The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus’ Final Predictions For the Field of 68

That Darn Davidson
Call it the Steph Curry Effect. It would happen that the one bid-stealing team in the Conference Tournament part of March Madness would be a team from a conference that played its championship game on Selection Sunday afternoon.

 
At least the Selection Committee had to deal with this contingency as well. If our Bracket Gurus know their stuff, they believe that bubble burst popping sound you just heard emanated from Moraga, California, and Saint Mary’s just became a number one seed in the NIT.

What about the other near miss teams?  Our gurus believe (but not unanimously) the bubbles had already burst on Louisville, Middle Tennessee State, Syracuse, Marquette, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma St.

Now, with Davidson getting in with the automatic bid, some non-guru bracketologists might simple place the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament and remove A-10 member St. Bonaventure. It doesn’t work like that. All of our Gurus already locked the Bonnies into the field. Saint Mary’s had the bottom score of the 68 teams, and with the Gaels sulking as they prepare to host an NIT game (or if our Gurus miss), now the #68 team is Arizona St. The Sun Devils are not really affected by the upset in D.C., if our Gurus have it right. They were already headed to Dayton as one of the Last Four in.

The team other than Saint Mary’s that suffered from Davidson’s win is the former last team in with a bye. USC was the number 64 team on the seed line, but after Davidson removed Saint Mary’s from the 11-seed line, it knocked the Trojans down to the fourth weakest Guru score. Thus, the Trojans are picked to join Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, and Texas in First Four games in Dayton.

Our Gurus had a difficult time narrowing the field of 68 from a field of 71. Word leaked out of the Selection Committee early Sunday morning, that all but one at-large spot had been determined prior to any games this afternoon. Our Gurus took that as a slap across 14 faces. If the Committee had it down to 69, then they could too. Between 8AM and Noon Eastern Time today, the Gurus agreed to vote Louisville, Middle Tennessee St., Marquette, and Syracuse off the Madness Island. Pending the outcome of the Davidson-Rhode Island game, the Gurus had the teams selected. A couple of late games might have affected a couple of seeds, as Cincinnati and Tennessee could swap with a Volunteer win and Bearcat loss. Tennessee lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship, so Cincinnati should stay where they are, win or lose in the AAC Championship Game, which is about to tip off.
Since we are going to press before the American Athletic Conference Tournament ends, we told our Gurus to assume that Cincinnati wins the game and keeps their high seed.  There is a chance a Cinti loss could elevate another team from three to two seed, but we believe the Committee doesn’t want to mess with this contingency this late in the game.  We figured that time was more of the essence than waiting for the last game to finish.
So, with that in mind, here is the PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus’ Final Prediction. If we get 68 out of 68 again this year, it will be a minor miracle. It wasn’t easy for the Gurus to come close to a consensus. Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Baylor all received at least one vote out of 14 Guru lists. Saint Mary’s, Arizona St., and Texas were left off at least 3 of the 14 ballots.

 

Seed Team Conference
1 Virginia ACC
1 Villanova B-EAST
1 Xavier B-EAST
1 Kansas B12
2 Duke ACC
2 Purdue B-TEN
2 North Carolina ACC
2 Cincinnati AAC
3 Michigan St. B-TEN
3 Tennessee SEC
3 Michigan B-TEN
3 Auburn SEC
4 West Virginia B12
4 Arizona PAC-12
4 Texas Tech B12
4 Wichita St. AAC
5 Clemson ACC
5 Gonzaga WCC
5 Kentucky SEC
5 Ohio St. B-TEN
6 Houston AAC
6 Florida SEC
6 Miami (Fla.) ACC
6 Arkansas SEC
7 Texas A&M SEC
7 TCU B12
7 Rhode Island A-10
7 Seton Hall B-EAST
8 Nevada MWC
8 Virginia Tech ACC
8 Missouri SEC
8 Providence B-EAST
9 Alabama SEC
9 Butler B-EAST
9 Florida St. ACC
9 Creighton B-EAST
10 North Carolina St. ACC
10 Kansas St. B12
10 UCLA PAC-12
10 Oklahoma B12
11 USC PAC-12
11 Texas B12
11 St. Bonaventure A-10
11 Arizona St. PAC-12
11 Loyola (Chi.) MVC
11 San Diego St. MWC
12 New Mexico St. WAC
12 South Dakota St. SUMMIT
12 Buffalo MAC
12 Davidson A-10
13 Murray St. OVC
13 UNC-Greensboro SOCON
13 Marshall CUSA
13 Charleston CAA
14 Bucknell PATRIOT
14 Montana B-SKY
14 Wright St. HORIZON
14 Georgia St./UT-Arlington SBC
15 Stephen F. Austin SLC
15 Lipscomb A-SUN
15 Iona MAAC
15 Penn IVY
16 MD-Baltimore Co. A-EAST
16 Cal St. Fullerton B-WEST
16 Long Island NEC
16 Radford B-SOUTH
16 UNC-Central MEAC
16 Texas Southern SWAC

Our Gurus’ Additional Picks

First Four Round in Dayton

11-seed line: Texas vs. Arizona St.

11-seed line: USC vs. St. Bonaventure

16-seed line: Long Island vs. Texas Southern

16-seed line: Radford vs. UNC-Central

 

Last 4 Byes

61. North Carolina St.

62. Kansas St.

63. UCLA

64. Oklahoma

 

First Four Out

69. Saint Mary’s

70. Middle Tennessee St.

71. Louisville

72. Syracuse

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March 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Late Night Update–March 10-11 , 2018

The Bracket Gurus are burning the midnight oil and pouring more coffee as they try to determine who the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee will invite into the Dance, and who will not hear the phone ring on Sunday.

At this point last year, most of the gurus were 100% in agreement on about 66 teams with only three teams really fighting for the final two spots.

There is a bit more dissension this season.  There are six teams seriously in the final discussion for three spots, but this will all change is Davidson beats Rhode Island on Sunday.  The Gurus are 100% in agreement in their belief that St. Bonaventure is in, so the Atlantic 10 could move from two to three teams if the Wildcats upset the Rams.

The teams that need to be worried about Davidson winning include Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Saint Mary’s, Louisville, and Middle Tennessee State.  The Gurus are close to eliminating Marquette, Baylor, and Syracuse, but these teams still appear on exactly one Guru list (three different Gurus have one each of the three).

Check back tomorrow after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Within about 30 minutes of the outcome, we will publish our final Bracket Gurus report in full.  The pressure is on our Gurus.  Last year, they correctly picked all 68 teams in the field, and also correctly picked 61 teams on the correct seed line or just one seed off.

Teams In The Field as of Saturday Night, 11:59 PM EST

Team Bid Conf. W-L
Bucknell AUTO Patriot 25-9
Buffalo AUTO MAC 26-8
Charleston AUTO CAA 26-7
Gonzaga AUTO WCC 30-4
Iona AUTO MAAC 20-13
Kansas AUTO B12 27-7
Lipscomb AUTO A-SUN 23-9
Long Island AUTO NEC 18-16
Loyola (Chi.) AUTO MVC 28-5
Marshall AUTO CUSA 24-10
MD-Baltimore Co. AUTO AE 24-10
Michigan AUTO BTen 28-7
Montana AUTO BSky 26-7
Murray St. AUTO OVC 26-5
New Mexico St. AUTO WAC 28-5
Radford AUTO B-South 22-12
San Diego St. AUTO MWC 22-10
South Dakota St. AUTO Summit 28-6
Stephen F. Austin AUTO SLC 28-6
Texas Southern AUTO SWAC 15-19
UNC-Central AUTO MEAC 19-15
UNC-Greensboro AUTO SoCon 27-7
Villanova AUTO BE 30-4
Virginia AUTO ACC 31-2
Wright St. AUTO Horizon 25-9

December 1, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–December 6-7, 2013

The Big Answer About The PiRate Ratings

“How can you still have Alabama at Number Two, you xoxoxo,?” says an irate Auburn fan.

 

We get this question quite a bit over the years.  Many times in the past as well as this past weekend, an Auburn beat an Alabama, yet they did not pass them in our ratings.

 

The answer to this question is simple.  We do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season, or what is referred to as retrodictive rankings.  If we had these type of rankings, then surely the Auburns of 2013 and past years would be ahead of the Alabamas.

 

Our ratings are predictive.  We rate teams and do not rank them.  Our ratings try to predict what the next week of games will be, thus being called predictive ratings.

 

What our ratings say is that if Alabama and Auburn somehow make it to the NCAA Championship Game, we will have Alabama favored to win.

 

And, to that Auburn fan from Montgomery, here is something else for you to chew on.  It is not like we choose to place the ratings where they go.  Our system is a multiple statistic system that is about 99% mechanical and can be reproduced by anybody that has been taught the method.  The only semi-subjective part of our ratings comes in the home-field advantage, because we choose to believe that home-field advantage changes for every game.  In other words, Oklahoma receives considerably less home-field advantage this week hosting Oklahoma St. than they did when they hosted UL-Monroe the first of the season.

 

The BCS is Still BS, and the New Playoff Will Be as Well

We strongly oppose the BCS bowl system, realizing that it is more political than the party conventions every four years.

 

We suspect the four-team playoff commencing next year will also be more like a meeting of the Illinois General Assembly.

 

Who would be in the four team playoff if it began this season?  Florida St. and Ohio St. would be near locks as of now, while you figure that Alabama would still get in as well as the winner of the Missouri-Auburn game.  What about Oklahoma St.?  What more would a Northern Illinois have to do to smell a selection?

 

Why leave this choice in the hands of football politicians?  This is not the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the number 69 team gets shafted.  The teams that can win the dance are always selected or earn automatic berths.

 

If college football ever wanted to “get it right,” they would adopt a model similar to the basketball tournament.  Until then, it will be perceived as a fraud by a substantial part of the fans.

 

Here is how the PiRates would make it right:

 

1. Go to a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. Give the champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 automatic bids.

 

3. Give the champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which will replace the BCS and have mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.

 

4. Select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. Seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

Let’s look at what could be this year.  First, we must make a couple assumptions, but it will be easy for you the reader to adjust this if different teams win next week.

 

In our world, among the conference championship games, Florida St. beats Duke, Ohio St. beats Michigan St., Arizona St. beats Stanford, and Auburn beats Missouri.  These are not our predictions; they are just being used to make the idea easier to understand.

 

Here are the 12 teams that we would show qualifying for the Tournament.

1. AAC—Central Florida received an automatic bid by finishing at number 16.

2. ACC—Florida St. gets an automatic bid

3. Big 12—Oklahoma St. gets an automatic bid

4. Big Ten—Ohio St. gets an automatic bid

5. CUSA—Marshall does not get a bid by failing to crack the top 16

6. MAC—Northern Illinois gets an automatic bid by making the top 16

7. MWC—Fresno St. narrowly misses out and does not make the tournament

8. Pac-12—Arizona St. gets an automatic bid

9. SEC—Auburn gets an automatic bid

10. SBC—UL-Lafayette does not make the tournament

 

This means five at-large teams will be selected.  Assuming the conference championship games play out as suggested above, here are the five at-large teams.

Alabama

South Carolina

Baylor

Missouri

Stanford

 

This is how the tournament would be seeded:

1. Florida St.

2. Ohio St.

3. Auburn

4. Alabama

5. Oklahoma St.

6. South Carolina

7. Missouri

8. Stanford

9. Baylor

10. Arizona St.

11. Northern Illinois

12. Central Florida

 

The first round games would then be:

Game 1: Oklahoma St. vs. Central Florida

Game 2: South Carolina vs. Northern Illinois

Game 3: Missouri vs. Arizona St.

Game 4: Stanford vs. Baylor

 

The second round games would then be:

Game 5: Alabama vs. Game 1 winner

Game 6: Auburn vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7: Ohio St. vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8: Florida St. vs. Game 4 winner

 

The semifinal round games would then be:

Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 8 winner

Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner

 

Championship

Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Florida St.

136.9

2

Alabama

134.8

3

Ohio St.

128.2

4

Oklahoma St.

127.7

5

Stanford

127.7

6

Arizona St.

127.3

7

Oregon

125.5

8

Baylor

125.2

9

Missouri

125.2

10

L S U

123.2

11

Washington

122.2

12

Auburn

122.2

13

Michigan St.

121.6

14

U C L A

121.3

15

Wisconsin

121.0

16

South Carolina

120.8

17

Clemson

120.6

18

Texas A&M

119.1

19

Ole Miss

117.4

20

Texas

117.1

21

Oklahoma

117.0

22

Georgia

117.0

23

U S C

116.6

24

Arizona

114.1

25

Notre Dame

113.9

26

Oregon St.

113.5

27

Louisville

113.2

28

Kansas St.

112.9

29

Michigan

112.1

30

B Y U

111.6

31

Georgia Tech

111.0

32

Miami

110.5

33

Iowa

109.5

34

North Carolina

108.8

35

Nebraska

108.7

36

Cincinnati

108.5

37

Bowling Green

108.1

38

Utah

108.1

39

Vanderbilt

107.9

40

Mississippi St.

107.9

41

Duke

107.4

42

Penn St.

107.4

43

Florida

107.4

44

T C U

107.3

45

Minnesota

106.8

46

Virginia Tech

106.7

47

Northwestern

106.7

48

Texas Tech

106.3

49

East Carolina

105.9

50

Utah St.

105.8

51

Washington St.

105.8

52

Central Florida

105.7

53

Fresno St.

105.6

54

Northern Illinois

105.1

55

Houston

104.6

56

Marshall

104.2

57

Boise St.

103.9

58

Tennessee

102.8

59

Ball St.

101.7

60

Boston College

101.5

61

Indiana

101.5

62

Pittsburgh

100.5

63

West Virginia

99.7

64

Buffalo

99.7

65

North Texas

99.5

66

Syracuse

99.0

67

Colorado St.

98.9

68

Arkansas

98.6

69

Wake Forest

98.5

70

Maryland

98.0

71

Toledo

98.0

72

San Jose St.

98.0

73

Navy

97.1

74

Illinois

96.8

75

Rice

96.2

76

Kentucky

95.7

77

Iowa St.

95.5

78

S M U

93.5

79

Florida Atlantic

93.4

80

U T S A

93.2

81

San Diego St.

92.7

82

Western Kentucky

92.2

83

Colorado

92.1

84

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.1

85

U N L V

91.2

86

Kansas

90.9

87

Rutgers

90.7

88

Tulane

90.5

89

Arkansas St.

90.5

90

Temple

90.2

91

Middle Tennessee

89.9

92

Memphis

89.8

93

Virginia

89.6

94

Kent St.

89.6

95

North Carolina St.

89.2

96

California

88.2

97

South Alabama

88.0

98

South Florida

87.5

99

Nevada

87.0

100

Purdue

86.5

101

Connecticut

86.3

102

Ohio

86.0

103

Central Michigan

85.9

104

Louisiana–Monroe

85.3

105

Wyoming

84.9

106

Akron

84.5

107

Tulsa

84.1

108

Troy

83.6

109

Hawaii

83.5

110

Army

81.8

111

New Mexico

79.5

112

Texas St.

79.1

113

Louisiana Tech

78.0

114

Western Michigan

76.8

115

U A B

75.3

116

Air Force

74.4

117

U T E P

74.0

118

New Mexico St.

70.5

119

Massachusetts

68.7

120

Southern Miss.

68.0

121

Georgia St.

67.7

122

Miami (O)

67.5

123

Idaho

67.4

124

Eastern Michigan

67.2

125

Florida Int’l

66.4

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

140.4

2

Alabama

131.1

3

Ohio St.

127.4

4

Arizona St.

126.2

5

Missouri

123.7

6

Michigan St.

122.0

7

Wisconsin

121.8

8

Clemson

121.4

9

Oregon

121.4

10

L S U

121.4

11

Auburn

121.4

12

Stanford

121.1

13

Oklahoma St.

120.0

14

South Carolina

118.9

15

Baylor

118.3

16

Washington

118.0

17

U C L A

117.2

18

Texas A&M

116.6

19

Georgia

115.2

20

Ole Miss

114.1

21

U S C

113.1

22

Michigan

112.8

23

Louisville

112.5

24

Oklahoma

111.9

25

Notre Dame

111.7

26

Miami

111.3

27

Arizona

110.8

28

North Carolina

110.4

29

Georgia Tech

110.3

30

B Y U

110.2

31

Houston

110.1

32

Cincinnati

109.9

33

Bowling Green

109.6

34

Texas

109.4

35

Duke

109.1

36

Iowa

109.0

37

Central Florida

108.5

38

East Carolina

108.3

39

Penn St.

108.1

40

Marshall

107.7

41

Northern Illinois

107.7

42

Virginia Tech

107.5

43

Nebraska

107.2

44

Minnesota

107.1

45

Oregon St.

106.5

46

Vanderbilt

106.4

47

Kansas St.

106.1

48

Mississippi St.

105.9

49

Utah

105.7

50

Fresno St.

105.5

51

Ball St.

105.3

52

Florida

105.1

53

Washington St.

105.0

54

Utah St.

104.6

55

Northwestern

104.5

56

Indiana

102.8

57

Boston College

102.2

58

Buffalo

102.0

59

North Texas

101.9

60

T C U

101.7

61

Tennessee

101.6

62

Boise St.

101.5

63

Maryland

101.1

64

Wake Forest

101.0

65

Texas Tech

100.8

66

Arkansas

100.5

67

Pittsburgh

100.1

68

Toledo

100.1

69

Syracuse

99.4

70

Colorado St.

99.0

71

Rice

98.7

72

Navy

98.5

73

Illinois

98.1

74

San Jose St.

96.2

75

U T S A

95.5

76

S M U

94.9

77

Memphis

94.1

78

Florida Atlantic

94.1

79

Middle Tennessee

94.1

80

Kentucky

94.1

81

Western Kentucky

94.1

82

Tulane

94.0

83

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.6

84

West Virginia

92.7

85

U N L V

92.7

86

Rutgers

92.6

87

Kent St.

92.6

88

Colorado

92.4

89

North Carolina St.

92.3

90

San Diego St.

91.8

91

Virginia

91.5

92

South Alabama

91.3

93

Temple

91.2

94

Arkansas St.

90.3

95

Ohio

89.4

96

Central Michigan

88.6

97

Nevada

88.5

98

Iowa St.

88.3

99

Akron

88.1

100

Army

86.9

101

Troy

86.6

102

Louisiana–Monroe

86.4

103

South Florida

85.8

104

Kansas

85.8

105

Wyoming

85.4

106

Purdue

84.7

107

Hawaii

84.3

108

Connecticut

84.2

109

California

84.1

110

Tulsa

84.0

111

Texas St.

83.3

112

New Mexico

82.0

113

Louisiana Tech

79.5

114

Western Michigan

79.0

115

Air Force

77.3

116

U A B

76.5

117

U T E P

76.1

118

New Mexico St.

73.3

119

Massachusetts

73.2

120

Georgia St.

72.6

121

Idaho

71.3

122

Miami (O)

69.7

123

Eastern Michigan

69.4

124

Southern Miss.

68.5

125

Florida Int’l

68.3

 

PiRate Bias

1

Florida St.

138.6

2

Alabama

135.3

3

Oklahoma St.

128.6

4

Ohio St.

128.1

5

Arizona St.

127.2

6

Stanford

126.9

7

Baylor

126.3

8

Missouri

125.4

9

Oregon

125.3

10

L S U

124.0

11

Auburn

122.5

12

Wisconsin

121.6

13

Washington

121.6

14

Clemson

121.5

15

Michigan St.

121.5

16

U C L A

120.5

17

South Carolina

120.3

18

Texas A&M

118.4

19

Georgia

117.0

20

Oklahoma

116.6

21

U S C

116.0

22

Ole Miss

116.0

23

Texas

115.8

24

Notre Dame

112.9

25

Louisville

112.8

26

Arizona

112.7

27

Kansas St.

112.0

28

Oregon St.

111.9

29

Michigan

111.5

30

B Y U

111.5

31

Georgia Tech

110.7

32

Miami

110.5

33

North Carolina

110.1

34

Iowa

109.7

35

Bowling Green

109.3

36

Cincinnati

108.6

37

Mississippi St.

108.1

38

Duke

107.8

39

Utah

107.6

40

Utah St.

107.5

41

Vanderbilt

107.5

42

Nebraska

107.3

43

Penn St.

107.2

44

T C U

107.1

45

Minnesota

106.9

46

Central Florida

106.8

47

East Carolina

106.8

48

Florida

106.8

49

Washington St.

106.7

50

Virginia Tech

106.1

51

Northern Illinois

106.1

52

Northwestern

105.9

53

Marshall

105.9

54

Houston

105.8

55

Texas Tech

105.4

56

Fresno St.

105.3

57

Boise St.

104.9

58

Ball St.

102.8

59

Tennessee

102.1

60

Boston College

101.9

61

Buffalo

101.2

62

Indiana

100.9

63

Pittsburgh

100.3

64

North Texas

100.3

65

Colorado St.

99.9

66

Syracuse

99.3

67

Maryland

99.2

68

Wake Forest

98.7

69

Toledo

98.5

70

West Virginia

98.4

71

San Jose St.

98.4

72

Arkansas

97.8

73

Navy

97.6

74

Rice

96.4

75

Illinois

96.0

76

Kentucky

95.0

77

Iowa St.

94.8

78

Florida Atlantic

94.5

79

U T S A

93.4

80

San Diego St.

93.4

81

S M U

93.1

82

Western Kentucky

92.4

83

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.3

84

U N L V

92.1

85

Colorado

91.4

86

Memphis

91.3

87

Tulane

91.2

88

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89

Arkansas St.

90.6

90

Rutgers

90.3

91

Virginia

90.3

92

Kent St.

90.3

93

Kansas

90.1

94

Temple

89.7

95

North Carolina St.

89.3

96

South Alabama

89.1

97

Nevada

87.4

98

South Florida

87.0

99

Connecticut

86.2

100

California

86.1

101

Ohio

86.0

102

Central Michigan

86.0

103

Wyoming

85.2

104

Akron

85.1

105

Louisiana–Monroe

85.0

106

Troy

84.7

107

Purdue

84.5

108

Hawaii

84.4

109

Tulsa

83.7

110

Army

83.1

111

New Mexico

79.8

112

Texas St.

79.0

113

Western Michigan

77.3

114

Louisiana Tech

76.6

115

U A B

74.7

116

Air Force

74.0

117

U T E P

73.1

118

New Mexico St.

70.0

119

Georgia St.

68.5

120

Massachusetts

68.3

121

Southern Miss.

67.2

122

Idaho

67.1

123

Florida Int’l

65.9

124

Eastern Michigan

65.7

125

Miami (O)

65.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

6-1

10-1

113.2

112.5

112.8

Cincinnati

6-1

9-2

108.5

109.9

108.6

Central Florida

7-0

10-1

105.7

108.5

106.8

Houston

5-3

8-4

104.6

110.1

105.8

S M U

4-3

5-6

93.5

94.9

93.1

Rutgers

2-5

5-6

90.7

92.6

90.3

Temple

1-7

2-10

90.2

91.2

89.7

Memphis

1-6

3-8

89.8

94.1

91.3

South Florida

2-5

2-9

87.5

85.8

87.0

Connecticut

2-5

2-9

86.3

84.2

86.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

97.0

98.4

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

8-0

12-0

136.9

140.4

138.6

Clemson

7-1

10-2

120.6

121.4

121.5

Boston College

4-4

7-5

101.5

102.2

101.9

Syracuse

4-4

6-6

99.0

99.4

99.3

Wake Forest

2-6

4-8

98.5

101.0

98.7

Maryland

3-5

7-5

98.0

101.1

99.2

North Carolina St.

0-8

3-9

89.2

92.3

89.3

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

5-3

7-5

111.0

110.3

110.7

Miami

5-3

9-3

110.5

111.3

110.5

North Carolina

4-4

6-6

108.8

110.4

110.1

Duke

6-2

10-2

107.4

109.1

107.8

Virginia Tech

5-3

8-4

106.7

107.5

106.1

Pittsburgh

3-5

6-6

100.5

100.1

100.3

Virginia

0-8

2-10

89.6

91.5

90.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.6

107.0

106.0

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oklahoma St.

7-1

10-1

127.7

120.0

128.6

Baylor

7-1

10-1

125.2

118.3

126.3

Texas

7-1

8-3

117.1

109.4

115.8

Oklahoma

6-2

9-2

117.0

111.9

116.6

Kansas St.

5-4

7-5

112.9

106.1

112.0

T C U

2-7

4-8

107.3

101.7

107.1

Texas Tech

4-5

7-5

106.3

100.8

105.4

West Virginia

2-7

4-8

99.7

92.7

98.4

Iowa St.

2-7

3-9

95.5

88.3

94.8

Kansas

1-8

3-9

90.9

85.8

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.0

103.5

109.5

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

8-0

12-0

128.2

127.4

128.1

Wisconsin

6-2

9-3

121.0

121.8

121.6

Penn St.

4-4

7-5

107.4

108.1

107.2

Indiana

3-5

5-7

101.5

102.8

100.9

Illinois

1-7

4-8

96.8

98.1

96.0

Purdue

0-8

1-11

86.5

84.7

84.5

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

8-0

11-1

121.6

122.0

121.5

Michigan

3-5

7-5

112.1

112.8

111.5

Iowa

5-3

8-4

109.5

109.0

109.7

Nebraska

5-3

8-4

108.7

107.2

107.3

Northwestern

1-7

5-7

106.7

104.5

105.9

Minnesota

4-4

8-4

106.8

107.1

106.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.8

108.4

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

6-2

9-3

105.9

108.3

106.8

Marshall

7-1

9-3

104.2

107.7

105.9

Florida Atlantic

4-4

6-6

93.4

94.1

94.5

Middle Tennessee

6-2

8-4

89.9

94.1

90.6

U A B

1-7

2-10

75.3

76.5

74.7

Southern Miss.

1-7

1-11

68.0

68.5

67.2

Florida Int’l

1-7

1-11

66.4

68.3

65.9

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

6-2

8-4

99.5

101.9

100.3

Rice

7-1

9-3

96.2

98.7

96.4

U T S A

6-2

7-5

93.2

95.5

93.4

Tulane

5-3

7-5

90.5

94.0

91.2

Tulsa

2-6

3-9

84.1

84.0

83.7

Louisiana Tech

3-5

4-8

78.0

79.5

76.6

U T E P

1-7

2-10

74.0

76.1

73.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.0

89.1

87.2

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

8-4

113.9

111.7

112.9

B Y U

 

8-4

111.6

110.2

111.5

Navy

 

7-4

97.1

98.5

97.6

Army

 

3-8

81.8

86.9

83.1

New Mexico St.

 

2-10

70.5

73.3

70.0

Idaho

 

1-11

67.4

71.3

67.1

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.4

92.0

90.4

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

7-1

9-3

108.1

109.6

109.3

Buffalo

6-2

8-4

99.7

102.0

101.2

Kent St.

3-5

4-8

89.6

92.6

90.3

Ohio

4-4

7-5

86.0

89.4

86.0

Akron

4-4

5-7

84.5

88.1

85.1

Massachusetts

1-7

1-11

68.7

73.2

68.3

Miami (O)

0-8

0-12

67.5

69.7

65.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

8-0

12-0

105.1

107.7

106.1

Ball St.

7-1

10-2

101.7

105.3

102.8

Toledo

5-3

7-5

98.0

100.1

98.5

Central Michigan

5-3

6-6

85.9

88.6

86.0

Western Michigan

1-7

1-11

76.8

79.0

77.3

Eastern Michigan

1-7

2-10

67.2

69.4

65.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.6

90.4

87.8

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

7-1

8-4

105.8

104.6

107.5

Boise St.

6-2

8-4

103.9

101.5

104.9

Colorado St.

5-3

7-6

98.9

99.0

99.9

Wyoming

3-5

5-7

84.9

85.4

85.2

New Mexico

1-7

3-9

79.5

82.0

79.8

Air Force

0-8

2-10

74.4

77.3

74.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

7-1

10-1

105.6

105.5

105.3

San Jose St.

5-3

6-6

98.0

96.2

98.4

San Diego St.

6-2

7-5

92.7

91.8

93.4

U N L V

5-3

7-5

91.2

92.7

92.1

Nevada

3-5

4-8

87.0

88.5

87.4

Hawaii

0-8

1-11

83.5

84.3

84.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.1

92.4

92.7

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Stanford

7-2

10-2

127.7

121.1

126.9

Oregon

7-2

10-2

125.5

121.4

125.3

Washington

5-4

8-4

122.2

118.0

121.6

Oregon St.

4-5

6-6

113.5

106.5

111.9

Washington St.

4-5

6-6

105.8

105.0

106.7

California

0-9

1-11

88.2

84.1

86.1

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

8-1

10-2

127.3

126.2

127.2

U C L A

6-3

9-3

121.3

117.2

120.5

U S C

6-3

9-4

116.6

113.1

116.0

Arizona

4-5

7-5

114.1

110.8

112.7

Utah

2-7

5-7

108.1

105.7

107.6

Colorado

1-8

4-8

92.1

92.4

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.5

110.1

112.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

7-1

11-1

125.2

123.7

125.4

South Carolina

6-2

10-2

120.8

118.9

120.3

Georgia

5-3

8-4

117.0

115.2

117.0

Vanderbilt

4-4

8-4

107.9

106.4

107.5

Florida

3-5

4-8

107.4

105.1

106.8

Tennessee

2-6

4-8

102.8

101.6

102.1

Kentucky

0-8

2-10

95.7

94.1

95.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

7-1

11-1

134.8

131.1

135.3

L S U

5-3

9-3

123.2

121.4

124.0

Auburn

7-1

11-1

122.2

121.4

122.5

Texas A&M

4-4

8-4

119.1

116.6

118.4

Ole Miss

3-5

7-5

117.4

114.1

116.0

Mississippi St.

3-5

6-6

107.9

105.9

108.1

Arkansas

0-8

3-9

98.6

100.5

97.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.3

112.6

114.0

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Western Kentucky

4-3

8-4

92.2

94.1

92.4

Louisiana–Lafayette

5-1

8-3

92.1

93.6

92.3

Arkansas St.

5-2

7-5

90.5

90.3

90.6

South Alabama

3-3

5-6

88.0

91.3

89.1

Louisiana–Monroe

4-3

6-6

85.3

86.4

85.0

Troy

4-3

6-6

83.6

86.6

84.7

Texas St.

2-5

6-6

79.1

83.3

79.0

Georgia St.

0-7

0-12

67.7

72.6

68.5

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.8

87.3

85.2

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

7-4

88.1

90.4

94.8

Old Dominion

 

8-4

83.4

84.7

89.2

Appalachian St.

 

3-8

74.1

73.0

80.8

Charlotte

 

5-6

58.4

63.0

65.5

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

76.0

77.8

82.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Cincinnati Louisville

-2.2

-0.1

-1.7

Bowling Green (n) Northern Illinois (Det.)

3.0

1.9

3.2

Oklahoma Oklahoma St.

-8.7

-6.1

-10.0

S M U Central Florida

-9.2

-10.6

-10.7

Connecticut Memphis

-0.5

-6.9

-2.1

Baylor Texas

10.6

11.4

13.0

Missouri (n) Auburn (Atlanta)

3.0

2.3

2.9

Rutgers South Florida

6.2

9.8

6.3

Arizona St. Stanford

2.6

8.1

3.3

Florida St. (n) Duke (Charlotte)

29.5

31.3

30.8

South Alabama UL-Lafayette

-2.1

-0.3

-1.2

Ohio St. (n) Michigan St. (Indpls.)

6.6

5.4

6.6

 

Bowl Projections

We are playing the contrarian this week.  Our bowl projections show us going with Missouri to beat Auburn, Bowling Green to beat Northern Illinois, Arizona St. to beat Stanford, and Michigan St. to beat Ohio St.  If you want the standard fare, you can find about 20 other sites with conventional bowl projections this week.

 

If Missouri beats Auburn and Michigan St. beats Ohio St., we believe the Tigers will narrowly edge out Alabama for the number two spot in the BCS and advance to the title game.

 

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

U N L V

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Fresno St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

Colorado St.

vs.

Ball St.

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette %

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Toledo *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

San Diego St.

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Northern Illinois

vs.

Syracuse *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Washington St. *

Military Bowl

Boston College

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Minnesota

vs.

North Carolina *

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U %

Pinstripe

Houston

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Louisville

vs.

Virginia Tech

Russell Athletic

Cincinnati

vs.

Clemson

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Kansas St.

vs.

Nebraska

Armed Forces

Boise St.

vs.

Navy %

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Oklahoma

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

U C L A

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Maryland

Sun

Miami

vs.

U S C

Liberty

Mississippi St.

vs.

Marshall

Chick-fil-A

Duke

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Pittsburgh *

Gator

Michigan

vs.

Georgia

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Iowa

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Auburn

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Central Florida

Sugar

Ohio St.

vs.

Baylor

Cotton

Texas A&M

vs.

Texas

Orange

Alabama

vs.

Oregon

BBVA Compass Bowl

Rutgers

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Bowling Green

BCS Championship

Florida St.

vs.

Missouri

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

% Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

 

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