PiRate Ratings–College Basketball 2021-22 Debut

Welcome bask to the PiRate Ratings College Basketball coverage for 2021-22. We are excited about a few new changes and the resumption of some old methods here this year. Today, we start our coverage with two posts. This one will include our initial ratings for the season of the 358 Division 1 teams. The post coming later today will include our opening Bracketology for the season.

Every week until Conference Tournament Championships commence, we plan on releasing updated ratings on Monday and Friday mornings (hopefully before Noon Eastern Time). We will issue updated Bracketology on Monday afternoons through Mid-February, at which time the updates will increase to two per week until March. Once the conference tournaments commence and surprise winners and losers emerge, we will begin to update the Bubble daily.

During the week, we will issue spreads of games between Power Conference teams. Because our method for coming up with game spreads is somewhat labor intensive and not 100% mechanical, it takes too long to calculate spreads on every game. Our method involves a game-specific home court advantage for each game, because when teams play more than once a week and fatigue must be adjusted for the road team in every game. Toss in the Covid issue, and home court advantage can move to 8-10 points. If the home team is in trouble, the visiting team might actually get points!

Also from time to time, we will issue commentary or analysis of the game. Our annual publication of top Low-Major and Mid-Major head coaches and top assistant coaches ready for the big time has been one of our most read annual publications, and because so many of the guys on our list are now coaching at big time schools, we expect this year’s edition will be expanded some. Expect that post in Mid-January.

By far our most read posts every year are our “Bracketnomic” reports for March Madness. We use technical data that has been back-tested for more than two decades, with some data back-tested to 1939, to attempt to isolate the true contenders for the National Championship. Baylor and Gonzaga were both on that list last year. Our own creation, The R+T Rating, has helped us locate favorites ripe for early NCAA Tournament upsets, and it has helped us locate sleeper teams that could surprise. In the past, we saw George Mason as a sleeper when they sneaked into the Final Four. We saw the same with Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler. But, there was a year where we not only picked 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast to upset 2-seed Georgetown, we said it could be by double digits. When FGCU ran the Hoyas into the ground that night, our ratings briefly received a national accolade, and many of you reading this today became subscribers to this site.

Without further adieu, here are our opening ratings for 2021-22. Thank you for stopping by. We hope you stick around for the season.

PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Conference
1	Gonzaga	122.6	West Coast
2	Baylor	121.1	Big 12
3	Arizona	120.7	Pac-12
4	Purdue	120.3	Big Ten
5	Houston	120.0	American Athletic
6	Kansas	119.5	Big 12
7	Duke	118.6	Atlantic Coast
8	LSU	118.1	Southeastern
9	Tennessee	117.9	Southeastern
10	UCLA	117.5	Pac-12
11	Auburn	117.4	Southeastern
12	Kentucky	117.3	Southeastern
13	Illinois	116.9	Big Ten
14	Alabama	116.1	Southeastern
15	Villanova	115.9	Big East
16	Ohio St.	115.7	Big Ten
17	Michigan St.	115.4	Big Ten
18	Michigan	115.3	Big Ten
19	USC	114.9	Pac-12
20	Texas Tech	114.9	Big 12
21	Iowa	114.8	Big Ten
22	Connecticut	114.6	Big East
23	Texas	114.5	Big 12
24	Xavier	114.5	Big East
25	Seton Hall	114.4	Big East
26	Virginia Tech	113.8	Atlantic Coast
27	Florida	113.6	Southeastern
28	Indiana	113.3	Big Ten
29	Memphis	113.3	American Athletic
30	Loyola Chicago	113.1	Missouri Valley
31	BYU	112.6	West Coast
32	Oklahoma	112.3	Big 12
33	North Carolina	112.0	Atlantic Coast
34	Colorado St.	111.6	Mountain West
35	Florida St.	111.6	Atlantic Coast
36	Wisconsin	111.3	Big Ten
37	West Virginia	111.3	Big 12
38	Arkansas	111.2	Southeastern
39	San Francisco	111.2	West Coast
40	Mississippi St.	110.8	Southeastern
41	Clemson	110.8	Atlantic Coast
42	Saint Mary’s	110.8	West Coast
43	Northwestern	110.8	Big Ten
44	Oklahoma St.	110.7	Big 12
45	UAB	110.5	Conference USA
46	San Diego St.	110.0	Mountain West
47	Washington St.	109.9	Pac-12
48	Louisville	109.8	Atlantic Coast
49	Providence	109.7	Big East
50	Iowa St.	109.6	Big 12
51	Utah St.	109.5	Mountain West
52	Maryland	109.3	Big Ten
53	Boise St.	109.1	Mountain West
54	UCF	109.1	American Athletic
55	Belmont	109.0	Ohio Valley
56	Oregon	108.9	Pac-12
57	Creighton	108.9	Big East
58	Davidson	108.6	Atlantic 10
59	TCU	108.5	Big 12
60	Richmond	108.4	Atlantic 10
61	SMU	108.4	American Athletic
62	Wichita St.	108.4	American Athletic
63	Wake Forest	108.2	Atlantic Coast
64	St. Bonaventure	108.0	Atlantic 10
65	Murray St.	107.9	Ohio Valley
66	Texas A&M	107.8	Southeastern
67	Notre Dame	107.8	Atlantic Coast
68	Minnesota	107.7	Big Ten
69	Cincinnati	107.7	American Athletic
70	Saint Louis	107.6	Atlantic 10
71	St. John’s	107.5	Big East
72	Utah	107.5	Pac-12
73	DePaul	107.4	Big East
74	Marquette	107.4	Big East
75	Virginia	107.3	Atlantic Coast
76	VCU	107.3	Atlantic 10
77	Kansas St.	107.2	Big 12
78	Syracuse	107.2	Atlantic Coast
79	Rhode Island	107.1	Atlantic 10
80	Buffalo	107.1	Mid-American
81	South Dakota St.	107.0	Summit
82	Penn St.	107.0	Big Ten
83	Missouri St.	107.0	Missouri Valley
84	Fresno St.	106.9	Mountain West
85	Vanderbilt	106.8	Southeastern
86	Wyoming	106.7	Mountain West
87	Nevada	106.7	Mountain West
88	Drake	106.6	Missouri Valley
89	Iona	106.6	Metro Atlantic
90	Colorado	106.4	Pac-12
91	Santa Clara	106.3	West Coast
92	Louisiana Tech	105.8	Conference USA
93	Stanford	105.7	Pac-12
94	Chattanooga	105.7	Southern
95	Arizona St.	105.7	Pac-12
96	Toledo	105.7	Mid-American
97	South Carolina	105.6	Southeastern
98	North Texas	105.6	Conference USA
99	Ohio	105.4	Mid-American
100	UC Irvine	105.4	Big West
101	Vermont	105.4	America East
102	Dayton	105.3	Atlantic 10
103	Wofford	105.2	Southern
104	Rutgers	105.1	Big Ten
105	Miami FL	105.0	Atlantic Coast
106	Mississippi	104.8	Southeastern
107	Towson	104.8	Colonial Athletic
108	New Mexico St.	104.8	Western Athletic
109	Monmouth	104.7	Metro Atlantic
110	N.C. State	104.5	Atlantic Coast
111	Western Kentucky	104.5	Conference USA
112	Georgia Tech	104.4	Atlantic Coast
113	Wagner	104.4	Northeast
114	Butler	104.4	Big East
115	California	104.3	Pac-12
116	Hofstra	104.2	Colonial Athletic
117	Furman	104.0	Southern
118	Abilene Christian	103.9	Western Athletic
119	Grand Canyon	103.7	Western Athletic
120	Northern Iowa	103.7	Missouri Valley
121	Oakland	103.5	Horizon
122	Georgetown	103.5	Big East
123	Loyola Marymount	103.2	West Coast
124	George Mason	103.1	Atlantic 10
125	Utah Valley	103.1	Western Athletic
126	UNLV	102.9	Mountain West
127	Liberty	102.7	Atlantic Sun
128	Boston College	102.6	Atlantic Coast
129	Colgate	102.6	Patriot League
130	Akron	102.6	Mid-American
131	Southern Utah	102.5	Big Sky
132	Princeton	102.5	Ivy League
133	Navy	102.4	Patriot League
134	Massachusetts	102.2	Atlantic 10
135	Jacksonville St.	102.2	Atlantic Sun
136	Southern Illinois	102.1	Missouri Valley
137	UC Santa Barbara	102.1	Big West
138	UC Riverside	102.0	Big West
139	Nebraska	101.9	Big Ten
140	Tulsa	101.8	American Athletic
141	Oral Roberts	101.6	Summit
142	James Madison	101.5	Colonial Athletic
143	Weber St.	101.5	Big Sky
144	Texas St.	101.5	Sun Belt
145	Northeastern	101.5	Colonial Athletic
146	Morehead St.	101.5	Ohio Valley
147	Bradley	101.4	Missouri Valley
148	Yale	101.3	Ivy League
149	Miami OH	101.3	Mid-American
150	Oregon St.	101.2	Pac-12
151	Georgia St.	101.2	Sun Belt
152	South Alabama	101.1	Sun Belt
153	Cleveland St.	101.1	Horizon
154	Marshall	101.1	Conference USA
155	Kent St.	101.0	Mid-American
156	Temple	101.0	American Athletic
157	East Tennessee St.	100.8	Southern
158	Boston University	100.6	Patriot League
159	Stephen F. Austin	100.6	Western Athletic
160	Bowling Green	100.6	Mid-American
161	Delaware	100.3	Colonial Athletic
162	Rice	100.3	Conference USA
163	Washington	100.3	Pac-12
164	Brown	100.1	Ivy League
165	Missouri	100.1	Southeastern
166	Eastern Kentucky	100.1	Atlantic Sun
167	Tulane	99.9	American Athletic
168	Pittsburgh	99.9	Atlantic Coast
169	Appalachian St.	99.9	Sun Belt
170	Coastal Carolina	99.8	Sun Belt
171	Fairfield	99.8	Metro Atlantic
172	Drexel	99.6	Colonial Athletic
173	Harvard	99.6	Ivy League
174	Florida Gulf Coast	99.5	Atlantic Sun
175	Saint Joseph’s	99.5	Atlantic 10
176	Texas Southern	99.5	Southwestern Athletic
177	Georgia	99.4	Southeastern
178	Montana St.	99.4	Big Sky
179	Wright St.	99.4	Horizon
180	North Dakota St.	99.4	Summit
181	Charleston	99.3	Colonial Athletic
182	Winthrop	99.3	Big South
183	Seattle	99.3	Western Athletic
184	UNC Greensboro	99.2	Southern
185	UTEP	99.2	Conference USA
186	East Carolina	99.1	American Athletic
187	Longwood	99.1	Big South
188	Old Dominion	99.1	Conference USA
189	Tarleton St.	99.1	Western Athletic
190	San Diego	99.1	West Coast
191	Louisiana	99.0	Sun Belt
192	Western Illinois	98.9	Summit
193	Valparaiso	98.9	Missouri Valley
194	Charlotte	98.9	Conference USA
195	Duquesne	98.8	Atlantic 10
196	Montana	98.8	Big Sky
197	Indiana St.	98.8	Missouri Valley
198	Campbell	98.7	Big South
199	Middle Tennessee	98.6	Conference USA
200	Niagara	98.6	Metro Atlantic
201	New Hampshire	98.5	America East
202	Cal St. Fullerton	98.4	Big West
203	Northern Colorado	98.3	Big Sky
204	Florida Atlantic	98.2	Conference USA
205	Georgia Southern	98.1	Sun Belt
206	Stony Brook	98.1	America East
207	Cornell	98.1	Ivy League
208	UC Davis	98.0	Big West
209	Marist	98.0	Metro Atlantic
210	Cal Baptist	97.9	Western Athletic
211	UMass Lowell	97.9	America East
212	Fordham	97.8	Atlantic 10
213	Eastern Washington	97.7	Big Sky
214	Detroit Mercy	97.7	Horizon
215	UMKC	97.6	Summit
216	Nicholls St.	97.6	Southland
217	Mercer	97.6	Southern
218	Northern Kentucky	97.5	Horizon
219	Saint Peter’s	97.5	Metro Atlantic
220	Jacksonville	97.5	Atlantic Sun
221	Penn	97.5	Ivy League
222	Louisiana Monroe	97.5	Sun Belt
223	New Mexico	97.5	Mountain West
224	Bellarmine	97.5	Atlantic Sun
225	FIU	97.4	Conference USA
226	Gardner Webb	97.3	Big South
227	VMI	97.2	Southern
228	Illinois St.	97.1	Missouri Valley
229	Arkansas St.	97.1	Sun Belt
230	Howard	97.0	Mideastern Athletic
231	Sam Houston St.	96.9	Western Athletic
232	Hawaii	96.8	Big West
233	Bryant	96.8	Northeast
234	Cal St. Bakersfield	96.6	Big West
235	UMBC	96.5	America East
236	Youngstown St.	96.5	Horizon
237	South Florida	96.5	American Athletic
238	Pepperdine	96.4	West Coast
239	UNC Asheville	96.2	Big South
240	Jackson St.	96.1	Southwestern Athletic
241	Quinnipiac	95.8	Metro Atlantic
242	Dartmouth	95.8	Ivy League
243	UT Arlington	95.8	Sun Belt
244	Pacific	95.7	West Coast
245	Troy	95.5	Sun Belt
246	South Dakota	95.5	Summit
247	Samford	95.4	Southern
248	La Salle	95.4	Atlantic 10
249	Evansville	95.3	Missouri Valley
250	UC San Diego	95.3	Big West
251	The Citadel	95.2	Southern
252	Portland St.	95.1	Big Sky
253	Manhattan	95.1	Metro Atlantic
254	St. Francis PA	95.0	Northeast
255	Illinois Chicago	95.0	Horizon
256	Norfolk St.	94.9	Mideastern Athletic
257	Stetson	94.9	Atlantic Sun
258	LIU	94.9	Northeast
259	George Washington	94.8	Atlantic 10
260	Southern	94.8	Southwestern Athletic
261	Tennessee Tech	94.4	Ohio Valley
262	Radford	94.4	Big South
263	Milwaukee	94.3	Horizon
264	Ball St.	94.3	Mid-American
265	Merrimack	94.2	Northeast
266	Portland	94.2	West Coast
267	North Alabama	94.1	Atlantic Sun
268	Purdue Fort Wayne	94.0	Horizon
269	Kennesaw St.	94.0	Atlantic Sun
270	Loyola MD	93.9	Patriot League
271	Prairie View A&M	93.8	Southwestern Athletic
272	High Point	93.7	Big South
273	Lipscomb	93.5	Atlantic Sun
274	Eastern Michigan	93.5	Mid-American
275	Army	93.4	Patriot League
276	NJIT	93.4	America East
277	North Carolina A&T	93.4	Big South
278	Long Beach St.	93.4	Big West
279	San Jose St.	93.3	Mountain West
280	Canisius	93.3	Metro Atlantic
281	Austin Peay	93.3	Ohio Valley
282	Presbyterian	93.3	Big South
283	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	93.2	Southland
284	Elon	93.2	Colonial Athletic
285	Sacred Heart	93.2	Northeast
286	North Florida	93.1	Atlantic Sun
287	Hartford	93.1	America East
288	UNC Wilmington	93.0	Colonial Athletic
289	Albany	93.0	America East
290	UT Rio Grande Valley	92.9	Western Athletic
291	St. Thomas	92.8	Summit
292	Siena	92.7	Metro Atlantic
293	Air Force	92.7	Mountain West
294	SIU Edwardsville	92.5	Ohio Valley
295	Western Carolina	92.5	Southern
296	Southern Miss	92.4	Conference USA
297	Rider	92.4	Metro Atlantic
298	Mount St. Mary’s	92.4	Northeast
299	Cal Poly	92.1	Big West
300	New Orleans	92.1	Southland
301	Robert Morris	92.0	Horizon
302	Dixie St.	91.9	Western Athletic
303	Tennessee St.	91.8	Ohio Valley
304	Cal St. Northridge	91.8	Big West
305	Alcorn St.	91.6	Southwestern Athletic
306	Lafayette	91.5	Patriot League
307	Florida A&M	91.5	Southwestern Athletic
308	Binghamton	91.4	America East
309	Coppin St.	91.2	Mideastern Athletic
310	Southeastern Louisiana	91.1	Southland
311	Sacramento St.	91.0	Big Sky
312	UTSA	91.0	Conference USA
313	Bucknell	90.9	Patriot League
314	Idaho St.	90.7	Big Sky
315	Lamar	90.7	Western Athletic
316	Green Bay	90.7	Horizon
317	Little Rock	90.7	Sun Belt
318	Northern Arizona	90.6	Big Sky
319	McNeese St.	90.4	Southland
320	St. Francis NY	90.3	Northeast
321	Southeast Missouri St.	90.2	Ohio Valley
322	North Carolina Central	90.2	Mideastern Athletic
323	Morgan St.	90.0	Mideastern Athletic
324	Northern Illinois	89.7	Mid-American
325	American	89.6	Patriot League
326	Lehigh	89.4	Patriot League
327	Denver	89.1	Summit
328	Maryland Eastern Shore	88.9	Mideastern Athletic
329	USC Upstate	88.8	Big South
330	Tennessee Martin	88.6	Ohio Valley
331	Central Michigan	88.6	Mid-American
332	Grambling St.	88.5	Southwestern Athletic
333	Hampton	88.4	Big South
334	Western Michigan	88.3	Mid-American
335	Idaho	88.1	Big Sky
336	Northwestern St.	87.3	Southland
337	South Carolina St.	87.2	Mideastern Athletic
338	Alabama A&M	87.1	Southwestern Athletic
339	Central Connecticut	86.9	Northeast
340	Nebraska Omaha	86.9	Summit
341	William & Mary	86.8	Colonial Athletic
342	Fairleigh Dickinson	86.7	Northeast
343	Alabama St.	86.7	Southwestern Athletic
344	North Dakota	86.6	Summit
345	Holy Cross	86.5	Patriot League
346	Bethune Cookman	86.0	Southwestern Athletic
347	Columbia	85.9	Ivy League
348	Central Arkansas	85.5	Atlantic Sun
349	Charleston Southern	85.2	Big South
350	Incarnate Word	85.1	Southland
351	Houston Baptist	84.7	Southland
352	Maine	84.4	America East
353	Eastern Illinois	84.3	Ohio Valley
354	Chicago St.	82.7	Western Athletic
355	IUPUI	82.6	Horizon
356	Arkansas Pine Bluff	82.3	Southwestern Athletic
357	Delaware St.	78.8	Mideastern Athletic
358	Mississippi Valley St.	74.3	Southwestern Athletic

PiRate Ratings Alphabetically

Team	PiRate
Abilene Christian	103.9
Air Force	92.7
Akron	102.6
Alabama	116.1
Alabama A&M	87.1
Alabama St.	86.7
Albany	93.0
Alcorn St.	91.6
American	89.6
Appalachian St.	99.9
Arizona	120.7
Arizona St.	105.7
Arkansas	111.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff	82.3
Arkansas St.	97.1
Army	93.4
Auburn	117.4
Austin Peay	93.3
Ball St.	94.3
Baylor	121.1
Bellarmine	97.5
Belmont	109.0
Bethune Cookman	86.0
Binghamton	91.4
Boise St.	109.1
Boston College	102.6
Boston University	100.6
Bowling Green	100.6
Bradley	101.4
Brown	100.1
Bryant	96.8
Bucknell	90.9
Buffalo	107.1
Butler	104.4
BYU	112.6
Cal Baptist	97.9
Cal Poly	92.1
Cal St. Bakersfield	96.6
Cal St. Fullerton	98.4
Cal St. Northridge	91.8
California	104.3
Campbell	98.7
Canisius	93.3
Central Arkansas	85.5
Central Connecticut	86.9
Central Michigan	88.6
Charleston	99.3
Charleston Southern	85.2
Charlotte	98.9
Chattanooga	105.7
Chicago St.	82.7
Cincinnati	107.7
Clemson	110.8
Cleveland St.	101.1
Coastal Carolina	99.8
Colgate	102.6
Colorado	106.4
Colorado St.	111.6
Columbia	85.9
Connecticut	114.6
Coppin St.	91.2
Cornell	98.1
Creighton	108.9
Dartmouth	95.8
Davidson	108.6
Dayton	105.3
Delaware	100.3
Delaware St.	78.8
Denver	89.1
DePaul	107.4
Detroit Mercy	97.7
Dixie St.	91.9
Drake	106.6
Drexel	99.6
Duke	118.6
Duquesne	98.8
East Carolina	99.1
East Tennessee St.	100.8
Eastern Illinois	84.3
Eastern Kentucky	100.1
Eastern Michigan	93.5
Eastern Washington	97.7
Elon	93.2
Evansville	95.3
Fairfield	99.8
Fairleigh Dickinson	86.7
FIU	97.4
Florida	113.6
Florida A&M	91.5
Florida Atlantic	98.2
Florida Gulf Coast	99.5
Florida St.	111.6
Fordham	97.8
Fresno St.	106.9
Furman	104.0
Gardner Webb	97.3
George Mason	103.1
George Washington	94.8
Georgetown	103.5
Georgia	99.4
Georgia Southern	98.1
Georgia St.	101.2
Georgia Tech	104.4
Gonzaga	122.6
Grambling St.	88.5
Grand Canyon	103.7
Green Bay	90.7
Hampton	88.4
Hartford	93.1
Harvard	99.6
Hawaii	96.8
High Point	93.7
Hofstra	104.2
Holy Cross	86.5
Houston	120.0
Houston Baptist	84.7
Howard	97.0
Idaho	88.1
Idaho St.	90.7
Illinois	116.9
Illinois Chicago	95.0
Illinois St.	97.1
Incarnate Word	85.1
Indiana	113.3
Indiana St.	98.8
Iona	106.6
Iowa	114.8
Iowa St.	109.6
IUPUI	82.6
Jackson St.	96.1
Jacksonville	97.5
Jacksonville St.	102.2
James Madison	101.5
Kansas	119.5
Kansas St.	107.2
Kennesaw St.	94.0
Kent St.	101.0
Kentucky	117.3
La Salle	95.4
Lafayette	91.5
Lamar	90.7
Lehigh	89.4
Liberty	102.7
Lipscomb	93.5
Little Rock	90.7
LIU	94.9
Long Beach St.	93.4
Longwood	99.1
Louisiana	99.0
Louisiana Monroe	97.5
Louisiana Tech	105.8
Louisville	109.8
Loyola Chicago	113.1
Loyola Marymount	103.2
Loyola MD	93.9
LSU	118.1
Maine	84.4
Manhattan	95.1
Marist	98.0
Marquette	107.4
Marshall	101.1
Maryland	109.3
Maryland Eastern Shore	88.9
Massachusetts	102.2
McNeese St.	90.4
Memphis	113.3
Mercer	97.6
Merrimack	94.2
Miami FL	105.0
Miami OH	101.3
Michigan	115.3
Michigan St.	115.4
Middle Tennessee	98.6
Milwaukee	94.3
Minnesota	107.7
Mississippi	104.8
Mississippi St.	110.8
Mississippi Valley St.	74.3
Missouri	100.1
Missouri St.	107.0
Monmouth	104.7
Montana	98.8
Montana St.	99.4
Morehead St.	101.5
Morgan St.	90.0
Mount St. Mary’s	92.4
Murray St.	107.9
N.C. State	104.5
Navy	102.4
Nebraska	101.9
Nebraska Omaha	86.9
Nevada	106.7
New Hampshire	98.5
New Mexico	97.5
New Mexico St.	104.8
New Orleans	92.1
Niagara	98.6
Nicholls St.	97.6
NJIT	93.4
Norfolk St.	94.9
North Alabama	94.1
North Carolina	112.0
North Carolina A&T	93.4
North Carolina Central	90.2
North Dakota	86.6
North Dakota St.	99.4
North Florida	93.1
North Texas	105.6
Northeastern	101.5
Northern Arizona	90.6
Northern Colorado	98.3
Northern Illinois	89.7
Northern Iowa	103.7
Northern Kentucky	97.5
Northwestern	110.8
Northwestern St.	87.3
Notre Dame	107.8
Oakland	103.5
Ohio	105.4
Ohio St.	115.7
Oklahoma	112.3
Oklahoma St.	110.7
Old Dominion	99.1
Oral Roberts	101.6
Oregon	108.9
Oregon St.	101.2
Pacific	95.7
Penn	97.5
Penn St.	107.0
Pepperdine	96.4
Pittsburgh	99.9
Portland	94.2
Portland St.	95.1
Prairie View A&M	93.8
Presbyterian	93.3
Princeton	102.5
Providence	109.7
Purdue	120.3
Purdue Fort Wayne	94.0
Quinnipiac	95.8
Radford	94.4
Rhode Island	107.1
Rice	100.3
Richmond	108.4
Rider	92.4
Robert Morris	92.0
Rutgers	105.1
Sacramento St.	91.0
Sacred Heart	93.2
Saint Joseph’s	99.5
Saint Louis	107.6
Saint Mary’s	110.8
Saint Peter’s	97.5
Sam Houston St.	96.9
Samford	95.4
San Diego	99.1
San Diego St.	110.0
San Francisco	111.2
San Jose St.	93.3
Santa Clara	106.3
Seattle	99.3
Seton Hall	114.4
Siena	92.7
SIU Edwardsville	92.5
SMU	108.4
South Alabama	101.1
South Carolina	105.6
South Carolina St.	87.2
South Dakota	95.5
South Dakota St.	107.0
South Florida	96.5
Southeast Missouri St.	90.2
Southeastern Louisiana	91.1
Southern	94.8
Southern Illinois	102.1
Southern Miss	92.4
Southern Utah	102.5
St. Bonaventure	108.0
St. Francis NY	90.3
St. Francis PA	95.0
St. John’s	107.5
St. Thomas	92.8
Stanford	105.7
Stephen F. Austin	100.6
Stetson	94.9
Stony Brook	98.1
Syracuse	107.2
Tarleton St.	99.1
TCU	108.5
Temple	101.0
Tennessee	117.9
Tennessee Martin	88.6
Tennessee St.	91.8
Tennessee Tech	94.4
Texas	114.5
Texas A&M	107.8
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	93.2
Texas Southern	99.5
Texas St.	101.5
Texas Tech	114.9
The Citadel	95.2
Toledo	105.7
Towson	104.8
Troy	95.5
Tulane	99.9
Tulsa	101.8
UAB	110.5
UC Davis	98.0
UC Irvine	105.4
UC Riverside	102.0
UC San Diego	95.3
UC Santa Barbara	102.1
UCF	109.1
UCLA	117.5
UMass Lowell	97.9
UMBC	96.5
UMKC	97.6
UNC Asheville	96.2
UNC Greensboro	99.2
UNC Wilmington	93.0
UNLV	102.9
USC	114.9
USC Upstate	88.8
UT Arlington	95.8
UT Rio Grande Valley	92.9
Utah	107.5
Utah St.	109.5
Utah Valley	103.1
UTEP	99.2
UTSA	91.0
Valparaiso	98.9
Vanderbilt	106.8
VCU	107.3
Vermont	105.4
Villanova	115.9
Virginia	107.3
Virginia Tech	113.8
VMI	97.2
Wagner	104.4
Wake Forest	108.2
Washington	100.3
Washington St.	109.9
Weber St.	101.5
West Virginia	111.3
Western Carolina	92.5
Western Illinois	98.9
Western Kentucky	104.5
Western Michigan	88.3
Wichita St.	108.4
William & Mary	86.8
Winthrop	99.3
Wisconsin	111.3
Wofford	105.2
Wright St.	99.4
Wyoming	106.7
Xavier	114.5
Yale	101.3
Youngstown St.	96.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

America East
Team	Rating
Vermont	105.4
New Hampshire	98.5
Stony Brook	98.1
UMass Lowell	97.9
UMBC	96.5
NJIT	93.4
Hartford	93.1
Albany	93.0
Binghamton	91.4
Maine	84.4
American Athletic
Team	Rating
Houston	120.0
Memphis	113.3
UCF	109.1
SMU	108.4
Wichita St.	108.4
Cincinnati	107.7
Tulsa	101.8
Temple	101.0
Tulane	99.9
East Carolina	99.1
South Florida	96.5
Atlantic 10
Team	Rating
Davidson	108.6
Richmond	108.4
St. Bonaventure	108.0
Saint Louis	107.6
VCU	107.3
Rhode Island	107.1
Dayton	105.3
George Mason	103.1
Massachusetts	102.2
Saint Joseph’s	99.5
Duquesne	98.8
Fordham	97.8
La Salle	95.4
George Washington	94.8
Atlantic Coast
Team	Rating
Duke	118.6
Virginia Tech	113.8
North Carolina	112.0
Florida St.	111.6
Clemson	110.8
Louisville	109.8
Wake Forest	108.2
Notre Dame	107.8
Virginia	107.3
Syracuse	107.2
Miami FL	105.0
N.C. State	104.5
Georgia Tech	104.4
Boston College	102.6
Pittsburgh	99.9
Atlantic Sun
Team	Rating
Liberty	102.7
Jacksonville St.	102.2
Eastern Kentucky	100.1
Florida Gulf Coast	99.5
Jacksonville	97.5
Bellarmine	97.5
Stetson	94.9
North Alabama	94.1
Kennesaw St.	94.0
Lipscomb	93.5
North Florida	93.1
Central Arkansas	85.5
Big 12
Team	Rating
Baylor	121.1
Kansas	119.5
Texas Tech	114.9
Texas	114.5
Oklahoma	112.3
West Virginia	111.3
Oklahoma St.	110.7
Iowa St.	109.6
TCU	108.5
Kansas St.	107.2
Big East
Team	Rating
Villanova	115.9
Connecticut	114.6
Xavier	114.5
Seton Hall	114.4
Providence	109.7
Creighton	108.9
St. John’s	107.5
DePaul	107.4
Marquette	107.4
Butler	104.4
Georgetown	103.5
Big Sky
Team	Rating
Southern Utah	102.5
Weber St.	101.5
Montana St.	99.4
Montana	98.8
Northern Colorado	98.3
Eastern Washington	97.7
Portland St.	95.1
Sacramento St.	91.0
Idaho St.	90.7
Northern Arizona	90.6
Idaho	88.1
Big South
Team	Rating
Winthrop	99.3
Longwood	99.1
Campbell	98.7
Gardner Webb	97.3
UNC Asheville	96.2
Radford	94.4
High Point	93.7
North Carolina A&T	93.4
Presbyterian	93.3
USC Upstate	88.8
Hampton	88.4
Charleston Southern	85.2
Big Ten
Team	Rating
Purdue	120.3
Illinois	116.9
Ohio St.	115.7
Michigan St.	115.4
Michigan	115.3
Iowa	114.8
Indiana	113.3
Wisconsin	111.3
Northwestern	110.8
Maryland	109.3
Minnesota	107.7
Penn St.	107.0
Rutgers	105.1
Nebraska	101.9
Big West
Team	Rating
UC Irvine	105.4
UC Santa Barbara	102.1
UC Riverside	102.0
Cal St. Fullerton	98.4
UC Davis	98.0
Hawaii	96.8
Cal St. Bakersfield	96.6
UC San Diego	95.3
Long Beach St.	93.4
Cal Poly	92.1
Cal St. Northridge	91.8
Colonial Athletic
Team	Rating
Towson	104.8
Hofstra	104.2
James Madison	101.5
Northeastern	101.5
Delaware	100.3
Drexel	99.6
Charleston	99.3
Elon	93.2
UNC Wilmington	93.0
William & Mary	86.8
Conference USA
Team	Rating
UAB	110.5
Louisiana Tech	105.8
North Texas	105.6
Western Kentucky	104.5
Marshall	101.1
Rice	100.3
UTEP	99.2
Old Dominion	99.1
Charlotte	98.9
Middle Tennessee	98.6
Florida Atlantic	98.2
FIU	97.4
Southern Miss	92.4
UTSA	91.0
Horizon
Team	Rating
Oakland	103.5
Cleveland St.	101.1
Wright St.	99.4
Detroit Mercy	97.7
Northern Kentucky	97.5
Youngstown St.	96.5
Illinois Chicago	95.0
Milwaukee	94.3
Purdue Fort Wayne	94.0
Robert Morris	92.0
Green Bay	90.7
IUPUI	82.6
Ivy League
Team	Rating
Princeton	102.5
Yale	101.3
Brown	100.1
Harvard	99.6
Cornell	98.1
Penn	97.5
Dartmouth	95.8
Columbia	85.9
Metro Atlantic
Team	Rating
Iona	106.6
Monmouth	104.7
Fairfield	99.8
Niagara	98.6
Marist	98.0
Saint Peter’s	97.5
Quinnipiac	95.8
Manhattan	95.1
Canisius	93.3
Siena	92.7
Rider	92.4
Mid-American
Team	Rating
Buffalo	107.1
Toledo	105.7
Ohio	105.4
Akron	102.6
Miami OH	101.3
Kent St.	101.0
Bowling Green	100.6
Ball St.	94.3
Eastern Michigan	93.5
Northern Illinois	89.7
Central Michigan	88.6
Western Michigan	88.3
Mideastern Athletic
Team	Rating
Howard	97.0
Norfolk St.	94.9
Coppin St.	91.2
North Carolina Central	90.2
Morgan St.	90.0
Maryland Eastern Shore	88.9
South Carolina St.	87.2
Delaware St.	78.8
Missouri Valley
Team	Rating
Loyola Chicago	113.1
Missouri St.	107.0
Drake	106.6
Northern Iowa	103.7
Southern Illinois	102.1
Bradley	101.4
Valparaiso	98.9
Indiana St.	98.8
Illinois St.	97.1
Evansville	95.3
Mountain West
Team	Rating
Colorado St.	111.6
San Diego St.	110.0
Utah St.	109.5
Boise St.	109.1
Fresno St.	106.9
Wyoming	106.7
Nevada	106.7
UNLV	102.9
New Mexico	97.5
San Jose St.	93.3
Air Force	92.7
Northeast
Team	Rating
Wagner	104.4
Bryant	96.8
St. Francis PA	95.0
LIU	94.9
Merrimack	94.2
Sacred Heart	93.2
Mount St. Mary’s	92.4
St. Francis NY	90.3
Central Connecticut	86.9
Fairleigh Dickinson	86.7
Ohio Valley
Team	Rating
Belmont	109.0
Murray St.	107.9
Morehead St.	101.5
Tennessee Tech	94.4
Austin Peay	93.3
SIU Edwardsville	92.5
Tennessee St.	91.8
Southeast Missouri St.	90.2
Tennessee Martin	88.6
Eastern Illinois	84.3
Pac-12
Team	Rating
Arizona	120.7
UCLA	117.5
USC	114.9
Washington St.	109.9
Oregon	108.9
Utah	107.5
Colorado	106.4
Stanford	105.7
Arizona St.	105.7
California	104.3
Oregon St.	101.2
Washington	100.3
Patriot League
Team	Rating
Colgate	102.6
Navy	102.4
Boston University	100.6
Loyola MD	93.9
Army	93.4
Lafayette	91.5
Bucknell	90.9
American	89.6
Lehigh	89.4
Holy Cross	86.5
Southeastern
Team	Rating
LSU	118.1
Tennessee	117.9
Auburn	117.4
Kentucky	117.3
Alabama	116.1
Florida	113.6
Arkansas	111.2
Mississippi St.	110.8
Texas A&M	107.8
Vanderbilt	106.8
South Carolina	105.6
Mississippi	104.8
Missouri	100.1
Georgia	99.4
Southern
Team	Rating
Chattanooga	105.7
Wofford	105.2
Furman	104.0
East Tennessee St.	100.8
UNC Greensboro	99.2
Mercer	97.6
VMI	97.2
Samford	95.4
The Citadel	95.2
Western Carolina	92.5
Southland
Team	Rating
Nicholls St.	97.6
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	93.2
New Orleans	92.1
Southeastern Louisiana	91.1
McNeese St.	90.4
Northwestern St.	87.3
Incarnate Word	85.1
Houston Baptist	84.7
Southwestern Athletic
Team	Rating
Texas Southern	99.5
Jackson St.	96.1
Southern	94.8
Prairie View A&M	93.8
Alcorn St.	91.6
Florida A&M	91.5
Grambling St.	88.5
Alabama A&M	87.1
Alabama St.	86.7
Bethune Cookman	86.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff	82.3
Mississippi Valley St.	74.3
Summit
Team	Rating
South Dakota St.	107.0
Oral Roberts	101.6
North Dakota St.	99.4
Western Illinois	98.9
UMKC	97.6
South Dakota	95.5
St. Thomas	92.8
Denver	89.1
Nebraska Omaha	86.9
North Dakota	86.6
Sun Belt
Team	Rating
Texas St.	101.5
Georgia St.	101.2
South Alabama	101.1
Appalachian St.	99.9
Coastal Carolina	99.8
Louisiana	99.0
Georgia Southern	98.1
Louisiana Monroe	97.5
Arkansas St.	97.1
UT Arlington	95.8
Troy	95.5
Little Rock	90.7
West Coast
Team	Rating
Gonzaga	122.6
BYU	112.6
San Francisco	111.2
Saint Mary’s	110.8
Santa Clara	106.3
Loyola Marymount	103.2
San Diego	99.1
Pepperdine	96.4
Pacific	95.7
Portland	94.2
Western Athletic
Team	Rating
New Mexico St.	104.8
Abilene Christian	103.9
Grand Canyon	103.7
Utah Valley	103.1
Stephen F. Austin	100.6
Seattle	99.3
Tarleton St.	99.1
Cal Baptist	97.9
Sam Houston St.	96.9
UT Rio Grande Valley	92.9
Dixie St.	91.9
Lamar	90.7
Chicago St.	82.7

Comparison of Old & New R+T Ratings

We hope you read our piece earlier this week describing our updated R+T Rating for 2020.  If you didn’t, and if you are a new reader to the PiRate Ratings, after thanking you for stopping buy and remembering you are getting exactly what you paid for here, the following is a quick tutorial on what R+T Rating means.

1. The R+T Rating is a metric that applies only to the NCAA Tournament.

2. The R+T Rating attempts to estimate extra scoring opportunities by teams in NCAA Tournament games.

3. Over the last two decades when the needed statistics to calculate R+T Ratings, the National Champions and most of the Final Four teams rated near the top of the field in R+T Rating.  

4. The reason the R+T Rating is so important in the NCAA Tournament only is because the other metrics are better applied in an environment where half of the teams in Division 1 are below average offensively, while a separate half of the teams in Division 1 are below average defensively.  In the NCAA Tournament, almost all teams are above average offensively and defensively, so these extra scoring opportunities frequently are the difference.   It only takes one nice scoring spurt to win a tightly contested game in the Big Dance.

We used the same R+T Rating for almost two decades, only slightly tweaking the weighting for these stats.  The old R+T Rating, which we will continue to publish this year, is:

(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T

R = Rebounding Margin
S = Average Steals Per Game
T = Turnover Margin

This metric shows that rebounding margin is more important than turnover margin, but steals are more important than other types of turnovers.  The reason is that steals lead to the most potential points per possession.  When a team steals the ball, they are usually facing their own basket (whereas on a rebound, their backs are to their own basket).  The team committing the turnover by steal must do a 180° turn to defend, and the stealing team takes off on a fast break.

This R+T Rating helped us pick some big upsets for many years.  Teams with high R+T Ratings and adequate strengths of schedule advanced in the tournaments at the expense of teams with low R+T Ratings.  In multiple years, teams with negative R+T Ratings lost quickly in the Big Dance, even teams that were #2, 3, and 4 seeds.  We correctly picked two different Georgetown teams to be upset as heavy favorites, because those Hoya teams had negative or very low positive R+T Ratings.  For three years, we picked Vanderbilt to lose in the first game against underdogs because Vanderbilt also had negative or very low R+T Ratings.  At the other end of the spectrum, the team with the highest R+T Rating and a significantly strong schedule has cut down the nets multiple times.

If the R+T Rating has been an accurate predictor of potential NCAA Tournament success, why did we need to create a new version?  We did so, because the old version simply counted actual margins without concerning itself with possessions.  Rate stats are more accurate than counting stats.  As we have used as an example many times, a team that outrebounds its opponents 35-30 has done a better job than a team that outrebounded its opponents 43-37.  Strictly counting 43-37 is +6 and 35-30 is only +5, but 35-30 is 53.85% while 43-37 is 53.75%, so 35-30 is a tad better.  We want our stats to be as accurate as possible, so we switched to rate stats over counting stats.

But, we have an issue.  The variables now must change as well, because percentages are totally different from standard numbers.  We have tried to back-test the new variables and include a constant to try to make the outcome look the same but more accurate.

Here is the explanation for the new R+T Rating.

1. Use 4-Factors Rate Stats
A. Offensive Rebound %
B. Opponents’ Offensive Rebound %
C. Steal %
D. Opponents’ Steal %
E. Turnover %
F. Opponents’ Turnover %

2. Take the difference in each stat from the national average for each stat. There will be discrepancies in the offensive and defensive averages due to D1 vs. D2 games, so we set the national average from the mean of the offensive and defensive norms.
For example: O Reb% = 28.43 & D Reb% = 27.79, then the mean Reb% for Division 1 in 2020 is 28.1.

3. For Rebounding Rate Margin & Turnover Rate Margin take the sum of offensive and defensive rates and divide by 2.
Example: A team’s OReb Margin is +6.4% and DReb Margin is -1.2%. Reb Rate Margin would be +2.6%

4. We Keep Steal Rate Margins Separate as in original R+T.

5. The New Formula Now Becomes:

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

Here’s how we calculate a sample new R+T Rate.

The Big State University Pumas have these stats

Offensive Rebounding % = 34.8.  With a national Rebound % mean of 28.1, Big State’s offensive rebound rate margin is +6.7% (34.8-28.1)

Opponents’ Offensive Rebounding % = 28.6.  With a national Rebound % mean of 28.1, The defensive margin or Big State’s opponents offensive rebound margin is -0.5 (28.1-28.6)

Now we add the two margins and divide by 2  (+6.7 – 0.5) / 2 = 3.1

3.1 would be the new R number in the equation.

Big State has a steal rate of 10.6% and a defensive steal rate of 9.6%.  The national average steal rate is 9.2%.  

So, Big State’s S Rating would be +1.4 (10.6-9.2).  Their opponents’ S would be +.4% (in this case the higher the number, the worse off it is for the team).

Big State has a turnover rate of 16.8% and a defensive turnover rate of 18.2%.  The national average for turnovers is 16.9%, so Big State’s turnover rate margin would be 0.1%, and their defensive turnover rate margin would be 1.3%.

So Big State’s T Rating would be 0.7,  (.1+1.3)/2

Now we have all the numbers we need to plug into the calculation.

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

For Big State, the equation becomes:

((3.1 * 8) + (1.4 * 2 + ((5 – .4) *2) + (0.7 * 4)))/2.75 = 14.4

Big State’s R+T Rating would be 14.4, which is about average for an NCAA Tournament Team.  We must at this point look at their schedule strength to see if it merits worthiness against teams most likely to advance into additional NCAA Tournament rounds.

So, by now you are maybe wanting to see some real R+T Ratings?  We are going to show you both the old and new R+T Ratings for the current top 20 teams in the nation.

Here is the old R+T list with the schedule strength.  For schedule strength, 50.0 is average.  55.0 and higher means the team has played a tough schedule.  Below 45.0 means the team has played a weak schedule.  Usually national champions have a strength of schedule between 56 and 62, and most Final Four Teams have strengths of schedule between 52 and 62.

Old R+T

Team	R+T No.	SOS
Gonzaga	24.6	53.9
Houston	23.0	55.8
West Virginia	20.6	60.4
Kansas	17.0	62.3
Baylor	17.0	59.4
Duke	16.5	58.6
San Diego St.	15.9	53.6
Louisville	15.3	57.6
Colorado	14.4	57.6
Maryland	13.1	59.9
Florida St.	12.8	57.9
Butler	11.9	59.7
Kentucky	11.9	56.7
Penn St.	10.3	59.8
Dayton	9.4	54.4
Iowa	9.4	60.8
Marquette	8.1	59.8
Villanova	7.5	60.0
Seton Hall	4.9	60.4
Creighton	2.2	60.3

 

Looking at the old R+T, the Big East appears to be a bit overrated this year.  The four Top 20 teams with the lowest R+T Ratings are all Big East teams.

Until last night, Duke had a much more impressive R+T than they do today, but losing by 22 to North Carolina State, and getting outrebounded and committing more turnovers and having the ball stolen more against the Wolf Pack led to the Blue Devils dropping down to sixth.

Gonzaga’s R+T is about where it was when the Bulldogs advanced to the National Championship Game against North Carolina a few years back.  At the moment, their schedule strength is a tad too low, but GU has games remaining against Saint Mary’s and BYU and likely another game against one of the two in the WCC Championship Game.  The Zags’ SOS could move up a little.

 

 

New R+T Rating

 

Team	R+T Rate	SOS
West Virginia	26.5	60.4
Gonzaga	21.5	53.9
Houston	20.9	55.8
Baylor	18.7	59.4
Duke	18.3	58.6
Colorado	15.3	57.6
Kansas	14.4	62.3
Florida St.	12.7	57.9
San Diego St.	12.7	53.6
Louisville	11.9	57.6
Maryland	10.7	59.9
Iowa	9.6	60.8
Penn St.	8.6	59.8
Butler	7.6	59.7
Villanova	5.7	60.0
Marquette	4.1	59.8
Kentucky	3.8	56.7
Seton Hall	3.1	60.4
Dayton	1.6	54.4
Creighton	-5.5	60.3

 

The new R+T gives a little more credit to three of the Big East teams.  Obviously, lower possessions per game in the Big East are partly to blame for lower counting stats, but on the whole, this does not look like a great potential year for the Big East.

Look at the top four teams here.  All four are teams that are west of the Mississippi River.  There hasn’t been an NCAA Champion from west of the Mississippi River since Kansas in 2008.  There hasn’t been an NCAA Champion from west of the Rockies since Arizona in 1997.  Did you know that the last 11 NCAA Champions came from the Eastern Time Zone?  And, did you know that the last NCAA Champion from the Pacific Time Zone was UCLA in 1995?

Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs-Part 3: Efficiency

Before getting into the meat of this final installment, I must apologize in advance for the brevity in this last segment.  Time constraints have made it impossible to thoroughly peruse individual offensive and defensive efficiency.

That may be a good thing for you the reader, because you can read the dictionary about as quickly as you can go through all the steps involved in calculating individual efficiency.  Suffice it to say that there are several parts to this calculation.  One must have a lengthy formula on a spreadsheet where a player’s and his team’s statistics can be inputted, and the spreadsheet spits out the numbers.

If you really want to know the entire process, then you absolutely must purchase the book by the number one authoritative source on the matter.

The book is: Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis by Dean Oliver.  You might be able to find it in a library, as it is included in the catalog of more than 750 libraries throughout the nation, more than likely at a local college or university library near you.

Just to show you how involved the formulas are, it takes 18 separate calculations from start to finish for each player’s offensive number and almost as many for his defensive number.

The NCAA Selection Committee will use Team Offensive Efficiency and Team Defensive Efficiency in their process of picking the at-large teams and seeding all 68 teams.  This is rather simple and can be explained briefly.

Offensive Efficiency = Points scored per 100 possessions

Defensive Efficiency = Points allowed per 100 possessions.

In the 21st Century, possessions are kept as a statistic, but if you cannot find this number, you can estimate it very accurately by this formula.

Team Possessions = FG Attempts + (.475* FT Attempts) – Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers

In the NBA, substitute .44 for .475 in FT Attempts.

Obviously, round the product from the Free Throw Attempts formula to the nearest whole number.

Let’s look at some examples for a game, a season to date, and some past seasons.

Example #1. Nevada vs. Air Force, January 19, 2019

Nevada defeated Air Force 67-52 last Saturday in Reno.  The Wolfpack totally shut down the Falcons’ offense, while Air Force played capable defense on the perimeter, forcing Nevada players to hurry their three-point shots.

For the game, Nevada had 57 total field goal attempts, 23 free throw attempts, 9 offensive rebounds, and 14 turnovers.

To calculate possessions, plug the numbers into the equation:

57 + (.475 * 23) -9 + 14 = 73

For Air Force, their stat line included 51 total field goal attempts, just 9 free throw attempts, 3 offensive rebounds, and 21 turnovers.

51 + (.475 * 9) -3 + 21 = 73

Possessions must be equal or off by one or two between the teams, because after one team completes a possession, the other team gets the ball.  Two is the most advantageous one team can have over the other in possessions.  This comes about when the team that gets the opening tap also gets the last possession of the first half, as well as the first and last possession of the game.  It happens very rarely, because in order to have the first and last possession of both halves, there must be an odd number of jump ball calls in the first half so that the team that got the opening tap also gets the first possession of the second half..

Let’s get back to the calculation.

Nevada scored 67 points on 73 possessions

67/73 = 0.918 or 91.8 points per 100 possessions

Air Force scored 52 points on 73 possessions

52/73 = .712 or 71.2 points per 100 possessions

 

Example #2: Gonzaga vs. San Francisco, January 12, 2019

In this key West Coast Conference game with first place in the league on the line, Gonzaga went to the Bay and beat the Dons 96-83.

Gonzaga: 69 FGA, 21 FTA, 12 Off Reb, 4 TOV

69 + (.475 * 21) – 12 + 4 = 71 possessions

USF: 69 FGA, 25 FTA, 14 Off Reb, 5 TOV

69 + (.475 * 25) – 14 + 5 = 72 possessions

Gonzaga 96 points on 71 possessions = 1.352 points per possession or 135.2 points per 100 possessions.

San Francisco 83 points on 72 possessions = 1.153 points per possession or 115.3 points per 100 possessions.

 

Example 3: Michigan Wolverines to date

Michigan used to win games by three-point barrages and fast break points and limited defense.  Then, after assistant coach Luke Yaklich came to Ann Arbor to install his multiple defenses, the Maize and Blue became just as tough on the defensive side if not better defensively.

So far this year, the Wolverines have these offensive and defensive stats through 18 games.

Offense: 1,021 FGA, 318 FTA, 165 Off. Rebounds, 175 Turnovers in 18 games

1021 + (.475 * 318) – 165 + 175 = 1,182 total possessions and 65.7 possessions per game.

Michigan has scored 1,306 points in 18 games.

1,306 / 1,182 * 100 = 110.5 points per 100 possessions.

Michigan’s Defense has given up: 1,003 FGA, 210 FTA, 142 off. Rebounds, and  237 turnovers.

1,003 + (.475 * 210) – 142 + 237 = 1,198 total possessions and 66.6 possessions per game.

Michigan has surrendered 1,027 points in 18 games.

1,027 / 1,198 * 100 = 85.7 points per 100 possessions.

A raw point spread between two teams can be estimated by combining their offensive and defensive points 100 possessions and factoring in strengths of schedule and home court advantage.

Let’s look at State vs. Tech in an imaginary matchup.

State has an offensive efficiency of 110 points per 100 possessions and a defensive efficiency of 90 points per 100 possessions against a schedule 3 points weaker than average.  They average 76 possessions per game, and their home court advantage is worth 3 points.

Tech has an offensive efficiency of 102 points per 100 possessions and a defensive efficiency of 99 points per 100 possessions against a schedule 8 points better than average.  They average 66 possessions per game.

For the year in question, the national average for possessions is 70 per game, so State plays at a tempo of about 8.6% above average, while Tech plays at a tempo of about 5.7% below average.  Because it is easier for one team to slow pace down more than it is for another team to speed pace up (unless they press full court for most of the game), it can be estimated that this game will have about 69 possessions.

If State outscores its opponents by 20 points per 100 possessions, in 69 possessions, this equates to 13.8 points.

If Tech outscores its opponents by 3 points per 100 possessions, in 69 possessions, this equates to 2.07 points.

To this point, State looks like an 11.73 point favorite over Tech, but this is not the case.  Schedule strength and home court advantage must be included.

If Tech’s schedule on average has been about 11 points tougher per game than State, you then add those 11 points in Tech’s favor.  Now, the State’s advantage has been reduced to 0.73 points.  Tech’s home court advantage is 3 points, so the expected outcome would be State by 3.73, or 4 points.

This is a crude method once used by the PiRate Ratings, as the Blue Rating.  We no longer use this method, as there are more accurate ways to determine pointspreads, namely using algorithms of the Four Factors with schedule strengths, home court advantage, and road team disadvantage.

Example 4: Villanova 2018 season

The Wildcats won their second national championship in three years last season, finishing with a 36-4 record.  They scored 3,463 points and allowed 2,807 points in 40 games.

Here are their pertinent stats to calculate efficiency.

Field Goal Attempts: 2,440

Opponents: 2,401

Free Throw Attempts: 718

Opponents: 641

Offensive Rebounds: 380

Opponents: 378

Turnovers: 426

Opponents: 512

Possessions: 2,440 + (.475 * 718) – 380 + 426 = 2,827 (70.7 possessions per game)

Opponents: 2,401 + (.475 * 641) – 378 + 512 = 2,839 (71.0 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency

3,463/2,827 * 100 = 122.5 points per 100 possessions

Defensive Efficiency

2,807/2839 * 100 = 98.9 points per 100 possessions

 

How does this compare to past national champions?  Because offensive rebounding stats were not officially kept until this century, it can only be estimated for the 20th Century.  No doubt the UCLA teams of 1967 thru 1969 and 1972 and 1973 would be off the charts great, as the Bruins dominated in every aspect of the game during their dynasty years.

There are some very fine teams that won championships in recent years, so let’s look at the national champions during this time.  The number shown is the total scoring margin per 100 possessions.  Of course, schedule strength is not equal for these teams, but on the whole, there is not a lot of difference, as these champions all played schedules between 5 and 10 points above the national average.

When adjusted to schedule strength, here are the 10 best teams in the 21st Century using the PiRate Ratings formula.

2008: Kansas 124.0

2001: Duke 123.6

2018: Villanova 122.9

2010: Duke 122.1

2013: Louisville 121.8

2005: North Carolina 121.7

2012: Kentucky 121.5

2015: Duke 121.3 

2016: Villanova 120.9

2009: North Carolina 120.3

2007: Florida 120.1

2002: Maryland 119.6

2004: Connecticut 117.9

2006: Florida 117.1

2017: North Carolina 117.0

2011: Connecticut 115.8

2003: Syracuse 115.1

2014: Connecticut 111.6

Note that the national champions through these seasons were not necessarily the highest rated team by efficiency.  For instance, Connecticut was not considered a factor at the end of the 2011 regular season.  They finished tied for 9th in the Big East, and thus they had to play in the opening round of the conference tournament.  To win the conference tournament, they would have to do something never done before or since–win five games in five days.  The Huskies became the big story of Championship Week win Coach Jim Calhoun rode his star guard Kemba Walker to the title, winning five games in five days at Madison Square Garden, as Walker performed for his friends and family from the Bronx, averaging 26 points per game by taking it to the hoop and drawing enough fouls to shoot 54 free throws in just five games.

The Huskies were on a roll, and they won six more games in the Big Dance.  They finished 11-0 and still only rose to 15.8 points better than average against an average schedule.  Before this 11-game streak, UConn was just 9-9 in the conference.  However, the Huskies had played a very difficult schedule that included 18 ranked opponents, in which they went 12-6 in those games.  All nine of their losses came to NCAA Tournament teams, so strength of schedule was terribly important in factoring their adjusted efficiency.

 

2019 Top Efficiency

By now, you must want to know which teams are at the top in total efficiency?  It should come as no surprise that the NET Ratings and the Efficiency Ratings are about the same.

Virginia, Duke, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and Tennessee are at the tops in adjusted efficiency, or to put it bluntly, what the NCAA Selection Committee will look at.  Likewise, these are also the top five teams in NET Ratings, so if the Selection Committed picked the bracket today, four of these five would be your number one seeds, and the fifth would be the top number two seed.

This doesn’t mean that one of these five teams will win the national championship, but the odds are that from this group of five, there is about a 50-50 chance that one will win the title.  Of course, this is only a mid-season ranking.  The ranking on March 17.

 

Individual Efficiency

I won’t begin to explain individual offensive and defensive efficiency, as my only recommendation it to read Basketball on Paper, as Oliver is the Bill James (or Tom Tango) of basketball analysis.

Let me just list which players from the power conferences rate at the top.

Can you guess who is the current number one player in efficiency?  I bet if you had one free guess to win a car on a game show, you’d win the car.

The best player in college ball today is the best player in total efficiency.  It comes as no surprise that Duke’s Zion Williamson is number one, and he is far ahead of the field.  Gonzaga’s Brandon Clarke is a distant number two, and Wisconin’s Ethan Happ is almost as far being Clarke in third place as Clarke is behind Williamson.

Before you think that this rating is due to just these three players being great, let me add that their coaches and teammates are also important in this rating.  Coach Mike Krzyzewski has produced a lot of highly efficient players.  Sure, most of them were McDonald’s All-Americans, but there are some of these 5-star players in recent history that are not all that efficient.

Vanderbilt’s Simi Shittu was the Number 7 overall player in this current freshman class, a 5-star McDonald’s All-American.  The Commodores are one of the least efficient teams from a Power Conference, and Shittu’s numbers have headed south once SEC play began, and the opposition quickly learned his liabilities.  Shittu actually owns a negative offensive efficiency rating through 17 games, and an even worse rating in five conference games, as he has negative efficiency in both offense and defense.  It doesn’t help his efficiency when he has a 7.8% three-point accuracy, low free throw percentage, and a high turnover percentage.  I have heard comparisons made to former St. John’s 5-star player Wayne McKoy from the 1970’s, when McKoy went from top player in the freshman class to never playing in the NBA.