is tricky, so I’ll go the money line route in this one. 

 

Only one thing worries me this week: there are still four NFL teams looking for their first win of the season in week six.  How many times in the past have four teams continued to remain winless six weeks into the season?  The odds are heavily in favor of one or more of those winless teams winning this week. So, the 13-point teaser gives the Jets more than a TD at home, which I fell is quite safe.

 

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 7     

Mean:           Chicago by 5

Bias:             Chicago by 4

Vegas:        Chicago by 3      -145/+135  

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     Atlanta +3, Atlanta +13 in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +16 in 13-point teaser

 

Atlanta is the top surprise in the NFC five weeks into the season.  New coach Mike Smith has the Falcons in the playoff hunt and a win in this game might be enough to guarantee the dirty birds a winning season.  The schedule is not that difficult, and at 4-2, it is easy to see 9-7 or even better for this team.

 

Chicago finds itself alone in first in the old black and blue division.  The Bears are not that far from being 5-0, losing by three at Carolina and in overtime by three to Tampa Bay. 

 

Teams that play consecutive road games and win the first one usually bounce some in the second road game and perform worse than they did in the previous game.  Many teams play much better at home after playing consecutive road games.  Both of these factors are in play this week, so I like the home team to cover in a close game.  As a double-digit ‘dog in teaser plays, Atlanta looks safe.  Chicago destroyed a weak Detroit team last week, and they will face a much tougher opponent this week.  The Falcons will rough them up, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matt Ryan have his first 200 yard passing game.  The Bears might be able to shut down Michael Turner, or at least limit his effectiveness, but that will be at the expense of giving Ryan more holes to find in the intermediate zones. 

 

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Minnesota by 25      

Mean:           Minnesota by 17

Bias:             Minnesota by 19

Vegas:        Minnesota by 13       -600/+450  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Minnesota -3 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota Pk in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser

 

This game scares me a little.  Minnesota enjoyed a big win Monday night in New Orleans, while Detroit was reduced to fodder at home against the Bears Sunday.  The Lions have nothing to lose from here on out, as they are basically competing with the Rams for the rights to Tim Tebow, Beanie Wells, or whoever is deemed the top draft choice in 2009.

 

Minnesota is just one game out of first place in the NFC North, where 9-7 could easily win the division title.  Obviously, a loss to the lowly Lions would kill their chances.  The Vikings have an easier schedule left than the Packers, and a win Sunday could possible propel them into a first place tie.

 

Normally, you could expect Minnesota to come out flat in this situation and lay an egg.  If Detroit was as good as less than mediocre Cleveland, I would pick the Lions as an upset possibility this week.  However, with Jon Kitna likely out for this game and Calvin Johnson probably playing at less than 100% strength, what weapons can Detroit use effectively? 

 

Adrian Peterson is going to think he is facing the Baylor defense when he played at Oklahoma.  Detroit cannot stop average backs, so expect Peterson to have a memorable day.

 

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature around 70

 

PiRate:         Washington by 39   

Mean:           Washington by 23

Bias:             Washington by 29

Vegas:        Washington by 13½       -625/+450   

Ov/Un:        44

Strategy:     St. Louis +23½ in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +26½ in 13-point teaser, Washington -3½ in 10-point teaser, Washington -½ in 13-point teaser, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser   

 

Could this be a mini-trap game?  The Rams find themselves in the same situation as the Raiders this week.  They are coming off a bye with a new head coach to play a road game against a team that was extended for 60 minutes the previous game.  There are two differences between the former L.A. teams. The Raiders at least can play a little defense, whereas the Rams play matador defense.  However, the Rams still have Marc Bulger who is capable of throwing for 300 yards and leading his team on a scoring binge.  That’s a remote possibility at best, but the Redskins have to cover by two touchdowns against this possibility.

 

I won’t go with either team at + or -13½.  However, both sides look playable in a 10 or 13-point teaser.  The Redskins have yet to blow out an opponent, so asking them to cover at 23½ or 26½ points is a big stretch.  Likewise, at -3½ or -½, the home team looks great.  Teasing the totals looks promising this week.  The Rams have given up 31 or more points in every game this year, and even if they improve by 14 points off their 37 points per game allowed average, they should score at least 14 themselves this week.    

 

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible in the 2^nd half, light wind, temperature in mid 80’s and likely dropping if rain occurs

 

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Pick

Bias:             Carolina by 2

Vegas:        Tampa Bay by 1       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        36½  

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -1, Tampa Bay +9 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +12 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 10-point teaser, Over 23½ in 13-point teaser 

 

This game is one where you need to check back Friday evening to peruse the injury report.  Will Brian Griese be able to play Sunday?  If not, then what difference will it make for Jeff Garcia to start?  Garcia has played in two games this year.  The Bucs lost both.  Griese has started and finished three games this year; the Bucs won all three.  The stats of the two QBs are about the same, but Tampa Bay just doesn’t score as many points when Garcia runs the offense.

 

Carolina in week six is a good touchdown or more improved from the team that opened the season.  The Panthers could take a commanding lead in the NFC South with a win and a Falcons’ loss this week.

 

Therefore, I recommend that you use the above sides’ strategies only if you are missing one piece of a three or four team parlay.  I do have more confidence in the totals’ teasers.

 

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly Cloudy, light wind, temperature in the mid 80’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 12      

Mean:           Miami by 1

Bias:             Miami by 7

Vegas:        Houston by 3     -150/+130  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     Houston +7 in 10-point teaser, Under 55 in 10-point teaser (but not so hot on these two)

 

Like the previous game, I am not so hot on this game.  Houston is still a team in flux following the hurricane.  The Texans have the talent to beat Miami by 10 points, but some of the players may be about ready to fold on this season.

 

Miami is a team on the rise.  The Dolphins have just enough talent and a nice gimmick offense to sneak out of town with their third consecutive victory.  I think they have a 60% chance of winning this game outright, but I believe if they win, the Texans have a 75% chance of losing by less than a touchdown.

 

I think Miami will try to control the clock and make this game a lower than expected outcome.  Again, I warn only to use the strategies above if you need a third or fourth part of a parlay.

 

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2)

Time:           1PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 6  

Mean:           Indianapolis by 1

Bias:             Pick

Vegas:        Indianapolis by 3½        -190/+160   

Ov/Un:        38½  

Strategy:     Indianapolis -3½, Indianapolis, +6½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +9½ in 13-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser   

 

This game looks like the top play of the week.  Baltimore just played two emotional games against two physical teams and lost both games.  The come into this game with numerous injuries to key personnel (Willis McGahee, Ray Lewis, Fabian Washington, Derrick Mason).  Even if they all play, they won’t be nearly as effective as they normally would play.

 

Peyton Manning now has four games under his belt following his knee surgery.  He missed all of the preseason, so this game is almost like his normal opening game.  His stats have slowly improved as the season has progressed, and the Colts’ offense has gotten a little better each week.  If Washington cannot go for the Ravens, Manning will pick apart the Baltimore secondary.  As long as he gets protection, Indianapolis should move the ball more effectively than any Raven opponent to date.

 

I foresee a Colt double digit win this week.  Their real liability is their run defense, but Baltimore may have to go without McGahee or at the best with him playing on an injured ankle. Le’Ron McClain isn’t going to rush for 100 yards and exploit that liability.

 

I’m going with the Colts to win this one by a score similar to 24-13.  So, my strategies for this game include using the Colts straight up and in teasers, as well as teasing the Over with the belief that Indianapolis will continue to improve offensively and be opportunistic defensively.  

 

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)

Time:           4:05PM EDT

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, considerable winds, temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           Denver by 2

Bias:             Denver by 5

Vegas:        Denver by 3 -175/+155  

Ov/Un:        48½  

Strategy:     Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 10-point teaser, Under 61½ in 13-point teaser

 

The Broncos’ offense has taken a step back in recent weeks after looking more like the 2007 Patriots at the beginning of the season.  Not having Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, Tony Scheffler, and maybe Eddie Royal on hand this week isn’t going to make things any better.  Denver will have to pass, pass, pass to a group of less experienced players, and Jacksonville will be able to adjust their blitz packages to take advantage of this fact.

 

The Jaguars will continue to try to control the clock with the short passing game and power running in short yardage situations.  It’s hard to be perfect for long drives all day long on an opponent’s field, so they must play better defense if they plan on winning this game. 

 

This game isn’t far from being a tossup given the injuries on the Broncos’ side of the field.  If you take the underdog in a teaser, you get a nice amount of points.  Denver might have a 55-60% chance of winning this game, but they have maybe a 10-15% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns.  I’ll take the 13 and 16 points in the teasers.  Because I believe Jacksonville will try to shorten the game, I like teasing the Under as well.  If the forecasted rain comes, it could help us a little here.

 

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in upper 50’s

 

PiRate:         Green Bay by 15      

Mean:           Green Bay by 4

Bias:             Green Bay by 4

Vegas:        Seattle by 2       -120/+110  

Ov/Un:        45½  

Strategy:     Green Bay +12 in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +15 in 13-point teaser, Over 35½ in 10-point teaser, Over 32½ in 13-point teaser 

 

We have two teams going in the same direction in this game, but unfortunately it is the wrong direction.  Seattle was the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West, but injuries have made them a mere shell of their former selves.  They never really play well on the East Coast, but they also lost at home to San Francisco.

 

Green Bay has dropped three games in a row, and the Packer defense is not getting the job done.  They cannot give up 28 points per game and think about the playoffs much less having a winning season.  Even Brett Favre would be struggling to win games if he was directing the Packers’ offense and having to score 30 points every week to win.

 

I believe the loser of this game will be out of the playoff hunt, so it becomes a must-win game for both teams.  The players on both sides probably realize this, so I expect a great game that goes down to the wire.  As I previously stated, I like teasing the underdog when I perceive a possible tossup game.  It’s like getting extra points.  Since I don’t have much faith in these two defenses, it’s understood that I would like teasing the Over as well.

 

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 12  

Mean:           Philadelphia by 7

Bias:             Philadelphia by 6

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 5     -230/+190  

Ov/Un:        42½  

Strategy:     San Francisco +5, San Francisco +15 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 32½ in 10-point teaser, Over 29½ in 13-point teaser 

 

Philadelphia’s 2008 plight can be summed up by reading the book A Tale of Two Cities.  When Brian Westbrook has been healthy, it has been the best of times in the city of brotherly love.  When Westbrook has been injured, it has been the worst of times in Philly.

 

Westbrook is out for this game, so I expect something close to the worst of times for the Eagles.  Add to this trouble that Donovan McNabb is far from healthy and Wide out Reggie Brown will miss the game.  Former star Kevin Curtis should finally get on the field for the first time this year, but he won’t be ready to have a 100-yard receiving day right out of the box.  I just don’t see the Eagles topping 20 points in this game.  Against a weaker than average 49er defense, they will score more than 14, but 17 points may be about their limit unless the defense and/or special teams contribute to the scoring load.

 

San Francisco is one of the hardest teams to figure out.  J.T. O’Sullivan has proven he is a legitimate starter in the NFL and is running the Mike Martz offense almost as competently as Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner ran it.  Frank Gore is keeping defenses honest.  The 49ers just cannot stop anybody.  Even a wounded Eagles’ offense should pick up 300-350 yards and the aforementioned 17 points.

 

I am going with the 49ers to win this game for a couple of reasons.  First, this is a must-win game for them.  At 2-4, they will be in too much of a hole to make up in a division where only the winner is going to qualify for a playoff spot.  Second, Philadelphia is 10 points weaker without Westbrook than they would be if he was healthy.  Third, Philadelphia is making a cross-country trip a week after being extended to the final gun against Washington, while San Francisco is at home for the second week in a row.  Finally, a loss in this game will start the ball rolling for the dismissal of Coach Mike Nolan. 

 

I see San Francisco playing their best game of the year this week and pulling off the upset.  So, I like them straight up at +5½ as well as in teasers.  I look for them to win 24-17, so I like teasing the Over as well.  If you can find a money line that has SF +220 or higher, then it might be worth a little bit of a gamble, but I won’t pursue that at +190.

 

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)

Time:           4:15PM EDT

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, considerable wind, temperature in mid to upper 70’s

 

PiRate:         Pick      

Mean:           Dallas by 1

Bias:             Dallas by 2

Vegas:        Dallas by 5         -220/+180  

Ov/Un:        50

Strategy:     Arizona +15 in 10-point teaser, Arizona +18 in 13-point teaser

 

Dallas has played a wee bit below their predicted expectations the last two weeks.  Arizona has lived up to their billing as a force to be reckoned with this year.  The Cardinals have the lead in the NFC West, and it looks like 9-7 could get them into the playoffs as division winner.

 

The Cardinals’ two home wins look more impressive now that Miami is playing so much better.  They look strong enough to beat just about anybody at University of Phoenix Stadium.

 

Dallas has the potential to go on the road and win by 14 or more points, but if they continue to play like they have the best two weeks, they could also find themselves in trouble in this game.

 

I am going with the percentages and progressions here in this game.  Give me the home team and more than two touchdowns, and I will be happy, especially when I get Kurt Warner and more than two touchdowns.

 

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3)

Time:           8:15PM EDT

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Sunny, then clear after dark, considerable wind, temperature falling from mid 60’s to upper 50’s

                    

 

PiRate:         San Diego by 12      

Mean:           San Diego by 4

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 5         -220/+200  

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     None

 

I do not like the two prime time games this week.  This game is between two very inconsistent teams.  Which New England team will we see this week?  Will it be the team that struggled to edge the hapless Chiefs and saw the Dolphins blow them off their home field, or will it be the team that held Brett Favre and the Jets to 10 points and won all the way across the country last week?

 

San Diego keeps finding ways to lose games, but they also scored like they were a basketball team in their prior prime time game.

 

I’ll leave this one alone.  It is too risky.

 

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)

Time:           8:30PM EDT Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling through the 60’s

 

PiRate:         Giants by 16     

Mean:           Giants by 9

Bias:             Giants by 14

Vegas:        Giants by 7½     -325/+265   

Ov/Un:        43½  

Strategy:     None

 

Sooner or later, Cleveland is going to break through with a big game on offense.  They had a week off to prepare for this game, and they have too many weapons on the attack side not to bust loose eventually.  I watched these two teams play in the preseason, and the Browns gave the Giants 23 points in gifts yet still lost by three.  Obviously, the preseason is not an accurate gauge, but I believe the Browns are itching to show the defending Super Bowl champions their best effort.

 

The one thing that worries me is the health of Kellen Winslow.  He may not be able to go Monday night, but even if he misses the game, I can still see Cleveland having their best game of the year.

 

The Giants can still win this game by 10 points even if the Browns play their best game of the year.  Their defense is starting to look like one of those great stop troops of yesteryear.  You know the type I am talking about; I’m referring to those defenses that have been immortalized with a fancy nickname like the Purple People Eaters, the Fearsome Foursome, the Steel Curtain, the Doomsday Defense, the No-name Defense, etc.  They are on pace to give up less than 200 points (that equates to less than 175 points when comparing to the teams from the 14-game schedule era).

 

Two things worry me this week about the Giants.  First, even with a tough taskmaster like Tom Coughlin on the sidelines, the Giants won with such ease against Seattle last week and can only be a little too cocky this week.  They will definitely bounce some.  Second, New York has played three home games and just one road game, which was at St. Louis.  This is their first road game against a team that has enough talent to score points against their defense.

 

The problem with this game is that there are too many variables.  I like the Browns’ prospects in this game.  I think they have a better than expected chance of keeping this one close and having a shot at the big upset.  However, if this isn’t the week they awaken from their offensive slumber, this game could be another snoozer for the fans.  It isn’t one to consider in my strategies.

 

The Imaginary Bank Account Makes It Five-for-Five

 

It wasn’t pretty, but after the smoke cleared Sunday night in Jacksonville, I was a winner for the fifth consecutive week.  My picks finished 7-4 for the week, running my record to 34-16-3 for the season (68%).

 

Due to the fact that I lost a money line pick, my profit was only $80, bringing my year-to-date profit to $1,345.00.  That gives me a return on investment of 25.4%.  The come from behind victory by Washington was the killer, as if Philadelphia had held on in the fourth quarter, the difference in 7-4 and 8-3 would have been an extra $360.  Oh well, I’ll just have to be glad with being able to maintain 100% winning weeks a month and a half into the season.

 

Last week, it was the straight wagers that won for me, as I went 4-1 in those five picks, while going just 3-3 in the 10-point teasers.  I have noticed that a lot of my teaser losses have come about because one team or one total in the parlay failed to cover by one or two points.  It kills you to watch a team elect to go for a touchdown late in the game and miss on fourth down when a field goal would have covered your wager, but such is life.  Losing by one or two points should be rectifiable by playing some 13-point teasers.  Of course, it could just be the new way to lose by one or two points, and I still have a 100% record of winning weeks, so I could be setting myself up for disaster.  Remember this!  I don’t really have anything monetary to worry about since I don’t actually wager with money.  So, I can gamble a little with four-team, 13-point teaser parlays and sleep comfortably this weekend. 

 

Here are my wagers for week six (all wagered to win $100):

 

1. New York Jets -240 vs. Cincinnati

 

2. Atlanta +3 vs. Chicago

 

3. Tampa Bay -1 vs. Carolina

 

4. Indianapolis -3½ vs. Baltimore

 

5. San Francisco +5 vs. Philadelphia

 

6. 10-point teaser

       A. Atlanta +13 vs. Chicago

       B. Minnesota -3 vs. Detroit

       C. Washington -3½ vs. St. Louis

 

7. 10-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay +9 vs. Carolina

       B. Indianapolis +6½ vs. Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Denver

 

8. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay +12 vs. Seattle

       B. San Francisco +15 vs. Philadelphia

       C. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 26½

 

9. 10-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 35½

       B. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 32½

       C. Arizona +15 vs. Dallas

 

10. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +7½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. Atlanta +16 vs. Chicago

       C. Minnesota Pk vs. Detroit

       D. St. Louis +26½ vs. Washington

 

11. 13-point teaser

       A. Detroit & Minnesota Over 32½

       B. Washington -½ vs. St. Louis

       C. Tampa Bay +12 vs. Carolina

       D. Indianapolis & Baltimore Over 25½

 

12. 13-point teaser

       A. Tampa Bay & Carolina Over 23½

       B. Indianapolis +9½ over Baltimore

       C. Jacksonville +16 vs. Denver

       D. Green Bay +15 vs. Seattle

 

13. 13-point teaser

       A. Green Bay & Seattle Over 32½

       B. San Francisco +18 vs. Philadelphia

       C. San Francisco & Philadelphia Over 29½

       D. Arizona +18 vs. Dallas              

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all nine wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.