2016 Conference USA Football Ratings Preview

Conference USA has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years because the league has lost several teams with historic football success. At one time, Houston, Tulsa, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis were members of the league.

In current times, CUSA has been able to barely avoid the basement as the weakest conference, maintaining a small edge over the Sun Belt.

The league race should be competitive this year, as three teams appear to be talented enough to contend for the East Division title. The West looks less competitive, but after prohibitive favorite Southern Mississippi, there are two or three teams capable of making a surprise run to the division title.

In the last two years, Marshall and Western Kentucky have been contenders for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowls, but no CUSA team figures to be in contention this year.

Here is a look at the Pre-season media poll. No vote counts were issued or for that matter, the media did not vote on overall conference champion.

CUSA-East
#	Team
1	Middle Tennessee
2	Western Kentucky
3	Marshall
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Florida Int’l.
6	Old Dominion
7	Charlotte
CUSA-West
#	Team
1	Southern Miss.
2	Louisiana Tech
3	Rice
4	UTEP
5	UTSA
6	North Texas

This is how the PiRate Ratings see the divisional races

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.1	93.1	99.8	97.3
Marshall	92.3	96.7	94.1	94.4
Middle Tennessee	92.0	94.6	93.1	93.3
Old Dominion	85.7	89.1	86.3	87.0
Florida Atlantic	84.8	88.5	86.7	86.7
Florida Int’l.	82.3	89.5	84.2	85.3
Charlotte	72.9	81.0	74.5	76.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Miss.	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
CUSA Averages	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.3

 

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings alone.

Conference USA Projected Standings
East Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Marshall	7-1	10-3 *	Hawaii
Western Kentucky	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	Heart of Dallas
Florida Int’l.	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Florida Atlantic	3-5	5-7
Charlotte	0-8	1-11
West Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Southern Miss.	8-0	10-3	Boca Raton
Rice	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	Arizona
UTSA	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
North Texas	0-8	1-11
* Marshall to win CUSA Championship Game

Next Preview: Wednesday, August 17–Mid-American Conference Preview

 

 

 

 

 

2016 Sun Belt Conference Football Ratings Preview

The PiRate Ratings kick off its 2016 college football coverage today with the first of 11 previews. We will preview conferences in order of lowest overall average rating to highest, so as we have every year since this league’s inception, we begin with the Sun Belt Conference today.

Last year, Arkansas State ventured to Appalachian State to decide the conference championship in early November. Both teams were undefeated in conference play at the time, and Appy State was a 10-point home favorite. The Mountaineers led 21-14 just before the half, but the Red Wolves scored 26 straight points and won 40-27 and ran the table to finish 8-0 in the league.

This year, the same two teams, plus third place Georgia Southern will contend for the 2016 SBC crown. The PiRates believe four additional teams will compete for bowl eligibility, with three becoming successful, and four teams will try to stay out of the basement and go winless in the league, and possibly winless overall.

With the more favorable FBS vs. FCS schedules this year, it is our opinion that considerably more than the needed teams will be bowl eligible, so this league is likely to see at least one team end the season bowl eligible and not receive a bowl invitation.

Here is how the Sun Belt Media predicted the order of finish in the pre-season media roundup.

2016 Sun Belt Conference Media Poll
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total
1	Appalachian St.	5	114
2	Arkansas St.	5	110
3	Georgia Southern	1	98
4	Georgia St.	0	73
5t	UL-Lafayette	0	70
5t	Troy	0	70
7	South Alabama	0	62
8	Idaho	0	48
9	New Mexico St.	0	37
10	Texas St.	0	30
11	UL-Monroe	0	14

The Beginning PiRate Numbers differ very little from the official poll.

Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	95.5	95.7	97.1	96.1
Arkansas St.	91.9	94.2	94.4	93.5
Georgia Southern	93.0	91.7	95.5	93.4
Troy	83.6	90.2	85.2	86.4
Georgia St.	81.7	87.1	83.9	84.2
Idaho	78.1	85.2	79.7	81.0
UL-Lafayette	76.3	86.8	78.7	80.6
South Alabama	75.3	85.2	76.2	78.9
New Mexico St.	73.7	76.5	74.9	75.0
UL-Monroe	67.9	73.3	68.3	69.8
Texas St.	68.8	69.5	69.5	69.3
Sun Belt Averages	80.5	85.1	82.1	82.6

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings above.

Sun Belt Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Arkansas St.	8-0	9-3	New Orleans
Appalachian St.	7-1	9-3	GoDaddy
Georgia Southern	7-1	8-4	Cammelia
Troy	5-3	7-5	Cure
UL-Lafayette	5-3	6-6	[Independence] *
Idaho	5-3	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Georgia St.	3-5	5-7
South Alabama	2-6	3-9
UL-Monroe	1-7	2-10
New Mexico St.	1-7	1-11
Texas St.	0-8	1-11

*  This is an at-large bowl bid

Next Preview: Tuesday, August 16–Conference USA

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 26-30, 2010

PiRate Picks Continue The Winning Streak

 Eight for eight!  Yes, we have now had a winning weekend for all eight weeks of the season.  Our most recent showing produced a 6-3 record against the spread.

 Unlike previous weeks where the NFL games did it for us, it was our college sweetheart teaser plays that made it another profitable weekend.  We know from e-mails that many of you like only the college games.  You have told us that you are only breaking even playing our college games.  Well, you got a 4-0 weekend by playing our four college picks.

Our record for the year is now 43-19-2 for 69.4%.  We don’t officially break our picks down by college and pro picks, because there could be weeks where we combine college and pro games in a teaser or moneyline parlay.  While some of you follow us strictly for our college selections, we issue our weekly selections to be played in total.  We also advise against playing an even amount of games, because finishing with a .500 mark against the spread is a losing proposition.

Here are how our picks finished.

1. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Navy +16 ½ vs. Notre Dame; Maryland +15 vs. Boston College; Minnesota +18 vs. Penn State

WON

2. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Northwestern +14 ½ vs. Michigan State; Syracuse +23 vs. West Virginia; Iowa State +31 vs. Texas

WON

3. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Arkansas Pk vs. Ole Miss; Hawaii +7 vs. Utah State; California +7 vs. Arizona State

WON

. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Alabama -7 vs. Tennessee; South Carolina -1 ½ vs. Vanderbilt; Georgia +5 vs. Kentucky

WON

5. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins

Lost

6. Atlanta Falcons -3 ½ vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

7. Chicago Bears -3 vs. Washington Redskins

Lost

8. San Diego Chargers -2 ½ vs. New England

Lost

9. Oakland +7 ½ vs. Denver

WON

A Look At The BCS Conferences

A C C

Atlantic Division

Florida State plays at North Carolina State Thursday night, and the winner will be in control in the division.  We think that the Wolfpack could pull off the minor upset, but NCSU has three tough road games to play.  They will not go 3-0 playing at Clemson, North Carolina, and Maryland.  So, we are sticking with our guns here and going with the Seminoles to win the division at 7-1 in the league.

Maryland has just one loss in conference play, and they finish the season by hosting Florida State and North Carolina State.  The Terrapins must still play at Miami, so it will be close to impossible to win the division outright.  There is a chance they could figure in a tie at 6-2, but we believe they will fall to 5-3 or 4-4.

Clemson is out of the picture in the division race, but we believe the Tigers will get to eight wins and garner a decent bowl.

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech looks pretty after beginning 0-2.  The Hokies have run roughshod over six consecutive opponents.  They get two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech, and then the only tough game left to play is the November 20 contest at Miami.  We give VT a great chance of running the table.

Miami should finish second in the division, while North Carolina and Georgia Tech go 4-4.  Virginia is lurking in the shadows.  The Cavaliers were not supposed to contend this season, yet they are 3-4 overall.  UVA has games with Duke, Maryland, and Boston College, so there is an outside chance they could finish 6-6.  We think they will come up a bit short.

1. BCS Bowl (Orange): Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State

3. Champs Sports Bowl: Miami

4. Sun Bowl: Clemson

5. Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina State

6. Music City Bowl: North Carolina

7. Independence Bowl: Maryland

8. Eagle Bank Bowl: Georgia Tech

 Big East

This conference’s automatic BCS Bowl invitation should be revoked this year and given to the Mountain West Conference.  Nobody in this league even deserves the Champs Sports Bowl Bid!

The race is still up for grabs between everybody but Connecticut.  We do not see any team going 6-1.  5-2 should be enough to win the league.  Pittsburgh and Syracuse seem to have the best chances of getting to 5-2, but we think Cincinnati has a good chance of catching fire and winning four of five to get to 5-2 as well.  The Bearcats have home games with Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt, and road games against West Virginia and Connecticut.

 West Virginia has the talent to win the league, but they play too inconsistently.  We think the Mountaineers could be headed to a 4-3 league mark.  South Florida should join them at that level, and we believe Louisville could surprise a couple of teams and get there as well.  It all adds up to horrendous mediocrity.  If Pitt, Syracuse, and Cincinnati end at 5-2, then the Bearcats will sneak into a BCS Bowl at 7-5 overall.

 1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Cincinnati

2. Champs Sports Bowl: Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia

4. Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame

5. PapaJohns Bowl: South Florida

6. St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh

At-Large: Las Vegas Bowl: Louisville fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Big Ten

You will notice that our ratings fail to rank 8-0 Michigan State in the PiRate Top 25.  The Spartans have sort of fallen through the cracks in the way our computer system rates teams.  A win at Iowa is almost assured to move MSU up several spots, but we are unenthusiastic about calling for that win.  Thus, we do not believe a Big Ten team will play for the national championship. 

We feel the Spartans will finish 7-1 in league play, finishing in a three-way tie with Iowa and Wisconsin.  The tiebreaking procedure would give Michigan State the Rose Bowl bid.  We believe that an 11-1 Wisconsin team would receive one of the at-large BCS Bowl Bids over a 12-0 TCU/Utah team (assuming Boise State finishes 12-0 as well).

Ohio State must still visit Iowa, so we believe the Buckeyes could lose another game.  Should Ohio State beat Iowa and finish 7-1 along with Wisconsin and Michigan State, then the one with the highest BCS rating will get the bid.  It is too early to predict that.

1. BCS Bowl (Rose): Michigan State

1a. At-Large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Wisconsin

2. Capitol One Bowl: Ohio State

3. Outback Bowl: Iowa

4. Gator Bowl: Michigan

5. Insight Bowl: Illinois

6. Texas Bowl: Northwestern

7. Dallas Football Classic: Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: No available team

Big 12

Missouri must face Nebraska in Lincoln this week.  Coming off the major upset over the number one BCS team tends to make one believe that the Tigers will bounce and fall to the Cornhuskers.  There is one thing in their favor; the officiating should be as biased against Nebraska as it was in the game with Texas.  Any close call will go in Mizzou’s favor.

 We still believe that Bo’s boys will prevail and eliminate the last undefeated Big 12 team.  That would give Nebraska the division title in a tie.

 As for the South, Oklahoma should still win and finish 7-1, but don’t count out Oklahoma State just yet.  The Cowboys have a shot.

 A hearty congratulation goes out to Art Briles at Baylor.  The Bears are now bowl eligible at 6-2, and they actually remain in contention for the South Division flag.  They would have to win at Texas, at Oklahoma State, and beat Texas A&M at home before they would get Oklahoma at home to conclude the regular season.

 There are going to be several teams contending for their important sixth win and bowl eligibility.  We tend to believe Colorado has played themselves out of the mix, and thus Dan Hawkins’ days in Boulder are numbered.  Iowa State should handle Kansas, but then the Cyclones face Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri to close out the regular season.  They need two wins, and they could beat Colorado, but this figures to be Hawkins’ last home game.

1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

2. Cotton Bowl: Missouri

3. Alamo Bowl: Nebraska

4. Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State

5. Holiday Bowl: Texas

6. Texas Bowl: Baylor

7. Pinstripe Bowl: Texas A&M

8. Dallas Football Classic: Texas Tech

At-large Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Kansas State fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Pac-10

If Oregon knocks off Southern Cal this weekend, then we believe the Ducks will run the table and secure a spot in the National Championship Game.  If USC wins, then the Ducks will quack in the Rose Bowl instead.  We are going to say Oregon goes 12-0 (we may possibly play against them in the official picks against the spread, so don’t take this as a statement that we are picking Oregon this week).

There is a lot of mediocrity in the second half of the standings, and the Trojans are not bowl-eligible this year due to probation.  Throw in the possibility that Stanford could earn an at-large BCS bowl bid, and there is not much chance the league will be able to fill its bowl allotments.  We believe they could fall two spots short.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Oregon

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Stanford

2. Alamo Bowl: Arizona

3. Holiday Bowl: California

4. Sun Bowl: Oregon State

5. Las Vegas Bowl: No Team Available

6. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: No Team Available

S E C

Auburn rests at the top of the BCS standings after beating LSU, but we don’t believe the Tigers will be there on November 28.  We think they will lose to Alabama in the season finale but qualify as an at-large BCS Bowl member.

Alabama could sneak back into the number two spot by winning out, omitting a 12-0 Boise State team that has a virtual road win over another BCS Bowl team.  The Broncos could still win the AP National Championship by winning big in their bowl.

LSU and Arkansas should both finish with better records than any East Division team.  Mississippi State could as well, meaning the top five teams come from the West Division.

The East race is up for grabs.  Georgia began the season 0-3 in league play, but we feel like the Bulldogs will finish 4-4 and grab a piece of the flag.  Florida and South Carolina look to be heading to a 4-4 finish, assuming the Gators beat the Gamecocks, and the Gamecocks lose to Arkansas.  If Kentucky can upset Mississippi State in Starkville, then the Wildcats will have an excellent chance at going 4-4 in league play as well.  Vanderbilt should be an easy win, and Tennessee would be very winnable for the Wildcats.  UK has lost 25 in a row to the Vols, and this looks like the year it should end.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Alabama

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Rose): Auburn

2. Capitol One Bowl: Arkansas

3. Cotton Bowl: L S U

4. Outback Bowl: Florida

5. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia

6. Gator Bowl: Mississippi State

7. Music City Bowl: Kentucky

8. Liberty Bowl: South Carolina

9. PapaJohns Bowl: No Team Available

The PiRate Ratings Top 25 For October 25, 2010

 

Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Oregon	132.8	7	0
2	Boise State	129.8	6	0
3	Alabama	128.6	7	1
4	T C U	128.4	7	0
5	Oklahoma	125.4	6	1
6	Auburn	123.5	8	0
7	Ohio State	123.5	7	1
8	Florida State	123.0	6	1
9	Arkansas	121.7	5	2
10	Virginia Tech	121.6	6	2
11	Stanford	121.4	6	1
12	Iowa	121.1	5	2
13	Missouri	120.9	7	0
14	South Carolina	120.8	5	2
15	Nebraska	120.8	6	1
16	Utah	120.2	7	0
17	Miami (Fla)	119.8	5	2
18	Wisconsin	119.3	7	1
19	Arizona	118.9	6	1
20	North Carolina	116.7	4	3
21	Southern Cal	116.1	5	2
22	California	115.7	4	3
23	Georgia	115.6	4	4
24	Clemson	115.0	4	3
25	Mississippi State	114.9	6	2
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

  

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	4-0	6-1	123.0
Clemson	2-2	4-3	115.0
North Carolina State	2-1	5-2	105.2
Boston College	0-4	2-5	102.1
Wake Forest	1-3	2-5	98.8
Maryland	2-1	5-2	96.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	4-0	6-2	121.6
Miami-FL	3-1	5-2	119.8
North Carolina	2-2	4-3	116.7
Georgia Tech	3-2	5-3	111.9
Virginia	0-3	3-4	93.2
Duke	0-4	1-6	90.3

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	1-1	5-2	111.7
Pittsburgh	2-0	4-3	111.0
Cincinnati	1-1	3-4	108.2
South Florida	1-2	4-3	104.5
Connecticut	0-2	3-4	104.0
Louisville	1-1	4-3	102.2
Syracuse	2-1	5-2	100.8
Rutgers	1-1	4-3	93.1

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	3-1	7-1	123.5
Iowa	2-1	5-2	121.1
Wisconsin	3-1	7-1	119.3
Michigan State	4-0	8-0	114.7
Michigan	1-2	5-2	107.6
Illinois	2-2	4-3	104.5
Penn State	1-2	4-3	104.2
Northwestern	1-2	5-2	96.3
Purdue	2-1	4-3	93.4
Minnesota	0-4	1-7	93.1
Indiana	0-3	4-3	89.8

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Missouri	3-0	7-0	120.9
Nebraska	2-1	6-1	120.8
Colorado	0-3	3-4	101.7
Kansas State	2-2	5-2	98.3
Iowa State	2-2	4-4	93.4
Kansas	0-3	2-5	87.4
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	2-1	6-1	125.4
Texas	2-2	4-3	114.8
Texas A&M	1-2	4-3	112.8
Oklahoma State	2-1	6-1	108.8
Baylor	3-1	6-2	107.0
Texas Tech	2-3	4-3	104.5

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	3-0	5-2	101.5
East Carolina	4-0	5-2	96.8
Southern Mississippi	2-1	5-2	95.4
U A B	1-2	2-5	89.2
Marshall	0-3	1-6	81.6
Memphis	0-4	1-6	71.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	3-1	4-3	99.4
S M U	3-1	4-4	93.8
Tulsa	2-2	4-3	93.7
Rice	1-3	2-6	83.6
U T E P	2-3	5-3	82.4
Tulane	1-2	3-4	78.0

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-4	105.8
Navy		5-2	104.9
Army		4-3	90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-1	6-2	93.7
Ohio U	4-1	5-3	91.4
Miami (O)	3-1	4-4	85.8
Kent St.	2-2	3-4	85.3
Buffalo	1-2	2-5	77.6
Bowling Green	0-4	1-7	76.3
Akron	0-4	0-8	64.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	4-0	6-2	98.9
Toledo	4-0	5-3	86.2
Central Michigan	1-4	2-6	84.4
Western Michigan	2-1	3-4	83.0
Ball State	1-3	2-6	76.2
Eastern Michigan	1-3	1-7	69.7

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	4-0	8-0	128.4
Utah	4-0	7-0	120.2
Air Force	3-2	5-3	105.1
S. D. State	2-1	5-2	99.6
B Y U	2-2	3-5	97.3
Wyoming	0-4	2-6	91.6
Colo. State	1-3	2-6	85.5
UNLV	1-2	1-6	85.4
New Mexico	0-3	0-7	74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	4-0	7-0	132.8
Stanford	3-1	6-1	121.4
Arizona	3-1	6-1	118.9
Southern Cal	2-2	5-2	116.1
California	2-2	4-3	115.7
Oregon St.	2-1	3-3	113.4
Washington	2-2	3-4	106.8
U C L A	1-3	3-4	104.8
Arizona St.	1-3	3-4	104.3
Washington State	0-5	1-7	92.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	3-2	5-2	120.8
Georgia	3-3	4-4	115.6
Florida	2-3	4-3	114.7
Kentucky	1-4	4-4	107.9
Tennessee	0-4	2-5	98.1
Vanderbilt	1-3	2-5	93.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	4-1	7-1	128.6
Auburn	5-0	8-0	123.5
Arkansas	2-2	5-2	121.7
Mississippi State	2-2	6-2	114.9
L S U	4-1	7-1	113.9
Ole Miss	1-3	3-4	105.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-0	4-2	91.2
Middle Tennessee	2-1	3-4	85.9
Florida International	2-0	2-4	85.6
Arkansas State	3-2	3-5	82.1
Florida Atlantic	0-3	1-5	77.4
Western Kentucky	1-2	1-6	76.6
North Texas	1-3	1-6	75.8
U. of Louisiana	2-3	2-5	75.6
Louisiana-Monroe	2-2	3-4	74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	2-0	6-0	129.8
Nevada	1-1	6-1	107.2
Hawaii	4-0	6-2	103.2
Fresno State	3-1	5-2	96.7
Louisiana Tech	2-1	3-4	94.5
Idaho	1-1	4-3	92.3
Utah State	0-3	2-5	91.0
San Jose State	0-3	1-7	79.3
New Mexico State	0-3	1-6	71.8

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, October 26
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
BOISE STATE	Louisiana Tech	39.3	49-10
Thursday, October 28
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Florida State	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	14.8	35-20
Friday, October 29
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
West Virginia	CONNECTICUT	4.7	28-23
Saturday, October 30
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARKANSAS	Vanderbilt	31.4	41-10
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	15.0	35-20
Arizona	U C L A	11.1	28-17
IOWA STATE	Kansas	9.0	23-14
Northwestern	INDIANA	3.5	31-27
WESTERN KENTUCKY	North Texas	3.3	34-31
Clemson	BOSTON COLLEGE	9.9	27-17
MARYLAND	Wake Forest	1.1	26-25
Auburn	OLE MISS	15.4	42-27
NEBRASKA	Missouri	3.4	27-24
OKLAHOMA	Colorado	27.2	41-14
OREGON STATE	California	0.7	28-27
PITTSBURGH	Louisville	11.8	26-14
TEXAS A&M	Texas Tech	11.3	38-27
TEXAS	Baylor	10.8	31-20
Miami (Fl)	VIRGINIA	23.6	34-10
Stanford	WASHINGTON	11.6	35-23
MISSISSIPPI STATE	Kentucky	10.0	34-24
ILLINOIS	Purdue	14.1	31-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA	East Carolina	7.7	35-27
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	10.4	23-13
Florida Int’l	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	5.7	27-21
IOWA	Michigan State	9.9	31-21
Oklahoma State	KANSAS STATE	7.5	38-30
Troy	LOUISIANA-MONROE	14.5	35-20
NEVADA	Utah State	19.2	40-21
SOUTH CAROLINA	Tennessee	25.7	38-12
SOUTHERN MISS	U  a  b	9.2	35-26
Northern Illinois	WESTERN MICHIGAN	12.9	34-21
TEMPLE	Akron	31.3	41-10
OHIO U	Louisiana-Lafayette	18.8	31-12
KENT STATE	Ball State	11.6	32-20
San Diego State	WYOMING	5.0	31-26
NOTRE DAME	Tulsa	15.6	40-24
MARSHALL	U t e p	2.2	30-28
Georgia (Jacksonville)	Florida	0.9	17-16
Miami (O)	BUFFALO	5.7	23-17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Bowling Green	11.1	34-23
NAVY	Duke	17.6	38-20
S m u	TULANE	13.3	37-24
San Jose State	NEW MEXICO STATE	5.0	31-26
Toledo	EASTERN MICHIGAN	14.0	35-21
COLORADO STATE	New Mexico	14.0	24-10
Houston	MEMPHIS	25.3	35-10
Utah	AIR FORCE	11.6	32-20
Oregon	SOUTHERN CAL	12.7	41-28
Ohio State	MINNESOTA	27.4	34-7
PENN STATE	Michigan	0.1	24-24 to ot
T c u	U N L V	40.0	47-7
HAWAII	Idaho	14.9	42-27

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Ratings Spreads

 

Tuesday, October 26
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
BOISE STATE	Louisiana Tech	45-14	45-17
Thursday, October 28
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
Florida State	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	31-26	27-31
Friday, October 29
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
West Virginia	CONNECTICUT	27-21	27-16
Saturday, October 30
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
ARKANSAS	Vanderbilt	31-10	38-10
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	34-17	31-20
Arizona	U C L A	27-17	34-17
IOWA STATE	Kansas	31-12	35-13
Northwestern	INDIANA	35-32	37-30
WESTERN KENTUCKY	North Texas	38-31	41-24
Clemson	BOSTON COLLEGE	33-24	32-14
MARYLAND	Wake Forest	28-19	28-20
Auburn	OLE MISS	38-26	42-24
NEBRASKA	Missouri	28-26	27-24
OKLAHOMA	Colorado	38-17	45-14
OREGON STATE	California	28-27	31-21
PITTSBURGH	Louisville	24-14	23-17
TEXAS A&M	Texas Tech	34-28	35-31
TEXAS	Baylor	28-24	27-24
Miami (Fl)	VIRGINIA	31-14	30-17
Stanford	WASHINGTON	38-28	40-24
MISSISSIPPI STATE	Kentucky	33-24	27-25
ILLINOIS	Purdue	36-21	34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA	East Carolina	32-27	31-27
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	23-16	21-17
Florida Int’l	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	31-24	30-20
IOWA	Michigan State	31-26	27-26
Oklahoma State	KANSAS STATE	34-31	38-30
Troy	LOUISIANA-MONROE	31-20	37-13
NEVADA	Utah State	49-23	48-27
SOUTH CAROLINA	Tennessee	31-12	31-13
SOUTHERN MISS	U  a  b	40-28	41-31
Northern Illinois	WESTERN MICHIGAN	30-21	35-16
TEMPLE	Akron	37-7	41-7
OHIO U	Louisiana-Lafayette	33-14	35-19
KENT STATE	Ball State	30-21	31-21
San Diego State	WYOMING	29-24	28-19
NOTRE DAME	Tulsa	38-30	38-34
MARSHALL	U t e p	26-25	27-23
Florida	Georgia (Jacksonville)	20-19	14-23
Miami (O)	BUFFALO	28-26	30-20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Bowling Green	34-24	33-21
NAVY	Duke	38-19	37-20
S m u	TULANE	31-24	27-21
San Jose State	NEW MEXICO STATE	27-22	20-24
Toledo	EASTERN MICHIGAN	37-21	38-17
COLORADO STATE	New Mexico	34-17	34-17
Houston	MEMPHIS	31-14	31-16
Utah	AIR FORCE	28-20	31-10
Oregon	SOUTHERN CAL	35-27	38-28
Ohio State	MINNESOTA	34-10	44-10
Michigan	PENN STATE	28-28 to ot	30-26
T c u	U N L V	42-7	48-0
HAWAII	Idaho	41-27	44-27

 

PiRate Bowl Look

 

Bowl	Conference	Conference	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or 5	WAC (#3?)	San Diego St. 8-4	vs.	La. Tech 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	WAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4	vs.	Nevada 9-3
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1 or 2	C-USA #5	Troy 9-3	vs.	Tulsa 7-5
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	C-USA #4	Pittsburgh 7-5	vs.	S M U 7-6
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac 10 #5	Utah 12-0	vs.	(Louisville 7-5)
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Navy or WAC	T C U 11-1	vs.	Navy 8-4
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3	C-USA #2	Hawaii 10-3	vs.	East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	MAC #1	(Army 7-5)	vs.	Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	MWC #3	Maryland 7-5	vs.	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	ACC #3	Syracuse 9-3	vs.	Miami (F) 9-3
Insight	Big 12 #4	Big 10 #4 or 5	Oklahoma St. 10-2	vs.	Illinois 7-5
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	C-USA #6	Georgia Tech 6-6	vs.	Houston 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Baylor 7-5	vs.	Northwestern 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Pac 10 #2	Nebraska 11-2	vs.	Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	MWC #4 or 5	Southern Miss. 8-4	vs.	B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Big 12 #7	Notre Dame 6-6	vs.	Texas A&M 6-6
Music City	SEC # 7	ACC #6	Kentucky 7-5	vs.	North Carolina 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Pac 10 #3	Texas 7-5	vs.	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5	Big East #3	N. Carolina St. 8-4	vs.	West Va. 8-4
Sun	ACC #4	Pac 10 #4	Clemson 8-4	vs.	Oregon St. 6-6
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	C-USA #1	South Carolina 7-5	vs.	Central Florida 10-2
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	ACC #2	Georgia 7-6	vs.	Florida St. 10-3
Dallas Football Classic	Big 10 #7	Big 12 #8	Penn State 6-6	vs.	Texas Tech 6-6
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Big 10 #3	Florida 7-5	vs.	Iowa 10-2
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Ohio State 10-2	vs.	Arkansas 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	SEC #6	Michigan 8-4	vs.	Miss. State 8-4
Rose	BCS Pac10	BCS Big 10	Auburn 11-1	vs.	Michigan St. 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	BCS At-Large	Oklahoma 12-1	vs.	Cincinnati 7-5
Orange	BCS ACC	BCS At-Large	Virginia Tech 11-2	vs.	Boise St. 12-0
Sugar	BCS SEC	BCS At-Large	Wisconsin 11-1	vs.	Stanford 11-1
G M A C	Sunbelt #1 or 2	MAC #2	Middle Tenn. 7-5	vs.	Temple 9-3
Cotton	Big 12 #2	SEC #3 or 4	Missouri 11-1	vs.	L S U 9-3
Papajohns.com	Big East #5	SEC #8 or 9	South Florida 7-5	vs.	(Miami (O)) 8-5
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	WAC	(Kansas State 7-5)	vs.	Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	*** BCS #2 ***	Oregon 12-0	vs.	Alabama 12-1

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 21-23, 2010

Another Winning Week Against The Spread

Seven for seven!  It has been a number of years since we started out with seven consecutive winning weeks.  The parity in the NFL has made sweetheart teasers much easier to play this year, but we decided to play straight up this past week.  We still won, finishing 5-2 for the week and making our record for the season 37-16-2.  Let’s take a look at how it went:

 

1. Miami (O) +13 vs. Central Michigan

WON 

As we told all of those who purchased our picks, we thought the wrong team was a double-digit favorite.  The populace getting action on this game went on recent year data.  Yes, CMU was a league power under Brian Kelly and Butch Jones, going 38-17 in the prior four seasons and winning two bowl games.  The Chippewas lost to Ball State a couple weeks ago! 

 

Miami won two games or less three of the previous four seasons, including a 1-11 mark last year.  They have not had a winning season since Josh Betts was a junior in Oxford.  However, this year, the Redhawks are a prime contender in the MAC East.  We picked this “upset” outright. 

2. Georgia -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

 

Those of you who have followed our picks for awhile know we do not consider any games a “lock of the week”, “four-star pick,” “guaranteed game of the year,” etc.  We treat every selection equally, as one we think should win and nothing else.  However, we did state that this line was a joke and could be a mortgage-burning game. 

We called for Georgia to win by four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs won 43-0.  This game fell under three major categories as a game to consider.  First, Georgia won by 27 at home over a conference foe that was not an arch-rival the week before and then stayed at home to face a weaker rival the following week.  Second, the weaker opponent won over a patsy at home the week before and had to play a much stronger opponent on the road the following week.  Third, every facet of play favored Georgia—GA rush vs. VU rush defense; GA pass vs. VU pass defense; GA rush defense vs. VU rush; GA pass defense vs. VU pass; and special teams. 

 

3. Eastern Michigan +14 ½ vs. Ball State

WON 

It may not have been the politically correct thing to state Thursday to those who purchased our picks, but we said, “this was a play against Coach Stan Parrish.  Poor Stan came into this game with a career coaching record of 6-45-1.  Even against a team with an 18-game losing streak, we could not see Ball State winning by more than two touchdowns.  We knew that Eastern Michigan would enter this game with confidence and play like it was their one chance to win a game this season.  We did not call for the outright upset, but we thought that Ball State would win by less than a touchdown.   

4. SMU +2 vs. Navy

Lost 

This one looked good for most of the day.  We believed that Navy would not be able to stop the Mustangs’ passing game.  We thought it would be a 35-31 SMU win, and Navy’s defense proved to be up to the challenge.  We missed this one. 

5. St. Louis Rams +7 ½ vs. San Diego Chargers

WON

 

The Chargers lost on the road at Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, three teams that have about the same amount of talent as St. Louis.  The Rams already owned home wins over the Redskins and Seahawks.  We loved that we got more than a touchdown in this one, and it was the first game we isolated when the spread hit seven and a hook. 

6. Cleveland Browns +13 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Lost 

This was our other loss of the week, and like the first one, we came tantalizingly close to winning this one.  Cleveland scored late to cut the Pittsburgh lead to 11 and then kicked off onsides.  It failed.  The Steelers were content to run out the clock, but the Browns called time out twice.  On 3^rd and long, Ben Roethlisberger through the fade into the end zone for a touchdown.  Still we had a chance, as the Browns quickly moved back into Steeler territory, but terrible game management ended the drive. 

7. Seattle Seahawks +6 vs. Chicago Bears

WON 

This was the last of the seven selections we chose last week, and to tell you the truth, had we been playing teasers, we would have left this one alone.  It was purely a system play, as the stats we compile showed it to be a toss-up game.  Seattle had an extra week to prepare, and Jay Cutler was coming off a concussion.   

Almost Like Playoffs

 

This has the makings of a great week in college football with several games serving as imitation playoffs.  At least two undefeated teams are assured of losing their first game as LSU faces Auburn and Oklahoma faces Missouri.  The other unbeatens include Michigan State playing at Northwestern.  The Wildcats had an off-week, so they benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game. 

Oklahoma State hosts Nebraska, and this looks like a close game.  If the Cowboys win this one, they could find themselves in first place in the Big 12 South.  TCU hosts Air Force, and the Horned Frogs should win by more than two touchdowns.  However, the Falcons have enough talent to challenge if TCU comes out flat.  Oregon hosts UCLA Thursday night, and we cannot see the Ducks losing at home to the Bruins.  Boise State has to wait until next Tuesday to play again, so we consider that game the following week. 

The Wild and Wacky SEC East

Look at the SEC East standings this week.  South Carolina and Florida both lost.  The Gamecocks lead the division at 2-2.  After starting league play at 0-3, Georgia is back in the race at 2-3.  Florida is also 2-3.  If the Bulldogs beat the Gators at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and Florida upends South Carolina, Georgia will be back in the driver’s seat. 

We believe there is a good chance that Georgia loses only to Auburn and finishes 4-4.  We can see South Carolina losing to Arkansas and Florida to finish 4-4.  We can see Florida losing to Georgia and beating South Carolina to finish 4-4.  Georgia would win this tiebreaker. 

Now for something even crazier.  What if Kentucky upsets Georgia this week after they upset South Carolina.  The Wildcats also started SEC play at 0-3.  A win over Georgia coupled by wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee would give them four conference wins.  Assuming they could not win at Mississippi State, Kentucky would win a three-way tiebreaker at 4-4 with South Carolina and Florida, or South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida (Georgia would have to beat Auburn in this scenario to get to 4-4). 

One more crazy thought.  With Alabama all of a sudden getting much easier to defend, and with Tennessee having a week to prepare, what if the Vols upset the Tide at Neyland Stadium this week?  It is not all that likely, but this is a tough rivalry game.  That would make Tennessee 1-3 with games left against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.  It wouldn’t be impossible to see Tennessee getting to 4-4 in this scenario. 

Only Vanderbilt appears to be totally out of the SEC East race, and yet, the Commodores are the only other team besides South Carolina with two conference losses.  The craziest thing of all:  If Vanderbilt could pull off a monumental upset over South Carolina (it is the Commodores’ Homecoming), they would move to 2-2 and be in first place in the division.  With a win over the Gamecocks, you would have to call the Tennessee and Kentucky games as winnable.  That would make Vandy 4-4.  They are more likely to finish 1-7, but just saying… 

This Week’s PiRate Top 25

 

NCAA Top 25 October 18, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Oregon	130.5	6	0
2	Boise State	129.8	6	0
3	Oklahoma	128.2	6	0
4	Alabama	127.9	6	1
5	T C U	127.4	7	0
6	Florida State	123.0	6	1
7	Auburn	122.7	7	0
8	Arkansas	122.5	4	2
9	Stanford	122.0	5	1
10	Iowa	121.4	5	1
11	South Carolina	121.0	4	2
12	Ohio State	120.8	6	1
13	Virginia Tech	120.5	5	2
14	Nebraska	120.5	5	1
15	North Carolina	119.1	4	2
16	Wisconsin	118.2	6	1
17	Texas	118.1	4	2
18	Missouri	117.8	6	0
19	Miami (Fla)	117.5	4	2
20	Utah	116.4	6	0
21	Southern Cal	116.1	5	2
22	Mississippi State	115.9	5	2
23	Arizona	115.9	5	1
24	Georgia	115.1	3	4
25	Michigan State	114.9	7	0
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

PiRate Ratings of All 120 FBS Teams (by conference)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	4-0	6-1	123.0
Clemson	1-2	3-3	113.2
North Carolina State	2-1	5-2	105.2
Boston College	0-3	2-4	104.2
Wake Forest	1-3	2-5	98.8
Maryland	1-1	4-2	95.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-0	5-2	120.5
North Carolina	2-1	4-2	119.1
Miami-FL	2-1	4-2	117.5
Georgia Tech	3-1	5-2	113.8
Virginia	0-3	2-4	93.5
Duke	0-3	1-5	91.5

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	1-0	5-1	114.1
Pittsburgh	1-0	3-3	110.8
Cincinnati	1-0	3-3	110.2
Connecticut	0-1	3-3	107.5
South Florida	0-2	3-3	102.5
Louisville	0-1	3-3	98.4
Syracuse	1-1	4-2	98.4
Rutgers	1-0	4-2	93.3

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Iowa	2-0	5-1	121.4
Ohio State	2-1	6-1	120.8
Wisconsin	2-1	6-1	118.2
Michigan State	3-0	7-0	114.9
Michigan	1-2	5-2	107.6
Penn State	0-2	3-3	103.5
Illinois	1-2	3-3	103.3
Purdue	2-0	4-2	96.2
Northwestern	1-1	5-1	96.1
Minnesota	0-3	1-6	93.8
Indiana	0-2	4-2	91.1

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-1	5-1	120.5
Missouri	2-0	6-0	117.8
Colorado	0-2	3-3	102.0
Kansas State	2-1	5-1	97.9
Iowa State	1-2	3-4	91.2
Kansas	0-2	2-4	90.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	2-0	6-0	128.2
Texas	2-1	4-2	118.1
Texas A&M	0-2	3-3	111.2
Oklahoma State	2-0	6-0	109.1
Baylor	2-1	5-2	107.0
Texas Tech	1-3	3-3	104.2

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	2-0	4-2	100.4
Southern Mississippi	2-1	5-2	95.4
East Carolina	3-0	4-2	95.2
U A B	1-2	2-4	87.2
Marshall	0-2	1-5	83.5
Memphis	0-4	1-6	71.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	2-1	3-3	96.9
S M U	3-0	4-3	96.8
Tulsa	2-2	4-3	93.7
U T E P	2-2	5-2	85.6
Rice	1-2	2-5	84.8
Tulane	0-2	2-4	75.5

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-3	110.4
Navy		4-2	100.4
Army		4-3	90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	2-1	5-2	90.2
Miami (O)	3-0	4-3	88.6
Ohio U	3-1	4-3	88.6
Kent St.	1-2	2-4	83.7
Buffalo	1-1	2-4	81.2
Bowling Green	0-3	1-6	78.4
Akron	0-3	0-7	68.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	3-0	5-2	97.6
Toledo	3-0	4-3	86.4
Central Michigan	1-3	2-5	85.7
Western Michigan	1-1	2-4	79.5
Ball State	1-2	2-5	76.0
Eastern Michigan	1-3	1-6	69.4

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	3-0	7-0	127.4
Utah	3-0	6-0	116.4
Air Force	3-1	5-2	105.6
S. D. State	1-1	4-2	100.7
B Y U	1-2	2-5	97.5
Wyoming	0-3	2-5	91.4
Colo. State	1-2	2-5	88.3
UNLV	1-2	1-6	85.4
New Mexico	0-2	0-6	73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	3-0	6-0	130.5
Stanford	2-1	5-1	122.0
Southern Cal	2-2	5-2	116.1
Arizona	2-1	5-1	115.9
Oregon St.	2-1	3-3	113.4
California	1-2	3-3	113.0
Washington	2-1	3-3	109.9
U C L A	1-2	3-3	107.2
Arizona St.	1-2	3-3	107.0
Washington State	0-4	1-6	91.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	2-2	4-2	121.0
Georgia	2-3	3-4	115.1
Florida	2-3	4-3	114.7
Kentucky	1-3	4-3	107.9
Tennessee	0-3	2-4	98.9
Vanderbilt	1-2	2-4	93.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	3-1	6-1	127.9
Auburn	4-0	7-0	122.7
Arkansas	1-2	4-2	122.5
Mississippi State	2-2	5-2	115.9
L S U	4-0	7-0	114.7
Ole Miss	1-2	3-3	104.0

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-0	4-2	91.2
Florida International	2-0	2-4	85.6
Middle Tennessee	1-1	2-4	84.1
Arkansas State	2-2	2-5	81.1
U. of Louisiana	2-2	2-4	80.6
Florida Atlantic	0-2	1-4	78.5
Louisiana-Monroe	2-1	3-3	76.0
North Texas	1-3	1-6	75.8
Western Kentucky	0-2	0-6	73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	2-0	6-0	129.8
Nevada	1-1	6-1	107.2
Hawaii	3-0	5-2	97.7
Fresno State	2-1	4-2	96.9
Louisiana Tech	2-1	3-4	94.5
Utah State	0-2	2-4	94.5
Idaho	0-1	3-3	92.0
San Jose State	0-2	1-6	79.1
New Mexico State	0-2	1-5	72.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, October 21
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
OREGON	U  c  l  a	26.8	37-10
Friday, October 22
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
CINCINNATI	South Florida	10.7	31-20
Saturday, October 23
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
AUBURN	L  s  u	11.5	36-24
ARKANSAS	Ole Miss	21.5	42-20
ARIZONA	Washington	9.5	31-21
STANFORD	Washington State	33.7	44-10
CALIFORNIA	Arizona State	9.0	30-21
COLORADO	Texas Tech	0.8	33-32
Michigan State	NORTHWESTERN	15.8	35-19
Georgia	KENTUCKY	4.2	35-31
Connecticut	LOUISVILLE	6.1	30-24
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	12.3	28-16
Penn State	MINNESOTA	6.7	20-13
Oklahoma	MISSOURI	6.9	31-24
OHIO STATE	Purdue	28.1	38-10
Nebraska	OKLAHOMA STATE	7.9	28-20
PITTSBURGH	Rutgers	20.5	42-21
CLEMSON	Georgia Tech	2.4	30-28
South Carolina	VANDERBILT	24.9	28-3
BAYLOR	Kansas State	12.1	38-26
TEXAS	Iowa State	32.1	42-10
VIRGINIA	Eastern Michigan	27.6	42-14
VIRGINIA TECH	Duke	32.5	49-16
WEST VIRGINIA	Syracuse	18.7	32-13
MISSISSIPPI STATE	U  a  b	31.7	42-10
ILLINOIS	Indiana	15.2	35-20
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida Atlantic	5.6	30-24
Temple	BUFFALO	6.5	24-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Rice	19.1	31-12
IOWA	Wisconsin	6.7	27-20
Texas A&M	KANSAS	18.2	31-13
MIAMI (FL)	North Carolina	1.4	25-24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Louisiana-Monroe	10.6	35-24
Notre Dame	Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ)	10.0	34-24
Alabama	TENNESSEE	25.5	33-7
MIAMI (O)	Ohio U	2.5	30-27
B  Y  U	Wyoming	9.6	31-21
Kent State	BOWLING GREEN	2.8	31-28
Western Michigan	AKRON	8.1	31-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	14.9	35-20
S  M  U	Houston	2.9	34-31
EAST CAROLINA	Marshall	14.7	38-23
IDAHO	New Mexico State	22.9	45-22
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE	Western Kentucky	10.5	31-20
Hawaii	UTAH STATE	0.2	34-34 to ot
UTAH	Colorado State	31.6	42-10
TOLEDO	Ball State	13.4	30-17
Fresno State	SAN JOSE STATE	15.3	27-12
T  C  U	Air Force	25.3	34-9
U  T  E  P	Tulane	13.1	37-24
San Diego State	NEW MEXICO	24.8	35-10

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
Thursday, October 21
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
OREGON	U  c  l  a	40-17	41-17
Friday, October 22
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
CINCINNATI	South Florida	30-18	28-24
Saturday, October 23
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
AUBURN	L  s  u	30-26	33-20
ARKANSAS	Ole Miss	42-30	45-27
ARIZONA	Washington	28-17	24-20
STANFORD	Washington State	45-12	38-10
CALIFORNIA	Arizona State	27-23	27-23
Texas Tech	COLORADO	31-31 to ot	34-27
Michigan State	NORTHWESTERN	31-20	37-17
Georgia	KENTUCKY	34-34 to ot	40-24
LOUISVILLE	Connecticut	28-27	30-19
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	27-24	26-23
Penn State	MINNESOTA	21-13	24-10
Oklahoma	MISSOURI	29-28	30-17
OHIO STATE	Purdue	37-17	34-17
Nebraska	OKLAHOMA STATE	24-24 to ot	23-17
PITTSBURGH	Rutgers	28-17	27-17
CLEMSON	Georgia Tech	35-31	35-30
South Carolina	VANDERBILT	28-14	27-7
BAYLOR	Kansas State	30-28	34-26
TEXAS	Iowa State	26-10	31-3
VIRGINIA	Eastern Michigan	31-12	38-10
VIRGINIA TECH	Duke	41-12	41-10
WEST VIRGINIA	Syracuse	28-13	26-12
MISSISSIPPI STATE	U  a  b	34-10	35-17
ILLINOIS	Indiana	33-20	27-17
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida Atlantic	34-26	31-20
Temple	BUFFALO	24-16	26-14
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Rice	34-14	35-16
IOWA	Wisconsin	25-17	27-17
Texas A&M	KANSAS	33-20	44-13
MIAMI (FL)	North Carolina	24-21	24-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Louisiana-Monroe	34-30	35-20
Notre Dame	Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ)	30-28	31-21
Alabama	TENNESSEE	24-6	24-9
MIAMI (O)	Ohio U	27-28	32-19
B  Y  U	Wyoming	27-20	34-17
BOWLING GREEN	Kent State	28-25	28-26
Western Michigan	AKRON	34-21	31-21
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	33-20	33-14
S  M  U	Houston	40-32	41-24
EAST CAROLINA	Marshall	38-21	45-19
IDAHO	New Mexico State	42-17	38-16
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE	Western Kentucky	31-23	31-13
Hawaii	UTAH STATE	38-28	42-31
UTAH	Colorado State	38-9	27-10
TOLEDO	Ball State	35-21	41-10
Fresno State	SAN JOSE STATE	31-20	38-14
T  C  U	Air Force	27-10	27-10
U  T  E  P	Tulane	40-31	41-27
San Diego State	NEW MEXICO	42-16	42-13

 

This Week’s Look At the Bowls

We continue to believe that only TCU and Boise State could emerge as unbeaten teams.  We can see Oregon stubbing their toe in the competitive Pac-10.  We believe Michigan State will lose once in Big Ten play.  We think Oklahoma has three chances to lose a game, and Oklahoma State and Missouri will not run the table.  We believe the Auburn-LSU winner will lose to Alabama.  TCU should dismiss Utah, so that would leave just the Horned Frogs and Broncos undefeated.  If it happens, they should finish 1-2 in the BCS standings.  If you are a fan of college football playoffs, you need to pull for this scenario to happen.  Can you predict the reaction if 11-1 Alabama and 11-1 Oregon lost out on a chance to play for the National Championship?  You can substitute 11-1 Ohio State’s, Iowa’s, Nebraska’s, Auburn’s, LSU’s, and any other 11-1 team from a major conference. 

The at-large hopefuls out there may luck out on the Pac-10 not coming up with enough teams to fulfill their obligations.  If Oregon and Stanford both end up in BCS Bowls, and with Southern Cal ineligible, the league could find itself being unable to provide bowl-eligible teams to at least one bowl and maybe as many as three.  Our ratings indicated that from among Arizona State, California, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington, one team could finish 6-6, while the others all finish 5-7.

 

(Parentheses mean at-large selection) 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or 5	(Ohio U 7-5)	WAC (#3-4)	La. Tech 6-6
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Temple 9-3	WAC #1 or 2	Nevada 10-2
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1 or 2	Troy 9-3	C-USA #5	U T E P 8-5
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Syracuse 6-6	C-USA #4	Southern Miss 8-4
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Utah 11-1	Pac 10 #5	(Cincinnati 7-5)
Poinsettia	MWC #2	San Diego St. 8-4	Navy or WAC	Navy 7-5
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3	Hawaii 10-3	C-USA #2	East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	Northwestern 6-6	MAC #1	Northern Ill. 10-3
Independence	ACC #7	Miami 7-5	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	Notre Dame 7-5	ACC #3	North Carolina 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Wisconsin 9-3
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Maryland 6-6	C-USA #6	S M U 7-6
Texas	Big 12 #6	Baylor 7-5	Big 10 #6	Illinois 8-4
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Nebraska 11-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	Tulsa 8-4	MWC #4 or 5	B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Rutgers 6-6	Big 12 #7	Texas Tech 6-6
Music City	SEC # 7	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #6	Georgia Tech 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Oklahoma St. 10-2	Pac 10 #3	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5	Clemson 7-5	Big East #3	Pittsburgh 7-5
Sun	ACC #4	N. Carolina St. 8-4	Pac 10 #4	(Boston Coll. 7-5)
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 7-5	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Florida 7-5	ACC #2	Florida State 10-3
Dallas Football Classic	Big 10 #7	Penn State 6-6	Big 12 #8	Kansas St. 6-6
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Georgia 7-6	Big 10 #3	Ohio State 10-2
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St. 11-1	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 9-3	SEC #6	South Carolina 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	Oregon 11-1	BCS Big 10	Iowa 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 12-1	BCS At-Large	West Virginia 10-2
Orange	BCS ACC	Virginia Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	Stanford 11-1
Sugar	BCS SEC	Auburn 12-1	BCS At-Large	Alabama 10-2
G M A C	Sunbelt #1 or 2	Florida Int’l 6-6	MAC #2	Miami (O) 9-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Texas 10-2	SEC #3 or 4	Arkansas 10-2
Papajohns.com	Big East #5	South Florida 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	(Army 7-5)
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	(Toledo 8-4)	WAC	Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Boise State 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	TCU 12-0