The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 16-20, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigan4.53.43.6
Ohio UToledo-7.9-6.7-6.2
Miami (O)Bowling Green26.324.625.8
Ball St.Central Michigan0.30.9-0.7
BuffaloNorthern Illinois1.61.82.0
DukeLouisville-19.5-19.2-22.0
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss.12.212.011.4
HoustonMemphis14.613.514.0
Washington St.Arizona13.414.213.5
NevadaAir Force3.84.53.1
UNLVSan Diego St.-12.4-12.6-12.0
PittsburghVirginia8.98.79.4
CincinnatiSMU15.514.715.7
ArmyMassachusetts39.039.541.5
Central FloridaConnecticut34.032.437.6
Miami (Fla.)Virginia Tech9.19.09.6
North Carolina St.Syracuse16.215.816.4
AkronKent St.-9.9-12.2-11.4
Ohio St.Michigan St.22.622.523.7
Coastal CarolinaTexas St.28.728.829.9
MarylandMichigan-11.0-13.2-14.0
MissouriFlorida-7.0-8.0-8.3
West VirginiaTexas3.63.72.8
TennesseeSouth Alabama21.421.522.6
Boston CollegeFlorida St.1.41.31.1
LibertyLouisiana-2.4-0.6-1.3
Northwestern (Wrig)Purdue-11.3-11.0-13.0
IndianaMinnesota-6.6-7.7-8.3
Penn St.Rutgers20.018.621.4
ClemsonWake Forest4.54.75.0
WisconsinNebraska11.811.412.6
Western KentuckyFlorida Atlantic7.88.49.7
IowaIllinois18.017.217.9
Boise St.New Mexico28.128.430.4
UtahOregon6.95.84.8
ColoradoWashington-5.4-6.8-7.0
Notre DameGeorgia Tech20.221.122.0
StanfordCalifornia0.6-2.0-2.2
Oregon St.Arizona St.1.00.70.3
USCUCLA-0.3-0.8-0.4
NavyEast Carolina-7.2-7.2-7.9
South CarolinaAuburn-10.9-10.7-12.1
TulsaTemple23.722.924.0
TroyAppalachian St.-11.0-10.8-12.1
Ole MissVanderbilt39.139.440.0
Middle TennesseeOld Dominion11.310.611.3
AlabamaArkansas21.120.522.1
LSULouisiana-Monroe33.234.135.2
TulaneSouth Florida6.55.86.8
OklahomaIowa St.4.74.54.4
TCUKansas24.825.628.2
KentuckyNew Mexico St.41.341.743.0
CharlotteMarshall-15.9-15.2-15.6
UTSAUAB6.06.46.1
Texas TechOklahoma St.-14.4-14.1-14.8
Kansas St.Baylor-0.7-0.6-1.0
Georgia St.Arkansas St.17.416.618.2
UTEPRice6.47.55.9
Georgia SouthernBYU-20.1-19.6-20.6
Florida Int’l.North Texas-10.2-10.4-10.2
Utah St.Wyoming7.57.96.8
HawaiiColorado St.0.80.4-0.1

The Northwestern and Purdue game will be played at Wrigley Field.

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
GeorgiaCharleston Southern48.4
Texas A&MPrairie View36.4
Mississippi St.Tennessee St.36.4
North CarolinaWofford33.2

Teams Not Playing This Week

Fresno St.
San Jose St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia136.0
2Alabama131.6
3Ohio St.130.3
4Oklahoma St.121.2
5Oklahoma120.2
6Texas A&M119.6
7Iowa St.118.6
8Wisconsin118.5
9Ole Miss117.5
10Notre Dame117.3
11Cincinnati117.2
12Utah117.0
13Michigan116.3
14Auburn115.0
15Penn St.115.0
16Baylor114.7
17Oregon114.2
18Clemson113.5
19Arkansas113.3
20Iowa113.0
21Mississippi St.112.5
22NC State112.2
23Wake Forest111.8
24Arizona St.111.6
25L S U111.5
26Kansas St.110.9
27Florida110.4
28Michigan St.110.4
29North Carolina110.4
30U C L A110.1
31Pittsburgh110.0
32Kentucky110.0
33Tennessee109.8
34BYU109.7
35Nebraska109.5
36West Virginia109.3
37Oregon St.109.2
38Texas108.9
39Purdue108.8
40Miami (Fla.)108.5
41U S C108.1
42Louisiana108.0
43Minnesota107.9
44Coastal Carolina107.7
45Louisville106.8
46Washington106.7
47Boise St.106.6
48Appalachian St.106.6
49Houston105.7
50T C U105.7
51SMU104.9
52Florida St.104.7
53Washington St.104.6
54Virginia104.0
55Texas Tech103.8
56Liberty103.6
57Boston College102.9
58Nevada102.5
59Virginia Tech102.3
60California101.8
61Air Force101.7
62San Diego St.101.5
63Army101.4
64U T S A101.1
65Fresno St.101.1
66South Carolina100.8
67East Carolina100.6
68Maryland100.5
69UCF99.8
70Missouri99.7
71Georgia Tech99.3
72Syracuse99.1
73Stanford99.1
74Miami (Ohio)98.5
75Toledo98.5
76Illinois98.3
77U A B97.9
78Indiana97.9
79Georgia St.97.6
80Central Michigan97.5
81Colorado97.3
82Rutgers97.0
83Marshall96.8
84Utah St.96.7
85Tulsa96.0
86Western Kentucky96.0
87Northwestern95.6
88Ball St.95.2
89Memphis94.7
90Arizona93.9
91Eastern Michigan93.6
92Tulane93.2
93Troy92.7
94Colorado St.92.7
95Wyoming92.3
96Western Michigan91.8
97South Alabama91.0
98San Jose St.90.7
99Middle Tennessee90.5
100Northern Illinois90.4
101Florida Atlantic90.3
102Navy90.2
103Kent St.90.0
104Buffalo89.7
105Ohio89.5
106USF89.3
107Hawaii89.0
108Georgia Southern86.6
109U N L V86.6
110U T E P84.3
111Duke84.1
112Louisiana Tech83.5
113North Texas83.1
114Arkansas St.82.7
115Kansas82.5
116Old Dominion81.9
117Texas St.81.5
118Vanderbilt81.0
119New Mexico80.6
120Rice80.2
121UL-Monroe79.3
122Charlotte78.7
123Akron76.8
124Temple75.5
125Bowling Green74.9
126Southern Miss.74.2
127New Mexico St.71.0
128Florida Int’l.70.4
129Connecticut68.1
130UMass64.4

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive (forward thinking) and not rankings based on what teams have done to date.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati117.1116.4118.1117.2
Houston105.7105.0106.4105.7
SMU104.6104.7105.4104.9
East Carolina100.3100.1101.5100.6
UCF99.898.6101.199.8
Tulsa96.095.996.296.0
Memphis94.194.595.494.7
Tulane93.392.194.193.2
Navy90.189.990.790.2
USF89.388.989.889.3
Temple75.376.075.275.5

AAC Averages96.996.697.697.0


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson113.2113.1114.2113.5
NC State112.1111.9112.6112.2
Wake Forest111.7111.4112.2111.8
Louisville106.4106.4107.7106.8
Florida St.104.4104.6105.0104.7
Boston College102.8102.9103.1102.9
Syracuse99.099.199.299.1

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.9109.9111.3110.4
Pittsburgh109.7110.4110.1110.0
Miami (Fla.)108.9108.1108.6108.5
Virginia103.8104.6103.7104.0
Virginia Tech102.8102.1102.0102.3
Georgia Tech99.399.399.299.3
Duke84.484.883.284.1

ACC Averages104.9104.9105.2105.0


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.121.5121.2121.0121.2
Oklahoma121.1119.4120.0120.2
Iowa St.119.3117.9118.6118.6
Baylor115.2114.5114.4114.7
Kansas St.111.4110.9110.4110.9
West Virginia110.6109.0108.3109.3
Texas110.0108.2108.6108.9
T C U106.4105.2105.4105.7
Texas Tech104.1104.1103.2103.8
Kansas84.682.680.382.5

Big 12 Averages110.4109.3109.0109.6


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.129.8129.8131.3130.3
Michigan115.5116.4116.9116.3
Penn St.114.1114.6116.1115.0
Michigan St.110.2110.3110.6110.4
Maryland101.4100.299.9100.5
Indiana97.997.698.097.9
Rutgers96.198.096.797.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin117.9117.8119.6118.5
Iowa112.9112.5113.7113.0
Nebraska109.2109.4110.0109.5
Purdue108.3108.2110.0108.8
Minnesota107.1107.8108.8107.9
Illinois97.998.398.898.3
Northwestern95.595.795.595.6

Big Ten Averages108.1108.4109.0108.5


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.596.797.296.8
Western Kentucky94.796.396.996.0
Middle Tennessee90.090.391.190.5
Florida Atlantic89.990.890.290.3
Old Dominion81.282.282.381.9
Charlotte78.178.979.078.7
Florida Int’l.70.270.470.570.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A100.7101.4101.3101.1
U A B97.798.098.197.9
U T E P84.185.283.584.3
Louisiana Tech83.884.182.783.5
North Texas82.983.383.283.1
Rice80.280.280.280.2
Southern Miss.74.174.573.874.2

CUSA Averages86.086.686.486.3


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame116.5117.3118.2117.3
BYU109.8109.4110.0109.7
Liberty103.2103.7103.9103.6
Army101.5101.4101.2101.4
New Mexico St.71.371.969.871.0
Connecticut68.769.266.568.1
UMass65.564.962.864.4

Indep. Averages90.991.190.390.8


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.898.397.498.5
Kent St.89.891.089.390.0
Buffalo90.589.589.189.7
Ohio89.189.989.689.5
Akron77.976.875.976.8
Bowling Green75.575.773.574.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo99.198.597.898.5
Central Michigan98.597.296.997.5
Ball St.96.295.693.795.2
Eastern Michigan94.893.692.493.6
Western Michigan92.292.290.891.8
Northern Illinois91.390.289.690.4

MAC Averages91.290.789.790.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.106.2106.4107.1106.6
Air Force101.3101.6102.2101.7
Utah St.96.397.296.796.7
Colorado St.92.792.692.792.7
Wyoming91.892.392.992.3
New Mexico81.181.079.780.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Nevada102.1103.1102.3102.5
San Diego St.101.7101.5101.3101.5
Fresno St.100.2101.2101.9101.1
San Jose St.91.091.289.990.7
Hawaii89.489.088.689.0
U N L V86.886.486.886.6

MWC Averages95.095.395.295.2


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon113.1114.4115.2114.2
Oregon St.108.9109.4109.4109.2
Washington106.1107.1107.0106.7
Washington St.104.2105.1104.6104.6
California100.0103.0102.4101.8
Stanford99.099.598.799.1

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah117.0117.1117.0117.0
Arizona St.111.0111.7112.1111.6
U C L A109.8110.1110.3110.1
U S C108.0107.8108.4108.1
Colorado97.697.496.997.3
Arizona93.793.994.193.9
Pac-12 Averages105.7106.4106.3106.1


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia135.5135.9136.8136.0
Florida109.9111.0110.4110.4
Kentucky109.6110.6109.8110.0
Tennessee109.7109.6110.1109.8
South Carolina101.3100.9100.2100.8
Missouri99.9100.099.199.7
Vanderbilt81.381.080.681.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.6130.9132.2131.6
Texas A&M119.3119.8119.6119.6
Ole Miss117.4117.4117.6117.5
Auburn115.2114.6115.3115.0
Arkansas113.4113.4113.1113.3
Mississippi St.112.2112.7112.7112.5
L S U111.0111.7111.7111.5

SEC Averages112.0112.1112.1112.1


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina108.3106.7107.9107.7
Appalachian St.106.1106.0107.6106.6
Georgia St.97.897.197.897.6
Troy92.692.793.092.7
Georgia Southern86.786.986.486.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.6107.3108.3108.0
South Alabama91.391.190.591.0
Arkansas St.82.983.082.182.7
Texas St.82.680.981.181.5
UL-Monroe79.879.678.579.3

Sun Averages93.793.193.393.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.1
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.5
4Pac-12106.1
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.2
8Sun Belt93.4
9Independents90.8
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.3

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: This is the first week where we do not project 82 teams to have six or more wins. This week, we project two 5-7 teams to receive bowl bids, both from the Pac-12–Washington and California.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUABNorthern Illinois
CureLibertyAppalachian St.
BocaMiddle TennesseeMiami (O)
New MexicoUTEPUtah St.
IndependenceBYUWestern Kentucky
Lending TreeCentral MichiganSan Jose St.
L. A.San Diego St.USC
New OrleansFlorida AtlanticLouisiana
Myrtle BeachWest VirginiaCoastal Carolina
Famous Idaho PotatoKent St.Boise St.
FriscoHoustonUTSA
Armed ForcesArmyMarshall
GasparillaCaliforniaFlorida
HawaiiEast CarolinaNevada
CamelliaToledoGeorgia St.
Quick LaneEastern MichiganWyoming
MilitaryVirginiaSMU
BirminghamMemphisBall St.
First ResponderWashingtonFresno St.
LibertyIowa St.Missouri
HolidayNorth CarolinaUCLA
Guaranteed RateRutgersTexas Tech
FenwayBoston CollegeCentral Florida
PinstripeNorth Carolina St.Minnesota
Cheez-ItBaylorWake Forest
AlamoOklahomaArizona St.
Duke’s MayoMiami (Fla.)Auburn
Music CityPenn St.Tennessee
Las VegasPurdueWashington St.
Tax Slayer GatorClemsonMississippi St.
Tony The Tiger SunLouisvilleOregon St.
ArizonaWestern MichiganAir Force
CitrusIowaTexas A&M
OutbackWisconsinKentucky
TexasKansas St.Arkansas
PeachCincinnatiMichigan St.
FiestaNotre DamePittsburgh
RoseMichiganUtah
SugarOle MissOklahoma St.
CottonOregonOhio St.
OrangeGeorgiaAlabama
ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

Where Cincinnati Rates Historically Among Other Unbeatens

With Cincinnati sitting at 10-0 and just on the outside, looking in on a potential College Football Playoff invitation, where do the Bearcats fit in the historical picture of Division 1 teams that won all their games but were not members of a major conference or top independent?

This may be putting the cart before the horse, because CU must win three more games against three better than average teams to get to 13-0 and have a chance to be in the Final Four.  A home game this week against SMU could be tricky.  A regular season finale at East Carolina is going to be somewhat trickier, as the Pirates have been sneaky good for two months.  But, even if Cinti wins those two games, they will have to beat a Houston team that has looked better than the Bearcats in the last month.

Here is a look at all the Division 1 teams with perfect records between 1960 and 2000.  I chose these years as a basis for comparing the Bearcats because the sample size was extremely large.

1960–New Mexico State and Yale

Both teams finished in the national top 20, but neither team was at the level of 2021 Cincinnati.  While the Ivy League was still Division 1 up until the late 1970’s, by 1960, it was about on par with Conference USA today and maybe not that strong.  Yale beat U Conn and Colgate out of conference.  NMSU was much better and deserving of their 11-0 season that included a win in the Sun Bowl.  With future NFL QB Charley Johnson running the offense, the Aggies were as good as UTSA and Louisiana today, but not Cincinnati.

1961–Rutgers

This is one of the weakest undefeated D1 teams in modern times.  Rutgers went 9-0 with five wins over small college opponents and four wins over Ivy League opponents.  

1962–Dartmouth

Coach Bob Blackman was a defensive wizard, and he built Dartmouth into a small power.  This was his first of three 9-0 teams.  Dartmouth gave up just 9 points in their first seven games, but this team was never ranked and not on Cincinnati’s level.  That would change.

1964–Princeton

The 9-0 Tigers were one of the last teams to run a single wing offense, and Princeton won a lot of close games to win the Ivy.  PU was never ranked, and this Tiger team was little better than the 1961 Rutgers team.

1965–Dartmouth

This Dartmouth team was somewhat better than the 1962 team with a more consistent running game that controlled the clock.  Eight of nine wins were never in doubt, but the DC was not on Cincinnati’s level this season.  We’re not through with this team though.

1969–San Diego State, Toledo

The Aztecs became classified as a major college team after years of being a dynasty small college team.  Coach Don Coryell was in the middle of sending quarterbacks to the NFL, and in Dennis Shaw, he may have had the best passer in the nation, as SDSU went 11-0, while averaging 45 points per game.  This team did not earn a ranking in the polls, and their schedule was not worthy of that honor.  Not only was this team not on par with 2021 Cincinnati, the 2021 SDSU team would have beaten the 1969 team.

Toledo began a three-year string from 1969 to 1971 where the Rockets won every game.  This was not their best in the three-year run, but they did briefly crack the AP Poll.

1970–Arizona State, Toledo, Dartmouth

Now, we have some interesting undefeated teams.  Arizona State finished #6 in the final polls with an 11-0 record that included wins over Kansas State, Washington State, Utah, and North Carolina in the Peach Bowl.  The Sun Devils might have been a tad better than this Cincinnati team.  ASU was loaded with future NFL players.

Toledo’s 1970 team finished #12 in the final poll, but this Rockets team was considerably underrated in 1970.  Toledo should have been a Top 10 team that year.  Their schedule lacked a power team, which is why they finished #12, but they outgained opponents by close to 200 yards a game when 300 yards was considered an offensive outburst.  They won the Tangerine Bowl by four touchdowns.  I believe this Toledo team was about as good as this year’s Cincinnati.

Now, for Dartmouth.  This was Bob Blackman’s and the Ivy League’s best team post World War II.  Dartmouth became the last Ivy League team to finish ranked in the national polls at a way underrated #14.  This team went 9-0, finishing in the top 10 nationally in both offense and defense, as they outgained opponents by close to 250 yards per game.  They shut out six of their nine opponents, including their final four games.  Football experts that saw this team play say they would have defeated Penn State that year, and DC was awarded the Lambert Trophy as the best team in the East.  This team might have been strong enough to win a New Year’s Bowl game that year.  

1971–Toledo

The third year run of undefeated Rocket teams, they finished #14 in the final polls, but this team was not as good as the 1970 team.  Interestingly, this Toledo team became one of just two major college teams to post back-to-back perfect seasons with different coaches.  Michigan was the other in 1947 and 1948.

1973–Miami of Ohio

What makes 1973 a bit different from the previous years mentioned in this section is that half of the MAC teams were ranked in the top 20 at some point in 1973.  Miami not only beat the other ranked MAC teams, they dominated Florida in the Tangerine Bowl, totally stopping a Gators’ offense that had defeated rival Florida State 49-0 in the regular season finale.  Miami allowed less than 7 points per game and less than 200 total yards per game.  In a year where six major conference teams did not lose a regular season game, this Miami team got lost in the mix, but I would have favored them over this year’s Cincinnati team.

1975–Arizona State, Arkansas State

This Sun Devils team was not as good as the 1970 team, but they finished #2 in the final rankings thanks to come-from-behind wins over ranked Arizona and Nebraska teams, the Cornhusker upset coming in the Fiesta Bowl.  It also helped that there were no other undefeated teams in Division 1 that year, as 11-1 Oklahoma won the national championship after Ohio State lost the Rose Bowl.  2021 Cincinnati probably would beat this ASU team.

Arkansas State went 11-0 with a powerful wishbone offense.  Included in the 11 wins were victories over 7-4 Memphis and 6-5 Cincinnati, but this team was about as strong as Louisiana and Appalachian State are today.  

1976–Rutgers

1976 was a great year for Scarlet Knight fans.  The football team went 11-0 following a basketball team that went undefeated until the Final Four, where they lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in the nation semifinals.  This 11-0 football team finished #17 in the polls, but they were not on the level of this year’s Cincinnati.  Their best win was over a Colgate team that went 8-2, but it was a controversial win with questionable officiating calls.

1984–BYU

Did BYU deserve to win the 1984 National Championship?  Were they better than this year’s Cincinnati team?  I don’t think so.  This wasn’t even the best BYU team in this era, just the one that was fortunate to go 13-0 against a weak schedule and win a bowl game over the weakest Michigan team in the Bo Schembechler era.  BYU’s key wins were against a 3-7-1 Pitt team and a 5-6 Baylor team.  In the Fiesta Bowl against 6-5 Michigan, BYU had to rally from behind to win by seven.  Quarterback Robbie Bosco continuing to play while injured made for a great copy, but this year’s BYU team might beat that one.  They were not deserving of the title that year, as Washington was the real best team in 1984.

1998–Tulane

The Green Wave finished #7 in the final polls with a dominant offense and average defense.  TU defeated BYU in the Liberty Bowl but defeated no ranked teams.  The 1998 Green Wave was not in this year’s Cincinnati’s class.

1999–Marshall

The Thundering Herd played in the MAC for a few years, and in 1999, they went 13-0 and finished 10th in the final polls behind future NFL QB Chad Pennington.  All the Herd could manage to earn was a Motor City Bowl game, where they beat BYU.  While Marshall defeated Clemson in the regular season, that CU team went just 6-6 and fired their coach.

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