PiRate Ratings Final Four Viewing Guide and Preview, Saturday, April 2, 2011

UNCLE!!!  Yes, we cry uncle.  Our PiRate Criteria failed to predict a Final Four team for the first time since we began predicting for the media six years ago.  In backtests, it isolated at least one Final Four every year back to the advent of the 64-team tournament.

 

PiRate Criteria Rating in (parentheses)

All Games on CBS Television and Westwood One Radio

 

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Final Four Site: Reliant Stadium, Houston

 

6:09 PM EDT—Virginia Commonwealth 28-11 (1) vs. Butler 27-9 (6)

Virginia Commonwealth Rams–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
5	Juvonte Reddic	F	Fr	6-09	225	3.5	1.9	0.5 Stl, 11.2 min
10	Darius Theus	G	So	6-03	190	3.1	1.5	2.1 Ast, 1.1 Stl, 15.4 min
12	Joey Rodriguez	G	Sr	5-10	175	10.5	3.3	81.6% FT, 5.1 Ast, 1.5 Stl
20	Bradford Burgess	G	Jr	6-06	225	14.3	6.2	42.8% 3pt, 1.1 Stl
21	Jamie Skeen	F	Sr	6-09	240	15.4	7.4	51.6% FG, 1.6 Ast
23	Rob Brandenberg	G	Fr	6-02	170	5.1	1.7	13.9 min
30	Troy Daniels	G	So	6-04	195	2.1	0.8	26 G, 4.8 min
31	Toby Veal	F	Jr	6-08	235	2.4	2.2	29 G, 9.9 min
32	Brandon Rozzell	G	Sr	6-02	185	11.8	2.3	40.4% 3pt, 1.5 Ast. 1.4 Stl
33	D. J. Haley	C	Fr	7-00	250	1.1	1.6	53.1% FG, 7.8 min
34	David Hinton	F	So	6-09	235	0.7	0.2	18 G, 3.7 min
50	Ed Nixon	G	Sr	6-04	210	7.1	2.6	1.9 Ast, 1.2 Stl
Head Coach		Shaka Smart
Assistant		Will Wade
Assistant		Mike Rhoades
Assistant		Mike Jones
Team Stats		VCU			Opp
Points Per Game		71.8			66.7
Field Goal %		43.6			44.4
3-point %		37.0			33.5
FT %		71.6			67.4
Rebounds Per Game		32.3			36.1
Turnovers Per Game		11.3			14.7
Steals Per Game		8.3
R + T (*)		2.97
SOS		55
Road Win %		68
PiRate Criteria #		1
(*) R+T= [R+({.2S}*{1.2T})], where R is reb. margin, T=Turnover margin, S=Steals per game
If turnover margin is negative, then adjust it to: R+T= [R+({.2S}+{1.2T})]

 

Butler Bulldogs–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
1	Shelvin Mack	G	Jr	6-03	215	15.9	4.3	3.6 Ast
2	Shawn Vanzant	G	Sr	6-00	172	8.1	3.2	42.0% 3-pt, 1.7 Ast
3	Zach Hahn	G	Sr	6-01	176	5.0	1.1	85.7% FT
4	Erik Fromm	F	Fr	6-09	220	0.8	0.5	26 G, 3.4 min
5	Ronald Nored	G	Jr	6-00	174	5.3	3.1	2.5 Ast, 1.2 Stl, A+ defender
11	Alex Anglin	G/F	Sr	6-05	177	0.7	0.7	18 G, 4.3 min
20	Chrishawn Hopkins	G	Fr	6-01	165	1.6	0.5	20 G, 6.1 min
22	Grant Leiendecker	G	Sr	6-05	182	1.2	0.3	15 G, 2.3 min
23	Khyle Marshall	F	Fr	6-07	210	5.9	3.8	52.4% FG, 15.2 min
30	Emerson Kampen	C	So	6-09	189	0.0	0.1	15 G, 1.9 min
32	Garrett Butcher	F	Jr	6-07	209	1.6	1.3	29 G, 7.4 min
33	Chase Stigall	G	So	6-04	195	3.9	1.7	16.3 min
44	Andrew Smith	C	So	6-11	239	8.8	5.4	62.1% FG
54	Matt Howard	F	Sr	6-08	230	16.7	7.7	1.5 Ast, 1.1 Stl
Head Coach		Brad Stevens
Assistant		Matthew Graves
Assistant		Terry Johnson
Assistant		Micah Shrewsberry
Team Stats		Butler			Opp
Points Per Game		72.1			64.5
Field Goal %		44.3			42.7
3-point %		35.5			32.6
FT %		72.7			66.8
Rebounds Per Game		34.7			31.5
Turnovers Per Game		11.1			12.6
Steals Per Game		5.9
R + T (*)		5.32
SOS		55
Road Win %		68
PiRate Criteria #		6

Virginia Commonwealth is the first team with a negative PiRate Criteria rating to win an Elite Eight round game.  The results of that game elevated their number into positive territory, but we still wonder about their rebounding difficulties.  VCU has won five games in this tournament, and four were not all that close.  The Rams have maintained a hot shooting touch from outside, and their 3-point percentage has been much higher in the postseason than it was during the regular season.

 

The VCU press has had its moments during the Big Dance as well, as a couple of opponents had trouble with it.  Can the Rams survive to the final round?  It is possible, but we tend to believe that their shooting prowess will eventually regress to the norm.  The Rams are overdue for a bad outside shooting game, and in a baseball domed stadium, the sightlines will not be like anything they have seen before.

 

Butler has the experience here.  They are the most seasoned of the teams left, and the Bulldogs can no longer be considered a Cinderella team.  In fact, we tend to see Butler very much like a 21^st Century version of Marquette during the Al McGuire years.  This team can continue to be a serious player in the national tournament scene. 

 

Butler will be able to handle the VCU press.  They will inbound the ball quickly and return it quickly to the inbound passer who will have an opening to break the press with numbers.  The Bulldogs can run when they need to, and a couple of easy baskets and/or fouls early could force VCU to panic.  The Butler perimeter defense will cover the VCU shooters tightly, and Nored will make life miserable for any opponent trying to shoot from outside.

 

This is a must-see game.  It should be close, and we do not see Butler pulling away to win by a big margin.  VCU could still have a chance to win with one quick spurt, and the Rams are capable of going on a quick spurt.  Ask Kansas about that.

 

Prediction: Butler 65  VCU 61

 

Approximately 8:49 PM—Kentucky 29-8 (18) vs. Connecticut 30-9 (11)

 

Kentucky Wildcats–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
1	Darius Miller	G	Jr	6-07	225	11.1	4.6	44.9% 3-pt, 86.4% FT, 1.7 Ast
2	Stacey Poole	G	Fr	6-04	195	0.3	0.5	16 G, 2.8 min
3	Terrence Jones	F	Fr	6-08	244	15.8	8.7	1.9 Blk, 1.1 Stl
4	Jon Hood	G	So	6-07	202	0.8	0.7	33 G, 4.8 min
5	Jarrod Polson	G	Fr	6-02	185	0.4	0.1	17 G, 1.8 min
12	Brandon Knight	G	Fr	6-03	185	17.3	3.9	4.2 Ast
20	Doron Lamb	G	Fr	6-04	195	12.3	2.0	48.1% 3-pt, 1.7 Ast
30	Eloy Vargas	F	Jr	6-11	250	1.5	1.9	7.7 min
34	DeAndre Liggins	G	Jr	6-06	210	8.8	4.1	40.2% 3-pt, 2.5 Ast, 1.2 Stl
55	Josh Harrellson	F	Sr	6-10	275	7.6	8.8	61.4% FG, 1.5 Blk
Head Coach		John Calipari
Assistant		John Robic
Assistant		Orlando Antigua
Assistant		Kenny Payne
Team Stats		UK			Opp
Points Per Game		75.4			63.7
Field Goal %		46.3			39.3
3-point %		40.0			32.8
FT %		71.6			72.2
Rebounds Per Game		37.4			33.7
Turnovers Per Game		10.7			12.0
Steals Per Game		5.4
R + T (*)		5.38
SOS		61
Road Win %		64
PiRate Criteria #		18

 

Connecticut Huskies–Starters in Bold
No.	Name	Pos.	Class	Ht	Wt	PPG	RPG	Other
1	Enosch Wolf	C	Fr	7-01	260	1.0	0.9	7 G, 3.7 min
2	Donnell Beverly	G	Sr	6-04	190	1.8	1.3	8.8 min
3	Jeremy Lamb	G/F	Fr	6-05	185	11.1	4.3	1.5 Ast
4	Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	F	So	6-07	210	5.8	2.7	81.5% FT
5	Niels Giffey	G/F	Fr	6-07	210	2.2	1.3	9.5 min
10	Tyler Olander	F	Fr	6-09	225	1.5	1.8	9.8 min
13	Shabazz Napier	G	Fr	6-00	170	8.0	2.4	3.0 Ast, 1.6 Stl
15	Kemba Walker	G	Jr	6-01	172	23.9	5.3	81.8% FT, 4.5 Ast, 1.9 Stl
21	Kyle Bailey	G	Sr	6-03	170	0.0	0.0	6 G, 1.0 min
22	Roscoe Smith	F	Fr	6-08	205	6.5	5.2	1.2 Blk
23	Benjamin Stewart	F	Jr	6-05	205	0.5	0.5	4 G, 1.0 min
34	Alex Oriakhi	F/C	So	6-09	240	9.6	8.6	1.6 Blk
35	Charles Okwandu	C	Sr	7-00	255	2.9	2.7	1.3 Blk
Head Coach		Jim Calhoun
Assistant		George Blaney
Assistant		Andre LaFleur
Assistant		Kevin Ollie
Team Stats		U Conn			Opp
Points Per Game		73.3			65.7
Field Goal %		43.5			40.0
3-point %		33.7			32.9
FT %		76.0			68.9
Rebounds Per Game		39.4			35.1
Turnovers Per Game		11.3			11.7
Steals Per Game		6.4
R + T (*)		4.91
SOS		61
Road Win %		77
PiRate Criteria #		11

 

Connecticut won five games in five days at the Big East Tournament and parlayed that into four more wins in the NCAA Tournament.  The Huskies have a chance to begin and end the season with separate double-digit game winning streaks.  In Kemba Walker, U Conn has the best player in the Final Four, but one player cannot do it alone.  The Huskies are anything but a one person team.  They can pound it inside with Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu, and when Walker drives the lane, Jeremy Lamb is frequently open outside.  This Connecticut team is not as strong as the two national championship teams from Calhoun’s past, but the Huskies have enough talent to win a third for Calhoun.

 

Kentucky is the one team left in the tournament with a PiRate Criteria rating similar of past national champions.  Their 18 rating is actually better than Indiana in 1981, North Carolina State in 1983, Villanova in 1985, Kansas in 1988, and Arizona in 1997.  The Wildcats have very little depth with only seven players used unless the game is a major blowout.  With the extra long timeout lengths, this should not be a factor at all this weekend.  Although none of the players have Final Four experience, every game Kentucky plays is about as pressure-packed as a Final Four game.  We believe the Wildcats will not be affected or intimidated in this game.  However, the weird sightlines could make their outside shooting game suffer. 

 

These two teams met in Hawaii in November, and Connecticut won 84-67.  In that game, the Huskies quickly opened a 20-point lead in the first half and went to the locker room at the half up 50-29.  Connecticut couldn’t miss, while Kentucky couldn’t buy a basket.  Knight and Liggins were a combined 0-10 from three-point land, and Josh Harrellson did not score.  Walker scored 29 points for the winners, while Oriakhi recorded a double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds.

 

This game will have a much different look.  This season, Kentucky has dominated teams that they have already played during the season.  They are 7-0 against teams that they played a second or third time.  We see this trend continuing.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 72  Connecticut 66

PiRate Ratings Elite Eight Preview For Saturday-Sunday, March 26-27, 2011

It hasn’t been pretty for our PiRate Criteria Ratings this year.  We are down to one team left in our Final Four bracket, but at least it is the team we picked to win it all.  Kansas is our last hope, but if the Jayhawks can get by Virginia Commonwealth, they will be two wins away from keeping our successful record of picking the national champion before the tournament begins intact.

 

We are shocked that a team with a negative PiRate Criteria score is still around, and even more surprised that the team has had to win one extra game to get to this point.  We are almost as shocked to see Arizona in the Elite Eight with a score of just four points, and we are semi-surprised to see Butler back in the Elite Eight with a rating of four.  The Bulldogs’ 2010 PiRate Criteria score was 10 points higher than it is today, and they were actually favored to beat Syracuse in the Sweet 16 by our ratings.

 

PiRate Criteria Rating in (parentheses)

All Games on CBS

 

Saturday, March 26, 2011

4:30 PM EDT—Southeast Regional Final @ New Orleans

#2 Florida 29-7 (15) vs. #8 Butler 26-9 (4)

Position	Florida	Butler
Coach	Billy Donovan	Brad Stevens
Center	(32) Vernon Macklin 6-10 Sr.–11.2/5.4  58.4% FG	(44) Andrew Smith 6-11 So.–8.9/5.4  62.2% FG ***Probable***
Forward	(23) Alex Tyus 6-8 Sr.–8.9/6.1	(54) Matt Howard 6-8 Sr.–16.8/7.8  44.4%  3pt
Forward	(25) Chandler Parsons 6-10 Sr.–11.5/7.8  3.8 ast	(33) Chase Stigall 6-4 So.–4.0/1.8
Guard	(1) Kenny Boynton 6-2 So.–14.1/1.4  82.1% FT	(1) Shelvin Mack 6-3 Sr.–15.6/4.3  3.6 ast
Guard	(11) Erving Walker  5-8 Jr.–14.8/3.0  3.4 ast	(2) Shawn Vanzant 6-0 Sr.–8.1/3.1  42.3% 3 pt
6th	(4) Patric Young 6-9 Fr. F/C–3.4/3.8  56.8% FG	(23) Khyle Marshall 6-7 Fr. F–5.8/3.7
7th	(5) Scottie Wilbekin 6-2 Fr. G–2.5/1.5  1.7 ast	(5) Ronald Nored 6-0 Jr.–5.3/3.0  2.5 ast

 

PiRate Criteria Stats

 

Team	Florida	Butler
Pts	9.1	7.8
FG%	4.2	1.5
Reb	6.0	2.9
TO	0.3	1.7
Stl	5.9	6.0
R+T	6.42	5.35
SOS	60	54
Road%	79	67
PiRate #	15	4

 

Can Butler do it again?  It does not appear highly probable, but then the Bulldogs have made a science out of making the improbable probable. 

 

If the Bulldogs are to have any chance in this game, big man Andrew Smith must be able to play at close to 100%.  Smith sprained his ankle in the Sweet 16 win over Wisconsin, and after he exited the game, Butler almost blew a 20-point lead.  It is the emergence of Smith as a key player that has fueled Butler’s long winning streak.  He has led the team in both steals and blocked shots in the winning streak.

 

When Smith is patrolling under the basket, Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack get more open looks.  The duo will need to combine for 40+ points in this game, and they will need to connect on better than 50% of their two-point shots and better than 40% of their three-point shots for Butler to advance to the Final Four for the second consecutive year.

 

When Florida won the National Championship in 2007, their toughest game may have been their Sweet 16 game against Butler.  That Gator team benefitted from having five starters that could score 20 points in a game.  Coach Donovan’s club moves the ball quickly and the players without the ball keep their defender occupied.  Not the most consistent team defensively, the Gators tend to play in spurts.  At times, they are tough on opponents, and at times, opponents get a lot of open looks. 

 

To beat Florida, the key is to penetrate the perimeter defense and take a lot of shots in the 5-10 foot range.  Butler may lack the quickness to get into that inside zone, especially if Smith is not able to occupy 1 ½ defenders.

 

The Southeastern Conference was supposed to be down again this year, and the early NCAA Tournament exits of Tennessee, Georgia, and Vanderbilt supposedly proved this point.  However, the SEC could very well place two teams in the Final Four this year.

 

Prediction: Florida 69  Butler 60

 

7:05 PM EDT—West Regional Final @ Anaheim

#3 Connecticut 29-9 (11)  vs. #5 Arizona 30-7 (4)

Position	Connecticut	Arizona
Coach	Jim Calhoun	Sean Miller
Center	(35) Charles Okwandu 7-0 Sr.–2.9/2.8	(23) Derrick Williams 6-8 So.–19.5/8.4  60.2% FG/60.3% 3pt
Forward	(34) Alex Oriakhi 6-9 So.–9.7/8.7  1.6 Blk	(33) Jesse Perry 6-7 Jr.–6.4/4.4
Forward	(22) Roscoe Smith 6-8 Fr.–6.5/5.2  1.2 Blk	(44) Solomon Hill 6-6 So.–8.1/4.6  78.0% FT
Guard	(3) Jeremy Lamb 6-5 Fr.–10.9/4.3  79.6% FT	(21) Kyle Fogg 6-3 Jr.–8.1/1.8  2.6 Ast
Guard	(15) Kemba Walker 6-1 Jr.–24.0/5.4  4.5 ast/1.9 stl	(12) Lamont Jones 6-0 So.–9.7/1.6  2.5 Ast/82.8% FT
6th	(13) Shabazz Napier 6-0 Fr. G–7.9/2.3  3.1 Ast	(3) Kevin Parrom 6-6 So. G/F–7.8/3.4  2.0 Ast/42.2% 3pt
7th	(4) Jamal Coombs-McDaniel 6-7 So. F–6.0/2.7  81.5% FT	(42) Jamelle Horne 6-7 Sr. F–6.2/3.3  40.8% 3pt

PiRate Criteria Stats

 

Team	Connecticut	Arizona
Pts	7.7	8.7
FG%	3.5	2.5
Reb	4.8	3.6
TO	0.3	-0.1
Stl	6.5	5.2
R+T	5.27	4.52
SOS	60	55
Road%	76	67
PiRate #	11	4

 

Two teams with one dominant player and a host of above-average complimentary players should make for an interesting game.  Unfortunately, the teams’ key players will not face off against each other, as Walker is the play-maker for UConn, and Williams is the big man for ‘Zona.

 

On closer inspection, we took a look at Connecticut’s season in three parts.  The Huskies looked like a Final Four team in two of those three parts.  They began the season 10-0, including a blowout win over Kentucky in Hawaii.  They had a lackluster 11-9 middle.  Then, they caught lightning in a bottle, winning five games in five days to take the Big East Tournament title and won three games in the Big Dance to come into this game riding an eight-game winning streak.  Once again, they have looked like a Final Four team.

 

Arizona entered this tournament with a 4-3 mark in its final seven games.  The Wildcats narrowly escaped with wins over Memphis and Texas in the first week, but then they blew defending champion Duke off the floor Thursday night.  They dominated the Blue Devils inside and forced Duke to beat them from over the top.  Duke could not get enough good outside shots in the second half, and Arizona cruised to an easy win.

 

We believe that Connecticut’s backcourt is not that far from Duke’s in total talent, but the Huskies are much stronger inside where it counts.  Connecticut should win the battle of the boards in this game and pound on Derrick Williams enough to throw him off his game.  Arizona has overachieved getting to this point.  The Wildcats will be back in 2011-12 as a top contender for the Final Four, but they will have to settle for Elite Eight this year.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 74  Arizona 66

 

Sunday, March 27, 2011

2:20 PM EDT—Southwest Regional Final @ San Antonio

#1 Kansas 35-2 (23) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth 27-11 (-1)

Position	Kansas	Virginia Commonwealth
Coach	Bill Self	Shaka Smart
Center	(21) Markieff Morris 6-10 Jr.–13.6/8.2  59.6% FG/42.1% 3pt	(21) Jamie Skeen 6-9 Sr.–15.1/7.3  1.1 Blk
Forward	(22) Marcus Morris 6-9 Jr.–17.1/7.4  57.7% FG	(20) Bradford Burgess 6-6 Jr.–14.4/6.2  42.3% 3pt
Forward	(14) Tyrel Reed 6-3 Sr.–9.7/3.1  80.2% FT	(50) Ed Nixon 6-4 Sr.–7.2/2.6  1.9 Ast
Guard	(12) Brady Morningstar 6-4 Sr.–7.3/2.2  3.3 Ast/42.2% 3pt	(32) Brandon Rozzell 6-2 Sr.–11.8/2.3  1.4 Stl
Guard	(10) Tyshawn Taylor 6-3 Jr.–9.1/1.9  4.6 Ast	(12) Joey Rodriguez 5-10 Sr.–10.6/3.2  5.1 Ast/81.8% FT
6th	(32) Josh Selby 6-2 Fr. G–8.2/2.3  2.2 Ast	(23) Rob Brandenburg 6-2 Fr. G–5.2/1.8
7th	(00) Thomas Robinson 6-9 So.–7.8/6.6  60.1% FG	(10) Darius Theus 6-3 So. G–3.1/1.6  2.1 Ast

PiRate Criteria Stats

 

Team	Kansas	V C U
Pts	17.1	3.9
FG%	11.8	2
Reb	7.9	2.1
TO	0.8	-0.6
Stl	7.8	8.3
R+T	9.4	0.9
SOS	59	54
Road%	95	66
PiRate #	23	-1

 

This looks like an even bigger mismatch than Kansas’s Sweet 16 game, but VCU plays a feisty brand of basketball and can pull games out at the end with their pressure and herky-jerky style of play.

 

We anointed Kansas as our pick for the National Champion when the brackets came out two weeks ago, and the Jayhawks are the final power team we have left in the tournament.  KU possesses the same criteria as most of the past national champions.  The last team not to meet our minimum criteria that eventually won the national championship was this very same Kansas team in 1988.  We believe that on Sunday, the Jayhawks will restore some normalcy to this season’s Big Dance and prove to be the one Fred Astaire among a bunch of wannabes.

 

Kansas will not wilt under the pressure defense applied by VCU.  In fact, it will lead to a bunch of easy looks and a high shooting percentage.  The Jayhawks pass the ball like teams from the past, and they know how to hit open shots.  With Josh Selby possibly coming out of his shooting slump, we just cannot see another team defeating them this season.

 

For VCU, their real challenge will begin after the season ends.  Shaka Smart is certain to be in the mix in a number of vacant coaching jobs.  Tennessee, Missouri, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and others will be interested.

 

Prediction: Kansas 77  VCU 62

 

Sunday, March 27, 2011

5:05 PM EDT—East Regional Final @ Newark

#2 North Carolina 29-7 (16) vs. #4 Kentucky 28-8 (16)

Position	North Carolina	Kentucky
Coach	Roy Williams	John Calipari
Center	(44) Tyler Zeller 7-0 Jr.–15.6/7.2  54.0% FG	(55) Josh Harrellson 6-10 Sr.–7.5/8.8  1.6 Blk/61.2% FG
Forward	(31) John Henson 6-10 So.–11.9/10.1  3.3 Blk	(3) Terrence Jones 6-8 Fr.–15.9/8.7  1.9 Blk/1.6 Ast/1.1 Stl
Forward	(40) Harrison Barnes 6-8 Fr.–15.6/5.8  1.4 Ast	(34) DeAndre Liggins 6-6 Jr.–8.7/4.2  2.5 Ast/1.1 Stl
Guard	(1) Dexter Strickland 6-3 So.–7.4/3.1  2.2 Ast	(1) Darius Miller 6-7 Jr.–11.1/4.6  1.7 Ast
Guard	(5) Kendall Marshall 6-3 Fr.–6.2/2.1  6.2 Ast	(12) Brandon Knight 6-3 Fr.–17.2/3.8  4.2 Ast/79.9% FT
6th	(2) Leslie McDonald 6-4 So. G–7.1/2.2	(20) Doron Lamb 6-4 Fr. G–12.4/2.0  1.7 Ast
7th	(25) Justin Knox 6-9 Sr. F–4.5/3.2	(30) Eloy Vargas 6-10 Fr. F/C–1.6/2.0

 

PiRate Criteria Stats

Team	N. Carolina	Kentucky
Pts	9	12.2
FG%	4.7	6.9
Reb	6.5	4
TO	0.7	1.5
Stl	6.1	5.3
R+T	7.52	5.91
SOS	60	60
Road%	66	61
PiRate #	16	16

 

What we have here is the basketball equivalent of the Dodgers versus the Yankees.  Two of the top programs of all time face off for the second time this season.  In December, North Carolina edged the Wildcats by a deuce in Chapel Hill.

 

The Criteria score shows this game to be a tossup, but all five of us at the PiRate Ratings believe Kentucky is the clear-cut choice in this game.  John Calipari is on the verge of getting his third different school into the Final Four.  His teams always play better against an opponent once they have faced that opponent.  Against Florida, they learned after the first game how to slow down the Gators.  They learned how to stop them cold after the second game, and in the event they see them a fourth time, they will repeat it again.  That is getting a bit too far ahead.

 

North Carolina lacks the quickness to stop the Kentucky penetration, and if the Blue Mist hits at least 35% of their three-pointers in this game, they will advance to the Final Four.

 

North Carolina has a decided depth advantage, but the Tar Heels are not as deep as they once were.  With the longer time outs in this tournament, Kentucky can get by with six key players.

 

We see this game as one of spurts.  The Tar Heels will have two or three spurts, but Kentucky will have three or four.  We believe that UK will take the lead for good with five or six minutes left in the game.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 78  North Carolina 72

PiRate Ratings Sweet 16 Preview

Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament PiRate Criteria Ratings

Team	W – L	Pts	FG%	Reb	TO	Stl	R+T	SOS	Road%	PiRate #
Arizona	29-7	8.7	2.5	3.6	-0.1	5.2	4.52	55	63	4
Brigham Young	32-4	14.1	4.0	3.0	3.5	8.0	9.72	58	86	18
Butler	25-9	7.8	1.5	2.9	1.7	6.0	5.35	54	65	4
Connecticut	28-9	7.7	3.5	4.8	0.3	6.5	5.27	60	75	11
Duke	32-4	17.1	7.1	3.1	2.7	7.3	7.83	58	79	17
Florida	28-7	9.1	4.2	6.0	0.3	5.9	6.42	60	78	15
Florida State	23-10	7.3	7.7	4.6	-0.8	8.5	5.34	54	61	5
Kansas	34-2	17.1	11.8	7.9	0.8	7.8	9.40	59	95	23
Kentucky	27-8	12.2	6.9	4.0	1.5	5.3	5.91	60	60	16
Marquette	22-14	7.0	2.9	2.7	2.1	7.3	6.38	57	44	3
North Carolina	28-7	9.0	4.7	6.5	0.7	6.1	7.52	60	65	16
Ohio State	34-2	18.0	7.6	4.9	4.8	7.1	13.08	58	88	23
Richmond	28-7	9.2	6.0	-1.9	2.1	6.0	1.12	52	81	3
San Diego State	34-2	13.2	7.1	6.9	1.6	6.2	9.28	58	95	19
V C U	25-11	3.9	2.0	2.1	-0.6	8.3	0.90	54	65	-1
Wisconsin	25-8	9.9	1.8	3.8	2.1	3.5	5.56	57	53	9

 All Times EDT

Number in (Parentheses) indicates PiRate Criteria Rating

For a detailed explanation of the PiRate Criteria Rating, click on the following link:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/bracketnomics-505-2011-edition/

PiRate Criteria Numbers Updated To Reflect 1^st Three Round Results

Thursday, March 24, 2011

7:15 PM on CBS 

West Regional @ Anaheim

#2 San Diego State 34-2 (19) vs. #3 Connecticut 28-9 (11)

Connecticut faces the first team in the tournament that has the defensive capacity to slow down Kemba Walker.  If Walker has a below-average game, the Huskies’ shooting percentage will head too far south, because UConn does not shoot all that well.

 

The Aztecs can make life miserable on opposing shooters, so if they contain Walker, SDSU has the advantage at the other four positions on the floor.  Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas remind us somewhat of former UCLA greats Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe.

 

The Aztecs’ eventual downfall may come when they are exploited by a defense that forces them to beat them from outside.  Connecticut just may be able to pull that off, so this game cannot be considered a slam dunk for the #2 seed Aztecs.

 

Prediction: San Diego State 67  Connecticut 61

 

7:27 PM on TBS 

Southeast Regional @ New Orleans

#2 Florida 28-7 (15) vs. #3 Brigham Young 32-4 (18)

This one should be interesting, as Florida tries to get revenge for a first round overtime loss to BYU last year.

 

We did not have much faith in the Cougars after Brandon Davies was dismissed for the season.  BYU recovered in the second and third rounds, and the 22-point win over Gonzaga was quite impressive.

 

Still, we discount the Cougars by three points with the absence of Davies.  This makes this game a tossup in our eyes. 

 

Florida is playing inspired ball, but we still do not believe the Gators are on par with their prior two national champion teams.  Offensively, the Gators spread the ball around, and all five starters typically score double figure points.  Defensively, they are underneath, and they frequently find ways to pressure the ball out front.  However, the top defender, Kenny Boynton, may not be 100% in this game.  He has an important assignment.

 

That assignment happens to be guarding Jimmer Fredette.  If Fredette tops 30 points without taking 30 shots to do so, the Cougars could easily give the Mountain West Conference a second team in the Elite Eight.

 

We are split on this game, and we did not come to a conclusion which way to go.  So, we will stick with the higher-rated PiRate Criteria score and go with the Cougars.

 

Prediction: B Y U 82  Florida 78

 

9:45 PM on CBS

West Regional @ Anaheim

#1 Duke 32-4 (17) vs. #5 Arizona 29-7 (4)

With Kyrie Irving back in the fold, Duke has the best eight-deep roster in the nation.  We believe the Blue Devils are the third best team in the Sweet 16 with Irving back.  He scored 25 points in the two games in Charlotte in just 41 minutes, and he picked up some rebounds as well.

 

The Blue Devils’ only thing close to a liability is their defense at forward.  Kyle Singler, Miles Plumlee, and Ryan Kelly have trouble against sneaky fast opponents.

 

Arizona’s forwards have that quickness.  Derrick Williams is as important to the Wildcats as Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette are to their teams.  Jesse Perry only averages seven points per game, but he can take it to the basket against a slower defender.

 

Arizona’s weakness is their defense against power offense.  Duke’s slower forwards as well as center Mason Plumlee can take advantage of the Wildcats’ defensive deficiencies. 

 

Coach K deserves to be compared with John Wooden.  Wooden’s UCLA teams won four games in the NCAA Tournament to win the championship in a field of 22-25 teams.  Krzyzewski’s have been forced to win six in a field of 64, 65, and 68.  We believe he is worth an extra five to 10 points, and we will select Duke to make it to the Elite Eight.

 

Prediction: Duke 77  Arizona 68

 

9:57 PM on TBS

Southeast Regional @ New Orleans

#4 Wisconsin 25-8 (9) vs. #8 Butler 25-9 (4)

Pick against Butler at your own risk.  If the Bulldogs can beat Pittsburgh, there is no reason to believe they cannot return to the Final Four.

 

We did not believe Wisconsin could make it to the Sweet 16 either.  As many readers know, we have ties to U Dub, and this group of Badgers did not look strong enough to us to make it to the second week of the tournament.

 

The PiRate Criteria indicates that Wisconsin is the favorite, but with our internal numbers that we do not advertise, we rate this game as a 50-50 affair.

 

Butler has the experience in close games.  They keep finding a way to win.  However, Wisconsin is one of those tough teams that can neutralize what has been working for Coach Brad Stevens’ Bulldogs.

 

This game could very well come down to the final few possessions, and the winner may struggle to top 55 points.  We do not see any more than 100 field goal attempts, and as few as eight players could score points in this game.

 

Matt Howard can force Wisconsin to bring a big man outside, and that will allow Andrew Smith to work with a little more clearance inside.  If Shelvin Mack keeps his hot streak going, Butler can win this one.

 

If Howard is not on target, and the Badgers do not have to respect his outside shooting ability, Coach Bo Ryan’s team will pack it in, control the boards, and then work patiently to set up Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer.  The tandem could score 40 points with the rest of the team adding just 15, and it could be enough to win this game.

 

Prediction: Wisconsin 55  Butler 54

 

Friday, March 25, 2011

 

7:15 PM on CBS

East Regional @ Newark

#2 North Carolina 28-7 (16) vs. #11 Marquette 22-14 (3)

We do not believe the Tar Heels are Final Four candidates this season.  No matter which team wins the game in the adjacent bracket, we see the Tar Heels losing in the Elite Eight.  However, the margin should be slim.

 

This is the Sweet 16 game, and Coach Roy Williams’ team is more than talented enough to advance to Sunday.  With the outside shooting of Kendall Marshall and Leslie McDonald combined with the take-it-to-the-hoop skills of Harrison Barnes and John Henson and the mandatory doubling down on big center Tyler Zeller, North Carolina will score a lot of points in this game.

 

Marquette’s only hope is for three players to be hot from the field, because Buzz Williams’ Golden Eagles will have to outscore North Carolina to win this game.

 

Marquette cannot go head-to-head inside and win this game.  They will have to hit 50% from the field to keep this game close.  From among Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom, Jae Crowder, and Dwight Buycks three of these players will need to score 15-25 points each.  We see the Golden Eagles coming up short in this one.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 82  Marquette 79

 

7:27 PM on TBS

Southwest Regional @ San Antonio

#1 Kansas 34-2 (23) vs. #12 Richmond 29-7 (3)

Richmond apparently was seeded a few spots to low.  The Spiders have shown that the Atlantic 10 Conference is just below the top six or seven conferences in the nation and well above the average mid-major league.

 

Chris Mooney’s team can shoot the ball and prevent the opponent from shooting the ball.  With an inside-outside punch in big forward Justin Harper and sharpshooting guard Kevin Anderson, Richmond can score points consistently, albeit at a slower pace. 

 

Two things will do the Spiders in Friday night.  They are vulnerable against power teams and teams that can get on the boards for offensive rebounds.  Xavier and Old Dominion showed the blueprint for beating Richmond.

 

Kansas can take that blueprint and build a super foundation.  The Jayhawks are the best passing team in the tournament, and Coach Bill Self’s big men know how to move and get open to receive those passes.  Marcus and Markieff Morris can hit the boards at both ends, and Brady Morningstar and Tyshawn Taylor know how to get the ball to them.  KU will advance to play for a spot in the Final Four on Sunday.

 

Prediction: Kansas 73  Richmond 62

 

9:45 PM on CBS

East Regional @ Newark

#1 Ohio State 34-2 (23) vs. #4 Kentucky 27-8 (16)

This is the first contest in the tournament where both teams are rated worthy of making the Elite Eight. 

 

Ohio State has actually moved a couple of percentage points ahead of Kansas for the top overall Criteria score.  The Buckeyes are strong where Kentucky is strong, but Coach Thad Matta’s team also has strength were Kentucky has been vulnerable.  Tough perimeter defense forced George Mason to wilt in the Round of 32, and in William Buford, Jon Diebler, and David Lighty, Ohio State can cut off the perimeter game of most teams. 

 

With the great Jared Sullinger roaming the low post and baseline areas, Kentucky has to dedicate a big man to roam with him.  That will be the Wildcats’ downfall Friday night.  If Terrence Jones is forced to guard Sullinger, expect Josh Harrellson to have a hard time defending the paint against Ohio State’s quicker forwards and slashing guards.  If Harrellson goes out to guard Sullinger, he will have a hard time guarding the nation’s top big man.  Coach John Calipari will have to pick his poison.

 

Kentucky will need a great night from Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb.  If the two players and Darius Miller do not combine for 50 points, Kentucky will be heading back to Lexington, and the sports fans in the Commonwealth can turn their attention to Uncle Mo and the first Saturday in May.

Prediction: Ohio State 76  Kentucky 69

 

9:57 PM on TBS

#10 Florida State 23-10 (5) vs. #12 Virginia Commonwealth 25-11 (-1)

This game guarantees that one double-digit seed will make it to the Elite Eight, and Kansas fans must be quite happy about it.

 

We have two teams that have found a new gear in their engine at the most opportune time.  VCU was not even supposed to be in this tournament after failing to win the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament.  Instead, the Rams just became the first team to win three NCAA Tournament games in less than a week since Texas Western in 1966.  Texas Western went on to upset Kentucky and win the National Championship.  VCU is not Texas Western.  That TWU (Now UTEP) team was rated in the top five in the nation.

 

Florida State has not been to the Final Four since Hugh Durham took the Seminoles to the 1972 National Title game.  This team is not in that FSU team’s league.

 

So, what do we have here?  Florida State is a team that in most years would have been fortunate to win one game.  VCU is a team that in most years would probably be playing this week for a trip to Madison Square Garden and the NIT semi-finals.

 

VCU has a negative PiRate Criteria score, but it is moving close to zero.  Still, we cannot recall a negative criteria score making it to the Elite Eight.

 

Note: Both FSU Coach Leonard Hamilton and VCU Coach Shaka Smart are being mentioned as possible candidates for the vacant Tennessee job.

 

Prediction: Florida State 65  Virginia Commonwealth 60

 

Coming Saturday Morning: We will preview the Southeast and West Regional Final games.