PiRate Ratings College Football–November 2-6, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	4.5	5.5	6.1
Akron	Ball St.	-18.7	-19.8	-18.9
Ohio U	Miami (O)	-11.4	-8.8	-8.3
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	2.5	5.4	4.2
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	1.3	3.0	2.2
Louisiana	Georgia St.	18.0	17.2	18.2
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-0.6	0.3	0.3
Stanford	Utah	-8.0	-7.6	-8.4
Air Force (n)	Army	0.6	1.0	1.8
Duke	Pittsburgh	-20.6	-20.5	-22.0
Florida St.	North Caroina St.	-3.7	-3.1	-3.4
Miami (Fla.)	Georgia Tech	13.8	12.9	14.0
Rutgers	Wisconsin	-13.9	-12.0	-14.7
Louisville	Clemson	-6.3	-6.4	-6.1
UAB	Louisiana Tech	15.3	15.3	17.0
Northwestern	Iowa	-15.3	-14.6	-16.7
South Florida	Houston	-13.0	-12.6	-13.3
Michigan	Indiana	14.4	15.6	15.3
North Carolina	Wake Forest	-0.2	0.1	0.7
Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina	-21.6	-19.6	-21.7
Central Florida	Tulane	11.4	11.4	12.4
Minnesota	Illinois	17.4	17.9	18.7
Cincinnati	Tulsa	28.0	27.6	29.9
Kansas	Kansas St.	-26.6	-28.5	-30.7
South Carolina	Florida	-15.1	-16.4	-16.5
East Carolina	Temple	24.3	22.7	25.3
Ole Miss	Liberty	16.7	15.9	16.2
TCU	Baylor	-1.8	-2.7	-2.2
Maryland	Penn St.	-8.4	-10.4	-12.6
New Mexico St.	Utah St.	-17.3	-17.5	-19.0
Colorado	Oregon St.	-7.2	-7.7	-8.2
Arizona St.	USC	3.3	4.2	3.5
Southern Miss.	North Texas	-2.3	-1.8	-2.4
Georgia	Missouri	37.7	38.1	40.2
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	-17.6	-17.0	-19.8
Nebraska	Ohio St.	-18.1	-17.7	-18.9
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	6.5	6.0	5.8
Memphis	SMU	-8.2	-8.1	-8.0
Notre Dame	Navy	27.3	28.3	28.4
Troy	South Alabama	2.4	2.5	3.4
Charlotte	Rice	-1.3	-0.1	0.5
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	1.4	0.2	0.1
Kentucky	Tennessee	4.3	6.0	4.8
Texas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	4.9	3.0	4.4
Iowa St.	Texas	6.5	6.7	7.0
Purdue	Michigan St.	-0.5	-0.8	1.0
Texas A&M	Auburn	3.1	4.3	3.1
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	3.1	4.5	3.9
Washington	Oregon	-4.8	-4.8	-6.2
Arizona	California	-7.6	-11.4	-10.6
Wyoming	Colorado St.	-1.4	-1.0	-0.9
UTEP	UTSA	-14.4	-13.8	-15.2
Florida Atlantic	Marshall	0.5	1.7	0.3
Fresno St.	Boise St.	1.9	3.2	3.3
New Mexico	UNLV	1.4	2.2	0.4
Florida Int’l.	Old Domimion	1.7	1.3	1.6
Alabama	LSU	24.9	23.4	24.9
Nevada	San Jose St.	10.4	11.6	12.6
Hawaii	San Diego St.	-6.6	-6.6	-6.7

FBS vs. FCS Games
FBS	FCS	PiRate
BYU	Idaho St.	35.0
Massachusetts	Rhode Island	4.1

BYES

Bowling Green

Buffalo

Connecticut

Oklahoma

Syracuse

Texas Tech

UCLA

Vanderbilt

Virginia

Washington St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	135.2
2	Alabama	131.9
3	Ohio St.	130.0
4	Oklahoma	122.1
5	Cincinnati	119.7
6	Iowa St.	118.9
7	Texas A&M	118.9
8	Auburn	118.4
9	Florida	116.4
10	Ole Miss	116.2
11	Penn St.	115.3
12	Oklahoma St.	115.2
13	Texas	115.1
14	Notre Dame	115.0
15	Utah	114.9
16	Michigan	114.4
17	Wisconsin	113.8
18	Iowa	113.8
19	Clemson	113.4
20	Arkansas	113.3
21	Oregon	112.9
22	Baylor	112.8
23	West Virginia	112.7
24	Wake Forest	111.9
25	NC State	111.4
26	Kentucky	111.1
27	Michigan St.	110.8
28	L S U	110.5
29	Minnesota	110.5
30	Miami (Fla.)	110.3
31	Mississippi St.	110.2
32	North Carolina	110.1
33	Arizona St.	110.0
34	Pittsburgh	109.9
35	Coastal Carolina	109.7
36	U S C	109.4
37	Kansas St.	109.3
38	Louisiana	109.2
39	Tennessee	109.1
40	BYU	109.0
41	Oregon St.	108.8
42	Nebraska	108.8
43	U C L A	108.5
44	T C U	108.5
45	Purdue	107.7
46	Washington	107.4
47	Virginia	105.6
48	Florida St.	105.0
49	Washington St.	104.6
50	Appalachian St.	104.5
51	Houston	104.4
52	Louisville	104.1
53	SMU	104.1
54	California	103.9
55	Stanford	103.9
56	Boise St.	103.8
57	Fresno St.	103.6
58	Nevada	103.1
59	Virginia Tech	103.0
60	Liberty	102.9
61	UCF	102.3
62	Indiana	102.3
63	Maryland	101.8
64	U T S A	101.8
65	Texas Tech	101.5
66	Syracuse	101.5
67	San Diego St.	101.4
68	Air Force	101.4
69	Army	100.3
70	Boston College	100.0
71	Georgia Tech	99.8
72	Missouri	99.5
73	East Carolina	98.8
74	Colorado	98.1
75	Miami (Ohio)	98.0
76	Toledo	97.7
77	South Carolina	97.4
78	Rutgers	97.3
79	U A B	96.5
80	Ball St.	96.5
81	Marshall	96.2
82	Northwestern	95.7
83	Illinois	95.5
84	Eastern Michigan	94.8
85	Western Michigan	94.7
86	Colorado St.	94.6
87	Central Michigan	94.5
88	Tulsa	94.2
89	San Jose St.	94.0
90	Florida Atlantic	94.0
91	Georgia St.	93.8
92	Tulane	93.6
93	Memphis	93.5
94	Utah St.	92.7
95	Troy	92.5
96	Western Kentucky	92.1
97	Buffalo	91.9
98	South Alabama	91.8
99	Kent St.	91.5
100	Arizona	91.0
101	Hawaii	90.8
102	Middle Tennessee	90.7
103	Wyoming	90.5
104	Navy	90.0
105	Northern Illinois	90.0
106	USF	88.9
107	Ohio	86.5
108	Georgia Southern	86.2
109	Duke	85.9
110	U T E P	84.8
111	Arkansas St.	83.9
112	U N L V	83.7
113	Louisiana Tech	83.2
114	New Mexico	82.6
115	Texas St.	81.5
116	Rice	81.5
117	North Texas	80.6
118	Vanderbilt	80.1
119	UL-Monroe	80.0
120	Kansas	79.2
121	Charlotte	78.7
122	Temple	77.7
123	Old Dominion	76.5
124	Bowling Green	76.1
125	Southern Miss.	76.0
126	Florida Int’l.	75.6
127	Akron	74.8
128	New Mexico St.	72.2
129	Connecticut	68.5
130	UMass	67.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.4	118.8	121.0	119.7
Houston	104.5	103.6	105.0	104.4
SMU	103.8	104.0	104.5	104.1
UCF	102.1	101.0	104.0	102.3
East Carolina	98.5	98.1	99.8	98.8
Tulsa	94.4	94.2	94.0	94.2
Tulane	93.7	92.5	94.5	93.6
Memphis	93.1	93.4	94.0	93.5
Navy	89.9	89.7	90.5	90.0
USF	89.0	88.5	89.2	88.9
Temple	77.3	78.4	77.5	77.7
AAC Averages	96.9	96.6	97.6	97.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	113.1	113.0	114.1	113.4
Wake Forest	111.8	111.5	112.3	111.9
NC State	111.4	111.1	111.7	111.4
Florida St.	104.7	105.0	105.3	105.0
Louisville	103.8	103.6	105.0	104.1
Syracuse	101.3	101.6	101.6	101.5
Boston College	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	110.6	109.8	110.7	110.3
North Carolina	109.6	109.6	111.0	110.1
Pittsburgh	109.6	110.2	110.0	109.9
Virginia	105.3	106.2	105.2	105.6
Virginia Tech	103.6	102.7	102.7	103.0
Georgia Tech	99.8	99.9	99.7	99.8
Duke	86.0	86.7	85.0	85.9
ACC Averages	105.0	105.1	105.3	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	123.0	121.3	122.1	122.1
Iowa St.	119.6	118.1	118.9	118.9
Oklahoma St.	115.5	115.2	114.9	115.2
Texas	116.1	114.4	114.9	115.1
Baylor	113.2	112.7	112.4	112.8
West Virginia	114.0	112.4	111.9	112.7
Kansas St.	109.6	109.3	108.9	109.3
T C U	109.4	108.0	108.2	108.5
Texas Tech	101.9	101.9	100.8	101.5
Kansas	81.5	79.3	76.8	79.2
Big 12 Averages	110.4	109.3	109.0	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	129.5	129.4	131.0	130.0
Penn St.	114.2	114.9	116.7	115.3
Michigan	113.8	114.6	114.8	114.4
Michigan St.	110.6	110.8	111.0	110.8
Indiana	102.3	102.0	102.5	102.3
Maryland	102.8	101.5	101.1	101.8
Rutgers	96.4	98.2	97.1	97.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	113.3	113.2	114.8	113.8
Iowa	113.5	113.1	114.7	113.8
Minnesota	109.6	110.4	111.5	110.5
Nebraska	108.5	108.7	109.1	108.8
Purdue	107.1	107.0	109.0	107.7
Northwestern	95.7	96.0	95.5	95.7
Illinois	95.2	95.5	95.8	95.5
Big Ten Averages	108.0	108.3	108.9	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	95.9	96.0	96.7	96.2
Florida Atlantic	93.4	94.6	94.0	94.0
Western Kentucky	90.9	92.5	92.8	92.1
Middle Tennessee	90.3	90.5	91.4	90.7
Charlotte	77.9	78.9	79.4	78.7
Old Dominion	76.0	76.8	76.8	76.5
Florida Int’l.	75.2	75.6	75.9	75.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	101.4	102.1	101.9	101.8
U A B	96.4	96.6	96.6	96.5
U T E P	84.5	85.7	84.1	84.8
Louisiana Tech	83.6	83.8	82.1	83.2
Rice	81.6	81.5	81.4	81.5
North Texas	80.6	80.7	80.6	80.6
Southern Miss.	75.8	76.4	75.7	76.0
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.5	86.4	86.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	114.2	114.9	115.9	115.0
BYU	109.1	108.7	109.3	109.0
Liberty	102.6	103.1	103.1	102.9
Army	100.4	100.3	100.1	100.3
New Mexico St.	72.5	73.2	71.0	72.2
Connecticut	69.1	69.6	66.9	68.5
UMass	68.9	68.3	66.2	67.8
Indep. Averages	91.0	91.2	90.4	90.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.5	97.8	96.8	98.0
Buffalo	92.6	91.7	91.5	91.9
Kent St.	91.2	92.5	90.9	91.5
Ohio	86.1	87.0	86.5	86.5
Bowling Green	76.6	76.8	74.8	76.1
Akron	76.2	74.7	73.7	74.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	98.2	97.8	97.1	97.7
Ball St.	97.3	97.0	95.1	96.5
Eastern Michigan	96.2	94.8	93.5	94.8
Western Michigan	94.8	95.2	93.9	94.7
Central Michigan	95.6	94.2	93.7	94.5
Northern Illinois	91.1	89.7	89.2	90.0
MAC Averages	91.3	90.8	89.7	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.5	103.5	104.3	103.8
Air Force	101.1	101.3	101.9	101.4
Colorado St.	94.5	94.5	94.7	94.6
Utah St.	92.3	93.1	92.6	92.7
Wyoming	90.1	90.5	90.8	90.5
New Mexico	83.0	83.1	81.6	82.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	102.5	103.8	104.7	103.6
Nevada	102.4	103.7	103.1	103.1
San Diego St.	101.7	101.4	101.2	101.4
San Jose St.	94.5	94.5	93.1	94.0
Hawaii	91.1	90.8	90.5	90.8
U N L V	84.1	83.4	83.8	83.7
MWC Averages	95.1	95.3	95.2	95.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.9	113.0	113.8	112.9
Oregon St.	108.6	108.9	109.0	108.8
Washington	106.6	107.8	107.8	107.4
Washington St.	104.1	105.1	104.6	104.6
California	101.9	105.3	104.7	103.9
Stanford	103.7	104.4	103.6	103.9
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	114.8	115.0	115.0	114.9
Arizona St.	109.6	110.2	110.3	110.0
U S C	109.2	109.0	109.8	109.4
U C L A	108.3	108.6	108.7	108.5
Colorado	98.4	98.2	97.7	98.1
Arizona	91.2	90.9	91.0	91.0
Pac-12 Averages	105.7	106.4	106.3	106.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	134.6	135.0	136.0	135.2
Florida	115.9	117.0	116.4	116.4
Kentucky	110.4	111.8	111.1	111.1
Tennessee	109.1	108.8	109.3	109.1
Missouri	99.8	99.9	98.8	99.5
South Carolina	97.9	97.5	96.9	97.4
Vanderbilt	80.6	80.1	79.6	80.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.9	131.2	132.7	131.9
Texas A&M	118.5	119.2	118.9	118.9
Auburn	118.4	117.9	118.9	118.4
Ole Miss	116.2	116.0	116.3	116.2
Arkansas	113.5	113.4	113.0	113.3
L S U	110.0	110.8	110.8	110.5
Mississippi St.	110.0	110.4	110.2	110.2
SEC Averages	111.9	112.1	112.1	112.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	110.3	108.6	110.1	109.7
Appalachian St.	104.1	103.8	105.6	104.5
Georgia St.	94.2	93.5	93.8	93.8
Troy	92.4	92.5	92.7	92.5
Georgia Southern	86.3	86.6	85.9	86.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.7	108.3	109.6	109.2
South Alabama	92.0	92.0	91.3	91.8
Arkansas St.	84.1	84.3	83.3	83.9
Texas St.	82.7	80.8	81.1	81.5
UL-Monroe	80.3	80.3	79.2	80.0
Sun Averages	93.6	93.1	93.3	93.3

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.0
2	Big 12	109.5
3	Big Ten	108.4
4	Pac-12	106.1
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	97.0
7	Mountain West	95.2
8	Sun Belt	93.3
9	Independents	90.8
10	Mid-American	90.6
11	Conference USA	86.3

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Western Kentucky	Eastern Michigan
Cure	Memphis	Georgia St.
Boca	Coastal Carolina	Florida Atlantic
New Mexico	Air Force	UTEP
Independence	BYU	Marshall
Lending Tree	Western Michigan	UL-Monroe
L. A.	San Diego St.	UCLA
New Orleans	UTSA	Louisiana
Myrtle Beach	Liberty	Central Michigan
Famous Idaho Potato	Miami (O)	Boise St.
Frisco	Nevada	UAB
Armed Forces	Army	Washington St.
Gasparilla	SMU	California
Hawaii	Houston	Fresno St.
Camellia	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
Quick Lane	Kent St.	Rutgers
Military	Miami (Fla.)	East Carolina
Birmingham	Middle Tennesee	Ball St.
First Responder	Wyoming	San Jose St.
Liberty	Texas	Auburn
Holiday	Virginia Tech	Arizona St.
Guaranteed Rate	Purdue	West Virginia
Fenway	Virginia	Central Florida
Pinstripe	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Cheez-It	Pittsburgh	Iowa St.
Alamo	Baylor	Washington
Duke’s Mayo	North Carolina St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	Iowa	Tennessee
Las Vegas	Penn St.	Oregon St.
Tax Slayer Gator	Clemson	Arkansas
Tony The Tiger Sun	Louisville	USC
Arizona	Toledo	Utah St.
Citrus	Michigan	Ole Miss
Outback	Minnesota	Florida
Texas	Kansas St.	Texas A&M
Peach	Wake Forest	Kentucky
Fiesta	Notre Dame	Utah
Rose	Oregon	Michigan St.
Sugar	Alabama	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
Orange	Georgia	Cincinnati
Championship	Georgia	Oklahoma

The First FBS Playoff Ratings Debut Tuesday

The NCAA FBS Playoff Committee releases its first playoff rankings Tuesday night. We expect the first release will have Georgia at number one, and then in either Oklahoma and Alabama at #2 and #3 or vice versa. The fourth spot is the mystery. Will it be Cincinnati? What about the Ohio State/Oregon situation, where the Ducks beat the Buckeyes at the Giant Horseshoe? Then, how will they count Michigan State and Wake Forest, both undefeated Power 5 teams?

If you look at our playoff predictions, you will see Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio St., and Cincinnati for now. Our projections are forward looking, so for now, we call for Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and the Playoff Committee unable to find a loophole to place a 2-loss team in the Playoffs with undefeated teams left out. As for Michigan State, they still have to beat Penn State, Ohio State, and either Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big Ten Championship Game. Wake Forest has to win at Clemson and in the ACC Championship Game. They even face a trap game this week at North Carolina.

For now, we are calling for Cincinnati to win the AAC Championship Game and finish 13-0, but there are two games they will have to win where they could face trouble. Houston may split two games with the Bearcats, and at 12-1, Cinti won’t make the field.

If Ohio State and Oregon both win out, and are both 12-1, both could make the field, if Cincinnati loses. The big wildcard is what happens if Alabama wins out and knocks off Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama and Georgia would both make the playoffs, and Oklahoma would be number three, assuming they don’t lose to Baylor or Oklahoma State.

In the past, it comes down to six teams by the time the official four are named. There are four more weeks of regular season football to be played, and probably three of the contenders are going to play themselves out of contention before the Conference Championship Games are played.

If you ask us today who the four best teams in college football are, regardless of their won-loss record, we might go with Georgia at number one, Alabama at number two, Oklahoma at number three, and Oregon at number four. And, if the Committee picks these four teams Tuesday night, we will endorse their picks.