College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 15-19, 2016

After one of the most contentious elections in over 100 years, the college football world decided to make Tuesday’s vote of the College Football Playoff Committee just as controversial before it can be released.

Truth be told, there only needs to be two playoff bids issued this year. The first one should go to Alabama as the number one seed, and the second one should go to the College All-Star Team as the number two seed. This Crimson Tide team has the look of one of John Wooden’s UCLA basketball teams during the Alcindor-Walton years. Coach Nick Saban’s team has pulled away from the pack now that Clemson, Michigan, and Washington fell Saturday.

There is still a lot to be decided, and there are some interesting scenarios left before four teams can earn golden tickets in December. Let’s take a look at each conference.

American Athletic
Temple and South Florida are tied for first in the East at 5-1 with Central Florida a game back at 4-2. Temple has the inside track to take the divisional crown, as the Owls have a road game against Tulane and a home game with East Carolina left on their schedule and hold the tiebreaker over the both contenders.

Navy leads the West and must lose to both East Carolina and SMU in order for either Houston or Tulsa to win the division. Memphis and Tulsa have such slim chances of winning the division in a multiple tie that it is not worth mentioning all the possibilities that must happen to make it real.

Atlantic Coast
Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh is not enough to push Louisville over the top in the Atlantic Division. The Cardinals need for Wake Forest to upset the Tigers this weekend, and that is not likely to happen. Louisville could profit off a Clemson loss in the ACC Championship Game. If the Cardinals win out and CU loses again, UL could move into the playoffs without appearing in a championship game.

The Coastal Division did not change even though the two co-leaders were both upset. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are tied at 5-2. If the two stay tied at either 6-2 or 5-3, then the Hokies win the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh and Miami can both get to 5-3, but Virginia Tech wins any and all tiebreakers against any possible 5-3 opponent.

Big 12
Oklahoma leads at 7-0, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia both have just one conference loss and are still alive in the conference championship race. The Sooners close with West Virginia in Morgantown and Oklahoma State in Norman.

The three teams cannot finished tied at 8-1, because with the Sooners playing both one-loss teams, one of the three teams must lose a second conference game. There is a scenario where all three teams could finish tied with two losses, but it is not all that likely. If Oklahoma loses to both contenders to drop to 7-2, and if Oklahoma State loses at TCU this weekend, while West Virginia loses at Iowa State, then OSU will be the Big 12 Champion.

Big Ten
Oh, did this past weekend really throw a monkey wrench into the workings. With Iowa beating Michigan, it opened up the possibility that Penn State could sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game as East Division champ. If the Nittany Lions win out against Rutgers and Michigan State, and if Ohio State beats Michigan, then Coach James Franklin will lead Penn State to Indianapolis on December 3. Whether Ohio State can win out to finish 11-1, miss the conference title game, and still get a bid to the Playoffs is unsure.

In the West, there are even more possible scenarios than in the East. Wisconsin is the only divisionteam that controls its own destiny. If the Badgers beat Purdue and Minnesota , they go to Indy. If UW loses a game, and Nebraska beats Maryland and Iowa, the Cornhuskers take the flag. Then, there is the possibility that if both Wisconsin and Nebraska lose, there are scenarios where Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern could make it to the Championship Game.

Conference USA
The two division races are basically decided after the two division leaders won on Saturday. Western Kentucky has one game left at Marshall on November 26. If the 6-1 Hilltoppers win that game, they are East Champs. If WKU falls in Huntington, then Old Dominion can win the division title by closing with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech clinched the West with their win over UTSA Saturday. The Bulldogs have won seven games in a row after starting the year at 1-3, including pinning the lone conference loss on WKU.

Mid-American
You probably haven’t followed the race in the MAC East much this year, because the other division has gotten all the headlines. However, one of the wackiest ever races in the history of college football could be taking place on this side of the league. There is a chance that a team that began the year losing its first six games, including a home loss to Eastern Illinois, could find itself in the MAC Championship Game! Miami of Ohio was 0-6 after losing big at Akron in early October. Since then, the Redhawks have reeled off five consecutive wins and will become bowl eligible if they beat Ball State a week from Tuesday.

Ohio has the inside advantage to winning the East Division, but should the Bobcats end the year by losing at Central Michigan (who needs to win to become bowl eligible) and at home to Akron (who will need to win to become bowl eligible), then Miami will earn the right to play the behemoth in the other division.

That behemoth is Western Michigan, the number 14 team in this week’s AP Poll and current leader of the pack among the Group of 5 leagues for the Cotton Bowl bid. Before we annoint the Broncos into the Dallas classic, they must beat Toledo on Black Friday and then win the MAC Championship Game. If Toledo wins out over Ball State and WMU, then the Rockets will play in the conference title game.

Mountain West
The Mountain Division race became a bit cloudier after Wyoming lost at UNLV on Saturday. There is now a three-way tie with the Cowboys, New Mexico, and Boise State. At the moment, Boise has the clearest path to the division flag, but they must still play at Air Force. The other two contenders have tough closing schedules, as Wyoming closes with San Diego State and New Mexico, and the Lobos play at Colorado State before hosting the Cowboys. In the event there is a tie, Wyoming owns the tiebreaker over Boise State, and Boise State owns the tiebreaker over New Mexico. If the three teams finished tied with 6-2 records, it will depend on whether Wyoming’s second loss was to San Diego State or New Mexico that determines who gets the nod.

There is no trouble about the West Division race. SDSU wrapped it up about the time the Cubs won the World Series. The Aztecs will be the only division team to become bowl eligible, unless UNLV can upset Boise State and beat Nevada.

Pac-12
There is very little chance that a Pac-12 team will make the Playoffs this year after Washington fell to USC. The contending teams are now playing for a trip to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl.

In the North, it is now Washington State in the lead, but that lead could be short-lived. After winning eight consecutive games for the first time since 1930, the Cougars close with games at Colorado and at home against Washington. The game in Boulder is now the tougher game of the two, as we believe Coach Mike Leach’s club will top the Huskies in the Apple Cup game at beautiful Martin Stadium. Washington can still win the division flag by winning in the Palouse on Black Friday.

Colorado has a half-game lead over USC in the South, but the Trojans hold the tiebreaker over the Buffs should the two teams tie. CU closes with home games against WSU and Utah, and Coach Mike MacIntyre would have to become one of the leading candidates for National Coach of the Year, should CU win both of these games and claim the South crown after being picked last in the preseason.

Don’t forget Utah just yet. The Utes are a game back at 5-2 and host Oregon before heading to Boulder a week later. If Utah beats the Ducks and then knocks off CU, the Utes would own the tiebreaker over a 7-2 CU and 7-2 USC.

USC can win the South by beating UCLA this week and then hoping that both CU and Utah lose a game. One of the other two must lose because they face off, but the winner of that game will have to lose this week as well.

Southeastern
The only race is in the East, and it is now a two-team race between Florida and Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU this weekend, they are in the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive year. If LSU wins, and then Tennessee beats Missouri and Vanderbilt, the Vols will head to the Championship Game.

Alabama has already wrapped up the SEC West, and if they win out, they will be the heaviest favorite in the three-year existence of the Playoffs. A 15-0 Crimson Tide National Champion would have to rank up there with Miami of 2001, Nebraska of 1971 and 1995, USC of 1932 and 1972, and Army of 1944 and 1945 as the best team of all time.

Sunbelt
If you think Louisville deserves a shot at the College Football Playoffs with an 11-1 record and the lone loss at Clemson in a game that went to the final minute, then what about Troy? Troy could also finish 11-1 with its lone loss at Clemson in a game that came down to the final minute. The Trojans debuted in the AP Top 25 this week, but don’t expect this team to make it to an New Year’s 6 Bowl game, even if they win out. Western Michigan, San Diego State, and Boise State must all lose a game before Troy has a chance, and if Houston beats Louisville, the Cougars will top the Trojans as well.

Troy still has three games left on its schedule, and one of those three is a home game Thursday night against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are still undefeated in conference play, so the conference championship will be up for grabs this week.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	138.0	131.4	138.1	135.8
2	Ohio St.	128.9	128.3	129.5	128.9
3	Michigan	129.2	126.9	129.2	128.4
4	Louisville	129.4	125.0	129.6	128.0
5	Washington	128.0	121.0	127.4	125.5
6	Clemson	127.4	120.7	126.3	124.8
7	LSU	126.3	121.2	125.9	124.5
8	Oklahoma	121.1	119.6	120.8	120.5
9	USC	122.4	117.4	120.7	120.2
10	Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
11	Wisconsin	119.3	116.8	120.0	118.7
12	Florida St.	120.2	114.1	119.5	117.9
13	Washington St.	118.5	115.2	118.3	117.4
14	Colorado	117.8	113.5	117.7	116.4
15	North Carolina	118.2	112.5	118.1	116.3
16	Miami	118.1	112.5	117.8	116.1
17	Virginia Tech	115.9	114.6	115.9	115.5
18	Penn St.	115.0	115.9	114.8	115.2
19	Oklahoma St.	114.8	115.8	114.2	114.9
20	Texas A&M	115.6	113.7	115.0	114.8
21	Tennessee	115.7	113.2	114.8	114.6
22	Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
23	Pittsburgh	115.0	110.9	114.2	113.4
24	Western Michigan	112.7	112.3	114.3	113.1
25	Florida	112.2	113.7	110.5	112.1
26	Utah	114.1	108.8	112.7	111.9
27	West Virginia	112.1	111.5	111.7	111.8
28	Notre Dame	112.8	109.9	111.9	111.5
29	Ole Miss	112.6	108.6	111.4	110.9
30	TCU	110.6	112.1	109.7	110.8
31	Iowa	111.6	109.2	111.3	110.7
32	Texas	110.0	111.0	109.2	110.1
33	San Diego St.	109.7	108.2	111.8	109.9
34	South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
35	Georgia	109.8	108.9	109.1	109.3
36	Northwestern	110.8	107.0	109.9	109.2
37	Arkansas	111.2	106.8	109.5	109.2
38	UCLA	110.0	108.3	109.3	109.2
39	BYU	110.6	105.3	110.5	108.8
40	Baylor	108.4	109.0	108.7	108.7
41	Georgia Tech	109.9	105.9	108.9	108.2
42	Nebraska	109.1	106.5	108.8	108.1
43	Houston	107.9	107.1	109.1	108.0
44	Kansas St.	106.9	109.1	106.8	107.6
45	Temple	107.2	106.4	107.7	107.1
46	Boise St.	106.1	107.0	107.0	106.7
47	Mississippi St.	107.5	105.7	106.5	106.6
48	Western Kentucky	106.7	104.5	108.0	106.4
49	North Carolina St.	106.6	103.5	106.4	105.5
50	Michigan St.	105.9	105.0	104.3	105.1
51	Minnesota	105.5	104.3	105.0	104.9
52	Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.8	104.8
53	Texas Tech	105.3	104.6	104.2	104.7
54	Toledo	103.2	103.7	104.2	103.7
55	Duke	103.9	103.1	103.5	103.5
56	Navy	103.7	102.1	103.6	103.2
57	Memphis	103.9	102.1	102.8	103.0
58	Oregon	103.7	102.2	102.6	102.8
59	Indiana	102.5	104.1	101.9	102.8
60	Wake Forest	102.2	100.6	102.6	101.8
61	Virginia	102.8	100.1	102.0	101.6
62	Arizona St.	102.4	101.1	100.8	101.5
63	Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
64	Vanderbilt	101.8	98.9	100.5	100.4
65	South Carolina	100.4	100.1	100.1	100.2
66	Appalachian St.	99.3	100.3	101.0	100.2
67	Louisiana Tech	98.7	100.7	100.7	100.0
68	Central Florida	99.1	100.2	100.0	99.8
69	Syracuse	99.9	96.8	98.1	98.3
70	Iowa St.	98.6	98.4	97.8	98.3
71	Missouri	98.7	97.9	98.1	98.3
72	California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
73	Air Force	96.5	98.3	96.8	97.2
74	Troy	94.1	98.2	96.2	96.2
75	Maryland	95.9	98.4	94.1	96.1
76	New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
77	SMU	95.0	94.5	97.1	95.6
78	Northern Illinois	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5
79	Oregon St.	97.3	92.8	96.0	95.4
80	Boston College	95.9	94.6	95.0	95.2
81	Wyoming	94.1	94.4	94.9	94.5
82	Ohio	92.0	97.7	92.8	94.2
83	Central Michigan	93.0	94.9	93.3	93.7
84	Arizona	94.8	92.5	93.2	93.5
85	Colorado St.	92.6	94.3	93.6	93.5
86	Cincinnati	93.1	93.5	92.7	93.1
87	Arkansas St.	91.3	93.6	93.0	92.6
88	Illinois	93.0	90.0	92.0	91.7
89	Army	88.8	95.2	90.0	91.3
90	East Carolina	90.0	91.6	90.2	90.6
91	Miami (O)	89.6	91.1	91.1	90.6
92	Connecticut	90.8	89.8	90.3	90.3
93	Old Dominion	88.7	91.7	89.7	90.0
94	Purdue	90.5	89.0	89.1	89.5
95	Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
96	Middle Tennessee	88.6	90.1	88.9	89.2
97	Kent St.	87.9	89.4	88.8	88.7
98	Georgia Southern	87.1	87.7	88.8	87.9
99	UTSA	84.9	91.2	87.2	87.8
100	Eastern Michigan	86.7	88.8	87.2	87.6
101	Rutgers	88.7	86.6	87.3	87.6
102	Southern Mississippi	87.1	87.5	87.2	87.3
103	UNLV	85.8	88.6	86.2	86.9
104	Tulane	84.7	88.5	85.5	86.2
105	Idaho	83.3	88.3	85.3	85.6
106	Nevada	84.5	86.7	85.1	85.5
107	Ball St.	84.0	86.3	84.8	85.0
108	Marshall	83.2	86.6	84.0	84.6
109	South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
110	Kansas	83.5	88.1	81.2	84.3
111	San Jose St.	84.0	84.0	83.7	83.9
112	Akron	81.2	86.4	82.0	83.2
113	Bowling Green	82.8	83.6	83.1	83.2
114	Massachusetts	80.2	86.5	81.3	82.7
115	UL-Lafayette	79.5	84.3	81.1	81.7
116	Florida International	79.6	84.0	80.0	81.2
117	North Texas	79.9	82.9	80.3	81.1
118	Hawaii	80.8	80.3	80.5	80.5
119	Georgia St.	78.0	82.6	79.8	80.1
120	Charlotte	76.7	82.3	77.3	78.8
121	Fresno St.	77.3	80.8	77.0	78.4
122	Florida Atlantic	75.7	80.4	78.3	78.1
123	Buffalo	75.8	82.2	76.3	78.1
124	Rice	75.3	81.9	75.6	77.6
125	UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.8	74.4
126	New Mexico St.	71.8	74.7	72.8	73.1
127	UL-Monroe	70.2	75.4	71.0	72.2
128	Texas St.	65.9	68.4	66.8	67.0

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
Temple	107.2	106.4	107.7	107.1
Central Florida	99.1	100.2	100.0	99.8
Cincinnati	93.1	93.5	92.7	93.1
East Carolina	90.0	91.6	90.2	90.6
Connecticut	90.8	89.8	90.3	90.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	107.9	107.1	109.1	108.0
Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.8	104.8
Navy	103.7	102.1	103.6	103.2
Memphis	103.9	102.1	102.8	103.0
SMU	95.0	94.5	97.1	95.6
Tulane	84.7	88.5	85.5	86.2
AAC Averages	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	129.4	125.0	129.6	128.0
Clemson	127.4	120.7	126.3	124.8
Florida St.	120.2	114.1	119.5	117.9
North Carolina St.	106.6	103.5	106.4	105.5
Wake Forest	102.2	100.6	102.6	101.8
Syracuse	99.9	96.8	98.1	98.3
Boston College	95.9	94.6	95.0	95.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	118.2	112.5	118.1	116.3
Miami	118.1	112.5	117.8	116.1
Virginia Tech	115.9	114.6	115.9	115.5
Pittsburgh	115.0	110.9	114.2	113.4
Georgia Tech	109.9	105.9	108.9	108.2
Duke	103.9	103.1	103.5	103.5
Virginia	102.8	100.1	102.0	101.6
ACC Averages	111.8	108.2	111.3	110.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	121.1	119.6	120.8	120.5
Oklahoma St.	114.8	115.8	114.2	114.9
West Virginia	112.1	111.5	111.7	111.8
TCU	110.6	112.1	109.7	110.8
Texas	110.0	111.0	109.2	110.1
Baylor	108.4	109.0	108.7	108.7
Kansas St.	106.9	109.1	106.8	107.6
Texas Tech	105.3	104.6	104.2	104.7
Iowa St.	98.6	98.4	97.8	98.3
Kansas	83.5	88.1	81.2	84.3
Big 12 Averages	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.9	128.3	129.5	128.9
Michigan	129.2	126.9	129.2	128.4
Penn St.	115.0	115.9	114.8	115.2
Michigan St.	105.9	105.0	104.3	105.1
Indiana	102.5	104.1	101.9	102.8
Maryland	95.9	98.4	94.1	96.1
Rutgers	88.7	86.6	87.3	87.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	119.3	116.8	120.0	118.7
Iowa	111.6	109.2	111.3	110.7
Northwestern	110.8	107.0	109.9	109.2
Nebraska	109.1	106.5	108.8	108.1
Minnesota	105.5	104.3	105.0	104.9
Illinois	93.0	90.0	92.0	91.7
Purdue	90.5	89.0	89.1	89.5
Big Ten Averages	107.6	106.3	106.9	106.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	106.7	104.5	108.0	106.4
Old Dominion	88.7	91.7	89.7	90.0
Middle Tennessee	88.6	90.1	88.9	89.2
Marshall	83.2	86.6	84.0	84.6
Florida International	79.6	84.0	80.0	81.2
Charlotte	76.7	82.3	77.3	78.8
Florida Atlantic	75.7	80.4	78.3	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	98.7	100.7	100.7	100.0
UTSA	84.9	91.2	87.2	87.8
Southern Mississippi	87.1	87.5	87.2	87.3
North Texas	79.9	82.9	80.3	81.1
Rice	75.3	81.9	75.6	77.6
UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.8	74.4
CUSA Averages	84.4	87.8	85.5	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.8	109.9	111.9	111.5
BYU	110.6	105.3	110.5	108.8
Army	88.8	95.2	90.0	91.3
Massachusetts	80.2	86.5	81.3	82.7
Independents Averages	98.1	99.2	98.4	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	92.0	97.7	92.8	94.2
Miami (O)	89.6	91.1	91.1	90.6
Kent St.	87.9	89.4	88.8	88.7
Akron	81.2	86.4	82.0	83.2
Bowling Green	82.8	83.6	83.1	83.2
Buffalo	75.8	82.2	76.3	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	112.7	112.3	114.3	113.1
Toledo	103.2	103.7	104.2	103.7
Northern Illinois	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5
Central Michigan	93.0	94.9	93.3	93.7
Eastern Michigan	86.7	88.8	87.2	87.6
Ball St.	84.0	86.3	84.8	85.0
MAC Averages	90.3	92.7	91.1	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	107.0	107.0	106.7
Air Force	96.5	98.3	96.8	97.2
New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
Wyoming	94.1	94.4	94.9	94.5
Colorado St.	92.6	94.3	93.6	93.5
Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	109.7	108.2	111.8	109.9
UNLV	85.8	88.6	86.2	86.9
Nevada	84.5	86.7	85.1	85.5
San Jose St.	84.0	84.0	83.7	83.9
Hawaii	80.8	80.3	80.5	80.5
Fresno St.	77.3	80.8	77.0	78.4
MWC Averages	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	128.0	121.0	127.4	125.5
Washington St.	118.5	115.2	118.3	117.4
Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
Oregon	103.7	102.2	102.6	102.8
California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
Oregon St.	97.3	92.8	96.0	95.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	122.4	117.4	120.7	120.2
Colorado	117.8	113.5	117.7	116.4
Utah	114.1	108.8	112.7	111.9
UCLA	110.0	108.3	109.3	109.2
Arizona St.	102.4	101.1	100.8	101.5
Arizona	94.8	92.5	93.2	93.5
Pac-12 Averages	110.5	106.4	109.4	108.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	115.7	113.2	114.8	114.6
Florida	112.2	113.7	110.5	112.1
Georgia	109.8	108.9	109.1	109.3
Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
Vanderbilt	101.8	98.9	100.5	100.4
South Carolina	100.4	100.1	100.1	100.2
Missouri	98.7	97.9	98.1	98.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	138.0	131.4	138.1	135.8
LSU	126.3	121.2	125.9	124.5
Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
Texas A&M	115.6	113.7	115.0	114.8
Ole Miss	112.6	108.6	111.4	110.9
Arkansas	111.2	106.8	109.5	109.2
Mississippi St.	107.5	105.7	106.5	106.6
SEC Averages	112.3	110.1	111.5	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.3	100.3	101.0	100.2
Troy	94.1	98.2	96.2	96.2
Arkansas St.	91.3	93.6	93.0	92.6
Georgia Southern	87.1	87.7	88.8	87.9
Idaho	83.3	88.3	85.3	85.6
South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
UL-Lafayette	79.5	84.3	81.1	81.7
Georgia St.	78.0	82.6	79.8	80.1
New Mexico St.	71.8	74.7	72.8	73.1
UL-Monroe	70.2	75.4	71.0	72.2
Texas St.	65.9	68.4	66.8	67.0
Sun Belt Averages	82.1	85.7	83.5	83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.3	110.1	111.5	111.3
2	ACC	111.8	108.2	111.3	110.4
3	Pac-12	110.5	106.4	109.4	108.8
4	Big 12	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
5	Big Ten	107.6	106.3	106.9	106.9
6	AAC	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.3
7	Independents	98.1	99.2	98.4	98.6
8	MWC	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
9	MAC	90.3	92.7	91.1	91.4
10	CUSA	84.4	87.8	85.5	85.9
11	Sun Belt	82.1	85.7	83.5	83.7

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive ratings are similar to poll rankings–wins and schedule strength

These ratings are not predictive in nature

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Louisville
4	Clemson
5	Michigan
6	Wisconsin
7	Washington
8	Penn St.
9	USC
10	Colorado
11	Western Michigan
12	Washington St.
13	Oklahoma
14	Florida St.
15	Auburn
16	LSU
17	West Virginia
18	Boise St.
19	Nebraska
20	Texas A&M
21	Utah
22	Stanford
23	Tennessee
24	Florida
25	Oklahoma St.
26	South Florida
27	North Carolina
28	Virginia Tech
29	Houston
30	San Diego St.
31	Troy
32	Ole Miss
33	Pittsburgh
34	Miami (Fla)
35	Navy
36	Temple
37	Iowa
38	BYU
39	Arkansas
40	Toledo
41	Tulsa
42	Northwestern
43	Minnesota
44	Western Kentucky
45	Appalachian St.
46	Georgia
47	Kansas St.
48	Baylor
49	Georgia Tech
50	Louisiana Tech
51	TCU
52	UCLA
53	Wyoming
54	Memphis
55	Texas
56	Central Florida
57	North Carolina St.
58	Arizona St.
59	Air Force
60	Wake Forest
61	Indiana
62	Kentucky
63	California
64	Mississippi St.
65	Maryland
66	South Carolina
67	New Mexico
68	Notre Dame
69	Old Dominion
70	Texas Tech
71	Oregon
72	Ohio
73	Colorado St.
74	Duke
75	SMU
76	Vanderbilt
77	Arkansas St.
78	Idaho
79	Syracuse
80	Eastern Michigan
81	Boston College
82	Middle Tennessee
83	Oregon St.
84	Michigan St.
85	Central Michigan
86	Illinois
87	Missouri
88	Georgia Southern
89	Southern Miss.
90	UTSA
91	Army
92	Miami (O)
93	Cincinnati
94	Arizona
95	South Alabama
96	Northern Illinois
97	Utah St.
98	Akron
99	East Carolina
100	Virginia
101	Tulane
102	UL-Lafayette
103	Kent St.
104	UNLV
105	Hawaii
106	Iowa St.
107	Connecticut
108	Purdue
109	North Texas
110	Ball St.
111	Rutgers
112	UL-Monroe
113	San Jose St.
114	Charlotte
115	Marshall
116	Bowling Green
117	Nevada
118	Georgia St.
119	Florida Int’l.
120	New Mexico St.
121	Massachusetts
122	UTEP
123	Kansas
124	Florida Atlantic
125	Texas St.
126	Buffalo
127	Rice
128	Fresno St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 15
Bowling Green	Kent St.	-3.1	-3.8	-3.7
Central Michigan	Ohio U	3.5	-0.3	3.0
Wednesday, November 16
Toledo	Ball St.	21.7	19.9	21.9
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	-5.5	-4.7	-6.1
Thursday, November 17
Houston	Louisville	-18.5	-14.9	-17.5
Troy	Arkansas St.	5.8	7.6	6.2
Friday, November 18
Cincinnati	Memphis	-7.8	-5.6	-7.1
Boise St.	UNLV	23.3	21.4	23.8
Saturday, November 19
Oregon St.	Arizona	5.5	3.3	5.8
Colorado	Washington St.	2.3	1.3	2.4
Utah	Oregon	13.4	9.6	13.1
SMU	South Florida	-11.8	-10.4	-9.2
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-1.2	-0.7	-1.5
Illinois	Iowa	-15.6	-16.2	-16.3
Minnesota	Northwestern	-1.7	0.3	-1.9
Baylor	Kansas St.	4.7	2.9	4.9
Nebraska	Maryland	16.2	11.1	17.7
Purdue	Wisconsin	-25.8	-24.8	-27.9
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-20.0	-20.3	-22.2
Texas A&M	UTSA	33.2	25.0	30.3
Georgia	UL-Lafayette	33.3	27.6	31.0
Rice	UTEP	5.4	7.5	4.3
Georgia Tech	Virginia	10.1	8.8	9.9
North Carolina St.	Miami (Fla.)	-8.5	-6.0	-8.4
LSU	Florida	17.1	10.5	18.4
Boston College	Connecticut	7.1	6.8	6.7
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-9.4	-5.3	-9.1
BYU	Massachusetts	33.9	22.3	32.7
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-3.1	-7.0
Appalachian St.	UL-Monroe	32.1	27.9	33.0
Pittsburgh	Duke	14.1	10.8	13.7
Western Michigan	Buffalo	39.9	33.1	41.0
Syracuse	Florida St.	-17.3	-14.3	-19.4
Kansas	Texas	-23.5	-19.9	-25.0
Wyoming	San Diego St.	-12.6	-10.8	-13.9
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	-0.1	-1.7	-1.0
Tennessee	Missouri	20.0	18.3	19.7
Tulane	Temple	-19.5	-14.9	-19.2
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	-3.7	-3.2	-3.4
Michigan	Indiana	29.7	25.8	30.3
East Carolina	Navy	-10.7	-7.5	-10.4
New Mexico St.	Texas St.	8.4	8.8	8.5
California	Stanford	-14.1	-14.1	-16.0
North Texas	Southern Miss.	-4.7	-2.1	-4.4
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	-10.0	-8.3	-8.4
Wake Forest	Clemson	-22.2	-17.1	-20.7
Fresno St.	Hawaii	0.5	4.5	0.5
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-1.1	-0.1	-1.5
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	-0.7	1.9	0.1
Washington	Arizona St.	28.6	22.9	29.6
Central Florida	Tulsa	-2.0	-1.8	-1.8
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-6.0	-5.1	-6.1
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	-8.8	-7.7	-8.9
Rutgers	Penn St.	-23.8	-26.8	-25.0
Colorado St.	New Mexico	1.0	0.5	1.2
UCLA	USC	-11.4	-8.1	-10.4
San Jose St.	Air Force	-9.5	-11.3	-10.1
Nevada	Utah St.	-0.9	-1.6	-0.2

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS vs. FCS	Week 12
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Morgan St.	41
North Carolina	Citadel	28
South Carolina	Western Carolina	30
Kentucky	Austin Peay	41
Alabama	Chattanooga	49
South Alabama	Presbyterian	30
Auburn	Alabama A&M	59

Bowl Projections

This week, we show 77 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  Three non-bowl eligible teams would thus be needed to fill in as alternates.  Of the three, only one team would have a 5-7 record, as the other two teams figure to be 6-6 with two FCS wins apiece.  Oddly, no at-large spots were needed other than the three alternate slots.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	UTSA
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Fla.	vs.	Idaho
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Memphis	vs.	Ohio U
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	vs.	Old Dominion
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Wyoming	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	vs.	Colorado St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Houston	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	Kansas St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Appy St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	La. Tech	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Temple	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Wake Forest	vs.	{Army}
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	Kentucky	vs.	{Boston Coll.}
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	{S. Alabama}	vs.	North Texas
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. C. State	vs.	South Florida
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Washington
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	Utah
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Auburn
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulsa	vs.	S. Carolina
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	Texas A&M
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	N.Carolina	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	W. Kentucky	vs.	Boise St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Indiana	vs.	Georgia
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Clemson	vs.	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Tennessee
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Georgia Tech	vs.	Ole Miss
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Wisconsin
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Ohio St.	vs.	Louisville
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Western Mich.	vs.	Colorado
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	Wash. St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	LSU
CFP Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
{Team}	Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team