PiRate Picks–October 20, 2022

A Fool’s Folly

As we always forewarn every week on this particular feature, do not use this entry as real money wagering reference material. This is purely for entertainment purposes, and this season has been a lot more entertaining to those that like comedies of errors. Last week’s picks went 3-3, which resulted in a minor loss. This week, we go with five selections, all against the spread, and a couple swimming against our normal current. Normally, we are more interested in the numbers than the names on our selections. This week, we are choosing five games where we think our pick has been undervalued. It is not our forte, but then our forte needs reinforcing.

Selection #1: Ball St. -2 1/2 over Eastern Michigan

This goes against everything we look for in making a selection. EMU has been playing hot and cold all season, and they are actually due to be hot this week. However, we think that Ball State is 7 to 10 points better, so we are taking the Cardinals as a short favorite. We considered bringing out the big 10-point teaser play with this game included to make it BSU +7 1/2, but there just weren’t two other games to combine it with to our liking.

Selection #2: Ohio +3 vs. Northern Illinois

We’d like this a lot more at +3 1/2, but we didn’t make the selection when it briefly was that number. Ohio has improved by 10 points since the start of the year, while NIU has been mediocre, and the Huskies are not playing up to their talent level. The MAC East is definitely up for grabs, and the Bobcats are in the mix. We believe Ohio will win this game outright.

Selection #3: Ole Miss + 1 1/2 vs. LSU

The Rebels have not had a lot of success in Baton Rouge, last winning there in 2008. Ole Miss has a chance to win the SEC West with Alabama coming to the Grove in November. LSU is coming off an impressive road win at Florida, and we believe the odds have been moved too many points in the Tigers’ favor based on these perceptions. Ole Miss has lapses in most of their games, but then they find their mark and go on big scoring runs, almost like a basketball team. Our belief here is that LSU might have the lead in the second half, before the Rebels score two or three times to win the game.

Selection #4: Purdue + 2 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

This was the game that had us wait to put our picks out, and it never went to 3 points during the time we isolated on it. This game may be a must-win game for the Badgers’ bowl hopes this year. Losing at Michigan State left UW with a thin margin in the hunt for a 6-6 record. On the other hand, Purdue is now squarely in the Big Ten West race with Illinois and can become bowl eligible with a win. As we said above, this game and pointspread goes against all we normally play, but maybe that’s a good thing in this strange year.

Selection #5: Penn St. -4 vs. Minnesota

Again, this is another against the current play. Normally, we would not consider a 4-point favorite coming off a deflating loss as a playable game. However, in this case, we believe the Nittany Lions might win this game by double digits. They had the third quarter lead at Michigan, and then the Wolverines proved too strong. Minnesota has not yet righted the ship after losing Tanner Morgan for the Purdue game. Morgan’s return didn’t propel the Gophers against surprising Illinois last week. Additionally, Morgan exited last week’s game with a blow to the head, and while we expect him to play this week, he won’t be 100% healthy. This looks like the perfect setting for a James Franklin-coached team to rebound with an impressive win to make next week’s very big game meaningful. Jimmy Frank will not led his team look ahead to the Buckeyes.

Mid-American Conference Preview

The MAC has been up and down for many years, rarely a middle of the pack conference among the non-elite. There was a time when Toledo and Miami of Ohio were regulars in the major polls. Miami actually beat Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in three consecutive bowl games. The MAC has produced the New Year’s Day Bowl team that was guaranteed to the top Group of 5 team.

There have been years where this league was considerably weaker than the better Group of 5 conferences, and there have been a couple teams that have come and gone from the league. Over the Winter, the MAC appeared to be expanding to 14 teams with the additions of Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State. The two Conference USA schools and rivals chose to remain where they were.

Here is the official media poll for the Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference
		Votes
#	East	1st Place	Overall
1	Miami (O)	20	139
2	Kent St.	3	116
3	Buffalo	0	78
4	Ohio	0	72
5	Bowling Green	1	71
6	Akron	0	28
#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Northern Illinois	11	122
2	Toledo	9	120
3	Central Michigan	4	112
4	Western Michigan	0	56
5	Eastern Michigan	0	52
6	Ball St.	0	42
	Championship	Overall
	Northern Illinois	9
	Toledo	6
	Miami (O)	5
	Central Michigan	4

Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the MAC.

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.5	94.5	94.3	93.4
Kent St.	87.3	90.1	87.6	88.3
Bowling Green	87.7	86.4	86.8	87.0
Ohio	84.2	86.9	86.4	85.8
Buffalo	83.0	85.7	84.7	84.4
Akron	78.2	79.2	77.8	78.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.8	98.2	98.3	98.1
Central Mich.	93.0	95.3	96.3	94.9
Toledo	93.4	94.6	95.3	94.4
Western Mich.	92.1	93.4	93.5	93.0
Eastern Mich.	88.3	88.9	88.0	88.4
Ball St.	84.6	85.9	84.7	85.0
MAC	88.4	89.9	89.5	89.3

The PiRate Ratings are predictive in nature. However, they are only designed to look forward one week. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the MAC.

East	MAC	Overall
Miami (O)	7-1	8-5
Kent St.	5-3	6-6
Ohio	3-5	5-7
Bowling Green	3-5	4-8
Buffalo	1-7	3-9
Akron	0-8	1-11
West	MAC	Overall
Northern Illinois	8-0	11-2
Toledo	6-2	8-4
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4
Western Michigan	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	2-6	4-8
Eastern Michigan	2-6	4-8

Northern Illinois picked to beat Miami (O) in the MAC Championship Game.

Coming Tomorrow: The Sun Belt Conference

Mid-American Conference Preview

There wasn’t much MACtion in the Mid-American Conference in 2020.  Covid limited MAC play to a minimum number of games with two teams playing just three games, one other playing four times, one team playing eight games, and the rest playing five to seven times.

In the end, two teams emerged as the clear cut best in the league–Buffalo in the East and Ball State in the West.  Ball St. defeated the 5-0 Bulls in the MAC Championship Game, and then both teams won their bowl games, Buffalo over Marshall in the Camellia Bowl, and Ball St. over San Jose St. in the Arizona Bowl.

Buffalo faced a minor rebuild on the offensive end with four new starters needed to replace the best receiving corps in the league, but the Bulls were hit with a very late blow in the Spring.  Coach Lance Leipold had been a candidate for multiple Power 5 coaching gigs in December, but he came up short on all of them.  Then, after Kansas fired Les Miles, Leipold was offered and accepted the job in Lawrence.  Former Dallas Cowboys secondary coach and Michigan co-defensive coordinator Maurice “Mo” Linguist has developed a reputation for being an incredible recruiter, and he should bring some fine talent to The Queen City.

There’s an additional irony to the MAC East, as co-favorite Ohio U had a late head coaching change.  Legendary coach Frank Solich stepped down due to health concerns, and offensive coordinator Tim Albin takes over.  Albin has not been a head coach since 1999, but that Northwestern Oklahoma State team finished 13-0 and won the NAIA football championship.

Kent State and Miami of Ohio have the same head coaches they had last year.  Fans of Kent State are excited about Coach Sean Lewis’s up-tempo offense.  In their abbreviated season, The Golden Flashes averaged almost 50 points per game and more than 600 total yards per game.  Miami’s season ended after playing just three games, but the Redhawks penned the lone loss on the conference champs, topping Ball State by a touchdown. 

Akron and Bowling Green bring up the rear in the East.  Akron won the head-to-head matchup last year, but the two teams combined to go 1-10, both giving up more than 40 points per game.

The race in the MAC West should be one of the most competitive races of any FBS division.  A case could be made for five of the six teams to earn a piece of the first place this year, and only Northern Illinois figures not to challenge for supremacy.

Defending champs Ball State returns the bulk of its starting 22 players from last year, but the Cardinals won four of their five regular season games by seven points or less.  Rarely does a team repeat that feat from year to year.  Usually, if the team isn’t vastly better, they lose a couple of the types of games they won the year before.

Central Michigan and Toledo figure to be much improved in 2021.  Both schools return almost their entire starting lineups on both sides of the ball.  Keep an eye out for these very experienced and talented squads in September games against Power 5 opponents.  CMU plays Missouri, while Toledo takes on Notre Dame.  

Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan return a majority of their 2020 starters but with every player getting a free extra year, having 16 returning starters is almost below average.

Northern Illinois, once the best Group of 5 program in America, has fallen on hard times.  The Huskies went 0-6 last year and figure to be underdogs in almost every game against FBS competition this year.

Here is how the MAC media voted in the preseason poll:

2021 MAC Football Preseason Poll

(First Place Votes in Parentheses)

East Division

1. Kent State (11) – 112 points

2. Ohio (2) – 96 points

3. Miami (5) – 94 points

4. Buffalo (4) – 93 points

5. Akron – 39 points

6. Bowling Green – 28 points

West Division

1. Ball State (11) – 114 points

2. Toledo (7) – 104 points

3. Western Michigan (4) – 103 points

4. Central Michigan – 68 points

5. Eastern Michigan – 44 points

6. Northern Illinois – 29 points

MAC Football Championship Game Winner: Ball State (7), Toledo (5), Kent State (4), Western Michigan (3), Buffalo (2), Miami (1)

The preseason PiRate Ratings differ somewhat.

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4

The PiRate Ratings are not designed to pick seasonal won-loss records, but we use them any way to make predictions just for fun.

MAC East	Conf.	Overall
Miami (Ohio)	6-2	8-5*
Buffalo	5-3	7-5
Ohio	5-3	7-5
Kent St.	4-4	5-7
Akron	1-7	2-10
Bowling Green	0-8	1-11
MAC West	Conf.	Overall
Central Michigan	6-2	8-5
Toledo	6-2	9-3
Ball St.	6-2	8-4
Eastern Michigan	5-3	8-4
Western Michigan	2-6	3-9
Northern Illinois	2-6	3-9
* Miami (Ohio) picked to win MAC Championship Game

2013 Mid-American Conference Football Preview

2013 Mid-American Conference Preview

 

The MAC achieved special status last season, with two schools challenging for a BCS Bowl bid.  Kent State moved into prime position to grab that bowl with an 11-1 regular season that brought the Golden Flashes into the top 20 and just inside the parameters needed to steal a bid.

 

At the same time, Northern Illinois won 11 games in a row after an opening one-point loss at Iowa, and the Huskies moved into the top 20 as well.

 

In the MAC Championship Game, NIU bested Kent State in one of the most exciting conference championship games of all time.  The game went to double overtime, before the Huskies emerged victorious.  They earned an Orange Bowl bid to face Florida State, where they showed they really did not belong in a BCS Bowl.

 

Now, both of the two powers from 2012 must replace successful coaches who received nice pay increases to move to the big time.  Former NIU coach Dave Doeren now calls the shots at North Carolina St., while Kent State’s Darrell Hazell is the new man at Purdue.

 

2013 looks to be a typical year for the MAC, not one where one team should make a run toward a BCS Bowl bid, but one where as many as six teams could find themselves in a bowl at the end of the year.

 

This is one league that experiences no additions or departures.

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team		Conf.	Overall			PiRate		Mean	Bias
Bowling Green		0-0	0-0			98.7		100.3	99.8
Buffalo		0-0	0-0			92.8		95.2	93.2
Ohio		0-0	0-0			91.9		97.8	93.4
Kent St.		0-0	0-0			89.5		93.8	90.1
Miami (O)		0-0	0-0			83.5		85.1	82.9
Akron		0-0	0-0			80.8		89.3	80.2
Massachusetts		0-0	0-0			70.6		81.1	70.2
West Division
Team		Conf.	Overall			PiRate		Mean	Bias
Toledo		0-0	0-0			98.6		98.3	99.2
Northern Illinois		0-0	0-0			97.8		97.0	99.6
Ball St.		0-0	0-0			97.1		99.3	98.3
Western Michigan		0-0	0-0			85.2		86.7	86.5
Central Michigan		0-0	0-0			84.4		89.9	84.6
Eastern Michigan		0-0	0-0			79.5		83.6	79.2
League Averages						88.5		92.1	89.0
Official Pre-season Media Poll
MAC-East
Pos	Team	Votes		1st Place
1	Ohio	164		15
2	Bowling Green	154		8
3	Kent St.	119		1
4	Buffalo	101		1
5	Miami (O)	78		0
6	Akron	53		0
7	Massachusetts	29		0
MAC-West
Pos	Team	Votes		1st Place
1	Northern Illinois	138		16
2	Toledo	122		5
3	Ball St.	108		3
4	Central Michigan	67		1
5	Western Michigan	61		0
6	Eastern Michigan	29		0
MAC Championship Game Winner
1	Northern Illinois	14
2	Toledo	3
3	Ohio	3
4	Bowling Green	2
5	Ball St.	2
6	Central Michigan	1

 

 

The Mid-American Conference does not announce a preseason All-MAC team.  In lieu, here are key players for each team:

 

MAC East

Akron: Cody Grice—DL, Malachi Freeman—DB, Jawon Chisholm—RB, Jerron Dillard—WR

 

Bowling Green: Matt Schilz—QB, Chris Gallon and Shaun Joplin—WR, Dominic Flewellyn—OL, Gabe Martin—LB

 

Buffalo: Branden Oliver—RB, Alex Neutz—WR, Khalil Mack—LB, Colby Way—DL, Najja Johnson—DB

 

Kent St.: Dri Archer and Trayion Durham—RB, Pat McShane—OL, Luke Wollet—DB, Roosevelt Nix—DL, Anthony Melchiori—P

 

Massachusetts: Mike Wegzyn—QB, Rob Blanchflower—TE, Colter Johnson—P

 

Miami (O): Dawan Scott—WR, Steve Marck—TE, Chris Wade—LB, Brison Burris and Dayonne Nunley—DB

 

Ohio: Tyler Tettleton—QB, Beau Blankenship—RB, Donte Foster—WR, John Prior—OL, Keith Moore—LB, Travis Carrie—DB

 

MAC West

Ball St.: Keith Wenning—QB, Jahwan Edwards—RB, Willie Snead and Jamill Smith—WR, Zane Fakes—TE, Jordan Hansel—OL, Jonathan Newsome and Nathan Ollie—DL, Eric Patterson and Jeffery Garrett—DB

 

Central Michigan: Zurlon Tipton—RB, Titus Davis—WR, Nick Beamish—OL, Justin Cherocci and Shamari Benton—LB

 

Eastern Michigan: Tyler Benz—QB, Bronson Hill—RB, Campbell Allison—OL, Donald Coleman—DB

 

Northern Illinois: Jordan Lynch—QB, Tommylee Lewis—WR, Tyler Loos, Jared Volk, Aidan Conlon, Andrew Ness, and Ryan Brown—OL, Jimmie Ward—DB, Jamaal Bass—LB, Mathew Sims—K

 

Toledo: Terrance Owens—QB, David Fluellen—RB, Bernard Reedy and Alzono Russell—WR, Greg Mancz—OL, Cheatham Norrils—DB, Trent Voss–LB (Reedy in return game)

 

Western Michigan: Tyler Van Tubbergen—QB, Jaime Wilson—WR, Johnnie Simon—LB/DB hybrid, Justin Currie—DB, Desmond Bozeman–LB

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

EAST DIVISION

Team	Bowling Green Falcons
Head Coach	Dave Clawson
Colors	Orange and Brown
City	Bowling Green, OH
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	61
Pass Offense	72
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	58
Ratings
PiRate	98.7
Mean	100.3
Bias	99.8
Rankings
PiRate	63
Mean	61
Bias	60
Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	11-2 (win MAC title game)

 

 

Team	Buffalo Bulls
Head Coach	Jeff Quinn
Colors	Royal Blue and White
City	Buffalo
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	58
Pass Defense	54
Ratings
PiRate	92.8
Mean	95.2
Bias	93.2
Rankings
PiRate	85
Mean	82
Bias	86
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Ohio Bobcats
Head Coach	Frank Solich
Colors	Hunter Green and White
City	Athens, OH
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	63
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	52
Pass Defense	46
Ratings
PiRate	91.9
Mean	97.8
Bias	93.4
Rankings
PiRate	88
Mean	67
Bias	85
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	Kent St. Golden Flashes
Head Coach	Paul Haynes
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Kent, OH
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	11-3
Grades
Run Offense	75
Pass Offense	44
Run Defense	62
Pass Defense	44
Ratings
PiRate	89.5
Mean	93.8
Bias	90.1
Rankings
PiRate	94
Mean	88
Bias	94
Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

 

Team	Miami (O) Redhawks
Head Coach	Don Treadwell
Colors	Red and White
City	Oxford, OH
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	36
Pass Offense	64
Run Defense	41
Pass Defense	48
Ratings
PiRate	83.5
Mean	85.1
Bias	82.9
Rankings
PiRate	111
Mean	116
Bias	112
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Akron Zips
Head Coach	Terry Bowden
Colors
City	Akron, OH
2012 Record
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11
Grades
Run Offense	37
Pass Offense	59
Run Defense	38
Pass Defense	45
Ratings
PiRate	80.8
Mean	89.3
Bias	80.2
Rankings
PiRate	116
Mean	104
Bias	117
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Massachusetts Minutemen
Head Coach	Charley Molnar
Colors	Maroon and White
City	Amherst, MA
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	1-11
Grades
Run Offense	27
Pass Offense	40
Run Defense	35
Pass Defense	38
Ratings
PiRate	70.6
Mean	81.1
Bias	70.2
Rankings
PiRate	124
Mean	122
Bias	123
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	0-12

 

 

WEST DIVISION

Team	Toledo Rockets
Head Coach	Matt Campbell
Colors	Midnight Blue & Gold
City	Toledo, OH
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	62
Pass Offense	77
Run Defense	60
Pass Defense	54
Ratings
PiRate	98.6
Mean	98.3
Bias	99.2
Rankings
PiRate	65
Mean	65
Bias	64
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Northern Illinois Huskies
Head Coach	Rod Carey
Colors	Red and Black
City	DeKalb, IL
2012 Record
Conference	8-0 (won MAC title game)
Overall	12-2
Grades
Run Offense	71
Pass Offense	65
Run Defense	66
Pass Defense	52
Ratings
PiRate	97.8
Mean	97.0
Bias	99.6
Rankings
PiRate	70
Mean	74
Bias	61
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4 (lose MAC title game)

 

 

Team	Ball St. Cardinals
Head Coach	Pete Lembo
Colors	Cardinal, Black, and White
City	Muncie, IN
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	64
Pass Offense	78
Run Defense	50
Pass Defense	54
Ratings
PiRate	97.1
Mean	99.3
Bias	98.3
Rankings
PiRate	73
Mean	63
Bias	69
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-2

 

 

Team	Western Michigan Broncos
Head Coach	P. J. Fleck
Colors	Brown & Gold (also Black & Silver)
City	Kalamazoo, MI
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	38
Pass Offense	69
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	49
Ratings
PiRate	85.2
Mean	86.7
Bias	86.5
Rankings
PiRate	107
Mean	110
Bias	101
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	Central Michigan Chippewas
Head Coach	Dan Enos
Colors	Maroon and Gold
City	Mt. Pleasant, MI
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	57
Run Defense	40
Pass Defense	46
Ratings
PiRate	84.4
Mean	89.9
Bias	84.6
Rankings
PiRate	109
Mean	102
Bias	109
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Eastern Michigan Eagles
Head Coach	Ron English
Colors	Dark Green and White
City	Ypsilanti, MI
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10
Grades
Run Offense	58
Pass Offense	35
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	48
Ratings
PiRate	79.5
Mean	83.6
Bias	79.2
Rankings
PiRate	119
Mean	118
Bias	120
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11