NFL Preview for Week 4: October 1-5, 2015

The Best Ever Debate
Already this season, we have heard the sports pundits ponder whether Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or even Drew Brees is the best quarterback ever to play in the NFL. They cite touchdown passes, completion percentages, lack of interceptions, and a host of other statistics.

We are here to tell you that these pundits are only correct in whatever statistic they use. Aaron Rodgers may be the best QB at avoiding interceptions, while greats from the past, like Johnny Unitas don’t even show up in the top 20. Unitas comes in tied at 135th in this statistic, behind such current star Ryan Pickpatrick, er Fitzpatrick.

Does this mean that the greats from the past, like Unitas, Starr, Namath, Jurgensen, Van Brocklin, and others don’t measure up to today’s quarterbacks? Certainly, this is not the case. The way the game is played today compared to the way it was played 50 years ago is vastly different, and the rules today favor pass blockers compared to the rules of yesteryear. There was a time when blockers could not use any part of their hand to block. Today’s hand pushing would have been holding penalties in the 1950’s and 1960’s, and by the way, holding penalties cost a team 15 yards then.
As for interceptions, of course these numbers are lower today. When you throw half of your passes 7 yards or less downfield, many of them at or behind the line of scrimmage, interception percentages will be much lower than if you throw the ball more than 20 yards down the field.

Today, on 3rd and 20, more times than not if a QB passes the ball it will be a very short pass to a back or tight end hoping to find a hole and run to daylight. In 1965, on 3rd and 20, a QB would most assuredly throw the long bomb. An interception in this case might have actually been preferable to a punt. If a pass is thrown 50 yards downfield and intercepted with no return, it beats almost every punting situation. Rarely does a punt produce a net advantage of 50 yards.

Touchdown percentages are not usable for comparing quarterback talents either. Today, a QB is just as likely to pass at the opponent’s one yard line than for his team to run the ball. In 1965, all NFL teams used a halfback and fullback in the offensive set, and some teams still used a full-house backfield inside the opponent’s five yard line. The better teams, like Unitas’s Colts and Starr’s Packers ran the ball 85-90% of the time in the deep red zone. Of course, these greats from the past threw fewer touchdown passes than today’s QBs.

What about completion percentages? If you look at career rates, you will find Brees at the top. Just behind in the top 10 include Rodgers, Manning, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger. To find a QB that played before 1970, you have to go all the way to 80th place and Jurgensen. Unitas is tied for 124th. Not-so-great QBs ahead of these two Hall-of-Famers include Mark Sanchez and Rex Grossman. And what about Broadway Joe Namath? He comes in at 166th.

So, obviously, current passers like Brees and Rodgers are much better passers than Unitas and Namath, correct? Not on your life, this is totally bunk, and we will show you why.

First, the QBs in the days where offensive linemen could not use their hands, passers had to throw the ball away to avoid a lot more sack opportunities. Teams like the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, and Oakland Raiders were noted for having top-flight pass rushes, where they averaged 4 to 5 sacks per game. No team today averages 4 sacks per game and few average as much as 3 per game.

Here is the key to these percentages. Let’s say Unitas and Brees both attempt 30 passes in a game. Unitas’s passes come in a 1964 game, whereas Brees’ passes come in a 2015 game. Let’s break down the types of passes each QB throws.

1. Screen passes and other passes thrown short of the line of scrimmage
2. Short passes thrown 0 to 5 yards past the line of scrimmage
3. Medium passes thrown 6 to 12 yards past the line of scrimmage
4. Intermediate passes thrown 13 to 20 yards past the line of scrimmage
5. Longer passes thrown 21 to 30 yards past the line of scrimmage
6. The Bomb thrown 31 to 60 yards past the line of scrimmage

Now, let’s show how a typical QB from 1964 and 2015 might distribute these passes.
1. Screens and other behind the LOS: Unitas 3 Brees 6
2. Short passes: Unitas 2 Brees 10
3. Medium passes: Unitas 4 Brees 8
4. Intermediate passes: Unitas 10 Brees 4
5. Longer passes: Unitas 6 Brees 1
6. The Bomb: Unitas 5 Brees 1

We really need not explain any further. Unitas’s passes might have averaged around 20 yards in length, while Brees’ passes averaged about 8 yards in length. It is quite obvious that it is much easier to complete a pass thrown 8 yards past the line of scrimmage than one thrown 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Additionally, many of Brees’ shorter passes are 3rd & long dumps to secondary receivers thrown well short of the first down sticks, whereas in the days of Unitas, teams just did not throw short of the sticks on 3rd down.

Unitas may complete just 15 of the 30 passes in this example, while Brees completes 20 of the 30 passes. Yet, both QBs pass for 240 yards. What matters is how many yards per pass attempt each QB gained. In this example, both averaged exactly 8 yards per attempt, the line where everything better is considered exceptional.

Averaging more than 8 yards per pass attempt has been consistently brilliant, whether it took place in 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, or 2015. Whereas all other statistics have varied over NFL (and AFL) history, this stat has been the one true correlation between success and failure.

Taken to the extreme, a Joe Namath or Daryle Lamonica type passer might complete just 45% of their passes, while a Brees or Rodgers might complete 67.5% of their passes. Namath and Lamonica might go 18 of 40 in a game, while Brees or Rodgers go 27 of 40. Namath and Lamonica might average 17.8 yards per completion thanks to multiple 40-60 yard pass completions (they didn’t call Lamonica the Mad Bomber for nothing). Brees and Rodgers might average 11.9 yards per completion. Guess what? In both instances, the total yardage gained is 320 yards or 8 yards per attempt. If you look at what 8 yards per pass attempt accomplishes throughout history, it is roughly 28 points per game, varying a little with rushing, defense, and special teams.
So, then, who is the best quarterback of all time? You guessed where we are going with this. Who ranks as having the best career yards per pass attempt?

The answer may or may not surprise you, but among the top passers in this category, there are 14 retired QBs eligible for the Hall of Fame, and 10 of these 14 are in the Hall of Fame. Of the other four, two are recently retired, and still might become a HOF member. Only Ed Brown and Earl Morrall rank in the top 20 in yards per attempt and are not in the Hall.

In Morrall’s case, he was frequently a backup to other Hall of Famers, like Y. A. Tittle, Unitas, and Bob Griese. When called on to fill in, he responded with two MVP-award seasons and an incredible won-loss percentage of 63.6%, including an outstanding 33-4-1 record when starting for a Don Shula-coached team (Baltimore and Miami). Morrall might have been a Hall of Famer had he not played behind three greats.

Brown is an interesting case worth researching. He was the quarterback of the 1951 University of San Francisco Dons football team that went 9-0 and was considered the best team on the West Coast with multiple future NFL players. Due to racist issues (USF was an integrated team), and because the available bowls of that time were all in Southern states, USF was not invited to a bowl, while inferior all-white teams received invitations. The Dons dropped football on that undefeated season.

Brown was drafted by the Bears and led Chicago to the Western Division crown one season with multiple second place finishes. He later was traded to Pittsburgh, where he led the Steelers to its best modern day season prior to the arrival of the Steel Curtain defense in the 1970’s. Brown’s career record as a starter was 55-38-5.

Now, just who has the best all-time yards per attempt mark? Did you guess Otto Graham?  Graham left a career mark of 9.0 yards per attempt. And, if you are wondering about the won-lost record for Graham, he is in a league by himself at 104-17-4 in his 10 seasons with the Cleveland Browns. In seven of those 10 seasons, Graham led the Browns to the league championship. In the other three seasons, Cleveland lost in the NFL Championship Game. Cleveland averaged 28.1 points per game in the 10 years Graham led the Browns attack. The year after Graham retired, after leading Cleveland to a 9-2-1 record plus a 38-14 pasting of the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL Championship, Cleveland fell to 5-7-0 without him.

When next you are asked who you believe is the best NFL quarterback of all time, you have your answer. Otto Graham was to football what Babe Ruth was to baseball and Wilt Chamberlain was to basketball.

Here is the entire top 20 list of quarterbacks by career yards per pass attempt.

#	Quarterback			Yds/Att.
1	Otto Graham			9.0
2	Sid Luckman			8.4
3	Norm Van Brocklin			8.2
4	Aaron Rodgers			8.2
5	Steve Young			8.0
6	Kurt Warner			7.9
7	Ben Roethlisberger			7.9
8	Ed Brown			7.9
9	Tony Romo			7.9
10	Phillip Rivers			7.9
11	Bart Starr			7.8
12	Johnny Unitas			7.8
13	Earl Morrall			7.7
14	Len Dawson			7.7
15	Peyton Manning			7.7
16	Roger Staubach			7.7
17	Dan Fouts			7.7
18	Sonny Jurgensen			7.6
19	Trent Green			7.6
20	Drew Brees			7.6

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	105.8	104.5	106.1	105.5	2-1-0	75	75
Philadelphia	103.2	102.6	103.4	103.1	1-2-0	58	63
N.Y. Giants	99.5	99.4	100.0	99.6	1-2-0	78	72
Washington	94.2	93.7	93.5	93.8	1-2-0	55	59
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	108.6	107.9	109.0	108.5	3-0-0	96	68
Minnesota	101.2	98.8	102.5	100.8	2-1-0	60	50
Detroit	100.8	99.5	100.3	100.2	0-3-0	56	83
Chicago	92.7	91.7	92.5	92.3	0-3-0	46	105
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	101.1	100.8	101.2	101.0	3-0-0	71	48
Atlanta	99.5	100.0	100.7	100.1	3-0-0	89	72
New Orleans	97.2	93.3	97.3	95.9	0-3-0	60	84
Tampa Bay	91.4	92.3	91.0	91.6	1-2-0	49	80
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	107.1	106.6	107.2	107.0	1-2-0	74	61
Arizona	106.9	106.0	107.6	106.8	3-0-0	126	49
San Francisco	96.9	94.5	96.6	96.0	1-2-0	45	93
St. Louis	95.5	97.1	94.6	95.7	1-2-0	50	67
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	109.6	110.0	109.8	109.8	3-0-0	119	70
Buffalo	103.5	104.4	103.6	103.8	2-1-0	100	68
N. Y. Jets	100.6	100.7	100.8	100.7	2-1-0	68	41
Miami	95.6	97.4	94.8	95.9	1-2-0	51	74
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	104.1	104.9	104.3	104.4	3-0-0	85	56
Pittsburgh	104.2	104.4	104.4	104.3	2-1-0	76	52
Baltimore	103.7	102.8	104.1	103.5	0-3-0	70	84
Cleveland	93.3	91.8	92.8	92.6	1-2-0	58	72
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	101.3	101.7	100.9	101.3	1-2-0	56	80
Houston	97.3	98.6	97.1	97.7	1-2-0	56	60
Tennessee	96.1	95.8	96.8	96.2	1-2-0	89	77
Jacksonville	89.2	93.4	88.0	90.2	1-2-0	49	91
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver	107.0	106.5	107.0	106.8	3-0-0	74	49
Kansas City	100.3	101.7	100.6	100.9	2-1-0	79	89
San Diego	100.0	100.4	99.8	100.1	1-2-0	66	83
Oakland	92.5	96.7	91.6	93.6	2-1-0	77	86

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	4
Date of Games:	October 1-5
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	2.5	3.6	2.3
Miami (N)	NY Jets	-5.0	-3.3	-6.0
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	15.1	11.3	15.9
Buffalo	NY Giants	6.0	7.0	5.6
Tampa Bay	Carolina	-7.2	-6.0	-7.7
Washington	Philadelphia	-7.0	-6.9	-7.9
Chicago	Oakland	3.2	-2.0	3.9
Atlanta	Houston	5.2	4.4	6.6
Cincinnati	Kansas City	6.8	6.2	6.7
San Diego	Cleveland	9.7	11.6	10.0
San Francisco	Green Bay	-8.7	-10.4	-9.4
Arizona	St. Louis	14.4	11.9	16.0
Denver	Minnesota	8.8	10.7	7.5
New Orleans	Dallas	-6.1	-8.7	-6.3
Seattle	Detroit	9.3	10.1	9.9
(N) Neutral Site Game  in	London

 

NFL Report For Week 1–September 10-14, 2015

The 2015 NFL Football season begins with major quarterback news.  Tom Brady, expected to be out four games, is now in.  Tim Tebow, expected to be in as an Eagle reserve, is now out.  Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, the 2013 and 2014 Heisman Trophy winners, face off in week one in football’s equivalent of Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.  Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 100% healthy, but he hasn’t a healthy top-flight receiver.  Former Heisman winners RGIII and Johnny Football begins the year as backups, while veterans Matt Flynn, Christian Ponder, and Matt Cassel are men without a country, er team.  As for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Harvard scholar inherits the unenviable task of trying not to throw interceptions (3.5% rate for career) for the Jets, where each bad play will be scrutinized like the name on the back of the jersey reads, “Trump” or “Clinton.”

 

By next Sunday, all will be well, and on the field results will take over for off the field news.  The PiRates have finalized the preseason ratings and have calculated their first spreads of the season.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	106.9	105.6	107.6	106.7	0-0-0	0	0
Philadelphia	104.7	103.9	105.2	104.6	0-0-0	0	0
N.Y. Giants	99.9	99.7	100.4	100.0	0-0-0	0	0
Washington	93.2	92.1	92.5	92.6	0-0-0	0	0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	108.5	107.5	109.1	108.4	0-0-0	0	0
Detroit	102.9	101.8	103.4	102.7	0-0-0	0	0
Minnesota	100.5	97.4	101.9	99.9	0-0-0	0	0
Chicago	95.8	95.1	95.8	95.6	0-0-0	0	0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	100.8	100.0	101.0	100.6	0-0-0	0	0
New Orleans	100.1	95.4	101.1	98.9	0-0-0	0	0
Atlanta	95.7	96.1	95.8	95.9	0-0-0	0	0
Tampa Bay	92.1	93.4	92.0	92.5	0-0-0	0	0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	107.8	106.9	108.0	107.6	0-0-0	0	0
Arizona	101.3	100.5	101.3	101.0	0-0-0	0	0
San Francisco	99.3	96.9	99.1	98.4	0-0-0	0	0
St. Louis	95.9	98.6	95.0	96.5	0-0-0	0	0
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	107.9	107.9	107.9	107.9	0-0-0	0	0
Buffalo	99.8	100.6	99.6	100.0	0-0-0	0	0
Miami	98.7	100.3	98.0	99.0	0-0-0	0	0
N. Y. Jets	97.7	98.2	97.5	97.8	0-0-0	0	0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.7	105.1	108.2	106.7	0-0-0	0	0
Cincinnati	102.9	103.3	102.9	103.0	0-0-0	0	0
Pittsburgh	102.8	102.8	102.5	102.7	0-0-0	0	0
Cleveland	95.4	92.7	95.6	94.6	0-0-0	0	0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.7	105.8	104.9	105.1	0-0-0	0	0
Houston	97.6	99.1	97.5	98.1	0-0-0	0	0
Tennessee	93.9	93.7	94.5	94.0	0-0-0	0	0
Jacksonville	89.8	95.2	88.5	91.2	0-0-0	0	0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver	105.6	104.8	105.0	105.1	0-0-0	0	0
San Diego	100.8	101.7	100.1	100.9	0-0-0	0	0
Kansas City	100.2	102.2	100.2	100.9	0-0-0	0	0
Oakland	90.1	95.7	87.9	91.2	0-0-0	0	0

Week One Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
New England	Pittsburgh	8.1	8.1	8.4
Arizona	New Orleans	4.2	8.1	3.2
Buffalo	Indianapolis	-1.9	-2.2	-2.3
Chicago	Green Bay	-9.7	-9.4	-10.3
Dallas	N. Y. Giants	9.5	8.4	9.7
Denver	Baltimore	1.9	2.7	-0.2
Houston	Kansas City	-0.6	-1.1	-0.7
Jacksonville	Carolina	-9.0	-2.8	-10.5
N. Y. Jets	Cleveland	4.8	8.0	4.4
Oakland	Cincinnati	-9.8	-4.6	-12.0
San Diego	Detroit	0.9	2.9	-0.3
St. Louis	Seattle	-8.9	-5.3	-10.0
Tampa Bay	Tennessee	0.7	2.2	0.0
Washington	Miami	-3.5	-6.2	-3.5
Atlanta	Philadelphia	-6.5	-5.3	-6.9
San Francisco	Minnesota	1.8	2.5	0.2

 Coming later this week:  Our solution to shortening the preseason while gaining revenue and increasing the fan base.

 

2015 NFC North Preview

A division that looked like one of the surer things in the 2015 NFL became very unsure in week two of the NFL Preseason.  When Green Bay wide receiver Jordy Nelson went down with a season-ending injury, the Packers’ advantage over their three division rivals went with him.  Now, this division is an open race, and all four teams could stay in contention through Thanksgiving.  The PiRate Ratings for the Packers will change between this entry and the opening week of the season, as Nelson is almost as valuable to the green and gold offense as Aaron Rodgers.

Detroit now becomes the co-favorite in the old “Black and Blue” division with a rifle-armed quarterback in Matthew Stafford and two all-pro receivers in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.  But, a running attack that has no star will allow defenses to key on Johnson and Tate.  Losing Ndamukong Suh will affect the defense.

 

Minnesota is the tiger in the tall grass in this division.  The Vikings are on the verge of becoming relevant again with an improving defense and more consistent offense.  The return of Adrian Peterson should allow Teddy Bridgewater to have more holes in pass defense coverage to locate new receiver Mike Wallace.  Our PiRate Ratings have a pre-set automatic improvement with this team if the Vikings start the season 3-0 like we think they have the chance to do.

 

Chicago is at a crossroads.  The Mark Trestman era was a short-lived failure, and the John Fox era begins after Fox left Denver following a lackluster blowout loss to Indianapolis, in which the Broncos did not act like they were happy to be there.  The Bears start over on defense with the switch from 4-3 to 3-4.  Jay Cutler lost his favorite receiver in Brandon Marshall.  The Bears could go either way this year.  Fox could bring the Monsters of the Midway back to respectability and challenge for a 9-7 season, or the Bears could sink to the bottom of the NFC, effectively ending the Cutler era in the Second City.  As the Vikings’ schedule gives them a shot at starting 3-0, the Bears are looking at a tougher start and could begin 0-3.

CHICAGO BEARS

Bears Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Alshon Jeffrey
WR	Eddie Royal
WR	Marquess Wilson
TE	Martellus Bennett
LT	Jermon Bushrod
LG	Matt Slauson
C	Will Montgomery
RG	Kyle Long
RT	Jordan Mills
QB	Jay Cutler
HB	Matt Forte
H-B	Dante Rosario
Defense
DE	Ego Ferguson
NT	Jay Ratliff/Eddie Goldman
DE	Jarvis Jenkins
LB	Pernell McPhee
LB	Shea McClellin
LB	Christian Jones
LB	Jared Allen
CB	Kyle Fuller
S	Antrel Rolle
S	Brock Vereen
CB	Alan Ball
N5	Ryan Mundy
Special
Kicker	Robbie Gould
Punter	Pat O’Donnell
KR	Marc Mariani
PR	Marc Mariani

Chicago Bears
Head Coach	John Fox
Off. Coordinator	Adam Gase
Def. Coordinator	Vic Fangio
2014 W-L-T	5-11-0
Pts	19.9
Opp	27.6
Ratings
PiRate	95.8
Mean	95.1
Bias	95.8
Average	95.6
Grades
Running	C
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	C+
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	A-
Predicted W-L	6-10-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	14
Overall Rank	26
Postseason	No

 

DETROIT LIONS

Lions Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Calvin Johnson
WR	Golden Tate
TE	Eric Ebron
TE	Brandon Pettigrew
LT	Riley Reiff
LG	Laken Tomlinson
C	Travis Swanson
RG	Larry Warford
RT	Cornelius Lucas
QB	Matthew Stafford
HB	Joique Bell
FB	Mike Burton
Defense
DE	Darryl Tapp
DT	Haloti Ngata
DT	Tyrunn Walker
DE	Ezekiel Ansah
LB	Tahir Whitehead
LB	Stephen Tulloch
LB	DeAndre Levy
CB	Darius Slay
S	James Ihedigbo
S	Glover Quin
CB	Rashean Mathis
N5	Josh Wilson
Special
Kicker	Matt Prater
Punter	Sam Martin
KR	Jeremy Ross
PR	Jeremy Ross

Detroit Lions
Head Coach	Jim Caldwell
Off. Coordinator	Gunther Cunningham
Def. Coordinator	Teryl Austin
2014 W-L-T	11-5-0
Pts	20.1
Opp	17.6
Ratings
PiRate	102.9
Mean	101.8
Bias	103.4
Average	102.7
Grades
Running	D
Passing	A
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	D
Coaching + Intangibles	C
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	5
Overall Rank	10
Postseason	No

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Packers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Randall Cobb
WR	Davanbte Adams
WR	Andrew Quarless
TE	Richard Rodgers
LT	David Bakhtiari
LG	Josh Sitton
C	Corey Linsley
RG	T. J. Lang
RT	Bryan Bulaga
QB	Aaron Rodgers
HB	Eddie Lacy
FB	John Kuhn
Defense
DE	Letroy Guion
DT	B. J. Raji
DE	Mike Daniels
LB	Clay Matthews
LB	Sam Barrington
LB	Nate Palmer
LB	Julius Peppers
CB	Casey Hayward
S	Morgan Burnett
S	Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
CB	Sam Shields
N5	Micah Hyde
Special
Kicker	Mason Crosby
Punter	Tim Masthay
KR	Ty Montgomery
PR	Micah Hyde

Green Bay Packers
Head Coach	Mike McCarthy
Off. Coordinator	Edgar Bennett
Def. Coordinator	Dom Capers
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	30.4
Opp	21.8
Ratings
PiRate	108.5
Mean	107.5
Bias	109.1
Average	108.4
Grades
Running	B
Passing	A
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C+
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	A-
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	1
Overall Rank	1
Postseason	Yes

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Vikings Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Mike Wallace
WR	Charles Johnson
WR	Cordarrelle Patterson
TE	Kyle Rudolph
LT	Matt Kalil
LG	Brandon Fusco
C	John Sullivan
RG	Michael Harris
RT	T. J. Clemmings
QB	Teddy Bridgewater
HB	Adrian Peterson
FB	Zach Line
Defense
DE	Brian Robison
DT	Linval Joseph
DT	Sharrif Floyd
DE	Everson Griffen
LB	Anthony Barr
LB	Audie Cole
LB	Chad Greenway
CB	Terence Newman
S	Robert Blanton
S	Harrison Smith
CB	Xavier Rhodes
N5	Josh Robinson
Special
Kicker	Blair Walsh
Punter	Jeff Locker
KR	Cordarrelle Patterson
PR	Marcus Sherels

Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach	Mike Zimmer
Off. Coordinator	Norv Turner
Def. Coordinator	George Edwards
2014 W-L-T	7-9-0
Pts	20.3
Opp	21.4
Ratings
PiRate	100.5
Mean	97.4
Bias	101.9
Average	99.9
Grades
Running	A
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	B
Vs. Pass	B
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	9
Overall Rank	18
Postseason	No

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL–November 28-December 2, 2013

The Division & Wildcard Races

NFC East: It is now a two-team race between Dallas and Philadelphia with the Giants and Redskins falling back out of the race.  Both teams have three home games remaining, but the important Week 17 game between the two rivals takes place at Cowboys Stadium.  This week, we favor Dallas to edge the Eagles out, and we do not project the Eagles to get in as a wildcard.

 

NFC North: Mediocrity has set in with the loss of two starting quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers is worth about 10-13 points per game, and his loss has turned the Packers into a poor team.  Matt Flynn is an improvement over Scott Tolzien, but the Packers will not get their star back until Week 14, by which time Green Bay could be 5-6-1 and 1 ½ games behind Detroit and possibly Chicago.  We believe that the Bears and Lions might both finish 9-7, so Rodgers would have to lead the Packers to four consecutive wins when he returns.  The Rodgers of December 8 will not be the Rodgers of September 8, and we believe the division race will be decided in Week 15 and Week 16.  In Week 15, Chicago plays at Cleveland and Detroit hosts Baltimore.  The following week, Chicago plays at Philadelphia, and Detroit hosts the Giants.  We favor Detroit by a tiny edge this week.

 

NFC South: Short of a collapse, Carolina will secure the number 5 seed with the first wildcard, while New Orleans will earn the number two seed and host a divisional round playoff game.  Or, it could be the other way around, since the two hot teams have yet to face off this season.  We believe the Saints will hold onto the two-game edge.  This week could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, as New Orleans goes to Seattle on Monday Night Football.  New Orleans does have an incredibly tough December with three road games against teams with a combined 23-10 record as well as Carolina at home.

 

NFC West:  Seattle should secure home field advantage through the Conference Championship Game.  The Seahawks host the Saints this week and follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco.  At worst, if they lose both games, they should still finish 13-3.  The 49ers and Cardinals are the top two competitors for the sixth and final playoff spot.  The two square off in Phoenix in Week 17, but we believe that San Francisco will have clinched the wildcard bid before that game.  The 49ers have a schedule advantage for the next four weeks with three home games, while Arizona has three road games in the next four weeks.

 

AFC East: It is now safe to write New England’s name in ink as the official AFC East Champion.  With a three game lead against mediocre opposition, there is no chance that the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs.  A possible 12-4 record should earn the Pats a Divisional Round home game and first round bye.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are all within one game of the final wildcard spot, but we do not like any of the trio’s chances.  Miami and the Jets have serious problems and appear to be heading to valleys.  Buffalo could pass both and finish in 2^nd place with a 7-9 record.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati is vulnerable here.  The Bengals are not a complete team.  They are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but the real reason is that some opponents can exploit their weaknesses, while others cannot.  What is left on their schedule?  Four teams capable of exploiting their weaknesses.  A 2-3 finish is quite possible, which would send the Bengals to a 9-7 record.  It should still be enough to win the division, but the Ravens and Steelers are both capable of finishing 9-7 as well.  Thursday night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game at M&T Bank Stadium will leave one of the rivals at 6-6 with an excellent chance to go 3-1 down the stretch.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis is much like Cincinnati, except the Colts are even more vulnerable to teams that have superb passing quarterbacks.  Still, the rest of this league is weaker than the three weaker AFC East teams.  At worst, the Colts will falter to finish 10-6, and that will win this league by two to four games.  Tennessee is the technical number six team as of this week, but the Titans’ next two games are on the road against Indianapolis and Denver, which will send them to a 5-8 record with three to play.  The last wildcard spot will go to a 9-7 team.

 

AFC West: The race has gotten a little interesting.  Peyton Manning once again proved his inability to play in cold weather.  The Broncos covered for him in the first half with the defense scoring or setting up the scores, but Manning had one of his poorest performances in a Broncos’ uniform.  Kansas City’s once stellar defense has been picked apart in successive weeks by division rivals.  Still, the Chiefs need only win one more game to wrap up a wildcard bid.  San Diego is the 5-6 team with the overall best chance to finish 9-7.  Phillip Rivers has seen his career resurrected with Coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt present.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	100.6	101.9	100.4
Philadelphia Eagles	98.9	100.1	99.2
New York Giants	96.3	96.1	95.5
Washington Redskins	95.0	95.0	94.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Chicago Bears	100.5	100.2	99.9
Detroit Lions	99.9	100.3	99.8
Green Bay Packers	98.2	97.0	97.1
Minnesota Vikings	94.6	94.0	93.8
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	107.8	109.2	108.7
Carolina Panthers	106.1	106.4	106.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.3	97.1	97.4
Atlanta Falcons	94.8	94.0	93.8
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	110.1	110.8	110.6
Seattle Seahawks	107.6	107.6	107.8
Arizona Cardinals	100.9	102.2	101.5
St. Louis Rams	100.8	101.6	101.3
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	106.6	104.9	106.9
Miami Dolphins	98.6	98.3	98.9
Buffalo Bills	97.5	96.6	97.5
New York Jets	93.0	91.3	92.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	106.3	106.2	106.4
Baltimore Ravens	102.8	102.4	102.9
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.6	99.6	100.0
Cleveland Browns	95.8	95.5	95.4
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	100.6	100.7	100.7
Tennessee Titans	98.0	98.1	98.2
Houston Texans	95.2	94.5	95.1
Jacksonville Jaguars	88.8	88.5	88.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.6	110.9	111.0
Kansas City Chiefs	102.3	103.7	102.7
San Diego Chargers	101.3	101.9	101.2
Oakland Raiders	93.6	93.4	93.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Green Bay	4.2	5.8	5.2
Dallas	Oakland	10.0	11.5	9.7
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	5.7	5.3	5.4
Carolina	Tampa Bay	11.3	11.8	11.8
Cleveland	Jacksonville	10.0	10.0	9.9
Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.3	6.6	6.3
Kansas City	Denver	-5.3	-4.2	-5.3
Minnesota	Chicago	-3.4	-3.7	-3.6
N Y Jets	Miami	-2.6	-4.0	-3.2
Philadelphia	Arizona	1.5	1.4	1.2
Buffalo (@ Toronto)	Atlanta	4.2	4.1	5.2
San Francisco	St. Louis	12.3	12.2	12.3
Houston	New England	-8.4	-7.4	-8.8
San Diego	Cincinnati	-2.0	-1.3	-2.2
Washington	N Y Giants	1.2	1.4	1.7
Seattle	New Orleans	2.8	1.4	2.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Detroit

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

San Diego over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

San Francisco over Dallas

Carolina over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over San Diego

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Seattle over Kansas City

2013 NFC North Division Preview

2013 N F C North Preview

The Old Black and Blue Division, it isn’t.  What once was a quartet known for punishing power running to set up play-action and long passes on offense going up against punishing defenders like Alan Page, Dick Butkus, Ray Nitschke, and Alex Karras, has become the air it out division.  Well, at least three of the teams in the division believe in pass first, pass second, pass, pass, pass.  When you have Adrian Peterson in your backfield, you run the ball about half the time.

 

Last year, the Detroit Lions scored 372 points; that was the worst offensive production in the division.  The Lions won only four games scoring 372 or 23.3 points per game.  In 1991, the year the Lions advanced to the NFC Championship Game, they only scored 339 points.  They averaged more than two points less per game when they last won the NFL Championship in 1958.

 

A return to the old plodding northern football of yesteryear is not on the horizon.  Expect the North to produce a lot of offense and average defense.  One team is liable to score more than 425 points, and that team should win the division.  However, it would not surprise us if all four teams were still alive in the division race after Thanksgiving.  This could be a season where after 12 games, there is one 7-5 team, two 6-6 teams, and one 5-7 team.

 

Green Bay is the obvious choice to repeat as division titlist.  The Packers have topped 400 points scored five out of the last six years, and they have made the playoffs in four of those five seasons.  The Packers have filled a cavity in recent years by drafting Eddie Lacy from Alabama.  Lacy should carry the ball about 15 times a game this year, and we expect him to take some of the heat off the passing game.  Look for Lacy to threaten the 1,000 yard mark, but if he averages four yards per attempt, he will do his job.

 

Aaron Rodgers is the best passer in the game in 2013.  As long as he stays healthy, the Packers will move the ball and score points on any defense.  He has one less familiar receiver in the lineup, as the team let Greg Jennings go, but this could be an addition by subtraction this season.  Wideouts Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson and tight end Jermichael Finley make up the top receiving corps in the NFC (not too far behind the group in Denver).  Add a very talented offensive line, and it is hard to see any team, and only inclement weather, holding a healthy Packers’ team under 21 points in a game.

 

Chicago and Minnesota both finished one game behind the Packers last year, with the Vikings earning a wildcard berth.  Both teams have a lot of talent on hand, but we see some liabilities in both that we believe will keep them behind Green Bay.

 

Chicago is talented enough at the skill positions to win 12 or 13 games, but the Bears’ offensive line has been more like a 12-game loser.  This year, the blocking corps figures to take a decided leap forward thanks to some help in the draft class, but we believe the team still needs at least one more new lineman before Jay Cutler can relax in the pocket.  Additionally, new head coach Mark Trestman brings an entirely new offensive philosophy, and we expect some transitioning early in the season, possibly costing the Bears a game or two.  Give Trestman time, and he will turn the Bears into the Raiders of 2002, where he directed the offense.  Trestman won multiple Grey Cups with Montreal in the CFL, much like Bud Grant once did before guiding Minnesota to four Super Bowls.

 

Speaking of the Vikings, if Christian Ponder can advance this year as much as he did last year, the purple and white might challenge for a second consecutive playoff spot.  However, we cannot see Peterson running for anything close to the 2,097 yards he gained last year.  He might pick up just 1,500 this year, and we don’t see that extra 600 yards being picked up by the passing game.  Thus, we believe the Vikings will fall back this season and possibly have to fight to avoid the cellar.

 

Detroit started the year 4-4 and then lost its final eight games last year.  This team is scary on the offensive side, but the defense scares only people rooting for the team.  We expect some improvement on the stop side, and the offense could be even better this year.  Matthew Stafford could easily top 5,000 passing yards this year, as he barely missed that mark last year.  He still has Calvin Johnson, who almost topped 2,000 receiving yards last year.  Now, he has one of the best pass-catching running backs in Reggie Bush.  Bush could top 800 yards on the ground and catch 50 passes for another 400 yards, and if so, the 2013 Lions could be as potent as the 2009 Saints.  Still, it might take 400-430 points just to break even on the won-loss ledger.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC North.

North	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Chicago Bears	Navy	3	30	47
	Orange	221	72	20
	White	255	255	255
Detroit Lions	Honolulu Blue	42	110	187
	Metallic Silver	133	136	139
	White	255	255	255
Green Bay Packers	Dark Green	44	94	79
	Gold	255	182	18
	White	255	255	255
Minnesota Vikings	Purple	75	48	106
	Gold	255	182	18
	White	255	255	255

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp Green Bay Packers 106.5 106.5 106.5 11-5-0 433 336 Chicago Bears 104.7 103.2 102.2 10-6-0 375 277 Minnesota Vikings 101.6 102.2 102.6 10-6-0 379 348 Detroit Lions 96.1 95.1 94.3 4-12-0 372 437

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	106.1	104.9	105.7
Chicago Bears	101.5	102.1	101.6
Minnesota Vikings	99.5	99.9	98.3
Detroit Lions	98.4	98.9	98.5

 

PiRate Previews

Team	Chicago Bears
Head Coach	Mark Trestman
O-Coord.	Aaron Kromer
D-Coord.	Mel Tucker
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Jay Cutler
Running Back	Matt Forte
Fullback	Tony Fiammetta
Wide Receiver	Brandon Marshall
Wide Receiver	Alshon Jeffery
Tight End	Martellus Bennett
Left Tackle	Jermon Bushrod
Left Guard	Matt Slauson
Center	Roberto Garza
Right Guard	Kyle Long
Right Tackle	J’Marcus Webb
	Defense
Left End	Corey Wootten
Left Tackle	Henry Melton
Nose Tackle	Stephen Paea
Right End	Julius Peppers
Sam LB	James Anderson
Mike LB	D. J. Williams
Will LB	Lance Briggs
Left CB	Tim Jennings
Right CB	Charles Tillman
Strong Safety	Major Wright
Free Safety	Chris Conte
	Special Teams
Kicker	Robbie Gould
Punter	Adam Podlesh
K-Return	Devin Hester
P-Return	Devin Hester
Predictions
Record	9-7
Division	2nd

 

Team	Detroit Lions
Head Coach	Jim Schwartz
O-Coord.	Scott Linehan
D-Coord.	Gunther Cunningham
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Matthew Stafford
Running Back	Reggie Bush
Wide Receiver	Calvin Johnson
Wide Receiver	Nate Burleson
Tight End	Brandon Pettigrew
Tight End	Tony Scheffler
Left Tackle	Riley Reiff
Left Guard	Rob Sims
Center	Dominic Raiola
Right Guard	Dylan Gandy
Right Tackle	Jason Fox
	Defense
Left End	Jason Jones
Left Tackle	Nick Fairley
Right Tackle	Ndamukong Suh
Right End	Ziggy Ansah
Sam LB	Ashlee Palmer
Mike LB	Stephen Tulloch
Will LB	DeAndre Levy
Left CB	Chris Houston
Right CB	Ronald Bartell
Strong Safety	Glover Quin
Free Safety	Louis Delmas
	Special Teams
Kicker	David Akers
Punter	Sam Martin
K-Return	Micheal Spurlock
P-Return	Micheal Spurlock
Predictions
Record	6-10
Division	4th

 

Team	Green Bay Packers
Head Coach	Mike McCarthy
O-Coord.	Tom Clements
D-Coord.	Dom Capers
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Aaron Rodgers
Running Back	Alex Green/Eddie Lacy
Fullback	John Kuhn
Wide Receiver	Jordy Nelson
Wide Receiver	Randall Cobb
Tight End	Jermichael Finley
Left Tackle	David Bakhtari
Left Guard	Josh Sitton
Center	Evan Dietrich-Smith
Right Guard	T. J. Lang
Right Tackle	Marshall Newhouse
	Defense
Left End	Datone Jones
Nose Tackle	Ryan Pickett
Right End	B. J. Raji
Left OLB	Nick Perry
Left ILB	A. J. Hawk
Right ILB	Brad Jones
Right OLB	Clay Matthews
Left CB	Tramon Williams
Right CB	Sam Shields
Strong Safety	M. D. Jennings
Free Safety	Morgan Burnett
	Special Teams
Kicker	Mason Crosby
Punter	Tim Masthay
K-Return	Randall Cobb
P-Return	Randall Cobb
Predictions
Record	11-5
Division	1st

 

Team	Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach	Leslie Frazier
O-Coord.	Bill Musgrave
D-Coord.	Alan Williams
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Christian Ponder
Running Back	Adrian Peterson
Fullback	Jerome Felton
Wide Receiver	Greg Jennings
Wide Receiver	Jerome Simpson
Tight End	Kyle Rudolph
Left Tackle	Matt Kalil
Left Guard	Charlie Johnson
Center	John Sullivan
Right Guard	Brandon Fusco
Right Tackle	Phil Loadholt
	Defense
Left End	Brian Robison
Nose Tackle	Letroy Guion
Right Tackle	Kevin Williams
Right End	Jared Allen
Sam LB	Chad Greenway
Mike LB	Erin Henderson
Will LB	Marvin Mitchell
Left CB	Josh Robinson
Right CB	Chris Cook
Strong Safety	Jamarca Sanford
Free Safety	Harrison Smith
	Special Teams
Kicker	Blair Walsh
Punter	Jeff Locke
K-Return	Cordarrelle Patterson
P-Return	Marcus Sherels
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	3rd

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 5–October 9-10, 2011

Faux Pas Logies To Our Readers

We here at the PiRate Ratings have to apologize to our readers for two mistakes.  The first one occurred last week, while the second one has been global.

 

Mistake #1: Three of you caught this and sent it to our attention.  We goofed on the Arizona and New York Giants Game.  If you saw our ratings, you probably noticed that the Giants should have been favored by 7.5, 3.2, and 4.4 points and not the Cardinals.  We hope that did not cause anybody any ruin.

 

Mistake #2: Our PiRate Passer Rating that we talked about had to be refigured.  One very astute reader—Robert in Boulder, Colorado, noticed from a past entry on our rating that we were using the AYPA stat found at Advanced NFL Stats and believing the acronym stood for “Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.”  We made this mistake due to reading one of their great blog entries about Air Yards.  Their AYPA is not Air Yards.  So, we had to actually create this stat from multiple data, and it wasn’t easy.  

 

Because of this oversight, we have had to tweak the formula a little to adjust the ratings so that the top passers will exceed 100.  The new formula is now:

 

[ ( Air Yards Per Attempt * 8 ) – ( Interception % *11 ) + 105 ] * 0.8,

Air Yards Per Attempt is (Total Passing yards – Receiver Yards After Catch) / Pass Attempts

 

Interception % is (100 * Interceptions / Pass Attempts). 

 

Here are the PiRate Passer Ratings After 4 weeks of the 2011 NFL season:

 

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Curtis Painter	IND	3.8	0.00	108.3
Aaron Rodgers	G B	4.9	1.42	102.7
Kerry Collins	IND	4.2	1.02	102.1
Sam Bradford	STL	3.6	0.66	101.3
Alex Smith	S F	3.8	0.93	100.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.7	1.61	99.8
Michael Vick	PHI	4.5	2.33	92.2
Tom Brady	N E	5.3	3.07	90.9
Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	4.2	2.27	90.8
Donovan McNabb	MIN	3.4	1.80	90.1
Drew Brees	N O	4.1	2.30	90.1
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	3.8	2.07	90.0
Matt Stafford	DET	3.5	1.86	89.8
Matt Schaub	HOU	4.5	2.65	89.1
Cam Newton	CAR	5.0	3.07	88.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.1	2.48	88.3
Josh Freeman	T B	4.4	2.76	87.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	3.9	2.44	87.2
Colt McCoy	CLE	2.9	1.74	87.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.2	2.14	85.4
Kevin Kolb	ARI	4.2	3.08	83.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	4.8	3.62	83.0
Andy Dalton	CIN	4.1	3.23	82.0
Tarvaris Jackson	SEA	3.7	2.96	81.5
Tony Romo	DAL	3.9	3.29	80.2
Chad Henne	MIA	4.2	3.57	79.5
Rex Grossman	WAS	3.8	3.50	77.5
Jay Cutler	CHI	3.1	3.05	77.0
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	3.6	3.42	77.0
Blaine Gabbert	JAX	2.3	2.90	73.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	3.9	4.23	71.5
Phillip Rivers	S D	3.2	3.82	71.0
Matt Cassel	K C	3.4	4.50	66.4
Luke McCown	JAX	2.5	9.30	18.4

 

As you will note, Curtis Painter is currently in the lead, but that will change as soon as he throws an interception.  Had he thrown just one interception in his limited time, his rating would have dropped to 21^st place on this list.  That is why we like to wait until most QBs have thrown 100 passes before releasing this rating.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings by Division:

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	105.3	101.8	102.8	3	3	–	1	–	0	102	87
Philadelphia Eagles	101.7	100.4	100.6	2	1	–	3	–	0	101	101
Dallas Cowboys	101.3	102.3	101.2	2.5	2	–	2	–	0	99	101
Washington Redskins	97.1	99.2	100.9	2.5	3	–	1	–	0	83	63
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	109.9	109.1	109.2	3.5	4	–	0	–	0	148	97
Detroit Lions	104.8	105.5	106.8	4	4	–	0	–	0	135	76
Chicago Bears	100.7	100.4	102.8	2	3	–	2	–	0	94	98
Minnesota Vikings	96.7	96.4	92.8	2.5	0	–	4	–	0	77	96
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	109.1	106.0	106.0	3	3	–	1	–	0	127	98
Atlanta Falcons	102.9	100.2	102.6	2	2	–	2	–	0	90	105
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	99.4	98.7	100.4	2.5	3	–	1	–	0	84	77
Carolina Panthers	93.5	95.0	97.6	2	1	–	3	–	0	89	102
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	98.8	100.0	100.9	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	94	75
Arizona Cardinals	94.9	96.6	95.9	3	1	–	3	–	0	86	87
Seattle Seahawks	91.7	93.3	92.1	3	1	–	3	–	0	58	97
St. Louis Rams	91.6	91.2	88.9	1	0	–	4	–	0	46	113
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	108.3	107.1	105.9	4	3	–	1	–	0	135	98
New York Jets	102.3	103.6	101.5	3.5	2	–	2	–	0	100	95
Buffalo Bills	98.8	102.6	104.7	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	133	96
Miami Dolphins	97.7	95.8	94.1	0.5	0	–	4	–	0	69	104
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	109.3	108.7	107.4	4	3	–	1	–	0	119	57
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.1	103.2	100.1	4	2	–	2	–	0	64	72
Cincinnati Bengals	96.0	99.6	100.1	2	2	–	2	–	0	80	74
Cleveland Browns	93.6	95.3	96.3	2	2	–	2	–	0	74	93
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	106.5	104.2	107.1	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	107	70
Tennessee Titans	101.8	102.2	104.9	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	88	56
Indianapolis Colts	96.5	95.5	92.3	2	0	–	4	–	0	63	108
Jacksonville Jaguars	93.7	95.0	94.0	2.5	1	–	3	–	0	39	85
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.6	100.8	100.2	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	91	85
Oakland Raiders	98.8	100.8	100.1	2.5	2	–	2	–	0	111	113
Kansas City Chiefs	96.1	93.5	92.4	2	1	–	3	–	0	49	126
Denver Broncos	92.1	96.2	97.1	1.5	1	–	3	–	0	81	111

 

Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for this week’s games.

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 5: October 9-10, 2011
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 4 @ 8:30 AM EDT
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
INDIANAPOLIS	Kansas City	2.4	4.0	1.9	2	38
MINNESOTA	Arizona	4.3	2.3	-0.6	2 1/2	44 1/2
BUFFALO	Philadelphia	0.6	5.7	7.6	-3	49 1/2
HOUSTON	Oakland	11.2	6.9	10.5	6	49
New Orleans	CAROLINA	13.6	9.0	6.4	6	52 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Cincinnati	0.2	-2.1	-3.6	-2 1/2	37
PITTSBURGH	Tennessee	8.3	5.0	-0.8	8	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Seattle	16.6	11.5	13.7	10	41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Tampa Bay	2.9	4.8	4.0	1	41
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	10.0	7.5	8.4	9 1/2	49
San Diego	DENVER	10.0	3.1	1.6	4	47 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	5.0	6.9	4.6	5 1/2	54
DETROIT	Chicago	8.1	9.1	8.0	6	47 1/2

 Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, and Washington have byes this week.

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 4–October 2-3, 2011

An Interesting Phenomenon

After three games of the 2011 NFL season, in each of the eight divisions, a team that did not make the playoffs last year is either leading or tied for the lead.  In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills own sole possession of first place.  The Cleveland Browns are in a tie for first in the AFC North.  Tennessee and Houston are tied for the lead in the AFC South, and Oakland and Kansas City are tied for first in the AFC West.

 

In the NFC East, the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys are in a tie for first.  Detroit is tied for first in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is tied for first in the AFC South.  San Francisco leads the NFC West.

 

The only teams that made the playoffs last year to be tied for the lead in their division are Baltimore, Green Bay, and New Orleans.

 

PiRate QB Passer Formula Returns Next Week

Beginning next week, we will once again carry the PiRate Passer Ratings for the NFL quarterbacks. 

 

The official NFL Passer Rating is out-dated.  There are several different sabermetric methods to judge passer efficiency these days, and most of these new versions put the official version to shame.

 

Here is the official version the NFL uses:

 

I.      (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.     (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.    (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.    2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  For example, let’s look at Aaron Rodgers to date.

 

Here are his stats.

 

Completion Percentage         71.84

Yards Per Attempt               8.9

TDs Per Attempt                  .078

INTs Per Attempt                 .01

 

(71.84-30.0)*.05 = 2.092

(8.9-3.0)*.25 = 1.475

.078*20 = 1.560

(2.375-(25*.01)) = 2.125

 

(2.092+1.475+1.560+2.125)*16.667=120.9

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes a 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 inch line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one inch away from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8, which is 2.1 points less than Aaron Rodgers’ current rating!  Rodgers is not worth more than a 98-yard completion every time he throws a pass.

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds of protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3^rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completes a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consists of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with that back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4^th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1^st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

 

For this example, we will compare two quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Tony Romo.  Manning has the better official NFL passer rating, leading Romo 104.3 to 95.8.

 

Here are the components for the PiRate Passer Ratings.

 

Manning: AYPA = 6.0  Int% = 2.35

Romo: AYPA = 7.4  Int% = 1.90

 

Manning = [6.0 * 7 – (11 * 2.35) + 105] * .8 =96.9

Romo = [7.4 * 7 – (11*1.90) + 105] * .8 = 108.7

 

According to our formula, Romo has been the better passer after three weeks of the 2011 season. 

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

 

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New York Giants	105.6	102.3	103.2	3
Philadelphia Eagles	104.0	101.0	101.4	2
Dallas Cowboys	101.7	102.1	102.4	3
Washington Redskins	96.7	99.5	100.9	2.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay Packers	107.9	108.2	109.0	3
Detroit Lions	104.4	103.6	103.8	4
Chicago Bears	101.3	101.0	102.2	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	98.0	98.5	96.2	2.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New Orleans Saints	108.9	105.6	105.5	3
Atlanta Falcons	103.6	100.7	102.4	2
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	98.9	100.3	99.7	2.5
Carolina Panthers	92.9	95.3	97.2	2
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	96.5	100.1	100.0	3.5
Arizona Cardinals	94.6	95.6	95.3	3.5
St. Louis Rams	92.0	90.9	89.2	1.5
Seattle Seahawks	91.0	92.7	91.8	3.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England Patriots	107.7	108.1	106.4	4
New York Jets	104.6	105.0	103.9	3.5
Buffalo Bills	100.0	101.9	105.4	3.5
Miami Dolphins	97.8	97.1	97.2	0.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	107.0	107.3	105.7	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.9	103.8	102.3	4
Cleveland Browns	96.3	96.3	97.5	2.5
Cincinnati Bengals	94.8	97.1	99.4	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Houston Texans	105.7	104.1	104.2	3
Tennessee Titans	99.1	100.6	100.4	3.5
Indianapolis Colts	97.0	95.4	92.9	2
Jacksonville Jaguars	93.9	94.6	93.4	2.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego Chargers	103.5	100.3	99.9	3.5
Oakland Raiders	99.4	101.6	102.5	3
Kansas City Chiefs	94.8	92.7	92.0	1.5
Denver Broncos	94.1	96.3	96.8	1.5

Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads.

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(n) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 4: October 2-3, 2011
Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 27, 2011  8:30 AM EDT
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
DALLAS	Detroit	0.3	1.5	1.6	3	47 1/2
New Orleans	JACKSONVILLE	12.5	8.5	9.6	7	46 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	San Francisco	9.5	2.9	3.4	6	41 1/2
Washington	ST. LOUIS	3.2	7.1	10.2	Pk	44 1/2
Tennessee	CLEVELAND	0.3	1.8	0.4	-1 1/2	38
Buffalo	CINCINNATI	3.2	2.8	4.0	3	44
Minnesota	KANSAS CITY	1.7	4.3	2.7	1	40
CHICAGO	Carolina	10.9	8.2	7.5	6 1/2	44
HOUSTON	Pittsburgh	1.8	3.3	4.9	4	45
Atlanta	SEATTLE	9.1	4.5	7.1	4 1/2	41 1/2
ARIZONA	New York Giants	7.5	3.2	4.4	-1	45
SAN DIEGO	Miami	9.2	6.7	6.2	7 1/2	45 1/2
GREEN BAY	Denver	16.8	14.9	15.2	13	47 1/2
New England	OAKLAND	5.3	3.5	0.9	4 1/2	53 1/2
BALTIMORE	New York Jets	3.3	6.3	5.8	3 1/2	40 1/2
TAMPA BAY	Indianapolis	4.4	7.4	9.3	10	41 1/2

The Pi-Rate NFL QB Rating

The PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3^rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4^th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1^st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side from 2009:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

Coming Later This Week: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2011 season and give our predictions for each division.

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England