Crash! Like a meteorite falling to Earth, our picks free-fell and left a tail of fire as they fell. In just two lousy weeks, a 16-5 start with an incredible profit has been reduced to a minor loss after failing to pick a single correct selection last week.
Of course, the good news for those of you that read this strictly for enjoyment is that your profit and loss statement has remained the same as ours, nothing wagered and nothing lost or gained, so we can come right back with some selections, knowing we will still have the same amount of money in our real accounts, regardless of what our imaginary accounts indicate.
This week, we add a couple of teaser selections, something we have used in the past, sometimes with very successful results and sometimes stinkers. When we issue teaser selections, it is more important which numbers the teasers pass than the teams involved. We look to change the margin in a way that picks up a large percentage in historical actual spread. Teasing through 3, 6, 7, 10, and 13 points picks up some extra oomph. Additionally, being able to tease a favorite down to just 1 point is another good option. And, if you can tease a favorite into an underdog status of 3 1/2 points or 7 1/2 points, you enjoy some extra advantage.
We haven’t forgotten money line parlays this week, as we have a 3-team parlay going off at better than 2-1 odds, something that won big for us in September.
Without further adieu, here are this week’s selections.
Selection #1: Iowa State +17 vs. Texas
When the margin went from 16 1/2 to 17 late Wednesday afternoon (when this feature is composed), this became a play for us. While we believe this is a single-digit game, we waited for that precious half-point. Iowa State’s defense can slow down the combination of Ewers and Robinson, maybe not enough to win, but enough to lose by 7-13 points.
Selection #2: North Carolina State + 3 1/2 vs. Syracuse
Syracuse being undefeated is a feel good story, but we think the wrong team is favored, and getting that hook onto the 3 makes it quite attractive for our system.
Selection #3: 6-point teaser with 2 games @ -110
Alabama -1 vs. Tennessee
North Carolina -1 vs. Duke
As we mentioned above, teasing a favorite down to 1 point is something we like. We believe the Tide and Tar Heels will both win, and teasing down to 1 is valuable
Selection #4: 9-point teaser with 3 games @ -107
Clemson +5 1/2 vs. Florida St.
Arkansas + 7 1/2 vs. BYU
Illinois + 15 1/2 vs. Minnesota
Taking Clemson from -3 1/2 to +5 1/2 goes through 3 on both sides, and we like the percentage advantage knowing that a 3-point CU loss still wins for this selection. Taking Arkansas from favorite to underdog by more than 7 and knowing that K. J. Jefferson is now likely to play makes the second leg very attractive. Taking a hot home dog and making them more than a 2-touchdown underdog in a game we believe the Illini have a 35-40% chance of winning completes the trio.
Selection #5: Money Line Parlay @ +238.81
Baylor over West Virginia
Miami (O) over Bowling Green
Oregon State over Washington State
West Virginia coach Neal Brown, hoping to not be fired in midseason like five others have been fired so far, has made statements that he knew turning around the Mountaineer program would be a long process. When a coach says this, he is admitting that his team is outmanned. Brown’s job is only a little more secure than Bryan Harsin’s job at the moment, while Baylor is still in the Big 12 race to finish in second place and make the conference championship game.
Miami of Ohio might lose another conference game this year, but we can’t see woeful Bowling Green being that team.
Oregon State and Washington State should be an excellent game to watch as an impartial football fan. The two teams are stronger than many give credit for, and we think the Beavers’ home field advantage is worth just enough to give OSU a slight advantage.
Remember: Don‘t wager real money on these games!
The Pi-Rate Ratings 