2019 Sun Belt Conference Football Preview

The Sun Belt Conference is a league on the rise, and in 2019, it has moved past two other leagues to third best in the Group of 5, at least according to our preseason PiRate Ratings.

Recent success has led to coach poaching by Power 5 schools, much like the poaching of MAC schools for decades by the Big Ten.  The East Division breaks in new coaches at the top two programs, as Appalachian State’s former coach Scott Satterfield moved on to Louisville, and Troy’s former coach Neal Brown took the West Virginia job.

It’s the personnel that returns in droves this year in the SBC.  Most of the contenders will be as talented or better than 2018, and the few teams that look a tad weaker were already the also-rans of the league.

Here’s how the Sun Belt Conference Media voted in their preseason poll.

 

Sun Belt Conference Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Appalachian St.	7	46
2	Troy	1	39
3	Georgia Southern	2	35
4	Coastal Carolina	0	17
5	Georgia St.	0	13
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Louisiana	6	46
2	Arkansas St.	3	42
3	Louisiana-Monroe	0	27
4	South Alabama	1	19
5	Texas St.	0	16
	Championship Game Winner
	Appalachian St.

 

The preseason PiRate Ratings differ minimally from the media poll.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Sun Belt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	105.2	103.3	104.3	104.3
Georgia Southern	98.3	98.0	97.7	98.0
Troy	95.1	95.5	94.1	94.9
Georgia St.	84.2	85.6	83.2	84.3
Coastal Carolina	81.2	82.6	80.0	81.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	92.1	92.9	91.0	92.0
Arkansas St.	91.2	91.7	91.1	91.3
Louisiana-Monroe	89.0	89.9	89.0	89.3
Texas St.	83.6	84.9	83.6	84.0
South Alabama	74.8	78.0	73.6	75.5
SBC Averages	89.5	90.2	88.8	89.5

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	Sun Belt	Overall
1	Appalachian St.	7-1	10-3*
2	Troy	6-2	9-3
3	Georgia Southern	6-2	8-4
4	Coastal Carolina	2-6	4-8
5	Georgia St.	1-7	2-10
West Division
Pos	Team	Sun Belt	Overall
1	Arkansas St.	6-2	7-6
2	Louisiana	6-2	8-4
3	UL-Monroe	4-4	5-7
4	Texas St.	2-6	3-9
5	South Alabama	0-8	1-11
*	Appalachian St. Picked to Win SBC Championship Game

 

Bowl Predictions
New Orleans	Appalachian St.
Dollar General	Arkansas St.
Camellia	Louisiana
Cure	Georgia Southern
Arizona	Troy

 

Coaches That Could Move To Power 5 Conferences

Chad Lunsford, Georgia Southern

Billy Napier, Louisiana

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Shawn Elliott, Georgia St.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Shai Werts, Georgia Southern

Zac Thomas, Appalachian St.

Caleb Evans, Louisiana-Monroe

 

Best Offense

Appalachian St.

Louisiana

Troy

 

Best Defense

Georgia Southern

Troy

Appalachian St.

 

Coming Tomorrow–The Mountain West Conference

2018 Sun Belt Conference Preview

Welcome to the 2018 College Football season! It has been a long Winter, Spring, and Summer in dry dock, but the PiRates have fixed the ship up better than new, and we are anxious to launch our repaired vessel to the Gridiron Sea for 2018-19.

If you read yesterday’s post, we took on a remodeling job with our ratings this year. New analytical data became available to convince us that we needed to tweak the weighting we gave each position on the field, more in the NFL, but still a great deal in the NCAA. Thus, some schools that may have been ranked in the top 25 to start the season did not climb out of the 30’s, while one or two schools that may have faced what we thought might have been rebuilding seasons stayed in the top 25. We will know soon how well the new system fares. The advanced statistics should be more accurate if history holds up, but the sample size is still small enough that some increased standard deviation and variance could give us some nervous Saturdays in September. By the first of October, the ratings should be about the same as they would be if we kept the old algorithms.

Before we start with out first preview, let us notify you that the preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice. Of course, we also have two major stories that will force us to alter the ratings before week one–What happens with Urban Meyer at Ohio State, and how many players from North Carolina will not dress for the California game in Berkeley.

With our ratings, the total average for the 130 teams must be 100.0, so if we remove 10 points from one school and 7 points from another, those lost 17 points have to be redistributed to the other 128 teams. It isn’t as easy as that, because upwards of 40 schools will need to have their opening week ratings lowered due to the high number of roster adjustments in August, and the remaining 90 schools will then pick up fractions of a point to as much as a couple of points.

Now that the preliminary announcements have been made, let’s start with this year’s first conference preview. Bringing up the rear yet again is the Sun Belt Conference, which ranks 11th out of 11 leagues in FBS power rating.

The SBC has changed quite a bit in 2018. Idaho left the conference and FBS football, as the Vandals dropped to FCS. New Mexico State left to become an independent just one year after breaking a string of 14 consecutive losing seasons and celebrating their first bowl win since 1960.

There are now 10 teams in the Sun Belt Conference, but the league has now split into two divisions, and there will be a conference championship game on December 1st.

Last year, Appalachian State and Troy tied for the league championship, with Arkansas State, Georgia State, and former member New Mexico State joining the co-champions in bowl games. Troy won with their defense and a strong passing game, while Appy State won with their balanced offense and tough pass defense.

Here is how the SBC media voted in the preseason poll.

Team	Votes
East Division	1st Place	Overall
1. Appalachian State	6	46
2. Troy	4	44
3. Georgia State	0	26
4. Georgia Southern	0	22
5. Coastal Carolina	0	12
West Division	1st Place	Overall
1. Arkansas St.	9	49
2. Louisiana-Monroe	0	37
3. South Alabama	1	26
4. Louisiana	0	25
5. Texas State	0	13

There were no votes for overall conference champion.

The PiRate Ratings are a tad different to begin the 2018 season. They agree with the media all up and down in the West Division, but the East is different at the top, where Troy begins the season ranked ahead of Appy State, and Georgia Southern leads Georgia State at the beginning of the season.

East Division
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	0-0	0-0	91.8	93.7	93.7	93.1
Appalachian St.	0-0	0-0	87.5	89.1	88.7	88.4
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-0	82.5	83.7	82.4	82.9
Georgia St.	0-0	0-0	77.6	80.6	78.4	78.9
Coastal Carolina	0-0	0-0	73.2	76.4	73.6	74.4
West Division
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-0	88.0	89.8	89.7	89.2
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-0	87.3	86.7	88.1	87.4
South Alabama	0-0	0-0	81.4	83.8	82.6	82.6
Louisiana	0-0	0-0	78.9	81.1	79.9	80.0
Texas State	0-0	0-0	70.4	73.9	69.9	71.4
Sun Belt Averages			81.9	83.9	82.7	82.8

New Coaches
Georgia Southern elevated Chad Lunsford from interim coach to full-time head coach, and Lunsford will move the Eagles back to the option/zone read offense that former coach Willie Fritz used when GSU went 8-4 and played in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. Lunsford assumed head coaching duties last year when Georgia Southern began the year 0-6 and averaging just 18 points per game. Under Lunsford, the team finished 2-4 and averaged 23.7 points per game. Expect the Eagles to top 25 points per game and approach 28 to 30 this year.

Louisiana begins the Billy Napier era in Lafayette. Napier has an impressive resume that includes working for Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban. He most recently served as offensive coordinator at Arizona State, where the Sun Devils averaged 31.8 yards and 431 yards per game. Napier was offered to remain in Tempe as the offensive coordinator under Coach Herm Edwards, but he took the job in Lafayette instead.

South Alabama welcomes Steve Campbell to Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Campbell enjoyed an outstanding four-year stint at FCS Central Arkansas. He led the Bears to a 33-15 record including back-to-back 10-win seasons and FCS Playoff bids. Campbell served as the offensive line coach at Mississippi State for one season and as offensive coordinator at Middle Tennessee for one season as his only paid FBS coaching experience. He was also a graduate assistant under Pat Dye at Auburn.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

East
Team	Conference	Overall
Troy	8-0	11-2*
Appalachian St.	6-2	9-3
Georgia Southern	4-4	6-6
Georgia St.	2-6	3-9
Coastal Carolina	0-8	1-11
West
Team	Conference	Overall
Arkansas St.	8-0	10-3
UL-Monroe	6-2	7-5
Louisiana	4-4	6-6
South Alabama	2-6	3-9
Texas St.	0-8	1-11
* Troy picked to win SBC Championship Game

Bowl Tie-ins
The SBC does not have a set bowl order. They send eligible teams to bowls to create the best overall games. These are the bowls tie-ins for 2018.

Arizona Bowl in Tucson, AZ
Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, AL
Cure Bowl in Orlando, FL
Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL
New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA

Coming Tomorrow–Conference USA

2016 Sun Belt Conference Football Ratings Preview

The PiRate Ratings kick off its 2016 college football coverage today with the first of 11 previews. We will preview conferences in order of lowest overall average rating to highest, so as we have every year since this league’s inception, we begin with the Sun Belt Conference today.

Last year, Arkansas State ventured to Appalachian State to decide the conference championship in early November. Both teams were undefeated in conference play at the time, and Appy State was a 10-point home favorite. The Mountaineers led 21-14 just before the half, but the Red Wolves scored 26 straight points and won 40-27 and ran the table to finish 8-0 in the league.

This year, the same two teams, plus third place Georgia Southern will contend for the 2016 SBC crown. The PiRates believe four additional teams will compete for bowl eligibility, with three becoming successful, and four teams will try to stay out of the basement and go winless in the league, and possibly winless overall.

With the more favorable FBS vs. FCS schedules this year, it is our opinion that considerably more than the needed teams will be bowl eligible, so this league is likely to see at least one team end the season bowl eligible and not receive a bowl invitation.

Here is how the Sun Belt Media predicted the order of finish in the pre-season media roundup.

2016 Sun Belt Conference Media Poll
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total
1	Appalachian St.	5	114
2	Arkansas St.	5	110
3	Georgia Southern	1	98
4	Georgia St.	0	73
5t	UL-Lafayette	0	70
5t	Troy	0	70
7	South Alabama	0	62
8	Idaho	0	48
9	New Mexico St.	0	37
10	Texas St.	0	30
11	UL-Monroe	0	14

The Beginning PiRate Numbers differ very little from the official poll.

Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	95.5	95.7	97.1	96.1
Arkansas St.	91.9	94.2	94.4	93.5
Georgia Southern	93.0	91.7	95.5	93.4
Troy	83.6	90.2	85.2	86.4
Georgia St.	81.7	87.1	83.9	84.2
Idaho	78.1	85.2	79.7	81.0
UL-Lafayette	76.3	86.8	78.7	80.6
South Alabama	75.3	85.2	76.2	78.9
New Mexico St.	73.7	76.5	74.9	75.0
UL-Monroe	67.9	73.3	68.3	69.8
Texas St.	68.8	69.5	69.5	69.3
Sun Belt Averages	80.5	85.1	82.1	82.6

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings above.

Sun Belt Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Arkansas St.	8-0	9-3	New Orleans
Appalachian St.	7-1	9-3	GoDaddy
Georgia Southern	7-1	8-4	Cammelia
Troy	5-3	7-5	Cure
UL-Lafayette	5-3	6-6	[Independence] *
Idaho	5-3	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Georgia St.	3-5	5-7
South Alabama	2-6	3-9
UL-Monroe	1-7	2-10
New Mexico St.	1-7	1-11
Texas St.	0-8	1-11

*  This is an at-large bowl bid

Next Preview: Tuesday, August 16–Conference USA

2013 Sunbelt Conference Football Preview

2013 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

Once again, the Sunbelt Conference kicks off our PiRate Ratings Previews for a new college football season.  We preview the conferences in reverse order of overall league average, and the SBC brings up the rear once again.  Whereas in past seasons, this league was not that far behind its non-automatic-qualifying conference brethren, changes due to defections and new additions have damaged the league.

New Teams: Georgia State and Texas State

Departed Teams: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, North Texas

2014 Additions: New Mexico St. and Idaho return to the league they left after 2003, while FCS teams Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern move to FBS

2014 Departures: Western Kentucky moves to CUSA

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Sunbelt Conference
Team		Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean	Bias
Louisiana—Monroe		0-0		0-0		96.8		93.0	98.0
Arkansas St.		0-0		0-0		93.6		87.6	93.5
Louisiana—Lafayette		0-0		0-0		92.4		91.6	92.2
Western Kentucky		0-0		0-0		89.5		93.5	90.3
Troy		0-0		0-0		85.5		87.0	87.1
Texas St.		0-0		0-0		80.6		87.8	79.9
South Alabama		0-0		0-0		79.9		82.7	80.5
Georgia St.		0-0		0-0		60.7		71.5	62.1
League Averages						84.9		86.8	85.5
Official Sunbelt Media Poll
Pos.	Team		Points		1st Place
1 (tie)	Louisiana-Lafayette		57		4
1 (tie)	Louisiana-Monroe		57		2
3	Arkansas St.		45		2
4	Western Kentucky		44		0
5	Troy		35		0
6	Texas St.		23		0
7	South Alabama		19		0
8	Georgia St.		8		0

Official Pre-season All-Sunbelt Conference Team

Offense

Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)

David Oku (Arkansas State, Sr., RB)

Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., RB)

J.D. McKissic (Arkansas State, So., WR)

Je’Ron Hamm (ULM, Sr., WR)

Eric Thomas (Troy, Sr. WR)

Wes Saxton (South Alabama, Jr., TE)

Bryce Giddens (Arkansas State, So., OL)

Andre Huval (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., OL)

Josh Allen (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., OL)

Terrence Jones (Troy, Jr., OL)

Sean Conway (WKU, Sr., OL)

Defense

Ryan Carrethers (Arkansas State, Sr., DL)

Christian Ringo (Louisiana-Lafayette, Jr., DL)

Kentarius Caldwell (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DL)

Alex Page (South Alabama, Sr., DL)

Qushaun Lee (Arkansas State, Jr., LB)

Justin Anderson (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., LB)

Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

Sterling Young (Arkansas State, Jr., DB)

Isaiah Newsome (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DB)

Tyrell Pearson (South Alabama, Sr., DB)

Jonathan Dowling (WKU, Sr., DB)

Special Teams

Brian Davis (Arkansas State, Sr., K)

Will Scott (Troy, Sr., P)

Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., Return Specialist)

Preseason Offensive Player of the Year

Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)

Preseason Defensive Player of the Year

Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100    A+

86-92      A

79-85      A-

72-78      B+

65-71      B

58-64      B-

51-57      C+

44-50      C

37-43      C-

30-36      D

0-29        F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team	UL-Monroe Warhawks
Head Coach	Todd Berry
Colors	Maroon & Gold
City	Monroe, LA
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	76
Run Defense	62
Pass Defense	51
Ratings
PiRate	96.8
Mean	93.0
Bias	98.0
Rankings
PiRate	76
Mean	90
Bias	72
Prediction
Conference	6-1
Overall	8-4

Team	Arkansas State Red Wolves
Head Coach	Bryan Harsin
Colors	Scarlet & Black
City	Jonesboro, AR
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-3
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	52
Pass Defense	49
Ratings
PiRate	93.6
Mean	87.6
Bias	93.5
Rankings
PiRate	83
Mean	108
Bias	84
Prediction
Conference	6-1
Overall	9-3

Team	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
Head Coach	Mark Hudspeth
Colors	Vermillion and White
City	Lafayette, LA
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	71
Run Defense	49
Pass Defense	43
Ratings
PiRate	92.4
Mean	91.6
Bias	92.2
Rankings
PiRate	87
Mean	98
Bias	88
Prediction
Conference	5-2
Overall	8-4

Team	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Head Coach	Bobby Petrino
Colors	Red and White
City	Bowling Green, KY
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	60
Run Defense	48
Pass Defense	55
Ratings
PiRate	89.5
Mean	93.5
Bias	90.3
Rankings
PiRate	93
Mean	89
Bias	93
Prediction
Conference	5-2
Overall	8-4

Team	Troy Trojans
Head Coach	Larry Blakeney
Colors	Red, Black, and Gray
City	Troy, AL
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	36
Pass Offense	72
Run Defense	41
Pass Defense	47
Ratings
PiRate	85.5
Mean	87.0
Bias	87.1
Rankings
PiRate	106
Mean	109
Bias	99
Prediction
Conference	3-4
Overall	4-8

Team	Texas State Bobcats
Head Coach	Dennis Franchione
Colors	Maroon and Gold
City	San Marcos, TX
2012 Record
Conference	2-4 (in WAC)
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	52
Pass Offense	38
Run Defense	57
Pass Defense	40
Ratings
PiRate	80.6
Mean	87.8
Bias	79.9
Rankings
PiRate	117
Mean	106
Bias	118
Prediction
Conference	2-5
Overall	4-8

Team	South Alabama Jaguars
Head Coach	Joey Jones
Colors	Red, White, and Blue
City	Mobile, AL
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-11
Grades
Run Offense	50
Pass Offense	46
Run Defense	46
Pass Defense	39
Ratings
PiRate	79.9
Mean	82.7
Bias	80.5
Rankings
PiRate	118
Mean	119
Bias	116
Prediction
Conference	1-6
Overall	2-10

Team	Georgia State Panthers
Head Coach	Trent Miles
Colors	Royal Blue and White
City	Atlanta
2012 Record
Conference	1-7 (in FCS:Colonial Athletic)
Overall	1-10
Grades
Run Offense	17
Pass Offense	35
Run Defense	31
Pass Defense	19
Ratings
PiRate	60.7
Mean	71.5
Bias	62.1
Rankings
PiRate	125
Mean	125
Bias	125
Prediction
Conference	0-7
Overall	0-12