The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 5, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–October 6-10, 2009

Big Week For SEC & Big 10

 

Florida versus LSU, Alabama versus Ole Miss, Ohio State versus Wisconsin, and Iowa versus Michigan:  At the end of this week, the SEC divisional races and Big 10 race could be decided.  Unlike two weeks ago when as many as 25 games were vital for some reason or other, this week we get a concentrated dose of big games.  If LSU upsets Florida in the Tigers’ Den, the Bayou Bengals could move up to number two.  If Ole Miss beats Alabama at the same time, the SEC may be looking at every team suffering a loss before the year ends.  Auburn is still undefeated, but nobody expects the War Eagles to run the table.

 

The Ohio State-Wisconsin game will be a great contrast in styles between a team with a better offense against a team with a better defense.  If the Buckeyes hold serve at the giant horseshoe, they will be 5-0 in the conference when they play at Penn State on November 7.  Ohio State must close out with Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan, and winning out could very easily have them back in the national title hunt. 

 

Now, if Wisconsin wins at Ohio Stadium this week, they could make the highest entry into the Top 25 of a previously unrated team in a very long time.  We cannot remember the last time a Big 10 team was 2-0 in the league and 5-0 overall and not rated.  The Badgers face Iowa next week in Madison and winning the next two games would not only find them ranked, they would move all the way into the Top 10.  If they can get to 7-0, it looks like the Badgers could run the table.

 

Iowa is a tough one to figure out.  The Hawkeyes have impressive wins at Penn State and at home against Arizona, and they handled rival Iowa State in Ames with ease.  Yet, they could have easily lost to Northern Iowa and Arkansas State.  If they beat Michigan and then win in Madison a week later, they still have a tough climb to run the table.  They still have road games at Michigan State and Ohio State plus home games with Northwestern and Minnesota.  It would take a Penn State game effort in each one of these contests for Iowa to win.

 

What’s even tougher to figure out is Florida State.  The Seminoles have major dissension within the coaching ranks.  We hear that coaching meetings are more like talks between the Israelis and Palestinians.  You have the Bobby Bowden and Mickey Andrews faction on one side of the room and the Jimbo Fisher faction on the other side.  Fisher will ultimately be the winner and Bowden will go out awkwardly.  We feel the Seminole program could suffer for years.  It’s a bigger mess today than the Oakland Raiders.  Maybe basketball coach Larry Brown had it right—coach for three or four years and then move on.  Loyalty only means something to your employer as long as you keep winning, especially in the Deep South and Southwest where football unfortunately matters more than academics.  Through the years, we saw it happen to Grant Teaff, Johnny Majors, Phil Fulmer, Pat Dye, and even to some extent Frank Broyles and Darrell Royal in 1976.  Maybe, the American Federation of Teachers should admit coaches to their union and bargain for tenure on their behalf.

 

We want to make note of something.  This is for all the readers who are sitting in front of their computers because they feel too apathetic to do anything.  We have two words to tell you: “Stan Parrish.”  Parrish is the head coach at Ball State.  He works a long, 16-20 hour day, seven days a week during football season.  He gives his all at his job.  His career record as head coach after Saturday is 2-36-1.  He preceded Bill Snyder’s first go around at Kansas State in 1986-1988.  His last two teams in Manhattan failed to win a game.  He took over a Ball State team that won 12 games in a row last year before losing in the MAC Championship Game.  His Cardinal squad is 0-5 this year, and things don’t look up with a hot Temple team hosting BSU this week.  Now, if this guy can continue to get to the office at 6 AM and some days work past midnight, you can get up and go about your day as well.

 

Speaking about going about our day, the PiRates recovered from a slow start Saturday and rebounded with an excellent Sunday.  Last night’s “Favrebulous” game gave us three different wagering wins to finish 8-4.  That makes our record for the year 25-15-1 for a 62.5% winning percentage.

 

The college season kicks off tonight with a Sunbelt Conference thriller.  Middle Tennessee, fresh off wins over Memphis and Maryland visits perennial league champion Troy.  The winner of this game will have a huge leg up in the SBC, although Lousiana-Monroe could make a statement with a win over Arkansas State next Tuesday night.

 

Here is this week’s PiRate Top 25.  Remember, these are not true rankings like a poll.  These are ratings that try to gauge team strength.  We take our ratings as the base when picking our games.  However, we may adjust them by as much as two touchdowns based on a multitude of tangible and intangible information pertinent only to that one game.  Therefore, remember this:  NEVER use the raw PiRate Ratings to select games against the spread.  If you want to know which games we are picking against the spread, then click on www.piratings.webs.com, and you can purchase our picks for the low rate of $5.  It’s just enough to cover our operating expenses for the five of us (pizza, brats steamed in Leinenkugel’s, cheese curds,  and gas for the tractor to make it up and down highway K.)

 

NCAA Top 25 For October 5, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

138.6

4

0

2

Texas

133.0

4

0

3

Oklahoma

129.8

2

2

4

Alabama

127.3

5

0

5

Southern Cal

124.2

4

1

6

Va. Tech

119.3

4

1

7

Ole Miss

118.1

3

1

8

Ohio St.

117.6

4

1

9

Iowa

117.6

5

0

10

Boise St.

116.1

5

0

11

Nebraska

116.1

3

1

12

T C U

115.6

4

0

13

Penn St.

114.7

4

1

14

Miami (Fla.)

114.6

3

1

15

Georgia Tech

114.4

4

1

16

California

114.4

3

2

17

Oregon

113.9

4

1

18

Okla. St.

113.4

3

1

19

L  S  U

112.4

5

0

20

Kansas

112.1

4

0

21

Stanford

112.1

4

1

22

Pittsburgh

112.1

4

1

23

Texas Tech

112.1

3

2

24

B  Y  U

111.3

4

1

25

Arizona

111.0

3

1

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

Even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-2

2-3

110.4

Boston College

2-1

4-1

109.7

North Carolina State

0-1

3-2

108.7

Clemson

1-2

2-3

108.6

Wake Forest

1-1

3-2

107.6

Maryland

1-0

2-3

91.5

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

2-0

4-1

119.3

Miami-FL

2-1

3-1

114.6

Georgia Tech

2-1

4-1

114.4

North Carolina

0-2

3-2

106.3

Duke

0-1

2-3

97.8

Virginia

1-0

1-3

97.5

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

1-0

4-1

112.1

Cincinnati

1-0

5-0

110.9

South Florida

1-0

5-0

109.6

Connecticut

0-0

3-1

105.0

West Virginia

0-0

3-1

103.1

Rutgers

0-1

3-1

100.4

Syracuse

0-1

2-3

93.8

Louisville

0-1

1-3

92.3

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Ohio State

2-0

4-1

117.6

Iowa

1-0

5-0

117.6

Penn State

1-1

4-1

114.7

Michigan

1-1

4-1

103.7

Wisconsin

2-0

5-0

102.5

Michigan State

1-1

2-3

101.7

Minnesota

1-1

3-2

100.4

Purdue

0-1

1-4

96.4

Illinois

0-2

1-3

96.1

Northwestern

1-1

3-2

95.5

Indiana

0-2

3-2

93.4

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

3-1

116.1

Kansas

0-0

4-0

112.1

Missouri

0-0

4-0

108.0

Colorado

0-0

1-3

95.8

Kansas State

1-0

3-2

95.6

Iowa State

0-1

3-2

92.9

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

1-0

4-0

133.0

Oklahoma

0-0

2-2

129.8

Oklahoma State

0-0

3-1

113.4

Texas Tech

0-1

3-2

112.1

Baylor

0-0

3-1

104.1

Texas A&M

0-0

3-1

97.8

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

1-1

3-2

100.0

East Carolina

2-0

3-2

99.3

Marshall

1-1

3-2

94.1

Central Florida

1-2

3-2

93.4

U A B

2-1

2-3

89.3

Memphis

0-2

1-4

84.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

0-1

3-1

105.1

Tulsa

2-0

4-1

101.7

U T E P

1-0

2-3

92.9

S M U

1-0

2-2

85.3

Rice

0-2

0-5

85.3

Tulane

0-1

2-2

75.6

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

4-1

109.2

Navy  

3-2

98.7

Army  

2-3

79.8

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

2-0

2-2

97.3

Buffalo

0-2

1-4

92.3

Ohio U

1-0

3-2

91.6

Bowling Green

0-1

1-4

87.5

Akron

0-1

1-3

84.1

Kent St.

1-0

2-3

83.4

Miami (O)

0-2

0-5

75.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

2-0

4-1

104.4

Northern Illinois

1-0

3-2

93.6

Toledo

1-0

3-2

93.2

Western Michigan

1-1

2-3

85.9

Eastern Michigan

0-1

0-4

85.4

Ball State

0-1

0-5

82.0

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

4-0

115.6

B Y U

1-0

4-1

111.3

Utah

0-0

3-1

106.0

Air Force

2-0

3-2

98.5

Colo. State

0-1

3-2

95.4

S. D. State

0-1

2-3

88.3

UNLV

0-1

2-3

88.1

Wyoming

1-0

3-2

87.5

New Mexico

0-1

0-5

77.6

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

2-1

4-1

124.2

California

0-2

3-2

114.4

Oregon

2-0

4-1

113.9

Stanford

3-0

4-1

112.1

Arizona

1-0

3-1

111.0

U C L A

0-1

3-1

105.8

Oregon St.

1-1

3-2

103.9

Arizona St.

0-1

2-2

103.4

Washington

1-1

2-3

101.6

Wash. St.

0-3

1-4

77.0

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

2-0

4-0

138.6

Georgia

2-1

3-2

110.8

South Carolina

1-1

4-1

107.6

Tennessee

0-2

2-3

106.6

Kentucky

0-2

2-2

101.9

Vanderbilt

0-3

2-3

100.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

2-0

5-0

127.3

Ole Miss

1-1

3-1

118.1

L S U

3-0

5-0

112.4

Auburn

2-0

5-0

108.6

Arkansas

0-2

2-2

106.9

Mississippi State

1-2

2-3

96.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

1-0

2-2

95.3

Arkansas State

0-1

1-3

92.0

Middle Tennessee

1-0

3-1

91.7

Florida International

0-1

0-4

86.6

Louisiana-Monroe

2-0

2-3

87.8

Louisiana

0-0

2-2

83.0

Florida Atlantic

0-1

0-4

82.0

North Texas

0-1

1-3

78.6

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-4

75.1

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

1-0

5-0

116.1

Fresno State

0-1

1-3

99.5

Nevada

0-0

1-3

97.8

Utah State

0-0

1-3

96.3

Louisiana Tech

1-0

2-2

94.6

San Jose State

0-0

1-3

89.1

Idaho

1-0

4-1

88.0

Hawaii

0-1

2-2

87.5

New Mexico State

0-1

2-3

72.9

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 6  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

TROY M  t  s  u

6.3

30-24

2

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 8  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Nebraska MISSOURI

5.1

28-23

2

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 9  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

NEVADA Louisiana Tech

6.7

38-31

2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 10  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

VIRGINIA TECH Boston College

13.1

27-14

11

ARKANSAS Auburn

1.3

38-37

-6

NORTHWESTERN Miami (O)

22.7

30-7

22

MINNESOTA Purdue

7.3

41-34

6

West Virginia SYRACUSE

6.5

31-24

10

Vanderbilt ARMY

17.7

31-13

8

Michigan State ILLINOIS

2.8

24-21

5

C  M  U E  m  u

21.8

35-13

25

Georgia TENNESSEE

0.9

17-16

0

Oklahoma State TEXAS A&M

12.6

37-24

6

KANSAS Iowa State

22.2

42-20

21

SOUTH CAROLINA Kentucky

9.0

23-14

10

Houston MISSISSIPPI STATE

5.1

42-37

2

TEMPLE Ball State

18.0

31-13

15

WYOMING New Mexico

13.2

30-17

12

Alabama OLE MISS

6.0

27-21

7

OHIO STATE Wisconsin

18.6

40-21

10

Oregon U  C  L  A

4.8

35-30

8

OKLAHOMA Baylor

29.1

35-6

20

PITTSBURGH Connecticut

10.1

27-17

7

Navy RICE

9.9

30-20

15

VIRGINIA Indiana

7.4

27-20

5

Bowling Green KENT STATE

1.6

28-26

5

Marshall TULANE

15.8

37-21

7

N. C. STATE Duke

13.9

35-21

14

Arizona State WASHINGTON ST.

23.7

41-17

13

Utah COLORADO STATE

7.6

28-20

8

Ohio U AKRON

4.8

28-23

6

WAKE FOREST Maryland

19.1

35-16

15

F  i  u W  K  U

9.0

28-19

5

Stanford OREGON STATE

4.7

31-26

1

U  L  L N. Texas

7.1

30-23

9

TEXAS TECH Kansas State

19.5

40-20

16

TOLEDO W  m  u

10.3

38-28

6

TEXAS Colorado

40.9

55-14

33

T  c  u AIR FORCE

14.1

28-14

10

Southern Miss LOUISVILLE

5.0

31-26

3

Florida L  S  U

22.5

40-17

8

Georgia Tech FLORIDA STATE

1.0

28-27

1

SAN JOSE ST. Idaho

4.1

27-23

-1

Utah State NEW MEXICO STATE

20.7

38-17

9

U  t  e  p MEMPHIS

6.2

34-28

5

E  c  u S  M  U

11.0

38-27

6

IOWA Michigan

17.4

30-13

14

B  y  u U  N  L  V

20.2

41-21

16

Arizona WASHINGTON

5.9

27-21

5

Fresno State HAWAII

8.0

28-20

7

 

September 28, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Picks For College Football–September 30-October 3, 2009

A Week That Was As Good As Advertised

 

Last week we told you this past weekend looked to us to be the most important weekends of the season with a lot on the line.  We keyed on 25 games that we thought would go a long way in determining the pecking order.  We were more than satisfied.

 

First, let us toot our own horn.  At our sister site (www.piratings.webs.com), we had 43 subscribers who paid the meager sum of $5 to get our picks for the weeks.  We rewarded them with a 6-1 week and had a 7-0 week in our sites until a late score cost us.  Considering that many of our handicapping peers are under 50% for the year against the spread, we are quite happy to be just a hair over 60% so far this season.

 

What is the theme for this week’s games?  We’ve discussed the college schedule, and we feel it is going to be a week chock full of letdown games, bounce back games, and games with teams that are either overrated or underrated.  We’ve spotted some opening lines we like, and as usual, we feel that the public (and thus the books) can only remember back one game.  Teams that played games that were aberrations from their norm should return towards their norm this week with a few exceptions.  One of those tough luck exceptions might be Baylor, as the Bears lost their heart and soul for the season when quarterback Robert Griffin went down for the year.

 

Mississippi State becomes a team to watch, but not for good reasons.  Coach Dan Mullen, in his first season as a head coach, made a grave mistake in the Bulldogs game with LSU, and it could be a deflating loss.  His squad was less than one foot away from the goalline in the final minute with third down coming up and MSU trailing LSU 30-24.  With a 5-11 and 200-pound stocky QB, it was a no-brainer to call a QB sneak.  It is almost 100% lethal from 10 inches away because the defense has to react before they can stop.  So, what did Mullen call for?  He called for a play-action pass, and it was batted away.  Then on 4th down, rather than run the QB sneak, he called for the option.  The QB turned and lost ground faking to the dive back, while LSU’s defense had time to react and push the line backwards.  By the time the QB chose to run the ball through the same area the dive back just went through, there was no hole.  How will MSU react?  They could mail it in the rest of the year and lose their remaining eight games, or they could get mad and upset Georgia Tech this week.  We’ll have to wait and see.

 

Here are the list of key games for this week.  There aren’t as many, and there won’t be nearly as many decisive games.

 

1. East Carolina at Marshall—As we told you last week, we like Marshall’s chances to sneak into the C-USA East race.  They are much tougher at home, and they are coming off a big road win.  ECU is one of those teams with a certain swagger that doesn’t seem to be bothered with tough road environments.  The winner of this game becomes the East Division co-favorite and will basically secure one of the conference’s bowl spots.  If Marshall wins this game, the rest of their schedule looks very manageable.  They play Tulane, UCF, and UTEP on the road, and get UAB, Southern Miss, and SMU at home.  A mild upset win here just might put them in the driver’s seat in the East.  An ECU win forces Southern Miss to do the same later in the season.

 

2. Wisconsin at Minnesota—A lot more than Paul Bunyan’s Axe is at stake this Saturday.  The winner of this game will be 2-0 in the league.  We’re not ready to pick either of these teams to challenge for the Big 10 title, but the winner still has a chance to play in a New Year’s Day Bowl.  These two teams’ are about to take on rather difficult schedules.  The Badgers must play at Ohio State and host Iowa in their next two games after this one.  The Gophers host Purdue next week and then play at Penn State and at Ohio State the following two weeks.  The loser of this game could fall deep down in the conference and be looking at the Motor City or Insight.com Bowl.

 

3. L S U at Georgia—Both teams are 2-0 in the SEC, so any time a team is 3-0 in the toughest league, it is important.  Neither team has proved it belongs in the top 10 thus far, but the winner could pick up enough momentum to keep going.  LSU can ill afford to look past this game, but they host Florida the week after.  If Georgia wins, they shold be 5-0 in the league by the time they head to Jacksonville for the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.  We believe that Florida and Alabama will both earn BCS Bowl bids.  The Capital One, Outback, and Cotton Bowls will be looking hard at this game, as both could end up in one of these games.

 

4. Oklahoma at Miami-Fl—Oklahoma has posted back-to-back shutouts since the opening loss to BYU.  With or without Sam Bradford, the Sooners appear to be on the cusp of righting the ship and being almost impossible to defeat.  If they hold Miami scoreless, then we have to start looking at them as possibly the number one team in the nation.  We think the Hurricanes will crack the scoreboard, but the Sooners appear to be at least two touchdowns better in this game at Landshark Stadium.  We’re going to monitor this one, because it should tell us whether OU’s recovery is full or partial.  If they win big, then watch out.  We referred last week to Alabama in 1975, and the 2009 Sooners could very well be following that pattern.

 

5. Michigan at Michigan State—The Spartans are the best 1-3 team in the nation for what that’s worth.  Michigan is very fortunate to still be undefeated.  This game should be a slobber-knocker, and we expect it to be very physical and rough.  This type of game is lost more than its won, so we must look to which team is more likely to make the pivotal mistake in the second half.  MSU has a recent history of being victimized by a boner play, but we think with their backs against the wall, they could be ready to knock down an undefeated team.  Whether or not it becomes one of our official picks is yet to e determined.

 

6. Kansas State vs. Iowa State (@ Kansas City)—Could Iowa State be in line for a bowl game in Paul Rhodes’ first season in Ames?  Could Bill Snyder right the ship in Manhattan in his first year back at KSU?  ISU is 3-1 for the first time since 2005, a year in which they finished 7-5 and played in the Houston Bowl.  If they can win in this semi-neutral game to move to 4-1, with Baylor and Colorado still to play, they could sneak into the Independence or Texas Bowl.  It won’t be easy, and it may be the decision to move this game to Kansas City rather than play it at Jack Trice Stadium that means the difference in playing in December.  We don’t see the Wildcats getting six wins this year, so a Kansas State win could lessen the number of bowl eligible teams in the Big 12.

 

7. U C L A at Stanford—This game is similar to the Wisconsin-Minnesota game.  Nobody expects either team to challenge for a Rose Bowl bid, but a Stanford win would move the Cardinal to 3-0 in the Pac 10.  UCLA is still undefeated for the season, but this is their first conference game.  It should be a close game with a lower than expected score.  The Bruins’ schedule gives them a chance to make some noise now that the two big teams have stubbed their toes in the league.  UCLA hosts Oregon and Cal and could put themselves in position to make the USC game worth a seventh game in Pasadena this year.  This game just may be the best one of the day.

 

8. Auburn at Tennessee—If the Tigers can win this one in Knoxville, then they very well may ascend to the number three spot in the league!  Ole Miss, LSU, and Georgia have not proven yet that they belong among the nation’s elite.  South Carolina and Tennessee have more to prove just to move into the discussion of being fifth best.  Auburn has the most to gain this week by winning on the road at Neyland Stadium.  Should Tennessee come up with a great defensive effort and shock the War Eagles, then watch out the following week when Georgia comes to town.  It should be a great chess match between Auburn Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn and Tennessee Defensive Coordinator Monte Kiffin.

 

9. Southern Cal at Cal—This game has lost most of its luster after both teams lost in recent weeks.  Cal looked more like Washington State against Oregon than Washington State did against USC.  The Trojans jumped out to a 20-0 lead and almost quit.  Cal never showed up against Oregon.  The loser of this game could mail it in the rest of the year.  If Cal loses at home, they could easily lose to UCLA, Arizona State, Stanford, and Washington.  They could fall as low as 6-6.  If USC loses, they could additionally lose to Notre Dame, Oregon, Arizona State, and UCLA.  They could fall as low as 6-6.  The winner could easily run the table and still end up in Pasadena, but we won’t be ready to crown the winner as the frontrunner.

 

NCAA Top 25 For September 28, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

138.6

4

0

2

Texas

133.0

4

0

3

Oklahoma

132.7

2

1

4

Alabama

127.1

4

0

5

Southern Cal

120.7

3

1

6

Va. Tech

120.5

3

1

7

Iowa

118.9

4

0

8

Ole Miss

117.4

2

1

9

Ohio St.

117.3

3

1

10

California

117.2

3

1

11

Nebraska

116.1

3

1

12

Boise St.

115.3

4

0

13

T C U

114.9

3

0

14

Texas Tech

114.4

2

2

15

Georgia Tech

114.1

3

1

16

Penn St.

114.0

3

1

17

Okla. St.

113.4

3

1

18

Florida State

113.3

2

2

19

Georgia

112.6

3

1

20

Kansas

112.1

4

0

21

Stanford

111.9

3

1

22

Cincinnati

111.6

4

0

23

Arizona

111.0

3

1

24

Miami (Fla.)

110.9

2

1

25

B  Y  U

110.8

3

1

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-1

2-2

113.3

Clemson

1-1

2-2

112.1

North Carolina State

0-0

3-1

109.3

Boston College

1-1

3-1

107.0

Wake Forest

0-1

2-2

107.0

Maryland

0-0

1-3

89.0

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

1-0

3-1

120.5

Georgia Tech

2-1

3-1

114.1

Miami-FL

2-1

2-1

110.9

North Carolina

0-1

3-1

110.1

Duke

0-0

2-2

96.0

Virginia

0-0

0-3

95.0

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

1-0

4-0

111.6

Pittsburgh

0-0

3-1

110.0

South Florida

0-0

4-0

109.3

Connecticut

0-0

3-1

105.0

West Virginia

0-0

2-1

103.0

Rutgers

0-1

3-1

100.4

Louisville

0-0

1-2

94.4

Syracuse

0-0

2-2

94.1

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Iowa

1-0

4-0

118.9

Ohio State

1-0

3-1

117.3

Penn State

0-1

3-1

114.0

Michigan

1-0

4-0

103.9

Minnesota

1-0

3-1

102.1

Michigan State

0-1

1-3

101.5

Wisconsin

1-0

4-0

100.5

Purdue

0-0

1-3

97.4

Illinois

0-1

1-2

97.3

Northwestern

0-1

2-2

94.5

Indiana

0-1

3-1

93.7

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

3-1

116.1

Kansas

0-0

4-0

112.1

Missouri

0-0

4-0

108.0

Colorado

0-0

1-2

95.9

Kansas State

0-0

2-2

95.1

Iowa State

0-0

3-1

93.4

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

1-0

4-0

133.0

Oklahoma

0-0

2-1

132.7

Texas Tech

0-1

2-2

114.4

Oklahoma State

0-0

3-1

113.4

Baylor

0-0

2-1

105.6

Texas A&M

0-0

3-0

100.5

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

1-0

3-1

102.1

East Carolina

1-0

2-2

98.7

Marshall

1-0

3-1

94.7

Central Florida

0-2

2-2

92.0

U A B

1-1

1-3

87.2

Memphis

0-1

1-3

86.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

0-0

3-0

108.4

Tulsa

1-0

3-1

100.6

U T E P

0-0

1-3

89.2

Rice

0-1

0-4

86.4

S M U

1-0

2-1

85.5

Tulane

0-1

1-2

73.2

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

3-1

109.7

Navy  

2-2

98.6

Army  

2-2

82.2

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

1-0

1-2

94.9

Buffalo

0-1

1-3

92.5

Ohio U

0-0

2-2

89.7

Bowling Green

0-0

1-3

89.6

Akron

0-1

1-3

84.1

Kent St.

1-0

2-2

82.1

Miami (O)

0-2

0-4

74.6

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

1-0

3-1

104.2

Toledo

0-0

2-2

92.9

Northern Illinois

0-0

2-2

89.9

Western Michigan

1-0

2-2

89.6

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-3

88.1

Ball State

0-0

0-4

82.3

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

3-0

114.9

B Y U

1-0

3-1

110.8

Utah

0-0

3-1

106.0

Air Force

2-0

3-1

98.6

Colo. State

0-1

3-1

96.7

UNLV

0-1

2-2

92.8

S. D. State

0-1

1-3

88.1

Wyoming

1-0

2-2

87.3

New Mexico

0-1

0-4

76.2

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

1-1

3-1

120.7

California

0-1

3-1

117.2

Stanford

2-0

3-1

111.9

Arizona

1-0

3-1

111.0

Oregon

1-0

3-1

110.4

U C L A

0-0

3-0

106.3

Arizona St.

0-0

2-1

106.0

Oregon St.

0-1

2-2

101.7

Washington

1-1

2-2

100.3

Wash. St.

0-2

1-3

81.0

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

2-0

4-0

138.6

Georgia

2-0

3-1

112.6

South Carolina

1-1

3-1

107.4

Tennessee

0-1

2-2

107.3

Kentucky

0-1

2-1

101.8

Vanderbilt

0-2

2-2

101.3

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

1-0

4-0

127.1

Ole Miss

0-1

2-1

117.4

L S U

2-0

4-0

109.9

Auburn

1-0

4-0

107.9

Arkansas

0-2

1-2

104.0

Mississippi State

1-2

2-2

97.0

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

1-0

2-2

95.3

Middle Tennessee

1-0

3-1

91.7

Arkansas State

0-1

1-2

89.7

Florida International

0-0

0-3

87.2

Louisiana-Monroe

1-0

1-3

87.2

Louisiana

0-0

2-2

83.0

Florida Atlantic

0-1

0-3

82.2

North Texas

0-1

1-3

78.6

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-4

75.1

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

1-0

4-0

115.3

Fresno State

0-1

1-3

99.5

Utah State

0-0

1-2

96.8

Nevada

0-0

0-3

93.8

Louisiana Tech

0-0

1-2

91.8

Hawaii

0-0

2-1

89.8

San Jose State

0-0

1-3

89.1

Idaho

1-0

3-1

86.7

New Mexico State

0-1

2-2

73.1

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, September 30  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

LOUISIANA TECH Hawaii

6.0

30-24

-2

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

WEST VIRGINIA Colorado

11.1

28-17

15

Southern Miss U  A  B

12.4

34-22

12

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

Pittsburgh LOUISVILLE

12.4

28-16

9

B  Y  U Utah State

16.5

41-24

22

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Mean

South Florida SYRACUSE

11.9

28-16

15

East Carolina MARSHALL

1.0

21-20

-1

PURDUE Northwestern

6.1

34-28

9

MINNESOTA Wisconsin

4.6

31-26

-2

WAKE FOREST North Carolina St.

0.5

24-23

1

Clemson MARYLAND

20.3

34-14

14

NORTH CAROLINA Virginia

18.6

31-12

14

Florida State BOSTON COLLEGE

2.6

27-24

0

Central Michigan BUFFALO

8.9

37-28

11

Toledo BALL STATE

7.9

35-27

3

Alabama KENTUCKY

22.0

34-12

14

Ole Miss VANDERBILT

13.1

23-10

8

Cincinnati MIAMI (O)

34.5

42-7

32

Temple EASTERN MICHIGAN

4.1

28-24

6

ARMY Tulane

12.0

33-21

9

Virginia Tech DUKE

21.7

31-9

21

NOTRE DAME Washington

13.4

41-28

11

GEORGIA L  s  u

6.7

38-31

2

NAVY Air Force

3.5

28-24

2

Georgia Tech MISSISSIPPI STATE

13.8

35-21

7

Oklahoma MIAMI (FL)

18.3

28-10

8

Penn State ILLINOIS

13.4

20-7

12

MICHIGAN STATE Michigan

0.1

27-27 ot

0

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Western Michigan

3.3

27-24

8

BOWLING GREEN Ohio U

2.4

26-24

6

NEVADA U  n  l  v

3.3

31-28

2

Colorado St. IDAHO

7.0

31-24

4

Kansas State    (@KC) Iowa State

2.2

28-26

-1

ARIZONA STATE Oregon State

7.6

35-27

6

OREGON Washington State

32.7

40-7

32

BAYLOR Kent State

26.5

41-14

21

CENTRAL FLORIDA Memphis

8.9

33-24

9

STANFORD U  c  l  a

8.6

30-21

4

TEXAS TECH New Mexico

41.7

56-14

33

Ohio State INDIANA

20.6

31-10

15

Tulsa RICE

11.7

40-28

15

Arkansas TEXAS A&M

0.3

35-35 ot

3

TENNESSEE Auburn

2.9

20-17

0

Southern Cal CALIFORNIA

0.2

27-27 ot

1

T  C  U S  m  u

31.9

42-10

31

SAN DIEGO ST. New Mexico St.

17.8

31-13

12

Houston U  T  E  P

16.2

40-24

19

IOWA Arkansas State

33.2

40-7

31

Wyoming FLORIDA ATLANTIC

0.1

31-31 ot

0

UL-MONROE Florida Int’l

2.7

30-27

6

 

September 22, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Picks For College Football–September 24-26, 2009

As we told you earlier this week, the PiRates believe that this weekend’s games will decide more than any other week, save for the end of the season.  There are so many interesting and pivotal games that it would take a dozen televisions to see them all.

 

Our PiRate Ratings show that Florida lost some ground but continues to hold onto the top spot by almost a touchdown over number two.  Oklahoma has moved back to number two following two consecutive shutouts.  We remember back to the 1975 season when Alabama was upset by Missouri in a prime time national television broadcast to start the season.  For the next 11 games, nobody could compete with them.  After number one Ohio State lost in the Rose Bowl, Oklahoma won the 1975 national title. However, the PiRate Ratings gave Alabama a slight edge over the Sooners after the bowls.  Could Oklahoma be this year’s version of 1975 Alabama? 

 

Speaking of the Crimson Tide, Alabama looks to be stronger this year than last year with an even better passer in Greg McElroy.  We cannot wait for the October 10 matchup with Ole Miss.

 

Miami is the wildcard as of now.  The win over Florida State looks all the better now that FSU blew BYU off the field in Provo.  Georgia Tech couldn’t solve their defense, and quarterback Jacory Harris looked like Randall Cunningham.  If the Hurricanes can beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, the contest with Oklahoma on October 3 becomes their biggest game since the 2002 Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State.

 

NCAA Top 25 For September 22, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

138.3

3

0

2

Oklahoma

132.7

2

1

3

Texas

130.5

3

0

4

Alabama

123.8

3

0

5

Southern Cal

123.4

2

1

6

California

123.2

3

0

7

Ole Miss

121.0

2

0

8

Penn St.

117.3

3

0

9

Va. Tech

117.2

2

1

10

Florida State

117.0

2

1

11

Texas Tech

115.8

2

1

12

Iowa

115.2

3

0

13

Ohio St.

114.9

2

1

14

Georgia

114.4

2

1

15

Miami (Fla.)

114.0

2

0

16

Kansas

114.0

3

0

17

Cincinnati

113.8

3

0

18

Clemson

113.7

2

1

19

L S U

113.1

3

0

20

Okla. St.

113.1

2

1

21

T C U

113.0

2

0

22

N. Carolina

112.9

3

0

23

Nebraska

112.8

2

1

24

Boise St.

112.8

3

0

25

Pittsburgh

112.1

3

0

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-1

2-1

117.0

Clemson

1-1

2-1

113.7

Boston College

0-1

2-1

107.7

North Carolina State

0-0

2-1

106.9

Wake Forest

0-0

2-1

106.1

Maryland

0-0

1-2

90.8

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

2-1

117.2

Miami-FL

2-0

2-0

114.0

North Carolina

0-0

3-0

112.9

Georgia Tech

1-1

2-1

111.5

Duke

0-0

1-2

95.7

Virginia

0-0

0-3

95.0

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

1-0

3-0

113.8

Pittsburgh

0-0

3-0

112.1

South Florida

0-0

3-0

105.2

Connecticut

0-0

2-1

104.8

West Virginia

0-0

2-1

103.0

Rutgers

0-1

2-1

99.3

Louisville

0-0

1-1

94.4

Syracuse

0-0

1-2

94.3

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Penn State

0-0

3-0

117.3

Iowa

0-0

3-0

115.2

Ohio State

0-0

2-1

114.9

Michigan

0-0

3-0

106.8

Michigan State

0-0

1-2

102.1

Illinois

0-0

1-1

100.6

Minnesota

0-0

2-1

100.4

Wisconsin

0-0

3-0

99.7

Purdue

0-0

1-2

96.4

Northwestern

0-0

2-1

96.0

Indiana

0-0

3-0

90.5

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Kansas

0-0

3-0

114.0

Nebraska

0-0

2-1

112.8

Missouri

0-0

3-0

108.0

Colorado

0-0

1-2

95.9

Kansas State

0-0

1-2

94.9

Iowa State

0-0

2-1

92.2

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

2-1

132.7

Texas

1-0

3-0

130.5

Texas Tech

0-1

2-1

115.8

Oklahoma State

0-0

2-1

113.1

Baylor

0-0

1-1

105.4

Texas A&M

0-0

2-0

96.8

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

1-0

3-0

100.4

East Carolina

0-0

1-2

100.3

Marshall

0-0

2-1

93.8

Central Florida

0-1

2-1

90.3

U A B

1-1

1-2

90.3

Memphis

0-0

1-2

87.3

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

0-0

2-0

106.6

Tulsa

1-0

2-1

100.4

U T E P

0-0

1-2

91.7

Rice

0-1

0-3

87.9

S M U

1-0

2-1

85.5

Tulane

0-1

0-2

73.4

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

2-1

110.4

Navy  

1-2

100.2

Army  

2-1

83.6

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

95.3

Temple

0-0

0-2

92.3

Bowling Green

0-0

1-2

91.6

Ohio U

0-0

2-1

88.4

Akron

0-0

1-2

86.0

Kent St.

0-0

1-2

84.4

Miami (O)

0-1

0-3

73.3

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

0-0

2-1

102.5

Northern Illinois

0-0

2-1

92.8

Toledo

0-0

1-2

91.5

Western Michigan

1-0

1-2

89.5

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-3

88.1

Ball State

0-0

0-3

81.8

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

2-0

113.0

B Y U

0-0

2-1

110.5

Utah

0-0

2-1

106.0

Air Force

1-0

2-1

100.1

Colo. State

0-0

3-0

96.9

UNLV

0-0

2-1

93.1

S. D. State

0-0

1-2

86.8

Wyoming

0-0

1-2

86.7

New Mexico

0-1

0-3

78.8

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

0-1

2-1

123.4

California

0-0

3-0

123.2

Stanford

1-0

2-1

109.6

Arizona

0-0

2-1

108.9

U C L A

0-0

3-0

106.3

Oregon

0-0

2-1

104.4

Oregon St.

0-0

2-1

104.0

Arizona St.

0-0

2-0

103.8

Washington

1-0

2-1

103.1

Wash. St.

0-1

1-2

78.9

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

1-0

3-0

138.3

Georgia

2-0

2-1

114.4

Tennessee

0-1

1-2

109.1

South Carolina

0-1

2-1

104.7

Kentucky

0-0

2-0

102.1

Vanderbilt

0-2

1-2

100.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

3-0

123.8

Ole Miss

0-0

2-0

121.0

L S U

1-0

3-0

113.1

Auburn

1-0

3-0

108.2

Arkansas

0-1

1-1

106.8

Mississippi State

1-1

2-1

94.2

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

1-2

95.1

Middle Tennessee

0-0

2-1

91.1

Arkansas State

0-0

1-1

89.9

Florida International

0-0

0-2

88.8

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-3

87.2

Louisiana

0-0

2-1

86.6

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-2

82.2

North Texas

0-0

1-2

79.4

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-3

73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

1-0

3-0

112.8

Utah State

0-0

0-2

96.6

Fresno State

0-1

1-2

96.6

Nevada

0-0

0-2

93.8

Louisiana Tech

0-0

1-2

91.8

San Jose State

0-0

0-3

89.2

Hawaii

0-0

2-1

89.8

Idaho

1-0

2-1

82.5

New Mexico State

0-1

1-2

71.0

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 24  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

Ole Miss SOUTH CAROLINA

13.3

41-28

5

   

 

 

 

Friday, September 25  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

Missouri NEVADA

11.4

35-24

15

   

 

 

 

Saturday, September 26  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

BOSTON COLLEGE Wake Forest

4.8

28-23

4

OHIO STATE Illinois

18.0

28-10

21

Minnesota NORTHWESTERN

1.1

35-34

2

MICHIGAN Indiana

20.3

41-21

14

Buffalo TEMPLE

0.7

21-20

0

WISCONSIN Michigan State

0.6

28-27

4

CLEMSON T  c  u

4.5

24-19

0

Rutgers MARYLAND

5.5

27-21

3

Boise State BOWLING GREEN

17.7

42-24

17

TENNESSEE Ohio U

24.7

28-3

15

EAST CAROLINA Central Florida

13.0

30-17

7

CINCINNATI Fresno State

21.7

42-20

20

CENTRAL MICHIGAN Akron

19.5

34-14

14

L  s  u MISSISSIPPI STATE

15.9

30-14

12

IOWA STATE Army

12.4

28-16

10

Marshall MEMPHIS

3.5

24-20

2

TEXAS A&M Alabama-Birmingham

10.5

31-20

15

KANSAS Southern Miss.

17.1

41-24

14

AIR FORCE San Diego State

16.5

38-21

22

Vanderbilt RICE

8.8

26-17

5

AUBURN Ball State

30.9

38-7

27

U  n  l  v WYOMING

3.4

24-21

5

ALABAMA Arkansas

20.8

38-17

20

Florida KENTUCKY

32.7

47-14

20

GEORGIA Arizona State

15.6

44-28

7

California OREGON

15.5

37-21

3

FLORIDA STATE South Florida

14.3

35-21

9

GEORGIA TECH North Carolina

1.9

23-21

2

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Idaho

13.8

38-24

16

B  Y  U Colorado State

16.9

41-24

16

Pittsburgh NORTH CAROLINA ST.

2.0

26-24

6

STANFORD Washington

9.5

27-17

8

KENT STATE Miami (O)

13.6

24-10

10

UTAH Louisville

15.9

28-12

18

VIRGINIA TECH Miami (Fla.)

6.7

24-17

4

Notre Dame PURDUE

11.0

42-31

3

TEXAS U  t  e  p

42.3

56-14

34

PENN STATE Iowa

5.6

20-14

4

Texas Tech HOUSTON

6.2

34-28

3

NEW MEXICO New Mexico State

10.3

27-17

13

SOUTHERN CAL Washington State

48.5

56-7

37

OREGON STATE Arizona

3.9

28-24

2

Louisiana-Monroe FLORIDA ATLANTIC

2.0

28-26

-3

NEBRASKA Louisiana-Lafayette

30.2

37-7

22

NAVY Western Kentucky

30.3

40-10

30

Troy ARKANSAS STATE

2.4

24-22

1

Middle Tennessee NORTH TEXAS

8.7

30-21

8

FLORIDA INT’L Toledo

0.8

27-26

4

September 15, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads for College Football–September 17-19, 2009

Week 3—September 17-19, 2009

 

Another one bites the dust!  Of course, somebody had to lose when Southern Cal played Ohio State, but the Buckeyes weren’t the only losers coming out of the game.  The entire Big 10 took a blow.  Penn State, Michigan, and Iowa could still conceivably find a way to run the table, but unless the Pac-10 and Big 12 see every team lose at least one time, the Big 10 is going to be shut out in the national championship picture this year.

 

Charlie Weis added fuel to the fire that heats his hot seat by ordering two passing plays.  Weis may earn the Dick Jauron Award for finding ways to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory.  Throw Ralph Friedgen into the hot seat watch.  His Maryland Terrapins almost lost to James Madison.  He joins Virginia’s Al Groh from the ACC.

 

There are a handful of games promising to be exciting this week.  Let’s start with the Weeknight games.  Georgia Tech plays at Miami on Thursday and Boise State visits Fresno State on Friday.  A Miami win sets up two key Saturdays for the U.  The Hurricanes face Virginia Tech in Blacksburg next week and then host Oklahoma on October 3.  All of a sudden those games don’t look impossible if Miami can handle Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets’ schedule isn’t all that difficult, so a road win this week could set them up for a possible run similar to 1990.

 

On Saturday, the key games are Texas Tech vs. Texas, Nebraska vs. Virginia Tech, Auburn vs. West Virginia, Tennessee vs. Florida, and Cincinnati vs. Oregon State.  However, the contest that may affect the standings the most is the Brigham Young-Florida State game.  If the Cougars can thoroughly manhandle the Seminoles, it should solidify them high enough in the rankings to guarantee the eventual Mountain West Champion a spot in a BCS bowl, as long as that champion is undefeated.  TCU and Utah could move up high enough by defeating BYU and taking the league crown.

 

Here is this week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25 Ranking.  Remember that this list does not try to rank teams based on what they have done so far.  The PiRate Ratings are always looking ahead, so these rankings are based on what we expect of these teams this week. 

 

NCAA Top 25 For September 14, 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

142.5

2

0

2

Texas

132.5

2

0

3

Oklahoma

130.0

1

1

4

Southern Cal

128.1

2

0

5

California

123.4

2

0

6

Alabama

122.6

2

0

7

Ole Miss

120.6

1

0

8

Penn St.

117.9

2

0

9

Va. Tech

117.9

1

1

10

Okla. St.

115.7

1

1

11

B Y U

115.6

2

0

12

Iowa

115.0

2

0

13

Texas Tech

114.7

2

0

14

Georgia Tech

114.1

2

0

15

L S U

113.7

2

0

16

Kansas

113.4

2

0

17

N. Carolina

113.2

2

0

18

T C U

112.7

1

0

19

Boise St.

112.4

2

0

20

Ohio St.

112.2

1

1

21

Clemson

112.1

1

1

22

Pittsburgh

112.0

2

0

23

Nebraska

111.6

2

0

24

Notre Dame

110.9

1

1

25

Miami (Fla.)

110.8

1

0

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Here are the PiRate Ratings for all 120 teams, arranged by conferences.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-1

1-1

112.8

Clemson

0-1

1-1

112.1

Boston College

0-0

2-0

109.8

North Carolina State

0-0

1-1

107.2

Wake Forest

0-0

1-1

105.9

Maryland

0-0

1-1

93.6

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

1-1

117.9

Georgia Tech

1-0

2-0

114.1

North Carolina

0-0

2-0

113.2

Miami-FL

1-0

1-0

110.8

Virginia

0-0

0-2

94.5

Duke

0-0

1-1

96.5

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

0-0

2-0

112.0

Cincinnati

1-0

2-0

110.4

South Florida

0-0

2-0

104.9

West Virginia

0-0

2-0

103.0

Connecticut

0-0

1-1

100.6

Rutgers

0-1

1-1

100.5

Louisville

0-0

1-0

94.2

Syracuse

0-0

0-2

93.8

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Penn State

0-0

2-0

117.9

Iowa

0-0

2-0

115.0

Ohio State

0-0

1-1

112.2

Michigan

0-0

2-0

105.2

Michigan State

0-0

1-1

101.9

Purdue

0-0

1-1

101.2

Minnesota

0-0

2-0

100.9

Illinois

0-0

1-1

100.6

Wisconsin

0-0

2-0

99.4

Northwestern

0-0

2-0

96.6

Indiana

0-0

2-0

88.2

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Kansas

0-0

2-0

113.4

Nebraska

0-0

2-0

111.6

Missouri

0-0

2-0

107.6

Kansas State

0-0

1-1

94.6

Colorado

0-0

0-2

94.1

Iowa State

0-0

1-1

89.7

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

0-0

2-0

132.5

Oklahoma

0-0

1-1

130.0

Oklahoma State

0-0

1-1

115.7

Texas Tech

0-0

2-0

114.7

Baylor

0-0

1-0

109.9

Texas A&M

0-0

1-0

97.0

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

1-0

2-0

101.2

East Carolina

0-0

1-1

100.2

Marshall

0-0

1-1

93.6

U A B

1-1

1-1

88.8

Central Florida

0-1

1-1

88.1

Memphis

0-0

0-2

87.6

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

0-0

2-0

106.6

Tulsa

1-0

2-0

103.8

U T E P

0-0

0-2

89.6

S M U

1-0

2-0

85.7

Rice

0-1

0-2

85.6

Tulane

0-1

0-2

73.4

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

1-1

110.9

Navy  

1-1

100.4

Army  

1-1

83.4

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Buffalo

0-0

1-1

97.1

Bowling Green

0-0

1-1

91.8

Temple

0-0

0-1

90.6

Akron

0-0

1-1

88.6

Ohio U

0-0

1-1

88.1

Kent St.

0-0

1-1

86.6

Miami (O)

0-0

0-2

73.3

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

0-0

1-1

102.2

Toledo

0-0

1-1

94.7

Western Michigan

0-0

0-2

89.7

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-2

89.3

Northern Illinois

0-0

1-1

88.2

Ball State

0-0

0-2

82.7

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

B Y U

0-0

2-0

115.6

T C U

0-0

1-0

112.7

Utah

0-0

2-0

107.2

Air Force

0-0

1-1

99.7

Colo. State

0-0

2-0

95.6

UNLV

0-0

1-1

93.3

S. D. State

0-0

1-1

90.9

Wyoming

0-0

1-1

88.5

New Mexico

0-0

0-2

79.2

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

0-0

2-0

128.1

California

0-0

2-0

123.4

Stanford

1-0

1-1

108.9

Arizona

0-0

2-0

108.9

Oregon St.

0-0

2-0

107.4

U C L A

0-0

2-0

106.2

Arizona St.

0-0

1-0

103.3

Oregon

0-0

1-1

103.2

Washington

0-0

1-1

99.0

Wash. St.

0-1

0-2

78.7

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

0-0

2-0

142.5

Georgia

1-0

1-1

111.8

Tennessee

0-0

1-1

107.3

South Carolina

0-1

1-1

105.0

Vanderbilt

0-1

1-1

104.7

Kentucky

0-0

1-0

102.4

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

2-0

122.6

Ole Miss

0-0

1-0

120.6

L S U

1-0

2-0

113.7

Auburn

1-0

2-0

108.2

Arkansas

0-0

1-0

107.9

Mississippi State

0-1

1-1

89.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

0-2

93.8

Arkansas State

0-0

1-1

89.9

Middle Tennessee

0-0

1-1

88.7

Florida International

0-0

0-1

88.0

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-2

87.5

Louisiana

0-0

2-0

85.8

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-1

82.2

North Texas

0-0

1-1

79.7

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-2

73.8

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

2-0

112.4

Utah State

0-0

0-1

96.2

Fresno State

0-0

1-1

96.8

Nevada

0-0

0-1

95.6

Louisiana Tech

0-0

0-2

91.5

San Jose State

0-0

0-2

89.9

Hawaii

0-0

2-0

89.0

Idaho

1-0

1-1

78.2

New Mexico State

0-1

1-1

73.3

 

Here is a list of this week’s games with both the PiRate and Mean ratings.  Please note that we at the PiRate Ratings don’t recommend you using these ratings when trying to determine how you will make your selections.  We offer that service for the ridiculously low price of $5 a week and deliver the picks to your e-mail at 1PM Eastern Time on Thursdays.  For more info on how to get our selections, please go to: www.piratings.webs.com.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 17  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Score

Mean

Georgia Tech MIAMI (FL)

0.3

35-35 ot

-4

   

 

 

 

Friday, September 18  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Score

Mean

Boise State FRESNO STATE

12.1

28-16

15

   

 

 

 

Saturday, September 19  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Score

Mean

ARMY Ball State

3.7

28-24

2

PURDUE Northern Illinois

16.5

41-24

10

MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan

18.4

35-17

25

PITTSBURGH Navy

14.6

42-27

12

SYRACUSE Northwestern

0.2

27-27 ot

-6

CLEMSON Boston College

5.8

34-28

4

PENN STATE Temple

29.8

37-7

27

NORTH CAROLINA East Carolina

15.5

37-21

12

WESTERN MICHIGAN Miami (O)

18.9

28-9

15

VANDERBILT Mississippi State

17.5

35-17

12

COLORADO Wyoming

8.1

35-27

3

IOWA Arizona

10.1

24-14

4

AKRON Indiana

2.9

20-17

6

KANSAS Duke

20.9

42-21

19

SOUTHERN MISS. Virginia

9.7

31-21

7

Utah OREGON

1.0

28-27

-2

Southern Cal WASHINGTON

26.1

38-12

29

UCLA Kansas State

15.1

27-12

12

VIRGINIA TECH Nebraska

9.8

31-21

4

NOTRE DAME Michigan State

12.5

37-24

7

Ohio State Toledo   (CLEVELAND)

18.5

33-14

21

AUBURN West Virginia

9.2

35-26

2

FLORIDA Tennessee

39.7

49-9

27

S m u WASHINGTON STATE

4.0

31-27

1

San Diego State IDAHO

10.2

30-20

3

COLORADO STATE Nevada

2.5

27-24

6

MARSHALL Bowling Green

4.3

28-24

-8

California MINNESOTA

18.5

38-19

11

Buffalo CENTRAL FLORIDA

5.5

27-21

0

OKLAHOMA STATE Rice

33.6

44-10

25

OKLAHOMA Tulsa

28.7

52-23

16

BAYLOR Connecticut

13.3

27-14

6

TEXAS A&M Utah State

4.3

24-20

12

KENTUCKY Louisville

10.2

34-24

14

Iowa State KENT STATE

0.6

24-23

-1

B Y U Florida State

6.8

38-31

12

Georgia ARKANSAS

0.4

27-27 ot

3

Air Force NEW MEXICO

18.0

42-24

12

U t e p NEW MEXICO STATE

14.3

31-17

10

TEXAS Texas Tech

20.8

45-24

10

U N L V Hawaii

7.3

31-24

5

STANFORD San Jose State

21.5

42-20

15

OREGON STATE Cincinnati

1.5

28-26

-1

RUTGERS Florida International

16.0

30-14

14

ALABAMA North Texas

47.4

47-0

35

MARYLAND Middle Tennessee

8.4

24-16

9

SOUTH CAROLINA Florida Atlantic

26.3

33-7

19

TROY U a b

7.0

28-21

7

L S U Louisiana Lafayette

31.4

38-7

23

ARIZONA STATE Louisiana Monroe

20.3

27-7

20

September 8, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads for College Football–September 10-12, 2009

Week 2—September 10-12, 2009

 

Week one sure brought excitement and surprises to the Football Bowl Subdivision.  With Sam Bradford’s injury and Oklahoma’s loss, the door is open for the Ohio State-Southern Cal winner to move into the number two position.

 

Where does Brigham Young fit into the equation?  We aren’t sure they are the best team in their conference, so the Mountain West is gaining power.  TCU begins play this week, and Utah is riding the nation’s longest winning streak.  Air Force, Colorado State, and UNLV won impressively.

 

The ACC and Big 10 took major hits in week one, and either could fall below the MWC with a few more bad weeks.  Miami’s win over Florida State hurts the ACC, because the Hurricanes have a very difficult schedule, whereas the Seminoles might have had a chance to get on a roll and even run the table with their schedule.

 

NCAA Top 25 For September 8. 2009

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

142.4

1

0

2

Texas

133.3

1

0

3

Oklahoma

129.7

0

1

4

Southern Cal

127.2

1

0

5

Alabama

122.8

1

0

6

California

122.5

1

0

7

Ole Miss

120.6

1

0

8

Okla. St.

119.9

1

0

9

Penn St.

118.5

1

0

10

Va. Tech

115.7

0

1

11

Florida St.

114.2

0

1

12

Georgia Tech

114.1

1

0

13

L S U

113.6

1

0

14

N. Carolina

113.4

1

0

15

Georgia 

113.2

0

1

16

Iowa

112.2

1

0

17

Ohio St.

111.6

1

0

18

Texas Tech

111.6

1

0

19

Notre Dame

111.5

1

0

20

Pittsburgh

111.5

1

0

21

Boise St.

111.3

1

0

22

Miami (Fla.)

110.8

1

0

23

T C U

110.7

0

0

24

B Y U

110.5

1

0

25

Kansas

110.5

1

0

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-1

0-1

114.2

Clemson

0-0

1-0

112.0

Boston College

0-0

1-0

109.8

North Carolina State

0-0

0-1

106.4

Wake Forest

0-0

0-1

104.8

Maryland

0-0

0-1

95.3

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-1

115.7

Georgia Tech

0-0

1-0

114.1

North Carolina

0-0

1-0

113.4

Miami-FL

1-0

1-0

110.8

Virginia

0-0

0-1

96.6

Duke

0-0

0-1

95.2

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

0-0

1-0

111.5

Cincinnati

1-0

1-0

109.7

South Florida

0-0

1-0

105.6

West Virginia

0-0

1-0

100.9

Connecticut

0-0

1-0

100.5

Rutgers

0-1

0-1

100.1

Louisville

0-0

1-0

94.2

Syracuse

0-0

0-1

93.4

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Penn State

0-0

1-0

118.5

Iowa

0-0

1-0

112.2

Ohio State

0-0

1-0

111.6

Michigan State

0-0

1-0

104.1

Michigan

0-0

1-0

104.1

Minnesota

0-0

1-0

100.5

Illinois

0-0

0-1

100.3

Wisconsin

0-0

1-0

100.1

Purdue

0-0

1-0

99.4

Northwestern

0-0

1-0

97.8

Indiana

0-0

1-0

87.5

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

1-0

111.0

Kansas

0-0

1-0

110.5

Missouri

0-0

1-0

109.1

Colorado

0-0

0-1

98.5

Kansas State

0-0

1-0

96.4

Iowa State

0-0

1-0

92.3

 

 

 

 
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Texas

0-0

1-0

133.3

Oklahoma

0-0

0-1

129.7

Oklahoma State

0-0

1-0

119.9

Texas Tech

0-0

1-0

111.6

Baylor

0-0

1-0

109.9

Texas A&M

0-0

1-0

97.0

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

East Carolina

0-0

1-0

102.3

Southern Mississippi

0-0

1-0

101.5

Marshall

0-0

1-0

95.3

Memphis

0-0

0-1

90.4

Central Florida

0-0

1-0

87.5

U A B

1-0

1-0

90.3

 

 

 

 
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

0-0

1-0

101.4

Tulsa

1-0

1-0

99.4

U T E P

0-0

0-1

92.4

Rice

0-1

0-1

89.4

S M U

0-0

1-0

84.2

Tulane

0-1

0-1

79.6

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

1-0

111.5

Navy  

0-1

98.9

Army  

1-0

84.3

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Buffalo

0-0

1-0

97.7

Temple

0-0

0-1

90.6

Bowling Green

0-0

1-0

90.3

Ohio U

0-0

0-1

89.0

Akron

0-0

0-1

88.2

Kent St.

0-0

1-0

86.6

Miami (O)

0-0

0-1

74.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

0-0

0-1

99.5

Western Michigan

0-0

0-1

90.4

Toledo

0-0

0-1

89.8

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-1

87.8

Northern Illinois

0-0

0-1

87.8

Ball State

0-0

0-1

84.8

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

0-0

110.7

B Y U

0-0

1-0

110.5

Utah

0-0

1-0

108.0

Air Force

0-0

1-0

99.9

Colo. State

0-0

1-0

95.9

UNLV

0-0

1-0

91.5

S. D. State

0-0

0-1

90.7

Wyoming

0-0

1-0

87.7

New Mexico

0-0

0-1

84.9

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

0-0

1-0

127.2

California

0-0

1-0

122.5

Stanford

1-0

1-0

109.4

Arizona

0-0

1-0

109.2

Oregon St.

0-0

1-0

108.8

Oregon

0-0

0-1

105.0

U C L A

0-0

1-0

104.7

Arizona St.

0-0

1-0

103.3

Washington

0-0

0-1

100.2

Wash. St.

0-1

0-1

83.4

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

0-0

1-0

142.4

Georgia

0-0

0-1

113.2

Tennessee

0-0

1-0

108.4

Vanderbilt

0-0

1-0

104.8

South Carolina

0-0

1-0

103.7

Kentucky

0-0

1-0

102.4

 

 

 

 
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

1-0

122.8

Ole Miss

0-0

1-0

120.6

L S U

0-0

1-0

113.6

Arkansas

0-0

1-0

107.9

Auburn

0-0

1-0

106.7

Mississippi State

0-0

1-0

91.3

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

0-1

93.8

Arkansas State

0-0

1-0

90.2

Florida International

0-0

0-0

87.6

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-1

87.3

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-1

85.9

Louisiana

0-0

1-0

84.7

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-1

82.2

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-1

73.9

North Texas

0-0

1-0

78.9

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

1-0

111.3

Utah State

0-0

0-1

96.2

Fresno State

0-0

1-0

96.2

Nevada

0-0

0-1

95.6

Louisiana Tech

0-0

0-1

92.9

San Jose State

0-0

0-1

89.2

Hawaii

0-0

1-0

84.5

Idaho

1-0

1-0

77.1

New Mexico State

0-1

0-1

74.6

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 10  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

GEORGIA TECH Clemson

4.6

28-23

0.8

   

 

 

 

Friday, September 11  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

Colorado TOLEDO

5.7

26-20

4.5

   

 

 

 

Saturday, September 12  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

PENN STATE Syracuse

28.4

35-7

28.9

North Carolina CONNECTICUT

9.7

24-14

0.4

NORTHWESTERN Eastern Michigan

13.0

37-24

23.7

Western Michigan INDIANA

0.4

20-20 ot

0.5

MICHIGAN STATE Central Michigan

8.1

28-20

14.2

WAKE FOREST Stanford

0.4

28-28

2.4

WISCONSIN Fresno State

8.4

31-23

9.3

Duke ARMY

8.1

35-27

0.6

Pittsburgh BUFFALO

11.5

28-16

9.6

Iowa IOWA STATE

17.4

24-7

13.3

FLORIDA Troy

52.6

56-3

34.0

VIRGINIA TECH Marshall

23.9

34-10

21.8

NEBRASKA Arkansas State

25.3

35-10

23.8

BOSTON COLLEGE Kent State

27.2

34-7

22.7

Texas WYOMING

42.6

49-6

28.0

OKLAHOMA STATE Houston

21.5

44-22

15.5

T c u VIRGINIA

10.6

21-10

13.4

B y u TULANE

27.4

37-10

25.5

Notre Dame MICHIGAN

3.6

28-24

1.8

WASHINGTON Idaho

26.1

35-9

13.4

WEST VIRGINIA East Carolina

2.4

23-21

10.3

NAVY Louisiana Tech

9.0

35-26

15.2

U A B S m u

8.6

40-31

14.5

TENNESSEE U c l a

8.2

28-20

11.1

ALABAMA Florida Int’l

40.7

41-0

32.9

L S U Vanderbilt

13.3

27-14

10.0

GEORGIA South Carolina

12.0

19-7

7.3

AUBURN Mississippi State

18.9

31-12

13.7

MINNESOTA Air Force

4.4

31-27

-1.5

MISSOURI Bowling Green

22.8

40-17

18.2

Ohio U NORTH TEXAS

7.1

27-20

2.6

WASHINGTON STATE Hawaii

2.9

31-28

-4.8

Kansas State LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

8.7

28-19

4.3

Memphis MIDDLE TENNESSEE

2.0

30-28

-2.5

SOUTHERN MISS. Central Florida

17.5

42-24

13.4

TEXAS TECH Rice

25.7

44-18

22.7

Kansas U T E P

15.1

35-20

14.9

South Florida WESTERN KENTUCKY

29.7

37-7

25.5

Southern Cal OHIO STATE

10.8

35-24

5.9

BOISE STATE Miami (O)

42.6

52-9

40.7

Tulsa NEW MEXICO

12.2

33-21

12.3

OREGON Purdue

10.1

34-24

15.6

Utah SAN JOSE ST.

16.0

30-14

18.9

Oregon State U N L V

14.3

31-17

12.6

September 3, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads for College Football–September 3-7, 2009

Week 1—September 3-7, 2009

 

It seems like just yesterday that Florida was beating Oklahoma for the national championship.  The season begins anew tonight, and the PiRate Ratings are here.

 

There have been a few changes here this season.  First, there are now five of us here, so we will have time to devote to both college and pro this year.

 

This year, we will be offering very affordable services through our webpage at www.piratings.webs.com.  For just $5 each week, we will e-mail you our picks by Noon Eastern Time Thursday.  What you do with them is your choice, and we use these picks only in contests.

 

Do not use the PiRate Ratings themselves as a guide to your selections.  We don’t do this, because we look at additional information when we make our choices.  The PiRate and Mean Ratings are general spreads—what we would expect if the teams’ played 100 times.  We need to know about just the one game actually being played.

 

Without further adieu, let’s get on with the show.

 

NCAA Top 25 For Preseason

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

142

0

0

2

Oklahoma

136

0

0

3

Texas

135

0

0

4

Southern Cal

125

0

0

5

Ole Miss

120

0

0

6

Alabama

120

0

0

7

California

120

0

0

8

Okla. St.

118

0

0

9

Va. Tech

117

0

0

10

Penn St.

116

0

0

11

Florida St.

116

0

0

12

Georgia Tech

115

0

0

13

Georgia 

114

0

0

14

L S U

114

0

0

15

Iowa

114

0

0

16

N. Carolina

113

0

0

17

Ohio St.

113

0

0

18

Clemson

113

0

0

19

Pittsburgh

112

0

0

20

Texas Tech

112

0

0

21

T C U

111

0

0

22

Kansas

110

0

0

23

Boise St.

109

0

0

24

Oregon St.

109

0

0

25

Boston Coll.

109

0

0

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-0

0-0

115.8

Clemson

0-0

0-0

112.7

Boston College

0-0

0-0

109.1

North Carolina State

0-0

0-0

108.4

Wake Forest

0-0

0-0

106.1

Maryland

0-0

0-0

97.6

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

117.2

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

114.7

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

113.4

Miami-FL

0-0

0-0

108.4

Virginia

0-0

0-0

99.1

Duke

0-0

0-0

96.5

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

112.0

Rutgers

0-0

0-0

106.3

South Florida

0-0

0-0

104.9

Cincinnati

0-0

0-0

102.9

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

101.5

Connecticut

0-0

0-0

100.0

Louisville

0-0

0-0

95.0

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

93.3

 

Big Ten

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Penn State

0-0

0-0

116.3

Iowa

0-0

0-0

113.5

Ohio State

0-0

0-0

113.1

Illinois

0-0

0-0

106.1

Michigan State

0-0

0-0

103.4

Michigan

0-0

0-0

102.3

Wisconsin

0-0

0-0

101.3

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

100.5

Purdue

0-0

0-0

99.1

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

97.4

Indiana

0-0

0-0

89.5

 

Big 12

North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Kansas

0-0

0-0

110.4

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

108.5

Missouri

0-0

0-0

104.7

Colorado

0-0

0-0

102.0

Kansas State

0-0

0-0

97.1

Iowa State

0-0

0-0

92.0

 

 

 

 
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

135.7

Texas

0-0

0-0

135.5

Oklahoma State

0-0

0-0

118.4

Texas Tech

0-0

0-0

111.8

Baylor

0-0

0-0

108.7

Texas A&M

0-0

0-0

94.3

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

102.2

Southern Mississippi

0-0

0-0

101.2

Marshall

0-0

0-0

95.8

Memphis

0-0

0-0

90.1

Central Florida

0-0

0-0

89.2

U A B

0-0

0-0

87.8

 

 

 

 
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

0-0

0-0

100.6

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

97.1

U T E P

0-0

0-0

94.2

Rice

0-0

0-0

92.1

S M U

0-0

0-0

86.4

Tulane

0-0

0-0

79.8

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

0-0

108.1

Navy  

0-0

94.7

Army  

0-0

79.1

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Buffalo

0-0

0-0

95.0

Temple

0-0

0-0

91.6

Ohio U

0-0

0-0

89.8

Akron

0-0

0-0

89.2

Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

87.3

Kent St.

0-0

0-0

86.1

Miami (O)

0-0

0-0

76.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

99.8

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

92.6

Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

92.0

Toledo

0-0

0-0

90.4

Ball State

0-0

0-0

89.8

Northern Illinois

0-0

0-0

88.9

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

0-0

110.7

Utah

0-0

0-0

107.8

B Y U

0-0

0-0

104.5

Air Force

0-0

0-0

99.3

Colo. State

0-0

0-0

92.1

S. D. State

0-0

0-0

91.0

UNLV

0-0

0-0

90.9

New Mexico

0-0

0-0

88.3

Wyoming

0-0

0-0

88.0

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Cal

0-0

0-0

124.8

California

0-0

0-0

119.8

Oregon St.

0-0

0-0

109.4

Arizona

0-0

0-0

108.9

Stanford

0-0

0-0

108.7

Oregon

0-0

0-0

107.7

U C L A

0-0

0-0

104.4

Arizona St.

0-0

0-0

102.8

Washington

0-0

0-0

99.0

Wash. St.

0-0

0-0

84.1

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida

0-0

0-0

142.4

Georgia

0-0

0-0

114.4

Tennessee

0-0

0-0

105.7

Vanderbilt

0-0

0-0

104.2

South Carolina

0-0

0-0

103.2

Kentucky

0-0

0-0

99.7

 

 

 

 
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Ole Miss

0-0

0-0

120.4

Alabama

0-0

0-0

120.3

L S U

0-0

0-0

114.0

Arkansas

0-0

0-0

107.7

Auburn

0-0

0-0

105.2

Mississippi State

0-0

0-0

90.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

0-0

96.8

Arkansas State

0-0

0-0

90.1

Florida International

0-0

0-0

87.6

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-0

85.3

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-0

84.5

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-0

84.5

Louisiana

0-0

0-0

84.0

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

76.6

North Texas

0-0

0-0

73.9

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

0-0

109.5

Nevada

0-0

0-0

97.8

Utah State

0-0

0-0

96.4

Fresno State

0-0

0-0

95.1

Louisiana Tech

0-0

0-0

94.4

San Jose State

0-0

0-0

91.7

Hawaii

0-0

0-0

85.7

New Mexico State

0-0

0-0

77.8

Idaho

0-0

0-0

74.5

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 3  

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
NORTH CAROLINA ST. South Carolina

9

28-19

4

 
UTAH Utah State

13

27-14

27

 
BOISE STATE Oregon

6

34-28

3

 
Troy BOWLING GREEN

7

27-20

4

 
BALL STATE North Texas

19

31-12

22

 
   

 

 

 

 
Friday, September 4  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
Tulsa TULANE

15

42-27

21

 
   

 

 

 

 
Saturday, September 5  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
OHIO STATE Navy

24

34-10

21

 
PENN STATE Akron

32

35-3

29

 
MICHIGAN Western Michigan

14

34-20

9

 
Connecticut OHIO U

8

21-13

9

 
NOTRE DAME Nevada

16

40-24

10

 
OKLAHOMA STATE Georgia

9

35-26

2

 
Kentucky Miami (O) (@ Cincinnati)

23

35-12

20

 
OKLAHOMA Brigham Young

37

58-21

20

 
Illinois (@ St. Louis) Missouri

1

24-23

-4

 
Rice U A B

2

28-26

4

 
WAKE FOREST Baylor

0

27-27

7

 
Minnesota SYRACUSE

4

28-24

6

 
EASTERN MICHIGAN Army

16

33-17

6

 
WISCONSIN Northern Illinois

15

35-20

15

 
PURDUE Toledo

12

24-12

13

 
Stanford WASHINGTON STATE

22

38-16

14

 
AUBURN Louisiana Tech

15

24-9

11

 
TEXAS A&M New Mexico

10

31-21

8

 
Alabama (@ Atlanta) Virginia Tech

3

17-14

2

 
NEW MEXICO STATE Idaho

6

27-21

6

 
U T E P Buffalo

4

35-31

4

 
CALIFORNIA Maryland

28

42-14

16

 
SOUTHERN CAL San Jose State

37

50-13

38

 
ARIZONA Central Michigan

14

35-21

15

 
U C L A San Diego State

16

35-19

18

 
L s u WASHINGTON

11

28-17

15

 
NEBRASKA Florida Atlantic

30

37-7

20

 
CLEMSON Middle Tennessee

32

42-10

21

 
TEXAS Louisiana-Monroe

55

55-0

39

 
TENNESSEE Western Kentucky

34

34-0

26

 
           
Sunday, September 6  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
Ole Miss MEMPHIS

29

42-13

17

 
COLORADO Colorado State

11

35-24

8

 
   

 

 

 

 
Monday, September 7  

 

 

 

 
Favorite Underdog

Spread

Score

Mean

 
RUTGERS Cincinnati

7

28-21

7

 
FLORIDA STATE Miami-Fl

9

21-12

8

 
                 

 

Coming next week in addition to the college ratings, we debut the NFL ratings for 2009.  Pittsburgh begins defense of their Super Bowl title with a Thursday night game against Tennessee.

September 2, 2009

2009 Big 10 Preview

2009 Big 10 Conference Preview

A PiRate Look

We’ve saved the best for last.  Okay, it’s the best for us, because four of us are Big 10 guys.  Let us take care of something before we go on.  Two of us are University of Wisconsin alums.  One of us is University of Minnesota alum, and our founder is an adopted Wisconsinite married to a former resident of Madison (and Minneapolis).  He’s also a life-long follower of Ohio State, partially because of legendary sports talk show host Pete Franklin, who mentored him during his time in sports radio, and partially because his grade school PE touch football team called itself Ohio State (read how the PiRates started for an explanation).

While the Big 10 is no better than the fourth or fifth best league in college football this year, it could very well be first in excitement.  No team, not even the Buckeyes, is dominant enough to run away with the conference title.  Five teams have a legitimate shot at contending for the Rose Bowl bid.  Four other teams could become bowl eligible.  Even the last place team should be exciting to watch thanks to a change in offensive philosophy. 

Here are the preseason PiRate ratings for the league.  The ratings have been rounded to the nearest whole number even though we calculate them to two decimal places.  Thus, when you see multiple teams with the same rating, they are not actually exactly even.  To understand what the rating means, it is set so that 100 is average.  Thus, a rating of 90 means the team is 10 points weaker than the average team in the FBS.  The average of all 120 FBS teams should round to 100 if the math has been successfully calculated.

For those who have not followed the PiRate Ratings before and wonder about the home field advantage, we do not assign set in stone advantages.  These are assigned on a game-by-game basis.  For instance, if Indiana was 0-4 and hosting a 4-0 Kentucky team, it would be expected that those devoted Blue Mist fans would pack Memorial Stadium and make it a home game for the Wildcats.  UK might actually receive a point advantage.  Now, if that same Indiana team instead is 4-0 and hosting San Diego State a week after SDSU played at Hawaii and lost in four overtimes, IU would get as much as 10 points in home field advantage.  The PiRates think it’s ridiculous to issue a blank home field advantage for all teams or even assign a range of set home field advantages.

 

Big 10 Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

   

 

Prediction *

  Team

PiRate

Big 10

Overall

  Penn State

116

6-2

10-2

  Iowa

114

5-3

9-3

  Ohio State

113

7-1

11-1

  Illinois

106

6-2

10-2

  Michigan State

103

6-2

9-3

  Michigan

102

2-6

5-7

  Wisconsin

101

3-5

7-5

  Minnesota

101

4-4

7-5

  Purdue

99

2-6

4-8

  Northwestern

97

3-5

7-5

  Indiana

89

0-8

2-10

   

 

 

 

 

*  Predictions not based on PiRate Rating but

 

on expected changes to rating during the year

 

This preview will be a little different than the rest.  We will list each team’s strengths and weaknesses as we see them

Penn State

Strengths:

Running Back—Evan Royster rushed for 1,236 yards (6.5 avg) and 12 TDs; backup Staphfon Green has sub 4.3 40 speed

Quarterback—Daryll Clark is the perfect fit for this offense.  He passed for 2,592 yards and 19 touchdowns and rushed for 10 TDs as well.

Linebacker—Duh, this is Linebacker U.  Navorro Bowman led with 106 tackles, 16 ½ behind the line, and broke up five passes.  Sean Lee returns after missing 2008.  In 2007, he had 138 tackles.

Weaknesses:

Receiver—Gone are the top three receivers from 2008 (132 receptions 1,932 yds/17 TDs), representing 59% of the catches, 61% of the yards, and 71% of the touchdowns.

Offensive Line—Three new starters must have it down pat by game four, when PSU takes on Iowa.  Guard Lou Eliades and tackle DeOn’tae Pannell both have the potential to be stars, so this unit could prove to be okay.  Tackle Dennis Landolt is already a star.

Secondary—The Nittany Lions were wiped out by graduation here.  Four new starters make it the weakest unit on the team. 

Outlook—An easy out-of-conference slate guarantees four wins.  Penn State hosts Ohio State, but the visiting team has won the last two years.  A season finale at Michigan State could have the Rose Bowl trip on the line.  We think they have a few too many holes to fill but enough talent to finish in the top four in the conference.

Iowa

Strengths:

Defense—The entire defensive side, with the exception of tackle, will be tough.  The Hawkeyes gave up 13 points and 291 yards per game last year, and there’s no reason to think they won’t repeat that performance this year.  The back seven has no peer in the Big 10.  The Hawkeyes could intercept 25 passes.  Safety Tyler Sash and linebacker Pat Angerer both intercepted five passes in 2008, and Amari Spievey picked off four. 

Quarterback—Ricky Stanzi isn’t going to make the All-Big 10 Team, but he flies just under the radar.  He should top 2,000 yards passing and toss 15-20 touchdown passes.

Weaknesses:

Offensive Line—This isn’t a weakness per se; it’s a total shuffling of the roster.  Only tackle Bryan Bulaga started last year and will start this year.  The depth chart here has been scrambled, with two former starters losing their jobs.  If former starter Dace Richardson, who missed most of the last two seasons, can return to form, this will actually become a fairly good unit.

Running Back—The Hawkeyes cannot replace Shone Greene (1,850 yards/6.0 avg/20 TDs).  New starter Paki O’Meara ran the ball 21 times for 67 yards last year.

Defensive Tackle—Karl Klug could develop into a fine player, and Christian Ballard is capable of playing anywhere on the line, but neither of them is close in talent to departed stars Matt Kroul and Mitch King.

Outlook—Iowa can stop just about any offense in the league, and they should hold their four non-conference opponents (Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Arizona, and Arkansas State) to about 35 total points.  Inside the Big 10, tough games at Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State will prevent them from winning the title.  Nine wins and a eighth bowl bid in the last nine years is very reachable.

Ohio State

Strengths:

Quarterback—Terrelle Pryor is just a sophomore, but he’s the co-number one QB in this league.  Look for him to pass for 2,250-2,500 yards and rush for close to 1,000, accounting for 25 touchdowns.

Defensive Line—Three starters return from a unit that surrendered 110 rushing yards per game and provided a strong pass rush.  End Thaddeus Gibson recorded five sacks and four other TFLs.

Safety—Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell form the best safety tandem in the league.  Both are NFL prospects.

Weaknesses:

Cornerback—Malcolm Jenkins will give quarterbacks in the NFC South headaches this year, and he cannot be replaced.  Teams refused to pass the ball in his direction as much as possible, yet he still intercepted three passes and broke up nine others.

Receiver—The Buckeyes lost the two Brians, Robiskie and Hartline, both of whom were drafted.  The replacements will eventually be quite proficient, but it will take a few games.  The Southern Cal game comes up in week two.

Running Back—Beanie Wells and his 1,197 yards rushing are gone.  Pryor will lead the Buckeyes in rushing this year, but he needs somebody to take the heat off him occasionally.  Sophomore Dan Herron could subsidize the running of Pryor and allow OSU to rush for the same amount of yards this year (192 per game in ’08).

Linebacker—Ohio State lost James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, and the replacements are lightly experienced.  Lone returnee Ross Homan could make the All-Big 10 1st Team.

Outlook—Ohio State’s backups from one year usually become starters the next year and perform admirably, so weaknesses for them are not the same as weaknesses for other teams.  The key to the season comes in week two.  If they beat Southern Cal, it will be a shot in the arm, and the Buckeyes could run the table.  If they lose this game, they will have a hard time playing their best all season, knowing they have little chance of going to the second Pasadena bowl.  We think they have a better than 50-50 shot of winning. The game at Penn State may not go their way, and the Buckeyes may have to settle for the first Pasadena bowl.

Illinois

Strengths:

Quarterback—Juice Williams is the other co-number one QB in the league.  He won’t be confused for Tebow, Bradford, or McCoy, but he will make Illinois go.  He passed for 3,173 yards and 22 touchdowns last year, but he needs to cut back on interceptions.  He also led the Illini with 719 rushing, and he is capable of topping 1,000.  Backup Eddie McGee has talent and can move the team as well.

Receiver—It starts with Arrelious Benn, who finished second in the league with 67 receptions and 1,055 yards.  Tight end Mike Hoomanawanui is a nightmare on enemy safeties at 6’5 and 270.  Look for him to catch 30-40 passes and plough his way for a few extra yards after every catch except for the diving receptions.  Jeff Cumberland is a serious threat to go all the way with every catch he makes.

Running Back—The offensive skill positions are the best in the Big 10 thanks to the able running abilities of Daniel Dufrene, Jason Ford, and Mikel Leshoure.  The trio will split reps and rush for about 1,200 yards this year.  All three are threats as receivers as well.

Weaknesses:

The Defensive Front Seven—The Illini gave up 153 yards rushing and 4.0 yards per rush.  Only two of the front seven starters return this year, and this will be a big liability.  Expected starting end Jerry Brown was declared academically ineligible and won’t play this year.

Outlook—The lack of stars on the defensive side will necessitate the Illini holding onto the ball longer this season.  New offensive coordinator Mike Schulz was noted for putting together TCU offenses that held onto the ball for long, time consuming drives. 

What Schulz cannot change is the schedule.  After having an off week September 19, the Illini must play at Ohio State, at home against Penn State and at home against Michigan State.  That is a tough three game stretch, and very few teams other than the top four in the nation can beat these three powers back-to-back-to-back.  Illinois should enjoy a return to a New Year’s Day Bowl, and if  more than one team can beat Ohio State, Coach Ron Zook could gain a share of the Big 10 title.

Michigan State

Strengths:

Receiver—All the receivers who caught more than five passes return this year.  Mark Dell, Charlie Gantt, and Blair White may not catch 50 passes each, but if they continue to average an aggregate 17 yards per catch, they are going to make things difficult for defenses, as the running game gets more room to operate.

Defensive Front Seven—The linebacker trio is up there with Penn State and Iowa, and the front four is above average.  End Trevor Anderson is a QB’s nightmare.  He could post double digit sacks after recording eight a year ago.  Offenses will not be able to key on him, because linebackers Eric Gordon, Greg Jones, and Brandon Denson can shoot through and drop a passer or take a running back down for a loss.

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—The loss of Brian Hoyer is harder to overcome than first thought.  None of the possible replacements has distinguished himself, and the Spartans will open the season with a possible platoon of Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol, two sophomores with limited experience.  Look for Coach Mark Dantonio to run more, pass less, and pass deeper when the Spartans do throw it.

Running Back—Javon Ringer was one of the most underrated running backs in the NCAA.  He led the Big 10 with 1,637 yards and 22 touchdowns last year.  Caulton Ray, a redshirt freshman will get first crack at filling those shoes.  Larry Caper and Edwin Baker will see plenty of action.  The three will get 400 carries and hope to replace the lost yardage as a trio.

Outlook—The Spartans had a chance at the end of the year to get a piece of the Big 10 title, but Penn State thrashed them 49-18.  MSU doesn’t have enough offensive talent to score enough points to beat the better offensive teams, and their defense won’t be strong enough to hold those teams’ score down low enough to win 17-14.  The Spartans play at Notre Dame, and that could be an extra loss on their schedule.  We expect them to get their revenge on Penn State this year and prevent the Lions from winning the Big 10.  As for the MSU record, even with the offensive woes, we think they will win as many as last year.

Michigan

Strengths:

Running Back—Brandon Minor is still around, and when healthy, he is capable of piling up good yardage.  A big year could move him onto the draft boards of some teams.  Quarterback Tate Forcier will be a much better runner than Steven Threet was last year.  Nick Sheridan is another option, but Coach Rich Rodriguez would love Forcier to take the reins and not give them up.

Offensive Line—All five starters return, and with a year of experience in this offense, the rushing numbers should jump by as much as 100 yards.  Guard Stephen Schilling has all-conference potential.

Defensive Front Seven—Linebackers Obi Ezeh, Jonas Mouton, and Stevie Brown make this yet another excellent group in this league.  End Brandon Graham is the best at his position in the Big 10 (10 sacks and 10 more TFLs!)

Punter—Zoltan Mesko is a Ray Guy Award contender.  He averaged 43 yards per punt with a net of 39.3.  His punts have great hang time, and he can place them inside the 20 any time he’s punting from beyond his 35 yard line.

Weaknesses:

Secondary—Three 2008 starters are gone, and the new starters didn’t see much playing time last year.  Expect major problems when the Wolverines play Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State, Illinois, and Ohio State.

Team Morale—We were ready to pick Michigan as a surprise contender for eight wins and a bowl until the news came out about players going to the Detroit Free Press to accuse Rodriguez of making them practice more hours than the NCAA allows.  We think there is a concerted effort from within the booster community to send Rodriguez on his way, and we expect more bad news to emerge this year.

Outlook—It looks like two years could be all for Rich Rodriguez.  He cannot coach with this lack of respect coming from within the ranks.  Rodriguez will get another chance somewhere else if this is his final year in Ann Arbor.  We say 5-7 is the best this team can do.

Wisconsin

Strengths:

Running Back—P. J. Hill is gone, but Zach Brown and John Clay are back.  The Badger running game should continue to grind out 200-225 yards per game.

Tight  End—Wisconsin usually uses two tight ends, and Mickey Turner and Garrett Graham are big and sure-handed.  Graham led the Badgers with 40 receptions and 540 yards.  He could top 50 this year, while Turner should match graduated starter Travis Beckham yard-for-yard.

Secondary—Three starters return to a unit that gave up just 52.5% completions and 196 yards per game.  Cornerback Niles Brinkley intercepted four passes and knocked away nine more, and yet he was beaten out in August practice. 

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer didn’t remind anybody of Aaron Rodgers, as they combined for just 54% completions and a TD/INT ratio of 11/10.  Neither had much running ability, and they were sacked 29 times.  Scott Tolzein has beaten out Sherer (Evridge graduated), and he’s a little more mobile. 

Defensive Front Seven—Wisconsin has usually been strong up front on defense.  This year, only two of the seven starters return, and the new starters have little game experience.  Look for opponents to rush for 150-180 yards per game against the rebuilt run defense, and look for quarterbacks to have more time to pass.  UW will give up 28-33 points per game.

Outlook– Coach Bret Bielema could be on the hot seat if Wisconsin continues to slide the wrong way.  Since taking over for Barry Alvarez, UW has won 12, nine, and seven games.  That number better move the other way this year.  An easy non-conference slate should produce four wins, but we see the Badgers repeating their 3-5 league record for a repeat of 2008.  That will place Bielema on a very hot seat for the 2010 season.

Minnesota

Strengths:

Receiver—Yes, we are talking about Minnesota being strong at the wide out position.  Eric Decker is the best receiver ever to wear the Big M.  Last year, he led the Big 10 with 84 receptions and 1,074 yards, scoring seven times.  He missed some time with injuries, or else he might have caught 100 passes.  Brandon Green and tight end Nick Tow-Arnett give UM three dangerous weapon.  Tow-Arnett grabbed just 10 passes last year, but he averaged 21.1 yards per catch.

Quarterback—Adam Weber had a Bryan Cupito-like season last year.  He passed for 2,761 yards and 15 touchdowns at a 62.2% completion rate.  He showed an ability to run when called on to do so.  If he improves as much this year as last, he could top 3,000 yards.

Offensive Line—A combination of four returning starters plus a new star-in-the-making mean the Gophers are going to be strong in the trenches.  Coach Tim Brewster would like to bring back the power running game enjoyed just four years ago in the Lawrence Maroney days.

Weaknesses:

Running Back—Duane Bennett, DeLeon Easkridge, and a host of others combined to run for just 104 yards per game (34 sacks skewed those numbers a bit).  Bennett showed the most promise for turning into a consistent runner, and he has become the starter.

Defensive Back—Minnesota is not ready to challenge for conference honors because their pass defense isn’t strong enough.  After surrendering 240 yards per game, there should be some improvement this year.  It would have been better had safety Tramaine Brock been able to remain academically eligible.  Kyle Theret  and Marcus Sherels make up half of a good secondary, but they cannot cover two zones at once.

Outlook—The most exciting thing about Minnesota football in 2009 is their brand new outdoor, on-campus stadium.  We’ve watched its construction adjacent to Williams Arena, and it is one beautiful work of architecture.  It’s light years better than old Memorial Stadium (The Brick House), and much more student friendly and personable than the Metrodome.  If you get a chance to see TCF Bank Stadium, don’t pass it up.

As for the Gophers, a better running game to compliment an outstanding passing game should allow UM to score 28 to 33 points per game and gain around 400 yards per game.  Unfortunately, the Gophers will give up 28 points per game as well.  The schedule has one tough non-conference game (Cal) and one semi-touch non-conference game (Air Force).  The Gophers should match last year’s seven-win total.

Purdue

Strengths:

Defensive Back Seven—Five of seven starters return to these two units, led by free safety Torri Williams (83 tackles, 2 int., 6 PBU) and cornerback David Pender (12 PBU).  Linebackers Chris Carlino and Joe Holland have all-conference potential

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—Is it true that this is a weakness at Purdue?  With the loss of Curtis Painter and backup Justin Siller’s dismissal, it leaves inexperienced senior Joey Elliott to take control of the offense.  There will be a major drop-off for first year coach Danny Hope.  The Boilermakers averaged 183 yards per game through the air last year, which was the lowest this century.  It will be the second lowest after this season concludes.

Running Back—1,131-yard rusher Kory Sheets and his 16 touchdowns scored are history.  Replacement Ralph Bolden rushed for 28 yards on 16 attempts.  Expect a minor decrease only, because PU just rushed for 125 yards per game last year.

Receiver—To complete the troika of skill positions, the Boilermakers suffered heavy losses at receiver.  The top two pass catchers, Desmond Tardy and Greg Orton, are gone after grabbing 136 passes for 1,546 yards and 10 TDs.  This year’s starters combined for 60 receptions and 710 yards.

Outlook—Purdue opens the season playing Toledo at home and Oregon on the road.   The next two games are at home against Northern Illinois and at Notre Dame.  If they don’t win two of those four games, they may lose double digit games for the first time since 1993.  If they split those first four, then they could win two or three more times.  We’ll call it a repeat of last year—4-8.

Northwestern

Strengths:

Defensive Line—Coach Pat Fitzgerald has slowly started to turn Northwestern into a defense before offense team, much like the way NU played when he was starring for Coach Gary Barnett.  He’s built a strong front four with end Corey Wootton leading the way.  Wootton had 10 sacks and six other tackles behind the line and made 1st Team All-Big 10.  Starting at the other end, Vince Browne recorded four sacks off the bench last year.  Tackle Corbin Bryant proved to be a reliable run stopper.

Defensive Backs—All four starters return from last year, and all of them could make one of the all-conference teams.  Safety Brad Phillips led NU with 109 tackles with six going for losses; he picked off three passes and knocked away six others.  His counterpart at the other safety, Brendan Smith, finished third on the team with 82 tackles.  Cornerbacks Sherrick McManis and Jordan Mabin teamed for five interceptions and 17 passed knocked away.  Northwestern gave up 214 passing yards per game, and that number could go down.

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—C. J. Bacher has graduated, and senior Mike Kafka takes over.  Kafka is a much better runner than Bacher, but he isn’t as competent passing the ball. 

Running Back—Tyrell Sutton rushed for 890 yards in eight games of action, and backup Stephen Simmons started in his place.  NU averaged just 80 rushing yards per game in Simmons’ starts, and more than 175 yards per game when Sutton played.  Simmons takes over the position full time this year after gaining just 2.9 yards per carry.  Expect the Wildcats to rely more on Kafka than any of the running backs.

Wide Receiver—Another reason Northwestern’s offense will stagnate this year is a weak receiving unit.  The top three receivers (top four when you count Sutton’s passes caught from his RB spot) have graduated, leaving a roster that combined for 57 catches and 480 yards. 

Outlook—Northwestern won all their non-league games last year for the first time since 1963, and it’s a good bet it will happen again in 2009.  They will only need two Big 10 wins to become bowl eligible, and with both Purdue and Indiana on the schedule, they have a great shot.  Throw in one upset along the way when the defense dominates in inclement weather, and you have the Wildcats’ first back-to-back winning seasons since 1995 and 1996, when Fitzgerald was the star linebacker.

Indiana

Strengths:

Defensive End—Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton give the Hoosiers one of the best set of terminals in the league.  Kirley is the leading returning sack master in the league after recording 10 ½ last year.  He added nine trappings of backs for losses to that total.  Middleton was a 1st Team All-Big 10 selection two years ago, but he spent most of last year in the doghouse following an early season suspension.

Linebacker—Middle linebacker Matt Mayberry led IU with 89 tackles last year, while Will Patterson added 55 and had 8 ½ total tackles for loss.

Weaknesses:

The entire offense—Indiana will struggle to score points, even with the switch to the pistol offense.  Quarterback Ben Chappell has the potential to be a 200-yard per game passer, but he just doesn’t have much support.  His receivers are not overly fast nor great hands people.  There are no potential stars at running back, and the offensive line is below average.  Look for the Hoosiers to average less than 20 points and 325 yards per game this year.

Outlook—It’s going to be a long year in Bloomington.  Indiana has to get some new blood into the moribund offense.  The defense will give the Hoosiers a couple opportunities to win a game or two, but that’s about all that can be expected.  This is, or at least was, a basketball school.  1967 was 42 years ago, and that’s the last time IU won the Big 10.

Next up: We begin regular season coverage with the PiRate and Mean spreads for the opening week of the college season.  Look for our initial NFL ratings the first of next week.

December 9, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 9, 2008

NCAA Regular Season Summation

 

Congratulations go to Oklahoma and Florida, and my condolences go to Texas, Southern Cal, and Penn State, and Alabama.  Some biased poll voters, a couple of computer geeks, and a couple of sports elitists have determined that the Sooners and Gators are a couple hundredths of a percentage point better than the rest of the pack and deserve to play for the national title.

 

Florida lost their one game at home.  Oklahoma lost their one game on a neutral field to one of the other teams up for consideration.  Alabama’s loss on a neutral field to Florida is the exact same situation.  Texas lost on the road to an undefeated Texas Tech team on the final play of the game.  Southern Cal lost on the road at Oregon State with one late play figuring greatly in the outcome.  Penn State lost on the road at Iowa on the final play of the game.  So, the computers can tell us that Florida and Oklahoma are the two most deserving? 

 

Here are the final regular season PiRate Top 25 and the PiRate Ratings by conference:

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

140

12

1

2

Oklahoma

139

12

1

3

Southern Cal

131

11

1

4

Texas

128

11

1

5

Ohio St.

127

10

2

6

Alabama

125

12

1

7

Penn St.

125

11

1

8

Ole Miss

121

8

4

9

Texas Tech

120

11

1

10

Boise State

120

12

0

11

T C U

120

10

2

12

Oregon

120

9

3

13

Utah

118

12

0

14

Iowa

117

8

4

15

Rutgers

117

7

5

16

California

116

8

4

17

Georgia 

115

9

3

18

Oklahoma St.

114

9

3

19

Arizona

114

7

5

20

Clemson

113

7

5

21

Oregon State

113

8

4

22

Missouri

113

9

4

23

Florida State

112

8

4

24

Pittsburgh

112

9

3

25

Cincinnati

110

11

2

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

4-4

7-5

113

68

45

Florida State

5-3

8-4

112

70

42

North Carolina State

4-4

6-6

106

70

36

Boston College

5-3*

9-4

104

63

41

Wake Forest

4-4

7-5

104

56

48

Maryland

4-4

7-5

101

62

39

 

 

 

 

   
Coastal Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

5-3*+

9-4

109

67

42

Georgia Tech

5-3

9-3

109

68

41

North Carolina

4-4

8-4

105

66

39

Miami

4-4

7-5

102

60

42

Virginia 

3-5

5-7

100

58

42

Duke

1-7

4-8

93

60

33

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Rutgers

5-2

7-5

117

70

47

Pittsburgh

5-2

9-3

112

66

46

Cincinnati

6-1

11-2

110

64

46

West Virginia

5-2

8-4

110

65

45

South Florida

2-5

7-5

106

68

38

Connecticut

3-4

7-5

102

64

38

Louisville

1-6

5-7

91

57

34

Syracuse

1-6

3-9

89

56

33

 

Big Ten

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

7-1

10-2

127

71

56

Penn State

7-1

11-1

125

76

49

Iowa

5-3

8-4

117

72

45

Wisconsin

3-5

7-5

107

71

36

Northwestern

5-3

9-3

105

64

41

Michigan State

6-2

9-3

104

64

40

Purdue

2-6

4-8

103

67

36

Illinois

3-5

5-7

102

65

37

Michigan

2-6

3-9

96

57

39

Minnesota

3-5

7-5

92

58

34

Indiana

1-7

3-9

79

54

25

 

Big 12

North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

5-3*

9-4

113

74

39

Kansas

4-4

7-5

109

67

42

Nebraska

5-3

8-4

108

70

38

Colorado

2-6

5-7

95

57

38

Kansas State

2-6

5-7

92

67

25

Iowa State

0-8

2-10

86

57

29

South Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

7-1+

12-1

139

97

42

Texas

7-1

11-1

128

82

46

Texas Tech

7-1

11-1

120

85

35

Oklahoma State

5-3

9-3

114

71

43

Baylor

2-6

4-8

106

68

38

Texas A&M

2-6

4-8

90

56

34

 

Conference USA

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

6-2+

9-4

99

62

37

Southern Miss.

4-4

6-6

97

64

33

Memphis

4-4

6-6

92

61

31

Marshall

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Central Florida

3-5

4-8

88

46

42

U A B

3-5

4-8

84

51

33

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

7-1*

10-3

103

72

31

Rice

7-1

9-3

97

66

31

Houston

6-2

7-5

97

67

30

U T E P

4-4

5-7

87

59

28

S M U

0-8

1-11

78

57

21

Tulane

1-7

2-10

69

50

19

 

Independents

           
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Navy  

8-4

104

61

43

Notre Dame  

6-6

98

58

40

Army  

3-9

82

46

36

 

Mid American Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Bowling Green

4-4

6-6

103

68

35

Buffalo

5-3+

8-5

101

68

33

Temple

4-4

5-7

96

57

39

Ohio U

3-5

4-8

91

51

40

Kent State

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Akron

3-5

5-7

89

60

29

Miami (O)

1-7

2-10

81

54

27

           
West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

8-0

12-1

109

73

36

Western Michigan

6-2

9-3

100

63

37

Northern Illinois

5-3

6-6

98

59

39

Central Michigan

6-2

8-4

97

68

29

Eastern Michigan

2-6

3-9

88

59

29

Toledo

2-6

3-9

85

55

30

 

Mountain West Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

7-1

10-2

120

68

52

Utah

8-0

12-0

118

70

48

Brigham Young

6-2

10-2

106

67

39

Air Force

5-3

8-4

95

58

37

Colorado State

4-4

6-6

93

60

33

New Mexico

2-6

4-8

93

56

37

UNLV

2-6

5-7

85

56

29

Wyoming

1-7

4-8

85

51

34

San Diego State

1-7

2-10

76

49

27

 

Pac-10 Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

7-1

11-1

131

72

59

Oregon

7-2

9-3

120

77

43

California

6-3

8-4

116

73

43

Arizona

5-4

7-5

114

75

39

Oregon State

7-2

8-4

113

74

39

Stanford

4-5

5-7

106

64

42

Arizona State

4-5

5-7

103

63

40

U C L A

3-6

4-8

100

57

43

Washington

0-9

0-12

81

54

27

Washington State

1-8

2-11

74

49

25

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

7-1+

12-1

140

86

54

Georgia 

6-2

9-3

115

73

42

South Carolina

4-4

7-5

108

63

45

Tennessee

3-5

5-7

107

62

45

Kentucky

2-6

6-6

102

62

40

Vanderbilt

4-4

6-6

100

55

45

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

8-0

12-1

125

69

56

Ole Miss

5-3

8-4

121

74

47

L S U

3-5

7-5

106

68

38

Arkansas

2-6

5-7

102

68

34

Auburn

2-6

5-7

102

56

46

Mississippi State

2-6

4-8

97

55

42

 

Sunbelt Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

6-1

8-4

105

69

36

Florida Atlantic

4-3

6-6

90

61

29

Middle Tennessee

3-4

5-7

90

58

32

Arkansas State

4-3

6-6

89

59

30

Florida International

3-4

5-7

89

58

31

Louisiana-Lafayette

5-2

6-6

88

66

22

Louisiana-Monroe

3-4

4-8

87

56

31

* Western Kentucky

0-0

2-10

79

49

30

North Texas

0-7

1-11

70

55

15

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

8-0

12-0

120

74

46

Nevada

5-3

7-5

102

73

29

Louisiana Tech

5-3

7-5

94

56

38

Utah State

3-5

3-9

93

57

36

Hawaii

5-3

7-6

93

55

38

Fresno State

4-4

7-5

88

61

27

San Jose State

4-4

6-6

85

53

32

New Mexico State

1-7

3-9

74

48

26

Idaho

1-7

2-10

73

57

16

 

Here is the bowl schedule

 

Date

Time EST

Bowl

City

Team

Team

D. 20

11:00

Eagle Bank

Washington DC

Wake Forest

Navy

D. 20

2:30

New Mexico

Albuquerque

Colorado State

Fresno State

D. 20

4:30

St. Petersburg

St. Petersburg

South Florida

Memphis

D. 20

8:00

Las Vegas

Las Vegas

B Y U

Arizona

D. 21

8:15

New Orleans

New Orleans

Troy

Southern Miss.

D. 23

8:00

Poinsettia

San Diego

Boise State

T C U

D. 24

8:00

Hawaii

Honolulu

Hawaii

Notre Dame

D. 26

8:00

Motor City

Detroit

Central Michigan

Florida Atlantic

D. 27

1:00

Meineke Car Care

Charlotte

North Carolina

West Virginia

D. 27

4:30

Champs Sports

Orlando

Florida State

Wisconsin

D. 27

8:00

Emerald

San Francisco

California

Miami (Fl.)

D. 28

8:15

Independence

Shrevport

Louisiana Tech

Northern Illinois

D. 29

3:00

PapaJohns

Birmingham

N. C. State

Rutgers

D. 29

8:00

Alamo

San Antonio

Northwestern

Missouri

D. 30

4:30

Humanitarian

Boise

Nevada

Maryland

D. 30

8:00

Texas

Houston

Western Michigan

Rice

D. 30

8:00

Holiday

San Diego

Oregon 

Oklahoma State

D. 31

12:00

Armed Forces

Ft. Worth

Air Force

Houston

D. 31

2:00

Sun

El Paso

Oregon State

Pittsburgh

D. 31

3:30

Music City

Nashville

Vanderbilt

Boston College

D. 31

5:30

Insight

Tempe

Kansas

Minnesota

D. 31

7:30

Chick-fil-a

Atlanta

Georgia Tech

L S U

J. 1

11:00

Outback

Tampa

Iowa

South Carolina

J. 1

1:00

Capital One

Orlando

Georgia 

Michigan State

J. 1

1:00

Gator

Jacksonville

Clemson

Nebraska

J. 1

4:30

Rose

Pasadena

Southern Cal

Penn State

J. 1

8:30

Orange

Miami

Virginia Tech

Cincinnati

J. 2

2:00

Cotton

Dallas

Texas Tech

Ole Miss

J. 2

5:00

Liberty

Memphis

East Carolina

Kentucky

J. 2

8:00

Sugar

New Orleans

Alabama

Utah

J. 3

12:00

International

Toronto

Connecticut

Buffalo

J. 5

8:00

Fiesta

Glendale

Texas

Ohio State

J. 6

8:00

G M A C

Mobile

Tulsa

Ball State

J. 8

8:00

Nat’l Championship

Miami

Florida 

Oklahoma

December 1, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of: December 3-6, 2008

NCAA Week 15: The Postseason Falls to BieCeS

 

With one weekend remaining in the regular season, the dreadful BCS has suffered from yet another snafu.  Oklahoma is in the Big 12 Championship Game because a computer or two has deemed the Sooners to be a tiny bit better than the Longhorns even though Texas beat them by 10 points on a neutral field.  The Big 12 should have never used BCS ranking to break three-way ties, but then again the BCS shouldn’t be there in the first place for the Big 12 brass to be dumb enough to use it as its tiebreaker.

 

I don’t advocate that Texas should be in that title game instead of Oklahoma or even Texas Tech.  I don’t believe the BCS system to be credible; the vote of Oklahoma over Texas is ridiculous, and if Texas had been voted in by a miniscule amount, it would have been just as ridiculous.

 

If Oklahoma wins this week over an inferior Missouri squad, the Sooners will play for the national title against the winner of the Alabama-Florida game.  Southern Cal, Texas Tech, and Penn State, as well as Utah, Boise State, and Ball State among other top contenders will get no chance to compete for all the marbles.

 

The Top 25 had very little movement after this past weekend.  The bowl situations started to come into focus, as information started to leak out on which bowls want which teams if they are available.  So, when you read the bowl section below, realize that these are not just predictions now; some of the teams are slotted based on leaked information from bowl scouts.

 

Personally, I believe Florida and Southern Cal are the two best teams in the nation.  The Gators’ offense is as good as any college team in 13 years, while the Trojans’ defense is the best college defense in 16 years.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 2-Dec-2008

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Florida 

141

11

1

2

Oklahoma

134

11

1

3

Southern Cal

132

10

1

4

Texas

128

11

1

5

Ohio St.

127

10

2

6

Penn St.

125

11

1

7

Alabama

124

12

0

8

Ole Miss

121

8

4

9

Texas Tech

120

11

1

10

Boise State

120

12

0

11

T C U

120

10

2

12

Oregon

120

9

3

13

Utah

118

12

0

14

Missouri

118

9

3

15

Iowa

117

8

4

16

Georgia 

115

9

3

17

Ball State

114

12

0

18

California

114

7

4

19

Oklahoma St.

114

9

3

20

Clemson

113

7

5

21

Oregon State

113

8

4

22

Florida State

112

8

4

23

Rutgers

112

6

5

24

Cincinnati

111

10

2

25

Arizona

111

6

5

     

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

4-4

7-5

113

68

45

Florida State

5-3

8-4

112

70

42

Boston College

5-3*

9-3

107

65

42

North Carolina State

4-4

6-6

106

70

36

Wake Forest

4-4

7-5

104

56

48

Maryland

4-4

7-5

101

62

39

 

 

 

 

   
Coastal Division

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Georgia Tech

5-3

9-3

109

68

41

Virginia Tech

5-3*

8-4

106

65

41

North Carolina

4-4

8-4

105

66

39

Miami

4-4

7-5

102

60

42

Virginia 

3-5

5-7

100

58

42

Duke

1-7

4-8

93

60

33

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

   
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Rutgers

4-2

6-5

112

67

45

Cincinnati

6-1

10-2

111

65

46

West Virginia

4-2

7-4

111

66

45

Pittsburgh

4-2

8-3

109

65

44

Connecticut

3-3

7-4

105

65

40

South Florida

2-4

7-4

105

68

37

Louisville

1-5

5-6

96

59

37

Syracuse

1-6

3-9

89

56

33

 

Big Ten

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

7-1

10-2

127

71

56

Penn State

7-1

11-1

125

76

49

Iowa

5-3

8-4

117

72

45

Wisconsin

3-5

7-5

107

71

36

Northwestern

5-3

9-3

105

64

41

Michigan State

6-2

9-3

104

64

40

Purdue

2-6

4-8

103

67

36

Illinois

3-5

5-7

102

65

37

Michigan

2-6

3-9

96

57

39

Minnesota

3-5

7-5

92

58

34

Indiana

1-7

3-9

79

54

25

 

Big 12

North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

5-3*

9-3

118

75

43

Kansas

4-4

7-5

109

67

42

Nebraska

5-3

8-4

108

70

38

Colorado

2-6

5-7

95

57

38

Kansas State

2-6

5-7

92

67

25

Iowa State

0-8

2-10

86

57

29

South Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

7-1

11-1

134

93

41

Texas

7-1

11-1

128

82

46

Texas Tech

7-1

11-1

120

85

35

Oklahoma State

5-3

9-3

114

71

43

Baylor

2-6

4-8

106

68

38

Texas A&M

2-6

4-8

90

56

34

 

Conference USA

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

6-2

8-4

98

62

36

Southern Miss.

4-4

6-6

97

64

33

Memphis

4-4

6-6

92

61

31

Marshall

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Central Florida

3-5

4-8

88

46

42

U A B

3-5

4-8

84

51

33

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

7-1*

10-2

104

73

31

Rice

7-1

9-3

97

66

31

Houston

6-2

7-5

97

67

30

U T E P

4-4

5-7

87

59

28

S M U

0-8

1-11

78

57

21

Tulane

1-7

2-10

69

50

19

 

Independents

           
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Navy  

7-4

100

60

40

Notre Dame  

6-6

98

58

40

Army  

3-8

86

49

37

 

Mid American Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Bowling Green

4-4

6-6

103

68

35

Buffalo

5-3

7-5

96

64

32

Temple

4-4

5-7

96

57

39

Ohio U

3-5

4-8

91

51

40

Kent State

3-5

4-8

89

58

31

Akron

3-5

5-7

89

60

29

Miami (O)

1-7

2-10

81

54

27

           
West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

8-0

12-0

114

75

39

Western Michigan

6-2

9-3

100

63

37

Northern Illinois

5-3

6-6

98

59

39

Central Michigan

6-2

8-4

97

68

29

Eastern Michigan

2-6

3-9

88

59

29

Toledo

2-6

3-9

85

55

30

 

Mountain West Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

7-1

10-2

120

68

52

Utah

8-0

12-0

118

70

48

Brigham Young

6-2

10-2

106

67

39

Air Force

5-3

8-4

95

58

37

Colorado State

4-4

6-6

93

60

33

New Mexico

2-6

4-8

93

56

37

UNLV

2-6

5-7

85

56

29

Wyoming

1-7

4-8

85

51

34

San Diego State

1-7

2-10

76

49

27

 

Pac-10 Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

7-1

10-1

132

73

59

Oregon

7-2

9-3

120

77

43

California

5-3

7-4

114

72

42

Oregon State

7-2

8-4

113

74

39

Arizona

4-4

6-5

111

74

37

Arizona State

4-4

5-6

106

65

41

Stanford

4-5

5-7

106

64

42

U C L A

3-5

4-7

99

57

42

Washington

0-8

0-11

83

55

28

Washington State

1-8

2-11

74

49

25

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

7-1

11-1

141

87

54

Georgia 

6-2

9-3

115

73

42

South Carolina

4-4

7-5

108

63

45

Tennessee

3-5

5-7

107

62

45

Kentucky

2-6

6-6

102

62

40

Vanderbilt

4-4

6-6

100

55

45

West Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

8-0

12-0

124

69

55

Ole Miss

5-3

8-4

121

74

47

L S U

3-5

7-5

106

68

38

Arkansas

2-6

5-7

102

68

34

Auburn

2-6

5-7

102

56

46

Mississippi State

2-6

4-8

97

55

42

 

Sunbelt Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

5-1

7-4

104

68

36

Middle Tennessee

3-3

5-6

92

58

34

Arkansas State

4-2

6-5

90

60

30

Florida Atlantic

4-3

6-6

90

61

29

Louisiana-Monroe

3-4

4-8

87

56

31

Louisiana-Lafayette

4-2

5-6

86

64

22

Florida International

3-4

4-7

86

57

29

* Western Kentucky

0-0

2-9

82

51

31

North Texas

0-7

1-11

70

55

15

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009      
Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008    

 

Western Athletic Conference

           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

8-0

12-0

120

74

46

Nevada

5-3

7-5

102

73

29

Louisiana Tech

5-3

7-5

94

56

38

Utah State

3-5

3-9

93

57

36

Hawaii

5-3

7-5

91

54

37

Fresno State

4-4

7-5

88

61

27

San Jose State

4-4

6-6

85

53

32

New Mexico State

1-7

3-9

74

48

26

Idaho

1-7

2-10

73

57

16

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

   

 

 

Wednesday, December 3  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Middle Tennessee LA.-LAFAYETTE

3

34-31

   

 

 

Thursday, December 4  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

RUTGERS Louisville

19

31-12

   

 

 

Friday, December 5  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Ball State            (Detroit) Buffalo

18

42-24

   

 

 

Saturday, December 6      
Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT

1

24-23

TULSA East Carolina

9

40-31

Navy Army

14

21-7

Boston College Virginia Tech

1

21-20

CALIFORNIA Washington

34

44-10

Florida Alabama

17

31-14

Southern Cal U C L A

30

30-0

FLA. INT’L Western Ky.

7

28-21

TROY Arkansas State

17

38-21

ARIZONA Arizona State

8

35-27

WEST VIRGINIA South Florida

9

30-21

Oklahoma Missouri

16

49-33

Cincinnati HAWAII

16

26-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

Wednesday, December 3  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

LA.-LAFAYETTE Middle Tennessee

27-24

   

 

Thursday, December 4  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

RUTGERS Louisville

34-21

   

 

Friday, December 5  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

Ball State            (Detroit) Buffalo

37-24

   

 

Saturday, December 6  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT

21-21 to OT

TULSA East Carolina

42-34

Navy             (Philadelphia) Army

35-24

Boston Coll.   (Jacksonville) Virginia Tech

20-17

CALIFORNIA Washington

42-10

Florida                 (Atlanta) Alabama

27-17

Southern Cal U C L A

34-7

FLA. INT’L Western Ky.

30-20

TROY Arkansas State

34-24

ARIZONA Arizona State

28-20

WEST VIRGINIA South Florida

24-19

Oklahoma    (Kansas City) Missouri

44-31

Cincinnati HAWAII

27-17

 

Bowl Outlook By Conference

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

After having a new team at the top of each division for multiple weeks, Boston College and Virginia Tech both won last week when they had to win.  Now, the winner of their game will advance to the Orange Bowl, while the loser probably drops to the Champs Sports Bowl.

 

With Georgia Tech’s win over Georgia, their hometown bowl will be glad to take the Yellow Jackets.  That bowl prefers a ranked team coming off a win, and Tech fits that bill.

 

Florida State will get the Gator Bowl invitation regardless of how the ACC title game turns out.  The Gator Bowl does not want to have the loser of the title game returning to Jacksonville three weeks later.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-Georgia Tech 9-3 vs. L S U

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Wisconsin

5. Music City-North Carolina 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Clemson 7-5 vs. California

9. Humanitarian-Maryland 7-5 vs. Nevada

10. Hawaii (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati has clinched a BCS Bowl spot.  The Bearcats are more than likely headed to the Orange Bowl.

 

Notre Dame’s loss to USC means the Irish may not seize one of this league’s bids.  If Rutgers beats Louisville, then there will be six, seven-win bowl eligible teams for six bowls; Notre Dame would not be eligible for a Big East Bowl, so they would become the top 6-6 at-large possibility.  Should Louisville win this week, then Notre Dame will be headed to El Paso.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Oregon State

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Ohio State is almost assured to get the final BCS Bowl bid over Boise State, so the Big Ten will not have enough bowl-eligible teams for their seven allotted bids.  That may open the Motor City Bowl for a possible match of undefeated teams.

 

Although not technically official, Penn State has been mathematically eliminated from moving into the National Championship Game.  Thus, I have them “officially” in the Rose Bowl.

 

1. Rose-PENN STATE 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

2. Fiesta-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Texas

3. Capital One-Michigan State 9-3 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Iowa 8-4 vs. South Carolina

4. Champs Sports-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Missouri

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-No qualifying team

 

Big 12

Missouri is being overlooked by everybody but Oklahoma this week, so I expect the Sooners to drill the Tigers.

 

With two teams headed to BCS Bowls, and with Colorado failing to upset Nebraska, this league will fall two teams short.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Ohio State

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Oregon

6. Alamo-Missouri 9-4 vs. Northwestern

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

Tulsa and East Carolina are the two divisional champions, and I believe the Golden Hurricane will win the title game this week.  Rice is the best team in this league as the season ends, but the Owls will not be at the top of the list for those remaining bowl-eligible teams.  Expect to see Rice fall to the Texas Bowl.

 

Unless another bowl chooses them first, Houston may wind up in Ft. Worth playing Air Force in a rematch of a game played in the regular season.  I think Rice would be a better opponent, but the Cougars are the better drawing team. 

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 7-5 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Rice 9-3 vs. Notre Dame

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is headed to the Eagle Bank Bowl regardless of their outcome with Army this week.  We know for sure that Maryland will not be their opponent in a possible in-state rivalry game.  The Terps have final exams that week, and they will not accept a bowl bid during exam week.

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl at 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  I believe they will be headed to Houston.

 

1. Texas (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Rice

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

M A C

Ball State should handle Buffalo this week.  If they do, I expect the Motor City Bowl to make a deal with the WAC to release Boise State to come to Detroit in a battle of the unbeatens.  It will thus become the top non-BCS bowl.

 

The MAC will benefit from the failure of other conferences not being able to fulfill their bowl quotas.  Three more teams (Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Buffalo) have seven wins, so there will be one extra bowl invitation for the MAC.  I have Western Michigan playing in an at-large bowl, but there is no news leaks about where they might be headed.  I have them headed west based on the fact that Boise State won’t be selected by the Poinsettia Bowl as they have that right.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Boise State

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Southern Miss.

4. Poinsettia (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. T C U

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Arizona

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Western Michigan

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon made the Rose Bowl officials happy when they defeated Oregon State.  Now Southern Cal needs to defeat UCLA to return to Pasadena for another game.

 

Arizona State can still become bowl-eligible with a win at Arizona, but I think the Wildcats have a huge revenge motive that will end the season for the Sun Devils.  Thus, I have the Pac-10 falling two spots shy of fulfilling its obligations.

 

 

1. Rose-Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Penn State

2. Holiday-Oregon 9-3 vs. Oklahoma State

3. Sun-Oregon State 8-4 vs. Rutgers

4. Las Vegas-Arizona 7-5 vs. B Y U

5. Emerald-California 8-4 vs. Wake Forest

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

What happens if Florida beats Alabama in overtime or by one point in regulation?  Might there be a rematch in a month for the National Championship?  It’s not going to happen for two reasons.  First, a loss of any kind will put Alabama behind both Oklahoma and Texas.  Second, I believe Florida will win this week by double digits.  No matter which team loses, it will be headed to New Orleans.  A Florida-Utah game would be interesting because of Urban Meyer.

 

There is a rumor going around that the Capital One Bowl could take Ole Miss over Georgia.  I think that rumor has merits, but I don’t expect the Rebels to end up in Orlando.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-South Carolina 7-5 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-L S U 7-5 vs. Georgia Tech

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. North Carolina

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy should beat Arkansas State this weekend to wrap up the SBC title.  They will be the only seven-win team in the league, but it is likely that two six-win teams will receive at-large bids.  The winner of the UL-Lafayette-Middle Tennessee game will likely wind up in Birmingham, while either Arkansas State or Florida Atlantic will take the Independence Bowl bid.  I’m guessing ASU will be picked over FAU.  Of course, if ASU beats Troy, they will head to New Orleans.  Troy would then head to Birmingham, and ULL or MTSU will end up in Shreveport.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Pittsburgh

 

W A C

The Boise State-Ball State mini-dream game is still full of potential pitfalls.  The Humanitarian Bowl wants to host this game, but Ball State doesn’t want to play Boise State on the blue turf.  Boise State may think Detroit is too close to Muncie, Indiana.  The Independence Bowl has been mentioned as a possible site since it will have to find two at-large teams, but the Independence Bowl is supposed to take a Sunbelt team if they don’t have an SEC team.  Louisiana Tech is a great bet to be the other at-large team in Shreveport.  I believe the Motor City Bowl is the best option.  That will allow the Humanitarian Bowl to take Nevada and cause no further bowl interruptions.  If the big game ends up in Boise, then the ACC will have to be compensated.  They have more than enough eligible teams to meet their obligations. 

 

1. Motor City-Boise State 12-0 vs. Ball State

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Maryland

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. North Carolina State

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.

 

 

November 24, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of November 25-29, 2008

NCAA Week 14: Oh What A Mess!!!

 

The conclusion of the 2008 FBS regular season begins this week and finishes next week.  There are multiple problems with the postseason as of now, and I don’t believe these problems will all be resolved by Saturday, December 6.

 

The national championship will produce controversy no matter which two teams are picked for the game.  Eight or more teams could conceivable have realistic arguments in favor of their being one of the final two.  The system is set up for failure, especially this season.  Except for 2005, this inept method of picking teams has “gotten it wrong” just about every season since its inception.

 

The non-BCS bowl situation couldn’t be more messed up today.  Six bowl will more than likely need at-large entries as the conferences which with they have agreements will not provide enough bowl eligible teams.  The poor Independence bowl will have to find two at-large teams unless a couple of miracle upsets occur this week.

 

NCAA Top 25 For 25-Nov-2008
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost

1

Florida 

140

10

1

2

Oklahoma

133

10

1

3

Southern Cal

132

9

1

4

Texas

128

10

1

5

Ohio St.

127

10

2

6

Penn St.

125

11

1

7

Texas Tech

122

10

1

8

Missouri

121

9

2

9

Alabama

120

11

0

10

T C U

120

10

2

11

Georgia 

119

9

2

12

Utah

118

12

0

13

Oregon State

118

8

3

14

Ole Miss

117

7

4

15

Iowa

117

8

4

16

Boise State

116

11

0

17

Oklahoma St.

115

9

2

18

Oregon

115

8

3

19

California

114

7

4

20

Ball State

113

11

0

21

Florida State

113

8

3

22

Rutgers

112

6

5

23

West Virginia

112

7

3

24

Cincinnati

111

9

2

25

South Carolina

111

7

4

Note: Ratings rounded to nearest whole number even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division          
Team Conf. Overall Rating Off Def
Florida State

5-3

8-3

113

70

43

Clemson

4-4

6-5

110

66

44

Boston College

4-3

8-3

108

65

43

N. Carolina State

3-4

5-6

106

70

36

Wake Forest

4-4

6-5

102

56

46

Maryland

4-3

7-4

100

61

39

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

4-3

7-4

106

65

41

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-3

105

64

41

North Carolina

3-4

7-4

105

66

39

Miami

4-3

7-4

102

60

42

Virginia 

3-4

5-6

100

58

42

Duke

1-6

4-7

93

60

33

 

Big East Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Rutgers

4-2

6-5

112

67

45

West Virginia

4-1

7-3

112

67

45

Cincinnati

5-1

9-2

111

65

46

Pittsburgh

3-2

7-3

108

65

43

Connecticut

3-3

7-4

105

65

40

South Florida

2-4

7-4

105

68

37

Louisville

1-5

5-6

96

59

37

Syracuse

1-5

3-8

89

56

33

 

Big Ten
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

7-1

10-2

127

71

56

Penn State

7-1

11-1

125

76

49

Iowa

5-3

8-4

117

72

45

Wisconsin

3-5

7-5

107

71

36

Northwestern

5-3

9-3

105

64

41

Michigan State

6-2

9-3

104

64

40

Purdue

2-6

4-8

103

67

36

Illinois

3-5

5-7

102

65

37

Michigan

2-6

3-9

96

57

39

Minnesota

3-5

7-5

92

58

34

Indiana

1-7

3-9

79

54

25

 

Big 12
North Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

5-2

9-2

121

75

46

Nebraska

4-3

7-4

109

70

39

Kansas

3-4

6-5

106

66

40

Colorado

2-5

5-6

94

56

38

Kansas State

2-6

5-7

92

67

25

Iowa State

0-8

2-10

86

57

29

South Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

6-1

10-1

133

90

43

Texas

6-1

10-1

128

82

46

Texas Tech

6-1

10-1

122

85

37

Oklahoma State

5-2

9-2

115

69

46

Baylor

2-5

4-7

104

66

38

Texas A&M

2-5

4-7

90

56

34

 

Conference USA
East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Miss.

3-4

5-6

97

64

33

East Carolina

5-2

7-4

94

59

35

Central Florida

3-4

4-7

92

50

42

Memphis

3-4

5-6

89

59

30

Marshall

3-4

4-7

87

56

31

U A B

2-5

3-8

80

51

29

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

6-1

9-2

106

73

33

Houston

6-1

7-4

99

67

32

Rice

6-1

8-3

95

64

31

U T E P

4-3

5-6

91

61

30

S M U

0-7

1-10

78

57

21

Tulane

1-6

2-9

72

50

22

 

Independents
           
Team  

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Notre Dame  

6-5

98

58

40

Navy  

6-4

97

60

37

Army  

3-8

86

49

37

 

Mid American Conference
East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Buffalo

5-2

7-4

99

66

33

Bowling Green

3-4

5-6

98

66

32

Temple

3-4

4-7

94

57

37

Akron

3-4

5-6

91

62

29

Ohio U

2-5

3-8

89

49

40

Kent State

2-5

3-8

86

57

29

Miami (O)

1-6

2-9

83

55

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

7-0

11-0

113

74

39

Western Michigan

6-1

9-2

101

64

37

Northern Illinois

5-3

6-5

101

62

39

Central Michigan

6-1

8-3

100

68

32

Toledo

2-5

3-8

90

58

32

Eastern Michigan

1-6

2-9

84

55

29

 

Mountain West Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

T C U

7-1

10-2

120

68

52

Utah

8-0

12-0

118

70

48

Brigham Young

6-2

10-2

106

67

39

Air Force

5-3

8-4

95

58

37

Colorado State

4-4

6-6

93

60

33

New Mexico

2-6

4-8

93

56

37

UNLV

2-6

5-7

85

56

29

Wyoming

1-7

4-8

85

51

34

San Diego State

1-7

2-10

76

49

27

 

Pac-10 Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Southern Cal

7-1

9-1

132

73

59

Oregon State

7-1

8-3

118

75

43

Oregon

6-2

8-3

115

73

42

California

5-3

7-4

114

72

42

Arizona

4-4

6-5

111

74

37

Stanford

4-5

5-7

106

64

42

Arizona State

3-4

4-6

105

64

41

U C L A

3-4

4-6

100

57

43

Washington

0-8

0-11

83

55

28

Washington State

1-8

2-10

73

49

24

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division          
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

7-1

10-1

140

87

53

Georgia 

6-2

9-2

119

73

46

South Carolina

4-4

7-4

111

65

46

Tennessee

2-5

4-7

105

61

44

Kentucky

2-5

6-5

104

63

41

Vanderbilt

4-4

6-5

102

57

45

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Alabama

7-0

11-0

120

68

52

Ole Miss

4-3

7-4

117

71

46

L S U

3-4

7-4

107

68

39

Auburn

2-5

5-6

106

58

48

Mississippi State

2-5

4-7

102

57

45

Arkansas

1-6

4-6

101

67

34

 

Sunbelt Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Troy

5-1

7-4

104

68

36

Arkansas State

3-2

5-5

93

61

32

Middle Tennessee

3-3

5-6

92

58

34

Florida Atlantic

3-3

5-6

92

61

31

La.-Monroe

3-4

4-8

87

56

31

La.-Lafayette

4-2

5-6

86

64

22

Fla. International

3-3

4-6

84

55

29

* Western Ky.

0-0

2-9

82

51

31

North Texas

0-6

1-10

67

53

14

           
* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009

Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

Western Athletic Conference
           
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Boise State

7-0

11-0

116

72

44

Nevada

4-3

6-5

102

73

29

Louisiana Tech

5-2

7-4

94

56

38

Hawaii

5-3

6-5

92

55

37

Fresno State

4-3

7-4

92

63

29

Utah State

2-5

2-9

88

55

33

San Jose State

4-4

6-6

85

53

32

New Mexico State

1-6

3-8

79

51

28

Idaho

1-7

2-10

73

57

16

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

   

 

 

Tuesday, November 25  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

BALL STATE Western Michigan

15

38-23

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Navy

7

27-20

   

 

 

Thursday, November 27  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

TEXAS Texas A&M

41

48-7

   

 

 

Friday, November 28  

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

West Virginia PITTSBURGH

1

21-20

OLE MISS Mississippi State

18

27-9

Ohio U MIAMI (O)

3

20-17

EAST CAROLINA U t e p

6

30-24

TEMPLE Akron

6

28-22

Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN

13

37-24

BUFFALO Kent State

16

37-21

L s u ARKANSAS

3

31-28

NEBRASKA Colorado

18

35-17

Bowling Green TOLEDO

5

31-26

BOISE STATE Fresno State

27

44-17

ARIZONA STATE U c l a

8

21-13

   

 

 

Saturday, November 29      
Favorite Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

ALABAMA Auburn

17

20-3

TEXAS TECH Baylor

21

49-28

Florida FLORIDA STATE

24

42-18

Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE

15

42-27

GEORGIA Georgia Tech

17

34-17

North Carolina DUKE

9

31-22

CINCINNATI Syracuse

25

35-10

WAKE FOREST Vanderbilt

3

13-10

CLEMSON South Carolina

2

21-19

BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland

11

28-17

N.C. STATE Miami-Fl

7

28-21

VIRGINIA TECH Virginia

9

23-14

TENNESSEE Kentucky

4

20-16

Missouri        (Kansas City) Kansas

15

35-20

MEMPHIS Tulane

20

38-18

Arkansas State NORTH TEXAS

23

44-21

Nevada LA. TECH

5

35-30

Houston RICE

1

35-34

UTAH STATE New Mexico St.

12

28-16

Southern Miss. S M U

16

41-25

Tulsa MARSHALL

16

40-24

CENTRAL FLORIDA U a b

15

21-6

FLA. ATLANTIC Fla. International

11

35-24

OREGON STATE Oregon

6

34-28

SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame

35

35-0

HAWAII Washington State

23

33-10

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

Tuesday, November 25  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

BALL STATE Western Michigan

31-20

Navy NORTHERN ILLINOIS

31-31 to OT

   

 

Thursday, November 27  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

TEXAS Texas A&M

49-14

   

 

Friday, November 28  

 

Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

PITTSBURGH West Virginia

27-24

OLE MISS Mississippi State

28-10

Ohio U MIAMI (O)

28-26

EAST CAROLINA U t e p

38-30

TEMPLE Akron

31-29

Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN

33-20

BUFFALO Kent State

30-14

L s u ARKANSAS

35-30

NEBRASKA Colorado

44-27

Bowling Green TOLEDO

30-27

BOISE STATE Fresno State

41-19

ARIZONA STATE U c l a

31-23

   

 

Saturday, November 29    
Favorite Underdog

Pred. Score

ALABAMA Auburn

30-7

TEXAS TECH Baylor

52-26

Florida FLORIDA STATE

35-21

Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE

42-35

GEORGIA Georgia Tech

37-28

North Carolina DUKE

30-24

CINCINNATI Syracuse

32-10

WAKE FOREST Vanderbilt

17-12

CLEMSON South Carolina

28-26

BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland

31-21

Miami-Fl N.C. STATE

31-28

VIRGINIA TECH Virginia

21-12

TENNESSEE Kentucky

17-16

Missouri        (Kansas City) Kansas

42-28

MEMPHIS Tulane

37-24

Arkansas State NORTH TEXAS

38-21

Nevada LA. TECH

38-35

RICE Houston

35-34

UTAH STATE New Mexico St.

27-22

Southern Miss. S M U

34-21

Tulsa MARSHALL

40-28

CENTRAL FLORIDA U a b

24-14

FLA. ATLANTIC Fla. International

38-33

OREGON STATE Oregon

31-24

SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame

34-7

HAWAII Washington State

42-23

 

 

Bowl Outlook by Conference

 

Another week of games have been played, and nothing was really determined bowl-wise.  Instead of knowing where some of the teams are headed, the picture is actually more clouded than it was last week.  A couple of teams were eliminated from the bowl picture, but we’re talking about UNLV and Illinois.  As we enter the Thanksgiving holiday, we only know for sure that Navy is in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl.  Penn State is all but assured of a spot in the Rose Bowl, but it isn’t official yet.

 

Teams in all CAPS have already accepted invitations to that bowl.

 

ACC

Another week, another couple of frontrunners are ripe for upset losses.  Miami and Maryland controlled their own destinies last week, but both were blown out.  Now Virginia Tech and Boston College have the easiest roads to the title game.  If the Eagles beat Maryland in Chestnut Hill this week, they are headed to Atlanta.  If Virginia Tech beats Virginia, the Hokies are joining the Eagles.

 

The overall mediocrity of this league actually could help the ACC get an extra team in the bowl discussion.  If North Carolina State beats Miami or Virginia beats Virginia Tech, the league will have 10 bowl eligible teams.  Should both the Wolfpack and Cavs win, then 11 of the 12 teams will be bowl eligible.

 

1. Orange Bowl-Boston College 10-3 vs. Cincinnati

2. Chick-fil-a-North Carolina 9-3 vs. South Carolina

3. Gator-Florida State 8-4 vs. Nebraska

4. Champs Sports-Virginia Tech 8-5 vs. Northwestern

5. Music City-Georgia Tech 8-4 vs. Vanderbilt

6. Meineke Car Care-Miami (Fla) 7-5 vs. West Virginia

7. Eagle Bank-Clemson 7-5 vs. NAVY

8. Emerald-Maryland 7-5 vs. Notre Dame

9. Humanitarian-Wake Forest 7-5 vs. Boise State

10. Texas (at-large)-N.C. State 6-6 vs. Southern Miss.

 

Big East

Cincinnati is a win away from securing a BCS Bowl bid, and it looks like they would be headed to Miami.  Coach Brian Kelly will be very popular Sunday morning if the Bearcats win, and he could be the head coach at a larger school before December 15.

 

Once Cincinnati wraps up the Orange Bowl berth, the dominoes should begin to fall.  I believe the bowls will possibly sacrifice won-loss record for distance.  With the economy in shambles, fans may be reluctant to travel great distances and spend a lot of money.  Thus, I am picking South Florida to stay at home for their bowl.  I am going with West Virginia to stay close to home.  I am sending Connecticut north of the border.

 

With Notre Dame losing to Syracuse, the Irish are no longer in the Gator Bowl picture, and I don’t think the Sun Bowl will be able to select them as the Big East representative because they will finish 6-6 and six Big East teams will win seven or more games. 

 

I have Louisville out of the picture.  The Cardinals have been a major disappointment for the second consecutive year.  Coach Steve Kragthorpe’s seat is getting hot.

 

1. Orange-Cincinnati 11-2 vs. Boston College

2. Sun-Pittsburgh 8-4 vs. Arizona

3. St. Petersburg-South Florida 7-5 vs. East Carolina

4. Meineke Car Care-West Virginia 8-4 vs. Miami (Fla)

5. International-Connecticut 8-4 vs. Buffalo

6. Papa John’s-Rutgers 7-5 vs. Middle Tennessee State

 

Big Ten

Illinois was eliminated from bowl contention last week, but I now have Ohio State slated to miss out on an at-large BCS bowl bid.  So, this league will have seven teams for seven bowls.

 

Even thought Minnesota fell mightily in November, I have the Gophers ahead of Wisconsin because it appears that the Badger fans do not plan on supporting their team en masse this year.  In a poll in the Milwaukee paper, a plurality of fans voted their opinion that UW should not even go to a bowl this year.

 

1. Rose-Penn State 11-1 vs. Oregon State

2. Capital One-Ohio State 10-2 vs. Georgia

3. Outback-Michigan State 9-3 vs. L S U

4. Champs Sports-Northwestern 9-3 vs. Virginia Tech

5. Alamo-Iowa 8-4 vs. Oklahoma State

6. Insight-Minnesota 7-5 vs. Kansas

7. Motor City-Wisconsin 7-5 vs. Ball State

 

Big 12

Missouri is definitely in the Big 12 Championship Game next week.  The other side of the league is still a three-team race.  If Oklahoma wins at Oklahoma State, then the Sooners should jump ahead of Texas in the BCS standings, even if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M 56-0.  If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech will back in to the title game if they beat Baylor.  I think Texas can only get into the Big 12 title game if Texas Tech loses to Baylor.  However, the Longhorns still have a chance to make it to the National Championship Game if Missouri beats Oklahoma in the conference title game and Southern Cal doesn’t jump ahead of them.

 

Colorado still has an outside chance of becoming bowl-eligible.  They have to win at Nebraska.  I don’t give the Buffs much chance of doing that, and I believe Coach Dan Hawkins is riding down a slippery slope in the Rockies.

 

The Cornhuskers may cut in line in the bowl pecking order.  The Gator Bowl will probably take them ahead of a 10-3 Missouri or 9-3 Oklahoma State team.

 

1. BCS National Championship-Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Florida

2. Fiesta-Texas 11-1 vs. Southern Cal

3. Cotton-Texas Tech 11-1 vs. Ole Miss

4. Gator-Nebraska 8-4 vs. Florida State

5. Holiday-Missouri 10-3 vs. California

6. Alamo-Oklahoma State 9-3 vs. Iowa

7. Insight-Kansas 6-6 vs. Minnesota

8. Independence-No Qualifying Team

9. Texas-No Qualifying team

 

C-USA

There is still unfinished business in this conference.  East Carolina has won the East Division, but the West is still a three-team race.  Tulsa has a tough road game at Marshall, while Houston plays across town at Rice.  If Rice and Tulsa finished ties, Tulsa wins.  If Tulsa loses to Marshall, the winner of the Rice-Houston game wins.  All three will go to bowls.

 

UTEP and Memphis must win their final games to become bowl-eligible.  Memphis has an easy game against lowly Tulane, but UTEP must play at East Carolina.  Should the Tigers lose, Coach Tommy West could be in trouble.

 

1. Liberty-Tulsa 11-2 vs. Kentucky

2. St. Petersburg-East Carolina 8-5 vs. South Florida

3. G M A C-Rice 8-4 vs. Central Michigan

4. Armed Forces-Houston 8-4 vs. Air Force

5. Texas-Southern Miss. 6-6 vs. N.C. State

6. New Orleans-Memphis 6-6 vs. Troy

 

Independent

Navy is the only team that definitely knows what bowl it will be playing in this year.  The Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the first Eagle Bank Bowl. 

 

Notre Dame will still be invited to a bowl after USC slaughters them to drop them to 6-6.  They will be the first 6-6 team invited as an at-large team.  Whether they accept the bid is another story, but I’m selecting them here.

 

1. Emerald (at-large)-Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Maryland

2. Eagle Bank-NAVY 7-5 vs. Clemson

 

M A C

Ball State has a big home game with Western Michigan Tuesday night.  Then, they would have to beat Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game and hope Boise State, Alabama, and Southern Cal all lose just to have a minute chance at getting an at-large bid to a BCS bowl.  It looks like the Motor City Bowl is the best they can hope for.  I would love to see some arrangement made to pit a 13-0 Ball State team against a 12-0 Boise State team.  A lot of deals would have to be made.

 

Central and Western Michigan should easily receive bowl bids.  Buffalo is a virtually guaranteed a bowl as well thanks to them picking up their seventh win last week.

 

Northern Illinois will become the fifth bowl team if they defeat Navy.  Even if they lose, they could still have a shot at 6-6, since their fans travel well.

 

1. Motor City-Ball State 13-0 vs. Wisconsin

2. International-Buffalo 8-5 vs. Connecticut

3. G M A C-Central Michigan 9-3 vs. Rice

4. Hawaii (at-large)-Western Michigan 9-3 vs. Hawaii

 

Mountain West

Utah is officially a BCS bowl invitee.  It appears that they are headed to the Big Easy to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl the last three years, and I believe the folks in sin city will invite the Cougars a fourth consecutive time.  TCU is still a possibility, but in this time of economic turmoil, I’m guessing it will be a number’s game that comes up craps for the Frogs.

 

1. Sugar-Utah 12-0 vs. Alabama

2. Las Vegas-B Y U 10-2 vs. Oregon

3. Poinsettia-T C U 10-2 vs. Boise State

4. New Mexico-Colorado State 6-6 vs. Fresno State

5. Armed Forces-Air Force 8-4 vs. Houston

 

Pac-10

Oregon State won at Arizona, and now the Beavers need to take care of business at home against Oregon.  If they win, they head to the Rose Bowl for the first time in more than four decades!  They would get a chance to redeem themselves against Penn State.

 

Southern Cal could still climb up to second in the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas both lose again this season.

 

Arizona State could still become bowl eligible by beating both UCLA and Arizona.  It could happen, but for now I am picking Arizona to end that dream.

 

 

1. Rose-Oregon State 9-3 vs. Penn State

2. Fiesta (at-large) Southern Cal 11-1 vs. Texas

3. Holiday-California 8-4 vs. Missouri

4. Sun-Arizona 8-4 vs. Pittsburgh

5. Las Vegas-Oregon 8-4 vs. B Y U

6. Emerald-No qualifying team

6. Poinsettia-No qualifying team

7. Hawaii- No qualifying team

 

S E C

Florida continues to move farther and farther ahead of the pack in college football.  I have the Gators at least a touchdown ahead of any other team.

 

Alabama is still number one in the official polls.  What if the Crimson Tide destroys Auburn and loses to Florida in overtime on a missed two-point conversion?  Might we see the same two teams play again for the national title?  Could it happen?  I think the Gators will take ‘Bama by more than two touchdowns to make it a moot point.

 

Arkansas was eliminated from the bowl talk last week, and I expect Auburn to go away this week.  If Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville, the Tigers deserve to rot into the basement in the SEC West for years.  Tuberville is a class act, and he knows how to coach.  I don’t think there is a savior out there who can do any better.

 

Kentucky and Vanderbilt will probably both finish 6-6, and that presents a mismatch problem if Tulsa wins the C-USA title.  The Golden Hurricane would be a prohibitive favorite over both teams.  Might the Liberty Bowl decide to allow the Independence of Papa John’s Bowl to take one of these 6-6 and then go after an undefeated Ball State team as an at-large opponent?  It’s something to consider, but I believe the Wildcats will travel to Memphis.  If Rice wins the C-USA title, then Kentucky will definitely be the opponent, since Vandy has already played the Owls.

 

1. National Championship-Florida 12-1 vs. Oklahoma

2. Sugar-Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah

3. Capital One-Georgia 10-2 vs. Ohio State

4. Outback-L S U 8-4 vs. Michigan State

5. Cotton-Ole Miss 8-4 vs. Texas Tech

6. Chick-fil-a-South Carolina 7-5 vs. North Carolina

7. Music City-Vanderbilt 6-6 vs. Georgia Tech

8. Liberty-Kentucky 6-6 vs. Tulsa

9. Independence-No qualifying team

10. Papa John’s-No qualifying team

 

Sunbelt

Troy has all but wrapped up the New Orleans Bowl berth.  It looks highly likely that no other SBC team will finish 7-5, but as many as three will finish 6-6.  Because I see at least four and possibly five 6-6 teams being required to fill out the at-large spots, two at-large bids could go to this league. 

 

The Sunbelt has side bets with three other bowls, and two of them will be needing to find alternative invitees.  So, I am going with the two teams I believe will travel the best here.

 

1. New Orleans-Troy 8-4 vs. Memphis

2. Independence (at-large) Arkansas State 6-6 vs. La. Tech

3. Papa John’s (at-large) Middle Tennessee 6-6 vs. Rutgers

W A C

Boise State should take care of business against Fresno State this week and finish the regular season at 12-0.  They won’t get a sniff at an at-large BCS bowl bid.  Their only hope is if Oregon State loses to Oregon, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, Texas loses to Texas A&M, and Texas Tech loses to Baylor (or if Missouri wins the Big 12 title).

 

The WAC has a provisional agreement with the Poinsettia Bowl should the Pac-10 not have a team available.  They won’t this year, and that could allow Boise State to go there.  Economics may trump this theory as the Humanitarian Bowl will want the Broncos to stay home.  For now, I am selecting Boise to head south and west to play a better opponent than they would face on the blue field.

 

San Jose State looks like the odd man out this year, unless the Poinsettia Bowl would prefer them to Boise State.  Then, Nevada might be the odd man out.  If the Wolf Pack take care of business this week at Louisiana Tech, then they will take a bid away from a 6-6 team.

 

1. Poinsettia (at-large) Boise State 12-0 vs. T C U

2. Humanitarian-Nevada 6-6 vs. Wake Forest

3. New Mexico-Fresno State 7-5 vs. Colorado State

4. Hawaii-Hawaii 7-6 vs. Western Michigan

5. Independence (at-large)-La. Tech 8-4 vs. Arkansas St.

 

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