Big Week For SEC & Big 10
Florida versus LSU, Alabama versus Ole Miss, Ohio State versus Wisconsin, and Iowa versus Michigan: At the end of this week, the SEC divisional races and Big 10 race could be decided. Unlike two weeks ago when as many as 25 games were vital for some reason or other, this week we get a concentrated dose of big games. If LSU upsets Florida in the Tigers’ Den, the Bayou Bengals could move up to number two. If Ole Miss beats Alabama at the same time, the SEC may be looking at every team suffering a loss before the year ends. Auburn is still undefeated, but nobody expects the War Eagles to run the table.
The Ohio State-Wisconsin game will be a great contrast in styles between a team with a better offense against a team with a better defense. If the Buckeyes hold serve at the giant horseshoe, they will be 5-0 in the conference when they play at Penn State on November 7. Ohio State must close out with Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan, and winning out could very easily have them back in the national title hunt.
Now, if Wisconsin wins at Ohio Stadium this week, they could make the highest entry into the Top 25 of a previously unrated team in a very long time. We cannot remember the last time a Big 10 team was 2-0 in the league and 5-0 overall and not rated. The Badgers face Iowa next week in Madison and winning the next two games would not only find them ranked, they would move all the way into the Top 10. If they can get to 7-0, it looks like the Badgers could run the table.
Iowa is a tough one to figure out. The Hawkeyes have impressive wins at Penn State and at home against Arizona, and they handled rival Iowa State in Ames with ease. Yet, they could have easily lost to Northern Iowa and Arkansas State. If they beat Michigan and then win in Madison a week later, they still have a tough climb to run the table. They still have road games at Michigan State and Ohio State plus home games with Northwestern and Minnesota. It would take a Penn State game effort in each one of these contests for Iowa to win.
What’s even tougher to figure out is Florida State. The Seminoles have major dissension within the coaching ranks. We hear that coaching meetings are more like talks between the Israelis and Palestinians. You have the Bobby Bowden and Mickey Andrews faction on one side of the room and the Jimbo Fisher faction on the other side. Fisher will ultimately be the winner and Bowden will go out awkwardly. We feel the Seminole program could suffer for years. It’s a bigger mess today than the Oakland Raiders. Maybe basketball coach Larry Brown had it right—coach for three or four years and then move on. Loyalty only means something to your employer as long as you keep winning, especially in the Deep South and Southwest where football unfortunately matters more than academics. Through the years, we saw it happen to Grant Teaff, Johnny Majors, Phil Fulmer, Pat Dye, and even to some extent Frank Broyles and Darrell Royal in 1976. Maybe, the American Federation of Teachers should admit coaches to their union and bargain for tenure on their behalf.
We want to make note of something. This is for all the readers who are sitting in front of their computers because they feel too apathetic to do anything. We have two words to tell you: “Stan Parrish.” Parrish is the head coach at Ball State. He works a long, 16-20 hour day, seven days a week during football season. He gives his all at his job. His career record as head coach after Saturday is 2-36-1. He preceded Bill Snyder’s first go around at Kansas State in 1986-1988. His last two teams in Manhattan failed to win a game. He took over a Ball State team that won 12 games in a row last year before losing in the MAC Championship Game. His Cardinal squad is 0-5 this year, and things don’t look up with a hot Temple team hosting BSU this week. Now, if this guy can continue to get to the office at 6 AM and some days work past midnight, you can get up and go about your day as well.
Speaking about going about our day, the PiRates recovered from a slow start Saturday and rebounded with an excellent Sunday. Last night’s “Favrebulous” game gave us three different wagering wins to finish 8-4. That makes our record for the year 25-15-1 for a 62.5% winning percentage.
The college season kicks off tonight with a Sunbelt Conference thriller. Middle Tennessee, fresh off wins over Memphis and Maryland visits perennial league champion Troy. The winner of this game will have a huge leg up in the SBC, although Lousiana-Monroe could make a statement with a win over Arkansas State next Tuesday night.
Here is this week’s PiRate Top 25. Remember, these are not true rankings like a poll. These are ratings that try to gauge team strength. We take our ratings as the base when picking our games. However, we may adjust them by as much as two touchdowns based on a multitude of tangible and intangible information pertinent only to that one game. Therefore, remember this: NEVER use the raw PiRate Ratings to select games against the spread. If you want to know which games we are picking against the spread, then click on www.piratings.webs.com, and you can purchase our picks for the low rate of $5. It’s just enough to cover our operating expenses for the five of us (pizza, brats steamed in Leinenkugel’s, cheese curds, and gas for the tractor to make it up and down highway K.)
NCAA Top 25 For October 5, 2009 |
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Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
1 |
Florida |
138.6 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
Texas |
133.0 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
Oklahoma |
129.8 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
Alabama |
127.3 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
Southern Cal |
124.2 |
4 |
1 |
6 |
Va. Tech |
119.3 |
4 |
1 |
7 |
Ole Miss |
118.1 |
3 |
1 |
8 |
Ohio St. |
117.6 |
4 |
1 |
9 |
Iowa |
117.6 |
5 |
0 |
10 |
Boise St. |
116.1 |
5 |
0 |
11 |
Nebraska |
116.1 |
3 |
1 |
12 |
T C U |
115.6 |
4 |
0 |
13 |
Penn St. |
114.7 |
4 |
1 |
14 |
Miami (Fla.) |
114.6 |
3 |
1 |
15 |
Georgia Tech |
114.4 |
4 |
1 |
16 |
California |
114.4 |
3 |
2 |
17 |
Oregon |
113.9 |
4 |
1 |
18 |
Okla. St. |
113.4 |
3 |
1 |
19 |
L S U |
112.4 |
5 |
0 |
20 |
Kansas |
112.1 |
4 |
0 |
21 |
Stanford |
112.1 |
4 |
1 |
22 |
Pittsburgh |
112.1 |
4 |
1 |
23 |
Texas Tech |
112.1 |
3 |
2 |
24 |
B Y U |
111.3 |
4 |
1 |
25 |
Arizona |
111.0 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
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Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point |
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Even though I rank them to two decimal points |
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||
Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Florida State |
0-2 |
2-3 |
110.4 |
Boston College |
2-1 |
4-1 |
109.7 |
North Carolina State |
0-1 |
3-2 |
108.7 |
Clemson |
1-2 |
2-3 |
108.6 |
Wake Forest |
1-1 |
3-2 |
107.6 |
Maryland |
1-0 |
2-3 |
91.5 |
Coastal Division |
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Virginia Tech |
2-0 |
4-1 |
119.3 |
Miami-FL |
2-1 |
3-1 |
114.6 |
Georgia Tech |
2-1 |
4-1 |
114.4 |
North Carolina |
0-2 |
3-2 |
106.3 |
Duke |
0-1 |
2-3 |
97.8 |
Virginia |
1-0 |
1-3 |
97.5 |
Big East Conference |
|||
|
|
|
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Pittsburgh |
1-0 |
4-1 |
112.1 |
Cincinnati |
1-0 |
5-0 |
110.9 |
South Florida |
1-0 |
5-0 |
109.6 |
Connecticut |
0-0 |
3-1 |
105.0 |
West Virginia |
0-0 |
3-1 |
103.1 |
Rutgers |
0-1 |
3-1 |
100.4 |
Syracuse |
0-1 |
2-3 |
93.8 |
Louisville |
0-1 |
1-3 |
92.3 |
Big Ten |
|||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Ohio State |
2-0 |
4-1 |
117.6 |
Iowa |
1-0 |
5-0 |
117.6 |
Penn State |
1-1 |
4-1 |
114.7 |
Michigan |
1-1 |
4-1 |
103.7 |
Wisconsin |
2-0 |
5-0 |
102.5 |
Michigan State |
1-1 |
2-3 |
101.7 |
Minnesota |
1-1 |
3-2 |
100.4 |
Purdue |
0-1 |
1-4 |
96.4 |
Illinois |
0-2 |
1-3 |
96.1 |
Northwestern |
1-1 |
3-2 |
95.5 |
Indiana |
0-2 |
3-2 |
93.4 |
Big 12 |
|||
North Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Nebraska |
0-0 |
3-1 |
116.1 |
Kansas |
0-0 |
4-0 |
112.1 |
Missouri |
0-0 |
4-0 |
108.0 |
Colorado |
0-0 |
1-3 |
95.8 |
Kansas State |
1-0 |
3-2 |
95.6 |
Iowa State |
0-1 |
3-2 |
92.9 |
South Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Texas |
1-0 |
4-0 |
133.0 |
Oklahoma |
0-0 |
2-2 |
129.8 |
Oklahoma State |
0-0 |
3-1 |
113.4 |
Texas Tech |
0-1 |
3-2 |
112.1 |
Baylor |
0-0 |
3-1 |
104.1 |
Texas A&M |
0-0 |
3-1 |
97.8 |
Conference USA |
|||
East Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Southern Mississippi |
1-1 |
3-2 |
100.0 |
East Carolina |
2-0 |
3-2 |
99.3 |
Marshall |
1-1 |
3-2 |
94.1 |
Central Florida |
1-2 |
3-2 |
93.4 |
U A B |
2-1 |
2-3 |
89.3 |
Memphis |
0-2 |
1-4 |
84.0 |
West Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Houston |
0-1 |
3-1 |
105.1 |
Tulsa |
2-0 |
4-1 |
101.7 |
U T E P |
1-0 |
2-3 |
92.9 |
S M U |
1-0 |
2-2 |
85.3 |
Rice |
0-2 |
0-5 |
85.3 |
Tulane |
0-1 |
2-2 |
75.6 |
Independents |
|||
Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
Notre Dame |
4-1 |
109.2 |
|
Navy |
3-2 |
98.7 |
|
Army |
2-3 |
79.8 |
Mid American Conference |
|||
East Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Temple |
2-0 |
2-2 |
97.3 |
Buffalo |
0-2 |
1-4 |
92.3 |
Ohio U |
1-0 |
3-2 |
91.6 |
Bowling Green |
0-1 |
1-4 |
87.5 |
Akron |
0-1 |
1-3 |
84.1 |
Kent St. |
1-0 |
2-3 |
83.4 |
Miami (O) |
0-2 |
0-5 |
75.8 |
West Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Central Michigan |
2-0 |
4-1 |
104.4 |
Northern Illinois |
1-0 |
3-2 |
93.6 |
Toledo |
1-0 |
3-2 |
93.2 |
Western Michigan |
1-1 |
2-3 |
85.9 |
Eastern Michigan |
0-1 |
0-4 |
85.4 |
Ball State |
0-1 |
0-5 |
82.0 |
Mountain West Conference |
|||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
T C U |
0-0 |
4-0 |
115.6 |
B Y U |
1-0 |
4-1 |
111.3 |
Utah |
0-0 |
3-1 |
106.0 |
Air Force |
2-0 |
3-2 |
98.5 |
Colo. State |
0-1 |
3-2 |
95.4 |
S. D. State |
0-1 |
2-3 |
88.3 |
UNLV |
0-1 |
2-3 |
88.1 |
Wyoming |
1-0 |
3-2 |
87.5 |
New Mexico |
0-1 |
0-5 |
77.6 |
Pac-10 Conference |
|||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Southern Cal |
2-1 |
4-1 |
124.2 |
California |
0-2 |
3-2 |
114.4 |
Oregon |
2-0 |
4-1 |
113.9 |
Stanford |
3-0 |
4-1 |
112.1 |
Arizona |
1-0 |
3-1 |
111.0 |
U C L A |
0-1 |
3-1 |
105.8 |
Oregon St. |
1-1 |
3-2 |
103.9 |
Arizona St. |
0-1 |
2-2 |
103.4 |
Washington |
1-1 |
2-3 |
101.6 |
Wash. St. |
0-3 |
1-4 |
77.0 |
Southeastern Conference |
|||
East Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Florida |
2-0 |
4-0 |
138.6 |
Georgia |
2-1 |
3-2 |
110.8 |
South Carolina |
1-1 |
4-1 |
107.6 |
Tennessee |
0-2 |
2-3 |
106.6 |
Kentucky |
0-2 |
2-2 |
101.9 |
Vanderbilt |
0-3 |
2-3 |
100.0 |
West Division | |||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Alabama |
2-0 |
5-0 |
127.3 |
Ole Miss |
1-1 |
3-1 |
118.1 |
L S U |
3-0 |
5-0 |
112.4 |
Auburn |
2-0 |
5-0 |
108.6 |
Arkansas |
0-2 |
2-2 |
106.9 |
Mississippi State |
1-2 |
2-3 |
96.7 |
Sunbelt Conference |
|||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Troy |
1-0 |
2-2 |
95.3 |
Arkansas State |
0-1 |
1-3 |
92.0 |
Middle Tennessee |
1-0 |
3-1 |
91.7 |
Florida International |
0-1 |
0-4 |
86.6 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
2-0 |
2-3 |
87.8 |
Louisiana |
0-0 |
2-2 |
83.0 |
Florida Atlantic |
0-1 |
0-4 |
82.0 |
North Texas |
0-1 |
1-3 |
78.6 |
Western Kentucky |
0-0 |
0-4 |
75.1 |
Western Athletic Conference |
|||
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
Boise State |
1-0 |
5-0 |
116.1 |
Fresno State |
0-1 |
1-3 |
99.5 |
Nevada |
0-0 |
1-3 |
97.8 |
Utah State |
0-0 |
1-3 |
96.3 |
Louisiana Tech |
1-0 |
2-2 |
94.6 |
San Jose State |
0-0 |
1-3 |
89.1 |
Idaho |
1-0 |
4-1 |
88.0 |
Hawaii |
0-1 |
2-2 |
87.5 |
New Mexico State |
0-1 |
2-3 |
72.9 |
This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings |
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Home Team in CAPS | (N) Denotes Neutral Site |
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Tuesday, October 6 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
TROY | M t s u |
6.3 |
30-24 |
2 |
|
|
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Thursday, October 8 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
Nebraska | MISSOURI |
5.1 |
28-23 |
2 |
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|
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Friday, October 9 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
NEVADA | Louisiana Tech |
6.7 |
38-31 |
2 |
|
|
|
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Saturday, October 10 |
PiRate Spread |
|
|
|
Favorite | Underdog |
Score |
Mean |
|
VIRGINIA TECH | Boston College |
13.1 |
27-14 |
11 |
ARKANSAS | Auburn |
1.3 |
38-37 |
-6 |
NORTHWESTERN | Miami (O) |
22.7 |
30-7 |
22 |
MINNESOTA | Purdue |
7.3 |
41-34 |
6 |
West Virginia | SYRACUSE |
6.5 |
31-24 |
10 |
Vanderbilt | ARMY |
17.7 |
31-13 |
8 |
Michigan State | ILLINOIS |
2.8 |
24-21 |
5 |
C M U | E m u |
21.8 |
35-13 |
25 |
Georgia | TENNESSEE |
0.9 |
17-16 |
0 |
Oklahoma State | TEXAS A&M |
12.6 |
37-24 |
6 |
KANSAS | Iowa State |
22.2 |
42-20 |
21 |
SOUTH CAROLINA | Kentucky |
9.0 |
23-14 |
10 |
Houston | MISSISSIPPI STATE |
5.1 |
42-37 |
2 |
TEMPLE | Ball State |
18.0 |
31-13 |
15 |
WYOMING | New Mexico |
13.2 |
30-17 |
12 |
Alabama | OLE MISS |
6.0 |
27-21 |
7 |
OHIO STATE | Wisconsin |
18.6 |
40-21 |
10 |
Oregon | U C L A |
4.8 |
35-30 |
8 |
OKLAHOMA | Baylor |
29.1 |
35-6 |
20 |
PITTSBURGH | Connecticut |
10.1 |
27-17 |
7 |
Navy | RICE |
9.9 |
30-20 |
15 |
VIRGINIA | Indiana |
7.4 |
27-20 |
5 |
Bowling Green | KENT STATE |
1.6 |
28-26 |
5 |
Marshall | TULANE |
15.8 |
37-21 |
7 |
N. C. STATE | Duke |
13.9 |
35-21 |
14 |
Arizona State | WASHINGTON ST. |
23.7 |
41-17 |
13 |
Utah | COLORADO STATE |
7.6 |
28-20 |
8 |
Ohio U | AKRON |
4.8 |
28-23 |
6 |
WAKE FOREST | Maryland |
19.1 |
35-16 |
15 |
F i u | W K U |
9.0 |
28-19 |
5 |
Stanford | OREGON STATE |
4.7 |
31-26 |
1 |
U L L | N. Texas |
7.1 |
30-23 |
9 |
TEXAS TECH | Kansas State |
19.5 |
40-20 |
16 |
TOLEDO | W m u |
10.3 |
38-28 |
6 |
TEXAS | Colorado |
40.9 |
55-14 |
33 |
T c u | AIR FORCE |
14.1 |
28-14 |
10 |
Southern Miss | LOUISVILLE |
5.0 |
31-26 |
3 |
Florida | L S U |
22.5 |
40-17 |
8 |
Georgia Tech | FLORIDA STATE |
1.0 |
28-27 |
1 |
SAN JOSE ST. | Idaho |
4.1 |
27-23 |
-1 |
Utah State | NEW MEXICO STATE |
20.7 |
38-17 |
9 |
U t e p | MEMPHIS |
6.2 |
34-28 |
5 |
E c u | S M U |
11.0 |
38-27 |
6 |
IOWA | Michigan |
17.4 |
30-13 |
14 |
B y u | U N L V |
20.2 |
41-21 |
16 |
Arizona | WASHINGTON |
5.9 |
27-21 |
5 |
Fresno State | HAWAII |
8.0 |
28-20 |
7 |