The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 13, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

Can Boise State defend their Simper Bowl title from last season?  Will Auburn and Oregon make it to the title game?  Is there a dark horse team that can emerge like Butler in basketball?

 

Let’s get started with the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for four and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in “Simper Bowl III.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State, as the teams played to a 10-10 tie in regulation before Boise won in six overtimes 39-37.

 

Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls, 38-24 over Oklahoma in Simper Bowl I and 27-23 over Florida in Simper Bowl II.

 

Our simulated playoffs have 12 teams.  We take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and award them automatic bids.  We then take all other conference champions that finish in the top 12 of the BCS and award them automatic bids.  We then select the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and award at-large bids until we have our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams are then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds receive first round byes as a reward.  We also limit to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we need 11 games.  So, we use the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round begins today with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run next Monday; the semifinals on Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we are changing our format.  We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinals

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Arkansas or Michigan State

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Wisconsin or Connecticut

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Oklahoma or Boise State

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Ohio State or Virginia Tech

 

Semifinals

Orange Bowl: Winners of the Sugar and Cotton Bowls

Rose Bowl: Winners of the Fiesta and Capital One Bowls

 

Simper Bowl IV—The National Championship Game

Orange Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

 

Are you ready?  Here are the results of the first round games.

 

Outback Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

WINNER: ARKANSAS

 

Average Score: Arkansas 30.4  Michigan State 27.6

Arkansas wins: 59

Michigan State wins: 41

Outlier A: Arkansas 44  Michigan State 17

Outlier B: Michigan State 37  Arkansas 20

Arkansas Avg Yards: rush-113  pass-274

Michigan State Avg Yards: rush-144  pass-228

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.7  Connecticut 22.6

Wisconsin wins: 94

Connecticut wins: 6

Outlier A: Wisconsin 61  Connecticut 13

Outlier B: Connecticut 33  Wisconsin 28

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-246  pass-234

Average Connecticut Yards: rush-153  pass-159

 

Insight Bowl

#7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

 

WINNER: BOISE STATE

 

Average Score: Boise State 37.3  Oklahoma 29.2

Boise State wins: 66

Oklahoma wins: 34

Outlier A: Boise State 41  Oklahoma 20

Outlier B: Oklahoma 34  Boise State 26

Average Boise State Yards: rush-157  pass-269

Average Oklahoma Yards: rush-128  pass-249

 

Alamo Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.0  Virginia Tech 18.7

Ohio State wins: 68

Virginia Tech: 32

Outlier A: Ohio State 37  Virginia Tech 10

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 24  Ohio State 17

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-151  pass-177

Average Virginia Tech Yards: rush-111  pass-149

 

 

The quarterfinal round is now set and will be played next Monday, December 20.  Here is the schedule.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

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January 6, 2010

College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–The Simper Bowl

2009-10 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs

The Simper Bowl—The National Championship Game

 

Did you watch Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl?  I’m talking about the real one played on the field between TCU and Boise State in which Boise State won 17-10.  These two teams played in the computer simulated National Championship Game in Pasadena last night, and the simulated game was even more entertaining than the actual bowl game.

Before I tell you who won, let me state that the outcome of Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl played no part in this simulation.  In fact, all the games in this year’s college playoff simulation were simulated one night in mid-December, when I had access to the simulator.

This game didn’t want to end.  It went 6 overtimes.  There were 188 plays from scrimmage.  It was finally decided on a converted two-point attempt.  Your winner in the 2009-2010 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs is: Boise State.  The final score: Boise State 39 TCU 37

 

The Horned Frogs couldn’t stop Boise State’s Jeremy Avery at the goalline on the winning two-point attempt.

Regulation ended at 10-10 when Bronco kicker Kyle Brontzman nailed a 51-yard field goal as time expired.

Both teams score touchdowns in the first overtime to make it 17-17.  Neither team could pick up a first down in the second overtime, but both made field goals to make it 20-20.

The third overtime saw both teams miss field goals, so the score remained 20-20.  In overtime number four, Boise State scored a touchdown and converted on the two-point try.  TCU faced 4th and 7 at the 18 yard line and quarterback Andy Dalton scrambled for a touchdown.  The successful two-point try made it 28-28.

In overtime five, neither team could move the ball and both settled for field goals to make it 31-31. 

TCU scored first in the sixth overtime but missed the two-point conversion.  Boise State drove 25 yards in five plays for the tying touchdown, when Avery came up with the successful conversion on the game’s final play.

Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
T C U 3 0 7 0 27 37
Boise State 7 0 0 3 29 39
             
    TCU Stat BSU    
    28 FD 26    
    45-164 Rush-Yds 45-154    
    263 Pass Yds 332    
    25-42-1 Passes 31-56-2    
    3-40.7 Punt 2-40.5    
    0-0 PR 0-0    
    11-90 Pen 8-70    
    2-1 Fum 2-0    
    87 Play 101    
    427 Tot Yds 486    

January 5, 2010

College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–Semifinal Round

2009-10 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs

The Final Four

 

The Semifinal Round of the 2009-2010 PiRate Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  And, just which two teams will be meeting in the Simper Bowl?

In the first game at the Orange Bowl, #6 Seed Boise State pulled off the upset over #2 Seed Texas.  The Broncos scored 10 points in the first quarter and held Colt McCoy in check all day to win 17-13.

In the Fiesta Bowl, #4 Seed TCU stopped #9 Seed Georgia Tech’s vaunted option attack and blocked a punt that set up a touchdown in a 24-12 victory.

That sets up a Simper Bowl game between 15-0 Boise State and 14-0 TCU.  These two teams played for real last night in the actual Fiesta Bowl, with Boise State winning 17-10.  The simulation game was simulated in mid-December, so last night’s actual game played no part in the simulation.

Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Boise St. 10 0 7 0   17
Texas 0 3 3 7   13
             
    BSU Stat Tex    
    16 FD 16    
    38-144 Rush-Yds 24-102    
    178 Pass Yds 183    
    14-26-0 Passes 18-35-2    
    5-37.6 Punt 7-40.6    
    3-28 PR 2-13    
    3-20 Pen 9-70    
    2-1 Fum 1-0    
    64 Play 59    
    322 Tot Yds 285    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
T C U 7 3 0 14   24
Ga. Tech 0 3 3 6   12
             
    TCU Stat GT    
    18 FD 14    
    44-202 Rush-Yds 44-185    
    182 Pass Yds 63    
    15-26-0 Passes 4-9-1    
    6-43.2 Punt 7-36.4    
    2-15 PR 3-23    
    5-38 Pen 6-45    
    0-0 Fum 2-0    
    70 Play 53    
    384 Tot Yds 248    

January 4, 2010

College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

2009-10 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs

Quarterfinal Round

 

If you want to know the whys and hows of this computer simulation playoff, read the following entry from December 7, 2009: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/pirate-ratings-and-spreads-for-college-football%e2%80%93regular-season-final/

Four teams advance to the semifinals to be played released tomorrow.

In the Cotton Bowl #4 Seed T C U stopped Tim Tebow and #5 Seed Florida in an exciting game that went to overtime, before the Horned Frogs won 20-16.

In the Capital One Bowl, #6 Seed Boise State knocked off #3 Seed Cincinnati 38-20 in a battle of previously unbeaten teams.  The Bearcats couldn’t stop the Bronco running game as Jeremy Avery rushed for 126 yards and Doug Martin rushed for 102.

In the Rose Bowl, #2 Seed Texas showed its defensive prowess in a 20-9 win over #7 Seed Oregon.

In the Sugar Bowl, there was a huge upset.  #9 Seed Georgia Tech scored touchdowns on its final two possessions to pull off a 24-23 win over #1 Seed Alabama.  The Yellow Jackets won despite no completed passes.  Jonathan Dwyer scored the game-winner on a 74 yard run with 2:17 remaining in the game.

Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
T C U 0 7 6 0 7 20
Florida 10 0 0 3 3 16
             
    TCU Stat Fla    
    17 FD 19    
    45-116 Rush-Yds 48-166    
    192 Pass Yds 154    
    15-27-1 Passes 16-27-2    
    6-42.5 Punt 5-41.2    
    2-18 PR 3-11    
    7-57 Pen 5-52    
    0-0 Fum 2-1    
    72 Play 75    
    308 Tot Yds 320    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Boise St. 10 14 7 7   38
Cincinnati 0 3 14 3   20
             
    BSU Stat Cin    
    22 FD 17    
    46-255 Rush-Yds 30-77    
    173 Pass Yds 223    
    15-25-0 Passes 19-34-2    
    1-44 Punt 4-38.8    
    2-51 PR 0-0    
    4-25 Pen 6-41    
    1-0 Fum 2-0    
    71 Play 64    
    428 Tot Yds 300    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Texas 3 10 0 7   20
Oregon 0 3 6 0   9
             
    Tex Stat Ore    
    18 FD 9    
    39-142 Rush-Yds 33-81    
    211 Pass Yds 123    
    19-29-0 Passes 11-27-1    
    4-42.3 Punt 8-39.0    
    4-32 PR 1-(-2)    
    6-48 Pen 7-55    
    2-1 Fum 2-0    
    68 Play 60    
    353 Tot Yds 204    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Ga. Tech 0 3 7 14   24
Alabama 3 3 14 3   23
             
    GT Stat Ala    
    15 FD 17    
    52-271 Rush-Yds 41-156    
    0 Pass Yds 166    
    0-6-0 Passes 14-25-1    
    5-40.8 Punt 6-39.7    
    2-14 PR 1-32    
    7-59 Pen 6-45    
    2-1 Fum 2-0    
    58 Play 66    
    271 Tot Yds 322    

Check back tomorrow for results from the Semifinal Round.  In the semifinals, TCU and Georgia Tech will meet in the Fiesta Bowl and Boise State will take on Texas in the Orange Bowl.  Then, on Thursday, check back for the National Championship Game in the Simper Bowl.

December 22, 2009

College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–Round One

2009-10 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs

Round One

 

The opening round of the computer simulated playoffs are in the books, and four teams have advanced to the quarterfinals to play the top four seeds, all of whom received first round byes.

For a better understanding of these playoffs, see my December 7, 2009, post.  In the opening round, the four bowls hosting these games were the Outback Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Holiday Bowl, and Gator Bowl.  

In the Outback Bowl, #5-Seed Florida did nothing offensively in the first half against #12 seed LSU, but the Gators outscored the Tigers 13-3 in the second half to win 16-9.

In the Alamo Bowl,  #6 Boise State started the game with a nine play, 80-yard touchdown drive and never looked back in t 34-13 win over  #11 Virginia Tech. 

In the Holiday Bowl,  #7 Oregon scored two touchdowns in the final 6:41 to come back and beat #10 Iowa 27-19.

In the Gator Bowl, #9 Georgia Tech rushed for 145 yards in the first quarter while building a 14-0 lead over #8 Ohio State and then held on as the Buckeyes rallied in the second half to make it a 30-24 final

 

Here are the statistics for the games:

Outback Bowl

Team 1 2 3 4 F
Florida 0 3 10 3 16
L S U 3 3 3 0 9
           
    Florida Team L S U  
    15 FD 13  
    45-171 Rushing 37-117  
    156 Passing 138  
    13-21-1 Passes 12-25-1  
    5-41.4 Punt 7-40.6  
    41 Returns 26  
    1-0 Fumbles 0-0  
    6-45 Penalties 7-60  
    66 Plays 62  
    327 Total Yds 255  

 

Alamo Bowl

Team 1 2 3 4 F
Boise St. 10 7 14 3 34
Va. Tech 0 7 0 6 13
           
    Boise Team Va Tech  
    25 FD 16  
    49-281 Rushing 42-153  
    176 Passing 87  
    15-24-0 Passes 9-22-2  
    1-38.0 Punt 6-42.3  
    18 Returns 0  
    1-0 Fumbles 2-1  
    5-35 Penalties 6-53  
    73 Plays 64  
    457 Total Yds 230  
           

Holiday Bowl

Team 1 2 3 4 F
Oregon 0 7 6 14 27
Iowa 9 3 7 0 19
           
    Oregon Team Iowa  
    22 FD 16  
    41-180 Rushing 31-117  
    251 Passing 164  
    20-29-0 Passes 16-28-2  
    2-44.5 Punt 6-37.8  
    18 Returns -2  
    2-1 Fumbles 3-1  
    4-30 Penalties 9-65  
    70 Plays 59  
    431 Total Yds 281  

 

Gator Bowl

Team 1 2 3 4 F
Ga. Tech 14 6 7 3 30
Ohio St. 0 7 7 10 24
           
    Ga Tech Team Ohio St  
    24 FD 17  
    58-311 Rushing 38-164  
    108 Passing 183  
    6-14-1 Passes 17-29-2  
    0-0 Punt 4-41.5  
    39 Returns 0  
    3-2 Fumbles 2-1  
    9-80 Penalties 6-43  
    72 Plays 67  
    419 Total Yds 347  

 

Quarterfinal Round

In the next round, #5 Florida takes on #4 T C U in the Cotton Bowl; #6 Boise State plays #3 Cincinnati in the Capital One Bowl; #7 Oregon plays #2 Texas in the Rose Bowl; and #9 Georgia Tech plays #1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

These games would be the four New Year’s Day Bowl Games.  Wouldn’t it be great when all four January 1 bowls would actually mean something and guarantee that every game contributed to the real National Championship?

Check back on January 2 for results of the college football Elite Eight.

January 7, 2009

College Football Computer Simulation Playoffs–Championship Game

NCAA 2008 College Football Playoff Simulation

Championship Round

 

Welcome to season number two of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are seeded by BCS ranking.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2008 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC-Virginia Tech 9-4 seeded 12th

Big East Champion-Cincinnati 11-2 seeded 11th

Big Ten-Penn State 11-1 seeded 8th

Big 12-Oklahoma 12-1 seeded 1st

Pac-10-Southern Cal 11-1 seeded 5th

SEC-Florida 12-1 seeded 2nd

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC-Utah 12-0 seeded 6th

WAC-Boise State 12-0 seeded 9th

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Texas 11-1 seeded 3rd

Alabama 12-1 seeded 4th

Texas Tech 11-1 seeded 7th

Ohio State 10-2 seeded 10th

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

 

The First Round games were simulated Saturday, December 13.  Here were the results of those games.

 

Insight Bowl: #5 Southern Cal 20 #12 Virginia Tech 6

 

Cotton Bowl: #6 Utah 23 #11 Cincinnati 20 2ot

 

Chick-Fil-a Bowl:  #10 Ohio State 45 #7 Texas Tech 31

 

Outback Bowl: #9 Boise State 34 #8 Penn State 23

 

 

Quarterfinal Round Matches

Simulated December 20

 

Fiesta Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 48  #9 Boise State 21

 

Sugar Bowl

#2 Florida 34  #10 Ohio State 17

 

Capital One Bowl

#3 Texas 35  #6 Utah 17

 

Gator Bowl

#5 Southern Cal 17  #4 Alabama 10

 

 

FINAL FOUR

 

Rose Bowl

 

Southern California 27  Oklahoma 14

 

Orange Bowl

 

Florida 49  Texas 35

 

 

National Championship Game

 

Florida 14-1  vs. Southern Cal 14-1

 

AND THE WINNER IS………….

 

Southern California Trojans

 

Final Score:  USC 27  Florida 23

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

USC

3

10

14

0

 

27

Fla

6

3

6

8

 

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USC

Stat

Fla

 

 

 

 

18

FD

14

 

 

 

 

46-148

Rush-Yds

29-77

 

 

 

 

239

Pass Yds

223

 

 

 

 

19-32-0

Passes

19-35-2

 

 

 

 

5-41.8

Punt

6-40.5

 

 

 

 

3-46

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

7-60

Pen

6-50

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

64

 

 

 

 

387

Tot Yds

300

 

 

 

USC-Buehler 36 yd. FG, 1st Qtr. 10:33 (USC 3 FL 0)

Fla-Tebow 4 yd. run, kick blocked, 1st Qtr. 3:11 (FL 6 USC 3)

Fla-Phillips 29 yd. FG, 2nd Qtr. 7:55 (FL 9 USC 3)

USC-Turner 17 yd. pass from Sanchez, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 3:09 (USC 10 FL 9)

USC-Buehler 45 yd. FG, 2nd Qtr. 0:00 (USC 13 FL 9)

USC-Gable 9 yd. run, Buehler Kick, 3rd Qtr. 12:46 (USC 20 FL 9)

USC-Maualuga 44 yd. interception return, Buehler Kick, 3rd Qtr. 9:15 (USC 27 FL 9)

Fla-Demps 2 yd. run, 2-point try failed, 3rd Qtr. 0:54 (USC 27 FL 15)

Fla-Murphy 31 yd. pass from Tebow, Tebow run for 2, 4th Qtr. 2:27 (USC 27 FL 23)

 

Congratulations go to Southern California for winning the simulated national championship playoffs for the second year in a row!

 

 

The Real BCS Championship Game Simulated 100 Times

 

Florida won 59 of the 100 Simulations by an average score of 36 to 32.

Five of the games went to overtime, with one simulation going four overtimes.  Oklahoma won that one 68-66.

Florida won 11 games by 10 or more points with their biggest margin of victory being 23 points in a 55-32 win.

Oklahoma won three games by 10 or more points with their biggest margin of victory being 19 points at 49-30.

29 of the simulations were decided by three points or less, with Florida winning 15 and Oklahoma winning 14.

 

Regardless of the outcome of this game, there will be discussion that three other teams were just as deserving.

 

If Oklahoma wins this game, Texas has every bit as much right if not more to proclaim themselves champions.  They beat Oklahoma on a neutral field.

 

If Florida wins this game, then Utah has every bit as much right it nor more to proclaim themselves champions.  The Utes beat Alabama by more points than Florida did, and Utah had to play this game as if they were the road team.  Utah won at Oregon State, something that Southern Cal did not do.

 

Speaking of Southern Cal, the Trojans are hands down the best college team in the nation.  Most football experts, including the wise guys in Nevada understand this fact and would list USC as a favorite over any other team.

January 2, 2009

NCAA 2008-09 College Football Playoff Simulation–Semifinal Round

NCAA 2008 College Football Playoff Simulation

Semifinal Round

 

Welcome to season number two of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are seeded by BCS ranking.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2008 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC-Virginia Tech 9-4 seeded 12th

Big East Champion-Cincinnati 11-2 seeded 11th

Big Ten-Penn State 11-1 seeded 8th

Big 12-Oklahoma 12-1 seeded 1st

Pac-10-Southern Cal 11-1 seeded 5th

SEC-Florida 12-1 seeded 2nd

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC-Utah 12-0 seeded 6th

WAC-Boise State 12-0 seeded 9th

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Texas 11-1 seeded 3rd

Alabama 12-1 seeded 4th

Texas Tech 11-1 seeded 7th

Ohio State 10-2 seeded 10th

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

 

The First Round games were simulated Saturday, December 13.  Here were the results of those games.

 

Insight Bowl: #5 Southern Cal 20 #12 Virginia Tech 6

 

Cotton Bowl: #6 Utah 23 #11 Cincinnati 20 2ot

 

Chick-Fil-a Bowl:  #10 Ohio State 45 #7 Texas Tech 31

 

Outback Bowl: #9 Boise State 34 #8 Penn State 23

 

 

Quarterfinal Round Matches

Simulated December 20

 

Fiesta Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 48  #9 Boise State 21

 

Sugar Bowl

#2 Florida 34  #10 Ohio State 17

 

Capital One Bowl

#3 Texas 35  #6 Utah 17

 

Gator Bowl

#5 Southern Cal 17  #4 Alabama 10

 

 

FINAL FOUR

 

Rose Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 13-1 vs. #5 Southern Cal 13-1

 

Orange Bowl

#2 Florida 13-1 vs. #3 Texas 12-1

 

RESULTS OF SEMIFINAL GAMES

 

Rose Bowl

 

Southern California 27  Oklahoma 14

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Oklahoma

7

0

7

0

 

14

Southern Cal

10

3

7

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OKL

Stat

USC

 

 

 

 

18

FD

22

 

 

 

 

21-77

Rush-Yds

39-148

 

 

 

 

282

Pass Yds

267

 

 

 

 

25-43-2

Passes

19-33-0

 

 

 

 

5-42.4

Punt

4-38.8

 

 

 

 

1-9

PR

2-31

 

 

 

 

7-60

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

64

Play

72

 

 

 

 

359

Tot Yds

415

 

 

Mark Sanchez threw touchdown passes to Michael Turner on consecutive drives at the end of the 3rd quarter and beginning of the fourth quarter after Oklahoma had taken a 14-13 lead.  The USC defense held the Sooners to 11 total yards and no first downs in the final quarter, sacking Sam Bradfors twice on 3rd down plays.

 

Orange Bowl

 

Florida 49  Texas 35

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Florida

14

14

7

14

 

49

Texas

7

14

7

7

 

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fla

Stat

Tex

 

 

 

 

25

FD

19

 

 

 

 

39-183

Rush-Yds

18-44

 

 

 

 

290

Pass Yds

332

 

 

 

 

25-38-0

Passes

27-41-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Punt

3-42.3

 

 

 

 

1-12

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

6-44

Pen

8-58

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

77

Play

59

 

 

 

 

473

Tot Yds

376

 

 

Florida scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, as Tim Tebow started the game 15-18 for 176 yards.  Colt McCoy brought the Longhorns back in the second quarter; trailing 28-7, he led Texas on two quick scoring drives, topping the second one with a nine yard touchdown scamper.

 

With the score tied 35-35, Tebow ran off-tackle 26 yards for the go-ahead score, and then linebacker Brandon Spikes intercepted McCoy and returned it 41 yards for the touchdown that sealed the game.

 

National Championship Game

 

Florida 14-1  vs. Southern Cal 14-1

 

This game will be simulated January 7th

December 21, 2008

PiRate College Football Computer Simulation: Quarterfinal Round–December 21, 2008

NCAA 2008 College Football Playoff Simulation

Quarterfinal Round

 

Welcome to season number two of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are seeded by BCS ranking.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2008 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC-Virginia Tech 9-4 seeded 12th

Big East Champion-Cincinnati 11-2 seeded 11th

Big Ten-Penn State 11-1 seeded 8th

Big 12-Oklahoma 12-1 seeded 1st

Pac-10-Southern Cal 11-1 seeded 5th

SEC-Florida 12-1 seeded 2nd

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC-Utah 12-0 seeded 6th

WAC-Boise State 12-0 seeded 9th

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Texas 11-1 seeded 3rd

Alabama 12-1 seeded 4th

Texas Tech 11-1 seeded 7th

Ohio State 10-2 seeded 10th

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

 

The First Round games were simulated Saturday, December 13.  Here are the results of those games.

 

Insight Bowl: #5 Southern Cal 20 #12 Virginia Tech 6

 

Cotton Bowl: #6 Utah 23 #11 Cincinnati 20 2ot

 

Chick-Fil-a Bowl:  #10 Ohio State 45 #7 Texas Tech 31

 

Outback Bowl: #9 Boise State 34 #8 Penn State 23

 

 

Quarterfinal Round Matches

Simulated December 20

 

Fiesta Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 12-1 vs. #9 Boise State 13-0

 

Final Score: Oklahoma 48  Boise State 21

 

Chris Brown rushed for 130 yards and two touchdowns, and Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford passed for four scores, as Oklahoma scored on touchdowns on their first three possessions to win rather easily.

 

The top-seeded Sooners now advance to the semifinal round where they will take on Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Oklahoma

21

10

10

7

 

48

Boise St.

0

7

0

14

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OKL

Stat

BSU

 

 

 

 

26

FD

17

 

 

 

 

37-177

Rush-Yds

32-74

 

 

 

 

348

Pass Yds

213

 

 

 

 

24-37-0

Passes

19-32-1

 

 

 

 

2-40.5

Punt

6-39.3

 

 

 

 

2-14

PR

1-5

 

 

 

 

4-33

Pen

6-47

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

74

Play

64

 

 

 

 

525

Tot Yds

287

 

 

 

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#2 Florida 12-1 vs. #10 Ohio State 11-2

 

Final Score: Florida 34  Ohio State 17

 

Tim Tebow may have lost out on a second consecutive Heisman Trophy award, but the junior Gator Quarterback showed the nation that he is still the most versatile quarterback in college football.  Tebow opened the game with a 72-yard scoring pass to Louis Murphy.  On the Gators’ next possession, Tebow completed six consecutive passes and then ran off left tackle for 22 yards and a touchdown.  He finished the game with 67 yard rushing and 312 total yards.

 

The number two seed Gators now advance to the Orange Bowl and will play Texas on New Year’s Day.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Florida

14

10

3

7

 

34

Ohio State

0

3

14

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fla

Stat

OSU

 

 

 

 

23

FD

17

 

 

 

 

50-286

Rush-Yds

25-90

 

 

 

 

245

Pass Yds

219

 

 

 

 

17-25-0

Passes

18-34-3

 

 

 

 

4-42.8

Punt

7-39.6

 

 

 

 

5-73

PR

3-16

 

 

 

 

7-60

Pen

6-52

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

59

 

 

 

 

531

Tot Yds

309

 

 

 

 

Capital One Bowl

#3 Texas 11-1 vs. #6 Utah 13-0

 

Final Score: Texas 35  Utah 17

 

Colt McCoy completed his first 14 passes and joines two other Longhorns with more than 50 yards rushing, as Texas crushed Utah and advanced to the Orange Bowl against Florida.

 

McCoy rushed for 51 yards on 12 carries; Vondrell McGee picked up 57 yards on 17 carries, and Cody Johnson rushed for 71 yards on just 11 carries and scored two touchdowns.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Texas

14

7

14

0

 

35

Utah

0

0

3

14

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tex

Stat

Utah

 

 

 

 

26

FD

15

 

 

 

 

40-179

Rush-Yds

27-58

 

 

 

 

301

Pass Yds

241

 

 

 

 

25-32-0

Passes

20-37-1

 

 

 

 

3-41.0

Punt

6-40.7

 

 

 

 

1-8

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

6-50

Pen

8-67

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

72

Play

64

 

 

 

 

480

Tot Yds

299

 

 

 

 

Gator Bowl

#4 Alabama 12-1 vs. #5 Southern Cal 12-1

 

Final Score: Southern Cal 17  Alabama 10

 

Southern Cal took advantage of three Alabama turnovers inside Crimson Tide territory, and the stellar Trojan defense kept Alabama out of the end zone.  Alabama’s lone touchdown came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone.

 

USC now advances to the Rose Bowl, where the Trojans will take on Oklahoma in a battle of the best offense versus the best defense.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Alabama

0

3

0

7

 

10

USC

0

7

10

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ala

Stat

USC

 

 

 

 

8

FD

16

 

 

 

 

32-51

Rush-Yds

35-119

 

 

 

 

144

Pass Yds

207

 

 

 

 

15-27-1

Passes

19-31-1

 

 

 

 

8-41.6

Punt

6-33.3

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

5-69

 

 

 

 

4-30

Pen

5-40

 

 

 

 

3-2

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

66

 

 

 

 

195

Tot Yds

326

 

 

 

December 14, 2008

NCAA Football Playoff Simulation: Round One–December 13, 2008

NCAA 2008 College Football Playoff Simulation

Round One

 

Welcome to season number two of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are seeded by BCS ranking.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2008 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC-Virginia Tech 9-4 seeded 12th

Big East Champion-Cincinnati 11-2 seeded 11th

Big Ten-Penn State 11-1 seeded 8th

Big 12-Oklahoma 12-1 seeded 1st

Pac-10-Southern Cal 11-1 seeded 5th

SEC-Florida 12-1 seeded 2nd

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC-Utah 12-0 seeded 6th

WAC-Boise State 12-0 seeded 9th

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Texas 11-1 seeded 3rd

Alabama 12-1 seeded 4th

Texas Tech 11-1 seeded 7th

Ohio State 10-2 seeded 10th

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

 

The First Round games were simulated Saturday, December 13.  Here are the results of those games.

 

Insight Bowl: #5 Southern Cal vs. #12 Virginia Tech

 

Final Score: Southern Cal 20  Virginia Tech 6

 

Will Harris returned an interception 55 yards for a touchdown and Stafon Johnson scored on an 8-yard run in the second quarter to give the Trojans all the points they needed.  The USC defense held the Hokies to 14 total yards and no first downs in the second half.  USC now advances to the Gator Bowl to play #4 seed Alabama.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

U S C

0

14

3

3

 

20

Va. Tech

3

3

0

0

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USC

Stat

VT

 

 

 

 

19

FD

8

 

 

 

 

43-156

Rush-Yds

35-29

 

 

 

 

177

Pass Yds

108

 

 

 

 

15-26-1

Passes

11-24-2

 

 

 

 

5-39.8

Punt

9-41.1

 

 

 

 

4-71

PR

2-20

 

 

 

 

6-45

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

69

Play

59

 

 

 

 

333

Tot Yds

137

 

 

 

Cotton Bowl: #6 Utah vs. #11 Cincinnati

 

Final Score: Utah 23 Cincinnati 20 2ot

 

Running Back Matt Asiata lined up in the Wildcat Formation and then through a 29 yard running pass to David Reed for a touchdown to tie the game with less than a minute remaining in regulation, and quarterback Brian Johnson completed a 25 yard pass to Asiata on the first play of the second overtime, as Utah advanced to the Capital One Bowl and the quarterfinals.  The Utes’ opponent will be #3 seed Texas

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Utah

0

0

3

7

13

23

Cinti

0

7

3

0

10

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Utah

Stat

Cin

 

 

 

 

19

FD

18

 

 

 

 

47-174

Rush-Yds

44-159

 

 

 

 

213

Pass Yds

229

 

 

 

 

19-36-2

Passes

18-34-1

 

 

 

 

8-43.4

Punt

7-39.4

 

 

 

 

3-23

PR

6-47

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

7-48

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

3-2

 

 

 

 

83

Play

78

 

 

 

 

387

Tot Yds

388

 

 

 

Chick-Fil-a Bowl: #7 Texas Tech vs. #10 Ohio State

 

Final Score: Ohio State 45  Texas Tech 31

 

Terrelle Pryor ran for two scores and passed for two others and Marcus Freeman sacked Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell three times, as the Buckeyes beat higher-seeded Texas Tech.  Pryor scored his first touchdown on a 14 yard scamper early in the second quarter after Brian Hartline set the Buckeyes up with a 32 yard punt return.  Pryor’s first touchdown pass went to Hartline from 26 yards out.  In the third quarter, Pryor hit Brian Robiskie for a 13-yard score, and in the final period, Pryor scampered 17 yards for the game-clinching touchdown, after Texas Tech had scored on a blocked punt and return.

 

Ohio State now moves on to the Sugar Bowl for a date against #2 seed Florida.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Tx Tech

7

7

14

3

 

31

Oh St

3

14

14

14

 

45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TTU

Stat

OSU

 

 

 

 

18

FD

24

 

 

 

 

18-39

Rush-Yds

37-215

 

 

 

 

301

Pass Yds

177

 

 

 

 

27-56-3

Passes

16-26-0

 

 

 

 

4-41.5

Punt

4-34.4

 

 

 

 

1-7

PR

2-34

 

 

 

 

7-65

Pen

5-33

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

74

Play

63

 

 

 

 

340

Tot Yds

392

 

 

 

Outback Bowl: #8 Penn State vs. #9 Boise State

 

Final Score: Boise State 34  Penn State 23

 

Ian Johnson and Kyle Wilson starred for the Broncos in this mild upset.  Johnson gave BSU the quick lead when he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards for a touchdown.  Wilson’s 62 yard punt return following Penn State’s first possession set up another Bronco score.

 

Johnson rushed for 142 yards and a touchdown, while Wilson intercepted two second half passes.

 

Boise State advances to the Fiesta Bowl to take on top-seeded Oklahoma.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Penn St

6

7

0

10

 

23

Boise St

14

0

13

7

 

34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PSU

Stat

BSU

 

 

 

 

17

FD

23

 

 

 

 

37-155

Rush-Yds

44-189

 

 

 

 

171

Pass Yds

226

 

 

 

 

16-29-3

Passes

19-28-0

 

 

 

 

7-42.7

Punt

5-41.6

 

 

 

 

3-20

PR

5-43

 

 

 

 

6-50

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

3-2

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

66

Play

72

 

 

 

 

326

Tot Yds

415

 

 

 

Quarterfinal Round Matches

To Be Simulated December 20

 

Fiesta Bowl

#1 Oklahoma 12-1 vs. #9 Boise State 13-0

 

Sugar Bowl

#2 Florida 12-1 vs. #10 Ohio State 11-2

 

Capital One Bowl

#3 Texas 11-1 vs. #6 Utah 13-0

 

Gator Bowl

#4 Alabama 12-1 vs. #5 Southern Cal 12-1

December 31, 2007

NCAA Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–Championship Game

 

The NCAA Computer Simulated National Championship Playoff Final

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Southern California Trojans

Simulated date: January 12, 2008

How They Got Here

Oklahoma                                                       

Defeated Florida 50-48 in 3ot in the Fiesta Bowl

Defeated Ohio State 27-20 in the Sugar Bowl

Southern Cal

Defeated LSU 45-24 in the Cotton Bowl

Defeated Arizona State 35-17 in the Orange Bowl

FINAL SCORE: Southern Cal 38  Oklahoma 24

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

 

Total

Southern California

3

7

14

14

 

38

Oklahoma

7

10

7

0

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

Scoring Summary

USC: David Buehler 41 yd. FG 1st qtr. 9:33  USC 3 OU 0

OKL: Chris Brown 74 yd. run, Hartley Kick 1st qtr. 9:15 OU 7 USC 3

OKL: Malcolm Kelly 5 yd. pass from Bradford, Hartley Kick 2nd qtr. 10:09  OU 14 USC 3

USC: Fred Davis 42 yd. pass from Booty, Buehler Kick 2nd qtr. 4:01  OU 14 USC 10

OKL: Garrett Hartley 44 yd. FG 2nd qtr. 0:00  OU 17 USC 10

OKL: Chris Brown 12 yd. run, Harltey Kick 3rd qtr. 11:03 OU 24 USC 10

USC: Ronald Johnson 99 yd Kick Return, Buehler Kick 3rd qtr. 10:50  OU 24 USC 17

USC: Clay Matthews 29 yd. block punt return, Buehler Kick 3rd qtr. 7:49  USC 24 OU 24

USC: Chauncey Washington 4 yd. run, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 8:59  USC 31 OU 24

USC: Terrell Thomas 67 yd. interception return, Buehler Kick 4th qtr. 4:12 USC 38 OU 24

Team Statistics

Stat

USC

OKL

FD

18

23

Rushing

39-157

33-96

Passing

258

318

Passes

16-27-0

27-46-2

Sacks-Yds

0-0

4-21

Fum-Lst

0-0

1-0

Punting

6-41.7

6-33.3

Punt Ret.

4-11.3

3-5.0

Kick Ret.

5-35.6

7-19.4

Penalties

6-50

7-55

T O P

26:12

33:48

Individual Stats

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing

Att

Yds

Long

TD

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Chauncey Washington

19

92

17

1

 

Stafon Johnson

13

46

11

0

 

Joe McKnight

5

19

6

0

 

John David Booty

2

0

2

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Brown

20

109

74

2

 

Allen Patrick

7

10

5

0

 

Sam Bradford

5

-11

10

0

 

Manuel Johnson

1

-12

-12

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passing

Comp

Att

Int

Yds

TD

USC

 

 

 

 

 

John David Booty

15

26

0

227

1

Desmond Reed

1

1

0

31

0

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Sam Bradford

27

46

2

318

1

 

 

 

 

 

Receiving

Rec

Yds

LG

TD

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Fred Davis

5

117

42

1

 

Patrick Turner

7

90

19

0

 

Desmond Reed

1

24

24

0

 

Vidal Hazleton

2

21

13

0

 

Stanley Havili

1

6

6

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Manuel Johnson

11

137

25

0

 

Malcolm Kelly

6

80

21

1

 

Chris Brown

4

51

19

0

 

Juaquin Iglesias

4

38

12

0

 

Allen Patrick

2

12

9

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leading Defensive Players

 

 

 

 

USC

 

 

 

 

 

Lawrence Jackson

13 tackles, 2 TFL, 3 sacks

 

Terrell Thomas

4 tackles, 1 Int. for TD

 

Clay Matthews

bk punt and return for TD

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

 

Curtis Lofton

7 tackles, 1 TFL

 

D.J. Wolfe

5 tackles, 1 PBU

 

Lendy Holmes

5 tackles 

 

Player of the Game: Lawrence Jackson

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