A Fool’s Folly
As we always forewarn every week on this particular feature, do not use this entry as real money wagering reference material. This is purely for entertainment purposes, and this season has been a lot more entertaining to those that like comedies of errors. Last week’s picks went 3-3, which resulted in a minor loss. This week, we go with five selections, all against the spread, and a couple swimming against our normal current. Normally, we are more interested in the numbers than the names on our selections. This week, we are choosing five games where we think our pick has been undervalued. It is not our forte, but then our forte needs reinforcing.
Selection #1: Ball St. -2 1/2 over Eastern Michigan
This goes against everything we look for in making a selection. EMU has been playing hot and cold all season, and they are actually due to be hot this week. However, we think that Ball State is 7 to 10 points better, so we are taking the Cardinals as a short favorite. We considered bringing out the big 10-point teaser play with this game included to make it BSU +7 1/2, but there just weren’t two other games to combine it with to our liking.
Selection #2: Ohio +3 vs. Northern Illinois
We’d like this a lot more at +3 1/2, but we didn’t make the selection when it briefly was that number. Ohio has improved by 10 points since the start of the year, while NIU has been mediocre, and the Huskies are not playing up to their talent level. The MAC East is definitely up for grabs, and the Bobcats are in the mix. We believe Ohio will win this game outright.
Selection #3: Ole Miss + 1 1/2 vs. LSU
The Rebels have not had a lot of success in Baton Rouge, last winning there in 2008. Ole Miss has a chance to win the SEC West with Alabama coming to the Grove in November. LSU is coming off an impressive road win at Florida, and we believe the odds have been moved too many points in the Tigers’ favor based on these perceptions. Ole Miss has lapses in most of their games, but then they find their mark and go on big scoring runs, almost like a basketball team. Our belief here is that LSU might have the lead in the second half, before the Rebels score two or three times to win the game.
Selection #4: Purdue + 2 1/2 vs. Wisconsin
This was the game that had us wait to put our picks out, and it never went to 3 points during the time we isolated on it. This game may be a must-win game for the Badgers’ bowl hopes this year. Losing at Michigan State left UW with a thin margin in the hunt for a 6-6 record. On the other hand, Purdue is now squarely in the Big Ten West race with Illinois and can become bowl eligible with a win. As we said above, this game and pointspread goes against all we normally play, but maybe that’s a good thing in this strange year.
Selection #5: Penn St. -4 vs. Minnesota
Again, this is another against the current play. Normally, we would not consider a 4-point favorite coming off a deflating loss as a playable game. However, in this case, we believe the Nittany Lions might win this game by double digits. They had the third quarter lead at Michigan, and then the Wolverines proved too strong. Minnesota has not yet righted the ship after losing Tanner Morgan for the Purdue game. Morgan’s return didn’t propel the Gophers against surprising Illinois last week. Additionally, Morgan exited last week’s game with a blow to the head, and while we expect him to play this week, he won’t be 100% healthy. This looks like the perfect setting for a James Franklin-coached team to rebound with an impressive win to make next week’s very big game meaningful. Jimmy Frank will not led his team look ahead to the Buckeyes.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 