The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 7, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Round One

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The Opening Round of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off with the top four seeds receiving byes.

 

Without further adieu, let’s reveal the results.

 

#12 Seed: Louisville (10-2) at #5 Seed: Oregon (11-1)

Oregon 45  Louisville 17

 

Oregon

Team

Louisville

45

Score

17

23

First Downs

18

42

Rush Attempts

37

223

Rush Yards

104

18

Pass Completions

18

29

Pass Attempts

32

209

Pass Yards

191

0

Intercepted

1

3-43.7

Punt Average

6-41.5

2-41

Punt Returns

0-0

4-92

Kick Returns

5-93

5-40

Penalties

7-57

0-0

Fumbles/Lost

2-0

2-11

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

71

Plays

69

432

Total Yards

295

 

#11 Seed: Florida State (11-2) at #6 Seed: Kansas State (11-1)

Kansas State 27  Florida State 16

 

Kansas St.

Team

Florida St.

27

Score

16

18

First Downs

17

47

Rush Attempts

34

202

Rush Yards

119

10

Pass Completions

22

22

Pass Attempts

38

147

Pass Yards

236

1

Intercepted

2

5-43.4

Punt Average

5-39.8

1-(-3)

Punt Returns

3-14

3-61

Kick Returns

2-38

6-55

Penalties

7-46

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

2-13

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

69

Plays

72

349

Total Yards

355

 

 

#10 Seed: Texas A&M (10-2) at #7 Seed: Georgia (11-2)

Georgia 33  Texas A&M 31

 

Georgia

Team

Texas A&M

33

Score

31

22

First Downs

23

36

Rush Attempts

41

137

Rush Yards

180

20

Pass Completions

29

34

Pass Attempts

45

242

Pass Yards

313

1

Intercepted

1

3-41.3

Punt Average

2-45.0

0-0

Punt Returns

0-0

6-199

Kick Returns

1-21

5-35

Penalties

8-72

0-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

1-12

Def: Sack-Yds

2-11

70

Plays

86

379

Total Yards

493

 

#9 Seed: Stanford (11-2) at #8 Seed LSU (10-2)

Stanford 28  LSU 20

 

L S U

Team

Stanford

20

Score

28

16

First Downs

20

42

Rush Attempts

39

151

Rush Yards

172

16

Pass Completions

17

29

Pass Attempts

28

156

Pass Yards

183

2

Intercepted

0

6-45.7

Punt Average

5-41.6

2-6

Punt Returns

3-37

3-59

Kick Returns

2-47

6-50

Penalties

8-56

2-1

Fumbles/Lost

1-0

1-7

Def: Sack-Yds

2-15

71

Plays

67

307

Total Yards

355

 

Round Two is now set.  Our Elite Eight Games Include:

 

#9 Seed: Stanford (12-2) at #1 Seed: Notre Dame (12-0)

#7 Seed: Georgia (12-2) at #2 Seed: Alabama (12-1)

#6 Seed: Kansas St. (12-1) at #3 Seed: Ohio State (12-0)

#5 Seed: Oregon (12-1) at #4 Seed: Florida (11-1)

 

These games will be simulated and revealed next Friday, December 14, 2012 before 4 PM Eastern Standard Time.

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December 3, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Bracket Reveal

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

Yes, a playoff is coming to college football in two more years, but as far as we are concerned, the NCAA still had not gotten it right.  A four-team playoff this year would have included Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, and Oregon.  Kansas State would have been left out, and that would be a travesty.

Imagine the NFL leaving out the San Francisco 49ers from the playoffs this year.  It would be an outrage and would lessen the NFL as a brand.

There’s a reason the Super Bowl is what it is:  It is a legitimate playoff where all division champions are included.

The NCAA will never approach the success of the NFL while there is a chance that an 11-1 Kansas State team would not be included as Big 12 Champions.  No poll or computer rating, ours included, can really select Alabama, Florida, or Oregon as a better team than Kansas State, and thus this new four-team playoff that will commence in 2014 is a joke without merit.

Schedule strength can never determine which teams are better and more deserving than others.  It does not determine which teams are the best.  Winning a conference championship does accomplish that.

For instance, what if the Houston Texans roster played as the collegiate Houston Cougars?  Let’s say, the “Texans” played the same schedule this season as the “Cougars” and easily ran the table with a 13-0 mark, destroying the likes of Texas State, Louisiana Tech, UCLA, Rice, North Texas, UAB, SMU, UTEP, East Carolina, Tulsa, Marshall, and Tulane, before knocking off Central Florida in the Conference USA Championship Game.

Let’s say with this 13-0 record, Houston moved up to number nine in the BCS rankings.  In the current BCS season, they would have been rewarded with the Orange Bowl bid that went to Northern Illinois.  After thoroughly destroying Florida State to finish 14-0, they might have moved up to sixth or fifth.  We are supposed to believe that four or five college teams are still better than the most talented roster in the NFL.

Under the future playoff rules, the 13-0 Cougars/Texans would not even have a chance of playing in the playoffs.  That’s correct, the top team in the NFL would be deemed unworthy of playing for the collegiate national championship.

How to rectify this is very simple.  First, the champions of the current top six conferences must receive automatic playoff spots, just like the eight divisional champions of the NFL.  Then, six more at-large teams need to be included to guarantee that a 13-0 Houston Cougars team with the Houston Texans roster would be included.

Okay, so you say that our supposition is a big joke?  Sure, the top NFL team would never put on college jerseys and play.  However, how can you tell that a 13-0 Houston Cougars team may or may not be a better team than a 11-1 Florida Gators team?  If Florida played Houston’s schedule, they could do no better than 13-0.

This is where our PiRate Playoff system corrects these terrible misdeeds.

This is our sixth year simulating playoffs.  Here is how it works:

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.  In our world, teams on probation are eligible for our playoffs.  We want the best teams from each conference.  We believe that not allowing teams to appear in the postseason after they played an entire season is ridiculous.  Only the players and fans are punished.  Instead, probation should be monetary only.  Thus, Ohio State is eligible for our playoffs.

After the top six conference champions are selected, we next take any conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS poll also receives an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are added based on BCS rating until 12 total teams have been selected.

Just like the NFL, our simulated college playoffs are played at the home field of the higher-seeded team until the Championship Game, The Simper Bowl, which is played at a neutral site.  In past years, we have chosen the Los Angeles Coliseum, but we have chosen a new location this year—Metlife Stadium in Metro New Jersey.  If a Super Bowl can be played outdoors in East Rutherford, then we can stage a college championship game there as well.

Each game in our simulated playoffs will be simulated just one time this year.  By simulating games 100 times, there is very little chance for upsets, and in real playoffs, teams only square off once.  So, if a team that might win 12 times out of 100 happens to win that lone simulation, it is the same as an upset in the NFL playoffs, and why the NFL is the king of all sports.

About the simulator:  We have access to a computer simulator on a large college campus.  It has been used to predict winners against the spread in the past, but at the present time, nobody is using it for that purpose.  A large string of statistical data is fed into the simulator, and it spits out winners of simulated games along with total statistics.

In the past, the simulator produced individual statistics and even a basic play-by-play, such as: “Smith 3 yard gain up the middle/Tackle Jones and Brown.”  Unfortunately, we only have access to total statistics this year.

What do we think about the 35 bowls with 70 teams, including schools that are 6-6 or even 6-7?  We could not care less about these games.  It might be a big deal for Central Michigan and Western Kentucky to play in a bowl, but we aren’t going to give it a moment’s notice.  In fact, only the box score with stats means anything to us, and then only because we have to calculate new ratings for the final ratings.

Even games such as Clemson and LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and Oregon and Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl mean nothing.  They cannot affect the national championship.  At least in the old days, it was possible for as many as five bowl games to play a part in the National Championship.

We like to use the 1970-71 bowl season as an example.  Entering the bowls, Texas was 10-0, Ohio State was 9-0, Nebraska was 10-0-1, and Arizona State was 11-0.  Additionally, Toledo and Dartmouth were undefeated in a year in which the Rockets and Big Green were actually good enough to beat a top ten team, with squads that were probably the best ever from the MAC and Ivy League.  Tennessee and Notre Dame both had just one loss, with the Vols losing only to Top Ten team Auburn with Pat Sullivan throwing to Terry Beasley.  The Irish were undefeated until losing their final game against Southern Cal in the Coliseum in LA.

Toledo was limited to the Tangerine Bowl as MAC Champion, and the Rockets destroyed William & Mary by four touchdowns.  It wasn’t enough to put them in the title picture, but it led to a Top 10 finish in some polls.

Arizona State played North Carolina in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta and won by more than three touchdowns to finish 11-0.  However, the Sun Devils were in the WAC then, and their schedule was not quite as tough as others in contention.  They did beat a 6-5 Kansas State team by 22 point, but Nebraska beat the Wildcats by 38.

New Year’s Day started with the Sugar Bowl on ABC and the Cotton Bowl on CBS, both kicking off at roughly the same time.  In the Cotton Bowl, number one Texas was facing off against #4 Notre Dame.  The Longhorns had defeated the Irish the year before in the Cotton Bowl to win the national title.  However, Coach Ara Parseghian devised an entirely new defense aimed at stopping the powerful wishbone offense run by Texas.  They held the Longhorns more than 30 points under their scoring average, while quarterback Joe Theismann passed the Irish to a convincing 13-point win.  Number one was up for grabs now.

Over on ABC, Tennessee was thoroughly destroying a 9-2 Air Force team in the Sugar Bowl.  That Air Force team had clobbered Pac-8 champ Stanford earlier in the season.  Now, the Vols and Irish had won as one-loss teams.  All eyes shifted west to Pasadena.

In the Rose Bowl on NBC, Curt Gowdy explained to the nation that Ohio State would lock up the national title with a victory over 8-3 Stanford.  The undefeated Buckeyes were a senior-laden team with enough stars to start an NFL expansion franchise.  Those seniors had been 27-1 to this point in their careers.  But, Stanford had the big equalizer.  Heisman Trophy winner Jim Plunkett and end Randy Vataha was the best passing combo in the nation, just a fraction ahead of Sullivan and Beasley.  Ohio State’s three yards and a cloud of dust offense began the game looking invincible, but then Stanford’s defense brought a rover back up to the middle to plug the off-tackle holes.  Plunkett began firing rifle shots against a Buckeye secondary that had not faced a passing team all season.  All of a sudden, the cinch national title was gone, and Stanford won by 10 points.

Now, the nation turned to Miami and the Orange Bowl on NBC.  Nebraska was 10-0-1, but the Cornhuskers were a slight underdog to 9-2 LSU, a team that had lost to Notre Dame 3-0.  The game was a defensive struggle all night, and LSU led for three quarters.  With 15 minutes to go in the game, it looked like several teams might split the title.  Nebraska had one good fourth quarter drive to take the lead, and the “Huskers held on to win a nailbiter 17-12.

All told, the Peach, Sugar, Cotton, Rose, and Orange Bowls played a part in the title that season.  Nebraska eventually won all of the postseason versions of the “legitimate” national championships of that day.  All four New Year’s Day Bowls were essential games to watch.

In other years, as many as five different teams claimed national championships in the same year.  It may not have been ideal, but at least teams that deserved to be considered in the national championship equation received recognition.  For instance, in 1973, Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and Oklahoma all received recognition from at least one “officially recognized” polling service as national champion.  Additionally, there were three major mathematical ratings (pre-computer) that were considered legitimate enough to award a national champion.  The Carr Ratings, Litkenhous Ratings, and Dunkel Ratings crowned a national champion every year.

This cannot happen today.  Yes, the AP still crowns a recognized national champion and has awarded one to a team that did not win the BCS Championship Game (and could theoretically move 12-0 Ohio State to number one if Notre Dame loses to Alabama), but it does not come close to matching the bowls of yesteryear.

It is our opinion that the old way with multiple champions was better than the current BCS.  It made the four big New Year’s Day bowls must-see television events.

The new four-team playoff misses the mark and will cause the same troubles.  It would not have worked this year, and if Ohio State had been eligible, it would have meant that both Oregon and Kansas State would have been left out in favor of Alabama and Florida.

The only way to crown one legitimate champion is to give every top team a chance to play for it on the football field, and until the NCAA copies the NFL and institutes a playoff that gives the big conference champions an automatic bid and gives the smaller conference champions a chance to get into the playoffs, then any championship awarded is bogus.

With that in mind, the PiRate Ratings release its “Dandy Dozen” for 2012-13 and the pairings for the PiRate simulated playoffs.  The Road to Simper Bowl VI begins today.

Automatic Bids

Atlantic Coast Conference: Florida State 11-2

Big East Conference: Louisville 10-2

Big Ten Conference: Ohio State 12-0 (See above for why Ohio State is here and not Wisconsin)

Big 12 Conference: Kansas State 11-1

Pacific-12 Conference: Stanford 11-2

Southeastern Conference: Alabama 12-1

 

Other Conference Champions in BCS Top 12

No Teams Qualified (Northern Illinois did not qualify in our playoffs)

At-Large Selections (Selected in order of BCS Ranking)

Notre Dame 12-0

Florida 11-1

Oregon 11-1

Georgia 11-2

L S U 10-2

Texas A&M 10-2

 

Here are how our “Dandy Dozen” are seeded.  The top four teams receive first-round byes, while numbers 5 through 12 play in to the Final Eight, just like the NFL Playoffs.

  1. Notre Dame

  2. Alabama

  3. Ohio State (based on where they would have been if not on probation).

  4. Florida

  5. Oregon

  6. Kansas State

  7. Georgia

  8. L S U

  9. Stanford

10. Texas A&M

11. Florida State

12. Louisville

 

The opening round of the PiRate Simulated Playoffs begin this Friday, December 7, 2012.  Check back Friday after 1PM Eastern Standard Time for the results and statistics.

Here are the matchups

8 at L S U
————————-
|
|————————
9 Stanford | |
————————- |————————
1 at Notre Dame | |
————————- |
|
|
5 at Oregon |————————
————————- | |
| | |
|———————— | |
12 Louisville | | | |
 ———————— |———————— |
4 at Florida | |
————————- |
|Championship Game
|—————————-
7 at Georgia |At Met Life Stadium
————————- |
| |
|———————— |
10 Texas A&M | | |
————————- |———————— |
2 at Alabama | | |
————————- | |
| |
| |
6 at Kansas State |————————
————————- |
| |
|———————— |
11 Florida State | | |
————————- |————————
3 at Ohio State |
————————-

January 6, 2012

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Simper Bowl V

Simper Bowl V

The championship round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday morning, January 6, 2012, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC received automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finished in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules were applied, at-large invitations were extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gave the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 played in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Were:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

 

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

 

The Final Four Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

 

Simper Bowl Facts

The Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers actually played in this year’s Rose Bowl, and the Simper Bowl takes place in the same vicinity at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marked the second time in Simper Bowl history that the computer simulated National Championship Game featured teams that actually squared off in a bowl.

 

We went ahead and simulated this game 100 times after we simulated it the one time to represent the Simper Bowl.  The winner of the Simper Bowl only won 37 of the 100 simulations performed after the Simper Bowl, so we would call the winner of this game an upset.

 

And, the 2011-12 Simper Bowl Champions Are: THE OREGON DUCKS!

 

Congratulations to the Ducks, as they defeated Wisconsin 38-30 in the lone simulation prior to the 100 sims performed afterwards.  Wisconsin won 63 of the 100 simulations performed after we recorded the results of the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the Simper Bowl Stats:

 

Ore

Team

Wis

 

 

 

20

FD

23

 

 

 

35-206

Rush

41-209

 

 

 

271

Passing

257

 

 

 

17-29-0

Passes

22-33-1

 

 

 

64

Plays

74

 

 

 

477

Tot Yds

466

 

 

 

4-92

KR

6-132

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-0

 

 

 

1-13

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

6-47

Pen

8-58

 

 

 

2-43.5

Punt

3-46.7

 

 

 

27:12

Time

32:48

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ore

10

14

7

7

38

Wis

3

10

10

7

30

Rushing Leaders

Oregon: James 21-135 and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Ball 25-143 and one touchdown
 

Passing Leaders

Oregon: Thomas 17-29-0 271 yards and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Wilson 22-33-1 257 yards and one touchdown
 

Receiving Leader

Oregon: Tuinei 6-118 and one touchdown
Wisconsin: White 3-90 and one touchdown

 

On Monday morning, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

January 1, 2012

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl V

The semifinal round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 30, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

 

The Final Four

Oregon at LSU

Wisconsin at Oklahoma State

 

The Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

 

LSU

Team

Ore

 

 

 

19

FD

20

 

 

 

45-166

Rush

49-260

 

 

 

179

Passing

181

 

 

 

16-28-2

Passes

10-17-0

 

 

 

73

Plays

66

 

 

 

345

Tot Yds

441

 

 

 

5-116

KR

4-107

 

 

 

1-34

PR

3-23

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

2-76

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-0

 

 

 

7-57

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

5-42.6

Punt

3-29.3

 

 

 

32:11

Time

27:49

 

 

 

1-4

Sacks

3-22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

LSU

7

3

10

14

34

Ore

15

14

7

3

39

Summary

The Ducks Struck early when LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson’s
first pass was batted at the line of scrimmage and intercepted by
Oregon linebacker Josh Kaddu and returned for a touchdown.
LaMichael James broke loose for a 53-yard touchdown run to give
the Ducks a 15-0 lead 10 minutes into the game.
After Jefferson was benched in the third quarter following his
second interception of the game, Jarrett Lee brought LSU back
within striking distance, but a final drive was squashed at the OU
19-yard line when Lee’s pass to the end zone was batted away by
John Boyett.
James rushed for 143 yards and quarterback Darron Thomas
rushed for one score and passed for two others.

 

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

 

OSU

Team

Wis

 

 

 

26

FD

22

 

 

 

34-156

Rush

45-261

 

 

 

254

Passing

232

 

 

 

24-41-1

Passes

19-26-0

 

 

 

75

Plays

71

 

 

 

410

Tot Yds

493

 

 

 

4-83

KR

5-106

 

 

 

3-19

PR

2-22

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

1-13

 

 

 

2-1

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

11-100

Pen

3-20

 

 

 

4-40.0

Punt

4-41.8

 

 

 

28:47

Time

31:13

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

4-25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

OSU

10

14

14

0

38

Wis

6

6

21

8

41

Summary

Wisconsin rallied from a 38-19 deficit with three touchdowns in the
last 21 minutes of the game.  Russell Wilson ran 32 yards for the
first of these scores.  Then, the Badgers recovered an onside kick
and relied on a trick play to score.  Montee Ball threw a halfback
pass to Nick Toon for 48 yards and a touchdown.
UW completed the comeback with a 14-play, 82-yard touchdown
drive culminated by James White’s three-yard plunge.
The drive ate more than seven minutes off the clock leaving
Oklahoma State just 1:18 to try to get into field goal range.
Brandon Weeden completed three passes for 46 yards, but Quinn
Sharp’s 51-yard FG attempt on the final play was short.

 

Championship Game Set

Join us Friday afternoon, January 6, 2012, for Simper Bowl V, as the Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers face off at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marks the second time that the computer simulated National Championship Game has featured teams actually squaring off in a bowl.

 

On Monday, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

December 27, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl V

The quarterfinal round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 23, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

Today’s Elite 8 Matchups

#8 Kansas State 11-2 at #1 L S U 13-0

#5 Oregon 12-2 at #4 Stanford 11-1

#10 Wisconsin 12-2 at #2 Alabama 11-1

#11 Clemson 11-3 at #3 Oklahoma State 11-1

 

Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

 

LSU

Team

KSU

 

 

 

21

FD

12

 

 

 

44-251

Rush

29-83

 

 

 

153

Passing

235

 

 

 

11-19-0

Passes

18-42-2

 

 

 

63

Plays

71

 

 

 

404

Tot Yds

318

 

 

 

1-42

KR

6-118

 

 

 

5-42

PR

2-1

 

 

 

2-34

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

0-0

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

6-38

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

3-42.3

Punt

7-41.6

 

 

 

30:34

Time

29:26

 

 

 

3-19

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

LSU

3

24

14

3

44

KSU

0

0

0

16

16

Summary

LSU broke open a tight game in the second quarter starting with
a 31 yard interception return for touchdown by Tyrann Mathieu.
 
Following a three-and-out by Kansas State, the Tigers ensuing drive was a nine-play, 68-yard touchdown march culminated by QB Jordan Jefferson’s six yard scamper around left end.
 
Kansas State did not get on the scoreboard until they trailed 41-0
with 9:32 left to play in the game.

 

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

 

Stan

Team

Ore

 

 

 

23

FD

28

 

 

 

26-99

Rush

42-213

 

 

 

311

Passing

223

 

 

 

26-45-2

Passes

18-26-1

 

 

 

71

Plays

68

 

 

 

410

Tot Yds

436

 

 

 

4-87

KR

4-102

 

 

 

2-11

PR

0-0

 

 

 

1-11

Int Ret

2-31

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-0

 

 

 

7-52

Pen

6-43

 

 

 

4-39.8

Punt

2-41.0

 

 

 

27:51

Time

32:09

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Stan

10

10

0

7

27

Ore

7

14

10

7

38

Summary

Oregon broke open a tight game in the 3rd qtr with a 12-play,
80-yard drive that consumed over seven minutes off the clock.
Darron Thomas completed a 12-yard pass to Lavasier Tuinei for
the touchdown.
 
Following a LaMichael James 46-yard run to the Cardinal 11 yard
line, Alejandro Maldonado kicked a 26-yard field goal to put the
Ducks up by 11 points.  Both teams scored a TD in the final quarter.
 
Andrew Luck completed a 41-yard pass for a score to Coby
Fleener, while James sprinted 16 yards for the game-clincher.
James led all players with 176 yards rushing.

 

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Ala

Team

Wis

 

 

 

14

FD

19

 

 

 

38-134

Rush

52-213

 

 

 

187

Passing

171

 

 

 

19-32-1

Passes

15-22-0

 

 

 

70

Plays

74

 

 

 

321

Tot Yds

384

 

 

 

3-62

KR

2-41

 

 

 

5-19

PR

2-17

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

1-0

 

 

 

3-2

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

9-62

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

7-39.4

Punt

6-41.5

 

 

 

26:48

Time

33:12

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ala

0

6

6

7

19

Wis

7

3

7

7

24

Summary

The Badgers pulled off the first major upset of the tournament, and they did so by playing old-style football better than the favored Crimson Tide.
 
On the first possession of the game, UW drove 77 yards on 14 plays, using almost eight minutes of the clock.  The Badgers ran the ball 12 times for 58 yards and passed twice for 19 to gain a lead they kept for the duration of the game.
 
Montee Ball rushed for 152 yards on 31 carries, many times gaining a first down in crucial moments.  In the fourth quarter, with UW leading 17-12, the Badgers were backed up at their own 10 yard line facing a 3rd and 6.  Ball broke two tackles to pick up
the first down, and UW drove to midfield before punting to the ‘Bama 7.  The defense forced the Tide to punt from the 3, and it gave UW excellent field possession at the Tide 38.  Russell Wilson completed a TD pass to Nick Toon to sew up the victory.

 

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

OSU

Team

Clem

 

 

 

31

FD

16

 

 

 

31-156

Rush

31-119

 

 

 

433

Passing

104

 

 

 

29-43-0

Passes

11-26-1

 

 

 

74

Plays

57

 

 

 

589

Tot Yds

223

 

 

 

2-39

KR

7-229

 

 

 

5-44

PR

0-0

 

 

 

1-(-2)

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

7-55

 

 

 

1-46.0

Punt

6-40.3

 

 

 

36:19

Time

23:41

 

 

 

3-20

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

OSU

23

14

7

0

44

Clem

0

14

0

6

20

Summary

This game was never in doubt, starting with the first play from
scrimmage.  Cowboy QB Brandon Weeden tossed a quick screen
pass to Joseph Randle, who ran 74 yards for a touchdown.
Moment later, a Clemson punt attempt was blocked through the
end zone for a safety, and after the ensuing free kick, Oklahoma
State drove 62 yards for their second touchdown, culminated by
Weeden’s 23 yard pass to Justin Blackmon to give OSU a 16-0 lead just five minutes into the game.
 
Clemson did not score until they trailed 30-0, when Sammy Watkins returned a kick 97 yards for a touchdown.
 
Randle led all rushers with 128 yards on 18 carries.  The
Cowboys held Andre Ellington to 67 rushing yards.

 

The Final Four Is Set

Oregon ventures to Baton Rouge to face L S U for the second time this season, while Wisconsin travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State in the other semifinal game.  The winners of these games will advance to the Simper Bowl at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

 

Check back New Year’s Eve for the results of those two simulations.

December 12, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Opening Round

The Road To Simper Bowl V

The opening round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 9, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

Here Is This Year’s Bracket

Opening Round  12/10/11 Quarterfinals  12/24/11 Semifinals 12/31/11 Championship 1/7/12 Legitimate Champion
         
#9 South Carolina 10-2        
  |      
  |      
  | |    
@ #8 Kansas St. 10-2 | |    
    | |  
  @ #1 L S U 13-0 | |  
      |  
      |  
      |  
#12 West Virginia 9-3     | |
  |   | |
  |   | |
  | | | |
@ #5 Oregon 11-2 | | | |
    |   |
  @ #4 Stanford 11-1 |   |
        |
        |
      @ L.A. Coliseum |
#10 Wisconsin 11-2       |
  |     |
  |     |
  | |   |
@ #7 Boise St. 11-1 | |   |
    | | |
  @ #2 Alabama 11-1 | | |
      | |
      | |
      | |
# 11 Clemson 10-3     |  
  |   |  
  |   |  
  | | |  
@ #6 Arkansas 10-2 | | |  
    |    
  @ #3 Oklahoma St. 11-1 |    

 

 

Opening Round Results

#9 South Carolina 10-2 at #8 Kansas St. 10-2

Final Score: Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

 

Kan St

Team

S Car

 

 

 

21

FD

16

 

 

 

48-196

Rush

38-148

 

 

 

175

Passing

142

 

 

 

12-21-0

Passes

13-25-1

 

 

 

69

Plays

63

 

 

 

371

Tot Yds

290

 

 

 

3-138

KR

5-106

 

 

 

3-27

PR

2-8

 

 

 

1-12

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

7-56

Pen

6-50

 

 

 

5-42.4

Punt

7-41.7

 

 

 

31:47

Time

28:13

 

 

 

2-12

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Kan St

6

14

10

0

30

S Car

0

7

7

6

20

Scoring

 KS:1st Qtr–9:42: Cantele 39 yd FG

KS: 1st Qtr–3:11: Cantele 42 yd FG

SC: 2nd Qtr– 10:26: Shaw 1 yd. run, Wooten Kick

KS: 2nd Qtr–10:09: Lockett 98 yd. Kick Return, Cantele Kick

KS: 2nd Qtr–0:48 Harper 39 yd. pass from Klein, Cantele Kick

SC: 3rd Qtr–11:51 Wilds 8 yd. run, Wooten Kick

KS: 3rd Qtr–6:08: Cantele 37 yd FG

KS: 3rd Qtr–1:19: Hubert 4 yd. run, Cantele Kick

SC: 4th Qtr–5:37: Jeffrey 41 yd. pass from Shaw, 2-pt try failed

 

#12 West Virginia at #5 Oregon

Final Score: Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

 

Ore

Team

WVU

 

 

 

24

FD

17

 

 

 

45-234

Rush

21-69

 

 

 

254

Passing

237

 

 

 

19-27-0

Passes

22-43-2

 

 

 

72

Plays

64

 

 

 

488

Tot Yds

306

 

 

 

3-67

KR

5-93

 

 

 

3-29

PR

0-0

 

 

 

2-16

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

6-42

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

2-42.5

Punt

7-39.4

 

 

 

33:08

Time

26:52

 

 

 

4-32

Sacks

1-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ore

22

9

3

7

41

WVU

0

7

10

0

17

Scoring

Ore: 1st Qtr–10:39: Barner 7 yd. run, James run for 2

Ore: 1st Qtr–7:28: James 21 yd. run, Maldonado Kick

Ore: 1st Qtr–2:19: Tuinei 14 yd. pass from Thomas, Maldonado Kick

Ore: 2nd Qtr–13:32: WVU holding in end zone

Ore: 2nd Qtr–5:51: Thomas 2 yd. run, Maldonato Kick

WVU: 2nd Qtr–1:04: Bailey 7 yd. pass from Smith, Bitancurt Kick

WVU: 3rd Qtr–12:06: Alstun 3 yd. run, Bitancurt Kick

WVU: 3rd Qtr–6:42: Bitancurt 40 yd. FG

Ore: 3rd Qtr–2:23: Maldonado 38 yd. FG

Ore: 4th Qtr–7:04: Tuinei 23 yd. pass from Thomas, Maldonado Kick

 

#10 Wisconsin at #7 Boise State

Final Score: Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

 

BSU

Team

Wis

 

 

 

21

FD

26

 

 

 

29-98

Rush

49-256

 

 

 

257

Passing

194

 

 

 

19-35-1

Passes

15-22-0

 

 

 

64

Plays

71

 

 

 

355

Tot Yds

450

 

 

 

6-128

KR

5-117

 

 

 

2-17

PR

3-61

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

1-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

7-54

Pen

6-35

 

 

 

4-39.8

Punt

5-42.6

 

 

 

26:41

Time

33:19

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

BSU

7

6

3

10

26

Wis

10

0

21

7

38

Scoring

BSU: 1st Qtr–11:27: Martin 2 yd. run, Frisina Kick

Wis: 1st Qtr–6:12 Welch 38 yd. FG

Wis: 1st Qtr–2:31: Abbrederis 24 yd. pass from Wilson, Welch Kick

BSU: 2nd Qtr–7:31: Frisina 42 yd. FG

BSU: 2nd Qtr–0:00: Frisina 41 yd. FG

Wis: 3rd Qtr–12:52: Ball 19 yd. run, Welch Kick

Wis: 3rd Qtr–6:29: Ball 4 yd. run, Welch Kick

BSU: 3rd Qtr–4:11: Frisina 37 yd. FG

Wis: Ball 5 yd. run, Welch Kick

BSU: 4th Qtr–10:55: Shoemaker 20 yd. pass from Moore, Frisina Kick

BSU: 4th Qtr–5:48: Frisina 35 yd. FG

Wis: 4th Qtr–3:26: White 8 yd. run, Welch Kick

 

#11 Clemson at #6 Arkansas

Final Score: Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

 

Ark

Team

Clem

 

 

 

 

 

 

33

FD

26

 

 

 

 

 

 

40-168

Rush

36-165

 

 

 

 

 

 

316

Passing

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

28-48-2

Passes

19-34-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

88

Plays

70

 

 

 

 

 

 

484

Tot Yds

472

 

 

 

 

 

 

4-78

KR

6-149

 

 

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

3-41

 

 

 

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

2-77

 

 

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

9-73

Pen

6-44

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-41.0

Punt

3-40.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

35:11

Time

24:49

 

 

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

3-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

OT

OT

Final

Ark

14

7

10

3

7

3

0

44

Clem

7

21

3

3

7

3

6

50

Scoring

Ark: 1st Qtr–10:44: Wright 11 yd. pass from Wilson, Hocker Kick

Ark: 1st Qtr–5:56: Wright 9 yd. pass from Wilson, Hocker Kick

Clem: 1st Qtr–1:12: Ellington 7 yd. run, Catanzaro Kick

Ark: 2nd Qtr–11:32: Green 1 yd. run, Hocker Kick

Clem: 2nd Qtr–8:44: Ellington 6 yd. run, Catanzaro Kick

Clem: 2nd Qtr–6:29: Christian 48 yd. Int. Return, Catanzaro Kick

Clem: 2nd Qtr–1:14: Watkins 48 yd. pass from Boyd, Catanzaro Kick

Ark: 3rd Qtr–9:13: Mitchell 1 yd. run, Hocker Kick

Clem: 3rd Qtr–5:44: Catanzaro 44 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 3rd Qtr–0:06: Hocker 39 yd. Field Goal

Clem: 4th Qtr–4:59: Catanzaro 40 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 4th Qtr–0:08 Hocker 48 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 1st OT: Green 2 yd. run, Hocker Kick

Clem: 1st OT: Ellington 14 yd. run, Catanzaro Kick

Clem: 2nd OT: Catanzaro 35 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 2nd OT: Hocker 42 yd. Field Goal

Clem: 3rd OT: Ellington 9 yd. run, no PAT attempted

 

The Updated Bracket

 

Opening Round  12/10/11 Quarterfinals  12/24/11 Semifinals 12/31/11 Championship 1/7/12 Legitimate Champion
         
#9 South Carolina 10-2        
  |      
  | Kansas State 30-20      
  | |    
@ #8 Kansas St. 10-2 | |    
    | |  
  @ #1 L S U 13-0 | |  
      |  
      |  
      |  
#12 West Virginia 9-3     | |
  |   | |
  | Oregon 41-17   | |
  | | | |
@ #5 Oregon 11-2 | | | |
    |   |
  @ #4 Stanford 11-1 |   |
        |
        |
      @ L.A. Coliseum |
#10 Wisconsin 11-2       |
  |     |
  | Wisconsin 38-26     |
  | |   |
@ #7 Boise St. 11-1 | |   |
    | | |
  @ #2 Alabama 11-1 | | |
      | |
      | |
      | |
# 11 Clemson 10-3     |  
  |   |  
  | Clemson 50-44 3ot   |  
  | | |  
@ #6 Arkansas 10-2 | | |  
    |    
  @ #3 Oklahoma St. 11-1 |    
         

Elite 8 Matchups

#8 Kansas State 11-2 at #1 L S U 13-0

#5 Oregon 12-2 at #4 Stanford 11-1

#10 Wisconsin 12-2 at #2 Alabama 11-1

#11 Clemson 11-3 at #3 Oklahoma State 11-1

 

Happy Holidays to All and to All A Good Playoff Sim.

December 5, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Bracket Reveal

Filed under: 2011 Simulated NCAA Playoffs — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:39 pm

The Dandy Dozen For 2011-12

Welcome to the 2011-12 college football simulated playoffs.  If you despise the ridiculous bowl system where a 6-7 UCLA team gets to play a 14th game, while a 7-5 Western Kentucky team does not get a bowl bid, because some greedy corporation can squeeze a little more money out of naïve fans, and if you despise the fact that Virginia Tech can lose to Clemson by four touchdowns and still earn a Sugar Bowl bid over TCU, Southern Mississippi, Kansas State, or Boise State, then this is the place for you.

 

This is our fifth year to provide this service.  We call the computer-simulated National Championship, “The Simper Bowl.”  It has annually been our most widely read features.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

We have made a couple of changes this year.  We wish to honor the excellent book written by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan “Death to the BCS.”   In this book, the authors believe a playoff should give home-field advantage to the higher-seeded team.  So, beginning this year, the first three rounds will be played on the home fields of the higher-seeded team.  Only the Simper Bowl will be played on a neutral field.  So as not to give any credence to the fake National Championship Game in New Orleans (the one in which Stanford and Oklahoma State get no chance to state their cases), we have chosen to play this year’s Simper Bowl at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, out of respect for the NFL-AFL’s first Super Bowl.  Thus, home field advantage will be factored into our computer simulator.

 

We are also going back to our old format, where we simulate each game just one time.  Last year, we simulated each game 100 times, but we realized our mistake.  Real games are played just once, and upsets occur when that happens.  When teams play 100 times, the better team is going to win more than 50 of those games.  So, this year’s simulation should be much more exciting with a higher standard deviation from the expected norm—at least we hope.

 

We have access to a university simulator in which a sports fanatic has implemented college and pro football data going back to 1960.  He originally attempted to predict the outcome of games against the spread, but he found out his simulator only works in predicting outright winners.  When simulated 1,000 times, his simulator predicts the winners with about 87% accuracy (but only 53% against the spread).

 

We will simulate each game only one time and then reveal the score and statistics.  We have not decided yet whether we will transcribe the play-by-play data for the Championship Game like we did last year when there were six contributors to this blog (there are just two this year, and one will be away from home for most of the holiday season).

 

The Dandy Dozen

Here are our 12 playoff teams for 2011-12:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Bracket

Opening Round  12/10/11 Quarterfinals  12/24/11 Semifinals 12/31/11 Championship 1/7/12 Legitimate Champion
         
#9 South Carolina 10-2        
  |      
  |_____________________      
  | |    
@ #8 Kansas St. 10-2 | |_________________    
    | |  
  @ #1 L S U 13-0 | |  
      |  
      |  
      |___________________  
#12 West Virginia 9-3     | |
  |   | |
  |_____________________   | |
  | | | |
@ #5 Oregon 11-2 | |_________________ | |
    |   |
  @ #4 Stanford 11-1 |   |
        |
        |
      @ L.A. Coliseum |_____________
#10 Wisconsin 11-2       |
  |     |
  |_____________________     |
  | |   |
@ #7 Boise St. 11-1 | |_________________   |
    | | |
  @ #2 Alabama 11-1 | | |
      | |
      | |
      |___________________ |
# 11 Clemson 10-3     |  
  |   |  
  |_____________________   |  
  | | |  
@ #6 Arkansas 10-2 | |_________________ |  
    |    
  @ #3 Oklahoma St. 11-1 |    

 

 

The opening round games will be simulated Friday morning, December 9, and we will post the results on Saturday evening, December 10, as if the games had been played Saturday afternoon.

 

One other tidbit:  All injured players on December 3 will be considered injured for the opening round games as well, unless we see evidence that they were only out for one week.  All players charged with game suspensions will be suspended for the playoffs for the appropriate number of games.  The simulator reduces each teams’ power ratings if key players are not playing.

 

Happy reading everybody.  Please post your comments during this tournament if you like or dislike.  We are interested in seeing opinions.

 

If you want to be proactive in your desire to see this ridiculous post-season bowl system end and be replaced by a legitimate national championship playoff (like every other NCAA/NAIA sport that is not prostituted to greedy corporations), then let the sponsors of the bowl games know of your opinion.  It is simple to find all the sponsors of every bowl game on each bowls’ official website.  Note the sponsoring companies that you currently patronize and find their customer service e-mail addresses.  Send them an e-mail notifying them of your choice to stop using their products as long as they host a bowl game.  Clarify that if they stop sponsoring bowls, you will begin to use their products once again.  To make your point more forceful, include a CC to their competitor, as long as the competitor does not sponsor bowls.

 

For example, let us look at the Fiesta Bowl.  The main sponsor is Frito-Lay, maker of Tostito’s.  They can be e-mailed at: www.fritolay.com/about-us/contact-us.html.  This “bowlcott” will benefit you because you will stop consuming their products made with unhealthy genetically modified corn and oils.  Send a CC to Kettle Chips at: www.kettlebrand.com/.  Kettle Chips are free of trans fats, GMO ingredients or oils, and artificial ingredients.  They make an organic chip as well.

 

These same corporations could just as easily sponsor 35 opening-week “classic” games.  Instead of 35 FBS vs. FCS matchups in week one, there could be 35 games like Oregon vs. LSU and Boise State vs. Georgia.  With a playoff, teams would need to schedule for the highest possible strength of schedule.  Instead of rewarding Virginia Tech with a Sugar Bowl invitation following a stellar non-conference slate of Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State, and Marshall, the Hokies would be forced to start their season against Boise State or Alabama, like they did in 2009 and 2010m when they participated in “classics.” 

 

This would work great all the way through the lower-tier conferences.  MAC teams could face Sunbelt or WAC teams in the opening week.  Mountain West teams could line up against Conference USA teams. 

 

Just like early season basketball matchups like North Carolina vs. Kentucky and Michigan State vs. Duke, imagine an opening week of the 2012 season with these 12 games from among a great list of 35 “classics:”

LSU vs. Stanford

Alabama vs. Oregon

Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame

Arkansas vs. Texas

Michigan vs. Kansas State

South Carolina vs. Wisconsin

Clemson vs. West Virginia

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

T C U vs. Texas A&M

Boise State vs. Florida State

Penn State vs. Pittsburgh

Southern Cal vs. Ohio State

January 3, 2011

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–The Simper Bowl

SIMPER BOWL IV

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation College Football National Championship Game

 

You are looking live at the 2010-11 College Football National Championship Game from Glendale, Arizona.  It’s Simper Bowl IV, and you can feel the excitement in the air.

 

Three weeks ago, 12 teams began their quest to get here today.  Two are left: the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers meet for the second time this season.  These two squared off at Camp Randall Stadium in October with Wisconsin winning 31-18. 

 

If you want to see how these two teams got to Glendale, look at the blog entries for the previous three Mondays.  If you read last week’s entry, it explains how we simulated this big game today.

 

This simulation precludes any actions these two teams actually made during the bowl season.  Only the regular season results were figured in this computation, so if any players were injured during the bowl games, these are not figured into today’s game.  It is as if the bowls never happened.

 

It’s a beautiful evening here in Glendale, Arizona, tonight.  It is clear, and mild with a temperature of 61 degrees.  There is no wind to speak of, and the roof is open tonight.

 

The referee is on the field with the team captains.  Let’s go to our sideline reporter for the coin toss.

 

Gentlemen, this is the Simpler Bowl Official coin.  On this side of the coin is a Buckeye, and on this side of the coin is a Badger.  I will flip the coin, and whichever side it lands on wins the toss.

 

The flip shows that Ohio State has won the toss.  What do you want to do?

 

We want to defer to the second half.

 

Okay, Wisconsin, it’s your choice.  Do you want to receive or pick a side.

 

We want the ball.

 

Ohio State, pick the side you wish to defend.

 

Ohio State has won the toss and deferred to the second half.  Wisconsin will receive and defend this side.

 

Okay, we’re ready for the opening kickoff.

 

1st Quarter

Devin Barclay kicks off for Ohio State, and Jared Abbrederis hauls in the kick at the three.  He moves to the right and crosses the 25 yard line to the 28 for a 25-yard return.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W28

 Scott Tolzien takes the snap and hands the ball to Montee Ball going up the middle to the left.  He crosses the 30 to the 32 yard line where he is met by Andrew Sweat.  Gain of four.

 

2nd & 6 at W32

Tolzien gives to Ball going off left tackle.  Ball cannot break through the line and is stopped for no gain by a swarm of Buckeyes.

 

3rd & 6 at W32

Tolzien drops to pass.  He throws to the right hook to tight end Lance Kendricks.  The pass is complete for 12 yards and a first down.  Tackle made by Orhian Johnson.

 

1st & 10 at W44

Tolzien fakes to Ball and gives to Nick Toon on the reverse.  Toon has room to run. He crosses midfield.  He goes down the sideline and is knocked out of bounds after picking up 21 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O35

Tolzien hands to Ball going up the middle on a quick opener.  Ball picks up three yards before being knocked down by Brian Rolle.

 

2nd & 7 at O32

Tolzien fakes to Ball and drops back to pass, but he is sacked for a six yard loss by Nathan Williams.

 

3rd & 13 at O38

Tolzien drops back to pass.  He spots Isaac Anderson open on the sideline, but Anderson cannot hold onto the ball after being defended by Johnson.

 

4th & 13 at O38

Wisconsin takes a delay of game penalty of five yards.

 

4th & 18 at O43

Brad Nortman is in to punt.  He delivers a high-arching punt that is going to be fair caught by Jordan Hall at the nine yard line.  Punt of 34 yards with no return.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O9

Terrelle Pryor fakes to Dan Herron and keeps the ball going to the right.  He cannot get to the corner and is brought down for a one yard loss.  Tackle by Culmer St. Jean.

 

2nd & 11 at O8

Pryor hands to Herron going off left tackle.  Herron crosses the 10 to the 12 yard line for a gain of four yards.

 

3rd & 7 at O12

Pryor rolls out to the right and looks to pass.  He cannot spot an open receiver, and he runs.  He crosses the 15 to the 18 yard line, where he is going to be short of the first down.

 

4th & 1 at O18

Ben Buchanan is in to punt for the Buckeyes.  He gets off a rocket.  The ball travels 62 yards to the Wisconsin 20.  David Gilreth picks up the ball and tries to run to his left.  He breaks a tackle and has some open space.  He is to the 30, the 40, to midfield before he is brought down at the Ohio State 47.  Hold on.  There is a flag back at the Wisconsin 26.  The referee signals that the Badgers are guilty of an illegal block in the back.  That moves the ball back to the Wisconsin 16.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W16

Tolzien bobbles the snap.  He picks it up and runs back to the line of scrimmage for no gain.

 

2nd & 10 at W16

Tolzien drops back to pass and gives to James White on the draw.  White has some room to run up the middle.  He crosses the 20 to the 24 for a gain of eight yards.

 

3rd & 2 at W24

Tolzien gives to John Clay going up the middle.  He is brought down at the 26 by Ross Homan.  The referee has called for a measurement.  Here comes the chains.  “First Down!”

 

1st & 10 at W26

Tolzien fakes to White and drops back.  Nick Toon is open in the deep middle.  The pass is complete to Toon for 21 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W47

Tolzien gives to White going to the right.  He cannot make it to the corner and turns upfield where he is met by Homan at the line of scrimmage for no gain.

 

2nd & 10 at W47

Tolzien drops back to pass and cannot find an open receiver.  He scrambles to the left and spots White open just across the line of scrimmage.  The pass is complete for five yards.

 

3rd & 5 at O48

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires quickly to Kendricks, but the pass is off target.

 

4th & 5 at O48.

Nortman is in to punt.  Here is the kick.  It does not turn over, and Hall hauls it in at the 13.  He moves to the left and gets three yards on the return.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O16

There is movement in the line.  False start on Ohio State.

 

1st & 15 at O11

Pryor gives to Herron going to the left.  Herron crosses the 15 to the 17, where he is met by Blake Sorensen.

 

2nd & 9 at O17

Pryor fakes to Herron and drops back to pass.  He has no time and is going to go down hard after being sacked by J. J. Watt for a loss of seven.  Pryor is slow to get up.

 

3rd & 16 at O10

Ohio State is forced to take a time out as Pryor is hurting.

 

Time is back in, and Pryor gives to Herron on a delay.  Nobody is fooled, and Herron goes down after picking up four yards.

 

4th & 12 at O14

Buchanan is in to punt.  Here’s the kick.  It travels 41 yard to the Wisconsin 45.  Gilreth makes a fair catch.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W45

Tolzien hands off to Ball going up the middle.  Ball gets to midfield before being met by Rolle and Sweat.  That is the final play of the first quarter.

 

End of 1st Quarter

Ohio State 0  Wisconsin 0

 

2nd Quarter

Wisconsin Ball

2nd & 5 at 50

Tolzien rolls out to his left and pulls up.  He passes down the sideline to Abbrederis who catches the pass for 12 yards and a first down.  Devon Torrence makes the stop.

 

1st & 10 at O38

Tolzien fakes to Ball and drops back to pass.  He is looking deep and has a man open.  He fires to Toon, and Toon makes the diving catch at the Ohio State 11 yard line.  Gain of 27 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O11

Tolzien hands to Ball, and Ball is met at the line by a host of Buckeyes for no gain.  There is a flag on the play.  Wisconsin is guilty of an illegal formation—not enough men on the line.  Ohio State takes the penalty.

 

1st & 15 at O16

Tolzien drops back and gives to Ball on a delay.  He breaks a tackle and crosses the 10 to the seven yard line and a gain of nine.

 

2nd & 6 at O7

Tolzien hands to Ball going to his left.  He dives forward across the five to the three and a gain of four.

 

3rd & 2 at O3

Ohio State jumps offsides, so Wisconsin has a free play.  Tolzien rolls out to his right.  He pulls the ball down.  He sprints to the sideline and crosses the goal for a TOUCHDOWN.  Wisconsin declines the penalty.

 

PAT

Phillip Welch boots the ball through the uprights. 

 

WISCONSIN 7  OHIO STATE 0

 

Kickoff

Welch’s kick bounced into the end zone and goes through for a touchback.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O20

Pryor fakes to Brandon Saine and keeps the ball for a four yard gain to the left.  Antonio Fenelus makes the stop.

 

2nd & 6 at O25

Pryor gives to Saine going wide to the right.  Saine turns the corner and picks up a block.  He crosses the 30 to the 33 for an eight yard gain and a first down.  Aaron Henry makes the stop.

 

1st & 10 at O33

Pryor gives to Herron going up the middle.  He crosses the 35 to the 37 for a gain of four.  Sorenson makes the stop.

 

2nd & 6 at O37

Pryor fakes to Herron and drops back to pass.  Here comes the pass rush.  Pryor escapes the first tackle and rolls to his right.  He gets outside and throws the ball away.

 

3rd & 6 at O37

Pryor drops back to pass and runs the draw up the middle.  He breaks a tackle and crosses the 40 to the 45 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O45

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to the left.  He is met by a swarm of defenders and loses one yard.

 

2nd & 11 at O44

Pryor drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Jake Stoneburner for a gain of seven yards.  Mike Taylor makes the tackle.

 

3rd & 4 at W49

Pryor sprints to his right and looks to pass.  He pulls the ball down and runs for the sideline.  He crosses the spot for a first down and goes out of bounds at the 42.  There is a late hit out of bounds, moving the ball another 15 yards.

 

1st & 10 at W27

Pryor fakes to Herron and looks to the corner of the end zone.  His pass is on target to Devier Posey, but at the last second, it is batted away by Antonio Fenelus and is incomplete.

 

2nd & 10 at W27

Pryor gives to Herron running to his left.  He crosses the 25 to the 22 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 5 at W22

Pryor takes a quick drop and throws quickly to Dane Sanzenbacher.  Sanzenbacher makes the catch but cannot pick up the first down on a gain of four.

 

4th & 1 at W18

Ohio State is going for the first down.  Pryor is under center, and he runs the quarterback sneak for a yard and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W17

Pryor hands the ball to Saine who runs off right tackle.  He crosses the 15 to the 13 and a gain of four.

 

2nd & 6 at W13

Pryor fakes to Saine and sprints left.  He pushes a pass over the outstretched hands of Niles Brinkley, and it is caught by Posey for a seven yard pickup and a first down.

 

1st & G at W6

Pryor hands to Herron going off left tackle.  He has a hole and he waltzes in for the touchdown, but there is a flag down on the play.  The score will not count.  Ohio State is guilty of a hold.

 

1st & G at W16

Pryor rolls to his right and looks back across the middle.  He fires to Stoneburner, but the ball is off target and incomplete.

 

2nd & G at W16

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to the left.  He gets by the first wave and crosses the 15 and the 10 before being knocked out of bounds by Aaron Henry at the eight.

 

 3rd & G at W8

Pryor throws a quick look-in pass to Sanzenbacher that is complete.  Sanzenbacher dives forward to the goal but he comes up a bit short.  Ohio State has the ball just shy of the Wisconsin goal.

 

4th & G at W1

Ohio State is going for it.  Pryor under center.  He sneaks in for the TOUCHDOWN.

 

PAT

Barclay’s point after is good to cap an 18-play, 80-yard drive.

 

OHIO STATE 7  WISCONSIN 7

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick is short but high.  Gilreth hauls it in at the nine and goes straight up the middle.  He crosses the 15 to the 20 and goes down at the 23.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W23

Tolzien fakes to White and drops back to pass.  He has to scramble and runs to his right for a two yard gain.

 

2nd & 8 at W25

Tolzien gives to White going to the left of center.  White picks up three yards.

 

3rd & 5 at W28

Tolzien drops back to pass.  He looks short to Kendricks, but he is covered.  Tolzien takes a sack back at the 20, as Homan comes in on a delayed blitz.

 

4th & 13 at W20

Nortman set to punt.  It is high and long.  Hall retreats and fields it at the Ohio State 32.  Hall has a little room to his right, and he returns the punt to the 39.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O32

Pryor drops back to pass and fires down the left sideline.  Posey makes a circus catch just short of midfield for a gain of 16 and a first down. 

 

1st & 10 at O48

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps the ball around right tackle.  He crosses midfield for a gain of five.

 

2nd & 5 at W47

Pryor gives to Saine going up the middle.  He breaks a tackle and goes down at the 42 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W42

Pryor rolls to his right, looking deep downfield to Sanzenbacher.  Now, he decides to run, and he crosses the 40 to the 37 before being knocked out of bounds by Taylor.

 

2nd & 5 at W37

Pryor fumbles the snap and falls on the ball for a loss of three yards.  Ohio State calls timeout.  That is their first of the half.  There is 2:16 remaining until halftime.

 

3rd & 8 at W40

Pryor runs the QB draw.  He crosses the 35 but is tackled short of the first down by Valai on a gain of six.

 

4th & 2 at W34

Ohio State chooses to go for the first down.  Pryor is under center.  He gives to Herron on a blast off left guard.  Herron’s second effort gets the first down at the 32.

 

1st & 10 at W32

Pryor drops back to pass and has a man open over the middle.  He fires to Saine coming out of the backfield, and the pass is complete.  Saine runs across the 25 to the 23.  Ohio State calls its second timeout of the half.  There is 0:51 remaining until halftime.

 

2nd & 1 at W23

Pryor runs to the right and gets the first down, but he is brought down by St. Jean before he can get out of bounds at the 20.  First Down.

 

1st & 10 at W20

Pryor spikes the ball to stop the clock at 0:43

 

2nd & 10 at W20

Pryor drops back to pass, and he cannot find an open receiver.  He runs to his right and takes a coverage sack at the 22 as he goes out of bounds.

 

3rd & 12 at W22

Pryor gives to Herron on a draw play.  Herron crosses the 20 to the 16.  Ohio State chooses to let the clock run down to 0:03 and takes its final timeout.

 

4th & 6 at W16

Barclay enters the game to attempt a 33-yard field goal.  The snap is good; the ball is placed down, and the kick is GOOD.  The clock expires for halftime.

 

OHIO STATE 10  WISCONSIN 7

 

Third Quarter

Wisconsin will kick off to start the second half.  Welch runs into the ball and kicks a beauty.  The ball bounces in the end zone for a touchback.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O20

Pryor fakes to Herron and tosses quick to Zach Boren.  The pass is complete and Boren is wide open.  He crosses the 25 to the 33 and has a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O33

Pryor gives to Herron.  Herron has a hole.  He crosses the 40 to the 41 for eight yards.

 

2nd & 2 at O41

Pryor fakes right to Herron and keeps to the left.  He crosses the 45 and midfield for a gain of 11 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W48

Pryor gives to Saine up the middle. Saine has nowhere to  run and gets back to the line of scrimmage where Watt brings him down.

 

2nd & 10 at W48

Pryor drops back and throws wide to Sanzenbacher.  The pass is off the mark and incomplete.

 

3rd & 10 at W48

Pryor drops back to pass, but Wisconsin blitzes.  Pryor runs and cannot get to the corner.  He gains one yard.

 

4th & 9 at W47

Buchanan punts, and Gilreth calls for a fair catch at the 11 yard line.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W11

Wisconsin is guilty of a false start.

 

1st & 15 at W6

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  He gets to the 10 yard line and is met by a host of Buckeyes, led by Rolle.

 

2nd & 11 at W10

Tolzien drops to pass and throws to Kendricks.  The pass is incomplete.  Wisconsin is guilty of holding.  Ohio State declines the penalty.

 

3rd & 11 at W10

Tolzien drops to pass, but here comes the Buckeye blitz.  Tolzien has nowhere to go, and he is dropped back at the three by Cameron Heyward.

 

4th & 18 at W3

Nortman set to punt.  It is a low line drive and is returnable.  Hall catches it at the Wisconsin 44.  He crosses the 40, to the 35, the 30, and is knocked out of bounds at the 28.  There is a flag down on the play.  Ohio State is guilty of a block in the back at the 34.  10 yards from the spot places the ball back at the Wisconsin 44.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W44

Pryor gives to Herron.  Herron cuts back inside and has some room to run.  He crosses the 40 to the 34 and has a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W34

Pryor drops to pass.  He spots Posey open on the deep sideline.  His pass is complete.  Posey catches it at the 17 and begins to run.  He’s to the 15, the 10, the 5, and Touchdown!

 

PAT

Barclay’s kick is good.

 

OHIO STATE 17  WISCONSIN 7

 

KICKOFF

Barclay’s kick is taken by Gilreth at the three.  Gilreth runs to his right behind a wall of blockers.  He crosses the 25 to the 28 before going out of bounds.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W28

Tolzien gives to Ball going off right tackle.  Ball crosses the 30 to the 32 before Orhion Johnson meets him for the tackle.

 

2nd & 6 at W32

Tolzien gives to Ball going wide to the right.  Ball has some room to run.  He crosses the 40 to the 44 for a gain of 12 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W44

Tolzien hands to White going up the middle.  White gets two yards before Rolle knocks him to the ground.

 

2nd & 8 at W46

Tolzien stands and fires quickly to Kendricks.  Kendricks catches the ball and gets to the midfield stripe.

 

3rd & 2 at 50

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  He’s going to be close to the first down marker.  The referee calls for a measurement.  Wisconsin is short by about four inches.

 

4th & 1 at O49

Tolzien gives to Clay going off right guard.  He bashes through the line for three yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O46

Tolzien fakes to White and passes wide to Toon.  The pass is complete, and Toon advances the ball to the 32 yard line for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O32

Tolzien hands to White going to his left.  Homan is there to meet him, and White is dropped for a loss of two.

 

2nd & 12 at O34

Tolzien takes a semi-roll to this right and looks to pass.  He fires to Isaac Anderson.  Anderson makes the catch and is immediately brought down by Tyler Moeller at the 24.

 

3rd & 2 at O24

Tolzien fakes to Clay and passes to Kendricks across the middle.  Kendricks catches the ball at the 18 and turns to run.  He crosses the 15 to the 11 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O11

Tolzien hands to Ball going off left tackle.  He crosses the 10 to the 5, and heads to the flag.  He’s brought down at the one, but it is enough for a first down.

 

1st & G at O1

Tolzien sneaks, but he does not get in.  No gain.

 

2nd & G at O1

Tolzien hands to Clay, but Clay fumbles the ball.  There is a pileup on the field.  Wisconsin ball at the 2.

 

3rd & G at O2

Tolzien fakes to Clay and runs into the end zone for the Touchdown!

 

PAT

Welch’s point after try is good.

 

OHIO STATE 17  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Welch’s kick is short and is taken by Jamaal Berry on a bounce at the eight.  Berry heads to his right.  He crosses the 10, the 15, the 20, and he has interference clearing a hole for him.  He crosses the 30, the 40, and is finally pushed out of bounds at the 44.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O44

Pryor fakes to Jordan Hall and keeps in the opposite direction.  He is hit hard by Patrick Butrym and goes down at the 45 for a gain of one.  Pryor seems to be favoring his left elbow. 

 

2nd & 9 at O45

Joe Bauserman replaces Pryor at quarterback.  Bauserman hands to Saine going off right tackle.  Saine gets four yards before being met by Taylor.

 

3rd & 5 at O41

Bauserman gives to Saine going to his left.  He breaks a tackle and heads across the 45 to the 47 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O47

Bauserman fakes to Saine and rolls out to pass.  Nobody is open downfield, but he spots Saine just in front of him.  His pass is complete and Saine turns to run.  He crosses the 50 to the Wisconsin 46 for a gain of seven.

 

2nd & 3 at W46

Bauserman hands to Saine going up the middle.  Saine gets four yards and a first down before Taylor brings him down.  That is the last play of the third quarter.

 

End of 3rd Quarter

Ohio State 17  Wisconsin 14

 

4th Quarter

Ohio State Continues Possession

1st & 10 at W42

Pryor is back in at QB.  He gives to Herron going to his left.  Herron crosses the 40 to the 37.

 

2nd & 5 at W37

Pryor gives to Herron going to his right.  Herron is met by a host of Badger defenders and is taken down for a loss of a yard.

 

3rd & 6 at W38

Pryor drops to pass, and now he runs.  He crosses the 35 and takes a dive at the 32 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W32

Pryor fakes to Herron and fires wide to Sanzenbacher.  The pass is on target and complete to the 20 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W20

Pryor gives to Herron going off right guard.  Pryor doesn’t get much, maybe a yard, before Watt engulfs him at the 19.

 

2nd & 9 at W19

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps to his left.  Now, he pulls up and throws to the end zone to Posey.  The pass is off the mark and incomplete.

 

3rd & 9 at W19

Pryor drops back to pass and is hit as he throws.  The ball sails high and is intercepted by Niles Brinkley at the 10.  Brinkley is off to the races.  He crosses the 20, the 30, the 40, the 50, the Ohio State 40, and is finally brought down at the 38.  There is a flag down on the field back at the Wisconsin 20.

 

Holding on Ohio State is the call, and Wisconsin declines the penalty.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W10

Tolzien gives to Ball going to the left.  Ball turns the corner and gets to the 13.

 

2nd & 7 at W13

Tolzien rolls out wide to the right.  He looks to pass and now decides to run.  He is caught from behind by Nathan Williams and dropped for a three yard loss.

 

3rd & 10 at W10

Tolzien gives to Ball on a draw play.  Ball crosses the 15 to the 17, but he is short of a first down.

 

4th & 3 at W17

Nortman is ready to punt.  It is partially blocked and goes out of bounds at the Badger 38 yard line.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W38

Pryor gives to Herron up the middle.  Herron gets to the 35 for a gain of three.

 

2nd & 7 at W35

Pryor gives to Herron going to his left.  Herron finds a seam and heads to the 30 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 2 at W30

Pryor gives to Saine going up the middle.  Saine breaks a tackle and crosses the 25 to the 23 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W23

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps going in the opposite direction.  He’s fooled the Badger defense.  Pryor crosses the 20 to the 15, the 10, the 5, and he is finally knocked out of bounds at the 2 for a gain of 21 and a first down.

 

1st & G at W2

Pryor gives to Saine, diving across the line, and he falls into the end zone for a Touchdown!

 

PAT

Barclay’s point after attempt is good.

 

OHIO STATE 24  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick sails to the Wisconsin 7 where Abbrederis hauls it in.  He crosses the 20 to the 24 yard line.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W24

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Toon.  Toon makes the catch at the 32 and turns upfield to the 35 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W35

Tolzien fakes to White and passes wide to Anderson.  The pass is complete to the 43, where Devon Torrence brings him down short of the first down.

 

2nd & 2 at W43

Tolzien gives to Clay going left of cente.  Clay crosses the 45 to the 47 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W47

Tolzien fakes to White and drops to pass.  He looks deep across the middle to Kendricks, but the pass is batted away by Jermale Hines.

 

2nd & 10 at W47

Tolzien gives to Ball going wide to the left.  Ball has some room.  He crosses the 50 to the Ohio State 45 and dives to the 43 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O43

Tolzien takes a semi-roll to his right.  He fires downfield to Toon, and the pass is complete at the 36.  Toon turns and breaks a tackle, but he is knocked down from behind by Homan and fumbles.  John Simon recovers for the Buckeyes at the 35.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O35

Pryor fakes to Saine and looks deep down the sideline for Posey.  Posey jumps up and makes a diving catch at the Wisconsin 41 for a gain of 24 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W41

Pryor gives to Saine going off left tackle.  Saine is stopped at the 40 for a gain of a yard.

 

2nd & 9 at W40

Pryor gives to Saine going off right tackle.  Saine cuts back to the inside and gets to the 35 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 4 at W35

Pryor gives to Herron going just right of center.  Herron has a hole.  He crosses the 30 to the 28 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W28

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to his right.  He crosses the 25 to the 23 before being knocked out of bounds.

 

2nd & 5 at W23

Pryor fumbles the snap and falls on the ball for a two yard loss.

 

3rd & 7 at W23

Pryor drops back to pass and escapes a strong pass rush.  He gets outside and throws the ball away.

 

4th & 7 at W23

Barclay attempts a 40-yard field goal.  The ball is down; the kick is up; and it is Good.

 

OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick is a squibb on the ground.  Gilreth comes up to field it on a bounce at the 18.  He gains 10 yards before being brought down by a swarm of Buckeyes.

 

Wisconsin Possession

The Badgers must go to a hurry up offense with 2:05 left in the game.

 

1st & 10 at W28

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Kendricks.  The pass is complete, and Kendricks gets to the 39 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W39

Tolzien drops back and fires quickly to the outside to Toon.  The pass is complete at the 42, and Toon picks up three more yards before going out of bounds.

 

2nd & 4 at W45

Tolzien has no time to pass.  He tries to break free, but he is sacked by Cameron Heyward for a loss of seven.  Wisconsin calls its first timeout of the half.

 

3rd & 11 at W38

Tolzien drops back to pass and looks to his right.  He fires to Anderson, and the pass is complete at the 47 yard line.  Anderson cannot gain anything extra.  Wisconsin calls its second timeout of the half with 1:34 remaining.

 

4th & 2 at W47

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  Her gets across midfield to the Ohio State 48 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O48

Tolzien spikes the ball.

 

2nd & 10 at O48

Tolzien drops to pass and looks deep for Toon.  Toon is covered, and Tolzien dumps to Ball.  Ball catches the ball at the 48 and runs across the 45 to the 41 and out of bounds.

 

3rd & 3 at O41

Tolzien rolls to his right and throws to the sideline to Gilreth.  Gilreth cannot haul it in.

 

4th & 3 at O41

Tolzien fires quickly to Kendrick.  Kendricks catches the ball at the 37 and gets to the 35 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O35

Tolzien spikes the ball with 0:59 remaining.

 

2nd & 10 at O35

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires deep down the left side to Toon.  Toon has it in his hands, but he cannot keep possession of the ball.

 

3rd & 10 at O35

Tolzien drops back and has to scramble immediately.  He crosses the 30 to the 28, but he cannot get the first down.  Wisconsin calls its final timeout.  0:45 to go in the game.

 

4th & 3 at O28

Tolzien drops back and passes to Kendricks.  Kendricks makes the catch at the 20 and turns and races to the 17 before running out of bounds.  First Down Wisconsin.  0:36 left in the game.

 

1st & 10 at O17

Tolzien drops back and fires into the end zone to Toon.  Toon makes the catch for the Touchdown!

 

PAT

Welch’s point after try is good

 

OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 21

 

Kickoff

Wisconsin lines up for an onside kick attempt.  Welch’s kick bounces twice, and Tyler Moeller grabs the ball for Ohio State.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W41

Ohio State comes out in the victory formation.  Pryor takes the snap and takes two steps backward before taking a knee at the 43.  Wisconsin is out of timeouts, and the clock winds to zero.

 

Ohio State has won the Simper Bowl!

 

FINAL SCORE:  OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 21

 

Thank You for tuning in.  Join the PiRate Ratings Thursday afternoon for our computer simulations of the Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs.  We will simulate each of the four games 100 times and give you the results.

December 27, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Semifinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—The Final Four

 

You are looking live at the College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.  Last week in the quarterfinals, Auburn beat Arkansas, Wisconsin edged Stanford, Oregon trounced Boise State, and Ohio State bested TCU.

 

For those of you that did not read our features from the previous two weeks, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began two weeks ago with four games being played.  The quarterfinals ran last Monday; today, the semifinals run, and next Monday, January 3, the Championship Game, called “The Simper Bowl,” will run.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games, and Auburn, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Ohio State advanced to today’s semifinal games. 

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.  They were extremely close today.  In the Orange Bowl, 88 sims were decided by five points or less.  In the Rose Bowl, all 100 sims were decided by single digits, and 17 went to overtime!

 

 

Orange Bowl

#1 Auburn vs. #5 Wisconsin

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 40.6  Auburn 38.7

Wisconsin wins: 53

Auburn wins: 47

 

Outlier A: Wisconsin 48  Auburn 36

Outlier B: Auburn 42  Wisconsin 29

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-248  pass-177

Average Auburn Yards: rush-208  pass-211

 

Rose Bowl

#2 Oregon vs. #6 Ohio State

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.9  Oregon 24.8

Ohio State wins: 50

Oregon wins: 50

Outlier A: Ohio State 45  Oregon 37 3ot

Outlier B: Oregon 30  Ohio State 21

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-183  pass-179

Average Oregon Yards: rush-186  pass-180

 

 

Simper Bowl IV is set.  Congratulations to the Big Ten Conference for landing both championship game participants.  Wisconsin will play Ohio State for all the marbles, and you can see the results next Monday in play-by-play format.

 

The format for the championship game will be different.  We will simulate this game 100 times to discover the winner of the game to determine the winner.  Then, we will simulate it again as many times as needed for the winner to come up with another win.  The first simulation past number 100 that shows our 100-game simulation as the winner will be the official Simper Bowl results.  Since we will give you the results in a play-by-play format, if you do not peak at the bottom, you can follow the action as if you are seeing it unfold live, sort of.

 

For example, let’s say we were simulating 2009 Alabama against 2008 Florida.  Let’s say that Alabama wins the 100 simulations by a margin of 52 to 48.  We will then simulate this game again and again until the result shows Alabama winning and take that first simulation from #101 on that shows Alabama winning as the game result.

 

So, come by this website next Monday afternoon, January 3, 2011, for Simper Bowl IV.

 

Happy New Years to all, and please be responsible Friday night.  Don’t miss 2011 because you were ignorant on the last day of 2010.

December 20, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Quarterfinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—Quarterfinal Round

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.

 

For those of you that did not read our feature from last week, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began last Monday with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run today; the semifinals run next Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game will run on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games. 

 

Here are the matchups for today’s quarterfinal round.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

 

WINNER: AUBURN

 

Average Score: Auburn 44.6  Arkansas 23.9

Auburn wins: 93

Arkansas wins: 7

Outlier A: Auburn 59  Arkansas 17

Outlier B: Arkansas 49  Auburn 42 2OT

Average Auburn Yards: rush-231  pass-280

Average Arkansas Yards: rush-108  pass-271

 

Cotton Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.3  Stanford 36.1

Wisconsin wins: 59

Stanford: 41

Outlier A: Wisconsin 51  Stanford 30

Outlier B: Stanford 40  Wisconsin 27

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-251  pass-208

Average Stanford Yards: rush-106  pass-311

 

Fiesta Bowl

#10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

 

WINNER: OREGON

 

Average Score: Oregon 50.6  Boise State 31.7

Oregon wins: 88

Boise State wins: 12

Outlier A: Oregon 56  Boise State 16

Outlier B: Boise State 48  Oregon 35

Average Oregon Yards: rush-307  pass-277

Average Boise State Yards: rush-133  pass-299

 

Capital One Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 19.7  T C U 14.4

Ohio State wins: 60

T C U: 40

Outlier A: Ohio State 28  T C U 6

Outlier B: T C U 20  Ohio State 7

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-147  pass-155

Average T C U Yards: rush-97  pass-146

 

The semifinal round is set.  In the Orange Bowl, top-seeded Auburn takes on number five seed Wisconsin.  In the Rose Bowl, number two seed Oregon faces number six seed Ohio State.  Have a Merry Christmas, and we will see you next Monday with the new results.

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