The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 9, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football for December 14, 2013

One Regular Season Game Left

The Army-Navy game concludes the regular season this Saturday afternoon.  Navy has won 11 in a row in this series, and Black Knights’ coach Rich Ellerson could be coaching his last game for the USMA.  His team is beaten up, while Navy appears to be playing its best ball of the season since the first of November.

 

Since there is just one game, we will give you the ratings for this game here:

 

PiRate: Navy by 15.3

Mean: Navy by 11.6

Bias: Navy by 14.5

 

The Bowl Schedule

2013-14 Bowl Schedule

GAME DATE SITE TIME–ET TV
New Mexico

12/21/2013

Albuquerque 2:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Colorado St. (7-6) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

         
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

12/21/2013

Las Vegas 3:30pm ABC
Opponents:

Fresno St. (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

         
Famous Idaho Potato

12/21/2013

Boise, ID 5:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

San Diego St. (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-4)

         
New Orleans

12/21/2013

New Orleans 9:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

UL-Lafayette (8-4) vs. Tulane (7-5)

         
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

12/23/2013

St. Petersburg 2:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

         
Hawai’i

12/24/2013

Honolulu 8:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Boise St. (8-4) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

         
Little Caesars Pizza

12/26/2013

Detroit 6:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Bowling Green (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

         
Poinsettia

12/26/2013

San Diego 9:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Utah St. (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

         
Military Bowl

12/27/2013

Washington, DC 2:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Maryland (7-5) vs. Marshall (9-4)

         
Texas

12/27/2013

Houston 6:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Minnesota (8-4) vs. Syracuse (6-6)

         
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

12/27/2013

San Francisco 9:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Washington (8-4) vs. BYU (8-4)

         
Pinstripe

12/28/2013

Bronx 12:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

         
Belk

12/28/2013

Charlotte 3:20pm ESPN
Opponents:

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

         
Russell Athletic

12/28/2013

Orlando 6:45pm ESPN
Opponents:

Louisville (11-1) vs. Miami (9-3)

         
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

12/28/2013

Tempe, AZ 10:15pm ESPN
Opponents:

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. Michigan (7-5)

         
Armed Forces

12/30/2013

Ft. Worth, TX 11:45am ESPN
Opponents:

Navy (7-4*) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)

         
Music City

12/30/2013

Nashville 3:15pm ESPN
Opponents:

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

         
Alamo

12/30/2013

San Antonio 6:45pm ESPN
Opponents:

Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon (10-2)

         
Holiday

12/30/2013

San Diego 10:15pm ESPN
Opponents:

Arizona St. (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

         
AdvoCare V100 Bowl

12/31/2013

Shreveport, LA 12:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Boston College (7-5) vs. Arizona (7-5)

         
Sun

12/31/2013

El Paso, TX 2:00pm CBS
Opponents:

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

         
Liberty

12/31/2013

Memphis 4:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Mississippi St. (6-6) vs. Rice (10-3)

         
Chick-fil-A

12/31/2013

Atlanta 8:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

         
Heart Of Dallas

1/1/2014

Dallas 12:00pm ESPN-U
Opponents:

North Texas (8-4) vs. UNLV (7-5)

         
Gator

1/1/2014

Jacksonville 12:00pm ESPN-2
Opponents:

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

         
Outback

1/1/2014

Tampa 1:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

LSU (9-3) vs. Iowa (8-4)

         
Capital One

1/1/2014

Orlando 1:00pm ABC
Opponents:

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

         
Rose

1/1/2014

Pasadena, CA 5:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Michigan St. (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

         
Fiesta

1/1/2014

Glendale, AZ 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Baylor (11-1) vs. Central Florida (11-1)

         
Sugar

1/2/2014

New Orleans 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Alabama (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

         
Cotton

1/3/2014

Arlington, TX 7:30pm Fox
Opponents:

Missouri (11-2) vs. Oklahoma St. (10-2)

         
Orange

1/3/2014

Miami 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio St. (12-1)

         
BBVA Compass Bowl

1/4/2014

Birmingham 1:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Vanderbilt (8-4) vs. Houston (8-4)

         
GoDaddy.com

1/5/2014

Mobile, AL 9:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Ball St. (10-2) vs. Arkansas St. (7-5)

         
BCS Championship

1/6/2014

Pasadena, CA 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Florida St. (13-0) vs. Auburn (12-1)

         
Teams in Italics are at-large selections      

 

We will have an in-depth preview of each bowl game next week, either Tuesday or Wednesday.

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November 4, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 5-9, 2013

Conference Reports

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Central Florida hosts Houston this week, and if the Knights get by the Cougars, the conference championship is almost theirs.  UCF closes with Temple, Rutgers, South Florida, and SMU.  Rutgers is the only team in that bunch capable of pulling off the upset, but that game is in Orlando.

 

Louisville has two difficult games remaining—hosting Houston on November 16 and finishing the regular season at Cincinnati on Thursday, December 5.  The Cardinals need Houston to beat UCF, and then they would have to beat Houston to earn the BCS Bowl bid.

 

Houston has the toughest job, as the Cougars must still play at UCF and Louisville in the next two Saturdays.  If they can pull off the near miracle, they would then have to face Cincinnati at home the following week  before closing with rival SMU.

 

Cincinnati and SMU are technically still in the conference race, and the two teams square off in the Queen City of Ohio this weekend.  For UC to win the league, the Bearcats must win out against SMU, Rutgers, Houston, and Louisville and then hope UCF loses a game to South Florida or Temple, which could lower their BCS ranking below the Bearcats.  SMU must win out as well, and their road is much tougher—practically impossible, as they would have to pass Louisville in the BCS rankings.

 

1

BCS (Sugar) Central Florida

2

Russell Athletic Louisville

3

Belk Houston

4

Pinstripe Rutgers

5

BBVA Compass Cincinnati

6

Beef O’Brady’s No Team Available

 

ATLANTIC COAST

In the Atlantic Division, Florida St. is a virtual lock to be the division title winner, as the Seminoles would have to lose to both Wake Forest and Syracuse to fall to second place.  The Seminoles just moved back to number two in the BCS rankings, but they are still the odd-team out as of today.  A schedule that includes Idaho and Florida besides the two ACC teams is not strong enough to stay ahead of Oregon should the Ducks win out as well.

Clemson is still alive for a BCS at-large bid, but the Tigers will have to root heavily for Northern Illinois and Fresno St. to both lose.  If one of the non-automatic qualifying teams crashes the party, Clemson’s invitation will never arrived.

 

The remainder of the Atlantic Division is fighting it out for Bowl Eligibility.  Maryland needs just one more win, and they will certainly get that.  Syracuse and Boston College both need two more wins, and the chances are at least 50-50 that they will both succeed and better than 70% that at least one will.

 

Wake Forest and North Carolina St. both have five losses, and they are on the outside looking in. Chances are better than 67% that both will miss out.

 

There is still a race to be won in the Coastal Division.  Miami has three tough games remaining in the four yet to be played.  They host a wounded Virginia Tech team this week, go to the surprising Duke Blue Devils the following week, and then after an easy one against Virginia, the “U” closes at Pittsburgh on Black Friday, where the temperature could be 50 degrees colder than home.

 

Duke controls their own destiny, and for the Blue Devils to win out, they will have to beat North Carolina St., Miami, Wake Forest, and North Carolina, the latter two on the road. 

 

Virginia Tech is still very much alive even though the Hokies have lost their last two.  If they best Miami, it will take home wins over Maryland and Virginia and at least one loss by Duke to give them the division flag.

 

Georgia Tech has a week off to prepare for a game at Clemson.  The Yellow Jackets are already bowl eligible, but they too need one more win to guarantee a bowl bid.  It will come at home against Alabama A&M on November 23.

 

North Carolina and Pittsburgh both have some work to do to become bowl eligible.  The Tar Heels dug themselves into a pit with a 1-5 start, but UNC has won their last two and gets Virginia at home this week.  Games at Pitt and home against Old Dominion and Duke are all winnable, and this team could close out the regular season on a six-game winning streak.

 

Pittsburgh needs to split their final four games to finish with six wins, and the Panthers have a tough job with Notre Dame, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Miami.  Even with six wins, there is no guarantee the Panthers will go bowling.

 

1

BCS (Orange) Florida St.

2

Chick-fil-A Clemson

3

Russell Athletic Miami

4

Sun Virginia Tech

5

Belk Maryland

6

Music City Georgia Tech

7

Advocare V100 Duke

8

Military Syracuse
     
  North Carolina 6-wins and out
  Pittsburgh 6-wins and out

 

BIG 12

The way we see it, this league is going to miss out thrice this year.  First, a 12-0 Baylor will have very little chance, make that almost no chance, of making the National Championship Game.  Second, if Baylor goes 12-0, the Bears could easily be the only league team to play in a BCS Bowl thanks to the likelihood that there will be a non-automatic qualifier breaking in line.  Third, the league champion, be it Baylor or someone else will almost assuredly be stuck playing either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois should one qualify.

 

Baylor winning the league is still not cut and dry.  The Bears have really only played one above average team, and they struggled to defeat Kansas St.  BU closes with all their tough games, starting this Thursday night at home against Oklahoma.  They follow up that game with Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium, Oklahoma St. on the road, TCU on the road, and Texas at home.

 

Coach Mack Brown took a lot of heat and appears to still be on the hot seat in Austin, but Texas still has a shot at the conference championship.  It won’t be easy, as the Longhorns’ closing schedule is rough as well.  After a tricky road trip to West Virginia this weekend, they close with Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, and Baylor.

 

Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma are still alive with one conference loss apiece.  After an easy one at home with Kansas this weekend, OSU plays at Texas and then hosts Baylor in back-to-back weeks.  They get a week off to prepare for the home finale against the Sooners.

 

Oklahoma has two other tough road games before the Oklahoma St. finale in Stillwater.  The Sooners play at Baylor and Kansas St. with a home breather against Iowa St. sandwiched in between.

 

Texas Tech has fallen out of contention with consecutive losses, and the Red Raiders will fight it out with Kansas St. for bowl pecking order.

 

West Virginia’s win at TCU has put the Mountaineers back on the plus 50% of bowl eligibility chance rating.  WVU still has games with the two conference lightweights, Kansas and Iowa St., and the Mountaineers need two wins to reach six.

 

1

BCS (Fiesta) Baylor

2

Cotton Oklahoma St.

3

Alamo Texas

4

Buffalo Wild Wings Oklahoma

5

Holiday Texas Tech

6

Texas Kansas St.

7

Pinstripe West Virginia

 

BIG TEN

Ohio St. can win the rest of their games 100-0, and the Buckeyes will still need two of the three teams ahead of them in the BCS standings to lose.  A non-conference schedule of Buffalo, San Diego St., California, and Florida A&M did not give the Big Ten favorites a fighting chance.  The Big Ten is not strong enough to allow OSU to play that schedule and jump ahead of the Pac-12, SEC, and even ACC.  It is debatable whether the Buckeyes can stay ahead of Baylor if the Bears run the table.

 

This week, we have even made a change in our conference champion prediction.  We now believe Michigan St. has the Legends Division title secured, and this week, we are predicting the Spartans to defend the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

Wisconsin has a trap game this week with BYU.  If the Badgers win this one, they have an excellent shot of winning out and finishing 10-2, but UW would need losses from Ohio St. and Michigan St. to jump into the BCS at-large picture.

 

The remaining bowl hopefuls are all in the Legends Division.  Michigan, Nebraska, and Minnesota are already in as bowl eligible teams.  Iowa needs one more win and should get that this week at Purdue. 

 

Northwestern, after starting 4-0, has lost five in a row, and it appears as though the Wildcats are on the outside, looking in.  NU must beat one of the Michigan teams as well as Illinois on the road.

 

1

BCS (Rose) Michigan St.

2

BCS (Orange) Ohio St.

3

Capital One Wisconsin

4

Outback Michigan

5

Gator Minnesota

6

Buffalo Wild Wings Nebraska

7

Texas Iowa

8

Heart of Dallas No Team Available

9

Little Caesar’s Pizza No Team Available

 

CONFERENCE USA

The picture became much clearer this week in one division, while the top two in the other appear to be heading for a big season-ending showdown.

 

North Texas defeated Rice, while Tulane lost to an emotionally charged Florida Atlantic team.  The Mean Green will win the West Division is they defeat UTEP, UTSA, and Tulsa, while Tulane loses one more game.  The Green Wave must still play at Rice.

 

Rice can only win the division if North Texas loses, and the Owls run the table.

 

In the East, Marshall and East Carolina appear to be headed to a big finish in Huntington on Black Friday.  Middle Tennessee is still mathematically alive.  For the Blue Raiders to win the division, they must win out over FIU, Southern Miss, and UTEP, while Marshall loses before beating ECU, who must also lose another conference game.

 

1

Liberty Marshall

2

Heart of Dallas North Texas

3

Military East Carolina

4

Beef O’Brady’s Middle Tennessee

5

Hawaii Rice

6

New Orleans Tulane

 

INDEPENDENTS

This one is now cut and dry.  BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

 

Notre Dame is bowl eligible and will play in a bowl that needs an at-large team.  The Fighting Irish have an infinitesimal shot at moving into a BCS at-large bowl.

 

Navy is 4-4 with games remaining against Hawaii, South Alabama, San Jose St., and Army.  The Middies should win at least twice and earn their trip to the Armed Forced Bowl.

 

Army is 3-6 and must win out against Western Kentucky, Hawaii, and Navy.  The Black Knights should consider the road game in Honolulu as their bowl, because it does not look likely for a 3-0 finish after losing to lowly Air Force.  Coach Rich Ellerson will most likely be let go if Army loses to Navy.

 

Notre Dame Poinsettia (at-large)
B Y U Kraft Fight Hunger
Navy Armed Forces

 

MID-AMERICAN

This is the week where the MAC starts playing half its schedule on the weeknights.  There are three big midweek games this week involving four contenders for the conference championship.

 

Tuesday night, Bowling Green plays at Miami of Ohio in what must be a win for the Falcons if they are to stay in the East Division race.

 

Also Tuesday night, Buffalo, 4-0 in league play, hosts Ohio, 3-1 and tied with BGU in league play.  If the Bulls win, the Bobcats are probably out of the division race and will fall onto the bowl bubble, where they will need to earn an at-large bowl bid.

 

On Wednesday, Ball St. hosts a so-so Central Michigan team badly in need of an upset win to have a chance at a bowl.  The Cardinals are tied with Northern Illinois at 5-0 in league play, with Toledo one game back but with a home game remaining against NIU.

 

If Northern Illinois runs the table and finishes 13-0, the Huskies will still need for Fresno St. to lose a game to make it to a second consecutive BCS Bowl game.  No 13-0 team in the BCS era has failed to finish in the top 12 of the final regular season standings, and NIU (or Fresno St.) only needs to finish in the top 16 if there is an automatic qualifier ranked below them (as are all the contenders in the AAC).  Should both NIU and FSU finish undefeated, we believe the Huskies could be sent to Las Vegas in a deal to replace FSU and play in a better bowl than the GoDaddy.com bowl.

 

1

BCS at-large (Fiesta) Northern Illinois

2

GoDaddy.com Ball St.

3

Little Caesar’s Pizza Toledo

4

Famous Idaho Potato Buffalo

5

Advocare V100 * Bowling Green

6

Heart of Dallas * Ohio
     

*

At-large bid  
  Central Michigan 6 Wins and Out

 

MOUNTAIN WEST

Fresno St. has moved two spots ahead of Northern Illinois, and the Bulldogs’ schedule should guarantee that if they ran the table,  they would stay ahead of an undefeated NIU team.

 

However, the MWC is a tough league in which to run the table.  In order to get to 12-0 (one game cancelled), the Bulldogs will have to win at Wyoming this Saturday in what has to be a major trap game; The Cowboys had an extra week to prepare, and they need a big upset to have any chance at bowl eligibility.  Should FSU survive this ambush in Laramie, they have a Black Friday game at San Jose St.  If 11-0 in the MWC Championship, they would then have to defeat Boise St. for a second time or Utah St.  Boise lost by a point at Fresno in September, and we cannot see FSU beating the Broncos twice in the same season.

 

There are a host of teams competing for the bowl spots past FSU, Boise St., Utah St., and San Jose St.  UNLV needs just one win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2003 (last bowl in 2000).  The Rebels have three shots and must beat either Utah St., Air Force, or San Diego St.

 

As for San Diego St., the Aztecs need two wins and will have to beat Hawaii and somebody else.  The November 30 game at UNLV could very well be a bowl elimination game.

 

Colorado St. must win seven games, because they play 13 regular season games.  The Rams must finish 3-1.  Their schedule includes home games with Nevada and Air Force and road games at New Mexico and Utah St.  Coach Jim McElwain’s team has a shot.

 

1

Las Vegas Boise St.

2

Poinsettia Fresno St.

3

Armed Forces San Jose St.

4

New Mexico Utah St.

5

Hawaii U N L V

6

Famous Idaho Potato Colorado St.

 

PAC-12

The conference game of the year takes place Thursday in Palo Alto, as Stanford hosts Oregon.  If the Ducks win, they still must defeat Arizona in Tucson and any of three possible South Division contenders in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

If Stanford wins, the Cardinal still must win at USC and defeat rival Cal to win the North.

 

As long as Stanford does not lose to Cal or Notre Dame, the Cardinal have an excellent shot at going to the Rose Bowl if they lose to Oregon.

 

As for the rest of the league, it is still quite jumbled, especially in the South Division.

 

Currently, Arizona St. is the hot team in the South.  The Sun Devils are a game ahead of UCLA, Arizona, and USC.  UCLA hosts ASU on November 23, and the winner of that game should emerge as the division winner.  However don’t dismiss USC.  The Trojans have their swagger back, and they could catch Stanford at the right time when the Cardinal come to the Coliseum following the Oregon game.

 

Arizona finishes with Oregon and Arizona St., and it is hard to see the Wildcats winning both.

 

Utah is 4-4, and the Utes still must play Oregon and Arizona St.  They can get to six wins by topping Washington St. and Colorado, but six wins may keep them home.

 

In addition to the big two in the North, Washington and Oregon St. are competing for third place.  The two play in Corvallis on November 23, and it could be for a bowl position.  The Beavers have a brutal closing schedule that includes road games against Arizona St. and Oregon, and losing to UW could be their bowl demise.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Oregon

2

BCS (Rose) Stanford

3

Alamo Arizona St.

4

Holiday U S C

5

Sun U C L A

6

Las Vegas Washington

7

Kraft Fight Hunger Arizona

8

New Mexico Oregon St.
     
  Utah 6 wins and out

 

SOUTHEASTERN

It is possible that Alabama could lose a game, against LSU, Auburn, or the SEC East Division winner in the conference title game, but this Alabama team looks as strong as the 1995 Nebraska team. 

 

Auburn was picked down at the bottom of the West in the preseason, but the Tigers are still mathematically alive in the West.  If they beat Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama, they will win the division; they won’t.

 

LSU and Texas A&M are fighting for a possible BCS at-large bid, but it will take a 10-2 record to do so, and both are 7-2 with three games to go.  LSU would have to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.  The Tigers and Aggies play in Baton Rouge on November 23.  A&M finishes at Missouri a week later. 

 

Ole Miss will be the fourth team out of the West to go bowling, but Mississippi St. appears to be out of the picture at 4-4 with games yet to be played against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  Coach Dan Mullen turned down opportunities to coach at bigger schools after the 2010 team beat Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl.  He chose to stay in Starkville, and his reward might be unemployment in 2014.

 

In the East, Missouri is still in the driver’s seat with a 4-1 conference mark.  However, the Tigers have tricky games remaining against Ole Miss in Oxford and Texas A&M at home.

 

If Missouri finishes 6-2, then it will matter who the other loss came against in a 3-way tie with two loss Georgia and South Carolina.  If the loss is to Kentucky this week, then the Tigers are in trouble.  If the loss comes against Ole Miss or Texas A&M, then they still win the tiebreaker.

 

If Missouri and South Carolina finish in a two-way tie, then the Gamecocks win the East.  Georgia needs Missouri to lose to Kentucky or two lose twice before they have a chance to return to Atlanta.  Of course, the Bulldogs still have to play at Auburn.

 

In the rare event that teams finish tied for first at 5-3, Florida re-enters the equation.  There are too many possibilities yet to play out, but most of them will be eliminated if Missouri takes care of business in Lexington.

 

As for the rest of the East, the Gators are not yet bowl eligible.  At 4-4, Florida has two tough games on their schedule at South Carolina and at home against Florida St.  Additionally, they still have a difficult game at home against Vanderbilt.  6-6 is probable.

 

Vanderbilt is 4-4 with four to play.  They have games against less than mediocre Kentucky and Wake Forest, as well as winnable games at Florida and Tennessee, so the Commodores have a high probability of making a third consecutive bowl appearance.

 

Tennessee is in a very familiar situation at 4-5 with three games to go.  The Volunteers have been crippled with an injury to starting quarterback Justin Worley as well as backup Nathan Peterman.  Worley could be back for the final two games, and the Vols will have to win them both, at home against Vanderbilt and at Kentucky.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Alabama

2

BCS (Sugar) Auburn

3

Capital One Missouri

4

Outback Texas A&M

5

Cotton South Carolina

6

Chick-fil-A L S U

7

Gator Georgia

8

Music City Ole Miss

9

Liberty Florida

10

BBVA Compass Vanderbilt

11

Advocare V100 No Team Available

 

SUNBELT

The road to the SBC title runs through the Pelican State this year, as the UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe winner will take the crown with the loser getting the second bowl spot.

 

Arkansas St., Texas St., Troy, and Western Kentucky still have shots to make a bowl, but as this league did last year to Middle Tennessee, expect Western Kentucky to get the shaft if there are extra bowl eligible teams.  The Hilltoppers are leaving the league in 2014.

 

1

New Orleans UL-Lafayette

2

GoDaddy.com UL-Monroe

3

Little Caesar’s * Texas St.

4

Beef O’Brady’s * Western Kentucky
     
  Arkansas St. 6 wins and out
  Troy 6 wins and out

 

PiRate Ratings For November 4, 2013

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.1

2

Oregon

135.6

3

Florida St.

131.8

4

Baylor

128.2

5

Ohio St.

128.2

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Arizona St.

124.4

8

L S U

123.0

9

Missouri

122.9

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Oklahoma St.

120.9

12

Wisconsin

120.4

13

Clemson

120.2

14

Ole Miss

120.0

15

Washington

119.7

16

South Carolina

119.6

17

Michigan St.

118.9

18

Texas

118.8

19

U C L A

116.5

20

Oregon St.

116.0

21

Oklahoma

115.8

22

Auburn

115.7

23

Louisville

115.5

24

Georgia

115.4

25

Arizona

115.3

26

Miami

115.2

27

Florida

115.2

28

U S C

115.1

29

B Y U

114.8

30

Kansas St.

112.9

31

Michigan

112.3

32

Nebraska

112.3

33

Notre Dame

112.2

34

Georgia Tech

112.1

35

Texas Tech

110.0

36

Central Florida

108.9

37

Northwestern

108.6

38

Virginia Tech

108.1

39

Utah

108.0

40

T C U

106.7

41

Mississippi St.

106.3

42

Iowa

106.0

43

North Carolina

105.9

44

Utah St.

105.8

45

Minnesota

105.7

46

Vanderbilt

105.6

47

Boise St.

105.2

48

Tennessee

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.5

50

Penn St.

104.5

51

Fresno St.

104.1

52

Indiana

104.0

53

Northern Illinois

103.3

54

East Carolina

103.0

55

Duke

102.4

56

West Virginia

102.2

57

Boston College

101.9

58

Washington St.

101.9

59

Houston

101.7

60

Ball St.

101.1

61

Toledo

100.4

62

Syracuse

99.8

63

Bowling Green

99.8

64

Wake Forest

99.8

65

Pittsburgh

99.4

66

Kentucky

99.4

67

North Texas

98.5

68

Marshall

98.3

69

Buffalo

97.8

70

Illinois

97.7

71

San Jose St.

97.0

72

Rice

96.2

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.2

74

Rutgers

95.9

75

Maryland

95.9

76

Navy

95.5

77

Colorado St.

95.5

78

Arkansas

95.1

79

Ohio

94.7

80

S M U

94.2

81

Iowa St.

93.0

82

California

92.9

83

Kansas

92.6

84

San Diego St.

92.5

85

North Carolina St.

91.6

86

Arkansas St.

90.8

87

U T S A

90.6

88

Memphis

90.2

89

Virginia

90.0

90

Western Kentucky

89.5

91

Colorado

89.1

92

Florida Atlantic

89.0

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.3

94

Tulsa

88.1

95

Purdue

88.0

96

South Florida

87.8

97

Wyoming

87.7

98

South Alabama

87.4

99

Tulane

87.3

100

Temple

87.1

101

Nevada

86.7

102

U N L V

86.5

103

Middle Tennessee

86.1

104

Kent St.

86.0

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Akron

83.3

107

Central Michigan

82.8

108

Hawaii

82.8

109

Troy

82.5

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Army

82.1

112

U A B

81.4

113

Louisiana Tech

80.8

114

New Mexico

80.8

115

Air Force

79.8

116

U T E P

79.0

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Miami (O)

73.0

119

Massachusetts

72.3

120

New Mexico St.

71.9

121

Eastern Michigan

70.9

122

Florida Int’l

69.2

123

Idaho

68.7

124

Southern Miss.

68.1

125

Georgia St.

63.3

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

135.7

2

Alabama

133.3

3

Oregon

132.5

4

Ohio St.

127.0

5

Arizona St.

124.1

6

Clemson

121.5

7

Wisconsin

121.2

8

L S U

121.1

9

Baylor

121.0

10

Missouri

120.9

11

Texas A&M

119.9

12

Michigan St.

119.6

13

Stanford

118.5

14

South Carolina

117.1

15

Ole Miss

116.9

16

Miami

116.6

17

Auburn

115.6

18

Washington

115.6

19

Louisville

114.6

20

B Y U

113.5

21

Georgia

112.8

22

Michigan

112.5

23

Florida

112.3

24

Oklahoma St.

112.2

25

Arizona

111.9

26

U S C

111.9

27

Central Florida

111.8

28

Georgia Tech

111.6

29

U C L A

111.4

30

Oklahoma

111.3

31

Texas

110.7

32

Nebraska

110.4

33

Notre Dame

110.1

34

Houston

109.5

35

Virginia Tech

108.4

36

Oregon St.

108.1

37

North Carolina

107.8

38

Northwestern

106.2

39

Indiana

105.8

40

Texas Tech

105.7

41

Utah

105.7

42

Northern Illinois

105.6

43

Penn St.

105.6

44

Kansas St.

105.5

45

Minnesota

105.4

46

Iowa

105.3

47

East Carolina

104.9

48

Ball St.

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.0

50

Utah St.

103.8

51

Fresno St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.5

53

Mississippi St.

103.5

54

Duke

103.4

55

Vanderbilt

103.0

56

Wake Forest

102.7

57

Boston College

102.4

58

Toledo

102.3

59

Boise St.

101.9

60

Marshall

101.9

61

T C U

101.5

62

North Texas

101.1

63

Washington St.

101.1

64

Bowling Green

100.2

65

Buffalo

100.1

66

Maryland

99.9

67

Illinois

99.6

68

Kentucky

99.2

69

Rutgers

98.9

70

Syracuse

98.8

71

Rice

98.8

72

Ohio

98.5

73

Pittsburgh

98.4

74

Louisiana–Lafayette

97.6

75

Arkansas

97.6

76

Navy

97.2

77

S M U

96.3

78

Memphis

95.7

79

North Carolina St.

95.5

80

West Virginia

95.3

81

Colorado St.

95.2

82

San Jose St.

94.6

83

U T S A

92.5

84

Virginia

91.7

85

Western Kentucky

91.6

86

San Diego St.

91.5

87

Middle Tennessee

91.0

88

Tulane

90.8

89

South Alabama

90.5

90

Florida Atlantic

90.5

91

Colorado

90.1

92

Louisiana–Monroe

89.4

93

Wyoming

89.0

94

Kansas

88.9

95

California

88.7

96

Arkansas St.

88.7

97

Nevada

88.6

98

Temple

88.5

99

Kent St.

88.5

100

U N L V

88.3

101

Texas St.

87.9

102

Army

87.8

103

Tulsa

87.2

104

Akron

87.0

105

Central Michigan

85.5

106

Purdue

85.4

107

Troy

85.2

108

Iowa St.

84.5

109

New Mexico

84.5

110

South Florida

84.4

111

Louisiana Tech

83.2

112

Air Force

83.2

113

Hawaii

82.8

114

U A B

82.4

115

U T E P

80.9

116

Connecticut

79.5

117

Massachusetts

77.3

118

Western Michigan

76.9

119

Miami (O)

76.5

120

New Mexico St.

75.1

121

Eastern Michigan

73.6

122

Idaho

73.3

123

Florida Int’l

71.4

124

Georgia St.

69.2

125

Southern Miss.

68.0

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.2

2

Oregon

136.8

3

Florida St.

133.6

4

Baylor

130.1

5

Ohio St.

128.4

6

Stanford

125.3

7

Arizona St.

124.5

8

L S U

123.7

9

Missouri

122.2

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Wisconsin

121.5

12

Clemson

121.3

13

Oklahoma St.

120.7

14

Ole Miss

119.6

15

Washington

119.4

16

South Carolina

118.7

17

Michigan St.

118.3

18

Texas

117.9

19

Louisville

116.5

20

Auburn

115.9

21

B Y U

115.8

22

Miami

115.7

23

Oklahoma

115.1

24

U C L A

114.8

25

U S C

114.8

26

Georgia

114.5

27

Oregon St.

114.0

28

Arizona

113.9

29

Florida

113.9

30

Kansas St.

112.6

31

Georgia Tech

112.2

32

Michigan

111.5

33

Nebraska

111.1

34

Notre Dame

110.6

35

Central Florida

110.3

36

Texas Tech

109.2

37

Northwestern

108.4

38

Utah

107.6

39

Utah St.

107.5

40

Virginia Tech

107.4

41

North Carolina

106.7

42

Boise St.

106.6

43

Iowa

106.4

44

T C U

106.1

45

Mississippi St.

105.9

46

Minnesota

105.5

47

Vanderbilt

104.9

48

Fresno St.

104.4

49

Cincinnati

104.2

50

Northern Illinois

103.9

51

Penn St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.6

53

East Carolina

103.4

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Boston College

103.0

56

Houston

102.9

57

Washington St.

102.6

58

Ball St.

102.3

59

Duke

101.9

60

Toledo

101.4

61

West Virginia

101.3

62

Wake Forest

100.5

63

Bowling Green

100.2

64

Kentucky

100.1

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Marshall

99.6

67

Pittsburgh

99.4

68

Buffalo

99.3

69

Syracuse

98.7

70

San Jose St.

97.8

71

Illinois

97.4

72

Maryland

97.3

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.8

74

Rice

96.5

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

96.0

77

Navy

95.7

78

Ohio

95.5

79

Arkansas

93.6

80

S M U

93.4

81

San Diego St.

92.6

82

North Carolina St.

92.3

83

Kansas

92.1

84

Iowa St.

91.6

85

California

91.5

86

Memphis

90.7

87

Arkansas St.

90.5

88

U T S A

90.4

89

Virginia

90.1

90

Florida Atlantic

89.8

91

Western Kentucky

89.6

92

Wyoming

88.7

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.1

95

Tulane

87.7

96

South Florida

87.5

97

Colorado

87.3

98

Tulsa

87.1

99

Middle Tennessee

87.0

100

U N L V

86.9

101

Temple

86.8

102

Nevada

86.8

103

Kent St.

86.4

104

Purdue

85.4

105

Akron

84.1

106

Army

83.5

107

Troy

83.4

108

Hawaii

83.3

109

Texas St.

82.8

110

Connecticut

82.8

111

Central Michigan

82.3

112

New Mexico

81.4

113

U A B

80.7

114

Louisiana Tech

80.4

115

Air Force

79.6

116

U T E P

77.7

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.0

119

New Mexico St.

71.6

120

Miami (O)

71.5

121

Eastern Michigan

69.7

122

Florida Int’l

69.4

123

Idaho

68.1

124

Southern Miss.

67.4

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

3-1

7-1

115.5

114.6

116.5

Central Florida

3-0

6-1

108.9

111.8

110.3

Cincinnati

3-1

6-2

104.5

104.0

104.2

Houston

4-0

7-1

101.7

109.5

102.9

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

95.9

98.9

96.0

S M U

2-1

3-4

94.2

96.3

93.4

Memphis

0-4

1-6

90.2

95.7

90.7

South Florida

2-2

2-6

87.8

84.4

87.5

Temple

0-5

1-8

87.1

88.5

86.8

Connecticut

0-3

0-7

83.5

79.5

82.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

6-0

8-0

131.8

135.7

133.6

Clemson

6-1

8-1

120.2

121.5

121.3

Boston College

2-3

4-4

101.9

102.4

103.0

Syracuse

2-2

4-4

99.8

98.8

98.7

Wake Forest

2-4

4-5

99.8

102.7

100.5

Maryland

1-3

5-3

95.9

99.9

97.3

North Carolina St.

0-5

3-5

91.6

95.5

92.3

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-1

7-1

115.2

116.6

115.7

Georgia Tech

5-2

6-3

112.1

111.6

112.2

Virginia Tech

3-2

6-3

108.1

108.4

107.4

North Carolina

2-3

3-5

105.9

107.8

106.7

Duke

2-2

6-2

102.4

103.4

101.9

Pittsburgh

2-3

4-4

99.4

98.4

99.4

Virginia

0-5

2-7

90.0

91.7

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

4-0

7-0

128.2

121.0

130.1

Oklahoma St.

4-1

7-1

120.9

112.2

120.7

Texas

5-0

6-2

118.8

110.7

117.9

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

115.8

111.3

115.1

Kansas St.

2-3

4-4

112.9

105.5

112.6

Texas Tech

4-2

7-2

110.0

105.7

109.2

T C U

1-5

3-6

106.7

101.5

106.1

West Virginia

2-4

4-5

102.2

95.3

101.3

Iowa St.

0-5

1-7

93.0

84.5

91.6

Kansas

0-5

2-6

92.6

88.9

92.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

5-0

9-0

128.2

127.0

128.4

Wisconsin

4-1

6-2

120.4

121.2

121.5

Penn St.

2-2

5-3

104.5

105.6

103.6

Indiana

1-3

3-5

104.0

105.8

103.4

Illinois

0-4

3-5

97.7

99.6

97.4

Purdue

0-4

1-7

88.0

85.4

85.4

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

5-0

8-1

118.9

119.6

118.3

Michigan

2-2

6-2

112.3

112.5

111.5

Nebraska

3-1

6-2

112.3

110.4

111.1

Northwestern

0-5

4-5

108.6

106.2

108.4

Iowa

2-3

5-4

106.0

105.3

106.4

Minnesota

3-2

7-2

105.7

105.4

105.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

4-1

6-2

103.0

104.9

103.4

Marshall

3-1

5-3

98.3

101.9

99.6

Florida Atlantic

2-4

3-6

89.0

90.5

89.8

Middle Tennessee

3-2

5-4

86.1

91.0

87.0

U A B

1-3

2-6

81.4

82.4

80.7

Florida Int’l

1-3

1-7

69.2

71.4

69.4

Southern Miss.

0-4

0-8

68.1

68.0

67.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

4-1

6-3

98.5

101.1

99.7

Rice

4-1

6-3

96.2

98.8

96.5

U T S A

3-2

4-5

90.6

92.5

90.4

Tulsa

1-3

2-6

88.1

87.2

87.1

Tulane

4-1

6-3

87.3

90.8

87.7

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-5

80.8

83.2

80.4

U T E P

0-4

1-7

79.0

80.9

77.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.8

88.9

86.9

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-2

114.8

113.5

115.8

Notre Dame

 

7-2

112.2

110.1

110.6

Navy

 

4-4

95.5

97.2

95.7

Army

 

3-6

82.1

87.8

83.5

Idaho

 

1-8

68.7

73.3

68.1

New Mexico St.

 

1-8

71.9

75.1

71.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.9

92.8

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-1

5-3

99.8

100.2

100.2

Buffalo

4-0

6-2

97.8

100.1

99.3

Ohio

3-1

6-2

94.7

98.5

95.5

Kent St.

1-5

2-8

86.0

88.5

86.4

Akron

2-4

3-7

83.3

87.0

84.1

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

73.0

76.5

71.5

Massachusetts

1-4

1-8

72.3

77.3

72.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

5-0

9-0

103.3

105.6

103.9

Ball St.

5-0

8-1

101.1

104.7

102.3

Toledo

4-1

6-3

100.4

102.3

101.4

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

1-4

1-8

75.5

76.9

75.6

Eastern Michigan

0-5

1-8

70.9

73.6

69.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

4-1

5-4

105.8

103.8

107.5

Boise St.

4-1

6-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Colorado St.

2-2

4-5

95.5

95.2

96.3

Wyoming

2-2

4-4

87.7

89.0

88.7

New Mexico

0-4

2-6

80.8

84.5

81.4

Air Force

0-5

2-7

79.8

83.2

79.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

5-0

8-0

104.1

103.6

104.4

San Jose St.

4-1

5-3

97.0

94.6

97.8

San Diego St.

3-1

4-4

92.5

91.5

92.6

Nevada

2-4

3-6

86.7

88.6

86.8

U N L V

3-2

5-4

86.5

88.3

86.9

Hawaii

0-6

0-8

82.8

82.8

83.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.0

92.3

92.7

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-0

8-0

135.6

132.5

136.8

Stanford

5-1

7-1

126.0

118.5

125.3

Washington

2-3

5-3

119.7

115.6

119.4

Oregon St.

4-2

6-3

116.0

108.1

114.0

Washington St.

2-4

4-5

101.9

101.1

102.6

California

0-6

1-8

92.9

88.7

91.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

4-1

6-2

124.4

124.1

124.5

U C L A

3-2

6-2

116.5

111.4

114.8

Arizona

3-2

6-2

115.3

111.9

113.9

U S C

3-2

6-3

115.1

111.9

114.8

Utah

1-4

4-4

108.0

105.7

107.6

Colorado

0-5

3-5

89.1

90.1

87.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

4-1

8-1

122.9

120.9

122.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

119.6

117.1

118.7

Georgia

4-2

5-3

115.4

112.8

114.5

Florida

3-3

4-4

115.2

112.3

113.9

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.6

103.0

104.9

Tennessee

1-4

4-5

104.7

103.5

103.6

Kentucky

0-4

2-6

99.4

99.2

100.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

5-0

8-0

137.1

133.3

138.2

L S U

3-2

7-2

123.0

121.1

123.7

Texas A&M

3-2

7-2

122.0

119.9

122.0

Ole Miss

2-3

5-3

120.0

116.9

119.6

Auburn

4-1

8-1

115.7

115.6

115.9

Mississippi St.

1-3

4-4

106.3

103.5

105.9

Arkansas

0-5

3-6

95.1

97.6

93.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

3-0

6-2

96.2

97.6

96.8

Arkansas St.

2-1

4-4

90.8

88.7

90.5

Western Kentucky

2-3

5-4

89.5

91.6

89.6

Louisiana–Monroe

3-1

5-4

88.3

89.4

88.4

South Alabama

1-3

3-5

87.4

90.5

88.1

Troy

3-2

5-4

82.5

85.2

83.4

Texas St.

2-2

6-3

82.3

87.9

82.8

Georgia St.

0-4

0-9

63.3

69.2

64.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.0

87.5

85.5

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

6-3

84.6

85.4

91.3

Georgia Southern

 

4-3

82.4

84.8

89.5

Appalachian St.

 

1-7

72.8

71.7

79.9

Charlotte

 

4-5

57.5

62.1

64.6

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.3

76.0

81.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O) Bowling Green

-24.8

-21.7

-26.7

Buffalo Ohio

6.1

4.6

6.8

Ball St. Central Michigan

21.3

22.2

23.0

Baylor Oklahoma

15.4

12.7

18.0

UL-Lafayette Troy

16.7

15.4

16.4

Stanford Oregon

-6.6

-11.0

-8.5

Connecticut Louisville

-29.5

-32.6

-31.2

New Mexico Air Force

3.5

3.8

4.3

Wake Forest Florida St.

-29.0

-30.0

-30.1

Miami (Fla) Virginia Tech

10.1

11.2

11.3

Pittsburgh Notre Dame

-9.8

-8.7

-8.2

Kentucky Missouri

-20.5

18.7

-19.1

Tennessee Auburn

-8.0

-9.1

-9.3

Texas Tech Kansas St.

0.1

3.2

-0.4

Florida Vanderbilt

12.6

12.3

12.0

Iowa St. T C U

-10.7

-14.0

-11.5

Minnesota Penn St.

4.2

2.8

4.9

Marshall U A B

19.9

22.5

21.9

Army Western Kentucky

-4.9

-1.3

-3.6

Cincinnati S M U

13.3

10.7

13.8

Purdue Iowa

-15.5

-17.4

-18.5

Ole Miss Arkansas

27.9

22.3

29.0

North Carolina Virginia

18.9

19.1

19.6

Eastern Michigan Western Michigan

-2.6

-1.3

-3.9

U T S A Tulane

5.8

4.2

5.2

California U S C

-19.2

-20.2

-20.3

Texas A&M Mississippi St.

18.7

19.4

19.1

Michigan Nebraska

3.0

5.1

3.4

Wisconsin B Y U

8.6

10.7

8.7

Colorado St. Nevada

11.8

9.6

12.5

Indiana Illinois

8.8

8.7

8.5

Maryland Syracuse

-0.9

4.8

1.6

New Mexico St. Boston College

-26.5

-23.8

-28.9

North Texas U T E P

22.0

22.7

24.5

Navy Hawaii

16.7

18.4

16.4

East Carolina Tulsa

17.9

20.7

19.3

Oklahoma St. Kansas

31.3

26.3

31.6

Duke North Carolina St.

12.8

9.9

11.6

Utah Arizona St.

-13.4

-15.4

-13.9

Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l

19.4

22.1

20.1

Central Florida Houston

10.2

5.3

10.4

West Virginia Texas

-13.6

-12.4

-13.6

Louisiana Tech Southern Miss.

14.7

17.2

15.0

UL-Monroe Arkansas St.

0.0

3.2

0.4

Alabama L S U

17.1

15.2

17.5

Washington Colorado

33.6

28.5

35.1

U N L V Utah St.

-16.3

-12.5

-17.6

Arizona U C L A

1.8

3.5

2.1

Wyoming Fresno St.

-13.4

-11.6

-12.7

San Jose St. San Diego St.

7.5

6.1

8.2

 

Other Games Involving FBS Teams

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Appalachian St.

45.6

44.1

37.6

Idaho Old Dominion

-12.4

-8.6

-19.7

 

 

This Week’s Full Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Utah St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

Colorado St.

vs.

Buffalo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

U N L V

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Toledo

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Fresno St.

vs.

Notre Dame *

Military Bowl

Syracuse

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

West Virginia

Belk

Houston

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

San Jose St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas

vs.

Arizona St.

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

U S C

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Bowling Green *

vs.

Duke

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

U C L A

Liberty

Florida

vs.

Marshall

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Ohio *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Georgia

Outback

Texas A&M

vs.

Michigan

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Baylor

vs.

Northern Illinois

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

South Carolina

vs.

Oklahoma St.

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Ohio St.

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

UL-Monroe

vs.

Ball St.

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6-win teams not chosen      
Arkansas St.

 

 

 

Boston College

 

 

 

Central Michigan

 

 

 

Florida Atlantic

 

 

 

North Carolina

 

 

 

Troy

 

 

 

Utah

 

 

 

 

October 28, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football: October 30-November 2, 2013

Bowl Picture Starting To Get Clearer

As of today, October 28, 2013, the PiRate Ratings staff believes that about 76 or 77 teams will become bowl eligible for the 70 bowl spots.  In this list, it looks like a strong possibility that every seven-win team eligible for postseason play will earn a bowl bid, as six or seven six-win teams will miss out.

 

Here is our breakdown by conference on the bowl projections.

 

AAC: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 5 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

With SMU, South Florida, and Memphis failing to win close crucial games this year, we believe this new league will come up one team short.

 

Central Florida has one major roadblock to overcome, but that game against Houston is at home.  If Houston upsets UCF, the Cougars will still have to win at Louisville to claim the automatic BCS berth.  We’re going with the Knights to win out.

 

Louisville could be 11-1 and do no better than the Russell Athletic Bowl.

 

1. BCS (Sugar): Central Florida

2. Russell Athletic: Louisville

3. Belk: Houston

4. Pinstripe: Rutgers (Scarlet Knights back to Yankee Stadium for 2nd time)

5. BBVA Compass: Cincinnati (check SEC opponent for human interest)

6. Beef O’Brady’s: No Team Available

 

ACC: 8 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 9th bid) – 9 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Florida St. and Miami will most likely face off twice this year.  One of the rivals must win both games to have a chance to advance to the BCS National Championship Game, and still they will need help.

 

Clemson holds onto hopes for a BCS at-large bid, but if Miami and Florida St. split, the Tigers will do no better than Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.

 

Duke is bowl eligible for a second consecutive year.  Check out the unique bowl possibility we have for David Cutcliffe’s team when you read the SEC opponent scheduled to face the Blue Devils in our bowl projection.

 

1. BCS (Orange): Florida St.

2. Chick-fil-A: Clemson

3. Russell Athletic: Miami

4. Sun: Virginia Tech

5. Belk: Maryland

6. Music City: Duke

7. Advocare V100: Georgia Tech

8. Military: North Carolina (great comeback to 6-6)

Also Bowl Eligible: Syracuse at 6-6

 

Big 12: 7 Bowl Tie-Ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Baylor becomes the heavy favorite now that Texas Tech has lost to Oklahoma, but Tech, OU, and Texas are still alive, and if Oklahoma St. can find a quarterback who can complete anything more than a screen pass, the Cowboys are still in the mix.

 

Until somebody knocks off Baylor, we will keep the Bears in the top spot.  As for Oklahoma, if the Sooners finish 10-2, we believe they will trump any other 10-2 team from other conferences except for Stanford and the number two SEC team.  A 10-2 Texas Tech team does not look as fortunate.

 

West Virginia and TCU have sunk below the bowl eligible line, and Kansas and Iowa St. are going nowhere, so if this league sends two teams to BCS bowls, there will be two bowl spots left unfilled for at-large teams elsewhere.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Baylor

2. BCS (Orange): Oklahoma

3. Cotton: Texas

4. Alamo: Texas Tech

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Oklahoma St.

6. Holiday: Kansas St.

7. Texas: No Team Available

8. Pinstripe: No Team Available

 

Big Ten: 8 Bowl Tie-ins – 8 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Ohio St. can win out by an average of 45-0, and the Buckeyes will not make it to the BCS National Championship Game unless two of the powers ahead of them lose.  The Buckeyes could extend their winning streak to 26 games without having the opportunity to compete for a national championship.  Penn St. went 11-0 in 1968 and in 1969 and was in the same boat.

 

A lot of our fellow bowl projectionists have a second Big Ten team in the BCS, but we believe cannibalism from within the league will take the possible number two teams out of the picture.  Our best bet to sneak into the BCS as a league runner-up is Michigan St.  This league needs both Fresno St. and Northern Illinois to lose.

 

1. BCS (Rose): Ohio St.

2. Capital One: Michigan St.

3. Outback: Wisconsin

4. Gator: Michigan

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Nebraska

6. Texas: Iowa

7. Heart of Dallas: Minnesota

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Indiana (first bid in 6 years and they may not like it so much)

 

C U S A: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

This league is down quite a lot since most of the best teams defected to the AAC, and Tulsa is headed to a losing record.  It makes for a wide open race in both divisions.

 

In the East, the Marshall-East Carolina winner will most likely win the division.  The West is a lot more uncertain.  Tulane, Rice, and North Texas are in a hot race, and it is possible that all three could end up 7-1 in the league.

 

1. Liberty: Tulane

2. Heart of Dallas: Rice

3. Military: Marshall

4. Beef O’Brady’s: East Carolina

5. Hawaii: North Texas

6. New Orleans: Middle Tennessee

 

Independents: 3 Bowl Tie-ins + Notre Dame – 3 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Notre Dame does not appear to be in line for BCS bowl qualification, so the Fighting Irish will have to claim an at-large bid.

 

BYU and Navy have automatic tie-ins and will earn those invitations.  Army has an automatic tie-in but will not earn that invitation.

 

1. At-large (Pinstripe): Notre Dame (perfect spot for the Irish—Yankee Stadium

2. Armed Forces: Navy

3. Kraft Fight Hunger: B Y U

4. Poinsettia: No team (Army not bowl eligible)

 

M A C: 3 Bowl Tie-ins – 7 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Northern Illinois sits just one spot behind Fresno St. in the BCS rankings, and it is debatable whether wins over Ball St., Toledo, and the East Division title winner will be enough to prepare the Huskies over a Fresno St. team that wins out.

 

We are going to make an assumption that if Northern Illinois finishes 13-0 or 12-1, the MAC may try to shop the Huskies to a larger bowl in a backroom deal.  There will be more than enough league teams to fill the regular three bowl spots, and freeing NIU from the league’s top bowl bid might allow another bowl to end up with a much better matchup that promises extra press coverage.

 

1. Special Deal to Las Vegas Bowl: Northern Illinois

2. GoDaddy.com: Toledo

3. Little Caesar’s Pizza: Ball St. (to face in-state rival Indiana)

4. Famous Idaho Potato: Ohio

5. At-Large Selection to Poinsettia: Bowling Green

6. At-Large Selection to Texas: Buffalo

Also Eligible: Central Michigan

 

M W C: 6 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

If Fresno St. wins out and then wins the MWC Championship Game, it will be difficult for the Bulldogs not to qualify for a BCS Bowl.  Northern Illinois could possibly jump FSU, but it is not highly probable.

 

If Fresno St. qualifies for a BCS Bowl, then the Las Vegas Bowl would be faced with the possibility that Boise St. would be headed there for the fourth consecutive season.  We have included a special deal to bring Northern Illinois to Vegas, which will free a rebuilding Boise St. team to stay at home during bowl season.

 

A couple of MWC dark horse teams are in line for bowls this year.  Colorado St. looked very competitive against Alabama, and since then the Rams have turned the corner.  UNLV was picked to finish last in the West Division, and it was expected that this would be Coach Bobby Hauck’s last season in Vegas.  However, the Rebels are just one win away from bowl eligibility, and they will get that sixth win and probably a seventh.

 

1. BCS (Fiesta): Fresno St.

X. Las Vegas: Spot Dealt to Northern Illinois

2. Poinsettia: Utah St.

3. Armed Forces: U N L V

4. New Mexico: Colorado St.

5. Hawaii: San Jose St.

6. Famous Idaho Potato: Boise St.

 

Pac-12: 7 Bowl Tie-ins (plus a secondary 8th bid) – 10 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

Oregon has a couple of tough games remaining, beginning with the big one against Stanford next Thursday evening.  The Ducks can score against any defense, but whether they can stop or slow down a top-rate power running team like Alabama is a major question.  Stanford is about two touchdowns weaker than ‘Bama, so it should offer a little preview of a possible national championship matchup.

 

The rest of the league will have a difficult time separating themselves from each other.  In the South Division, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St., and even USC are still alive.  We are going with a tie on this side, and we believe Arizona has the best chance to emerge as the division representative in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

Washington St. may become bowl eligible for the first time since 2006, but like 2006, they could find themselves without a bowl bid.  The Cougars could join Utah as 6-6 teams having to wait for all the seven-win teams to be invited ahead of them.

 

1. BCS (National Championship): Oregon

2. BCS (Rose): Stanford

3. Alamo: UCLA

4. Holiday: Arizona

5. Sun: Oregon St.

6. Las Vegas: Arizona St.

7. Kraft Fight Hunger: Washington

8. New Mexico: USC

Also Eligible: Washington St., Utah

 

S E C: 10 Bowl Tie-ins – 11 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

There is actually a possibility that 12 teams will become bowl eligible, but we are sticking with 11 for now.  It is almost a metaphysical certitude that two league teams will earn trips to BCS bowls.

 

Alabama has won numerous national championships in the past, and in many of those years, the Crimson Tide started slowly and steadily improved as the season progressed.  This year, the Tide looked beatable earlier in the year, but since the Colorado St. game, the Tide has looked more like the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

 

And, who might be the second best team in the SEC at the present time?  How about the War Eagles?  Auburn coach Gus Malzahn may earn National Coach of The Year honors.

 

South Carolina’s big comeback win over Missouri after trailing 17-0 in the fourth quarter has given the Gamecocks a big chance to advance to their first ever SEC Championship Game.  If Florida beats Georgia this week and if Missouri loses to either Ole Miss or Texas A&M, and USC beats Mississippi St. and Florida, then Steve Spurrier’s club will win the East.  If USC, Mizzou, and Georgia finish tied at 6-2, then Missouri will win the tiebreaker.

 

A couple of interesting bowl possibilities have arisen in recent weeks.  Ole Miss could end up in Nashville against Duke, pitting Coach Cutcliffe against his old team.  Tennessee needs wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, or one of those two and Auburn, to get to six wins.  It is possible that Coach Butch Jones’ Vols could face Cincinnati, Jones’ old team.

 

1. BCS (National Championship Game): Alabama

2. BCS (Sugar): Auburn

3. Capital One: Texas A&M

4. Outback: South Carolina

5. Cotton: L S U

6. Chick-fil-A: Missouri

7. Gator: Florida

8. Music City: Ole Miss

9. Liberty: Georgia

10. BBVA Compass: Tennessee

11. Advocare V100: Vanderbilt

 

Sunbelt: 2 Bowl Tie-ins – 6 Projected Bowl-Eligible Teams

We are projecting six bowl-eligible teams here, but three of the teams are expected to finish 6-6 and have no chance of receiving invitations.  Of the remaining three expected to finish above .500, only two are guaranteed a bowl, but the third has an excellent chance of earning a semi-at-large bid.  This league has secondary agreements with a couple additional bowls, and we project one of those bowls will need an at-large team.

 

1. New Orleans: UL-Lafayette

2. GoDaddy.com: Troy

3. At-Large (Beef O’Brady’s): Texas St.

Also Eligible: Western Kentucky, Arkansas St., UL-Monroe

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.1

2

Oregon

135.6

3

Florida St.

130.4

4

Baylor

128.2

5

Stanford

126.0

6

Ohio St.

125.7

7

L S U

123.0

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Missouri

122.1

10

Texas A&M

121.5

11

Ole Miss

120.0

12

Oklahoma St.

119.9

13

Wisconsin

119.9

14

Washington

119.7

15

South Carolina

119.5

16

Texas

119.4

17

Oregon St.

118.4

18

Clemson

117.8

19

U C L A

117.3

20

Miami

116.6

21

Michigan St.

116.5

22

Arizona

116.4

23

Florida

116.3

24

Oklahoma

115.8

25

Auburn

115.6

26

Louisville

115.5

27

B Y U

114.8

28

Michigan

114.7

29

Georgia

114.6

30

Notre Dame

113.8

31

U S C

112.7

32

Nebraska

112.6

33

Georgia Tech

112.4

34

Texas Tech

111.0

35

Kansas St.

110.7

36

Virginia Tech

109.4

37

Central Florida

108.9

38

T C U

108.8

39

Northwestern

108.3

40

Utah

108.0

41

Iowa

106.5

42

Mississippi St.

106.4

43

North Carolina

106.2

44

Vanderbilt

105.6

45

Tennessee

105.5

46

Penn St.

105.2

47

Minnesota

105.0

48

Boise St.

104.7

49

Indiana

104.7

50

Cincinnati

104.3

51

Utah St.

104.3

52

Fresno St.

104.0

53

Washington St.

103.7

54

East Carolina

103.4

55

Duke

102.4

56

Houston

102.0

57

Northern Illinois

101.6

58

Ball St.

101.1

59

Wake Forest

100.6

60

Boston College

100.6

61

West Virginia

100.1

62

Toledo

99.8

63

Bowling Green

99.8

64

Pittsburgh

99.1

65

Kentucky

99.1

66

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.0

67

Syracuse

99.0

68

Buffalo

97.8

69

Rice

97.4

70

North Texas

97.3

71

Marshall

97.0

72

Illinois

97.0

73

San Jose St.

96.8

74

Rutgers

96.4

75

Colorado St.

96.0

76

Maryland

95.9

77

Arkansas

95.2

78

Iowa St.

95.2

79

Ohio

94.7

80

S M U

94.2

81

Navy

93.9

82

San Diego St.

93.1

83

Virginia

92.4

84

Kansas

92.0

85

California

91.8

86

North Carolina St.

91.3

87

Tulsa

91.0

88

Arkansas St.

90.7

89

Purdue

90.5

90

Memphis

90.4

91

Western Kentucky

90.2

92

Tulane

88.6

93

Colorado

88.3

94

U T S A

87.7

95

Wyoming

87.7

96

Florida Atlantic

87.7

97

South Florida

87.5

98

South Alabama

87.5

99

Louisiana–Monroe

87.2

100

Kent St.

87.1

101

Nevada

86.8

102

U N L V

86.7

103

Temple

86.6

104

Middle Tennessee

86.0

105

Hawaii

84.3

106

Army

84.0

107

Troy

83.6

108

Connecticut

83.5

109

Central Michigan

82.8

110

Akron

82.2

111

Texas St.

81.9

112

U A B

81.5

113

U T E P

80.8

114

New Mexico

80.2

115

Louisiana Tech

79.5

116

Air Force

77.9

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

74.0

119

Miami (O)

73.0

120

Eastern Michigan

71.5

121

Southern Miss.

69.4

122

Idaho

69.1

123

New Mexico St.

69.1

124

Florida Int’l

68.8

125

Georgia St.

62.6

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

134.8

2

Alabama

133.3

3

Oregon

132.5

4

Ohio St.

124.5

5

Arizona St.

122.2

6

L S U

121.1

7

Baylor

121.0

8

Wisconsin

120.7

9

Missouri

119.9

10

Texas A&M

118.9

11

Clemson

118.8

12

Stanford

118.5

13

Miami

117.5

14

Michigan St.

117.3

15

South Carolina

117.0

16

Ole Miss

116.9

17

Washington

115.6

18

Auburn

114.9

19

Michigan

114.8

20

Louisville

114.6

21

B Y U

113.5

22

Florida

113.5

23

Arizona

113.2

24

Georgia

111.9

25

Central Florida

111.8

26

Notre Dame

111.6

27

U C L A

111.6

28

Georgia Tech

111.5

29

Houston

111.3

30

Oklahoma

111.3

31

Nebraska

111.0

32

Texas

110.9

33

Oklahoma St.

110.6

34

Oregon St.

110.0

35

U S C

110.0

36

Virginia Tech

109.9

37

North Carolina

107.9

38

Texas Tech

107.3

39

Indiana

107.0

40

Penn St.

106.3

41

Northwestern

105.9

42

Iowa

105.8

43

Utah

105.7

44

East Carolina

105.5

45

Ball St.

104.7

46

Tennessee

104.5

47

Minnesota

104.2

48

T C U

104.2

49

Wake Forest

104.1

50

Mississippi St.

103.6

51

Northern Illinois

103.5

52

Duke

103.4

53

Fresno St.

103.3

54

Kansas St.

103.2

55

Cincinnati

103.2

56

Washington St.

103.0

57

Vanderbilt

103.0

58

Utah St.

101.9

59

Toledo

101.3

60

Boston College

100.9

61

Boise St.

100.8

62

Marshall

100.8

63

Rice

100.3

64

Louisiana–Lafayette

100.3

65

Bowling Green

100.2

66

Buffalo

100.1

67

Maryland

99.9

68

Rutgers

99.9

69

North Texas

99.6

70

Illinois

98.9

71

Kentucky

98.9

72

Pittsburgh

98.5

73

Ohio

98.5

74

Arkansas

98.3

75

Syracuse

97.4

76

S M U

96.3

77

Colorado St.

96.3

78

Memphis

96.3

79

Navy

95.7

80

North Carolina St.

95.4

81

Virginia

94.4

82

San Jose St.

93.8

83

West Virginia

92.6

84

Tulane

92.0

85

San Diego St.

91.9

86

Western Kentucky

91.8

87

South Alabama

91.3

88

Middle Tennessee

91.1

89

Army

90.1

90

Tulsa

89.9

91

Colorado

89.9

92

U T S A

89.8

93

Kent St.

89.6

94

Florida Atlantic

89.3

95

U N L V

89.1

96

Wyoming

89.0

97

Nevada

88.9

98

Kansas

88.7

99

Louisiana–Monroe

87.9

100

Purdue

87.9

101

Arkansas St.

87.9

102

Temple

87.5

103

California

87.4

104

Texas St.

87.4

105

Iowa St.

86.8

106

Troy

86.7

107

Akron

85.9

108

Central Michigan

85.5

109

Hawaii

84.7

110

New Mexico

84.1

111

U T E P

83.2

112

South Florida

82.6

113

U A B

82.3

114

Louisiana Tech

81.9

115

Air Force

80.9

116

Connecticut

79.5

117

Massachusetts

79.4

118

Western Michigan

76.9

119

Miami (O)

76.5

120

Eastern Michigan

74.6

121

Idaho

73.8

122

New Mexico St.

72.4

123

Florida Int’l

70.8

124

Southern Miss.

69.1

125

Georgia St.

69.0

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.2

2

Oregon

136.8

3

Florida St.

132.4

4

Baylor

130.1

5

Ohio St.

125.9

6

Stanford

125.3

7

L S U

123.7

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Missouri

121.3

10

Texas A&M

121.3

11

Wisconsin

120.8

12

Ole Miss

119.6

13

Oklahoma St.

119.5

14

Washington

119.4

15

Texas

118.6

16

South Carolina

118.6

17

Clemson

118.5

18

Miami

116.9

19

Oregon St.

116.6

20

Louisville

116.5

21

B Y U

115.8

22

Auburn

115.8

23

U C L A

115.8

24

Michigan St.

115.5

25

Arizona

115.3

26

Oklahoma

115.1

27

Florida

115.0

28

Michigan

114.3

29

Georgia

113.7

30

Georgia Tech

112.6

31

Notre Dame

112.4

32

U S C

112.2

33

Nebraska

111.4

34

Texas Tech

110.4

35

Central Florida

110.3

36

Kansas St.

110.1

37

T C U

108.8

38

Virginia Tech

108.7

39

Northwestern

108.1

40

Utah

107.6

41

Iowa

107.1

42

North Carolina

107.1

43

Mississippi St.

106.0

44

Boise St.

105.9

45

Utah St.

105.8

46

Vanderbilt

104.9

47

Minnesota

104.7

48

Washington St.

104.5

49

Tennessee

104.5

50

Penn St.

104.4

51

Fresno St.

104.3

52

Indiana

104.2

53

East Carolina

104.2

54

Cincinnati

103.7

55

Houston

103.6

56

Ball St.

102.3

57

Northern Illinois

101.9

58

Duke

101.9

59

Boston College

101.7

60

Wake Forest

101.5

61

Toledo

100.9

62

Bowling Green

100.2

63

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.8

64

Kentucky

99.8

65

Buffalo

99.3

66

Pittsburgh

99.0

67

West Virginia

98.6

68

North Texas

98.4

69

Marshall

98.4

70

Rice

97.8

71

Syracuse

97.7

72

San Jose St.

97.6

73

Maryland

97.3

74

Colorado St.

97.0

75

Rutgers

96.8

76

Illinois

96.6

77

Ohio

95.5

78

Iowa St.

94.1

79

Navy

93.9

80

Arkansas

93.7

81

San Diego St.

93.4

82

S M U

93.4

83

Virginia

92.9

84

North Carolina St.

91.9

85

Kansas

91.4

86

Memphis

91.2

87

Western Kentucky

90.3

88

Arkansas St.

90.2

89

California

90.1

90

Tulsa

90.1

91

Tulane

89.1

92

Wyoming

88.7

93

Florida Atlantic

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.4

95

Purdue

87.9

96

Kent St.

87.8

97

U T S A

87.4

98

Louisiana–Monroe

87.2

99

U N L V

87.1

100

Middle Tennessee

86.9

101

Nevada

86.9

102

South Florida

86.8

103

Colorado

86.3

104

Temple

86.0

105

Army

85.7

106

Hawaii

85.0

107

Troy

84.6

108

Connecticut

82.8

109

Akron

82.7

110

Central Michigan

82.3

111

Texas St.

82.2

112

U A B

80.8

113

New Mexico

80.6

114

U T E P

80.4

115

Louisiana Tech

78.4

116

Air Force

77.4

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

74.0

119

Miami (O)

71.5

120

Eastern Michigan

70.2

121

Idaho

68.7

122

Florida Int’l

68.6

123

Southern Miss.

68.6

124

New Mexico St.

68.6

125

Georgia St.

63.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

3-1

7-1

115.5

114.6

116.5

Central Florida

3-0

6-1

108.9

111.8

110.3

Cincinnati

2-1

5-2

104.3

103.2

103.7

Houston

3-0

6-1

102.0

111.3

103.6

Rutgers

1-2

4-3

96.4

99.9

96.8

S M U

2-1

3-4

94.2

96.3

93.4

Memphis

0-3

1-5

90.4

96.3

91.2

South Florida

2-1

2-5

87.5

82.6

86.8

Temple

0-4

1-7

86.6

87.5

86.0

Connecticut

0-3

0-7

83.5

79.5

82.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

5-0

7-0

130.4

134.8

132.4

Clemson

5-1

7-1

117.8

118.8

118.5

Wake Forest

2-3

4-4

100.6

104.1

101.5

Boston College

1-3

3-4

100.6

100.9

101.7

Syracuse

1-2

3-4

99.0

97.4

97.7

Maryland

1-3

5-3

95.9

99.9

97.3

North Carolina St.

0-4

3-4

91.3

95.4

91.9

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-0

7-0

116.6

117.5

116.9

Georgia Tech

4-2

5-3

112.4

111.5

112.6

Virginia Tech

3-1

6-2

109.4

109.9

108.7

North Carolina

1-3

2-5

106.2

107.9

107.1

Duke

2-2

6-2

102.4

103.4

101.9

Pittsburgh

2-2

4-3

99.1

98.5

99.0

Virginia

0-4

2-6

92.4

94.4

92.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

4-0

7-0

128.2

121.0

130.1

Oklahoma St.

3-1

6-1

119.9

110.6

119.5

Texas

4-0

5-2

119.4

110.9

118.6

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

115.8

111.3

115.1

Texas Tech

4-1

7-1

111.0

107.3

110.4

Kansas St.

1-3

3-4

110.7

103.2

110.1

T C U

1-4

3-5

108.8

104.2

108.8

West Virginia

1-4

3-5

100.1

92.6

98.6

Iowa St.

0-4

1-6

95.2

86.8

94.1

Kansas

0-4

2-5

92.0

88.7

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

4-0

8-0

125.7

124.5

125.9

Wisconsin

3-1

5-2

119.9

120.7

120.8

Penn St.

1-2

4-3

105.2

106.3

104.4

Indiana

1-2

3-4

104.7

107.0

104.2

Illinois

0-3

3-4

97.0

98.9

96.6

Purdue

0-3

1-6

90.5

87.9

87.9

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

4-0

7-1

116.5

117.3

115.5

Michigan

2-1

6-1

114.7

114.8

114.3

Nebraska

2-1

5-2

112.6

111.0

111.4

Northwestern

0-4

4-4

108.3

105.9

108.1

Iowa

2-2

5-3

106.5

105.8

107.1

Minnesota

2-2

6-2

105.0

104.2

104.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

3-1

5-2

103.4

105.5

104.2

Marshall

2-1

4-3

97.0

100.8

98.4

Florida Atlantic

1-4

2-6

87.7

89.3

88.4

Middle Tennessee

2-2

4-4

86.0

91.1

86.9

U A B

1-2

2-5

81.5

82.3

80.8

Southern Miss.

0-3

0-7

69.4

69.1

68.6

Florida Int’l

1-2

1-6

68.8

70.8

68.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

4-0

6-2

97.4

100.3

97.8

North Texas

3-1

5-3

97.3

99.6

98.4

Tulsa

1-2

2-5

91.0

89.9

90.1

Tulane

4-0

6-2

88.6

92.0

89.1

U T S A

2-2

3-5

87.7

89.8

87.4

Louisiana Tech

2-2

3-5

80.8

83.2

80.4

U T E P

0-4

1-6

79.5

81.9

78.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.9

89.0

87.0

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-2

114.8

113.5

115.8

Notre Dame

 

6-2

113.8

111.6

112.4

Navy

 

4-3

93.9

95.7

93.9

Army

 

3-5

84.0

90.1

85.7

Idaho

 

1-7

69.1

73.8

68.7

New Mexico St.

 

1-7

69.1

72.4

68.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.8

92.9

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-1

5-3

99.8

100.2

100.2

Buffalo

4-0

6-2

97.8

100.1

99.3

Ohio

3-1

6-2

94.7

98.5

95.5

Kent St.

1-4

2-7

87.1

89.6

87.8

Akron

1-4

2-7

82.2

85.9

82.7

Massachusetts

1-3

1-7

74.0

79.4

74.0

Miami (O)

0-4

0-8

73.0

76.5

71.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

4-0

8-0

101.6

103.5

101.9

Ball St.

5-0

8-1

101.1

104.7

102.3

Toledo

3-1

5-3

99.8

101.3

100.9

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

1-4

1-8

75.5

76.9

75.6

Eastern Michigan

0-4

1-7

71.5

74.6

70.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

3-1

5-3

104.7

100.8

105.9

Utah St.

3-1

4-4

104.3

101.9

105.8

Colorado St.

2-1

4-4

96.0

96.3

97.0

Wyoming

2-2

4-4

87.7

89.0

88.7

New Mexico

0-3

2-5

80.2

84.1

80.6

Air Force

0-5

1-7

77.9

80.9

77.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

4-0

7-0

104.0

103.3

104.3

San Jose St.

3-1

4-3

96.8

93.8

97.6

San Diego St.

2-1

3-4

93.1

91.9

93.4

Nevada

2-3

3-5

86.8

88.9

86.9

U N L V

3-1

5-3

86.7

89.1

87.1

Hawaii

0-5

0-7

84.3

84.7

85.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.9

92.1

92.5

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-0

8-0

135.6

132.5

136.8

Stanford

5-1

7-1

126.0

118.5

125.3

Washington

2-3

5-3

119.7

115.6

119.4

Oregon St.

4-1

6-2

118.4

110.0

116.6

Washington St.

2-3

4-4

103.7

103.0

104.5

California

0-5

1-7

91.8

87.4

90.1

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

3-1

5-2

122.6

122.2

122.6

U C L A

2-2

5-2

117.3

111.6

115.8

Arizona

2-2

5-2

116.4

113.2

115.3

U S C

2-2

5-3

112.7

110.0

112.2

Utah

1-4

4-4

108.0

105.7

107.6

Colorado

0-4

3-4

88.3

89.9

86.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

3-1

7-1

122.1

119.9

121.3

South Carolina

4-2

6-2

119.5

117.0

118.6

Florida

3-2

4-3

116.3

113.5

115.0

Georgia

3-2

4-3

114.6

111.9

113.7

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.6

103.0

104.9

Tennessee

1-3

4-4

105.5

104.5

104.5

Kentucky

0-4

1-6

99.1

98.9

99.8

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

5-0

8-0

137.1

133.3

138.2

L S U

3-2

7-2

123.0

121.1

123.7

Texas A&M

3-2

6-2

121.5

118.9

121.3

Ole Miss

2-3

5-3

120.0

116.9

119.6

Auburn

3-1

7-1

115.6

114.9

115.8

Mississippi St.

1-2

4-3

106.4

103.6

106.0

Arkansas

0-4

3-5

95.2

98.3

93.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

3-0

5-2

99.0

100.3

99.8

Arkansas St.

1-1

3-4

90.7

87.9

90.2

Western Kentucky

1-3

4-4

90.2

91.8

90.3

South Alabama

1-2

3-4

87.5

91.3

88.4

Louisiana–Monroe

2-1

4-4

87.2

87.9

87.2

Troy

3-1

5-3

83.6

86.7

84.6

Texas St.

2-2

5-3

81.9

87.4

82.2

Georgia St.

0-3

0-8

62.6

69.0

63.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.3

87.8

85.8

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

5-3

83.3

84.1

90.0

Georgia Southern

 

4-2

83.1

85.5

90.2

Appalachian St.

 

1-6

73.6

72.5

80.7

Charlotte

 

4-4

58.5

63.1

65.6

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.6

76.3

81.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Memphis Cincinnati

-10.9

-3.9

-9.5

Houston South Florida

17.5

31.7

19.8

North Texas Rice

2.4

1.8

3.1

Troy UL-Monroe

-1.1

1.3

-0.1

Washington St. Arizona St.

-15.9

-16.2

-15.1

Oregon St. U S C

8.7

3.0

7.4

Missouri Tennessee

19.6

18.4

19.8

Arkansas Auburn

-17.4

-13.6

-19.1

Purdue Ohio St.

-32.2

-33.6

-35.0

Boston College Virginia Tech

-5.8

-6.0

-4.0

Massachusetts Northern Illinois

-25.6

-22.1

-25.9

Rutgers Temple

11.8

14.4

12.8

Penn St. Illinois

11.2

10.4

10.8

Air Force Army

-3.1

-6.2

-5.3

Iowa Wisconsin

-10.4

-11.9

-10.7

South Carolina Mississippi St.

16.1

16.4

15.6

North Carolina St. North Carolina

-12.9

-10.5

-13.2

Syracuse Wake Forest

1.4

-3.7

-0.8

Marshall Southern Miss.

30.1

34.2

32.3

U A B Middle Tennessee

-2.0

-6.3

-3.6

Georgia St. Western Kentucky

-25.6

-20.8

-24.6

Virginia Clemson

-22.4

-21.4

-22.6

Michigan St. Michigan

3.8

4.5

3.2

Nebraska Northwestern

7.3

8.1

6.3

California Arizona

-21.6

-22.8

-22.2

Florida (Jacksonville) Georgia

1.7

1.6

1.3

Indiana Minnesota

2.7

5.8

2.5

Notre Dame Navy

22.9

18.9

21.5

Tulsa U T S A

6.3

3.1

5.7

Texas Kansas

30.4

25.2

30.2

Akron Kent St.

-2.4

-2.2

-2.6

Kansas St. Iowa St.

18.5

19.4

19.1

T C U West Virginia

11.7

14.6

13.2

Utah St. Hawaii

24.0

21.2

24.8

U N L V San Jose St.

-7.6

-2.2

-8.0

Idaho Texas St.

-10.3

-11.1

-11.0

UL-Lafayette New Mexico St.

32.9

30.9

34.2

Florida Atlantic Tulane

2.1

0.3

2.3

Florida Int’l East Carolina

-32.1

-32.2

-33.1

Texas Tech Oklahoma St.

-5.9

-0.3

-6.1

Georgia Tech Pittsburgh

16.3

11.1

16.6

Toledo Eastern Michigan

31.3

29.7

33.7

U C L A Colorado

32.0

24.7

32.5

South Alabama Arkansas St.

-0.7

5.9

0.7

Florida St. Miami

16.3

19.8

18.0

San Diego St. New Mexico

15.9

10.8

15.8

Colorado St. Boise St.

-5.7

-1.5

-5.9

Texas A&M U T E P

45.0

40.0

45.9

Fresno St. Nevada

20.2

17.4

20.4

 

 

Complete Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

U S C

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Northern Illinois ^

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

Boise St.

vs.

Ohio

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Texas St. *

vs.

East Carolina

Hawai’i

San Jose St.

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Indiana

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Bowling Green *

Military Bowl

North Carolina

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Buffalo *

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Houston

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

U N L V

vs.

Navy

Music City

Duke

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas Tech

vs.

U C L A

Holiday

Kansas St.

vs.

Arizona

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Vanderbilt

vs.

Georgia Tech

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

Oregon St.

Liberty

Georgia

vs.

Tulane

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

Missouri

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Minnesota

Gator

Michigan

vs.

Florida

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Wisconsin

Capital One

Michigan St.

vs.

Texas A&M

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Baylor

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Texas

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Oklahoma

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Tennessee

GoDaddy.com

Troy

vs.

Stanford

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

^ Special Deal to allow NIU to play in better bowl and Boise St. to play in home bowl

 

October 21, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football: October 22-26, 2013

Who’s In, Who’s on the Bubble, Who’s Out

Contenders: Teams Contending for the BCS National Championship Game

 

Locks: Teams either already bowl-eligible or sure to become bowl-eligible

 

Bubble: Teams still in contention for bowl-eligibility but that must win some big games

 

Still Alive: Teams that need to pull off upsets and also win all the games in which they will be favored to become bowl-eligible.

 

American Athletic

Contenders: None

Locks: Louisville, Central Florida, Houston

Bubble: Cincinnati, Rutgers

Still Alive: SMU, South Florida

 

Louisville goes from title contender to likely participant in a minor bowl after losing to Central Florida.  UCF is now the odds-on favorite to win the automatic BCS Bowl bid, and they will probably play in the Fiesta Bowl unless either Northern Illinois or Fresno St. qualifies for a BCS bowl.

 

Houston never was in the hunt for a national title, but the Cougars now have the best shot to unseat UCF for the conference title.  An out of conference loss to BYU does not affect their chances for the automatic BCS bid.  Houston and UCF face off in Orlando on November 9.

 

Atlantic Coast

Contenders: Florida St., Miami

Locks: Clemson, Virginia Tech

Bubble: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Duke,

Still Alive: Pittsburgh, Boston College

 

Florida St. surprisingly opened up as the number two team in the first BCS poll, but the Seminoles will still need either Alabama or Oregon to lose a game to make it to Pasadena.  Oregon’s schedule will allow the Ducks to pass the Seminoles if both win out.

 

Miami needs even more help.  The Hurricanes could run the table and still miss out on the title game, as they are behind Ohio St., Missouri, and even one-loss Stanford.

 

Virginia Tech and Miami should decide the Coastal Division title winner when they square off at Sun Life Stadium on November 9.  The winner of that game could sneak in as a BCS at-large team if they lose no other game but the ACC Championship Game.  Of course, if the Coastal champ wins, Florida St. could receive an at-large bid.

 

Big 12

Contenders: Baylor, Texas Tech

Locks: Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma St.

Bubble: Kansas St.

Still Alive: West Virginia

 

For fans of schools in conferences that do not receive a lot of bowl bids, like the MAC, the Big 12 could provide an extra bowl opportunity.  We project a maximum of seven bowl eligible teams and a possibility of six if West Virginia loses one more game that they are projected to win.  If this league provides a BCS at-large bid, then seven teams will be one short and six will be two short.

 

Baylor is getting no respect at number eight in the BCS rankings, while Texas Tech is not found until number 10.  A 12-0 season for either team will still send the champion to the Fiesta Bowl, where their reward might be playing Central Florida, Houston, Northern Illinois, or Fresno St.

 

Big Ten

Contenders: Ohio St.

Locks: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan St.

Bubble: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern

Still Alive: Indiana

 

Ohio St. fans are screaming that the BCS rankings show favoritism to the SEC, and that their Buckeyes are just as deserving as Alabama, Florida St., or Oregon.  They believe that it is unjust because Alabama’s schedule includes a host of SEC games complimented by non-conference games against Colorado St., Georgia St., and Chattanooga.  If the SEC teams Alabama defeats are not considered tough wins because they are SEC wins, how does Alabama’s schedule trump Ohio St.’s schedule?  OSU plays the Big Ten schedule plus Buffalo, San Diego St., and California.  Buffalo and SDSU could both end up in bowls.

 

We may or may not agree with this premise, but we do agree that the BCS is terribly flawed, and the new 4-team playoff is just as much flawed.

 

It is our opinion that the participants in a playoff should not be selected but earned through won-loss record and tiebreakers that everybody can figure out by looking at the won-loss records and tiebreakers.

 

We published just how such a playoff should be conducted so that no team would have to be “chosen” to participate.  We shall re-publish that treatise later this season.

 

Conference USA

Contenders: None

Locks: East Carolina, Rice, Tulane, Marshall

Bubble: North Texas, Middle Tennessee

Still Alive: Tulsa

 

This is still a very interesting race, even though the winner has the Liberty Bowl for its reward.

 

East Carolina and Marshall close out the regular season on Friday, November 29, in Huntington, with the winner almost assured of winning the division title.

 

In the West, there is a chance that North Texas, Rice, and Tulane could end up in a three-way tie.  We favor North Texas to emerge as the division titlist to face Marshall for the conference championship.

 

Independents

Contenders: None

Locks: Notre Dame, BYU

Bubble: Navy

Still Alive: Army

 

Notre Dame is still contending for a BCS at-large bid, but the Irish must win out and hope for some others to come back to the pack.  A win at Stanford could do the trick, but we believe it will not happen.

 

BYU might deserve a BCS at-large bid if the Cougars win out to finish 10-2, but we do not believe the human polls will give them enough respect.

 

Navy and Army could face off in December with both teams needing one more win to become bowl-eligible.  Army has now lost 11 consecutive games in this series, with last year being the most emotional of the bunch.

 

Mid-American

Contenders: None

Locks: Northern Illinois, Ball St.

Bubble: Bowling Green, Ohio, Buffalo, Toledo

Still Alive: Central Michigan

 

Northern Illinois still finds itself on the outside looking in for a BCS Bowl bid.  The Huskies are one spot behind Fresno St., and two spots outside of the requirement to finish in the top 16 and also finish ahead of another automatic qualifier, which Central Florida currently sits at number 23.

 

Ball St. is more than talented enough to end any chance NIU has of getting back to a big bowl.  If NIU should knock off Ball St. on Wednesday, November 13, in DeKalb, the Huskies still must defeat Bowling Green, Buffalo, or Ohio in the MAC Championship Game.

 

This conference will go six deep in bowl-eligibility, but only three spots are guaranteed bowls.  As it looks today, we believe two more teams will receive at-large bowl invitations, while one deserving team will be team number 71.

 

Mountain West

Contenders: None

Locks: Fresno St., Boise St.

Bubble: Utah St., UNLV

Still Alive: San Jose St., Colorado St., Wyoming, San Diego St., Nevada

 

Fresno St. has about a 95% chance of earning a trip to the Fiesta Bowl if the Bulldogs win out.  The Bulldogs are number 17 in the BCS rankings, and they only need one team in the 12-16 range to lose or a team in the 5-11 range to lose twice.  The AAC champion has virtually no chance of surpassing a 12-0 Fresno team.

 

Boise St. is the major obstacle in Fresno’s way.  The Broncos lost a one-point heartbreaker at Fresno earlier this year, and in a rematch in the MWC Championship Game, Boise St. might be the favorite in Las Vegas.

 

The rest of the league will see a great struggle between five or six teams trying to eek out six wins.  Utah St., Wyoming, and UNLV need two more wins.  Colorado St., San Diego St., San Jose St., and Nevada need three more wins.  Cannibalism inside the league will send two or three to sub .500 records.  Six teams should qualify with chances for a seventh team to squeeze in at 6-6.  Hawaii will not get the required seven wins, so the Hawaii Bowl will go to another MWC team.

 

Pac-12

Contenders: Oregon, Stanford

Locks: Oregon St., Arizona St., UCLA

Bubble: Washington, Arizona, USC, Utah

Still Alive: Washington St.

 

Oregon will move to number two in the BCS rankings if they win out.  That will include victories over UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon St., and the South Division champion.

 

Stanford is the only one loss team that currently still resides in the National Champion contender list.  The Cardinal would have to win out, which would include beating Oregon, and then need Ohio St., Missouri, and either Alabama or Florida St. to lose.

 

This league could very well end up with 10 of the 12 members becoming bowl-eligible.  However, two could be on the outside looking in at 6-6, as lesser leagues have seven-win teams available.

 

Southeastern

Contenders: Alabama, Missouri

Locks: LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn

Bubble: Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,

Still Alive: Mississippi St.

 

Alabama looks to be invincible at this point after struggling for a few weeks earlier in the year.  There is still a chance that the SEC could wind up with both participants in the National Championship Game like in 2011.  If Both Alabama and Missouri finish 12-0, the two teams could play for the national title if the conference title game is close.

 

Auburn and Tennessee are the two other surprise teams.  The Tigers are already bowl-eligible, and they could move into January 1 bowl status with a win over Georgia.  Tennessee needs two more victories and closes with Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

 

Sunbelt

Contenders: None

Locks: UL-Lafayette

Bubble: Western Kentucky, Arkansas St., Troy, South Alabama, Texas St.

Still Alive: UL-Monroe

 

UL-Lafayette could be looking at a third consecutive New Orleans Bowl invitation, and it would not surprise us if their opponent is another Pelican State school.  If multiple teams compete for the second bid, expect Western Kentucky to get the shaft the same way an eight-win Middle Tennessee team was shafted last year.  The Hilltoppers are moving to CUSA, and the league will punish them just like they punished the Blue Raiders in 2012.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

135.9

2

Oregon

135.1

3

Florida St.

127.6

4

Baylor

127.0

5

Stanford

125.7

6

L S U

123.5

7

Missouri

123.3

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Ohio St.

121.9

10

Ole Miss

120.3

11

Wisconsin

119.9

12

Texas A&M

119.9

13

Washington

119.4

14

Oregon St.

118.7

15

Clemson

118.3

16

South Carolina

118.3

17

Miami

117.9

18

Oklahoma St.

117.9

19

U C L A

117.8

20

Texas

117.4

21

Arizona

116.3

22

Florida

116.3

23

Nebraska

116.0

24

Oklahoma

115.5

25

Louisville

115.1

26

Michigan

114.7

27

Georgia

114.6

28

Auburn

114.2

29

Notre Dame

114.1

30

Michigan St.

112.9

31

Georgia Tech

112.9

32

U S C

112.1

33

B Y U

112.0

34

Texas Tech

111.3

35

Virginia Tech

111.2

36

T C U

111.1

37

Kansas St.

109.8

38

Utah

108.6

39

Penn St.

108.5

40

Northwestern

108.5

41

Vanderbilt

107.3

42

Tennessee

106.7

43

Mississippi St.

106.7

44

Boise St.

106.5

45

Iowa

106.4

46

Central Florida

106.1

47

Fresno St.

104.9

48

Indiana

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.3

50

Utah St.

104.3

51

North Carolina

103.9

52

Washington St.

103.7

53

East Carolina

103.4

54

Boston College

102.9

55

Minnesota

102.1

56

West Virginia

101.3

57

Ball St.

100.8

58

Illinois

100.7

59

Bowling Green

100.5

60

Northern Illinois

100.4

61

Pittsburgh

100.1

62

Duke

100.1

63

Rutgers

100.0

64

Toledo

99.1

65

Syracuse

99.0

66

Kentucky

98.8

67

Marshall

98.7

68

Wake Forest

98.3

69

Louisiana–Lafayette

97.7

70

Iowa St.

97.7

71

Houston

97.4

72

San Jose St.

97.1

73

Buffalo

96.7

74

Colorado St.

95.9

75

North Texas

95.7

76

Maryland

95.4

77

Rice

95.2

78

Arkansas

95.2

79

North Carolina St.

94.6

80

Ohio

94.5

81

S M U

94.1

82

Navy

93.4

83

Kansas

93.2

84

Western Kentucky

92.9

85

Tulsa

92.1

86

California

92.1

87

Arkansas St.

92.0

88

San Diego St.

91.9

89

Virginia

91.9

90

Purdue

90.5

91

Memphis

90.4

92

Florida Atlantic

89.1

93

Colorado

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.4

95

Kent St.

88.2

96

South Florida

87.9

97

Nevada

87.8

98

Tulane

87.8

99

Wyoming

87.4

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

101

Temple

86.7

102

Connecticut

86.3

103

U T S A

86.2

104

U N L V

85.7

105

Hawaii

84.4

106

Middle Tennessee

84.3

107

Army

84.0

108

U A B

83.3

109

Central Michigan

82.8

110

Akron

82.5

111

U T E P

81.7

112

Troy

81.2

113

Texas St.

81.0

114

Louisiana Tech

80.5

115

New Mexico

80.2

116

Air Force

77.6

117

Western Michigan

75.4

118

Massachusetts

74.1

119

Miami (O)

73.2

120

Eastern Michigan

72.7

121

Southern Miss.

71.0

122

Florida Int’l

69.1

123

New Mexico St.

69.1

124

Idaho

68.8

125

Georgia St.

62.9

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

132.0

2

Florida St.

131.8

3

Alabama

131.6

4

Arizona St.

122.2

5

L S U

121.6

6

Missouri

121.4

7

Wisconsin

120.7

8

Ohio St.

119.9

9

Baylor

119.4

10

Clemson

119.1

11

Miami

118.8

12

Stanford

118.1

13

Texas A&M

117.0

14

Ole Miss

116.8

15

South Carolina

115.5

16

Washington

115.3

17

Michigan

114.8

18

Nebraska

114.6

19

Louisville

114.4

20

Florida

113.5

21

Michigan St.

113.4

22

Auburn

113.2

23

U C L A

112.1

24

Arizona

112.0

25

Georgia

111.9

26

Virginia Tech

111.9

27

Georgia Tech

111.8

28

Notre Dame

111.5

29

B Y U

111.3

30

Oklahoma

110.5

31

Oregon St.

110.4

32

Penn St.

110.4

33

Central Florida

109.3

34

U S C

109.1

35

Oklahoma St.

108.5

36

Texas

108.4

37

Texas Tech

108.1

38

Houston

107.0

39

T C U

107.0

40

Indiana

107.0

41

Utah

106.6

42

Tennessee

106.2

43

Northwestern

106.1

44

Iowa

105.7

45

North Carolina

105.7

46

East Carolina

105.5

47

Vanderbilt

105.0

48

Fresno St.

104.6

49

Ball St.

104.2

50

Mississippi St.

103.7

51

Rutgers

103.2

52

Cincinnati

103.2

53

Boston College

103.1

54

Washington St.

103.0

55

Illinois

102.9

56

Marshall

102.7

57

Northern Illinois

102.0

58

Boise St.

102.0

59

Kansas St.

101.9

60

Utah St.

101.9

61

Wake Forest

101.8

62

Minnesota

101.1

63

Bowling Green

101.1

64

Duke

100.9

65

Toledo

100.4

66

Maryland

99.6

67

Louisiana–Lafayette

99.5

68

Pittsburgh

99.3

69

North Carolina St.

98.9

70

Kentucky

98.8

71

Buffalo

98.5

72

Ohio

98.3

73

Arkansas

98.3

74

North Texas

98.1

75

Rice

97.7

76

Syracuse

97.4

77

S M U

96.6

78

Memphis

96.3

79

Colorado St.

96.2

80

Navy

95.4

81

Western Kentucky

94.4

82

West Virginia

94.2

83

Virginia

94.1

84

San Jose St.

93.7

85

South Alabama

92.0

86

Tulane

91.6

87

Kent St.

91.2

88

Colorado

91.1

89

Florida Atlantic

91.0

90

Tulsa

90.6

91

San Diego St.

90.3

92

Kansas

90.3

93

Army

90.1

94

Nevada

90.1

95

Iowa St.

89.4

96

Middle Tennessee

89.2

97

Wyoming

89.1

98

Arkansas St.

88.7

99

U T S A

88.4

100

U N L V

87.9

101

Purdue

87.9

102

California

87.7

103

Temple

87.2

104

Texas St.

86.7

105

Louisiana–Monroe

86.4

106

Akron

86.4

107

Central Michigan

85.5

108

Hawaii

84.8

109

U T E P

84.5

110

Troy

84.4

111

New Mexico

84.1

112

U A B

84.0

113

South Florida

82.8

114

Louisiana Tech

82.7

115

Connecticut

82.0

116

Air Force

81.0

117

Massachusetts

80.5

118

Miami (O)

76.7

119

Eastern Michigan

76.1

120

Western Michigan

75.8

121

Idaho

73.9

122

New Mexico St.

72.4

123

Florida Int’l

71.3

124

Southern Miss.

70.6

125

Georgia St.

70.5

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

136.6

2

Oregon

136.3

3

Florida St.

129.4

4

Baylor

128.7

5

Stanford

124.9

6

L S U

124.2

7

Missouri

123.0

8

Arizona St.

122.6

9

Ohio St.

121.9

10

Wisconsin

120.8

11

Ole Miss

120.1

12

Clemson

119.2

13

Texas A&M

119.2

14

Washington

119.1

15

Miami

118.6

16

Oklahoma St.

117.6

17

Oregon St.

117.0

18

South Carolina

116.9

19

Texas

116.4

20

U C L A

116.3

21

Louisville

116.1

22

Arizona

115.2

23

Nebraska

115.1

24

Florida

115.0

25

Oklahoma

114.6

26

Michigan

114.3

27

Auburn

114.1

28

Georgia

113.7

29

Georgia Tech

113.3

30

B Y U

112.8

31

Notre Dame

112.6

32

Michigan St.

111.7

33

U S C

111.4

34

T C U

111.3

35

Texas Tech

110.9

36

Virginia Tech

110.9

37

Kansas St.

109.1

38

Utah

108.4

39

Northwestern

108.3

40

Boise St.

107.9

41

Penn St.

107.9

42

Central Florida

107.3

43

Vanderbilt

107.1

44

Iowa

107.0

45

Mississippi St.

106.4

46

Tennessee

106.1

47

Utah St.

105.8

48

Fresno St.

105.4

49

Washington St.

104.5

50

Boston College

104.4

51

North Carolina

104.4

52

Indiana

104.2

53

East Carolina

104.2

54

Cincinnati

103.7

55

Ball St.

102.0

56

Minnesota

101.5

57

Bowling Green

101.5

58

Marshall

100.7

59

Rutgers

100.6

60

Northern Illinois

100.5

61

Illinois

100.5

62

Pittsburgh

100.2

63

West Virginia

99.9

64

Toledo

99.6

65

Kentucky

99.4

66

Duke

99.2

67

Houston

98.8

68

Wake Forest

98.8

69

Louisiana–Lafayette

98.3

70

Buffalo

98.0

71

San Jose St.

97.8

72

Syracuse

97.7

73

North Texas

96.9

74

Colorado St.

96.9

75

Maryland

96.6

76

Iowa St.

96.5

77

Ohio

95.4

78

North Carolina St.

95.4

79

Rice

95.3

80

Arkansas

93.7

81

S M U

93.3

82

Navy

93.2

83

Western Kentucky

93.1

84

Kansas

92.5

85

Virginia

92.2

86

San Diego St.

92.0

87

Arkansas St.

91.7

88

Memphis

91.2

89

Tulsa

91.0

90

California

90.4

91

Florida Atlantic

90.1

92

South Alabama

89.5

93

Kent St.

89.1

94

Tulane

88.5

95

Wyoming

88.5

96

Nevada

88.2

97

Purdue

87.9

98

South Florida

87.2

99

Louisiana–Monroe

86.5

100

Colorado

86.4

101

Temple

86.1

102

U T S A

85.9

103

U N L V

85.8

104

Connecticut

85.8

105

Army

85.7

106

Hawaii

85.1

107

Middle Tennessee

84.6

108

Akron

83.0

109

U A B

82.6

110

Central Michigan

82.3

111

Troy

82.1

112

Texas St.

81.1

113

U T E P

80.9

114

New Mexico

80.6

115

Louisiana Tech

79.9

116

Air Force

77.2

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

74.1

119

Miami (O)

71.6

120

Eastern Michigan

71.6

121

Southern Miss.

70.1

122

Florida Int’l

69.1

123

New Mexico St.

68.6

124

Idaho

68.2

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

2-1

6-1

115.1

114.4

116.1

Central Florida

2-0

5-1

106.1

109.3

107.3

Cincinnati

2-1

5-2

104.3

103.2

103.7

Rutgers

1-1

4-2

100.0

103.2

100.6

Houston

2-0

5-1

97.4

107.0

98.8

S M U

1-1

2-4

94.1

96.6

93.3

Memphis

0-3

1-5

90.4

96.3

91.2

South Florida

2-0

2-4

87.9

82.8

87.2

Temple

0-3

1-6

86.7

87.2

86.1

Connecticut

0-2

0-6

86.3

82.0

85.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.8

98.2

97.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

4-0

6-0

127.6

131.8

129.4

Clemson

4-1

6-1

118.3

119.1

119.2

Boston College

1-2

3-3

102.9

103.1

104.4

Syracuse

1-2

3-4

99.0

97.4

97.7

Wake Forest

2-2

4-3

98.3

101.8

98.8

Maryland

1-2

5-2

95.4

99.6

96.6

North Carolina St.

0-3

3-3

94.6

98.9

95.4

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

2-0

6-0

117.9

118.8

118.6

Georgia Tech

3-2

4-3

112.9

111.8

113.3

Virginia Tech

3-0

6-1

111.2

111.9

110.9

North Carolina

0-3

1-5

103.9

105.7

104.4

Pittsburgh

2-2

4-2

100.1

99.3

100.2

Duke

1-2

5-2

100.1

100.9

99.2

Virginia

0-3

2-5

91.9

94.1

92.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.7

105.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

3-0

6-0

127.0

119.4

128.7

Oklahoma St.

2-1

5-1

117.9

108.5

117.6

Texas

3-0

4-2

117.4

108.4

116.4

Oklahoma

3-1

6-1

115.5

110.5

114.6

Texas Tech

4-0

7-0

111.3

108.1

110.9

T C U

1-3

3-4

111.1

107.0

111.3

Kansas St.

0-3

2-4

109.8

101.9

109.1

West Virginia

1-3

3-4

101.3

94.2

99.9

Iowa St.

0-3

1-5

97.7

89.4

96.5

Kansas

0-3

2-4

93.2

90.3

92.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.2

103.8

109.8

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

3-0

7-0

121.9

119.9

121.9

Wisconsin

3-1

5-2

119.9

120.7

120.8

Penn St.

1-1

4-2

108.5

110.4

107.9

Indiana

1-2

3-4

104.7

107.0

104.2

Illinois

0-2

3-3

100.7

102.9

100.5

Purdue

0-3

1-6

90.5

87.9

87.9

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Nebraska

2-0

5-1

116.0

114.6

115.1

Michigan

2-1

6-1

114.7

114.8

114.3

Michigan St.

3-0

6-1

112.9

113.4

111.7

Northwestern

0-3

4-3

108.5

106.1

108.3

Iowa

1-2

4-3

106.4

105.7

107.0

Minnesota

1-2

5-2

102.1

101.1

101.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

3-1

5-2

103.4

105.5

104.2

Marshall

2-0

4-2

98.7

102.7

100.7

Florida Atlantic

1-4

2-5

89.1

91.0

90.1

Middle Tennessee

1-2

3-4

84.3

89.2

84.6

U A B

1-1

2-4

83.3

84.0

82.6

Southern Miss.

0-2

0-6

71.0

70.6

70.1

Florida Int’l

1-1

1-5

69.1

71.3

69.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

2-1

4-3

95.7

98.1

96.9

Rice

3-0

5-2

95.2

97.7

95.3

Tulsa

1-1

2-4

92.1

90.6

91.0

Tulane

3-0

5-2

87.8

91.6

88.5

U T S A

1-2

2-5

86.2

88.4

85.9

U T E P

0-3

1-5

81.7

84.5

80.9

Louisiana Tech

1-2

2-5

80.5

82.7

79.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.0

89.1

87.1

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

5-2

114.1

111.5

112.6

B Y U

 

5-2

112.0

111.3

112.8

Navy

 

3-3

93.4

95.4

93.2

Army

 

3-5

84.0

90.1

85.7

New Mexico St.

 

0-7

69.1

72.4

68.6

Idaho

 

1-6

68.8

73.9

68.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.2

92.4

90.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

3-0

5-2

100.5

101.1

101.5

Buffalo

3-0

5-2

96.7

98.5

98.0

Ohio

2-1

5-2

94.5

98.3

95.4

Kent St.

1-3

2-6

88.2

91.2

89.1

Akron

1-3

2-6

82.5

86.4

83.0

Massachusetts

1-2

1-6

74.1

80.5

74.1

Miami (O)

0-3

0-7

73.2

76.7

71.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ball St.

4-0

7-1

100.8

104.2

102.0

Northern Illinois

3-0

7-0

100.4

102.0

100.5

Toledo

2-1

4-3

99.1

100.4

99.6

Central Michigan

2-2

3-5

82.8

85.5

82.3

Western Michigan

0-4

0-8

75.4

75.8

75.5

Eastern Michigan

0-3

1-6

72.7

76.1

71.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.5

88.0

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

3-1

5-2

106.5

102.0

107.9

Utah St.

3-1

4-4

104.3

101.9

105.8

Colorado St.

1-1

3-4

95.9

96.2

96.9

Wyoming

2-1

4-3

87.4

89.1

88.5

New Mexico

0-3

2-5

80.2

84.1

80.6

Air Force

0-5

1-6

77.6

81.0

77.2

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

3-0

6-0

104.9

104.6

105.4

San Jose St.

2-1

3-3

97.1

93.7

97.8

San Diego St.

2-0

3-3

91.9

90.3

92.0

Nevada

2-2

3-4

87.8

90.1

88.2

U N L V

2-1

4-3

85.7

87.9

85.8

Hawaii

0-4

0-6

84.4

84.8

85.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.0

92.1

92.6

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

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