| Saturday, March 26, 2022 | ||
| Team | Team | Spread |
| Villanova | Houston | -2.1 |
| Duke | Arkansas | 3.7 |
| Southern Utah | Portland | 3.7 |
Elite 8 Bracketnomics Analysis
| Team | O-Eff | D-Eff | SOS | 37+ 3pt | OReb% | -45% vs. 2pt | FT Rate 37 | R + T New Rate | Old R+T |
| Villanova | 8 | 30 | 60.8 | 0.360 | 31.2 | 48.6 | 0.30 | 6.5 | 11.6 |
| Houston | 10 | 10 | 56.5 | 0.345 | 37.7 | 44.0 | 0.29 | 14.1 | 22.0 |
| Duke | 4 | 43 | 58.2 | 0.370 | 31.9 | 46.4 | 0.29 | 3.9 | 12.3 |
| Arkansas | 54 | 14 | 58.2 | 0.304 | 29.9 | 46.5 | 0.38 | 6.9 | 12.7 |
| North Carolina | 20 | 42 | 59.0 | 0.364 | 30.7 | 48.0 | 0.30 | 9.6 | 16.0 |
| Saint Peter’s | 225 | 28 | 49.5 | 0.355 | 32.1 | 43.5 | 0.38 | 4.6 | 8.9 |
| Kansas | 6 | 26 | 61.8 | 0.360 | 33.5 | 47.1 | 0.32 | 6.2 | 13.3 |
| Miami (Fla.) | 18 | 121 | 57.9 | 0.344 | 22.7 | 53.2 | 0.29 | -5.4 | -3.0 |
Villanova vs. Houston: Houston has a more perfect Final Four Bracketnomics resume, but there is a caveat. The Cougars accumulated some of this resume with two former starters that were both lost for the season due to injuries.
Villanova has a better schedule strength and a better three-point shooting percentage, while Houston holds the R+T edge. It is so close to call, but the general rule of thumb is to go with the better R+T rating in tossup games. By a thin hair, the pick is Houston to repeat as a Final Four team.
Duke vs. Arkansas: It appears as if the Atlantic Coast Conference was quite underrated this year. Three of the Elite 8 are ACC teams. Duke showed a lot of toughness beating the number one defensive team in the nation Thursday night. Of course, Arkansas beat the number one team overall, and it did not look like a fluke.
Duke is close to having an ideal Final Four resume. The key here is that the Blue Devils have a considerably better Final Four resume than Arkansas, and they add two intangibles. First, they are playing for Coach K to go out a champion like John Wooden. Second, the ACC may need a few extra points in schedule strength. Duke is the choice.
North Carolina vs. Saint Peter’s: What we have here is a total monkey wrench in the Bracketnomics system. Saint Peter’s is not supposed to be here. I am not saying that no mid-major team should ever be in the Elite 8. It’s just that the Peacocks, with this resume, do not fit like past mid-major teams like George Mason, Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler. If Saint Peter’s makes the Final Four, the Bracketnomics System will be a total failure, because there isn’t any justification that says the Peacocks should make the Final Four.
How did this tiny commuter school located on both sides of what was once the Lincoln Highway in Jersey City get to the Elite 8? Beating Kentucky was “The Mouse That Roared.” This was not one of those all freshmen teams with no tournament experience. Beating Murray State wasn’t as surprising as we thought the Racers had failed to beat a really quality team. Beating Purdue was almost as shocking as beating Kentucky, but we have noted that Gene Keady and his disciples have never had great success in the NCAA Tournamnent, as Steve Lavin and Kevin Stallings also had issues with teams trying to win half-court possessions at the expense of forcing the issue and accumulating great R+T rating scores.
Now comes a North Carolina team that at one point this year lost to Kentucky by more than 30 points and looked like an NIT team but all of a sudden caught fire and slaughtered Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Coach K’s final home game. North Carolina looked like a national championship team in the Sweet 16, and Hubert Davis must be given all kinds of credit for guiding the Tar Heels from probable NIT to probable Final Four. I am going with the Tar Heels to set up the incredible top rivalry game in the Final Four. Saint Peter’s has a slightly better defensive efficiency, and their guards are incredibly deceptively better than a Metro Atlantic team, but the Peacocks’ schedule strength does not measure up to Final Four standards. What we’re looking at is an allowance horse champion trying to beat a Grade 1 Stakes winner in the Florida Derby with a trip to Churchill Downs on the line. For the sake of this system, the pick is North Carolina.
Kansas vs. Miami (Fla): After Selection Sunday, when we presented our massive Bracketnomics release, Kansas was our choice to go all the way and win the National Championship. The Jayhawks are halfway to the prize, but KU hasn’t won their games as convincingly as I hoped. Now the Jayhawks face a team that can attack them in a different way with Larranaga’s Runts. Miami is another team that the Bracketnomics say should not be here. Their R+T rating is the absolute lowest in R+T history of any Elite 8 team. In fact, they were not supposed to make it past the Round of 32 with this R+T rating.
In every facet that matters, KU has the advantage. This game should be a double-digit win for the Jayhawks, but with KU not clicking on all cylinders and Miami playing at its peak in the obviously underrated ACC, this game looks painfully closer than it should be. The pick is Kansas, but it may be one of those ugly wins.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 