The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Conference Championships

Sunday, January 23, 2011

3:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Green Bay Packers (12-6-0) at Chicago Bears (12-5-0)

Ratings

Pirate:       Green Bay 113.7           Chicago 104.1

Mean:        Green Bay 111.4           Chicago 103.8

Bias:           Green Bay 109.7          Chicago 104.5

HFA:                                                          Chicago     0.6

 

Vegas:        Green Bay by 3

Totals:       43 ½

 

PiRate:      GB by 9.0

Mean:        GB by 7.0

Bias:           GB by 4.6

 

100 Simulations:         GB 54  Chi 46

Avg. Sim Score              GB 20.2  Chi 17.9

Outlier A:                         GB 27  Chi 0

Outlier B:                         Chi 19  GB 3

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB – 4         Chi – 1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und – 3      Ovr – 2

6:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

New York Jets (13-5-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4-0)

 

Ratings

Pirate:       Pittsburgh 107.8         New York 106.1

Mean:        Pittsburgh 108.0        New York 106.8

Bias:           Pittsburgh 109.1         New York 106.7

HFA:          Pittsburgh     3.6

 

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 3 ½

Totals:       38 ½

 

PiRate:       Pit by 5.3

Mean:         Pit by 4.8

Bias:            Pit by 6.0

 

100 Simulations:         Pit 51  NYJ 49

Avg. Sim Score              Pit 24.2  NYJ 23.7

Outlier A:                         Pit 31  NYJ 13

Outlier B:                         NYJ 34  Pit 12

Note:                             Seven games decided in OT, including one that was decided with 2:17 left in the

second overtime

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Pit – 3        NYJ – 2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Ovr – 4       Und – 1

 

We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial picks for this week:

1. Green Bay & Chicago Under 21 ½ (Halftime Line)

2. Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago

3. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 19 ½ (Halftime Line)

4. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 38 ½

5. 10-point Teaser Parlay

1 Green Bay & Chicago OVER 33 ½

2 Green Bay +7 Chicago

3 Pittsburgh & New York Jets OVER 28 ½

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Divisional Round

NFL Playoffs—Divisional Round

Saturday, January 15, 2011 

4:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

Baltimore Ravens (13-4-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4-0)

 

Vegas:        Pit by 3

Totals:       37 

PiRate:       Pit by 1.4

Mean:         Pit by 3.8

Bias:           Pit by 4.7 

100 Simulations:         Pit 57  Bal 43

Avg. Sim Score             Pit 19.3  Bal 16.7

Outlier A:                     Pit 31  Bal 7

Outlier B:                     Bal 24  Pit 6

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Pit 4  Bal 1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Ovr-3         Und—2

 

8:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Green Bay Packers (11-6-0) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3-0) 

Vegas:        Atl by 2

Totals:       45 ½

 

PiRate:       GB by 2.2

Mean:         GB by 0.2

Bias:           GB by 0.7 

100 Simulations:         GB 61  Atl 39

Avg. Sim Score             GB 27.2  Atl 20.3

Outlier A:                     GB 33  Atl 14

Outlier B:                     Atl 30  GB 13 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB—4                    Atl—1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—3       Ovr—2       

 

Sunday, January 16, 2011

 

1:00 PM EST on Fox-TV

Seattle Seahawks (8-9-0) at Chicago Bears (11-5-0) 

Vegas:        Chi by 10

Totals:       40 

PiRate:       Chi by 11.3

Mean:         Chi by 11.7

Bias:           Chi by 9.0 

100 Simulations:         Chi 91  Sea 9

Avg. Sim Score             Chi 26.6  Sea 11.8

Outlier A:                     Chi 38  Sea 0

Outlier B:                     Sea 17  Chi 12

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Chi—4        Sea—1       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—3       Ovr—2       

 

4:30 PM EST on CBS-TV

New York Jets (12-5-0) at New England Patriots (14-2-0) 

Vegas:        NE by 8 ½

Totals:       45 ½  

PiRate:       NE by 14.8

Mean:         NE by 11.1

Bias:           NE by 2.2 

100 Simulations:         NE 82  NYJ 18

Avg. Sim Score             NE 26.7  NYJ 16.6

Outlier A:                     NE 34  NYJ 10

Outlier B:                     NYJ 24  NE 16 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   NE—3          NYJ—2       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Und—4       Ovr—1       

 

We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial–Recommended 13-point Teaser Parlays   

Parlay-1

Green Bay & Atlanta OVER 32 ½

Chicago & Seattle UNDER 53

Pittsburgh & Baltimore OVER 24

New England & New York Jets UNDER 58 ½

 

Parlay-2

Green Bay +15 vs. Atlanta

Chicago +3 vs. Seattle

Pittsburgh +10 vs. Baltimore

New England +4 ½ vs. New York Jets

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 3–September 26-27, 2010

Two weeks into the NFL season brings very few surprises.  Tampa Bay and Kansas City are 2-0, while Dallas and Minnesota are 0-2.  Overall, defenses are ahead of offenses on the whole, and it looks like very few teams will top 400 points this season.  The 3-4 defense with the zone blitz has stymied many quarterbacks, and we are seeing more 14-10 type games.  

We’ve noticed that punt returns are a dying art.  Punters are getting adequate hang time; more punts are being made that are not returnable, and players like Devin Hester are not getting the opportunity to return punts.

As we mentioned in the college ratings, our 10 and 13-point sweetheart teaser plays have been like gold to us so far.  If the scores continue to be lower than normal, these should continue to pay dividends for us.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase this week’s picks.  Deadline is 7 PM Eastern Time Wednesdays.  All purchases made after the deadline will be applied to the next week’s games.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	102.4	100.2	99.4	0-2-0	13.5	20.0
Philadelphia	100.8	100.5	102.2	1-1-0	27.5	29.5
New York Giants	100.0	99.8	100.1	1-1-0	22.5	28.0
Washington	99.4	99.9	101.8	1-1-0	20.0	18.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	106.6	107.7	108.4	2-0-0	30.5	13.5
Minnesota	103.5	103.2	102.7	0-2-0	9.5	14.0
Chicago	101.5	99.8	103.4	2-0-0	23.0	17.0
Detroit	92.5	92.4	92.9	0-2-0	23.0	27.0
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	106.0	104.9	105.3	1-1-0	25.0	11.0
New Orleans	104.8	106.3	106.5	2-0-0	19.5	15.5
Carolina	98.3	97.1	96.2	0-2-0	12.5	25.5
Tampa Bay	96.5	99.7	100.6	2-0-0	18.5	10.5
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	99.2	96.6	98.7	0-2-0	14.0	28.0
Arizona	96.2	95.6	96.1	1-1-0	12.0	27.0
Seattle	94.2	96.3	99.4	1-1-0	22.5	18.5
St. Louis	89.9	89.8	90.1	0-2-0	13.5	16.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	107.9	105.1	105.1	1-1-0	18.5	12.0
New England	105.0	102.9	102.9	1-1-0	26.0	26.0
Miami	102.8	102.6	101.8	2-0-0	14.5	10.0
Buffalo	95.2	94.5	91.5	0-2-0	8.5	24.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	105.3	103.7	103.7	1-1-0	10.0	12.0
Pittsburgh	102.3	105.0	105.2	2-0-0	17.0	10.0
Cincinnati	100.7	99.8	99.6	1-1-0	19.5	24.0
Cleveland	96.2	94.9	95.3	0-2-0	14.0	16.5
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.7	106.1	106.5	1-1-0	31.0	24.0
Houston	103.5	104.7	104.2	2-0-0	32.0	25.5
Tennessee	99.9	101.4	98.6	1-1-0	24.5	16.0
Jacksonville	95.6	96.3	94.3	1-1-0	18.5	27.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	102.5	104.4	100.3	1-1-0	26.0	17.0
Kansas City	97.7	99.1	98.9	2-0-0	18.5	14.0
Denver	97.0	98.3	96.8	1-1-0	24.0	19.0
Oakland	92.0	91.8	91.5	1-1-0	14.5	26.0

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 3: September 26-27, 2010
Vegas Line as of 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW YORK GIANTS	Tennessee	3.1	1.4	4.5	3	42
NEW ENGLAND	Buffalo	13.8	12.4	15.4	14	42 1/2
BALTIMORE	Cleveland	12.1	11.8	11.4	10 1/2	37
Bitmap Pittsburgh	TAMPA BAY	7.8	7.3	6.6	2 1/2	33
CAROLINA	Cincinnati	0.6	5.2	3.9	-3	38 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Atlanta	1.8	4.4	4.2	4	49 1/2
KANSAS CITY	San Francisco	0.5	4.5	2.2	-3	36 1/2
MINNESOTA	Detroit	15.0	14.8	13.8	11	42 1/2
HOUSTON	Dallas	3.1	6.5	6.8	3	47 1/2
Washington	ST. LOUIS	7.5	8.1	9.7	3 1/2	38
Philadelphia	JACKSONVILLE	2.2	1.2	4.9	3	44 1/2
Indianapolis	DENVER	4.7	4.8	6.7	5 1/2	48
San Diego	SEATTLE	6.3	6.1	-1.1	5 1/2	44
ARIZONA	Oakland	6.2	5.8	6.6	4	39
New York Jets	MIAMI	3.1	0.5	1.3	-2 1/2	34 1/2
Green Bay	CHICAGO	2.1	4.9	2.0	3	46

2010 PiRate Ratings NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

PiRate Ratings 2010 NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

 

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we were 60.6% against the spread in 2009!

 

The 2010 edition of the NFL PiRate Ratings makes its debut today, and we have tweaked the ratings just a bit this season.  Every year, we evaluate every team’s ability to run the ball, pass the ball, defend the run, defend the pass, and all the special teams play.

 

Breaking down the run, we look at the offensive blocking for the run, the ability of the team to run up the gut and pick up two yards on 3rd & two, the ability to get outside and pick up a lot of yards, and so forth.  To us, it is more important to know the situation of each running play rather than the raw average.  If a team has a 1st & Ten at its own 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for eight, ten, four, two, and two yards, that team has averaged 5.2 yards per rush, but that team must now punt on 4th & two at their 46 yard line.

 

If that same team starts at its 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for four yards on every play, that team has averaged just four yards per rush, but they now have a 3rd & two—a much better proposition than 4th & two.

 

We break down the pass in a similar way.  We look at pass protection, passer ability, and pass receiving ability.  Passing percentage matters very little (virtually nothing).  Yardage gained and maintaining possession of the ball are all that matters.    

 

Of course, for every offensive action, there is a corresponding defensive action that we rate.  This year, we have given a little more weight to pass rush over pass coverage.  Sacks and hurries are becoming more influential in today’s short passing game offenses.  If you look at a typical game today, 80% of the passes thrown in the NFL are thrown to receivers/backs less than 10 yards pass the line of scrimmage.  The three and five-step drop have displaced the seven-step drop and longer passes.  Most longer passes today are of the play-action variety.  Of course, the 3rd & 20 situation still leads to the longer pass plays. 

 

With so many shorter passing routes against two-deep coverage, the pass rush deserves a little more weight at the expense of the pass coverage.  We are not talking about a major shift; this is more like a fraction of points, or what we call moving the minute hand on our watch by a minute to synchronize it with Coordinated Universal Time.

 

For those of you who are new to the PiRate Ratings, these ratings are only good for the current week’s games.  Since the season actually does not begin for a couple weeks, we may tweak them in the next 10-12 days once all cuts and late free-agent pickups are made. 

 

Additionally, we advise you not to use our raw ratings to pick games.  We offer picks against the spread at our sister site, www.piratings.webs.com, and we NEVER use the raw ratings.  If every scheduled game was played 100 times, then the ratings would be quite accurate.  We look at several variables and intangibles in addition to the pointspread to analyze each game and try to find a favorable angle that “gives” us an extra point or two.

 

You will see three ratings for each team: The PiRate, The Mean, and The Bias Rating.  Each rating is based on 100 being level par.  If a team has a rating of 103.7, then consider that team 3.7 points better than average. 

 

The PiRate is the raw score we give each team based on all the variables we discussed above (running, passing, etc.).  The Mean Rating is a separate rating of 12 variables that we have used since 1979.  It is purely statistical based on many of the same variables used for the PiRate Rating.  We take the exact average of those 12 variables and use a constant and a multiplier to produce a par of 100.  The Bias Rating takes those same 12 variables and gives each rating a different weight in the formula.  All three ratings have been quite accurate through the years. 

 

Here are the preseason ratings for the 32 teams.  Each week, the teams will be ranked by division in order of PiRate Rating.  We do not calculate an average of these three ratings, but you can if you want to. 

Initial Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	104.5	106.3	106.9	0-0-0	0	0
Philadelphia	101.7	104.1	98.7	0-0-0	0	0
New York Giants	100.0	99.9	102.3	0-0-0	0	0
Washington	98.3	96.1	95.8	0-0-0	0	0
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota	104.8	108.0	107.9	0-0-0	0	0
Green Bay	104.1	106.7	105.7	0-0-0	0	0
Chicago	100.5	97.3	98.9	0-0-0	0	0
Detroit	92.1	88.1	89.4	0-0-0	0	0
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans	105.2	109.8	106.6	0-0-0	0	0
Atlanta	104.7	103.5	104.6	0-0-0	0	0
Carolina	101.6	103.6	100.4	0-0-0	0	0
Tampa Bay	94.3	94.5	92.3	0-0-0	0	0
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	101.6	100.8	102.2	0-0-0	0	0
Arizona	98.5	100.3	99.1	0-0-0	0	0
Seattle	92.2	91.1	94.8	0-0-0	0	0
St. Louis	90.1	85.9	87.3	0-0-0	0	0
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	107.3	106.3	106.2	0-0-0	0	0
New England	105.7	106.5	105.4	0-0-0	0	0
Miami	101.1	100.4	100.8	0-0-0	0	0
Buffalo	97.6	97.4	95.9	0-0-0	0	0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	105.6	106.3	106.5	0-0-0	0	0
Pittsburgh	100.9	102.2	101.8	0-0-0	0	0
Cincinnati	100.3	100.0	99.4	0-0-0	0	0
Cleveland	97.3	93.2	93.2	0-0-0	0	0
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	106.8	107.1	0-0-0	0	0
Houston	102.0	101.9	101.9	0-0-0	0	0
Tennessee	97.9	99.3	101.2	0-0-0	0	0
Jacksonville	96.3	94.8	97.0	0-0-0	0	0
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	102.5	106.0	104.6	0-0-0	0	0
Denver	96.6	99.3	98.5	0-0-0	0	0
Kansas City	95.7	92.3	94.5	0-0-0	0	0
Oakland	94.2	91.4	92.8	0-0-0	0	0

 

The following predictions are not based on the above ratings.  Remember, these ratings are not usable to select future games.  They are not even 100% affected by the scores of each week’s games.  For instance, San Diego would be considered a 6.8-point favorite in the PiRate Ratings over Kansas City in a neutral-site game (before intangibles and other variables).  Even if San Diego won 24-17, their PiRate rating would be adjusted based on how they won by a touchdown.  Suppose the Chiefs led 17-10 with five minutes to go in the game and had a 100-yard advantage, and the Chargers blocked two punts and recovered them in the end zone for touchdowns.  Or, what if the Chargers led 24-3 after three quarters but then lost their three linebackers to season-ending injuries?  The ratings would change drastically depending on how this 24-17 score occurred.

These predictions are our own personal opinions on how we think the season will pan out.  Take them for what it is worth.

NFC East	W	–	L		AFC East	W	–	L
Dallas	10	–	6		New England	10	–	6
New York	9	–	7		Miami	10	–	6
Philadelphia	7	–	9		New York	9	–	7
Washington	6	–	10		Buffalo	4	–	12
NFC South	W	–	L		AFC South	W	–	L
New Orleans	13	–	3		Indianapolis	12	–	4
Atlanta	10	–	6		Tennessee	9	–	7
Carolina	7	–	9		Houston	8	–	8
Tampa Bay	4	–	12		Jacksonville	5	–	11
NFC North	W	–	L		AFC North	W	–	L
Green Bay	12	–	4		Baltimore	13	–	3
Chicago	9	–	7		Pittsburgh	9	–	7
Minnesota	9	–	7		Cincinnati	8	–	8
Detroit	5	–	11		Cleveland	3	–	13
NFC West	W	–	L		AFC West	W	–	L
San Francisco	9	–	7		San Diego	10	–	6
Arizona	7	–	9		Oakland	7	–	9
Seattle	6	–	10		Denver	7	–	9
St. Louis	3	–	13		Kansas City	6	–	10
Wildcard Playoffs					Wildcard Playoffs
San Diego over Tennessee					Dallas over Chicago
Miami over New England					Atlanta over San Francisco
Divisional Playoffs					Divisional Playoffs
Baltimore over Miami					New Orleans over Atlanta
San Diego over Indianapolis					Green Bay over Dallas
AFC Championship					NFC Championship
Baltimore over San Diego					Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl
Baltimore over Green Bay

Sunday’s Regional Final Games

Sunday’s Regional Finals

Advanced Level Bracketnomics

 

The PiRate NCAA Tournament Criteria Formula worked like a charm in Friday night’s regional semifinal games.  Let’s see how it applies to Sunday’s regional final games.

South Regional

 

#1 Duke (30.48) vs. #3 Baylor (26.04)

We have been split whether to issue Baylor a partial home court advantage for this game, but we have decided to leave it as a 100% neutral game.  Baylor will have more fans for sure, but it won’t be like it would be if Duke were playing Kentucky in Nashville or Indianapolis.  The advantage for Baylor will be negligible.

Both teams in this game have crucial assets that prove to be winning tickets in games of this magnitude.  For Baylor, the Bears hit over 48% of their field goal attempts and give up less than 38%.  They have a scoring margin in double digits, and they control the boards by more than five per game.

For Duke, the Blue Devils outscore their opposition by 16 points per game and outrebound them by almost six per game.  The Dukies enjoy one of the best R+T* ratings in the nation, coming in at 11.64.  This number is so high because not only is their rebounding margin great, their turnover margin is also terrific at +3.7.  When a team consistently wins the battle of the boards and the turnover margin by healthy amounts, they have to really throw up bricks and give up easy layups to lose.

The two teams’ strengths of schedule are a wash—there isn’t even a half-point’s difference.  This game should be a see-saw affair with neither team pulling away until maybe the final minutes.  We’re going to stick with our pre-tournament favorite to win it all and take Coach K and company to earn the trip to Indianapolis.

Prediction: Duke 70  Baylor 63

 

Midwest Regional

 

#5 Michigan State (20.92) vs. #6 Tennessee (21.16)

Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl faced a serious dilemma when he dismissed star forward Tyler Smith from the squad at the end of December.  His team also played a couple weeks without the services of three other players.  Yet, the Volunteers upset undefeated and number one Kansas in their next game.  While fans and media were expecting the orange and white to crumble to a losing SEC record, Pearl changed their style of play to a more conservative approach and guided the Vols to double-digit wins in the conference.  This marks the farthest Tennessee has ever advanced in the Big Dance.

Michigan State under Coach Tom Izzo has made a habit of making it this far and farther.  The Spartans made it to the Championship Game last year.  Now, Izzo is facing the same dilemma Pearl faced in December.  He must get by without the services of his top player—Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans edged Northern Iowa in their first game without Lucas, but they face a team in the regional finals that will definitely exploit Lucas’s loss.  Tennessee can pressure the perimeter in the frontcourt and force MSU to work the shot clock to its final seconds.  The Spartans will have to force up some shots against the Volunteers’ defense.

Michigan State can still win this game if the Spartans shoot 38%.  They will definitely win the rebounding battle in this game.  However, Tennessee will force more turnovers and pick up a couple of cheapie baskets.  It is more likely that the Vols will enjoy some type of scoring spurt in this game.  Since it is most likely to be a limited possession game, just one spurt of eight to 10 points will be enough to advance Pearl’s club to the school’s first Final Four bid in history.

Prediction: Tennessee 64  Michigan State 59

 

* For an explanation of R+T as well as the rest of the PiRate Criteria, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2010/03/14/bracketnomics-505-how-to-pick-your-ncaa-tournament-brackets/

 

 

Coming Thursday: An in-depth look at the Final Four with expanded coverage.  We will have a one-stop look at the four teams, including rosters, statistics, schedules, the entire PiRate formulas, and of course, our predictions.

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings: January 4, 2010

PLAYOFFS!!! DO TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!

With Apologies to Jim Mora, Sr.

 

The folks at ESPN and other networks carrying the college bowls need to look at their ratings for these meaningless games they have been carrying for the last couple of weeks.  Take a look at the ratings for this coming weekend’s playoff games.  The Alamo Bowl and Gator Bowl equivalents will be played this weekend and known as the Wildcard Playoff Round.  Both of those bowls had a news angle to them.  Bobby Bowden coached in his final game in the Gator Bowl, and Texas Tech minus Coach Mike Leach played in the Alamo Bowl.  I didn’t watch either game, as the baseball book I read Friday and Saturday was much more entertaining. 

Note: If you want to be floored by just how much a drop-dead gorgeous actress knows about baseball, read Alyssa Milano’s new book Safe at Home. She just picked up a new customer, as I will be purchasing Twins’ clothing for my female relatives on their next birthdays.

 

The irony of this week’s opening slate of playoff games is that three of the four games are sequels of yesterday’s week 17 games.  Arizona and Green Bay will hook up again in Phoenix and Dallas and Philadelphia will do it over again in Arlington, Texas.  The Jets and Bengals will be a little more democratic than the other two games; they will switch venues from the Meadowlands to Paul Brown Stadium.

At first glance, this seems to make these games less electrifying, since the teams will play two games in a row, and in less than a week in the case of the two Saturday games (Jets-Bengals & Cowboys-Eagles).  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It will add to the excitement.  Football is a lot more than just blood and guts.  It is perhaps the one sport that is affected by coaching strategy than any other.  It is a chess game with human pieces.

Imagine how much different the games would be if the coaches were forced to share their game plans in advance.  In the case of Philadelphia and Dallas, this game meant a lot as homefield advantage and a possible bye were riding on the outcome.  Both teams had to show the other team everything they had in preparation for this game, and now both teams have one less day to prepare for the rematch. 

Cincinnati had little to play for against the Jets, so they benefitted from getting a good luck at everything Coach Rex Ryan’s team had, since the Jets had to win the game.  Think of it as one team getting to see the other team’s game plan.  Even with Cincinnati swooning in the second half of the season, one has to believe this repeat game gives the Bengals twice the homefield advantage of a normal NFL game.

Green Bay and Arizona really didn’t gain much repeat advantage when the two squared off yesterday.  In this case, it was the devastating results of personnel injuries.  The Packers saw ace defensive back Charles Woodson go down with a shoulder injury, while Arizona saw star receiver Anquan Boldin leave the game with an ankle injury; defensive end Calais Campbell suffered a broken thumb, and defensive back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie injured his knee.  Even if these four players can play again this week, none will be at 100%.

The one game that isn’t a rematch of week 17 finds Baltimore going to New England.  Both of these teams are talented enough to run the table and get a ticker tape parade in February.

Now, throw into the equation that the two AFC games will have serious weather issues this weekend.  It’s still too early to know for sure, but it looks like the Bengals-Jets game will be played in temperatures around 20 degrees with a chance of snow.  The Patriots-Ravens game should have clear skies, but the temperature should be in the upper teens.  When it’s this cold, it becomes much more difficult to pass and catch the ball and slightly more difficult to hold onto the ball on running plays and field kicks.  In the old days, players would just put enough “stick-em” on their hands to become a ball magnet.  The leather gets really slippery when the temperature dips below 25. 

For those of you who have chosen to purchase our weekly picks on the webpage (www.piratings.webs.com), we will have a different approach for the playoffs.  We concluded the regular season with a 5-2 record for the week, and that brought our seasonal record to 94-61-2 (60.6%).  For the NFL playoffs, we will offer a $10 package that is good for all playoff games.  Instead of giving you an exact card to play, we will diagnose every game and give you the PiRate Rating predicted score, the Mean Rating predicted score, the Bias Rating predicted score, and the infamous 100 simulations results from the research lab computer that proved that garbage in, garbage out isn’t always the case.  If you want to know more about the 100 simulations playoff results, check in on last year’s Super Bowl blog here: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/pirate-ratings-super-bowl-43-preview/ .  You will find the computer simulator was very accurate in the 2008-2009 playoffs.  Check it out on the webpage at “Playoff Winners: $10.

NFL Regular Season Epilog

 

The NFL regular season concluded with a couple of important games, while the other games proved to be about as important as the Sun Bowl.  Here are some points to ponder.

1. The Cincinnati Bengals finished the season 3-4.  They averaged only 15.8 points per game in the nine weeks after their bye week.  They gave up 26 points per game in their final four games.  Is this the look of a playoff team?  Cleveland looked more like the playoff team, winning their final four games by an average of 8.5 points per game.

2. Denver has swooned for the second year in a row.  Second verse was same as the first.  A fast start, a mediocre middle, and an 0-4 conclusion saw the Broncos eliminated from the playoffs yet again.  The 44-24 loss to the Chiefs capped a 2-8 finish after a 6-0 start.  During the 2009 flop, the Broncos were outscored 258-193 and lost to both Kansas City and Oakland, as well as lowly Washington.  The Broncos could finish in last place in the AFC West in 2010, as they will have a harder schedule than the Raiders and Chiefs.

3. The New York Giants began the season 5-0 and finished 8-8.   Their defense gave up 14.2 points per game in the 5-0 start and 32.4 points per game in the 3-8 finish.

4. The Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers were the opposites of the Broncos and Giants.  Carolina found itself in an 0-3 hole and slowly climbed back to finish 8-8.  Tennessee began 0-6 and finished 8-2 with Vince Young at quarterback.

5. The two hottest teams in the league are the Chargers and Packers.  While New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Minnesota were hogging the headlines, San Diego won their last 11 games by more than a 13-point average margin.  Included in this string were victories over three playoff teams—Philadelphia, Dallas, and Cincinnati.  Green Bay found itself in a hole after losing to then winless Tampa Bay and falling to 4-4.  In the second half of the season, the Packers finished 7-1 with an average scoring margin of 30.8 to 15.6.

6. Speaking of Indy and New Orleans, no team has every won the Super Bowl after beginning the year with a 10+-game winning streak and tailing off at the end of the year.  Look at last year’s Titans.  They were 10-0 and finished 13-3.  The Titans promptly exited in their first playoff game and then saw it mount to an 0-6 start this season.  You may ask when was the last time a team lost its final two (as in the Colts) or three (as in the Saints) games of the regular season and then won the Super Bowl?  The Green Bay Packers of 1967 dropped their final two regular season games and then won Super Bowl II.  No team has ever lost their last three regular season games and won the Super Bowl.  In fact, going back to the pre-Super Bowl days, no team has every won the league championship after losing their final three regular season games.

7. There has been a consistent predictor of NFL playoff winners over the course of four plus decades.  Almost every NFL Champion since 1960 has possessed a trio of shared traits.  Of course, it’s not that easy.  In many years, three or more teams possessed these traits.  However, in only a couple of years did the champion not possess the traits we speak of.  If you want to know what these traits are, you’ll have to sign up for our postseason coverage at www.piratings.webs.com.  $10 will buy you analysis on every playoff game.

Final Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas		106.3	107.4	107.2	11-5-0	361	250
Philadelphia		105.1	105.3	105.3	11-5-0	429	337
New York Giants		98.8	99.6	99.9	8-8-0	402	427
Washington		96.9	96.2	95.3	4-12-0	266	336
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay		108.2	108.3	108.3	11-5-0	461	297
Minnesota		106.3	106.6	106.4	12-4-0	470	312
Chicago		97.1	97.2	98.5	7-9-0	327	375
Detroit		87.8	87.6	86.9	2-14-0	262	494
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		106.9	107.3	106.1	13-3-0	510	341
Carolina		106.1	103.7	103.4	8-8-0	315	308
Atlanta		103.9	103.6	103.6	9-7-0	363	325
Tampa Bay		94.3	94.5	95.0	3-13-0	244	400
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco		102.3	101.3	101.6	8-8-0	330	281
Arizona		101.3	99.9	102.3	10-6-0	375	325
Seattle		88.0	90.5	90.6	5-11-0	280	390
St. Louis		84.4	85.5	84.6	1-15-0	175	436
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		107.8	107.8	106.4	10-6-0	427	285
NY Jets		105.1	106.7	105.6	9-7-0	348	236
Miami		97.9	99.8	99.2	7-9-0	360	390
Buffalo		95.4	97.7	97.1	6-10-0	258	326
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		108.8	105.9	105.6	9-7-0	391	261
Pittsburgh		104.3	101.8	103.9	9-7-0	368	324
Cincinnati		98.8	99.7	101.7	10-6-0	305	291
Cleveland		94.9	96.7	98.0	5-11-0	245	375
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		107.3	104.4	106.2	14-2-0	416	307
Houston		103.3	101.9	103.1	9-7-0	388	333
Tennessee		100.4	98.5	101.8	8-8-0	354	402
Jacksonville		93.7	94.2	97.2	7-9-0	290	380
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		111.5	106.8	109.3	13-3-0	454	320
Denver		95.3	99.3	99.8	8-8-0	326	324
Oakland		92.8	91.6	92.9	5-11-0	197	379
Kansas City		91.4	92.6	92.3	4-12-0	294	424

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 17: January 3, 2010

NFL Week 17 Preview

Warning: Electrifying Playoffs Ahead!!!

 

All of a sudden what seemed to be an ironclad cut and dry Super Bowl between New Orleans and Indianapolis now looks like it could just as easily be Green Bay and The Jets.  Parity has come along late in the season, and the best teams no longer look unbeatable, while some of the worst may be among the best.

The Saints have dropped consecutive games.  Only one other time in NFL history has a team been undefeated until three games to go and then lost all three.  The 1969 Los Angeles Rams opened 11-0 before losing their final three games.  They promptly lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Vikings a possible playoff opponent in the second round if Minnesota and Philadelphia lose this week while Arizona wins.

The six NFC playoff teams are known.  New Orleans has secured the top spot.  Philadelphia currently holds down the number two seed, but the Eagles must win at Dallas to keep it. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota if both teams finish 12-4.  Should Dallas beat Philadelphia, the Vikings hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys.  Should Dallas win and Minnesota lose, Arizona could take the second seed with a win over Green Bay.  Dallas would get the bye only if they beat Philadelphia and both Minnesota and Arizona lost.

Green Bay holds the tiebreaker edge over Dallas if they finish tied in the wildcard position.  They could possibly play at Arizona in consecutive weeks, which would be quite interesting.

The AFC is a big mess.  And, to make matters worse, some of the larger websites are wrong on which teams control their own destiny.  If you have read that Denver is in with a win, then you have been victimized by shoddy information.

The two AFC teams in control of their own destiny are New York and Baltimore.  Denver needs help to make the playoffs even though if the playoffs started today, they would be in.  The problem is this week’s schedule changes to formula.  So, The Jets and Ravens are the teams who get in if they win.

Denver can get in with a win and losses or ties by either Baltimore or Pittsburgh; or a loss by the Jets and a Houston win.  If the Broncos lose, then they would make the playoffs with a slew of losses by other teams (more than we can list and so improbable that there is no reason to list).

Houston can clinch a playoff spot with a win and at two from among Baltimore, Denver, and The Jets lose and/or tie.

Pittsburgh can make the playoffs with a win and: Houston and either Jets or Ravens lose and/or tie;  or Jets, Baltimore and Denver lose and/or tie.

Miami and Jacksonville can only get to 8-8 with wins, and too many things must happen for either to qualify.  For the Dolphins to sneak in, they must beat Pittsburgh and then have the Jets, Ravens, and Texans lose and Jacksonville lose or tie.  Jacksonville needs a win over Cleveland plus losses by four more teams (several combinations but most include Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Denver).

New England holds the tiebreaker over Cincinnati in the battle for the third seed.

Looking at this week’s closing schedule, the Jets and the Ravens have tough opponents, but both teams should win if they play up to their capacity.  Oakland knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs last year, but we cannot see the Raiders beating the hard-nosed Ravens.  The Jets face Cincinnati at home, and the Bengals may be the weakest division winner in several years. 

If things go the way the PiRate Ratings say they should, here’s how the playoffs should look:

Wildcard Round

NFC

#6 Dallas at #3 Minnesota

#5 Green Bay at #4 Arizona

 

AFC

#6 Baltimore at #3 New England

#5 New York Jets at #4 Cincinnati

 

Divisional Round

 

NFC

#1 New Orleans hosts lower remaining seed

#2 Philadelphia hosts higher remaining seed

 

AFC

#1 Indianapolis hosts lower remaining seed

#2 San Diego hosts higher remaining seed

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		106.4	106.5	107.6	11-4-0	429	313
Dallas		105.0	104.4	105.7	10-5-0	337	250
New York Giants		100.9	101.1	101.9	8-7-0	395	383
Washington		95.3	96.0	91.3	4-11-0	246	313
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay		106.2	105.7	106.8	10-5-0	428	290
Minnesota		104.2	106.1	105.3	11-4-0	426	305
Chicago		96.1	96.6	96.4	6-9-0	290	352
Detroit		88.8	88.5	84.9	2-13-0	239	457
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		108.1	109.9	108.0	13-2-0	500	318
Carolina		104.9	100.3	100.7	7-8-0	292	298
Atlanta		103.2	102.0	103.1	8-7-0	343	315
Tampa Bay		95.0	93.1	93.1	3-12-0	234	380
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.3	102.4	104.4	10-5-0	368	292
San Francisco		100.0	101.5	99.4	7-8-0	302	275
Seattle		87.2	91.9	89.5	5-10-0	267	373
St. Louis		86.7	86.6	86.5	1-14-0	169	408
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		108.6	108.7	107.3	10-5-0	400	251
NY Jets		103.3	104.7	104.2	8-7-0	311	236
Miami		99.1	101.0	100.9	7-8-0	336	360
Buffalo		94.3	95.9	94.1	5-10-0	228	319
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.5	106.5	105.8	8-7-0	370	248
Pittsburgh		103.1	100.7	104.0	8-7-0	338	300
Cincinnati		100.6	101.6	103.1	10-5-0	305	254
Cleveland		94.2	91.8	94.4	4-11-0	222	358
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		108.4	108.6	109.6	14-1-0	409	277
Houston		102.5	102.2	103.0	8-7-0	354	306
Tennessee		101.2	100.1	102.3	7-8-0	337	389
Jacksonville		94.4	95.8	98.3	7-8-0	273	357
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		109.9	106.6	108.9	12-3-0	431	300
Denver		98.3	102.2	102.2	8-7-0	302	280
Oakland		92.1	90.9	90.8	5-10-0	184	358
Kansas City		88.4	90.4	86.4	3-12-0	250	400

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 17 = 2.4
Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Indianapolis	BUFFALO	11.7	10.3	13.1	NL	NL
New Orleans	CAROLINA	0.8	7.2	4.9	NL	NL
CLEVELAND	Jacksonville	2.2	-1.6	-1.5	Pk	37
DALLAS	Philadelphia	1.0	0.3	0.5	3	47
Chicago	DETROIT	4.9	5.7	9.1	3	45
New England	HOUSTON	3.7	4.1	1.9	-8	46
Pittsburgh	MIAMI	1.6	-2.7	0.7	NL	NL
MINNESOTA	New York Giants	5.7	7.4	5.8	8 1/2	48
NEW YORK JETS	Cincinnati	5.1	5.5	3.5	10	35
San Francisco	ST. LOUIS	10.9	12.5	10.5	7 1/2	40 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.8	6.5	7.6	3	41 1/2
Green Bay	ARIZONA	0.5	0.9	0.0	3 1/2	43 1/2
DENVER	Kansas City	12.3	14.2	18.2	13	38
Baltimore	OAKLAND	15.0	13.2	12.3	10 1/2	38
SAN DIEGO	Washington	17.0	13.0	20.0	3 1/2	38 1/2
Tennessee	SEATTLE	11.6	5.8	10.4	4	44

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 16: December 25-28, 2009

Week 16 NFL Preview

 

It’s crunch time in the NFL, so there’s no need to begin with some flashy witticism or catch phrase.  Let’s just dig right in with what is important—the playoffs.

In the NFC, New Orleans has clinched a first-round bye and needs only a win or tie or a Viking loss or tie to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  They will be the number one seed.

Minnesota has clinched the North, while Arizona has clinched the West.  Philadelphia clinches the East with one more win and a Dallas loss or tie, or of course, two wins.

The Wildcard race is not much of a nail-biter, as only three teams are left to compete for the two spots.  Green Bay and Dallas, both at 9-5, hold a one-game lead over the Giants.  7-7 Atlanta has been eliminated.

Dallas closes at Washington and at home with Philadelphia.  If the Redskins can upset their rival this weekend, the Cowboys could wind up the odd team out.  The Giants finish at home against Carolina and at Minnesota, and if they split those games, they hold the tiebreaker over Dallas. 

Green Bay should clinch a playoff spot this weekend when they host Seattle.  The Packers finish at Arizona.

The AFC is a little more muddled than the NFC.  Indianapolis is the number one seed and gets homefield advantage through the playoffs.  San Diego has clinched the West.  Cincinnati needs one more win or one Baltimore loss to clinch the North, while New England is one win or one Miami loss away from clinching the East (The Jets cannot win the division).

Denver and Baltimore, both at 8-6, hold a one-game lead over six other teams (Miami, NY Jets, Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh.)  Obviously if just two teams finish 9-7, those teams will be the Wildcards.  That’s not going to happen.

Denver closes at Philadelphia and at home against Kansas City.  The won’t lose to the Chiefs, so they will be at least 9-7.  Baltimore has a slightly harder road, as they finish on the road at Pittsburgh and the surging Raiders.  The Ravens should win at least one of these games to finish 9-7.

Miami finishes at home against Houston and Pittsburgh, and these will be playoff eliminators.  The Jets have a difficult closing schedule at Indianapolis and at home with Cincinnati.  We don’t see them finishing 9-7.

Tennessee hosts San Diego on Christmas night and finishes at Seattle.  The Titans and Chargers are the two best current AFC teams after Indy, and it should be a great game.  If the Titans win and then knock off lowly Seattle, they will have done the unthinkable and finished 9-7 after starting 0-6.  Jacksonville has a tough game at New England and finishes at home with Cleveland.  We see 8-8 in their future.

In the end, we believe Baltimore and Denver will hold on to take the two Wildcard spots.

If this scenario holds out, here’s how the first round would look January 9 and 10.

NFC

#6 Dallas at #3 Philadelphia

#5 Green Bay at #4 Arizona

 

AFC

#6 Denver at #3 New England

#5 Baltimore at #4 Cincinnati

 

We would go with Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England, and Baltimore to win those games, setting up this scenario the following week.

NFC

#5 Green Bay at #1 New Orleans

#3 Philadelphia at #2 Minnesota

 

AFC

#5 Baltimore at #1 Indianapolis

#3 New England at #2 San Diego

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		107.0	106.8	107.3	10-4-0	399	286
Dallas		104.3	104.3	106.2	9-5-0	320	250
New York Giants		104.1	102.8	103.5	8-6-0	386	342
Washington		96.0	97.3	94.2	4-10-0	246	296
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		106.3	105.7	106.9	11-3-0	396	269
Green Bay		103.7	104.4	106.1	9-5-0	380	280
Chicago		94.0	95.6	93.4	5-9-0	254	322
Detroit		88.8	88.1	86.1	2-12-0	233	437
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		110.8	109.5	108.6	13-1-0	483	298
Carolina		101.7	99.8	98.8	6-8-0	251	289
Atlanta		101.2	100.7	101.9	7-7-0	312	312
Tampa Bay		92.3	93.1	91.4	2-12-0	214	363
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.1	102.3	103.8	9-5-0	337	282
San Francisco		100.0	101.0	98.1	6-8-0	282	269
Seattle		89.7	92.9	92.0	5-9-0	257	325
St. Louis		86.9	87.9	84.5	1-13-0	159	377
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		107.5	107.3	106.9	9-5-0	365	244
NY Jets		101.8	102.8	102.4	7-7-0	282	221
Miami		100.5	100.7	101.7	7-7-0	316	333
Buffalo		96.3	96.9	95.9	5-9-0	225	288
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		110.7	106.3	107.3	8-6-0	350	225
Pittsburgh		101.9	100.3	101.9	7-7-0	315	280
Cincinnati		101.8	101.4	102.7	9-5-0	288	244
Cleveland		92.6	92.5	91.9	3-11-0	199	349
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		109.9	107.8	109.2	14-0-0	394	248
Tennessee		103.4	101.7	104.3	7-7-0	320	347
Houston		101.1	101.5	101.4	7-7-0	327	286
Jacksonville		95.5	97.9	100.2	7-7-0	266	322
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		107.7	106.2	107.3	11-3-0	389	283
Denver		97.7	101.0	102.4	8-6-0	275	250
Oakland		93.7	92.7	94.0	5-9-0	175	335
Kansas City		87.2	90.8	87.5	3-11-0	240	383

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 16 = 2.5
Vegas Line as of 12:30PM EDT Tuesday
Friday, December 25
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
San Diego	TENNESSEE	1.8	2.0	0.5	-3	47
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
GREEN BAY	Seattle	16.5	14.0	16.6	14	42
CLEVELAND	Oakland	1.4	2.3	0.4	3 1/2	38
CINCINNATI	Kansas City	17.1	13.1	17.7	13 1/2	40 1/2
ATLANTA	Buffalo	7.4	6.3	8.5	9	41
MIAMI	Houston	1.9	1.7	2.8	3	45
NEW YORK GIANTS	Carolina	4.9	5.5	7.2	7	42
NEW ORLEANS	Tampa Bay	21.0	18.9	19.7	14	49
NEW ENGLAND	Jacksonville	14.5	11.9	9.2	7 1/2	43 1/2
Baltimore	PITTSBURGH	6.3	3.5	2.9	-2 1/2	41
PHILADELPHIA	Denver	11.8	8.3	7.4	7	41 1/2
ARIZONA	St. Louis	18.7	16.9	21.8	14	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Detroit	13.7	15.4	14.5	12 1/2	41 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	New York Jets	10.6	7.5	9.3	5	40 1/2
Dallas	WASHINGTON	5.8	4.5	9.5	7	42
Monday, December 28, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Minnesota	CHICAGO	9.8	7.6	11.0	7	41

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 15: December 17-21, 2009

Week 15 NFL Preview

PiRate Picks Go A Perfect 7-0!

 

We’re quite happy here at the PiRate Ratings this week.  Our picks against the spread (available for just $5 a week at www.piratings.webs.com), finished a perfect 7-0 last week bringing our record for the season to 86-48-2, 64.2%.  Our two-week record is 11-1, and we’ve basically used the same strategy both weeks.

This week, the NFL schedule presents the viewer with a basket of lemons.  There are some rather lousy games on tap: Arizona-Detroit, Chicago-Baltimore, Kansas City-Cleveland, Houston-St. Louis, and Seattle-Tampa Bay.  However, to the investor, sometimes, these games become hidden gems.

Throw in the college bowl season’s first offerings, and there are still options to consider this week.

The playoff chase is becoming interesting in the AFC, where the 6-win teams are still very much in the hunt.  In the NFC, the Packers are virtually a shoo-in now as a Wildcard team, but the final spot is still up for grabs.  Dallas holds the upper hand today, but with three very tough finishing games, the Cowboys cannot even be considered the favorite for that spot.  Now, if Dallas can somehow pull off the big upset this weekend in New Orleans, then it may be the end of the chase in the NFC.

Here is the way we at the PiRate Ratings see the playoffs shaping up. 

NFC East

 

Philadelphia is 9-4 and should win 11 games to take the title.

Dallas is 8-5, but could easily lose their last three games.  We see them finishing 9-7.

New York is 7-6 and absolutely must win at Washington Monday night.  If they get by the Redskins, they should beat Carolina, but the finale at Minnesota could be tough unless the Vikings have nothing to play for.  We can see the Giants finishing 9-7.

NFC South

 

The Saints have this race in hand and will have home field advantage for the NFC playoffs.

Atlanta is 6-7 and must win their final three games to have a chance.  All three games left are winnable, but the Falcons have not had much luck with injuries this year.  We believe they will lose at least once more and be eliminated.

NFC North

 

Minnesota has secured the title, and Green Bay will secure a wildcard spot with one more win, which they will get either this week or next.

NFC West

 

Arizona still holds a two-game lead over San Francisco with three to play, so we will pick the Cardinals to repeat as champs.

San Francisco is 6-7.  They have to win at Philadelphia this week, to benefit from closing with Detroit and St. Louis.  We don’t see Mike Singletary’s club winning at Philly this weekend.

AFC East

 

This race is still up for grabs.  New England owns just a one-game lead over Miami and the Jets, and the Patriots have lost all their true away games this year.  With two more away games to play, the Pats could be looking at 9-7, which would open the door.

Miami has topped .500 at 7-6, and they visit Tennessee this week in a death match.  The loser can look to next year.  If the Dolphins prevail, they finish with two winnable home games and could win the division.  We think 9-7 is what Miami fans should expect.  The Dolphins hold the tiebreaker advantage over New England, so we believe they can win the division at 9-7 if the Pats blow it this week at Buffalo.

The Jets are also 7-6.  They host Atlanta in another death match game.  However, they must still go to Indy next week and host Cincinnati in week 17.  It looks bleak for Jets’ fans.

AFC South

 

It’s all about who will finish second in this division, as the only intrigue with the title is whether the Colts can run the table.

Jacksonville is 7-6 and the leader in the clubhouse for the final wildcard spot.  They host Indianapolis this week, and they almost beat the Colts at Indy earlier this year.  They finish at New England and at Cleveland, so the Jags could be looking at 8-8, which would put them out.

Houston is 6-7 and needs too many things to happen to qualify, least of which is winning their final three games at St. Louis, at Miami, and versus New England.  They will be lucky to finish 8-8 for the third straight year.

Tennessee is 6-7 after beginning 0-6.  They also need too many things to happen to be considered a legitimate contender.  If they defeat Miami at home this week, they still must beat San Diego at home next week and win at Seattle.  It looks like 8-8 is their best possibility as well.

AFC North

 

Cincinnati is on the verge of securing the division title, but the Bengals are the most likely division winner to lose to a wildcard in the opening round.

Baltimore is 7-6, and the Ravens are the one team the division winners don’t want to face in the first round.  Baltimore should manhandle the Bears this week to set up a death match game at Pittsburgh.  A season finale at Oakland could be tricky, as the Raiders played spoiler last year in week 17.  Still, we see the Ravens coming through to win finish at least 9-7

Pittsburgh is 6-7 and is fading as fast as the Red Sox used to fade in baseball.  We don’t see them recovering to win three in a row.

AFC West

 

San Diego holds a two-game lead over Denver, and we see no reason to expect the Chargers to fold.

Denver is 8-5 and has a favorable finishing schedule with both Oakland and Kansas City coming to the Mile High City.  You can use pen to put them in as a wildcard.

PiRate Playoff Speculation

 

NFC—Round One

#3 Philadelphia hosts #6 Dallas

#4 Arizona hosts #5 Green Bay

 

Divisional Round

 

#1 New Orleans hosts lower remaining seed

#2 Minnesota hosts higher remaining seed

 

AFC—Round One

 

#3 Cincinnati hosts #6 Baltimore

#4 Miami hosts #5 Denver

 

Divisional Round

 

#1 Indianapolis hosts lower remaining seed

#2 San Diego hosts higher remaining seed

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		106.3	105.7	106.7	9-4-0	372	273
Dallas		101.7	102.4	103.3	8-5-0	296	233
New York Giants		101.5	100.4	103.5	7-6-0	341	330
Washington		99.6	99.3	96.9	4-9-0	234	251
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		109.4	107.1	108.8	11-2-0	389	243
Green Bay		103.9	104.3	105.9	9-4-0	344	243
Chicago		95.6	96.8	95.0	5-8-0	247	291
Detroit		88.0	88.2	86.3	2-11-0	209	406
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		113.4	109.9	110.8	13-0-0	466	274
Atlanta		99.9	99.8	98.8	6-7-0	302	305
Carolina		98.4	98.2	92.8	5-8-0	225	282
Tampa Bay		89.1	91.8	88.5	1-12-0	190	356
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		103.9	103.1	105.1	8-5-0	306	258
San Francisco		100.7	101.5	100.5	6-7-0	269	242
Seattle		92.9	95.0	94.7	5-8-0	250	301
St. Louis		85.9	88.9	86.1	1-12-0	146	361
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		107.8	106.6	105.4	8-5-0	348	234
NY Jets		103.1	102.8	104.3	7-6-0	275	211
Miami		100.3	100.8	103.9	7-6-0	292	306
Buffalo		96.0	97.0	96.3	5-8-0	215	271
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		109.1	105.2	106.6	7-6-0	319	218
Pittsburgh		101.7	99.8	99.8	6-7-0	278	244
Cincinnati		101.0	101.0	104.1	9-4-0	264	217
Cleveland		91.5	92.3	92.1	2-11-0	158	315
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.0	109.2	110.7	13-0-0	359	217
Tennessee		103.6	102.4	103.1	6-7-0	293	323
Houston		102.1	102.5	100.4	6-7-0	311	273
Jacksonville		94.4	96.7	98.9	7-6-0	235	287
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		108.5	105.9	107.8	10-3-0	362	259
Denver		100.0	101.7	104.0	8-5-0	256	230
Oakland		91.4	92.2	90.8	4-9-0	155	316
Kansas City		88.3	91.7	88.3	3-10-0	206	342

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 15 = 2.7
Vegas Line as of 12:30PM EDT Tuesday
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Indianapolis	JACKSONVILLE	13.9	9.8	9.1	6 1/2	46
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
NEW ORLEANS	Dallas	14.4	10.2	10.2	7	53 1/2
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Green Bay	0.5	-1.8	-3.4	1	40
TENNESSEE	Miami	6.0	4.3	1.9	3	41 1/2
New England	BUFFALO	9.1	6.9	6.4	7	40 1/2
Arizona	DETROIT	13.2	12.2	16.1	10 1/2	47
PHILADELPHIA	San Francisco	8.3	6.9	8.9	9	44 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Atlanta	5.9	5.7	8.2	NL	NL
BALTIMORE	Chicago	16.2	11.1	14.3	10	40 1/2
Cleveland	KANSAS CITY	0.5	-2.1	1.1	-2	36 1/2
Houston	ST. LOUIS	13.5	10.9	11.6	9 1/2	43
SAN DIEGO	Cincinnati	10.2	7.6	6.4	6 1/2	44
DENVER	Oakland	11.3	12.2	15.9	14	37
SEATTLE	Tampa Bay	6.5	5.9	8.9	7	39 1/2
Minnesota	CAROLINA	8.3	6.2	13.3	7	43
Monday, December 21, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
WASHINGTON	New York Giants	0.8	1.6	-3.9	-3	43

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 13: December 10-14, 2009

NFL Week 14 PiRate Ratings

Eight Games With Must-win Repercussions

 

• Last Week’s PiRate Picks Went 4-1, to bring our seasonal percentage against the spread to 62%+.  To get this week’s NFL picks, go to www.piratings.webs.com and click on “Picks Vs. Vegas Line: $5”

 

Week 14 of the 2009 NFL season finds half of all games involving a team that faces a must-win situation.  If these must-win teams lose this week, most of them will be out of the playoff race barring a miracle.  One of these games involves both teams facing a must-win situation, so that is the PiRate Game of the Week. 

Those two teams are Miami and Jacksonville.  The Jaguars are in the thick of the playoff race, and yet they cannot sell out the Gator Bowl.  It has led to rumors that the franchise is not long for northern Florida.  Does the name Los Angeles Jaguars or even Toronto Jaguars have a nice ring to it? 

Florida Governor Charles Crist has even spoken up about the situation in Jacksonville.  He recommends the Jags to draft Tim Tebow with their first pick in the 2010 draft.  That would definitely sell some tickets, but it won’t help the Jags win more games.  This is a team that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  If they cannot sell out for a playoff contender, it’s time to move this franchise elsewhere.

The Dolphins, along with the Jets, trail New England by just one game, and the Patriots could easily finish as weak as 9-7.  The Jets play at Tampa Bay this week, so the Dolphins know this is a pivotal game.

Other teams that find themselves in a must-win situation are Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas, The New York Giants, and San Francisco.  The Giants host Philadelphia, and the Eagles are almost in a must-win situation, but they can lose this game and still win the division.  Dallas hosts San Diego, and a Cowboys loss could send the Cowboys on a long slide to third place in the NFC East.  After this week, Dallas goes to New Orleans and Washington and hosts Philadelphia to end the season.  A Cowboys loss this week could set the ball in motion for an 8-8 record.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia		105.6	105.6	105.5	8-4-0	327	235
NY Giants		102.2	100.9	103.3	7-5-0	303	285
Dallas		101.8	102.6	102.9	8-4-0	279	213
Washington		97.9	98.2	95.9	3-9-0	200	238
NFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota		108.4	106.2	108.0	10-2-0	359	233
Green Bay		103.5	104.0	105.4	8-4-0	323	229
Chicago		96.0	97.1	95.3	5-7-0	233	270
Detroit		89.8	89.5	88.3	2-10-0	206	358
NFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans		114.4	110.5	111.8	12-0-0	440	251
Atlanta		98.9	98.9	99.8	6-6-0	279	279
Carolina		97.9	98.1	95.9	5-7-0	215	262
Tampa Bay		91.4	92.7	90.5	1-11-0	187	330
NFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona		105.7	104.8	105.4	8-4-0	297	234
San Francisco		98.9	99.8	98.2	5-7-0	245	233
Seattle		95.0	96.7	96.2	5-7-0	243	267
St. Louis		87.7	90.4	86.9	1-11-0	139	314
AFC East		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England		108.3	106.4	105.0	7-5-0	328	224
NY Jets		100.8	101.4	101.9	6-6-0	249	208
Miami		99.6	100.4	102.1	6-6-0	278	296
Buffalo		95.8	96.5	95.7	4-8-0	199	261
AFC North		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore		107.3	104.0	103.7	6-6-0	271	215
Pittsburgh		103.5	101.8	101.9	6-6-0	272	231
Cincinnati		102.0	102.0	104.1	9-3-0	254	187
Cleveland		89.7	90.9	91.0	1-11-0	145	309
AFC South		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis		111.3	108.5	110.8	12-0-0	331	201
Tennessee		101.8	100.7	100.2	5-7-0	246	316
Houston		100.0	100.8	99.2	5-7-0	277	266
Jacksonville		95.1	96.6	99.8	7-5-0	225	273
AFC West		PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego		108.4	105.7	107.9	9-3-0	342	242
Denver		99.7	102.2	104.2	8-4-0	240	202
Oakland		93.1	93.8	92.8	4-8-0	142	282
Kansas City		88.5	91.8	90.3	3-9-0	196	326

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 14 = 2.7
Vegas Line as of 5:00PM EDT Tuesday
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Pittsburgh	CLEVELAND	11.1	8.2	8.2	10	34
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
INDIANAPOLIS	Denver	14.3	9.0	9.3	7	44
MINNESOTA	Cincinnati	9.1	6.9	6.6	6 1/2	43
New York Jets	TAMPA BAY	12.1	11.4	14.1	3 1/2	37
Buffalo	KANSAS CITY	4.6	2.0	2.7	Pk	37
Green Bay	CHICAGO	4.8	4.2	7.4	3	41
New Orleans	ATLANTA	12.8	8.9	9.3	9 1/2	51
BALTIMORE	Detroit	20.2	17.2	18.1	13	40
Miami	JACKSONVILLE	1.8	1.1	-0.4	-3	43 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Carolina	13.1	11.0	11.8	13 1/2	43 1/2
HOUSTON	Seattle	7.7	6.8	5.7	6 1/2	44 1/2
TENNESSEE	St. Louis	16.8	13.0	16.0	13 1/2	41
Washington	OAKLAND	2.1	1.7	0.4	1	37 1/2
San Diego	DALLAS	3.9	0.4	2.3	-3	48 1/2
Philadelphia	NEW YORK GIANTS	0.7	2.0	-0.5	-1	44 1/2
Monday, December 14, 2009
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Arizona	SAN FRANCISCO	4.1	2.3	4.5	3 1/2	44 1/2