The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 23-25, 2021

Filed under: Uncategorized — piratings @ 10:39 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Marshall9.59.311.3
CharlotteMiddle Tennessee-3.6-2.3-3.4
VirginiaWake Forest-1.01.9-1.1
SyracuseLiberty-6.5-7.9-9.5
Fresno St.UNLV19.222.623.2
MinnesotaBowling Green38.038.742.3
South CarolinaKentucky-1.8-3.9-2.3
Wisconsin (n)Notre Dame5.34.15.5
Ball St.Toledo0.40.6-1.2
Western MichiganSan Jose St.-5.7-5.3-5.0
Eastern MichiganTexas St.8.49.16.9
MarylandKent St.20.116.617.6
PurdueIllinois15.514.716.1
Coastal CarolinaMassachusetts38.336.342.0
Central MichiganFlorida Int’l.23.521.621.1
ArmyMiami (O)5.17.68.4
Ohio St.Akron42.144.147.1
Georgia SouthernLouisiana-20.3-18.0-21.5
Utah St.Boise St.-10.3-8.7-11.0
DukeKansas8.512.313.2
Boston CollegeMissouri0.90.71.6
NorthwesternOhio U17.015.415.2
Georgia TechNorth Carolina-15.2-15.5-18.2
IowaColorado St.30.930.532.7
Western KentuckyIndiana-23.0-21.0-22.9
Air ForceFlorida Atlantic7.15.06.3
UtahWashington St.15.815.115.9
New Mexico St.Hawaii-19.4-17.9-21.0
BYUSouth Florida25.225.826.6
Arizona St.Colorado10.611.712.4
StanfordUCLA-2.2-1.5-3.0
USCOregon St.12.512.613.9
Florida St.Louisville0.10.6-1.2
Oklahoma St.Kansas St.5.95.35.4
AlabamaSouthern Miss.51.548.951.8
VanderbiltGeorgia-39.4-40.3-42.3
HoustonNavy20.019.420.9
OklahomaWest Virginia15.114.716.9
Mississippi St.LSU-2.0-3.0-4.1
ConnecticutWyoming-28.5-28.3-33.0
TulaneUAB6.25.28.0
TexasTexas Tech16.914.216.3
MemphisUTSA0.60.92.6
TCUSMU20.017.818.9
Texas A&M (n)Arkansas4.85.86.4
BaylorIowa St.-10.8-9.6-12.7
FloridaTennessee18.020.318.8
North Carolina St.Clemson-6.1-7.3-9.4
Michigan St.Nebraska6.55.75.5
MichiganRutgers14.513.415.1
Louisiana-MonroeTroy-17.2-17.4-20.3
AuburnGeorgia St.28.828.529.5
TulsaArkansas St.15.715.116.7
Old DominionBuffalo-24.1-22.3-23.0
Louisiana TechNorth Texas12.013.111.8
UTEPNew Mexico-6.0-5.6-6.9
WashingtonCalifornia14.511.613.3
OregonArizona23.825.927.7

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
Penn St.Villanova34.9
Virginia TechRichmond30.7
PittsburghNew Hampshire29.1
TempleWagner26.9
Miami (Fla.)Central Connecticut36.0
Northern IllinoisMaine22.9
San Diego St.Towson28.0
East CarolinaCharleston Sou.25.0
RiceTexas Southern20.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama130.9
2Georgia128.7
3Oklahoma125.2
4Iowa St.121.8
5Cincinnati120.3
6Clemson119.2
7Florida118.9
8Ohio St.118.8
9Texas A&M118.1
10North Carolina118.1
11Auburn117.7
12Ole Miss117.6
13U S C117.5
14Iowa117.4
15Penn St.116.6
16Texas116.3
17Wisconsin114.7
18T C U114.4
19Oregon113.7
20Arkansas113.0
21L S U112.7
22West Virginia112.6
23Michigan112.1
24BYU111.1
25Arizona St.111.0
26Indiana111.0
27U C L A110.8
28Miami (Fla.)110.1
29Utah110.1
30Notre Dame109.7
31Minnesota109.5
32Oklahoma St.109.5
33Washington109.4
34Maryland109.3
35Michigan St.109.1
36Coastal Carolina108.8
37NC State108.5
38Wake Forest108.3
39Louisiana108.1
40Baylor107.8
41Oregon St.107.5
42Kentucky107.3
43Purdue107.2
44Virginia Tech107.1
45Kansas St.106.9
46Mississippi St.106.6
47Missouri106.6
48Liberty106.3
49Nebraska106.2
50Stanford105.6
51Virginia105.2
52Boston College104.7
53Boise St.104.3
54Texas Tech103.5
55Appalachian St.103.0
56Tennessee102.9
57UCF102.5
58Colorado102.4
59Army102.3
60Louisville102.2
61Fresno St.101.9
62Houston101.7
63South Carolina101.6
64Pittsburgh101.6
65San Diego St.101.5
66Rutgers100.7
67San Jose St.100.5
68Wyoming100.5
69Northwestern100.1
70Tulane100.0
71Florida St.99.5
72California99.3
73Tulsa99.1
74Central Michigan99.1
75Nevada99.1
76Georgia Tech98.8
77Miami (Ohio)98.3
78Buffalo97.9
79Washington St.97.5
80SMU97.0
81U T S A96.9
82U A B96.6
83Marshall96.0
84Air Force95.7
85Troy95.6
86Memphis95.3
87East Carolina95.3
88Syracuse95.3
89Illinois94.7
90Kent St.94.2
91Toledo94.0
92Hawaii93.1
93Florida Atlantic92.6
94Western Michigan92.1
95Ball St.92.0
96Georgia St.91.7
97Utah St.91.3
98Eastern Michigan90.9
99Arizona90.9
100South Alabama90.9
101Duke90.4
102Colorado St.89.0
103Louisiana Tech89.0
104USF88.3
105Ohio86.7
106Vanderbilt86.6
107Arkansas St.86.3
108Western Kentucky86.2
109Middle Tennessee86.0
110Northern Illinois86.0
111Texas St.85.8
112Georgia Southern85.2
113New Mexico84.8
114Navy84.6
115U N L V83.3
116Southern Miss.83.2
117Kansas82.1
118Rice82.0
119Charlotte80.9
120Temple80.5
121Florida Int’l.80.0
122North Texas79.7
123U T E P76.6
124Akron75.9
125UL-Monroe75.4
126UMass72.9
127Bowling Green72.8
128Old Dominion72.8
129New Mexico St.69.6
130Connecticut67.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati120.0119.2121.8120.3
UCF102.2101.1104.2102.5
Houston102.1100.7102.4101.7
Tulane100.098.7101.4100.0
Tulsa99.099.399.099.1
SMU96.497.397.297.0
Memphis94.595.296.395.3
East Carolina95.394.696.095.3
USF88.787.888.488.3
Navy85.184.384.584.6
Temple79.781.280.580.5

AAC Averages96.696.397.496.8


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson118.1118.5120.8119.2
NC State109.0108.2108.4108.5
Wake Forest108.5107.5108.8108.3
Boston College104.4104.8104.8104.7
Louisville101.8101.4103.3102.2
Florida St.99.499.699.699.5
Syracuse95.895.694.695.3

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina117.1117.4119.9118.1
Miami (Fla.)110.6109.3110.6110.1
Virginia Tech108.0106.7106.7107.1
Virginia104.5106.3104.7105.2
Pittsburgh101.4102.2101.4101.6
Georgia Tech98.998.998.798.8
Duke90.391.689.490.4

ACC Averages104.8104.9105.1104.9


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma126.4123.9125.2125.2
Iowa St.122.2120.5122.6121.8
Texas117.2115.4116.3116.3
T C U114.9113.6114.6114.4
West Virginia114.3112.3111.3112.6
Oklahoma St.110.0109.6108.8109.5
Baylor108.5108.0106.9107.8
Kansas St.107.1107.3106.3106.9
Texas Tech103.3104.2103.0103.5
Kansas84.882.379.382.1

Big 12 Averages110.9109.7109.4110.0

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.118.2118.3119.9118.8
Penn St.115.3116.3118.0116.6
Michigan111.3112.3112.6112.1
Indiana110.7110.4111.8111.0
Maryland110.7109.1108.1109.3
Michigan St.109.4109.0109.0109.1
Rutgers99.7101.9100.5100.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa116.9116.5118.9117.4
Wisconsin114.1114.0116.0114.7
Minnesota108.4109.5110.7109.5
Purdue107.0106.5108.0107.2
Nebraska105.9106.3106.5106.2
Northwestern100.3100.299.7100.1
Illinois94.594.894.994.7

Big Ten Averages108.7109.0109.6109.1


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.095.896.396.0
Florida Atlantic91.593.492.892.6
Western Kentucky85.287.086.486.2
Middle Tennessee85.785.586.986.0
Charlotte80.281.181.580.9
Florida Int’l.79.380.080.880.0
Old Dominion72.373.172.972.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A96.897.496.796.9
U A B96.896.696.496.6
Louisiana Tech89.189.888.089.0
Southern Miss.82.583.983.183.2
Rice82.181.882.082.0
North Texas80.179.779.279.7
U T E P77.077.775.176.6

CUSA Averages85.385.985.685.6


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
BYU110.9110.5112.0111.1
Notre Dame108.8109.9110.5109.7
Liberty105.3106.4107.1106.3
Army102.2102.4102.3102.3
UMass74.373.670.972.9
New Mexico St.70.070.868.069.6
Connecticut68.169.165.467.5

Indep. Averages91.491.890.991.4


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)100.197.897.098.3
Buffalo98.497.497.997.9
Kent St.93.795.593.594.2
Ohio85.887.487.086.7
Akron77.775.774.375.9
Bowling Green73.473.871.372.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan99.898.698.999.1
Toledo94.694.193.494.0
Western Michigan92.292.791.492.1
Ball St.92.992.890.292.0
Eastern Michigan92.690.989.290.9
Northern Illinois87.485.685.086.0

MAC Averages90.790.289.190.0


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.3103.8104.8104.3
Wyoming99.7100.3101.4100.5
Air Force95.695.596.195.7
Utah St.91.092.190.991.3
Colorado St.89.088.989.289.0
New Mexico85.085.384.084.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.100.3102.3103.3101.9
San Diego St.101.8101.3101.4101.5
San Jose St.100.9101.099.5100.5
Nevada98.6100.098.799.1
Hawaii93.492.793.093.1
U N L V84.182.783.183.3

MWC Averages95.395.595.495.4


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon112.3113.6115.2113.7
Washington108.4109.8110.1109.4
Oregon St.107.4107.3107.7107.5
Stanford105.2106.3105.2105.6
California96.9101.299.899.3
Washington St.97.598.197.097.5

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C116.9116.9118.5117.5
Arizona St.110.6111.2111.3111.0
U C L A110.5110.8111.1110.8
Utah110.3110.2109.9110.1
Colorado102.9102.5101.9102.4
Arizona91.590.790.590.9

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.5106.5106.3


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia128.2128.2129.9128.7
Florida118.1119.8118.9118.9
Kentucky106.7108.5106.8107.3
Missouri106.5107.2106.2106.6
Tennessee103.1102.4103.1102.9
South Carolina101.9101.6101.5101.6
Vanderbilt87.286.486.186.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.0129.8131.9130.9
Texas A&M117.6118.5118.2118.1
Auburn118.0116.9118.1117.7
Ole Miss117.3117.4117.9117.6
Arkansas113.3113.2112.3113.0
L S U111.8112.9113.3112.7
Mississippi St.106.8106.9106.2106.6

SEC Averages112.0112.1112.2112.1


Sunbelt Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.6106.9109.8108.8
Appalachian St.102.4102.1104.6103.0
Troy95.295.796.095.6
Georgia St.92.291.491.591.7
Georgia Southern85.485.784.685.2

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.7106.7109.1108.1
South Alabama91.291.390.290.9
Arkansas St.86.387.285.486.3
Texas St.87.184.985.485.8
UL-Monroe76.076.373.775.4

Sun Averages93.492.893.093.1

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.1
2Big 12110.0
3Big Ten109.1
4Pac-12106.3
5Atlantic Coast104.9
6American Athletic96.8
7Mountain West95.4
8Sun Belt93.1
9Independents91.4
10Mid-American90.0
11Conference USA85.6

The Big 12 Conference May Stay Big

The departures of Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12 Conference to the Southeastern Conference was supposed to be the death knell of the Big 12. The planned addition of BYU, Cincinnati ,Central Florida, and Houston supposedly would make the league just another Group of 5 type of conference. How could this new Big 12 compete with the ACC or Pac-12 without the Sooners and Longhorns?

The joke may be on the ACC and Pac-12, because if we remove Oklahoma and Texas and place BYU, UCF, Cinti, and Houston in the Big 12 this week, the cumulative PiRate Rating average for the league would be 107.8. Where does this place the future Big 12 in the overall conference ratings? It puts the league in third place behind the SEC and Big Ten. The SEC improves by 1.1 point with the Sooners and Longhorns added, while the Big 12 drops just 2.2 points by dropping UT and OU and picking up the future four additions.

This is more about how weak the ACC and Pac-12 appear to be this year. Clemson does not warrant Playoff consideration at this point, barely defeating a weak Georgia Tech team yesterday. North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech, which lost to Big 12 middle of the pack team West Virginia. North Carolina State lost to a Mississippi State team that lost at Memphis. Unless Wake Forest or Boston College runs the table, the ACC doesn’t look playoff-worthy this season.

Oregon absolutely must run the table in the weak Pac-12 to have a chance to make the Playoffs. If Ohio State ends up falling back in the pack in the Big Ten, then the Ducks’ win at the Horseshoe will lose its luster. UCLA’s losing at home to Fresno State, while San Diego State knocked off Utah, and Nevada having beat Cal earlier in the season, plus BYU knocking off Arizona State, plus Colorado losing at home to Minnesota 30-0, and then a terrible Arizona team losing to Northern Arizona to extend their losing streak to 15 games, it makes a 13-0 team’s resume look less worthy than any 1-loss team from the SEC, Big Ten, or even Big 12.

The conferences that are aligning to stop the SEC’s domination think that by dragging their feet on playoff expansion, that will prevent up to four SEC teams from getting Playoff bids. They better realize that without expansion, their conferences may not receive any bids for several years. Today, at least three of the top four teams are SEC teams, and if you add Oklahoma to the SEC, then the top four are SEC teams. Expanding to 12 teams and then giving automatic bids to the Power 5 Conference champions may be the only real hope that the Pac-12 will get a team in the Playoffs.

Answering A Question We Get Every Year

We are fortunate to gain new subscribers and casual onlookers to this site every year, and when the newcomers comment, the most frequent question goes something like this: “Why do you rank State 7 places ahead of Tech, when Tech just beat State by 10 points?”

The short answer to that is that we do not RANK teams. We RATE teams. Our ratings are predictive and not retrodictive. Retrodictive rankings and ratings judge teams on what they have done so far. These systems are excellent for determining which teams are most deserving to play in the College Football Playoffs, and in basketball, they are great to determine which teams deserve at-large bids as opposed to NIT bids.

The PiRate Ratings attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week’s games. If Tech beat State by 10 points earlier this year, our ratings may show that State should be Tech by 10 points if they were to play this week. Pro football fans tend to get this principle more than strictly college fans. If the Chiefs lose by three at the Chargers in October, the expectation in December may be that the Chiefs will win by double digits in the rematch. Predictive ratings would probably show the Chiefs to be a touchdown better than LAC, but retrodictive ratings might show the opposite.

This Week’s TV Fare

There are some interesting games on the Tube this week, and if you feel the first cold air of Autumn, this might be a great Saturday afternoon for a hearty stew and a blanket as you veg out on the sofa. The evening games are just after dinner salads for the afternoon banquet. Here are our recommended choices.

All Times Eastern Daylight

12 PM

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin on Fox: This game takes place on a neutral field at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Fighting Irish don’t appear to be as strong as last year, but they are undefeated and need a quality win, after Florida State and Toledo look awful, and the win over Purdue was only so-so. Meanwhile, UW got an extra week to prepare for this game, and the loss to Penn State doesn’t look as bad now that the Nittany Lions beat Auburn.

Texas vs. Texas Tech on ABC: This game looked like an easy win for the Longhorns back in August, but it looks more like a potential tossup now. Texas has proven it can beat weak teams like Rice by 40 points or more. However, when the Longhorns go up against teams that have muscle and quickness, their talent proves to be just short of exceptional. Texas Tech has been down most of the years since they dismissed Mike Leach, but the Red Raiders have potentially their best team since the Pirate was forced to walk the plank. Their pasting of Houston to begin the season was genuine.

Mississippi State vs. LSU on ESPN: Did you watch the Mississippi State – Memphis game and see the Bulldogs get hosed by the zebras? Not just one, but two bad officiating mistakes were made on the key play of the game. First, the officials did not catch the fact that Memphis had two players wearing the number 4 jersey on a punt and return. Second, Mississippi State obviously downed the same punt, and the back judge signaled for a stoppage in play, leading to the Bulldogs stopping their action. A Memphis player then picked up the ball and ran for a touchdown. The officials were bascially forced to admit after the game that they were human. Mississippi State should be 3-0, and now they must win at least three SEC games to become bowl eligible this year. LSU basically becomes a must-win game. However, this game might be a must-win game for both LSU as a team and Ed Orgeron as a coach in Baton Rouge in 2022.

Boston College vs. Missouri on ESPN2: The ACC needs a signature non-conference win, and it needs a team to stay undefeated. Boston College may be the last hope this year. Missouri isn’t a top 10 team, but the Tigers are a middle of the pack SEC team, but a win over the Tigers would move BC into the top 25. One factor that won’t help BC is the weather. Temperatures figure to be above average, or more like Missouri.

3:30 PM

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (@ Arlington, TX) on CBS: The first of two great games in this time slot Saturday, the winner of this game will improve to 4-0 with an SEC victory. Second year Arkansas coach Sam Pittman is quickly proving to be one of the best new coaches in college football. The Razorbacks were weaker than Vanderbilt just a couple years ago, and Pittman has his Hogs on the precipice of looking like a New Year’s Bowl team. The Aggies have not found their overdrive gear yet in 2021. The defense has been impressive, but after Minnesota shutout Colorado yesterday, the 10-7 win in Boulder doesn’t look like much. Don’t be shocked if this game was still in doubt in the fourth quarter.

Michigan vs. Rutgers on ABC: This didn’t look like it would be an important game three weeks ago, but all of a sudden, it becomes a crucial game. The winner will be 1-0 in the Big Ten and 4-0 overall. If we had to guess, we’d say this is going game will go under the predicted total, because both teams have quality defenses. Michigan figures to be a double-digit favorite, but the Scarlet Knights will bring their A-game to the Big House, because that’s what Coach Greg Schiano’s teams do. With Ohio State looking somewhat vulnerable this year, the winner of this game will definitely be in contention in the Big Ten East.

North Carolina State v. Clemson on ESPN: We here in the galley of the PiRate ship tend to get cabin fever on Autumn Saturdays using all the ships power to monitor four and sometimes five college football games at once. This one will be part of the afternoon rush. Clemson is close to eliminating itself from the Playoff race. The Tigers didn’t show up yesterday against Georgia Tech. We’re talking Tech not the Bulldogs. Now, CU must leave home to play a Wolf Pack team that has a history of playing a couple of touchdowns better at home than on the road. If NC St. wins this game, the ACC probably gets no playoff team this year.

2 Comments

  1. Missouri is on the road this week at BC. They’re a very different team at home versus on the road!

    Comment by SG — September 20, 2021 @ 8:42 am

  2. Many teams are different on the road than at home, but the Tigers have lucked into having Missouri-like weather in Chestnut Hill. Instead of potentially cooling temperatures that would be beneficial to the Eagles, temperatures in the low 80s with some humidity will not affect Missouri all that much, since they practice and play in that type of weather in September. It is still a very big game for the ACC in general.

    Comment by piratings — September 21, 2021 @ 4:33 am


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