The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 11, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 16-17, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:28 am

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LouisvilleFlorida St.-0.5-1.1-0.9
WyomingAir Force-17.9-15.3-18.2
Miami (O)Cincinnati-18.8-15.0-17.7
MichiganConnecticut48.745.951.5
SyracusePurdue-5.1-4.9-4.3
TempleRutgers-22.8-19.7-22.5
BaylorTexas St.37.535.236.0
IndianaWestern Kentucky6.66.20.9
South CarolinaGeorgia-20.7-19.7-22.6
NebraskaOklahoma-11.5-10.6-12.9
Coastal CarolinaBuffalo13.512.414.2
Iowa St.Ohio28.025.426.3
New MexicoUTEP0.71.5-0.5
VirginiaOld Dominion13.914.011.9
UCLASouth Alabama22.121.522.2
Notre DameCalifornia18.116.117.2
UNLVNorth Texas4.83.43.5
Kansas St.Tulane15.014.214.7
WisconsinNew Mexico St.43.941.043.3
AuburnPenn St.-2.8-4.2-3.6
Northern IllinoisVanderbilt5.54.87.8
MinnesotaColorado23.524.825.1
Georgia TechOle Miss-16.4-14.6-16.8
OregonBYU0.82.1-0.1
UABGeorgia Southern10.210.811.2
Appalachian St.Troy10.111.811.6
HoustonKansas6.48.010.7
AlabamaUL-Monroe49.548.051.7
Washington St.Colorado St.19.219.019.8
Wake ForestLiberty14.612.111.4
Bowling GreenMarshall-6.3-8.9-7.8
LSUMississippi St.1.22.01.4
Ohio St.Toledo34.531.133.1
TennesseeAkron43.542.844.5
Georgia St.Charlotte23.621.626.8
North Carolina St.Texas Tech12.513.012.2
MemphisArkansas St.16.615.515.8
Florida AtlanticCentral Florida-13.9-12.8-14.2
FloridaSouth Florida13.917.315.5
MarylandSMU8.89.78.0
WashingtonMichigan St.-10.1-7.8-6.8
Western MichiganPittsburgh-20.1-17.6-16.9
IowaNevada31.127.428.9
RiceLousiana-13.9-15.0-17.6
TexasUTSA18.318.717.2
ClemsonLouisiana Tech41.940.344.2
Texas A&MMiami (Fla.)-2.60.1-1.0
UtahSan Diego St.23.622.325.0
USCFresno St.9.110.48.7
Arizona St.Eastern Michigan21.720.923.0

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
ArizonaNorth Dakota St.3.3
ArkansasMissouri St.31.3
ArmyVillanova11.8
Ball St.Murray St.21.6
Boise St.UT-Martin24.3
Boston CollegeMaine27.1
Central MichiganBucknell37.3
DukeNorth Carolina A&T25.4
East CarolinaCampbell30.4
HawaiiDuquesne12.0
Kent St.Long Island28.8
KentuckyYoungstown St.33.7
MassachusettsStony Brook-1.0
Middle TennesseeTennessee St.24.6
MissouriAbilene Christian28.4
NorthwesternSouthern Illinois18.6
Oklahoma St.Arkansas-Pine Bluff54.3
Oregon St.Montana St.18.3
Southern Miss.Northwestern St.25.4
TulsaJacksonville St.20.5
Virginia TechWofford31.2
West VirginiaTowson St.32.6

Teams With Bye Weeks

Navy
North Carolina
TCU
Illinois
Florida Int’l.
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Stanford
James Madison

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia133.2
2Alabama129.1
3Ohio St.126.6
4Michigan124.0
5Clemson120.5
6Oklahoma118.5
7Michigan St.117.6
8NC State117.1
9Tennessee117.0
10Oklahoma St.116.4
11Utah116.1
12Arkansas115.8
13Purdue115.7
14Penn St.115.6
15Miami (Fla.)115.5
16Wisconsin115.3
17Mississippi St.114.9
18Baylor114.6
19Minnesota114.5
20Pittsburgh114.1
21Kentucky113.6
22L S U113.5
23BYU113.0
24Ole Miss113.0
25Iowa112.5
26Texas112.3
27Notre Dame112.2
28Florida St.112.2
29Kansas St.112.0
30Cincinnati111.9
31Texas A&M111.4
32Oregon111.0
33T C U110.4
34Maryland110.1
35U S C109.9
36U C L A109.4
37Iowa St.109.3
38South Carolina109.2
39Auburn109.1
40Oregon St.108.6
41Louisville108.3
42Syracuse107.9
43Texas Tech107.5
44North Carolina107.4
45Florida107.0
46Wake Forest106.8
47Washington106.3
48UCF105.2
49Illinois105.2
50Arizona St.105.1
51Houston105.0
52Air Force104.6
53SMU104.3
54Boise St.104.1
55Nebraska103.8
56West Virginia103.5
57Fresno St.103.5
58Missouri102.0
59Rutgers101.9
60Washington St.101.9
61Virginia101.7
62East Carolina101.4
63Stanford101.1
64Indiana100.4
65Tulane100.3
66Appalachian St.100.2
67Virginia Tech100.0
68Kansas99.7
69Georgia St.99.5
70Boston College99.2
71Northwestern98.9
72U A B98.7
73Memphis98.5
74W. Kentucky98.3
75California98.1
76Louisiana98.0
77U T S A97.3
78Army97.2
79N. Illinois97.1
80Toledo96.7
81Liberty96.6
82Arizona96.3
83Marshall96.3
84San Diego St.95.5
85Tulsa94.9
86James Madison94.8
87Georgia Tech94.0
88Coastal Carolina93.8
89Vanderbilt93.6
90USF93.4
91Western Mich.93.4
92Colorado93.1
93Central Mich.93.0
94Miami (Ohio)92.8
95Troy91.5
96Ga. Southern90.5
97South Alabama90.4
98Old Dominion90.4
99Utah St.90.0
100Florida Atlantic89.6
101Duke89.4
102U N L V88.4
103Kent St.88.3
104San Jose St.88.1
105Navy87.0
106North Texas87.0
107Southern Miss.86.6
108Nevada86.4
109Eastern Mich.86.2
110Bowling Green86.2
111Ohio85.8
112Colorado St.85.5
113U T E P85.1
114Wyoming84.9
115Arkansas St.84.5
116Middle Tennessee84.0
117Ball St.83.4
118Buffalo83.4
119New Mexico83.2
120UL-Monroe82.4
121Louisiana Tech81.4
122Texas St.80.9
123Rice79.9
124Connecticut78.3
125Temple78.3
126Charlotte78.0
127Akron76.4
128New Mexico St.75.5
129Hawaii72.6
130Massachusetts71.5
131Florida Int’l.65.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.7110.8113.3111.9
UCF104.9105.4105.4105.2
Houston104.8104.3106.0105.0
SMU104.4103.6104.8104.3
East Carolina101.1100.8102.2101.4
Tulane100.8100.1100.1100.3
Memphis98.498.898.398.5
Tulsa95.194.595.194.9
USF94.492.893.293.4
Navy88.087.086.187.0
Temple78.380.775.878.3

AAC98.498.198.298.2

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.3120.2121.1120.5
NC State117.4116.4117.5117.1
Florida St.112.6112.0112.0112.2
Louisville109.1107.9108.1108.3
Syracuse108.7107.6107.4107.9
Wake Forest107.2106.7106.6106.8
Boston College99.0100.698.099.2

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Fla.)116.1114.7115.8115.5
Pittsburgh115.2113.9113.3114.1
North Carolina107.3107.6107.3107.4
Virginia102.3102.4100.3101.7
Virginia Tech100.5101.098.4100.0
Georgia Tech94.894.692.894.0
Duke89.492.086.889.4

ACC107.1107.0106.1106.7

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma118.8117.8118.9118.5
Oklahoma St.117.0115.5116.8116.4
Baylor115.3114.0114.5114.6
Texas113.0112.1111.9112.3
Kansas St.112.8111.3111.8112.0
T C U111.4109.9110.1110.4
Iowa St.109.3109.2109.5109.3
Texas Tech107.9106.4108.3107.5
West Virginia104.1103.7102.6103.5
Kansas101.499.398.499.7

Big 12111.1109.9110.3110.4

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.127.2125.2127.6126.6
Michigan124.5123.0124.5124.0
Michigan St.118.6117.4116.7117.6
Penn St.115.8115.7115.4115.6
Maryland110.2110.3109.9110.1
Rutgers103.1102.4100.3101.9
Indiana101.6101.098.6100.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Purdue116.7115.5114.7115.7
Wisconsin115.8115.1114.8115.3
Minnesota114.6114.0115.0114.5
Iowa113.7112.2111.7112.5
Illinois105.6106.2103.9105.2
Nebraska104.3104.2103.0103.8
Northwestern99.2100.397.198.9

Big Ten112.2111.6110.9111.6

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B98.198.399.798.7
W. Kentucky97.597.3100.298.3
U T S A97.796.397.797.3
Florida Atlantic89.090.689.289.6
North Texas86.986.188.087.0
U T E P85.284.885.285.1
Middle Tennessee83.284.484.584.0
Louisiana Tech81.482.979.981.4
Rice80.579.979.479.9
Charlotte77.878.977.278.0
Florida Int’l.65.067.863.265.3

CUSA85.786.185.985.9

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanAverageAverage
BYU113.6111.7113.7113.0
Notre Dame112.8110.9113.0112.2
Army97.097.497.397.2
Liberty95.297.197.696.6
Connecticut78.880.076.178.3
New Mexico St.75.077.174.575.5
Massachusetts72.272.669.771.5
Independents92.192.491.792.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)90.993.893.692.8
Kent St.87.489.787.788.3
Bowling Green86.985.686.086.2
Ohio84.486.886.185.8
Buffalo82.084.683.783.4
Akron76.477.175.776.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois96.997.297.397.1
Toledo95.797.097.596.7
Western Mich.92.693.893.993.4
Central Mich.91.493.394.293.0
Eastern Mich.86.186.685.886.2
Ball St.83.184.283.183.4

MAC87.889.188.788.6

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force104.1104.0105.6104.6
Boise St.104.2103.2104.8104.1
Utah St.89.789.990.490.0
Colorado St.85.286.185.485.5
Wyoming83.786.284.984.9
New Mexico83.483.982.283.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.103.3102.6104.5103.5
San Diego St.95.495.395.695.5
U N L V89.286.989.088.4
San Jose St.87.688.088.888.1
Nevada85.787.885.886.4
Hawaii72.073.372.772.6

MWC90.390.690.890.6

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.0114.7117.6116.1
Oregon111.4110.9110.6111.0
U S C109.4110.0110.2109.9
U C L A108.9108.8110.5109.4
Oregon St.108.5108.0109.4108.6
Washington105.5106.6106.9106.3
Arizona St.104.8104.6105.8105.1
Washington St.101.4102.0102.2101.9
Stanford102.6100.0100.6101.1
California97.697.898.898.1
Arizona96.496.396.396.3
Colorado94.192.292.993.1

Pac-12104.7104.3105.2104.7

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.2131.5134.8133.2
Tennessee116.9116.8117.2117.0
Kentucky112.8113.6114.3113.6
South Carolina109.6108.8109.2109.2
Florida106.2108.1106.7107.0
Missouri102.2102.6101.0102.0
Vanderbilt93.994.992.093.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.1127.9130.4129.1
Arkansas116.3114.5116.7115.8
Mississippi St.115.9114.3114.7114.9
L S U114.1113.2113.1113.5
Ole Miss114.2112.2112.6113.0
Texas A&M110.5111.8111.8111.4
Auburn110.0108.5108.7109.1

SEC113.2112.8113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.98.6100.5101.3100.2
Georgia St.98.998.0101.599.5
Marshall95.697.096.396.3
James Madison92.594.497.494.8
Coastal Carolina92.594.094.893.8
Ga. Southern90.590.091.090.5
Old Dominion90.490.490.490.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana96.997.499.598.0
Troy91.091.292.391.5
South Alabama89.790.291.390.4
Southern Miss.86.286.986.886.6
Arkansas St.83.885.384.584.5
UL-Monroe82.682.981.782.4
Texas St.80.281.481.080.9

Sun Belt90.791.492.191.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten111.6
3Big 12110.4
4Atlantic Coast106.7
5Pac-12104.7
6American Athletic98.2
7Independents92.1
8Sun Belt91.4
9Mountain West90.6
10Mid-American88.6
11Conference USA85.9

A Tale of Two Conferences

In the mid 1990’s, Conference USA formed when the old Metro Conference dissolved. The league was founded to combine two former basketball conferences into a Midwestern league. At the time, it also had some rather successful football teams. Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Southern Miss., UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, East Carolina, and Army were all early members of the new league. Then, TCU joined and had a top 5 season in the early 2000’s. The league saw early success, and with that, the Big East raided CUSA and took Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida. Seeing the writing on the wall, TCU bolted for the Mountain West, where an incredible rivalry with Boise State ensued. CUSA then expanded with new members, making the league quite relevant, as the new teams provided numerous upsets over Power Conference opponents. Central Florida, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, and Marshall joined the league and all found some successful seasons. Then, the American Athletic Conference formed, and once again, CUSA lost some significant teams in Memphis, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida, SMU, and Tulsa.

The Sun Belt Conference began as a basketball league back in the mid-1970’s, and in its early years, the league jumped over many others in the Low and Mid-Major area. There was a year where four SBC teams made the NCAA Tournament. The league saw teams come and go, as it struggled financially. They even kicked New Orleans out of the conference because the Privateers did not have a Division 1 level gymnasium.

The Sun Belt decided to sponsor football beginning in the early part of this century. Almost annually, the makeup of the league changed. Teams as far west as Utah State and Idaho joined the conference at times, as they played in the same league with teams from Florida. When Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and UAB all left the Sun Belt for CUSA in a matter of a couple of seasons, it looked like CUSA would force the SBC back to a basketball conference, while CUSA continued to thrive with some respectable programs.

Then, something happened. About the time that the SEC was becoming a super league and superior to all others, and all their member schools began recruiting nationally instead of regionally, a lot of really good Southeastern recruits started to lose out to the elite 5-star and high 4-star talents from all over America. These low 4-star and 3-star players had once filled SEC rosters, but now they needed to find other schools. Many of them chose to stay near their homes, and that mean Sun Belt Conference schools.

Schools like Troy, Georgia Southern, and what was still known as Louisiana-Lafayette started getting players that used to go to Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. The addition of Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State to the league as they moved to FBS brought some solid former FCS programs that further strengthened this league. All of a sudden, the SBC passed CUSA, and it was CUSA that almost died when the 2021 expansion routlette began. Texas and Oklahoma decided to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, so the Big 12 robbed the AAC of its three best schools, and then the AAC robbed CUSA of its largest market schools. Three schools, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss quickly petitioned the Sun Belt for admission and were fast-tracked. Then the league found a real diamond in the rough in James Madison. Meanwhile, CUSA had to look for crumbs just to survive. They secured markers for FCS schools Jacksonville State and Sam Houston, and then added Liberty and New Mexico State as future members. It was almost too late, because both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee came very close to leaving for the Mid-American Conference.

In just five or six years, the Sun Belt rose from weakeast FBS league by far to possibly the strongest. Once Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida leave the American, the SBC should be better than the new AAC with CUSA teams. It has already passed the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Conference USA football as a whole might not be as strong as the FCS Missouri Valley Football Conference once the league is reduced to ashes by the departures of its top markets.

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