Are we maybe on to something? Well, maybe, we are on to a minor something. Three straight winning weeks but just minor victories are maybe the equivalent of winning three straight football games by less than a touchdown; we’re 3-0, but the pollsters aren’t going to award us for the wins. We’re the Oklahoma of the current Playoff Rankings.
For the year, our imaginary bank account is in positive territory by 5.607%. On $4,000 in imaginary funds, we have had a return of $4,224.28.
Our big wins last week included picking Michigan State to win outright over Michigan, and then hitting on a nice parlay at +250 with Utah State beating Hawaii and San Jose St. topping Wyoming. The Group of 5 conferences have returned slightly better on our investment than the Power 5 conferences, and we chalk that up to the numbers not being as perfect on these games due to lack of action by the masses. Now that wagering is legal for several million people, it’s like 50 more Las Vegas’s were created overnight, and these millions want to wager on the Alabama’s, the Georgia’s, the Ohio State’s, and the Oregon’s. The Mid-American Conference, and The Mountain West Conference–Not so much. While we cannot wager on MAC games now that they are playing their midweek November schedules, and this feature comes out very late on Wednesday, we have other G5 games to consider.
Before getting to the five selections we have made this week, let us answer a couple of questions we have received this year concerning this feature.
Q. How do you determine your odds when you bet on these games, or pretend to?
A. Good question. We have seven different online sites that list multiple sports books’ odds. All told, we monitor 23 different sports books looking for the best odds. We isolate on those games where we believe the Money Line odds are slightly off just enough to add 5% or more of the total potential payout if we win. So, if most of the books show State at -150, but Big Boy Bets has it at -145, we take advantage of the benefit. Combine two or more of these, and instead of a payout of +130, we might get +150. That’s a big difference and can lead to a profit instead of a loss.
Once we have chosen the games we want, we then try to arrange them in parlays where the odds are much better than Even Money. Let’s say we have State at -200 and Tech at -150 and wish to combine them into a parlay. Now, there is an easy way if you don’t want to do the math. Simply go online to a handicapping site that offers free parlay calculators. But, being math nerds here on the PiRate ship, we like to show you how to do it yourself. It isn’t that hard; a calculator is all you need. There are three easy steps.
Step 1: Take the odds of the two games and divide 100 by each and then add one. (100/200) + 1 = 1.5. (100/150)+1 = 1.667.
Step 2: Multiply the two results. 1.5*1.667 = 2.50.
Step 3: Subtract 1 from step 2 and multiply by 100. (2.50-1)*100 = 150
The parlay odd on this 2-game combo is +150. If we wager $100 and win the parlay, we will receive $250 back (The $150 + our $100 investment).
Q. Last week, you had a parlay that I could not replicate in any way, involving Central Florida over Temple and Kansas State over TCU. You showed +348.93. How did you get that number?
A. We received nine notifications about this. If you looked back later that day, you discovered what we did wrong. We chopped off one part of the parlay. Rice was the third game in that parlay. Nevertheless, it lost. That was a typing error on our part, and we are sorry.
Q. Why do you always mention that we should not take your parlay choices as advice and not to wager on them unless we already have prior research that your picks justify? How could we possibly know in advance which games you will pick? The chances of picking the same parlay are about like hitting the lottery.
A. Here’s where we are coming from. We are old PiRates. We don’t have a ton of disposable income to throw away and give to billionaires. We already do that when we buy a bar of soap, toothpaste, or gasoline for the car. Why give up any more? Additionally, if we actually had real money involved in this procedure, we would be too hesitant to ever make even one pick. We’d find something wrong with every potential selection. So, we’d never release even one parlay to you. By making sure you know that we wager $0 on our selections, you know that we have no worries about the games. We hope you join us in having no worries.
If you can take our picks and do something with them, then it is up to you to determine how you will use this information. We know there are two different groups that monitor our ratings and make selections based on how the three ratings differ.
Without further adieu, here are this week’s picks.
| Date: | November 4-6 |
| Odds: | +182.86 |
| Must Win | Opponent |
| Louisiana | Georgia St. |
| Penn St. | Maryland |
| New Mexico | UNLV |
| Odds: | +178.57 |
| Must Win | Opponent |
| Nevada | San Jose St. |
| Iowa St. | Texas |
| Fresno St. | Boise St. |
| Odds: | +160 |
| Must Win | Opponent |
| Wyoming | Colorado St. |
| Odds: | +158.63 |
| Must Win | Opponent |
| North Texas | Southern Miss. |
| Michigan St. | Purdue |
| Odds: | +135.34 |
| Must Win | Opponent |
| Utah | Stanford |
| Oregon | Washington |
| Miami (Fla.) | Georgia Tech |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 