Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.
Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.
This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.
American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Cincinnati | 111.2 | 110.3 | 112.8 | 111.4 |
| Houston | 105.0 | 104.7 | 106.5 | 105.4 |
| UCF | 103.8 | 104.5 | 104.6 | 104.3 |
| SMU | 102.2 | 101.3 | 102.3 | 101.9 |
| East Carolina | 99.5 | 99.1 | 100.4 | 99.7 |
| Tulane | 98.6 | 97.7 | 97.9 | 98.1 |
| Memphis | 97.0 | 97.5 | 96.9 | 97.1 |
| Tulsa | 95.8 | 94.8 | 95.7 | 95.4 |
| USF | 96.2 | 94.7 | 95.1 | 95.3 |
| Navy | 92.9 | 92.1 | 91.3 | 92.1 |
| Temple | 80.9 | 83.4 | 78.6 | 81.0 |
| AAC | 98.5 | 98.2 | 98.4 | 98.3 |
American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll
| Votes | |||
| # | Team | 1st Place | Overall |
| 1 | Houston | 7 | 243 |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 10 | 242 |
| 3 | Central Florida | 7 | 225 |
| 4 | SMU | 0 | 187 |
| 5 | Memphis | 0 | 162 |
| 6 | East Carolina | 0 | 157 |
| 7 | Tulane | 0 | 115 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 0 | 93 |
| 9 | South Florida | 0 | 71 |
| 10 | Navy | 0 | 61 |
| 11 | Temple | 0 | 28 |
The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.
| AAC | Conf | Overall |
| Cincinnati | 8-0 | 12-1 |
| Houston | 8-0 | 11-2 |
| Central Florida | 7-1 | 10-2 |
| SMU | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| East Carolina | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| Memphis | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| Tulsa | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| Tulane | 2-6 | 5-7 |
| South Florida | 2-6 | 3-9 |
| Navy | 2-6 | 3-9 |
| Temple | 0-8 | 2-10 |
Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 