The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 29, 2015

2015 AFC West Preview

For Peyton Manning, this could be his final hurrah.  Might he go out the same way his boss went out in 1999?  John Elway retired following a Super Bowl win.  The Broncos window for winning is closing fast, and this will probably be Manning’s last chance to earn a second ring.  Denver made a lot of changes after their early playoff loss in 2014.  John Fox is out as coach, and Gary Kubiak is in.  Wade Phillips, the nomad defensive guru, is the new coordinator of a defense that was tough against the run but so-so against the pass.  Seven starters are gone, most notably tight end Julius Thomas.  Denver is still the favorite in the West, but their edge is razor slim over the Chiefs and Chargers.

Kansas City almost made the playoffs last year without a wide receiver catching a touchdown pass, and with their top defensive player leaving the team after a cancer diagnosis.  The Chiefs have the potential to be better this year, perhaps even better than they were in 2013, and there will be touchdown receptions from wide receivers this year.  Jeremy Maclin, the team’s key signee, should get several.  The defense will continue to be strong, and the Chiefs are within striking distance of overtaking their rivals to the west.

Oakland went through growing pains with a rookie quarterback last year, and the Raiders suffered through a 13th consecutive season without a winning record.  This once dominant team might be in its last year in Oakland, and could once again become the Los Angeles Raiders, making the O.co Coliseum “The Ark of the Lost Raiders.”  New head coach Jack Del Rio should lead to an improved defense, and if Carr can progress as a second year player, the Raiders could be moving up.  Of course, at 3-13, there isn’t much room to move down.

San Diego, like Oakland, is in a holding pattern.  The once Los Angeles Chargers may be the future Los Angeles Chargers, and teams in this situation seldom play consistent ball all season long.  Phillip Rivers returns after speculation that he might be dealt to Tennessee (before the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota).  Rivers has a little more to play with this year, as the Chargers acquired Jacoby Jones and Stevie Johnson.  It could be an interesting season in San Diego, but chances are better than 50-50 that the bolts will fall short of the playoffs.

DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Demaryius Thomas
WR Emmanuel Sanders
WR Cody Latimer
TE Owen Daniels
LT Ty Sambrailo
LG Evan Mathis
C Matt Paradis
RG Louis Vasquez
RT Ryan Harris
QB Peyton Manning
HB C. J. Anderson
FB James Casey
   
Defense
DE Derek Wolfe/Vance Walker
DT Sylvester Williams
DE Malik Jackson
LB Von Miller
LB Brandon Marshall
LB Danny Trevathan
LB DeMarcus Ware
CB Aqib Talib
S T. J. Ward
S Darian Stewart
CB Chris Harris, Jr.
N5 Bradley Roby
   
Special
Kicker Brandon McManus
Punter Britton Colquitt
KR Omar Bolden
PR Omar Bolden
Denver Broncos
Head Coach Gary Kubiak
Off. Coordinator Rick Dennison
Def. Coordinator Wade Phillips
2014 W-L-T 12-4-0
Pts 30.1
Opp 22.1
   
Ratings  
PiRate 105.6
Mean 104.8
Bias 105.0
Average 105.1
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing A
Vs. Run B
Vs. Pass A-
Special Teams C-
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 10-6-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 3
Overall Rank 6
Postseason Yes

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chiefs Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Jeremy Maclin
WR Albert Wilson
TE Travis Kelce
TE James O’Shaughnessy
LT Eric Fisher
LG Ben Grubbs
C Mitch Morse
RG Jeff Allen
RT Donald Stephenson
QB Alex Smith
HB Jamaal Charles
FB Anthony Sherman
   
Defense
DE Mike Devito
NT Jaye Howard/Dontari Poe
DE Allen Bailey
LB Justin Houston
LB Josh Mauga
LB Derrick Johnson
LB Tamba Hali
CB Phillip Gaines
S Ron Parker
S Eric Berry
CB Seam Smith/Jamell Fleming
N5 Husain Abdullah
   
Special
Kicker Cairo Santos
Punter Dustin Colquitt
KR Knile Davis
PR De’Anthony Thomas
Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach Andy Reid
Off. Coordinator Doug Pederson
Def. Coordinator Bob Sutton
2014 W-L-T 9-7-0
Pts 22.1
Opp 17.6
   
Ratings  
PiRate 100.2
Mean 102.2
Bias 100.2
Average 100.9
   
Grades  
Running B+
Passing C
Vs. Run B-
Vs. Pass B-
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles A-
   
Predicted W-L 8-8-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 8
Overall Rank 14
Postseason No

 

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Raiders Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Michael Crabtree
WR Amari Cooper
TE Mychal Rivera
TE Lee Smith
LT Donald Penn
LG Gabe Jackson
C Rodney Hudson
RG J’Marcus Webb
RT Menelik Watson
QB Derek Carr
HB Latavius Murray
FB Marcel Reece
   
Defense
DE Khalil Mack
DT Dan Williams
DT Justin Ellis
DE Justin Tuck
LB Ray Ray Armstrong
LB Curtis Lofton
LB Malcolm Smith
CB D. J. Hayden
S Charles Woodson
S Nate Allen
CB T. J. Carrie
N5  
   
Special
Kicker Sebastian Janikowski
Punter Marquette King
KR Trindon Holliday
PR Trindon Holliday
Oakland Raiders
Head Coach Jack Del Rio
Off. Coordinator Bill Musgrave
Def. Coordinator Ken Norton, Jr.
2014 W-L-T 3-13-0
Pts 15.8
Opp 28.3
   
Ratings  
PiRate 90.1
Mean 95.7
Bias 87.9
Average 91.2
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing B-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass D
Special Teams C-
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 4-12-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 15
Overall Rank 31
Postseason No

 

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Chargers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Keenan Allen
WR Malcolm Floyd
WR Stevie Johnson
TE Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green
LT King Dunlap
LG Orlando Franklin
C Chris Watt
RG D. J. Fluker
RT Joe Barksdale
QB Phillip Rivers
HB Melvin Gordon
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Kendall Reyes
NT Sean Lissemore
DT Corey Liuget
LB Jerry Attaochu
LB Manti Te’O
LB Donald Butler
LB Melvin Ingram
CB Brandon Flowers
S Jahleel Addae
S Eric Weddle
CB Jason Verrett
N5 Jimmy Wilson
   
Special
Kicker Nick Novak
Punter Mike Scifres
KR Jacoby Jones
PR Jacoby Jones
San Diego Chargers
Head Coach Mike McCoy
Off. Coordinator Frank Reich
Def. Coordinator John Pagano
2014 W-L-T 9-7-0
Pts 21.8
Opp 21.8
   
Ratings  
PiRate 100.8
Mean 101.7
Bias 100.1
Average 100.9
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing A-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C+
Special Teams B+
Coaching + Intangibles C
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 7
Overall Rank 13
Postseason No

 

October 29, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–October 31-November 4, 2013

An Interesting Quarterback Comparison

Yell out when you realize which two quarterbacks this vignette refers to.

 

You have these two quarterbacks that were on the same team, said team being the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC and advance to the Super Bowl.  The first quarterback, the proven starter has the experience and has won for the team before.  He is your classic dropback passer and perfect game manager with little frills to offer.

 

The second quarterback is more of a dual-threat runner.  He can take off and run for 15 yards on 3rd and 14, but some football purists believe his style will not get a team to the Super Bowl.

 

During the middle of a season, following the coach for more than one reason names the backup as the starter for the rest of the year, and the flashy, dual-threat QB directs said team to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl.

 

The former starter is no longer needed, and he eventually emerges to take over an AFC West team, where his conservative, game-management skills has said AFC team number one in the AFC at the halfway point of the season.

 

If you guessed Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith, you are….

 

WRONG!

 

No, this story has been written at least once before.  The two quarterbacks referred to in this vignette are Roger Staubach and Craig Morton.  The two competed to win the permanent starting quarterback spot with the early 1970’s Dallas Cowboys.  Morton inherited the starting spot from the retiring Don Meredith in 1969.  He started through most of the 1970 season, and then in 1971, Coach Tom Landry actually platooned the two, sometimes shuttling them between plays.

 

Staubach led the Cowboys to their first Super Bowl championship, but Morton was back at starter the following year.  It was not until 1973 that Landry decided the scrambling QB from Navy was the clear-cut better option.  Morton moved on, first to the New York Giants, and then to the Denver Broncos, where he guided the 1977 version of Orange Crush to the AFC Championship.  Denver did not win the Super Bowl; they lost to…. Dallas.

 

Might history repeat itself?  Kansas City and San Francisco would make an interesting Super Bowl, and the possibility is there.

 

PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

103.0

105.2

103.8

Washington Redskins

96.8

96.7

96.5

New York Giants

94.7

94.3

93.7

Philadelphia Eagles

94.5

95.4

94.2

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

107.4

106.9

107.5

Chicago Bears

101.6

100.9

100.7

Detroit Lions

101.5

103.0

101.6

Minnesota Vikings

93.6

92.1

92.4

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

106.7

108.5

107.3

Carolina Panthers

103.7

103.9

103.9

Atlanta Falcons

98.3

97.3

97.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

92.5

91.3

91.8

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

109.6

110.4

110.3

Seattle Seahawks

107.7

107.8

107.5

Arizona Cardinals

97.6

99.1

97.8

St. Louis Rams

97.1

97.7

97.1

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

105.4

103.2

105.4

Miami Dolphins

98.7

98.2

98.7

Buffalo Bills

96.6

96.1

97.1

New York Jets

93.7

91.6

93.9

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.1

106.1

106.8

Baltimore Ravens

102.3

101.4

101.8

Cleveland Browns

97.5

98.1

97.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

97.4

96.2

96.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

105.3

105.7

105.9

Tennessee Titans

99.7

100.0

100.3

Houston Texans

98.1

97.7

98.6

Jacksonville Jaguars

85.1

84.1

84.4

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.4

110.9

110.7

Kansas City Chiefs

103.0

104.8

103.3

San Diego Chargers

100.5

101.7

101.3

Oakland Raiders

93.9

93.7

93.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami Cincinnati

-4.4

-4.9

-5.1

Buffalo Kansas City

-3.4

-5.7

-3.2

Carolina Atlanta

7.9

9.1

8.9

Cleveland Baltimore

-1.8

-0.3

-1.3

Dallas Minnesota

12.4

16.1

14.4

Houston Indianapolis

-4.2

-5.0

-4.3

N Y Jets New Orleans

-10.0

-13.9

-10.4

New England Pittsburgh

11.0

10.0

11.6

Oakland Philadelphia

2.9

1.8

3.2

Seattle Tampa Bay

19.2

20.5

19.7

St. Louis Tennessee

0.4

0.7

-0.2

Washington San Diego

-0.2

-1.5

-1.3

Green Bay Chicago

8.3

8.5

9.3

   

 

 

 

Byes: Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Francisco

 

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Detroit

 

Wildcard Round

 

Kansas City over Indianapolis

New England over San Diego

San Francisco over Dallas

Green Bay over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver

Cincinnati over New England

San Francisco over Seattle

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Championship Round

Cincinnati over Kansas City

Green Bay over San Francisco

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Cincinnati

August 25, 2013

2013 AFC West Preview

2013 A F C West Preview

The PiRate Ratings kickoff our coverage of the National Football League with our AFC West Division preview.

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

Here are the official colors for the AFC West

West

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Denver Broncos

Navy

0

33

71

 

Orange

255

99

25

Kansas City Chiefs

Red

198

12

48

 

Gold

255

182

18

Oakland Raiders

Silver

133

136

139

 

Black

17

28

36

San Diego Chargers

Navy

0

34

68

 

Gold

255

182

18

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

AFC West PiRate Mean Biased

WLT

Pts

Opp

Denver Broncos

111.0

110.6

110.3

13-3-0

481

289

San Diego Chargers

98.4

99.1

99.5

7-9-0

350

350

Oakland Raiders

90.9

92.2

93.0

4-12-0

290

443

Kansas City Chiefs

87.6

87.8

87.9

2-14-0

211

425

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

106.9

107.6

107.2

San Diego Chargers

97.8

98.8

98.3

Kansas City Chiefs

95.6

99.2

96.0

Oakland Raiders

90.6

89.3

90.2

Division Means

97.7

98.7

97.9

PiRate Previews

 

Team

Denver Broncos

             
Head Coach

John Fox

O-Coord.

Adam Gase

D-Coord.

Jack Del Rio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Peyton Manning

Running Back

Ronnie Hillman

Wide Receiver

Wes Welker

Wide Receiver

Eric Decker

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas

Tight End

Joel Dreessen

Left Tackle

Ryan Clady

Left Guard

Zane Beadles

Center

Manny Ramirez

Right Guard

Louis Vasquez

Right Tackle

Orlando Franklin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Derek Wolfe

Tackle

Kevin Vickerson

Nose Tackle

Terrance Knighton

Right End

Robert Ayers

Sam LB

Shaun Phillips (Von Miller after game 6)

Mike LB

Nate Irving

Will LB

Wesley Woodyard

Left CB

Champ Bailey

Right CB

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Strong Safety

Mike Adams

Free Safety

Rahim Moore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Matt Prater

Punter

Britton Colquitt

K-Return

Trindon Holliday

P-Return

Trindon Holliday

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

12-4

Division

1st

 

 

Team

Kansas City Chiefs

             
Head Coach

Andy Reid

O-Coord.

Doug Pederson

D-Coord.

Bob Sutton

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Alex Smith

Running Back

Jamaal Charles

Fullback

Anthony Sherman

Wide Receiver

Donnie Avery

Wide Receiver

Dwayne Bowe

Tight End

Anthony Fasano

Left Tackle

Branden Albert

Left Guard

Jeff Allen

Center

Rodney Hudson

Right Guard

Jon Asamoah

Right Tackle

Eric Fisher

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Tyson Jackson

Nose Tackle

Dontari Poe

Right End

Mike DeVito

Left OLB

Justin Houston

Left ILB

Akeem Jordan

Right ILB

Derrick Johnson

Right OLB

Tamba Hali

Left CB

Brandon Flowers

Right CB

Sean Smith

Strong Safety

Eric Berry

Free Safety

Kendrick Lewis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Ryan Succop

Punter

Dustin Colquitt

K-Return

Dexter McCluster

P-Return

Dexter McCluster

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

7-9

Division

2nd

 

 

Team

Oakland Raiders

             
Head Coach

Dennis Allen

O-Coord.

Greg Olson

D-Coord.

Jason Tarver

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Terrell Pryor/Matt Flynn

Running Back

Darren McFadden

Fullback

Marcel Reece

Wide Receiver

Denarius Moore

Wide Receiver

Rod Streater

Tight End

Richard Gordon

Left Tackle

Jared Veldheer

Left Guard

Lucas Nix

Center

Stefan Wisniewski

Right Guard

Mike Brisiel

Right Tackle

Khalif Barnes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Jason Hunter

Nose Tackle

Pat Sims

Right Tackle

Vance Walker

Right End

Lamarr Houston

Sam LB

Sio Moore

Mike LB

Nick Roach

Will LB

Kevin Burnett

Left CB

Mike Jenkins

Right CB

Tracy Porter

Strong Safety

Tyvon Branch

Free Safety

Charles Woodson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Chris Kluwe

Punter

Sebastian Janikowski

K-Return

Jacoby Ford

P-Return

Phillip Adams

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

5-11

Division

4th

 

 

Team

San Diego Chargers

             
Head Coach

Mike McCoy

O-Coord.

Ken Whisenhunt

D-Coord.

John Pagano

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Phillip Rivers

Running Back

Ryan Matthews

Fullback

LeRon McClain

Wide Receiver

Malcom Floyd

Wide Receiver

Vincent Brown

Tight End

Antonio Gates

Left Tackle

King Dunlap

Left Guard

Chad Rinehart

Center

Nick Hardwick

Right Guard

Jeromey Clary

Right Tackle

D. J. Fluker

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Kendall Reyes

Nose Tackle

Cam Thomas

Right End

Cory Liuget

Left OLB

Jarret Johnson

Left ILB

Manti Te’o

Right ILB

Donald Butler

Right OLB

Dwight Freeney

Left CB

Derek Cox

Right CB

Shareece Wright

Strong Safety

Marcus Gilchrist

Free Safety

Eric Weddie

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Nick Novack

Punter

Mike Scifres

K-Return

Richard Goodman

P-Return

Eddie Royal

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

6-10

Division

3rd

 

December 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.

So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today.

2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread.

We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact.

For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection.

We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition.

We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy.

Here it is:

We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose.

There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.  

Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18.

Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog.

Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10.

The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay.

If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15.

Here is our Christmas gift to you.

1. 13-point teaser parlay

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

 

Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one.

Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright.

Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times.

We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia 10 4 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6
NY Giants 9 5 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5
Dallas 5 9 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8
Washington 5 9 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4
Bitmap

 
                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 6 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2
Chicago 10 4 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9
Detroit 4 10 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8
Minnesota 5 9 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 12 2 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2
New Orleans 10 4 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2
Tampa Bay 8 6 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3
Carolina 2 12 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 9 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0
St. Louis 6 8 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4
Seattle 6 8 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1
Arizona 4 10 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 12 2 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9
NY Jets 10 4 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8
Miami 7 7 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7
Buffalo 4 10 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 10 4 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2
Pittsburgh 10 4 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5
Cleveland 5 9 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0
Cincinnati 3 11 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 8 6 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5
Jacksonville 8 6 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0
Houston 5 9 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2
Tennessee 6 8 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 6 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9
Oakland 7 7 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3
Kansas City 9 5 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6
Denver 3 11 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
       
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Carolina 18.7 20.7 20.4 13.5 37
Dallas ARIZONA 7.5 5.6 8.6 6.5 45
MIAMI Detroit 4.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 41.5
PHILADELPHIA Minnesota 16.1 13 15.4 NL NL
JACKSONVILLE Washington 8.2 5.1 8.6 7 45.5
ST. LOUIS San Francisco 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.5 39.5
TAMPA BAY Seattle 7.2 7.8 7.2 6 44
New England BUFFALO 12.5 10.6 13.2 7.5 44
CHICAGO New York Jets 4 4.1 4.1 2.5 36
Baltimore CLEVELAND 4.1 4.1 8.2 3.5 38.5
KANSAS CITY Tennessee 8 4.4 5.4 5 42
OAKLAND Indianapolis 1.7 0.5 2.8 -3 47
Houston DENVER 4.7 3.2 1 3 48.5
GREEN BAY
New York Giants 6 5.9 4.7 NL NL
San Diego CINCINNATI 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.5 44
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.8 6.3 6 2.5 48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 


Player Team G AYPA Int % PiRate
Tom Brady NE 14 6.8 0.89 114.2
Michael Vick PHI 11 6.6 1.52 107.6
Matt Cassel KC 13 5.8 1.31 105.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 6 1.49 104.5
Josh Freeman TB 14 5.7 1.42 103.4
Phillip Rivers SD 14 7 2.37 102.3
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8
Joe Flacco BAL 14 5.7 1.77 100.3
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5
Colt McCoy CLE 6 5.7 1.97 98.6
Matt Ryan ATL 14 5.2 1.76 97.6
Matt Schaub HOU 14 5.6 2.12 96.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7
Peyton Manning IND 14 5.6 2.46 93.7
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4
Mark Sanchez NYJ 14 4.6 2.55 87.3
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0
Jason Campbell OAK 11 5.1 3.05 85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12 4.9 2.97 85.3
Jon Kitna DAL 9 5.4 3.36 84.7
Drew Brees NO 14 5.2 3.33 83.8
Sam Bradford STL 14 4.1 2.71 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 8 4.5 2.97 83.1
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jay Cutler CHI 13 4.9 3.53 80.4
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0
Chad Henne MIA 13 4.7 3.48 79.7
Alex Smith SF 9 4.4 3.36 79.1
Carson Palmer CIN 14 4.4 3.46 78.2
Jimmie Clausen CAR 11 3.1 2.88 76.0
Eli Manning NYG 14 5 4.19 75.1
David Garrard JAX 13 4.6 3.96 74.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 13 4.3 3.86 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1
Brett Favre MIN 13 4 5.31 59.7
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7
           
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

December 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
NY Giants 9 4 0 329 250 107.1 105.4 105.6
Philadelphia  9 4 0 374 308 107.0 105.4 105.6
Dallas  4 9 0 321 366 99.0 99.8 99.9
Washington  5 8 0 238 310 93.6 95.8 92.6
 NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 5 0 306 189 108.6 106.7 105.0
Chicago 9 4 0 253 228 101.6 101.7 103.2
Minnesota 5 8 0 230 274 97.3 98.4 97.5
Detroit 3 10 0 285 309 96.5 98.1 94.8
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 11 2 0 335 243 106.9 106.1 107.5
New Orleans 10 3 0 330 240 106.3 105.0 106.6
Tampa Bay 8 5 0 260 267 99.4 99.9 101.2
Carolina 1 12 0 164 338 90.3 88.9 89.4
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 8 0 243 280 98.2 97.1 99.8
St. Louis 6 7 0 245 268 96.5 95.7 98.0
Seattle 6 7 0 261 329 94.2 93.7 96.5
Arizona 4 9 0 243 351 88.4 91.3 92.5
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 11 2 0 415 276 113.1 111.8 111.1
NY Jets 9 4 0 273 242 101.6 101.1 102.5
Miami 7 6 0 225 244 101.2 101.4 101.9
Buffalo 3 10 0 256 339 97.3 97.1 96.0
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 10 3 0 290 198 106.4 106.2 107.4
Baltimore 9 4 0 294 229 106.3 104.8 105.4
Cleveland 5 8 0 235 252 99.9 99.1 96.9
Cincinnati 2 11 0 262 345 95.0 95.1 93.9
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 7 6 0 347 318 100.7 101.3 101.7
Houston 5 8 0 316 355 100.2 100.0 99.0
Jacksonville 8 5 0 295 331 99.6 99.8 101.8
Tennessee 5 8 0 291 265 93.9 97.8 93.7
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 7 6 0 354 253 105.3 105.9 104.2
Oakland 6 7 0 314 307 99.2 99.1 99.8
Kansas City 8 5 0 295 268 98.1 98.6 99.5
Denver 3 10 0 269 376 91.7 92.3 89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads  
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
               
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday            
               
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals  
SAN DIEGO San Francisco 11.1 12.8 8.4 8 1/2 44 1/2  
ST. LOUIS Kansas City 1.4 0.1 2.5 NL NL  
Houston TENNESSEE 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -1 1/2 47     
INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 4.1 4.5 2.9 5    48 1/2  
CAROLINA Arizona 4.9 0.6 -0.1 2 1/2 37 1/2  
Cleveland CINCINNATI 1.9 1.0 3.0 -2    40     
MIAMI Buffalo 5.9 6.3 7.9 5 1/2 41     
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.1 3.0 3.0 2 1/2 46     
DALLAS Washington 8.4 7.0 10.3 6    45     
TAMPA BAY Detroit 4.9 3.8 8.4 6    43     
BALTIMORE New Orleans 3.0 2.8 1.8 2    43 1/2  
Atlanta SEATTLE 8.7 8.4 7.0 6    45     
PITTSBURGH New York Jets 8.8 9.1 8.9 6    35 1/2  
OAKLAND   Denver 10.5 9.8 13.1 6 1/2 44     
NEW ENGLAND Green Bay 7.5 8.1 9.1 NL NL  
Chicago MINNESOTA 1.3 0.3 2.7 NL NL  
               
PiRate Passer # 

Player

Team G AYPA Int% PiRate #    
Tom Brady NE 13 6.9 0.94 114.4    
Michael Vick PHI 10 6.8 1.36 110.1    
Matt Cassel KC 12 5.9 1.13 107.1    
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9 6.2 1.72 103.6    
Josh Freeman TB 13 5.6 1.54 101.8    
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8    
Phillip Rivers SD 13 6.8 2.51 100.0    
Joe Flacco BAL 13 5.7 1.86 99.6    
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5    
Matt Ryan ATL 13 5.3 1.68 98.9    
Matt Schaub HOU 13 5.8 2.15 97.6    
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7    
Troy Smith SF 5 5.6 2.38 94.4    
Colt McCoy CLE 5 5.4 2.36 93.5    
Peyton Manning IND 13 5.6 2.63 92.2    
Jason Campbell OAK 10 5 2.54 89.6    
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4    
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0    
Mark Sanchez NYJ 13 4.6 2.72 85.8    
Sam Bradford STL 13 4.3 2.53 85.8    
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11 4.8 2.91 85.3    
Drew Brees NO 13 5.3 3.43 83.5    
Kerry Collins TEN 7 4.3 2.81 83.4    
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9    
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1    
Jay Cutler CHI 12 4.9 3.49 80.7    
Alex Smith SF 8 4.6 3.35 80.3    
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0    
Jon Kitna DAL 8 5.1 3.83 78.8    
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 4.6 3.55 78.6    
Chad Henne MIA 12 4.7 3.63 78.4    
Carson Palmer CIN 13 4.2 3.62 75.6    
Eli Manning NYG 13 4.9 4.34 73.3    
David Garrard JAX 12 4.4 4.14 72.2    
Jimmie Clausen CAR 10 2.8 3.13 72.2    
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4    
Brett Favre MIN 12 4.1 5.13 61.8    
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1    
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7    
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8    
   
   
                           

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

November 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                       
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 4 0 310 257 106.6 105.7 105.8 2
NY Giants 7 4 0 277 240 103.3 102.5 103.3 2
Dallas 3 8 0 256 301 96.8 98.9 99.5 2
Washington
5 6 0 215 262 96.3 97.1 96.1 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Green Bay 7 4 0 269 166 109.9 109.9 106.8 3
Chicago 8 3 0 222 172 103.3 103.4 104.7 4
Minnesota 4 7 0 189 239 97.1 99.0 99.6 3
Detroit 2 9 0 258 282 95.0 96.7 93.9 4
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Atlanta 9 2 0 276 209 106.3 105.3 106.9 4
New Orleans 8 3 0 265 197 105.8 104.5 106.6 2
Tampa Bay 7 4 0 219 223 99.1 99.0 100.6 2
Carolina 1 10 0 140 276 92.7 90.0 90.3 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Francisco 4 7 0 187 225 97.2 95.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 5 6 0 213 231 95.2 94.5 97.1 4
Seattle 5 6 0 209 275 93.9 92.5 95.3 3
Arizona 3 8 0 194 319 88.0 88.3 89.7 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
New England 9 2 0 334 266 107.8 107.0 107.5 3
NY Jets 9 2 0 264 187 106.3 105.5 106.3 2
Miami 6 5 0 205 225 102.3 101.3 102.3 3
Buffalo 2 9 0 229 295 97.7 97.1 97.0 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Baltimore 8 3 0 250 188 107.4 105.9 106.1 4
Pittsburgh 8 3 0 254 181 105.0 105.7 104.9 2
Cleveland 4 7 0 216 229 98.6 99.5 98.2 4
Cincinnati 2 9 0 225 288 95.0 95.5 91.3 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Indianapolis 6 5 0 282 252 102.9 102.9 102.2 4
Houston 5 6 0 264 287 100.6 100.3 99.4 2
Tennessee 5 6 0 257 218 96.7 102.1 96.5 4
Jacksonville 6 5 0 240 294 96.6 96.5 98.4 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Diego 6 5 0 310 225 106.9 106.2 104.2 4
Kansas City 7 4 0 285 231 100.2 100.2 101.1 4
Oakland 5 6 0 255 256 96.3 96.4 97.7 2
Denver 3 8 0 250 323 93.6 95.2 92.2 2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PHILADELPHIA Houston 8.0 7.4 8.4 8 1/2 51 1/2
MINNESOTA Buffalo 2.4 4.9 5.6 6    44 1/2
MIAMI Cleveland 6.7 4.8 7.1 4 1/2 42 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.1 9.6 2.1 NL NL
KANSAS CITY Denver 10.6 9.0 12.9 8 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 9.0 7.4 9.2 7    43   
Chicago DETROIT 4.3 2.7 6.8 3 1/2 44 1/2
GREEN BAY San Francisco 15.7 17.5 11.5 9 1/2 42   
New Orleans CINCINNATI 7.8 6.0 12.3 6 1/2 46 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.2 4.3 4.3 3    44 1/2
SAN DIEGO Oakland 14.6 13.8 10.5 12 1/2 45 1/2
SEATTLE Carolina 4.2 5.5 8.0 6    39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Dallas 10.1 8.0 6.7 5 1/2 47 1/2
St. Louis  

ARIZONA
3.2 2.2 3.4 3    43   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.4 4.2 5.2 3    40   
NEW ENGLAND New York Jets 4.5 4.5 4.2 3 1/2 46   

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int %  #
Michael Vick Phi 6.8 0.43 118.3
Tom Brady NE 6.5 1.12 110.5
Kyle Orton Den 6.3 1.40 107.0
Matt Cassel KC 6.0 1.24 106.7
Matt Ryan Atl 5.6 1.23 104.5
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6.4 1.82 103.8
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.39 102.1
Josh Freeman TB 5.6 1.53 101.9
Vince Young Ten 6.2 1.92 101.8
Matt Shaub Hou 5.8 1.91 99.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 6.2 2.44 97.3
Seneca Wallace Cle 5.4 2.00 96.6
Joe Flacco Bal 5.7 2.19 96.6
Peyton Manning Ind 5.6 2.26 95.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.20 93.8
Colt McCoy Cle 5.4 2.36 93.5
Sam Bradford Stl 4.5 2.18 90.0
Matt Hasselebeck Sea 4.9 2.56 88.9
Kevin Kolb Phi 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo Dal 5.7 3.29 87.0
Drew Brees NO 5.4 3.29 85.3
Chad Henne Mia 5.3 3.27 84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 4.8 3.03 84.2
Kerry Collins Ten 4.2 2.80 82.8
Jay Cutler Chi 5.0 3.42 81.9
Donovan McNabb Was 4.8 3.31 81.8
Derek Anderson Ari 4.2 2.93 81.7
Shaun Hill Det 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jason Campbell Oak 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jon Kitna Dal 5.2 4.00 77.9
Carson Palmer Cin 4.3 3.47 77.5
Eli Manning NYG 5.2 4.26 75.7
Jimmy Clausen Car 3.1 3.01 74.9
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
David Garrard Jax 4.3 4.42 69.2
Bruce Gradkowski Oak 4.0 4.43 67.4
Brett Favre Min 4.2 4.86 64.8
Matt Moore Car 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

November 23, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)                      
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 3 0 284 226 106.9 106.2 106.0 2
NY Giants 6 4 0 253 220 104.1 102.5 103.5 2
Washington 5 5 0 202 245 97.3 98.8 99.0 3
Dallas
3 7 0 229 271 96.3 98.8 99.4 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 7 3 0 252 146 110.4 108.5 107.7 3
Chicago 7 3 0 191 146 103.0 102.8 102.7 4
Detroit 2 8 0 234 237 96.7 97.1 95.5 4
Minnesota 3 7 0 172 226 96.1 97.3 94.8 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 7 3 0 235 170 106.3 103.8 105.4 2
Atlanta 8 2 0 256 192 105.8 105.0 106.7 4
Tampa Bay 7 3 0 209 206 98.3 99.6 101.1 2
Carolina 1 9 0 117 252 91.5 89.0 90.4 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Seattle 5 5 0 185 233 95.4 94.9 96.0 3
St. Louis 4 6 0 177 198 94.5 94.6 95.8 4
San Francisco 3 7 0 160 219 94.2 93.9 95.6 4
Arizona 3 7 0 188 292 91.0 91.3 91.4 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New England 8 2 0 289 242 106.1 105.6 106.9 3
NY Jets 8 2 0 238 177 106.0 105.0 106.1 2
Miami 5 5 0 172 208 100.7 100.5 100.0 3
Buffalo 2 8 0 213 276 97.2 97.0 96.2 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 7 3 0 233 178 108.2 105.1 106.0 4
Pittsburgh 7 3 0 235 165 105.5 106.2 105.7 2
Cleveland 3 7 0 192 206 99.8 99.9 97.3 4
Cincinnati 2 8 0 215 262 95.3 95.8 93.2 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 6 4 0 268 216 105.6 104.5 104.8 4
Tennessee 5 5 0 257 198 98.9 103.4 100.2 4
Houston 4 6 0 244 287 98.4 98.4 97.9 2
Jacksonville 6 4 0 220 270 95.8 97.6 100.8 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 5 5 0 274 211 104.2 103.5 103.7 4
Kansas City 6 4 0 243 207 98.7 99.8 100.6 4
Oakland 5 5 0 238 223 97.9 98.1 98.9 2
Denver 3 7 0 217 287 94.3 95.4 91.1 2
 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New England DETROIT 5.4 4.5 7.4 6 1/2 51   
New Orleans DALLAS 8.0 3.0 4.0 3 1/2 50   
NEW YORK JETS Cincinnati 12.7 11.2 14.9 9    43   
WASHINGTON Minnesota 4.2 4.5 7.2 1 1/2 43   
Pittsburgh BUFFALO 6.3 7.2 7.5 6 1/2 43   
HOUSTON Tennessee 1.5 -3.0 -0.3 NL NL
NEW YORK GIANTS Jacksonville 10.3 6.9 4.7 7    44 1/2
CLEVELAND Carolina 12.3 14.9 10.9 11    37 1/2
BALTIMORE Tampa Bay 13.9 9.5 8.9 7 1/2 41   
CHICAGO Philadelphia 0.1 0.6 0.7 -3    42 1/2
Green Bay ATLANTA 0.6 -0.5 -3.0 -2    47 1/2
Miami OAKLAND 0.8 0.4 -0.9 NL NL
Kansas City SEATTLE 0.3 1.9 1.6 1 1/2 44 1/2
DENVER Bitmap

St. Louis
1.8 2.8 -2.7 4    44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS San Diego 5.4 5.0 5.1 3    52   
ARIZONA San Francisco 0.8 1.4 -0.2 Pk 40   

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.2 0.00 124.3
Tom Brady NE 6.1 1.22 107.5
Kyle Orton DEN 6.2 1.55 105.1
Matt Cassel KC 5.9 1.37 104.9
Matt Ryan ATL 5.6 1.33 103.7
Peyton Manning IND 5.9 1.59 103.0
Vince Young TEN 6.2 1.92 101.8
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.5 2.14 101.6
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.55 100.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.72 100.7
Matt Schaub HOU 6.0 2.11 99.0
Joe Flacco BAL 5.7 2.12 97.3
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.3 2.08 95.3
Colt McCoy CLE 5.4 2.36 93.5
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.8 2.69 92.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 4.9 2.23 91.8
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.39 85.9
Drew Brees NO 5.2 3.36 83.6
Chad Henne MIA 5.0 3.27 83.2
Shaun Hill DET 4.5 2.95 83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.8 3.16 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 3.35 81.9
Derek Anderson ARI 4.2 2.94 81.6
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.30 81.3
Jason Campbell OAK 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jay Cutler CHI 4.7 3.69 77.8
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Jon Kitna DAL 5.0 4.43 73.0
Eli Manning NYG 4.9 4.55 71.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 3.8 3.97 70.4
David Garrard JAX 4.7 4.67 69.2
Brett Favre MIN 4.0 5.20 60.7
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

November 16, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)                      
                       
Bitmap

NFC East
Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 6 3 0 257 209 106.2 104.8 105.0 2
NY Giants 6 3 0 236 193 104.8 102.8 104.3 2
Washington 4 5 0 183 229 95.6 97.2 93.5 3
Dallas 2 7 0 194 252 93.6 97.5 98.0 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Green Bay 6 3 0 221 143 108.1 106.5 104.5 3
Chicago 6 3 0 175 146 99.4 99.6 100.8 4
Detroit 2 7 0 215 202 98.9 99.4 97.0 4
Minnesota 3 6 0 169 195 98.4 100.0 97.6 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
New Orleans 6 3 0 201 151 105.8 103.1 103.9 2
Atlanta 7 2 0 222 175 104.0 103.6 104.9 4
Tampa Bay 6 3 0 188 206 96.0 96.9 98.9 2
Carolina 1 8 0 104 215 92.9 90.9 90.5 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Francisco 3 6 0 160 198 96.5 96.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 4 5 0 160 164 96.3 96.3 97.1 4
Seattle 5 4 0 166 199 95.9 95.8 98.1 3
Arizona 3 6 0 175 261 91.8 93.5 92.6 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
NY Jets 7 2 0 208 150 107.1 106.0 106.6 2
New England 7 2 0 258 214 106.3 105.0 106.8 3
Miami 5 4 0 172 192 102.8 102.2 102.0 3
Buffalo 1 8 0 164 245 95.0 94.7 92.9 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Baltimore 6 3 0 196 165 106.8 104.8 105.1 4
Pittsburgh 6 3 0 200 162 103.2 104.1 104.2 2
Cleveland 3 6 0 172 182 101.6 100.3 100.7 4
Cincinnati 2 7 0 184 213 98.0 98.8 96.7 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Indianapolis 6 3 0 240 185 105.4 104.1 104.7 4
Tennessee 5 4 0 241 179 102.1 104.2 101.6 4
Houston 4 5 0 217 257 97.3 97.0 97.4 2
Jacksonville 5 4 0 196 250 94.0 95.9 98.3 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Diego 4 5 0 239 197 102.6 102.2 101.9 4
Oakland 5 4 0 235 188 100.2 100.6 101.7 2
Kansas City 5 4 0 212 194 97.9 98.7 99.1 4
Denver 3 6 0 203 252 95.9 97.3 94.8 2

 

 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
MIAMI Chicago 6.4 5.6 4.2 1 1/2 40   
PITTSBURGH Oakland 5.0 5.5 4.5 7 1/2 41   
NEW YORK JETS Houston 11.8 11.0 11.2 6 1/2 45 1/2
Baltimore CAROLINA 11.9 11.9 12.6 10    37 1/2
TENNESSEE Washington 10.5 11.0 12.1 7    44   
Detroit DALLAS 3.3 -0.1 -3.0 -6 1/2 47   
Green Bay MINNESOTA 6.7 3.3 3.9 3    44   
CINCINNATI Buffalo 6.0 7.1 6.8 5 1/2 44   
Cleveland JACKSONVILLE 4.6 1.4 -0.6 1 1/2 43   
KANSAS CITY Arizona 10.1 9.2 10.5 7 1/2 44   
NEW ORLEANS Seattle 11.9 9.3 7.8 11 1/2 44   
Atlanta ST. LOUIS 4.7 3.3 3.8 3    43   
SAN FRANCISCO Tampa Bay 4.5 3.5 3.4 3    41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis
3.9 2.6 5.1 3    50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA New York Giants 3.4 4.0 2.7 3    48 1/2
SAN DIEGO Denver 10.7 8.9 11.1 10    50   
 
PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.5 0.00 126.0
Peyton Manning IND 6.1 1.03 109.1
Kyle Orton DEN 6.6 1.43 108.4
Tom Brady NE 6 1.32 106.0
Matt Cassel KC 5.7 1.50 102.7
Phillip Rivers SD 7 2.43 101.8
Matt Ryan ATL 5.5 1.48 101.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.85 99.6
Vince Young TEN 5.8 2.14 97.6
Colt McCoy CLE 5.6 2.02 97.6
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.1 2.53 95.9
Matt Schaub HOU 5.8 2.34 95.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.01 95.4
Joe Flacco BAL 5.5 2.36 94.1
Aaron Rodger GB 5.6 2.97 89.2
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.40 85.9
Jason Campbell OAK 4.8 2.92 85.1
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.21 84.3
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.06 83.4
Chad Henne MIA 5 3.27 83.2
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.6 3.08 82.6
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.8 3.57 79.5
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0
Jay Cutler CHI 4.8 3.66 78.7
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6
Eli Manning NYG 5.4 4.08 78.4
David Garrard JAX 5.1 3.89 78.3
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.87 70.7
Jon Kitna DAL 5 5.22 66.0
Brett Favre MIN 4 5.54 57.6
Matt Moore CAR 2 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

November 9, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 10–November 11-15, 2010

Current NFL Standings
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
NY Giants 6 2 0 216 160 108.0 105.0 108.7 2
Philadelphia 5 3 0 198 181 103.6 102.9 105.0 2
Washington 4 4 0 155 170 98.2 99.2 99.6 4
Dallas 1 7 0 161 232 90.4 94.8 90.0 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 6 3 0 221 143 108.1 106.5 106.7 3
Minnesota 3 5 0 156 168 99.6 100.2 96.5 3
Detroit 2 6 0 203 188 99.0 99.8 101.1 4
Chicago 5 3 0 148 133 98.2 99.3 101.4 2
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 6 3 0 201 151 105.8 103.0 106.1 2
Atlanta 6 2 0 196 154 103.2 102.9 106.1 3
Tampa Bay 5 3 0 157 190 94.7 96.7 100.8 2
Carolina 1 7 0 88 184 94.2 90.9 91.2 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Francisco 2 6 0 137 178 97.1 95.6 97.5 4
St. Louis 4 4 0 140 141 95.7 96.9 99.3 3
Arizona 3 5 0 157 225 94.3 94.6 92.5 4
Seattle 4 4 0 130 181 93.4 94.1 94.6 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
NY Jets 6 2 0 182 130 107.3 105.4 106.9 4
New England 6 2 0 219 188 104.7 104.0 104.3 2
Miami 4 4 0 143 175 101.7 100.3 101.1 2
Buffalo 0 8 0 150 233 94.9 93.4 93.6 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 6 2 0 175 139 107.6 104.8 105.6 2
Pittsburgh 6 2 0 174 123 104.8 106.4 105.4 2
Cleveland 3 5 0 152 156 101.4 100.2 101.1 2
Cincinnati 2 6 0 167 190 97.5 97.9 93.2 4
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 5 3 0 187 151 105.9 105.4 104.2 4
Tennessee 5 3 0 224 150 103.2 106.6 103.3 2
Houston 4 4 0 176 196 97.5 98.4 97.5 2
Jacksonville 4 4 0 165 226 93.8 95.2 95.5 4
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 4 5 0 239 197 102.6 102.8 100.0 4
Kansas City 5 3 0 183 145 100.3 101.4 100.5 2
Oakland 5 4 0 235 188 100.2 100.6 100.3 2
Denver 2 6 0 154 223 93.5 94.7 90.6 2

 

THIS WEEK’S PIRATE, MEAN, AND BIAS SPREADS

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore ATLANTA 1.4 -1.1 -3.5 -1 1/2 43   
INDIANAPOLIS Cincinnati 12.4 11.5 15.0 8    47 1/2
JACKSONVILLE Houston 0.3 0.8 2.0 2    50   
MIAMI Tennessee 0.5 -4.3 -0.1 -1    42 1/2
CHICAGO Minnesota 0.6 1.1 6.9 -1    40 1/2
Detroit BUFFALO 2.1 4.4 5.5 -3    42 1/2
New York Jets CLEVELAND 3.9 3.2 3.8 3    37   
TAMPA BAY Carolina 2.5 7.8 11.6 7    35 1/2
Kansas City DENVER 4.8 4.7 7.9 1    42   
SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis 5.4 2.7 2.2 6    38 1/2
ARIZONA Seattle 4.9 4.5 1.9 3    41   
NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas 19.6 12.2 20.7 14    45   
PITTSBURGH New England 2.1 4.4 3.1 4 1/2 45   
Philadelphia WASHINGTON 1.4 -0.3 1.4 3 42   

 

PIRATE QUARTERBACK PASSER FORMULA

 

Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #  
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5  
Peyton Manning IND 6.2 1.14 108.7  
Vince Young TEN 6.5 1.64 106.0  
Kyle Orton DEN 6.4 1.58 105.9  
Tom Brady NE 5.7 1.53 102.4  
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.43 101.8  
Matt Ryan ATL 5.5 1.74 99.5  
Matt Cassel KC 5.2 1.87 96.7  
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6  
Mark San chez NYJ 5.2 1.97 95.8  
Josh Freeman TB 5.3 2.03 95.8  
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.4 2.75 95.6  
Joe Flacco BAL 5.6 2.28 95.3  
Matt Schaub HOU 5.4 2.62 91.2  
Carson Palmer CIN 4.9 2.52 89.3  
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.97 89.2  
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4  
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0  
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 2.89 86.0  
Jason Campbell OAK 4.8 2.92 85.1  
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.21 84.3  
Chad Henne MIA 4.9 3.24 83.0  
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.6 3.08 82.6  
Jay Cutler CHI 4.9 3.32 82.2  
Sam Bradford STL 3.9 2.74 81.7  
Kerry Collins TEN 4.6 3.45 79.4  
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0  
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6  
Eli Manning NYG 5.3 4.06 78.0  
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8  
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6  
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.87 70.7  
David Garrard JAX 4.2 4.70 66.2  
Brett Favre MIN 4.3 5.04 63.7  
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.0 3.67 62.9  
Jon Kitna DAL 3.6 5.36 57.0  
Trent Edwards JAX 1.4 5.26 45.5  
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7  
           
Formula: [((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8  
 
 
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com  

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New York Giants              12-4

2. Atlanta Falcons                 12-4

3. Green Bay Packers           10-6

4. Seattle Seahawks                 8-8

5. New Orleans Saints           11-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles           11-5

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh Steelers            13-3

2. New York Jets                   12-4

3. Indianapolis Colts             10-6

4. Kansas City Chiefs            10-6

5. Baltimore Ravens              12-4

6. New England Patriots       11-5

November 2, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 9–November 7-8, 2010

AFC West Showdown in Oakland

 

How long has it been since a Raiders-Chiefs game meant so much?  Not since 1993 has this rivalry game been so important.  

 

Those of us that remember football from 45 years ago can remember some wild games between these two teams.  In 1968, Chiefs’ head coach Hank Stram faced a dilemma when the 5-1 Chiefs hosted the 5-1 Raiders.  His top receivers were injured and would miss the game.  Kansas City had three excellent running backs.  Stram installed a double tight end full-house T formation and ran the ball almost exclusively.  Len Dawson threw just three passes that day, but the running back trio of Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes rushed for close to 300 yards in a shocking win over the Raiders.

 

The two teams finished the season tied at 12-2, and they faced off in Oakland in a playoff for the AFL West title.  Oakland got revenge with a 41-6 blowout.

 

The following year, Oakland beat the Chiefs in a preseason game, and then beat them twice during the regular season.  In 1969, in the AFL’s final season, the league expanded its playoffs from two to four teams.  Playing for a fourth time, the Chiefs won in the most important AFL game of the season.  It put them in the Super Bowl.

 

The following year, the first as NFL members, the Chiefs appeared set to win when a huge fight broke out as the Chiefs were running out the clock.  Penalties forced KC to punt, and Oakland got the ball back one final time and forced a tie.  The Raiders finished 8-4-2 to 7-5-2 for the Chiefs.  Had Kansas City won that game, the Chiefs would have won the AFC West in a tiebreaker.

 

The rivalry took on added intensity when the Kansas City Athletics baseball team moved to Oakland for the 1968 season.  Sports fans in the city of Kansas City had an axe to grind with the fans from the city of Oakland.  It did not hurt that the Chiefs and Raiders were the two best teams in the old American Football League.  In the 1969 expansion of Major League Baseball, Kansas City was awarded a new franchise, and it was placed in the same division as Oakland.

 

Back to the present.  The Raiders have awakened and won two games in a row by a combined score of 92-17.  Kansas City holds a 1 ½ game lead at 5-2.  This game means something again.

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
New York Giants 104.0 104.2 106.0 5-2-0 25.0 21.9
Philadelphia 102.9 102.4 103.6 4-3-0 24.6 22.4
Washington 98.2 99.8 99.7 4-4-0 19.4 21.3
Dallas 96.4 97.2 92.9 1-6-0 22.0 26.7
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.1 104.8 105.1 5-3-0 22.0 17.0
Minnesota 102.1 101.0 97.8 2-5-0 18.4 20.6
Chicago 98.1 100.0 100.4 4-3-0 18.0 16.3
Detroit 97.7 98.7 100.0 2-5-0 26.1 23.6
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 103.8 103.8 105.3 5-2-0 24.1 19.0
New Orleans 102.8 101.9 103.5 5-3-0 20.9 18.5
Carolina 96.2 92.2 90.6 1-6-0 12.1 21.4
Tampa Bay 93.1 96.3 99.8 5-2-0 19.4 23.3
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 97.1 95.4 96.8 2-6-0 17.1 22.3
Seattle 96.4 96.8 98.2 4-3-0 17.6 20.0
St. Louis 95.7 96.7 98.6 4-4-0 17.5 17.6
Arizona 92.8 94.7 92.3 3-4-0 19.0 28.3
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 108.1 106.3 106.0 5-2-0 22.7 15.7
New England 107.2 106.4 107.1 6-1-0 29.3 22.0
Miami 103.4 101.3 102.3 4-3-0 19.0 21.3
Buffalo 95.0 92.5 94.6 0-7-0 18.7 30.1
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 105.4 103.8 104.4 5-2-0 21.3 18.4
Pittsburgh 104.1 105.9 104.5 5-2-0 21.0 14.6
Cleveland 98.4 97.4 96.3 2-5-0 16.9 20.3
Cincinnati 98.2 97.7 94.5 2-5-0 20.9 23.3
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 106.6 105.9 106.2 5-2-0 23.3 17.9
Tennessee 103.2 106.1 103.2 5-3-0 28.0 18.8
Houston 98.8 99.4 99.8 4-3-0 21.9 23.9
Jacksonville 93.8 94.8 96.1 4-4-0 20.6 28.3
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 101.8 100.9 100.1 3-5-0 26.3 21.8
Oakland 100.5 100.0 100.3 4-4-0 26.5 21.0
Kansas City 100.0 101.6 101.7 5-2-0 23.3 17.4
Denver 93.5 94.3 92.3 2-6-0 19.3 27.9

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 9: November 7-8, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 4:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Chicago BUFFALO 1.1 5.5 3.8 3    40 1/2
San Diego HOUSTON 1.0 -0.5 -1.7 2 1/2 50   
New Orleans CAROLINA 4.6 7.7 10.9 7 42   
MINNESOTA Arizona 12.3 9.3 8.5 9 40 1/2
ATLANTA Tampa Bay 13.7 10.5 8.5 9 44 1/2
New York Jets DETROIT 6.4 3.6 2.0 4 41 1/2
BALTIMORE Miami 4.0 4.5 4.1 5 1/2 40 1/2
New England CLEVELAND 6.8 7.0 8.8 4 1/2 44   
New York Giants SEATTLE 3.6 3.4 3.8 5 1/2 41 1/2
OAKLAND Kansas City 2.5 0.4 0.6 2 1/2 40 1/2
Indianapolis PHILADELPHIA 1.7 1.5 0.6 -3    46 1/2
GREEN BAY Dallas 11.7 10.6 15.2 7 1/2 45 1/2
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 1.9 4.2 6.0 4 1/2 41 1/2

 

PiRate Passer Rating  
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #  
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5  
Peyton Manning IND 6.7 0.67 115.6  
Vince Young TEN 6.5 1.64 106.0  
Kyle Orton DEN 6.4 1.58 105.9  
Josh Freeman TB 5.5 1.34 103.0  
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7.1 2.44 102.3  
Phillip Rivers SD 6.7 2.29 101.4  
Tom Brady NE 5.7 1.78 100.3  
Matt Cassel KC 5.4 1.68 99.5  
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6  
Matt Ryan ATL 5.3 1.98 96.2  
Mark Sanchez NYJ 4.9 1.86 95.1  
Chad Henne MIA 5.3 2.46 92.0  
Joe Flacco BAL 5.3 2.54 91.3  
Matt Schaub HOU 5.3 2.55 91.2  
Carson Palmer CIN 5 2.48 90.2  
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4  
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0  
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 2.89 86.0  
Jason Campbell OAK 4.9 2.90 85.9  
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.7 2.84 85.3  
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.3 3.35 84.2  
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.32 83.3  
Sam Bradford STL 3.9 2.74 81.7  
Kerry Collins TEN 4.6 3.45 79.4  
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0  
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6  
Jay Cutler CHI 4.8 3.87 76.8  
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8  
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6  
Eli Manning NYG 4.8 4.60 70.4  
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.6 3.30 69.5  
David Garrard JAX 4.2 4.70 66.2  
Derek Anderson ARI 3.5 4.52 63.9  
Brett Favre MIN 3.8 5.21 59.4  
Charlie Batch PIT 3.7 6.12 50.8  
Trent Edwards JAX 1.4 5.26 45.5  
Matt Moore CAR 2.1 7.30 31.5  
Max Hall ARI 0.5 6.67 28.1  
PiRate Passer Rating Formula  
[((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8

 

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 
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