2015 AFC East Division Preview

Today, we begin our 2015 previews of each NFL division with a look at the AFC East Division. This year, we are going to concentrate mostly on stats and analytics.

You will see the following information in each preview.

1. A current starting lineup based on multiple sources.  This will include players that are questionable for Week 1, and players suspended in the first four weeks.
2. Team Information–Head Coach, Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Last Year’s W-L Record and Average Offensive and Defensive Points Per Game
3. 2015 Preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings with an Average of the Three.
4. Our PiRate Grades on Running Game, Passing Game, Defense Against the Run, Defense Against the Pass, Special Teams, and Coaching + Intangibles.  Note that these grades use advanced metrics and do not rely on regular statistics.  More about that in the footnote at the end of this entry.
5. The PiRate Ratings won-loss predictions for 2015 and whether the team is picked to make the playoffs.  These predictions are based on a unique set of data and do not strictly correlate to our preseason ratings.  We actually have pre-adjustments in our ratings based on factors such as depth, age, schedule, travel, etc.

AFC EAST

New England has won this division six consecutive seasons, and the last time they didn’t win, they lost in a tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins.  With Tom Brady sidelined for four games, a lot of pundits are picking the Patriots to begin the season trailing one or more contenders.  We remind them that Matt Cassel took over a Patriot team in 2008 and went 10-5 as a starter.  Jimmy Garoppolo should be able to at least split those four games, which should allow the Pats to seven-peat in the AFC East.

Rex Ryan takes over at Buffalo, and the Bills have enough talent on hand to make a playoff run, something Bills’ fans have not experienced since the fateful “Music City Miracle” in 1999.  With the addition of Matt Cassel, LeSean McCoy and to a lesser extent, Percy Harvin and Richie Incognito, Ryan’s Bills could take on the persona of the Oakland Raiders of the 1960’s and 1970’s.

Miami added Ndamukong Suh and Greg Jennings to a roster that was 7-5 before fading fast last year.  The Dolphins will make the Playoffs this year, or Joe Philbin will be history.

The New York Jets start over with a new coach, a new quarterback they did not expect to have, two new cornerbacks, and a commitment to open up the offense.  However, in order for the Jets to get off the ground in 2015, unexpected new starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick must find a way to avoid the interception bug for at least 4 or 5 games, or else rookie Bryce Petty will be in the Big Apple microscope.

BUFFALO BILLS

Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Sammy Watkins
WR	Percy Harvin
WR	Robert Woods
TE	Charles Clay
LT	Gordy Glenn
LG	Richie Ingonito
C	Eric Wood
RG	John Miller
RT	Seantrel Henderson
QB	Matt Cassel
HB	LeSean McCoy
FB	Jerome Felton
Defense
DE	Mario Williams
DT	Marcell Dareus
DT	Kyle Williams
DE	Jerry Hughes
LB	Nigel Bradham
LB	Preston Brown
LB	Manny Lawson
CB	Leodis McKelvin
S	Aaron Williams
S	Corey Graham
CB	Stephon Gilmore
N5	Nickell Robey
Special
Kicker	Dan Carpenter
Punter	Colton Schmidt
KR	Percy Harvin
PR	Marcus Thigpen

Buffalo Bills
Head Coach	Rex Ryan
Off. Coordinator	Greg Roman
Def. Coordinator	Dennis Thurman
2014 W-L-T	9-7-0
Pts	21.4
Opp	18.1
Ratings
PiRate	99.8
Mean	100.6
Bias	99.6
Average	100.0
Grades
Running	B-
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	B+
Vs. Pass	B-
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	10-6-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	9
Overall Rank	17
Postseason	Yes

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Greg Jennings
WR	Kenny Stills
WR	Jarvis Landry
TE	Jordan Cameron
LT	Albert Brandon
LG	Dallas Thomas
C	Mike Pouncey
RG	Billy Turner
RT	Ja’ Wuan James
QB	Ryan Tannehill
HB	Lamar Miller
FB	(None)
Defense
DE	Cameron Wake
DT	Ndamukong Suh
DT	Earl Mitchell
DE	Olivier Vernon
LB	Chris McCain
LB	Koa Misi
LB	Jelani Jenkins
CB	Brent Grimes
S	Reshad Jones
S	Michael Thomas
CB	Jamar Taylor
N5	Brice McCain
Special
Kicker	Caleb Sturgis
Punter	Brandon Fields
KR	Jarvis Landry
PR	Jarvis Landry

Miami Dolphins
Head Coach	Joe Philbin
Off. Coordinator	Bill Lazor
Def. Coordinator	Kevin Coyle
2014 W-L-T	8-8-0
Pts	24.3
Opp	23.3
Ratings
PiRate	98.7
Mean	100.3
Bias	98.0
Average	99.0
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	C+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	B
Special Teams	C-
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	10
Overall Rank	19
Postseason	No

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Reggie Wayne
WR	Julian Edelman
WR	Danny Amendola
TE	Rob Gronkowski
LT	Nate Solder
LG	Josh Klein
C	Bryan Stork
RG	Ryan Wendell
RT	Sebastian Vollmer
QB	Tom Brady
HB	LeGarrette Blount
FB	James Develin
Defense
DE	Rob Ninkovich
DT	Alan Branch
DT	Sealver Siliga
DE	Chandler Jones
LB	Jamie Collins
LB	Jerod Mayo
LB	Dont’a Hightower
CB	Malcolm Butler
S	Patrick Chung
S	Devon McCourty
CB	Logan Ryan
N5	Robert McClain
Special
Kicker	Stephen Gostkowski
Punter	Ryan Allen
KR	Danny Amendola
PR	Julian Edelman

New England Patriots
Head Coach	Bill Belichick
Off. Coordinator	Josh McDaniels
Def. Coordinator	Matt Patricia
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	29.3
Opp	19.6
Ratings
PiRate	107.9
Mean	107.9
Bias	107.9
Average	107.9
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	A+
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	A+
Predicted W-L	12-4-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	1
Overall Rank	2
Postseason	No

NEW YORK JETS

Starting Lineups
Offense
WR	Brandon Marshall
WR	Eric Decker
WR	Jeremy Kerley
TE	Jeff Cumberland
LT	D’Brickashaw Ferguson
LG	James Carpenter
C	Nick Mangold
RG	Willie Colon
RT	Breno Giacomini
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick
HB	Chris Ivory
FB	Tommy Bohanon
Defense
DE	Muhammad Wilkerson
DT	Damon Harrison
DE	Leonard Williams
LB	Quinton Coples
LB	Demario Davis
LB	David Harris
LB	Calvin Pace
CB	Darrelle Revis
S	Calvin Pryor
S	Marcus Gilchrist
CB	Antonio Cromartie
N5	Buster Skrine
Special
Kicker	Nick Folk
Punter	Ryan Quigley
KR	Chris Owusu
PR	Jeremy Kerley

New York Jets
Head Coach	Todd Bowles
Off. Coordinator	Chan Gailey
Def. Coordinator	Kacy Rodgers
2014 W-L-T	4-12-0
Pts	17.7
Opp	25.1
Ratings
PiRate	97.7
Mean	98.2
Bias	97.5
Average	97.8
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	D
Vs. Run	A-
Vs. Pass	B+
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	D
Predicted W-L	7-9-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	12
Overall Rank	23
Postseason	No

Grade Constituents & Data

Running Game: Offensive Line & Running Backs

Mere average yards per carry or total yards gained matters little here.  We grade based on how effective the running game is.  So, if a player gained 1,200 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year, there is no guarantee that he is better than a player that gains 800 yards and averaged 3.5 yards per attempt.  Gaining three yards on third and two is a lot more important than gaining four yards on third and eight.  A player that gets a lot of attempts inside the two yard line will see his average yards per carry drop but will be more effective due to getting the job done.

Passing Game: Quarterback, Receivers, Backs, Offensive Line

We use a combination of average yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, yards after catch, sacks per attempt, and avoidance of turnovers.  A team with a better quarterback may have a lower grade than a team with less talented quarterback, if he has a better pass blocking offensive line and/or better receivers.

Defense: All 11 defensive players factor into both run and pass defense.  The defensive ends and cornerbacks count more against the pass than any other position, while the front seven counts more against the run than the secondary.

Special Teams: Punt and Kick Coverage count for a little more than punt and kick return, but with a little extra given weight to returners that have a proven history of becoming game-changers.  Actual punting and kicking have gotten to the point where there is not much difference between the best and worst.  If the top punter averages 46 yards per punt, and a replacement punter averages just 40 yards per punt, that six yards is not that much of a factor.  Coverage is much more important.  Not allowing the opponent to get a long return counts more than the six yards difference in the punters.

Coaching + Intangibles: The head coach is not the only coach that matters, but he counts more than the strength and conditioning coach.  We look at the entire coaching staff, with the coordinators receiving more consideration than all but the head coach.  Intangibles include a host of factors, including things like having a player break a teammate’s jaw, penalties from deflating balls, having a team that missed out of the playoffs by a tiebreaker last year, and many other little things.