The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 28, 2011

2011 Conference Tournament Kickoff

Hurray for March.  Spring is near.  Daylight Savings Time is coming, so it will still be light for many when their work day ends.  However, for many sports fanatics across the fruited plain, March means only one thing—March Madness.

This has been an infectious syndrome for years, and the condition is going to go viral this year.  The kind folks at CBS Sports have branched out so that every one of the tournament games will be available to be viewed on television.  If you don’t like the game that has been given to you, you can just turn to another channel and view the game you want to see.

Selection Sunday is a mere 12 days away.  In that time, except for the Ivy League, the other 30 conferences will conduct post-season tournaments (31 if you count the Great West Conference which does not receive an automatic bid.)  The Ivy League could very well be forced to decide its regular season champion by way of a playoff game, because Harvard and Princeton could easily finish tied at 12-2.

It all begins today, as the Big South Conference and Horizon League tournaments commence.  Tomorrow, the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley Conference, and Patriot League tournaments begin, and on Wednesday, the America East, Metro Atlantic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, and Southern Conference Tournaments start.

Check back daily here for updates.  We will have the brackets and results for each tournament, and update our list of locks, near locks, high bubble, low bubble, and out of the Dance teams.

Let’s begin with the two leagues that kick things off.

The Big South Conference Tournament

All Times EST

Tuesday, March 1 – Quarterfinals (at home sites of top four seeds at 7PM)
G 1: #2 Liberty (19-12) vs. #7 High Point (11-18)  

G 2: #3 UNC Asheville (16-13) vs. #6 Charleston Southern (16-15) 
G 3: #1 Coastal Carolina (26-4) vs. #8 Gardner-Webb (11-20)
G 4: #4 VMI (17-12) vs. #5 Winthrop (13-16)


Thursday, March 3 – Semifinals (at Coastal Carolina)
G 5: Winner G 1 vs. Winner G 2 @ 6:00pm (ESPNU)
G 6: Winner G 3 vs. Winner G 4 30 Minutes After G 5 Ends (ESPNU)


Saturday, March 5 – Championship (at highest remaining seed)
Winner G 5 vs. Winner G 6 @ 4:00pm (ESPN2)

Hot Team: UNC Asheville—won last three including at Coastal Carolina

Not Hot: Liberty—lost last four by average of 10.5 points per game

Team Nobody Wants To Play: VMI can score points in bunches and comes in riding a five-game conference winning streak

Coastal Carolina as Favorite:  The Chanticleers will be NIT bound if they are upset in this tournament.  CCU has 0% chance to receive an at-large invitation.  They will breeze through their first round game with Gardner-Webb, but we believe that VMI could give them a scare in a possible semifinal round game.  CCU won both regular season meetings by double digits, but the Keydets could pull off a big upset in the third meeting.  VMI must get past a feisty Winthrop team in the quarterfinals.

Our Pick: Coastal Carolina over UNC-Asheville.

The Horizon League Tournament

All Times EST

Tuesday, March 1

First Round (At Home Sites Of Higher Seed)

G 1: #10 UIC (7-23) at #3 Cleveland State (24-7) 7 p.m.

G 2: #7 Green Bay (14-17) at #6 Wright State (18-13) 7 p.m.

G 3: #9 Youngstown State (9-20) at #4 Valparaiso (21-10) 8 p.m.

G 4: #8 Loyola (Chi) (16-14) at #5 Detroit (16-15) 7 p.m.


Friday, March 4

Second Round (at Milwaukee)

G 5: G 1 winner vs. G 2 winner 6 p.m. ET

G 6: G 3 winner vs. G 4 winner 8:30 p.m. ET


Saturday, March 5

Semifinals (at Milwaukee)

G 7: G 5 winner vs. Butler (21-9)  6 p.m. ESPNU (tape-delayed at 10:30 p.m.)

G 8: G 6 winner vs. Milwaukee (18-12) 8:30 p.m.  ESPNU


Tuesday, March 8

Championship (at Home Site of Higher Seed)

G 7 winner vs. G 8 winner 9 p.m.  ESPN

Hot Team: Butler comes in riding a seven-game winning streak, but the Bulldogs lost twice to Milwaukee.

Not Hot: UIC won only two of their final 16 games.

Team Nobody Wants To Play: Cleveland State should easily dismiss UIC and either Green Bay or Wright State in a second round match.  The Vikings should be on a roll by the time they must face Butler in the semifinals.

Butler’s At-large chances: The Bulldogs played a tough non-conference slate, but they only defeated Florida State.  If Butler lost in the conference finals, the Bulldogs would be well down on the bubble and have about a 15% chance of getting into the Big Dance.

Our Pick:  Milwaukee lost only to Buffalo in the Bracketbuster after January 21.  The Panthers have to be considered a co-favorite with Butler.  It would be hard for Cleveland State to beat Butler and then Milwaukee on the Panthers’ home court, but we believe Vikings have a good shot.  Valparaiso must not be dismissed, but in the end, we will go with Butler’s tournament experience and take the Bulldogs to once again rule the Horizon.

March 2, 2010

And They’re Off…

Let’s Start The Partying


It may feel like it’s mid-January in most of the nation, but the calendar doesn’t lie.  It’s time to start the sports reality show called “Big Dancing With The Stars; Trying Not To Be The Biggest Loser.”  Yes, the conference tournaments begin to tip-off tonight.

15 conferences begin tournament play in the next four days.  Let’s take a look at the brackets.

America East Conference

Site: Hartford, CT until the Championship Game.  Championship Game on the home court of the higher seed.

Late Note:#5 seed Binghamton has withdrawn from the conference tournament, making this an 8-team tournament that will now begin Saturday.

Saturday, March 6

G1-#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. #9 Albany (7-24)

G2-#4 Boston U (17-12) vs. #6 Hartford (8-21)

G3-#2 Vermont (22-9) vs. #8 Maryland-Balt. Co. (4-25)

G4-#3 Maine (19-10) vs. #7 New Hampshire (12-16)

Sunday, March 7

G5-Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner

G6-Game 3 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Saturday, March 13

Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner at higher seed’s home court

Boston U is the hot team as tournament play begins.  The Terriers have an easy first round game thanks to Binghamton pulling out.  Look for a very interesting semifinal match between BU and Stony Brook.

Look for New Hampshire to give Maine a great game and have a great shot at the upset.  Beating Vermont in the next round won’t happen.  The Catamounts have a clear path to the title game, and if Boston can upset Stony Brook, Vermont would host the title game.

Atlantic Sun Conference

Site: Macon, GA

Wednesday, March 3

G1-#1 Lipscomb (17-12) vs. #8 Kennesaw St. (12-19)

G2-#2 Jacksonville (18-11) vs. #7 North Florida (13-17)

Thursday, March 4

G3-#3 Belmont (19-11) vs. #6 Mercer (14-16)

G4-#4 Campbell (19-10) vs. #5 East Tennessee (17-14)

Friday, March 5

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Saturday, March 6

Semifinal Winners

Lipscomb won its last four games to earn a four-way tie for first.  The Bisons got the top-seed based on head to head results against the other three teams.  Their path to the championship game is not an easy one.  In the opening round, they face a Kennesaw team that gave them fits in both games, earning a split.  

Campbell has the most complete game of any team in this tournament, and they could be the team to beat from their number four seeding.  They also split with Lipscomb, and a possible semifinal match with the Bisons could be the game of the tournament.

Belmont and Jacksonville should handle their first round opponents, and in a semifinal match, the Dolphins have the upper hand when matching up.  A Jacksonville-Campbell final game would be interesting.  Both teams defended their home court in the regular season, winning by double digits.

Big Sky Conference

Site: All games played at higher seed

Saturday, March 6

#6 Portland State (12-17) at #3 Montana State (15-13)

#5 Northern Arizona (14-13) at #4 Montana (19-9)

Tuesday, March 9

Lower Remaining Seed at #1 Weber State (19-9)

Higher Remaining Seed at #2 Northern Colorado (24-6)

Wednesday, March 10

Lower Remaining Seed at Higher Remaining Seed


Big South Conference

Site: Quarterfinals at higher seed/Semifinals at Coastal Carolina/Finals at higher seed

Tuesday, March 2

G1-#8 VMI (10-18) at #1 Coastal Carolina (26-5)

G2-#7 Charleston Southern (13-16) at #2 Radford (18-11)

G3-#6 Liberty (15-15) at #3 Winthrop (16-13)

G4-#5 High Point (15-14) at #4 UNC-Asheville (14-15)

Thursday, March 4 (at Coastal Carolina)

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Friday, March 5

Lower Remaining Seed at Higher Remaining Seed

The top two teams are clearly the two best in this league, as they dispenses of all the competition coming down the stretch.  Radford has a dominating inside player capable of causing matchup problems for a good team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Keep an eye on Art Parakhouski, a 6-11 hulk from Belarus.  He makes Radford the favorite to meet Coastal Carolina for a great rubber match worth watching.

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: Richmond, VA

Friday, March 5

G1-#8 Towson (9-20) vs. #9 UNC-Wilmington (9-21)

G2-#5 Va. Commonwealth (20-8) vs. #12 Delaware (7-23)

G3-#7 Hofstra (18-13) vs. #10 Georgia State (12-19)

G4-#6 Drexel (16-15) vs. #11 James Madison (12-19)

Saturday, March 6

G5-#1 Old Dominion (23-8) vs. Game 1 Winner

G6-#4 George Mason (17-13) vs. Game 2 Winner

G7-#2 Northeastern (19-11) vs. Game 3 Winner

G8-#3 William & Mary (20-9) vs. Game 4 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

There’s decent parity in this league, and any of the top seven seeds could emerge the victor.  Hofstra is the hottest team in the league, having finished the regular season with six consecutive wins and nine out of ten, including a double digit win at Northeastern.

Old Dominion has a road win against Georgetown this year, and the Monarchs would be a bubble team if they lost in the semifinals or finals.

Horizon League

Site: 1st Round at Higher Seed/All Others at Indianapolis

Tuesday, March 2

G1-#10 Youngstown (8-21) at #3 Green Bay (20-11)

G2-#9 Illinois-Chicago (8-21) at #4 Milwaukee (18-13)

G3-#8 Loyola (Chi) (14-15) at #5 Cleveland St. (15-16)

G4-#7 Detroit (18-13) at #6 Valparaiso (15-16)

Friday, March 5

G5-Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

G6-Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Saturday, March 6

Butler (26-4) vs. Game 6 Winner

Wright St. (19-11) vs. Game 5 Winner

Tuesday, March 9

Semifinal Winners

It’s all about Butler in this tournament.  The Bulldogs are going dancing win or lose, but they could move up to a number three seed by winning on March 9.  Detroit is the only team that gave Butler any trouble this year, so it could become interesting if the Titans beat Valpo, Green Bay, and Wright State to make it to the finals.


Site: Albany, NY

Friday, March 5

G1-#7 Canisius (14-16) vs. #10 Marist (1-28)

G2-#8 Loyola (Md) (13-16) vs. #9 Manhattan (10-19)

Saturday, March 6

G3-#1 Siena (24-6) vs. Game 2 Winner

G4-#2 Fairfield (20-9) vs. Game 1 Winner

G5-#3 Iona (21-9) vs. #6 Niagara (17-14)

G6-#4 St. Peter’s (16-13) vs. #5 Rider (16-15)

Sunday, March 7

Game 3 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

Siena’s resume does not allow them a Mulligan in this tournament.  The Saints have no signature wins, and they got their hat handed to them in the Bracketbuster game against Butler.  Siena has to win this tournament or it’s the NIT for them this year.

Fairfield gave Siena two close ballgames this year, and it could be hard for the Saints to beat the Stags three times.  

Iona is flying under the radar.  The Gaels won nine in a row in midseason, and they have the talent to make it to Monday night’s game.

Missouri Valley Conference

Site: St. Louis (Arch Madness)

Thursday, March 4

G1-#7 Missouri State (19-11) vs. #10 Evansville (9-20)

G2-#8 Drake (13-18) vs. #9 Southern Illinois (15-14)

Friday, March 5

G3-#1 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs. Game 2 Winner

G4-#2 Wichita State (23-8) vs. Game 1 Winner

G5-#3 Illinois State (21-9) vs. #6 Indiana St. (17-13)

G6-#4 Creighton (16-14) vs. #5 Bradley (15-14)

Saturday, March 6

Game 3 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Semifinal Winners

Northern Iowa won the regular season title by three games, but don’t consider the Panthers an overwhelming favorite.  A good case could be made for any of the top five teams, and nobody wants to play Ninth-seeded Southern Illinois.

This will be a great tournament, and you should make it a point to watch these games if you have access. 

UNI is a pretty safe bet to garner an at-large bid if they don’t win the automatic bid.  Wichita State was once in the discussion for an at-large bid after a 16-2 start, but the shockers finished 7-6.

Northeast Conference

Site: All Games Played at Higher Seed

Thursday, March 4

G1-#8 Monmouth (12-18) at #1 Quinnipiac (21-8)

G2-#7 Cent. Connecticut (12-17) at #2 Robert Morris (20-11)

G3-#6 St. Francis (Pa) (11-18) at #3 Mt. St. Mary’s (15-14)

G4-#5 Fairleigh Dickinson (11-20) at #4 Long Island (13-16)

Sunday, March 7

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner at higher seed

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner at higher seed

Wednesday, March 10

Semifinal Winners at higher seed

Rarely is the number three seed considered the favorite, but in the NEC, Mt. St. Mary’s must be considered just that.  The Mountaineers won their final 10 games, which included victories over the two top seeds.  MSM has been in the tournament title game the last two years, winning in 2008.  Point Guard Jeremy Goode cut down on his turnovers down the stretch and played more like he was capable of playing.  Look for the 5-9 hotshot to play his best and guide the Mountaineers back to the Championship Game, where they are liable to face Quinnipiac.

Bobcat star James Feldeine was held to just four points in the last meeting with MSM; he will be ready for blood in a title match.

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: 1st Round at higher seed/All Others at Nashville

Tuesday, March 2

G1-#8 Tennessee State (9-22) at #1 Murray State (27-4)

G2-#7 Jacksonville St. (11-18) at #2 Morehead St. (21-9)

G3-#6 Tennessee Tech (14-16) at #3 Austin Peay (17-14)

G4-#5 East. Kentucky (20-11) at #4 East. Illinois (18-11)

Friday, March 5

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Saturday, March 6

Semifinal Winners

Murray State won 27 games during the regular season, but even if the Racers lose in the title game, they will fall to the NIT.

Morehead State is the defending OVC Champion, and the Eagles have the league’s top player in Kenneth Faried (16.8 ppg/13.0 rpg).  Morehead won 17 of 20 down the stretch including a win over Murray St.

Austin Peay is always a force to be reckoned with in this tournament.  The Governors have been a regular in the championship round.

Patriot League

Site: All Games Played at Higher Seed

Wednesday, March 3

G1-#8 Army (14-14) at #1 Lehigh (19-10)

G2-#7 Holy Cross (8-21) at #2 Bucknell (14-16)

G3-#6 Colgate (10-18) at #3 Lafayette (17-12)

G4-#5 Navy (13-16) at #4 American (10-19)

Sunday, March 7

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner at Higher Seed

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner at Higher Seed

Friday, March 12

Semifinal Winners at Higher Seed

A month ago, Bucknell stood at 6-14 and looked like a possible 20-game loser.  The Bison turned it around and rebounded to go 8-2 down the stretch with a win over Lehigh.  One of the two losses was also to Lehigh, so this does not make Bucknell the favorite.

There is no clear-cut favorite in this league.  In fact, sixth-seeded Colgate has been playing as well an any team as the tournament opens.  The Raiders had Lehigh on the ropes a couple weeks ago before falling short at the end.

Southern Conference

Site: Charlotte

Friday, March 5

G1-#3N Chattanooga (14-17) vs. #6S Ga. Southern (9-22)

G2-#4N UNC-Greensboro (7-22) vs. #5S Furman (13-16)

G3-#3S Davidson (16-14) vs. #6N Elon (8-22)

G4-#4S Citadel (15-15) vs. #5N Samford (11-19)

Saturday, March 6

G5-#1N Appalachian St. (20-11) vs. Game 4 Winner

G6-#1S Wofford (23-8) vs. Game 2 Winner

G7-#2N Western Carolina (21-10) vs. Game 3 Winner

G8-#2S Charleston (20-10) vs. Game 1 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Game 5 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Game 6 Winner vs. Game 7 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

With Davidson just a middle of the pack team, the Socon Tournament becomes a wide-open race.  The top four seeds all have the talent to run the table, but Wofford must be considered the favorite.  The Terriers won their final 10 games and 19 of 21, after starting 4-6.

Keep an eye on College of Charleston.  Coach Bobby Cremins has talent at the guard spot, and he knows how to get to the Big Dance.

Summit League

Site: Sioux Falls, SD

Saturday, March 6

G1-#1 Oakland (23-8) vs. #8 Mo.-Kansas City (12-17)

G2-#2 I U P U I (22-9) vs. #7 Western Illinois (13-16)

Sunday, March 7

G3-#3 Oral Roberts (19-12) vs. #6 N. Dakota St. (11-17)

G4-#4 S. Dakota St. (14-15) vs. #5 I P F W (15-14)

Monday, March 8

Game 1 Winner vs. Game 4 Winner

Game 2 Winner vs. Game 3 Winner

Tuesday, March 9

Semifinal Winners

Oakland’s path to the Championship Game is not all that easy.  Last place UMKC was no pushover, and the Grizzlies didn’t win all that convincingly in the regular season.  A possible semifinal match with the host team, South Dakota State, will be even harder.  The Jackrabbits have the best backcourt in the league, but they are a little weak inside.  That’s where Oakland is strongest with 6-11 center Keith Benson, the league’s top player.

IUPUI won 12 of its final 14 games and blew Oakland off the floor by 24 points.  The Jaguars have an easier path to the title game.

Sunbelt Conference

Site: Hot Springs, AR (in two separate gyms)

Saturday, March 6

G1-#4 Western Kentucky (19-12) VS. #13 New Orleans (8-21)

G2-#5 Arkansas St. (16-13) vs. #12 Ark.-Little Rock (8-21)

G3-#6 Denver (17-12) vs. #11 Florida Int’l (7-24)

G4-#7 UL-Lafayette (13-16) vs. #10 UL-Monroe (11-18)

G5-#8 Fla. Atlantic (14-15) vs. #9 South Alabama (16-14)

Sunday, March 7

G6-#1 Troy (18-11) vs. Game 5 Winner

G7-#2 North Texas (21-8) vs. Game 4 Winner

G8-#3 Middle Tennessee (19-12) vs. Game 3 Winner

G9-Game 1 Winner vs. Game 2 Winner

Monday, March 8

Game 6 Winner vs. Game 9 Winner

Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Tuesday, March 9

Semifinal Winners

The top four seeds enter this tournament on high notes, but none are higher than Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers went 7-7 during the 14-games missed to injury by beefy forward Sergio Kerusch.  WKU defeated Vanderbilt, Murray State, and Mississippi State in the pre-conference schedule, and they could be headed back to the Big Dance for the third year in a row, as they ride a six-game winning streak entering the tournament.

North Texas comes into this tournament on an eight-game winning streak.  The Mean Green edged WKU in overtime during the time Kerusch was out.

Arkansas State is coming into this tournament as a darkhorse, but watch out for Red Wolves.  Former LSU coach John Brady’s squad swept North Texas; both wins were by double digits.  

West Coast Conference

Site: Las Vegas

Friday, March 5

G1-#5 Loyola Marymount (16-14) vs. #8 Pepperdine (7-23)

G2-#6 San Diego (10-20) vs. #7 Santa Clara (11-20)

Saturday, March 6

G3-#3 Portland (19-9) vs. Game 2 Winner

G4-#4 San Francisco (12-17) vs. Game 1 Winner

Sunday, March 7

Gonzaga (24-5) vs. Game 4 Winner

St. Mary’s (24-5) vs. Game 3 Winner

Monday, March 8

Semifinal Winners

For once, this is a three-team race.  Gonzaga swept St. Mary’s and Portland and will more than likely have to face one of the two for the championship.  It’s hard to beat a good team three times in a row, but the Bulldogs have the talent to do so.

St. Mary’s and Portland split a pair of really tight games, so there is no clear cut favorite if they meet in the Semifinals.  The Gaels benefit from getting an extra day off.

If any team from the first day of play has a chance, it is Loyola Marymount.  The Lions beat Gonzaga and Portland in February.  First year coach Max Good took a team picked to be last in the league and brought them home at 7-7 in WCC play.

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