The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 15, 2016

2016 Conference USA Football Ratings Preview

Conference USA has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years because the league has lost several teams with historic football success. At one time, Houston, Tulsa, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis were members of the league.

In current times, CUSA has been able to barely avoid the basement as the weakest conference, maintaining a small edge over the Sun Belt.

The league race should be competitive this year, as three teams appear to be talented enough to contend for the East Division title. The West looks less competitive, but after prohibitive favorite Southern Mississippi, there are two or three teams capable of making a surprise run to the division title.

In the last two years, Marshall and Western Kentucky have been contenders for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowls, but no CUSA team figures to be in contention this year.

Here is a look at the Pre-season media poll. No vote counts were issued or for that matter, the media did not vote on overall conference champion.

CUSA-East
# Team
1 Middle Tennessee
2 Western Kentucky
3 Marshall
4 Florida Atlantic
5 Florida Int’l.
6 Old Dominion
7 Charlotte
   
CUSA-West
# Team
1 Southern Miss.
2 Louisiana Tech
3 Rice
4 UTEP
5 UTSA
6 North Texas

This is how the PiRate Ratings see the divisional races

Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.1 93.1 99.8 97.3
Marshall 92.3 96.7 94.1 94.4
Middle Tennessee 92.0 94.6 93.1 93.3
Old Dominion 85.7 89.1 86.3 87.0
Florida Atlantic 84.8 88.5 86.7 86.7
Florida Int’l. 82.3 89.5 84.2 85.3
Charlotte 72.9 81.0 74.5 76.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Miss. 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.3

 

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings alone.

Conference USA Projected Standings
East Division  Conference  Overall  Bowl
Marshall 7-1 10-3 * Hawaii
Western Kentucky 7-1 9-3 New Orleans
Middle Tennessee 6-2 7-5 Heart of Dallas
Florida Int’l. 4-4 6-6 Bowl Eligible
Old Dominion 4-4 6-6 Bowl Eligible
Florida Atlantic 3-5 5-7  
Charlotte 0-8 1-11  
       
West Division   Conference   Overall   Bowl
Southern Miss. 8-0 10-3 Boca Raton
Rice 5-3 6-6 New Mexico
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 Arizona
UTSA 3-5 4-8  
UTEP 1-7 3-9  
North Texas 0-8 1-11  
       
* Marshall to win CUSA Championship Game

Next Preview: Wednesday, August 17–Mid-American Conference Preview

 

 

 

 

 

2016 Sun Belt Conference Football Ratings Preview

The PiRate Ratings kick off its 2016 college football coverage today with the first of 11 previews. We will preview conferences in order of lowest overall average rating to highest, so as we have every year since this league’s inception, we begin with the Sun Belt Conference today.

Last year, Arkansas State ventured to Appalachian State to decide the conference championship in early November. Both teams were undefeated in conference play at the time, and Appy State was a 10-point home favorite. The Mountaineers led 21-14 just before the half, but the Red Wolves scored 26 straight points and won 40-27 and ran the table to finish 8-0 in the league.

This year, the same two teams, plus third place Georgia Southern will contend for the 2016 SBC crown. The PiRates believe four additional teams will compete for bowl eligibility, with three becoming successful, and four teams will try to stay out of the basement and go winless in the league, and possibly winless overall.

With the more favorable FBS vs. FCS schedules this year, it is our opinion that considerably more than the needed teams will be bowl eligible, so this league is likely to see at least one team end the season bowl eligible and not receive a bowl invitation.

Here is how the Sun Belt Media predicted the order of finish in the pre-season media roundup.

2016 Sun Belt Conference Media Poll
# Team 1st Pl. Total
1 Appalachian St. 5 114
2 Arkansas St. 5 110
3 Georgia Southern 1 98
4 Georgia St. 0 73
5t UL-Lafayette 0 70
5t Troy 0 70
7 South Alabama 0 62
8 Idaho 0 48
9 New Mexico St. 0 37
10 Texas St. 0 30
11 UL-Monroe 0 14

The Beginning PiRate Numbers differ very little from the official poll.

Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 95.5 95.7 97.1 96.1
Arkansas St. 91.9 94.2 94.4 93.5
Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
Troy 83.6 90.2 85.2 86.4
Georgia St. 81.7 87.1 83.9 84.2
Idaho 78.1 85.2 79.7 81.0
UL-Lafayette 76.3 86.8 78.7 80.6
South Alabama 75.3 85.2 76.2 78.9
New Mexico St. 73.7 76.5 74.9 75.0
UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
Texas St. 68.8 69.5 69.5 69.3
         
Sun Belt Averages 80.5 85.1 82.1 82.6

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings above.

Sun Belt Conference Projected Standings
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Arkansas St. 8-0 9-3 New Orleans
Appalachian St. 7-1 9-3 GoDaddy
Georgia Southern 7-1 8-4 Cammelia
Troy 5-3 7-5 Cure
UL-Lafayette 5-3 6-6 [Independence] *
Idaho 5-3 6-6 Bowl Eligible
Georgia St. 3-5 5-7
South Alabama 2-6 3-9
UL-Monroe 1-7 2-10
New Mexico St. 1-7 1-11
Texas St. 0-8 1-11

*  This is an at-large bowl bid

Next Preview: Tuesday, August 16–Conference USA

October 25, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 26-30, 2010

PiRate Picks Continue The Winning Streak

 Eight for eight!  Yes, we have now had a winning weekend for all eight weeks of the season.  Our most recent showing produced a 6-3 record against the spread.

 Unlike previous weeks where the NFL games did it for us, it was our college sweetheart teaser plays that made it another profitable weekend.  We know from e-mails that many of you like only the college games.  You have told us that you are only breaking even playing our college games.  Well, you got a 4-0 weekend by playing our four college picks.

Our record for the year is now 43-19-2 for 69.4%.  We don’t officially break our picks down by college and pro picks, because there could be weeks where we combine college and pro games in a teaser or moneyline parlay.  While some of you follow us strictly for our college selections, we issue our weekly selections to be played in total.  We also advise against playing an even amount of games, because finishing with a .500 mark against the spread is a losing proposition.

Here are how our picks finished.

1. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Navy +16 ½ vs. Notre Dame; Maryland +15 vs. Boston College; Minnesota +18 vs. Penn State

WON

2. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Northwestern +14 ½ vs. Michigan State; Syracuse +23 vs. West Virginia; Iowa State +31 vs. Texas

WON

3. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Arkansas Pk vs. Ole Miss; Hawaii +7 vs. Utah State; California +7 vs. Arizona State

WON

. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Alabama -7 vs. Tennessee; South Carolina -1 ½ vs. Vanderbilt; Georgia +5 vs. Kentucky

WON

5. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins

Lost

6. Atlanta Falcons -3 ½ vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

7. Chicago Bears -3 vs. Washington Redskins

Lost

8. San Diego Chargers -2 ½ vs. New England

Lost

9. Oakland +7 ½ vs. Denver

WON

A Look At The BCS Conferences

A C C

Atlantic Division

Florida State plays at North Carolina State Thursday night, and the winner will be in control in the division.  We think that the Wolfpack could pull off the minor upset, but NCSU has three tough road games to play.  They will not go 3-0 playing at Clemson, North Carolina, and Maryland.  So, we are sticking with our guns here and going with the Seminoles to win the division at 7-1 in the league.

Maryland has just one loss in conference play, and they finish the season by hosting Florida State and North Carolina State.  The Terrapins must still play at Miami, so it will be close to impossible to win the division outright.  There is a chance they could figure in a tie at 6-2, but we believe they will fall to 5-3 or 4-4.

Clemson is out of the picture in the division race, but we believe the Tigers will get to eight wins and garner a decent bowl.

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech looks pretty after beginning 0-2.  The Hokies have run roughshod over six consecutive opponents.  They get two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech, and then the only tough game left to play is the November 20 contest at Miami.  We give VT a great chance of running the table.

Miami should finish second in the division, while North Carolina and Georgia Tech go 4-4.  Virginia is lurking in the shadows.  The Cavaliers were not supposed to contend this season, yet they are 3-4 overall.  UVA has games with Duke, Maryland, and Boston College, so there is an outside chance they could finish 6-6.  We think they will come up a bit short.

1. BCS Bowl (Orange): Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State

3. Champs Sports Bowl: Miami

4. Sun Bowl: Clemson

5. Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina State

6. Music City Bowl: North Carolina

7. Independence Bowl: Maryland

8. Eagle Bank Bowl: Georgia Tech

 Big East

This conference’s automatic BCS Bowl invitation should be revoked this year and given to the Mountain West Conference.  Nobody in this league even deserves the Champs Sports Bowl Bid!

The race is still up for grabs between everybody but Connecticut.  We do not see any team going 6-1.  5-2 should be enough to win the league.  Pittsburgh and Syracuse seem to have the best chances of getting to 5-2, but we think Cincinnati has a good chance of catching fire and winning four of five to get to 5-2 as well.  The Bearcats have home games with Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt, and road games against West Virginia and Connecticut.

 West Virginia has the talent to win the league, but they play too inconsistently.  We think the Mountaineers could be headed to a 4-3 league mark.  South Florida should join them at that level, and we believe Louisville could surprise a couple of teams and get there as well.  It all adds up to horrendous mediocrity.  If Pitt, Syracuse, and Cincinnati end at 5-2, then the Bearcats will sneak into a BCS Bowl at 7-5 overall.

 1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Cincinnati

2. Champs Sports Bowl: Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia

4. Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame

5. PapaJohns Bowl: South Florida

6. St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh

At-Large: Las Vegas Bowl: Louisville fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Big Ten

You will notice that our ratings fail to rank 8-0 Michigan State in the PiRate Top 25.  The Spartans have sort of fallen through the cracks in the way our computer system rates teams.  A win at Iowa is almost assured to move MSU up several spots, but we are unenthusiastic about calling for that win.  Thus, we do not believe a Big Ten team will play for the national championship. 

We feel the Spartans will finish 7-1 in league play, finishing in a three-way tie with Iowa and Wisconsin.  The tiebreaking procedure would give Michigan State the Rose Bowl bid.  We believe that an 11-1 Wisconsin team would receive one of the at-large BCS Bowl Bids over a 12-0 TCU/Utah team (assuming Boise State finishes 12-0 as well).

Ohio State must still visit Iowa, so we believe the Buckeyes could lose another game.  Should Ohio State beat Iowa and finish 7-1 along with Wisconsin and Michigan State, then the one with the highest BCS rating will get the bid.  It is too early to predict that.

1. BCS Bowl (Rose): Michigan State

1a. At-Large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Wisconsin

2. Capitol One Bowl: Ohio State

3. Outback Bowl: Iowa

4. Gator Bowl: Michigan

5. Insight Bowl: Illinois

6. Texas Bowl: Northwestern

7. Dallas Football Classic: Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: No available team

Big 12

Missouri must face Nebraska in Lincoln this week.  Coming off the major upset over the number one BCS team tends to make one believe that the Tigers will bounce and fall to the Cornhuskers.  There is one thing in their favor; the officiating should be as biased against Nebraska as it was in the game with Texas.  Any close call will go in Mizzou’s favor.

 We still believe that Bo’s boys will prevail and eliminate the last undefeated Big 12 team.  That would give Nebraska the division title in a tie.

 As for the South, Oklahoma should still win and finish 7-1, but don’t count out Oklahoma State just yet.  The Cowboys have a shot.

 A hearty congratulation goes out to Art Briles at Baylor.  The Bears are now bowl eligible at 6-2, and they actually remain in contention for the South Division flag.  They would have to win at Texas, at Oklahoma State, and beat Texas A&M at home before they would get Oklahoma at home to conclude the regular season.

 There are going to be several teams contending for their important sixth win and bowl eligibility.  We tend to believe Colorado has played themselves out of the mix, and thus Dan Hawkins’ days in Boulder are numbered.  Iowa State should handle Kansas, but then the Cyclones face Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri to close out the regular season.  They need two wins, and they could beat Colorado, but this figures to be Hawkins’ last home game.

1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

2. Cotton Bowl: Missouri

3. Alamo Bowl: Nebraska

4. Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State

5. Holiday Bowl: Texas

6. Texas Bowl: Baylor

7. Pinstripe Bowl: Texas A&M

8. Dallas Football Classic: Texas Tech

At-large Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Kansas State fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Pac-10

If Oregon knocks off Southern Cal this weekend, then we believe the Ducks will run the table and secure a spot in the National Championship Game.  If USC wins, then the Ducks will quack in the Rose Bowl instead.  We are going to say Oregon goes 12-0 (we may possibly play against them in the official picks against the spread, so don’t take this as a statement that we are picking Oregon this week).

There is a lot of mediocrity in the second half of the standings, and the Trojans are not bowl-eligible this year due to probation.  Throw in the possibility that Stanford could earn an at-large BCS bowl bid, and there is not much chance the league will be able to fill its bowl allotments.  We believe they could fall two spots short.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Oregon

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Stanford

2. Alamo Bowl: Arizona

3. Holiday Bowl: California

4. Sun Bowl: Oregon State

5. Las Vegas Bowl: No Team Available

6. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: No Team Available

S E C

Auburn rests at the top of the BCS standings after beating LSU, but we don’t believe the Tigers will be there on November 28.  We think they will lose to Alabama in the season finale but qualify as an at-large BCS Bowl member.

Alabama could sneak back into the number two spot by winning out, omitting a 12-0 Boise State team that has a virtual road win over another BCS Bowl team.  The Broncos could still win the AP National Championship by winning big in their bowl.

LSU and Arkansas should both finish with better records than any East Division team.  Mississippi State could as well, meaning the top five teams come from the West Division.

The East race is up for grabs.  Georgia began the season 0-3 in league play, but we feel like the Bulldogs will finish 4-4 and grab a piece of the flag.  Florida and South Carolina look to be heading to a 4-4 finish, assuming the Gators beat the Gamecocks, and the Gamecocks lose to Arkansas.  If Kentucky can upset Mississippi State in Starkville, then the Wildcats will have an excellent chance at going 4-4 in league play as well.  Vanderbilt should be an easy win, and Tennessee would be very winnable for the Wildcats.  UK has lost 25 in a row to the Vols, and this looks like the year it should end.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Alabama

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Rose): Auburn

2. Capitol One Bowl: Arkansas

3. Cotton Bowl: L S U

4. Outback Bowl: Florida

5. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia

6. Gator Bowl: Mississippi State

7. Music City Bowl: Kentucky

8. Liberty Bowl: South Carolina

9. PapaJohns Bowl: No Team Available

The PiRate Ratings Top 25 For October 25, 2010

 

Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 132.8 7 0
2 Boise State 129.8 6 0
3 Alabama 128.6 7 1
4 T C U 128.4 7 0
5 Oklahoma 125.4 6 1
6 Auburn 123.5 8 0
7 Ohio State 123.5 7 1
8 Florida State 123.0 6 1
9 Arkansas 121.7 5 2
10 Virginia Tech 121.6 6 2
11 Stanford 121.4 6 1
12 Iowa 121.1 5 2
13 Missouri 120.9 7 0
14 South Carolina 120.8 5 2
15 Nebraska 120.8 6 1
16 Utah 120.2 7 0
17 Miami (Fla) 119.8 5 2
18 Wisconsin 119.3 7 1
19 Arizona 118.9 6 1
20 North Carolina 116.7 4 3
21 Southern Cal 116.1 5 2
22 California 115.7 4 3
23 Georgia 115.6 4 4
24 Clemson 115.0 4 3
25 Mississippi State 114.9 6 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

  

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-0 6-1 123.0
Clemson 2-2 4-3 115.0
North Carolina State 2-1 5-2 105.2
Boston College 0-4 2-5 102.1
Wake Forest 1-3 2-5 98.8
Maryland 2-1 5-2 96.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 4-0 6-2 121.6
Miami-FL 3-1 5-2 119.8
North Carolina 2-2 4-3 116.7
Georgia Tech 3-2 5-3 111.9
Virginia 0-3 3-4 93.2
Duke 0-4 1-6 90.3

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 1-1 5-2 111.7
Pittsburgh 2-0 4-3 111.0
Cincinnati 1-1 3-4 108.2
South Florida 1-2 4-3 104.5
Connecticut 0-2 3-4 104.0
Louisville 1-1 4-3 102.2
Syracuse 2-1 5-2 100.8
Rutgers 1-1 4-3 93.1

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 3-1 7-1 123.5
Iowa 2-1 5-2 121.1
Wisconsin 3-1 7-1 119.3
Michigan State 4-0 8-0 114.7
Michigan 1-2 5-2 107.6
Illinois 2-2 4-3 104.5
Penn State 1-2 4-3 104.2
Northwestern 1-2 5-2 96.3
Purdue 2-1 4-3 93.4
Minnesota 0-4 1-7 93.1
Indiana 0-3 4-3 89.8

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Missouri 3-0 7-0 120.9
Nebraska 2-1 6-1 120.8
Colorado 0-3 3-4 101.7
Kansas State 2-2 5-2 98.3
Iowa State 2-2 4-4 93.4
Kansas 0-3 2-5 87.4
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 2-1 6-1 125.4
Texas 2-2 4-3 114.8
Texas A&M 1-2 4-3 112.8
Oklahoma State 2-1 6-1 108.8
Baylor 3-1 6-2 107.0
Texas Tech 2-3 4-3 104.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 3-0 5-2 101.5
East Carolina 4-0 5-2 96.8
Southern Mississippi 2-1 5-2 95.4
U A B 1-2 2-5 89.2
Marshall 0-3 1-6 81.6
Memphis 0-4 1-6 71.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 3-1 4-3 99.4
S M U 3-1 4-4 93.8
Tulsa 2-2 4-3 93.7
Rice 1-3 2-6 83.6
U T E P 2-3 5-3 82.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 78.0

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-4 105.8
Navy   5-2 104.9
Army   4-3 90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 3-1 6-2 93.7
Ohio U 4-1 5-3 91.4
Miami (O) 3-1 4-4 85.8
Kent St. 2-2 3-4 85.3
Buffalo 1-2 2-5 77.6
Bowling Green 0-4 1-7 76.3
Akron 0-4 0-8 64.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 4-0 6-2 98.9
Toledo 4-0 5-3 86.2
Central Michigan 1-4 2-6 84.4
Western Michigan 2-1 3-4 83.0
Ball State 1-3 2-6 76.2
Eastern Michigan 1-3 1-7 69.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 4-0 8-0 128.4
Utah 4-0 7-0 120.2
Air Force 3-2 5-3 105.1
S. D. State 2-1 5-2 99.6
B Y U 2-2 3-5 97.3
Wyoming 0-4 2-6 91.6
Colo. State 1-3 2-6 85.5
UNLV 1-2 1-6 85.4
New Mexico 0-3 0-7 74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 4-0 7-0 132.8
Stanford 3-1 6-1 121.4
Arizona 3-1 6-1 118.9
Southern Cal 2-2 5-2 116.1
California 2-2 4-3 115.7
Oregon St. 2-1 3-3 113.4
Washington 2-2 3-4 106.8
U C L A 1-3 3-4 104.8
Arizona St. 1-3 3-4 104.3
Washington State 0-5 1-7 92.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 3-2 5-2 120.8
Georgia 3-3 4-4 115.6
Florida 2-3 4-3 114.7
Kentucky 1-4 4-4 107.9
Tennessee 0-4 2-5 98.1
Vanderbilt 1-3 2-5 93.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.6
Auburn 5-0 8-0 123.5
Arkansas 2-2 5-2 121.7
Mississippi State 2-2 6-2 114.9
L S U 4-1 7-1 113.9
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 105.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-0 4-2 91.2
Middle Tennessee 2-1 3-4 85.9
Florida International 2-0 2-4 85.6
Arkansas State 3-2 3-5 82.1
Florida Atlantic 0-3 1-5 77.4
Western Kentucky 1-2 1-6 76.6
North Texas 1-3 1-6 75.8
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-5 75.6
Louisiana-Monroe 2-2 3-4 74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 2-0 6-0 129.8
Nevada 1-1 6-1 107.2
Hawaii 4-0 6-2 103.2
Fresno State 3-1 5-2 96.7
Louisiana Tech 2-1 3-4 94.5
Idaho 1-1 4-3 92.3
Utah State 0-3 2-5 91.0
San Jose State 0-3 1-7 79.3
New Mexico State 0-3 1-6 71.8

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, October 26      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BOISE STATE Louisiana Tech 39.3 49-10
       
Thursday, October 28      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Florida State NORTH CAROLINA ST. 14.8 35-20
       
Friday, October 29      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
West Virginia CONNECTICUT 4.7 28-23
       
Saturday, October 30      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARKANSAS Vanderbilt 31.4 41-10
ARIZONA STATE Washington State 15.0 35-20
Arizona U C L A 11.1 28-17
IOWA STATE Kansas 9.0 23-14
Northwestern INDIANA 3.5 31-27
WESTERN KENTUCKY North Texas 3.3 34-31
Clemson BOSTON COLLEGE 9.9 27-17
MARYLAND Wake Forest 1.1 26-25
Auburn OLE MISS 15.4 42-27
NEBRASKA Missouri 3.4 27-24
OKLAHOMA Colorado 27.2 41-14
OREGON STATE California 0.7 28-27
PITTSBURGH Louisville 11.8 26-14
TEXAS A&M Texas Tech 11.3 38-27
TEXAS Baylor 10.8 31-20
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 23.6 34-10
Stanford WASHINGTON 11.6 35-23
MISSISSIPPI STATE Kentucky 10.0 34-24
ILLINOIS Purdue 14.1 31-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA East Carolina 7.7 35-27
CINCINNATI Syracuse 10.4 23-13
Florida Int’l FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5.7 27-21
IOWA Michigan State 9.9 31-21
Oklahoma State KANSAS STATE 7.5 38-30
Troy LOUISIANA-MONROE 14.5 35-20
NEVADA Utah State 19.2 40-21
SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee 25.7 38-12
SOUTHERN MISS U  a  b 9.2 35-26
Northern Illinois WESTERN MICHIGAN 12.9 34-21
TEMPLE Akron 31.3 41-10
OHIO U Louisiana-Lafayette 18.8 31-12
KENT STATE Ball State 11.6 32-20
San Diego State WYOMING 5.0 31-26
NOTRE DAME Tulsa 15.6 40-24
MARSHALL U t e p 2.2 30-28
Georgia (Jacksonville) Florida 0.9 17-16
Miami (O) BUFFALO 5.7 23-17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Bowling Green 11.1 34-23
NAVY Duke 17.6 38-20
S m u TULANE 13.3 37-24
San Jose State NEW MEXICO STATE 5.0 31-26
Toledo EASTERN MICHIGAN 14.0 35-21
COLORADO STATE New Mexico 14.0 24-10
Houston MEMPHIS 25.3 35-10
Utah AIR FORCE 11.6 32-20
Oregon SOUTHERN CAL 12.7 41-28
Ohio State MINNESOTA 27.4 34-7
PENN STATE Michigan 0.1 24-24 to ot
T c u U N L V 40.0 47-7
HAWAII Idaho 14.9 42-27

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Ratings Spreads

 

Tuesday, October 26      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BOISE STATE Louisiana Tech 45-14 45-17
       
Thursday, October 28      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Florida State NORTH CAROLINA ST. 31-26 27-31
       
Friday, October 29      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
West Virginia CONNECTICUT 27-21 27-16
       
Saturday, October 30      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARKANSAS Vanderbilt 31-10 38-10
ARIZONA STATE Washington State 34-17 31-20
Arizona U C L A 27-17 34-17
IOWA STATE Kansas 31-12 35-13
Northwestern INDIANA 35-32 37-30
WESTERN KENTUCKY North Texas 38-31 41-24
Clemson BOSTON COLLEGE 33-24 32-14
MARYLAND Wake Forest 28-19 28-20
Auburn OLE MISS 38-26 42-24
NEBRASKA Missouri 28-26 27-24
OKLAHOMA Colorado 38-17 45-14
OREGON STATE California 28-27 31-21
PITTSBURGH Louisville 24-14 23-17
TEXAS A&M Texas Tech 34-28 35-31
TEXAS Baylor 28-24 27-24
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 31-14 30-17
Stanford WASHINGTON 38-28 40-24
MISSISSIPPI STATE Kentucky 33-24 27-25
ILLINOIS Purdue 36-21 34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA East Carolina 32-27 31-27
CINCINNATI Syracuse 23-16 21-17
Florida Int’l FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 30-20
IOWA Michigan State 31-26 27-26
Oklahoma State KANSAS STATE 34-31 38-30
Troy LOUISIANA-MONROE 31-20 37-13
NEVADA Utah State 49-23 48-27
SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee 31-12 31-13
SOUTHERN MISS U  a  b 40-28 41-31
Northern Illinois WESTERN MICHIGAN 30-21 35-16
TEMPLE Akron 37-7 41-7
OHIO U Louisiana-Lafayette 33-14 35-19
KENT STATE Ball State 30-21 31-21
San Diego State WYOMING 29-24 28-19
NOTRE DAME Tulsa 38-30 38-34
MARSHALL U t e p 26-25 27-23
Florida Georgia (Jacksonville) 20-19 14-23
Miami (O) BUFFALO 28-26 30-20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Bowling Green 34-24 33-21
NAVY Duke 38-19 37-20
S m u TULANE 31-24 27-21
San Jose State NEW MEXICO STATE 27-22 20-24
Toledo EASTERN MICHIGAN 37-21 38-17
COLORADO STATE New Mexico 34-17 34-17
Houston MEMPHIS 31-14 31-16
Utah AIR FORCE 28-20 31-10
Oregon SOUTHERN CAL 35-27 38-28
Ohio State MINNESOTA 34-10 44-10
Michigan PENN STATE 28-28 to ot 30-26
T c u U N L V 42-7 48-0
HAWAII Idaho 41-27 44-27

 

PiRate Bowl Look

 

Bowl Conference Conference Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or 5 WAC (#3?) San Diego St. 8-4 vs. La. Tech 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 WAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4 vs. Nevada 9-3
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 or 2 C-USA #5 Troy 9-3 vs. Tulsa 7-5
St. Petersburg Big East #6 C-USA #4 Pittsburgh 7-5 vs. S M U 7-6
Las Vegas MWC #1 Pac 10 #5 Utah 12-0 vs. (Louisville 7-5)
Poinsettia MWC #2 Navy or WAC T C U 11-1 vs. Navy 8-4
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3 C-USA #2 Hawaii 10-3 vs. East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 MAC #1 (Army 7-5) vs. Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence ACC #7 MWC #3 Maryland 7-5 vs. Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 ACC #3 Syracuse 9-3 vs. Miami (F) 9-3
Insight Big 12 #4 Big 10 #4 or 5 Oklahoma St. 10-2 vs. Illinois 7-5
Eagle Bank ACC #8 C-USA #6 Georgia Tech 6-6 vs. Houston 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6 Big 10 #6 Baylor 7-5 vs. Northwestern 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Pac 10 #2 Nebraska 11-2 vs. Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3 MWC #4 or 5 Southern Miss. 8-4 vs. B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #4 Big 12 #7 Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Texas A&M 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 ACC #6 Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Pac 10 #3 Texas 7-5 vs. California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #5 Big East #3 N. Carolina St. 8-4 vs. West Va. 8-4
Sun ACC #4 Pac 10 #4 Clemson 8-4 vs. Oregon St. 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 C-USA #1 South Carolina 7-5 vs. Central Florida 10-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 ACC #2 Georgia 7-6 vs. Florida St. 10-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #7 Big 12 #8 Penn State 6-6 vs. Texas Tech 6-6
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Big 10 #3 Florida 7-5 vs. Iowa 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 SEC #2 Ohio State 10-2 vs. Arkansas 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 SEC #6 Michigan 8-4 vs. Miss. State 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 BCS Big 10 Auburn 11-1 vs. Michigan St. 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 BCS At-Large Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Cincinnati 7-5
Orange BCS ACC BCS At-Large Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Boise St. 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC BCS At-Large Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Stanford 11-1
G M A C Sunbelt #1 or 2 MAC #2 Middle Tenn. 7-5 vs. Temple 9-3
Cotton Big 12 #2 SEC #3 or 4 Missouri 11-1 vs. L S U 9-3
Papajohns.com Big East #5 SEC #8 or 9 South Florida 7-5 vs. (Miami (O)) 8-5
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 WAC (Kansas State 7-5) vs. Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0 vs. Alabama 12-1

 

October 18, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 21-23, 2010

Another Winning Week Against The Spread

Seven for seven!  It has been a number of years since we started out with seven consecutive winning weeks.  The parity in the NFL has made sweetheart teasers much easier to play this year, but we decided to play straight up this past week.  We still won, finishing 5-2 for the week and making our record for the season 37-16-2.  Let’s take a look at how it went:

 

1. Miami (O) +13 vs. Central Michigan

WON 

As we told all of those who purchased our picks, we thought the wrong team was a double-digit favorite.  The populace getting action on this game went on recent year data.  Yes, CMU was a league power under Brian Kelly and Butch Jones, going 38-17 in the prior four seasons and winning two bowl games.  The Chippewas lost to Ball State a couple weeks ago! 

 

Miami won two games or less three of the previous four seasons, including a 1-11 mark last year.  They have not had a winning season since Josh Betts was a junior in Oxford.  However, this year, the Redhawks are a prime contender in the MAC East.  We picked this “upset” outright. 

2. Georgia -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

 

Those of you who have followed our picks for awhile know we do not consider any games a “lock of the week”, “four-star pick,” “guaranteed game of the year,” etc.  We treat every selection equally, as one we think should win and nothing else.  However, we did state that this line was a joke and could be a mortgage-burning game. 

We called for Georgia to win by four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs won 43-0.  This game fell under three major categories as a game to consider.  First, Georgia won by 27 at home over a conference foe that was not an arch-rival the week before and then stayed at home to face a weaker rival the following week.  Second, the weaker opponent won over a patsy at home the week before and had to play a much stronger opponent on the road the following week.  Third, every facet of play favored Georgia—GA rush vs. VU rush defense; GA pass vs. VU pass defense; GA rush defense vs. VU rush; GA pass defense vs. VU pass; and special teams. 

 

3. Eastern Michigan +14 ½ vs. Ball State

WON 

It may not have been the politically correct thing to state Thursday to those who purchased our picks, but we said, “this was a play against Coach Stan Parrish.  Poor Stan came into this game with a career coaching record of 6-45-1.  Even against a team with an 18-game losing streak, we could not see Ball State winning by more than two touchdowns.  We knew that Eastern Michigan would enter this game with confidence and play like it was their one chance to win a game this season.  We did not call for the outright upset, but we thought that Ball State would win by less than a touchdown.   

4. SMU +2 vs. Navy

Lost 

This one looked good for most of the day.  We believed that Navy would not be able to stop the Mustangs’ passing game.  We thought it would be a 35-31 SMU win, and Navy’s defense proved to be up to the challenge.  We missed this one. 

5. St. Louis Rams +7 ½ vs. San Diego Chargers

WON

 

The Chargers lost on the road at Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, three teams that have about the same amount of talent as St. Louis.  The Rams already owned home wins over the Redskins and Seahawks.  We loved that we got more than a touchdown in this one, and it was the first game we isolated when the spread hit seven and a hook. 

6. Cleveland Browns +13 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Lost 

This was our other loss of the week, and like the first one, we came tantalizingly close to winning this one.  Cleveland scored late to cut the Pittsburgh lead to 11 and then kicked off onsides.  It failed.  The Steelers were content to run out the clock, but the Browns called time out twice.  On 3rd and long, Ben Roethlisberger through the fade into the end zone for a touchdown.  Still we had a chance, as the Browns quickly moved back into Steeler territory, but terrible game management ended the drive. 

7. Seattle Seahawks +6 vs. Chicago Bears

WON 

This was the last of the seven selections we chose last week, and to tell you the truth, had we been playing teasers, we would have left this one alone.  It was purely a system play, as the stats we compile showed it to be a toss-up game.  Seattle had an extra week to prepare, and Jay Cutler was coming off a concussion.   

Almost Like Playoffs

 

This has the makings of a great week in college football with several games serving as imitation playoffs.  At least two undefeated teams are assured of losing their first game as LSU faces Auburn and Oklahoma faces Missouri.  The other unbeatens include Michigan State playing at Northwestern.  The Wildcats had an off-week, so they benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game. 

Oklahoma State hosts Nebraska, and this looks like a close game.  If the Cowboys win this one, they could find themselves in first place in the Big 12 South.  TCU hosts Air Force, and the Horned Frogs should win by more than two touchdowns.  However, the Falcons have enough talent to challenge if TCU comes out flat.  Oregon hosts UCLA Thursday night, and we cannot see the Ducks losing at home to the Bruins.  Boise State has to wait until next Tuesday to play again, so we consider that game the following week. 

The Wild and Wacky SEC East

Look at the SEC East standings this week.  South Carolina and Florida both lost.  The Gamecocks lead the division at 2-2.  After starting league play at 0-3, Georgia is back in the race at 2-3.  Florida is also 2-3.  If the Bulldogs beat the Gators at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and Florida upends South Carolina, Georgia will be back in the driver’s seat. 

We believe there is a good chance that Georgia loses only to Auburn and finishes 4-4.  We can see South Carolina losing to Arkansas and Florida to finish 4-4.  We can see Florida losing to Georgia and beating South Carolina to finish 4-4.  Georgia would win this tiebreaker. 

Now for something even crazier.  What if Kentucky upsets Georgia this week after they upset South Carolina.  The Wildcats also started SEC play at 0-3.  A win over Georgia coupled by wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee would give them four conference wins.  Assuming they could not win at Mississippi State, Kentucky would win a three-way tiebreaker at 4-4 with South Carolina and Florida, or South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida (Georgia would have to beat Auburn in this scenario to get to 4-4). 

One more crazy thought.  With Alabama all of a sudden getting much easier to defend, and with Tennessee having a week to prepare, what if the Vols upset the Tide at Neyland Stadium this week?  It is not all that likely, but this is a tough rivalry game.  That would make Tennessee 1-3 with games left against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.  It wouldn’t be impossible to see Tennessee getting to 4-4 in this scenario. 

Only Vanderbilt appears to be totally out of the SEC East race, and yet, the Commodores are the only other team besides South Carolina with two conference losses.  The craziest thing of all:  If Vanderbilt could pull off a monumental upset over South Carolina (it is the Commodores’ Homecoming), they would move to 2-2 and be in first place in the division.  With a win over the Gamecocks, you would have to call the Tennessee and Kentucky games as winnable.  That would make Vandy 4-4.  They are more likely to finish 1-7, but just saying… 

This Week’s PiRate Top 25

 

NCAA Top 25 October 18, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 130.5 6 0
2 Boise State 129.8 6 0
3 Oklahoma 128.2 6 0
4 Alabama 127.9 6 1
5 T C U 127.4 7 0
6 Florida State 123.0 6 1
7 Auburn 122.7 7 0
8 Arkansas 122.5 4 2
9 Stanford 122.0 5 1
10 Iowa 121.4 5 1
11 South Carolina 121.0 4 2
12 Ohio State 120.8 6 1
13 Virginia Tech 120.5 5 2
14 Nebraska 120.5 5 1
15 North Carolina 119.1 4 2
16 Wisconsin 118.2 6 1
17 Texas 118.1 4 2
18 Missouri 117.8 6 0
19 Miami (Fla) 117.5 4 2
20 Utah 116.4 6 0
21 Southern Cal 116.1 5 2
22 Mississippi State 115.9 5 2
23 Arizona 115.9 5 1
24 Georgia 115.1 3 4
25 Michigan State 114.9 7 0
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

PiRate Ratings of All 120 FBS Teams (by conference)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-0 6-1 123.0
Clemson 1-2 3-3 113.2
North Carolina State 2-1 5-2 105.2
Boston College 0-3 2-4 104.2
Wake Forest 1-3 2-5 98.8
Maryland 1-1 4-2 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 3-0 5-2 120.5
North Carolina 2-1 4-2 119.1
Miami-FL 2-1 4-2 117.5
Georgia Tech 3-1 5-2 113.8
Virginia 0-3 2-4 93.5
Duke 0-3 1-5 91.5

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 1-0 5-1 114.1
Pittsburgh 1-0 3-3 110.8
Cincinnati 1-0 3-3 110.2
Connecticut 0-1 3-3 107.5
South Florida 0-2 3-3 102.5
Louisville 0-1 3-3 98.4
Syracuse 1-1 4-2 98.4
Rutgers 1-0 4-2 93.3

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Iowa 2-0 5-1 121.4
Ohio State 2-1 6-1 120.8
Wisconsin 2-1 6-1 118.2
Michigan State 3-0 7-0 114.9
Michigan 1-2 5-2 107.6
Penn State 0-2 3-3 103.5
Illinois 1-2 3-3 103.3
Purdue 2-0 4-2 96.2
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 96.1
Minnesota 0-3 1-6 93.8
Indiana 0-2 4-2 91.1

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 1-1 5-1 120.5
Missouri 2-0 6-0 117.8
Colorado 0-2 3-3 102.0
Kansas State 2-1 5-1 97.9
Iowa State 1-2 3-4 91.2
Kansas 0-2 2-4 90.0
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 2-0 6-0 128.2
Texas 2-1 4-2 118.1
Texas A&M 0-2 3-3 111.2
Oklahoma State 2-0 6-0 109.1
Baylor 2-1 5-2 107.0
Texas Tech 1-3 3-3 104.2

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 2-0 4-2 100.4
Southern Mississippi 2-1 5-2 95.4
East Carolina 3-0 4-2 95.2
U A B 1-2 2-4 87.2
Marshall 0-2 1-5 83.5
Memphis 0-4 1-6 71.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-1 3-3 96.9
S M U 3-0 4-3 96.8
Tulsa 2-2 4-3 93.7
U T E P 2-2 5-2 85.6
Rice 1-2 2-5 84.8
Tulane 0-2 2-4 75.5

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-3 110.4
Navy   4-2 100.4
Army   4-3 90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 2-1 5-2 90.2
Miami (O) 3-0 4-3 88.6
Ohio U 3-1 4-3 88.6
Kent St. 1-2 2-4 83.7
Buffalo 1-1 2-4 81.2
Bowling Green 0-3 1-6 78.4
Akron 0-3 0-7 68.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 97.6
Toledo 3-0 4-3 86.4
Central Michigan 1-3 2-5 85.7
Western Michigan 1-1 2-4 79.5
Ball State 1-2 2-5 76.0
Eastern Michigan 1-3 1-6 69.4

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 3-0 7-0 127.4
Utah 3-0 6-0 116.4
Air Force 3-1 5-2 105.6
S. D. State 1-1 4-2 100.7
B Y U 1-2 2-5 97.5
Wyoming 0-3 2-5 91.4
Colo. State 1-2 2-5 88.3
UNLV 1-2 1-6 85.4
New Mexico 0-2 0-6 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 3-0 6-0 130.5
Stanford 2-1 5-1 122.0
Southern Cal 2-2 5-2 116.1
Arizona 2-1 5-1 115.9
Oregon St. 2-1 3-3 113.4
California 1-2 3-3 113.0
Washington 2-1 3-3 109.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 107.2
Arizona St. 1-2 3-3 107.0
Washington State 0-4 1-6 91.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 2-2 4-2 121.0
Georgia 2-3 3-4 115.1
Florida 2-3 4-3 114.7
Kentucky 1-3 4-3 107.9
Tennessee 0-3 2-4 98.9
Vanderbilt 1-2 2-4 93.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 3-1 6-1 127.9
Auburn 4-0 7-0 122.7
Arkansas 1-2 4-2 122.5
Mississippi State 2-2 5-2 115.9
L S U 4-0 7-0 114.7
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 104.0

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-0 4-2 91.2
Florida International 2-0 2-4 85.6
Middle Tennessee 1-1 2-4 84.1
Arkansas State 2-2 2-5 81.1
U. of Louisiana 2-2 2-4 80.6
Florida Atlantic 0-2 1-4 78.5
Louisiana-Monroe 2-1 3-3 76.0
North Texas 1-3 1-6 75.8
Western Kentucky 0-2 0-6 73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 2-0 6-0 129.8
Nevada 1-1 6-1 107.2
Hawaii 3-0 5-2 97.7
Fresno State 2-1 4-2 96.9
Louisiana Tech 2-1 3-4 94.5
Utah State 0-2 2-4 94.5
Idaho 0-1 3-3 92.0
San Jose State 0-2 1-6 79.1
New Mexico State 0-2 1-5 72.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Thursday, October 21      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
OREGON U  c  l  a 26.8 37-10
       
Friday, October 22      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
CINCINNATI South Florida 10.7 31-20
       
Saturday, October 23      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
AUBURN L  s  u 11.5 36-24
ARKANSAS Ole Miss 21.5 42-20
ARIZONA Washington 9.5 31-21
STANFORD Washington State 33.7 44-10
CALIFORNIA Arizona State 9.0 30-21
COLORADO Texas Tech 0.8 33-32
Michigan State NORTHWESTERN 15.8 35-19
Georgia KENTUCKY 4.2 35-31
Connecticut LOUISVILLE 6.1 30-24
BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland 12.3 28-16
Penn State MINNESOTA 6.7 20-13
Oklahoma MISSOURI 6.9 31-24
OHIO STATE Purdue 28.1 38-10
Nebraska OKLAHOMA STATE 7.9 28-20
PITTSBURGH Rutgers 20.5 42-21
CLEMSON Georgia Tech 2.4 30-28
South Carolina VANDERBILT 24.9 28-3
BAYLOR Kansas State 12.1 38-26
TEXAS Iowa State 32.1 42-10
VIRGINIA Eastern Michigan 27.6 42-14
VIRGINIA TECH Duke 32.5 49-16
WEST VIRGINIA Syracuse 18.7 32-13
MISSISSIPPI STATE U  a  b 31.7 42-10
ILLINOIS Indiana 15.2 35-20
ARKANSAS STATE Florida Atlantic 5.6 30-24
Temple BUFFALO 6.5 24-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA Rice 19.1 31-12
IOWA Wisconsin 6.7 27-20
Texas A&M KANSAS 18.2 31-13
MIAMI (FL) North Carolina 1.4 25-24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Louisiana-Monroe 10.6 35-24
Notre Dame Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ) 10.0 34-24
Alabama TENNESSEE 25.5 33-7
MIAMI (O) Ohio U 2.5 30-27
B  Y  U Wyoming 9.6 31-21
Kent State BOWLING GREEN 2.8 31-28
Western Michigan AKRON 8.1 31-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Central Michigan 14.9 35-20
S  M  U Houston 2.9 34-31
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 14.7 38-23
IDAHO New Mexico State 22.9 45-22
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Western Kentucky 10.5 31-20
Hawaii UTAH STATE 0.2 34-34 to ot
UTAH Colorado State 31.6 42-10
TOLEDO Ball State 13.4 30-17
Fresno State SAN JOSE STATE 15.3 27-12
T  C  U Air Force 25.3 34-9
U  T  E  P Tulane 13.1 37-24
San Diego State NEW MEXICO 24.8 35-10

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, October 21      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OREGON U  c  l  a 40-17 41-17
       
Friday, October 22      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
CINCINNATI South Florida 30-18 28-24
       
Saturday, October 23      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN L  s  u 30-26 33-20
ARKANSAS Ole Miss 42-30 45-27
ARIZONA Washington 28-17 24-20
STANFORD Washington State 45-12 38-10
CALIFORNIA Arizona State 27-23 27-23
Texas Tech COLORADO 31-31 to ot 34-27
Michigan State NORTHWESTERN 31-20 37-17
Georgia KENTUCKY 34-34 to ot 40-24
LOUISVILLE Connecticut 28-27 30-19
BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland 27-24 26-23
Penn State MINNESOTA 21-13 24-10
Oklahoma MISSOURI 29-28 30-17
OHIO STATE Purdue 37-17 34-17
Nebraska OKLAHOMA STATE 24-24 to ot 23-17
PITTSBURGH Rutgers 28-17 27-17
CLEMSON Georgia Tech 35-31 35-30
South Carolina VANDERBILT 28-14 27-7
BAYLOR Kansas State 30-28 34-26
TEXAS Iowa State 26-10 31-3
VIRGINIA Eastern Michigan 31-12 38-10
VIRGINIA TECH Duke 41-12 41-10
WEST VIRGINIA Syracuse 28-13 26-12
MISSISSIPPI STATE U  a  b 34-10 35-17
ILLINOIS Indiana 33-20 27-17
ARKANSAS STATE Florida Atlantic 34-26 31-20
Temple BUFFALO 24-16 26-14
CENTRAL FLORIDA Rice 34-14 35-16
IOWA Wisconsin 25-17 27-17
Texas A&M KANSAS 33-20 44-13
MIAMI (FL) North Carolina 24-21 24-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Louisiana-Monroe 34-30 35-20
Notre Dame Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ) 30-28 31-21
Alabama TENNESSEE 24-6 24-9
MIAMI (O) Ohio U 27-28 32-19
B  Y  U Wyoming 27-20 34-17
BOWLING GREEN Kent State 28-25 28-26
Western Michigan AKRON 34-21 31-21
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Central Michigan 33-20 33-14
S  M  U Houston 40-32 41-24
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 38-21 45-19
IDAHO New Mexico State 42-17 38-16
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Western Kentucky 31-23 31-13
Hawaii UTAH STATE 38-28 42-31
UTAH Colorado State 38-9 27-10
TOLEDO Ball State 35-21 41-10
Fresno State SAN JOSE STATE 31-20 38-14
T  C  U Air Force 27-10 27-10
U  T  E  P Tulane 40-31 41-27
San Diego State NEW MEXICO 42-16 42-13

 

This Week’s Look At the Bowls

We continue to believe that only TCU and Boise State could emerge as unbeaten teams.  We can see Oregon stubbing their toe in the competitive Pac-10.  We believe Michigan State will lose once in Big Ten play.  We think Oklahoma has three chances to lose a game, and Oklahoma State and Missouri will not run the table.  We believe the Auburn-LSU winner will lose to Alabama.  TCU should dismiss Utah, so that would leave just the Horned Frogs and Broncos undefeated.  If it happens, they should finish 1-2 in the BCS standings.  If you are a fan of college football playoffs, you need to pull for this scenario to happen.  Can you predict the reaction if 11-1 Alabama and 11-1 Oregon lost out on a chance to play for the National Championship?  You can substitute 11-1 Ohio State’s, Iowa’s, Nebraska’s, Auburn’s, LSU’s, and any other 11-1 team from a major conference. 

The at-large hopefuls out there may luck out on the Pac-10 not coming up with enough teams to fulfill their obligations.  If Oregon and Stanford both end up in BCS Bowls, and with Southern Cal ineligible, the league could find itself being unable to provide bowl-eligible teams to at least one bowl and maybe as many as three.  Our ratings indicated that from among Arizona State, California, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington, one team could finish 6-6, while the others all finish 5-7.

 

(Parentheses mean at-large selection) 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or 5 (Ohio U 7-5) WAC (#3-4) La. Tech 6-6
Humanitarian MAC #3 Temple 9-3 WAC #1 or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 or 2 Troy 9-3 C-USA #5 U T E P 8-5
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Syracuse 6-6 C-USA #4 Southern Miss 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 11-1 Pac 10 #5 (Cincinnati 7-5)
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC Navy 7-5
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2 East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 Northwestern 6-6 MAC #1 Northern Ill. 10-3
Independence ACC #7 Miami 7-5 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 North Carolina 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Wisconsin 9-3
Eagle Bank ACC #8 Maryland 6-6 C-USA #6 S M U 7-6
Texas Big 12 #6 Baylor 7-5 Big 10 #6 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 Nebraska 11-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3 Tulsa 8-4 MWC #4 or 5 B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #4 Rutgers 6-6 Big 12 #7 Texas Tech 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #6 Georgia Tech 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #5 Clemson 7-5 Big East #3 Pittsburgh 7-5
Sun ACC #4 N. Carolina St. 8-4 Pac 10 #4 (Boston Coll. 7-5)
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 7-5 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 Florida 7-5 ACC #2 Florida State 10-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #7 Penn State 6-6 Big 12 #8 Kansas St. 6-6
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Georgia 7-6 Big 10 #3 Ohio State 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 9-3 SEC #6 South Carolina 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 Oregon 11-1 BCS Big 10 Iowa 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 12-1 BCS At-Large West Virginia 10-2
Orange BCS ACC Virginia Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Alabama 10-2
G M A C Sunbelt #1 or 2 Florida Int’l 6-6 MAC #2 Miami (O) 9-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Texas 10-2 SEC #3 or 4 Arkansas 10-2
Papajohns.com Big East #5 South Florida 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 (Army 7-5)
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 (Toledo 8-4) WAC Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Boise State 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** TCU 12-0

 

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