PiRate Ratings College Football September 12, 2021

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This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana	Ohio U	23.3	19.2	22.3
Louisville	Central Florida	0.3	1.1	-0.8
Illinois	Marylalnd	-14.3	-12.2	-11.2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	10.3	9.4	11.3
Michigan	Northern Illinois	20.3	23.5	24.3
Army	Connecticut	35.7	34.5	38.9
Massachusetts	Eastern Michigan	-15.9	-14.8	-16.5
Temple	Boston College	-22.4	-21.3	-22.0
West Virginia	Virginia Tech	9.7	9.1	8.3
Buffalo	Coastal Carolina	-8.7	-7.0	-9.9
Pittsburgh	Western Michigan	15.8	16.5	17.5
Oklahoma	Nebraska	25.6	22.5	24.0
Indiana	Cincinnati	-3.9	-3.1	-4.3
Texas A&M	New Mexico	35.3	35.9	36.9
Colorado	Minnesota	4.9	3.3	1.4
Wyoming	Ball St.	3.4	4.3	7.7
Kansas St.	Nevada	8.9	7.3	7.4
Notre Dame	Purdue	0.5	2.3	0.8
Clemson	Georgia Tech	26.7	27.1	29.6
Washington St.	USC	-12.8	-11.7	-14.6
Florida	Alabama	-13.3	-10.1	-13.9
Wake Forest	Florida St.	8.7	7.1	8.4
Iowa	Kent St.	26.4	23.9	29.4
Louisiana Tech	SMU	-4.5	-4.9	-7.0
Ohio St.	Tulsa	23.4	23.4	25.6
Kansas	Baylor	-15.1	-17.4	-19.6
Toledo	Colorado St.	16.5	16.3	15.3
Duke	Northwestern	-11.6	-10.3	-12.5
Arkansas	Georgia Southern	30.0	29.2	29.1
Memphis	Mississippi St.	-13.7	-13.3	-11.4
Washington	Arkansas St.	17.5	17.8	20.1
UTSA	Middle Tennessee	14.1	14.9	12.3
Liberty	Old Dominion	35.6	36.3	37.6
Marshall	East Carolina	5.0	6.0	4.4
Southern Miss.	Troy	-10.5	-9.1	-10.2
Texas Tech	Florida Int’l.	26.2	26.2	23.4
Georgia St.	Charlotte	14.2	12.3	12.0
San Diego St.	Utah	-6.1	-6.7	-6.5
Georgia	South Carolina	29.0	29.2	31.7
Penn St.	Auburn	-0.9	1.4	1.7
Air Force	Utah St.	10.3	9.0	11.1
North Carolina	Virginia	14.8	12.8	17.8
LSU	Central Michigan	12.5	14.9	14.8
North Texas	UAB	-8.8	-8.7	-8.9
Vanderbilt	Stanford	-14.2	-16.1	-14.9
Texas	Rice	33.2	31.3	32.0
Ole Miss	Tulane	14.3	15.6	12.6
Boise St.	Oklahoma St.	-2.7	-2.8	-0.9
BYU	Arizona St.	2.1	0.6	2.1
UNLV	Iowa St.	-32.7	-32.2	-33.9
UCLA	Fresno St.	18.1	16.2	15.8
Hawaii	San Jose St.	-3.5	-4.3	-2.2

This week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Kentucky	Chattanooga	30.2
Missouri	SE Missouri	29.4
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	30.7
Syracuse	Albany	21.5
Rutgers	Delaware	23.5
Miami (O)	Long Island	25.5
Akron	Bryant	9.2
Appalachian St.	Elon	27.7
Oregon St.	Idaho	21.2
California	Sacramento St.	22.3
Bowling Green	Murray St.	5.2
Florida Atlantic	Fordham	27.4
Houston	Grambling	28.8
South Florida	Florida A&M	15.5
Texas St.	Incarnate Word	13.5
Oregon	Stony Brook	32.4
North Carolina St.	Furman	27.1
Louisiana-Monroe	Jackson St.	11.6
South Alabama	Alcorn St.	23.3
New Mexico St.	South Carolina St.	1.5
Arizona	Northern Arizona	16.3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	132.3
2	Georgia	128.5
3	Oklahoma	126.4
4	Clemson	121.7
5	Iowa St.	120.6
6	Ohio St.	119.5
7	Cincinnati	119.2
8	Auburn	118.2
9	Texas A&M	117.8
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Iowa	117.6
12	Florida	116.8
13	Penn St.	116.0
14	U S C	115.7
15	Wisconsin	114.7
16	T C U	114.4
17	Ole Miss	114.0
18	Texas	114.0
19	Oregon	113.5
20	Miami (Fla.)	113.4
21	U C L A	113.0
22	West Virginia	112.9
23	Indiana	112.4
24	Arkansas	112.3
25	Arizona St.	111.7
26	L S U	111.4
27	Utah	110.5
28	BYU	110.3
29	Maryland	109.6
30	Oklahoma St.	109.5
31	Coastal Carolina	109.1
32	Michigan	108.6
33	Purdue	108.6
34	Notre Dame	108.3
35	NC State	108.1
36	Kentucky	108.0
37	Mississippi St.	108.0
38	Louisiana	106.9
39	Virginia Tech	106.9
40	Wake Forest	106.8
41	Liberty	106.8
42	Oregon St.	106.3
43	Missouri	106.2
44	Colorado	106.2
45	Michigan St.	106.1
46	Minnesota	106.0
47	Washington	105.6
48	Virginia	105.6
49	Kansas St.	105.4
50	Nebraska	105.3
51	Stanford	105.1
52	Baylor	104.9
53	Boston College	104.8
54	Boise St.	104.3
55	UCF	104.0
56	Pittsburgh	103.3
57	Texas Tech	102.9
58	Tulane	102.9
59	Appalachian St.	102.8
60	Northwestern	102.5
61	Tennessee	102.4
62	Army	102.1
63	Louisville	101.7
64	South Carolina	101.5
65	Florida St.	101.3
66	Houston	101.2
67	San Diego St.	101.1
68	Nevada	100.6
69	Rutgers	100.4
70	San Jose St.	100.4
71	Central Michigan	100.4
72	Washington St.	99.6
73	California	99.6
74	Fresno St.	99.3
75	Tulsa	98.4
76	Toledo	98.3
77	Miami (Ohio)	97.9
78	Buffalo	97.6
79	Wyoming	97.4
80	SMU	97.2
81	Air Force	97.0
82	U T S A	96.9
83	Georgia Tech	96.8
84	Marshall	96.7
85	Troy	95.4
86	Ball St.	95.3
87	Syracuse	94.9
88	East Carolina	94.6
89	Illinois	94.5
90	U A B	94.2
91	Kent St.	94.0
92	Memphis	93.7
93	Hawaii	93.1
94	Florida Atlantic	92.5
95	Arizona	92.2
96	Georgia St.	91.7
97	South Alabama	91.4
98	Eastern Michigan	91.0
99	Arkansas St.	90.1
100	Utah St.	89.8
101	Western Michigan	89.7
102	Northern Illinois	88.9
103	Louisiana Tech	88.7
104	Duke	88.5
105	Ohio	88.3
106	USF	88.2
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Vanderbilt	87.0
109	Western Kentucky	86.2
110	Middle Tennessee	86.1
111	Georgia Southern	85.9
112	Colorado St.	85.3
113	Rice	84.8
114	New Mexico	84.8
115	U N L V	84.7
116	Navy	84.6
117	Kansas	84.5
118	Southern Miss.	83.4
119	North Texas	82.4
120	Charlotte	80.9
121	Florida Int’l.	80.6
122	Temple	80.4
123	U T E P	76.6
124	UL-Monroe	75.6
125	Akron	75.2
126	UMass	72.8
127	Bowling Green	72.4
128	Old Dominion	72.3
129	New Mexico St.	69.4
130	Connecticut	67.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.0	118.0	120.6	119.2
UCF	103.6	102.5	105.9	104.0
Tulane	102.7	101.4	104.5	102.9
Houston	101.6	100.2	101.9	101.2
Tulsa	98.4	98.6	98.1	98.4
SMU	96.5	97.5	97.6	97.2
East Carolina	94.6	93.7	95.4	94.6
Memphis	92.9	93.5	94.7	93.7
USF	88.6	87.7	88.3	88.2
Navy	85.1	84.3	84.5	84.6
Temple	79.6	81.1	80.4	80.4
AAC Averages	96.6	96.2	97.4	96.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.6	121.0	123.3	121.7
NC State	108.6	107.8	108.0	108.1
Wake Forest	107.2	106.0	107.3	106.8
Boston College	104.5	104.9	104.9	104.8
Louisville	101.4	101.0	102.6	101.7
Florida St.	101.0	101.4	101.4	101.3
Syracuse	95.4	95.2	94.2	94.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.7	116.8	119.7	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	113.8	112.5	114.1	113.4
Virginia Tech	107.8	106.4	106.4	106.9
Virginia	104.9	106.9	104.9	105.6
Pittsburgh	102.9	103.9	103.3	103.3
Georgia Tech	96.9	96.9	96.7	96.8
Duke	88.5	89.8	87.3	88.5
ACC Averages	105.0	105.0	105.3	105.1

Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	127.6	125.0	126.5	126.4
Iowa St.	121.1	119.3	121.4	120.6
T C U	114.9	113.6	114.6	114.4
Texas	115.0	113.0	113.9	114.0
West Virginia	114.5	112.6	111.6	112.9
Oklahoma St.	110.0	109.6	108.8	109.5
Kansas St.	105.8	105.8	104.7	105.4
Baylor	105.5	105.1	104.1	104.9
Texas Tech	102.9	103.7	102.1	102.9
Kansas	87.3	84.7	81.6	84.5
Big 12 Averages	110.5	109.2	108.9	109.5

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	118.8	119.0	120.8	119.5
Penn St.	114.7	115.8	117.4	116.0
Indiana	112.0	111.9	113.3	112.4
Maryland	111.0	109.3	108.3	109.6
Michigan	107.8	108.9	109.2	108.6
Michigan St.	106.5	106.1	105.8	106.1
Rutgers	99.4	101.6	100.2	100.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	117.0	116.5	119.4	117.6
Wisconsin	114.1	114.0	116.0	114.7
Purdue	108.4	107.8	109.6	108.6
Minnesota	104.9	106.0	107.3	106.0
Nebraska	105.0	105.5	105.5	105.3
Northwestern	102.6	102.5	102.3	102.5
Illinois	94.2	94.6	94.7	94.5
Big Ten Averages	108.3	108.6	109.3	108.7

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.7	96.7	96.9	96.7
Florida Atlantic	91.4	93.3	92.7	92.5
Western Kentucky	85.2	87.0	86.4	86.2
Middle Tennessee	85.7	85.5	87.1	86.1
Charlotte	80.1	81.1	81.5	80.9
Florida Int’l.	79.7	80.5	81.7	80.6
Old Dominion	72.0	72.6	72.2	72.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	96.8	97.4	96.5	96.9
U A B	94.5	94.2	93.9	94.2
Louisiana Tech	89.0	89.6	87.6	88.7
Rice	84.8	84.7	84.9	84.8
Southern Miss.	82.6	84.2	83.4	83.4
North Texas	82.7	82.4	82.0	82.4
U T E P	77.0	77.7	75.1	76.6
CUSA Averages	85.6	86.2	85.9	85.9

FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	110.2	109.5	111.1	110.3
Notre Dame	107.4	108.6	108.9	108.3
Liberty	105.6	106.9	107.8	106.8
Army	102.0	102.0	102.3	102.1
UMass	74.2	73.6	70.6	72.8
New Mexico St.	69.8	70.6	67.8	69.4
Connecticut	68.3	69.5	65.4	67.7
Indep. Averages	91.1	91.5	90.6	91.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.7	97.4	96.6	97.9
Buffalo	98.2	97.2	97.4	97.6
Kent St.	93.6	95.5	93.0	94.0
Ohio	87.2	89.1	88.5	88.3
Akron	77.0	75.0	73.6	75.2
Bowling Green	73.0	73.4	70.9	72.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	101.1	99.8	100.2	100.4
Toledo	98.8	98.4	97.7	98.3
Ball St.	96.2	96.1	93.6	95.3
Eastern Michigan	92.7	90.9	89.5	91.0
Western Michigan	90.0	90.3	88.8	89.7
Northern Illinois	90.4	88.5	87.9	88.9
MAC Averages	91.5	91.0	89.8	90.8

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.8	104.8	104.3
Wyoming	96.7	97.3	98.3	97.4
Air Force	96.8	96.7	97.4	97.0
Utah St.	89.5	90.6	89.3	89.8
Colorado St.	85.3	85.1	85.4	85.3
New Mexico	85.0	85.3	84.0	84.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	101.5	100.9	100.9	101.1
Nevada	99.9	101.5	100.3	100.6
San Jose St.	100.9	101.0	99.4	100.4
Fresno St.	97.6	99.7	100.6	99.3
Hawaii	93.4	92.7	93.1	93.1
U N L V	85.5	84.2	84.6	84.7
MWC Averages	94.7	94.9	94.8	94.8

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	112.1	113.4	115.0	113.5
Oregon St.	106.2	106.1	106.5	106.3
Washington	104.6	105.9	106.3	105.6
Stanford	104.8	105.9	104.6	105.1
Washington St.	99.5	100.3	99.1	99.6
California	97.2	101.5	100.1	99.6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	115.2	115.0	116.7	115.7
U C L A	112.7	112.9	113.3	113.0
Arizona St.	111.1	112.0	112.0	111.7
Utah	110.6	110.6	110.4	110.5
Colorado	106.7	106.3	105.6	106.2
Arizona	92.8	92.0	91.8	92.2
Pac-12 Averages	106.1	106.8	106.8	106.6

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.9	127.9	129.9	128.5
Florida	116.0	117.9	116.6	116.8
Kentucky	107.4	109.2	107.5	108.0
Missouri	106.1	106.8	105.8	106.2
Tennessee	102.6	101.9	102.6	102.4
South Carolina	101.9	101.6	101.2	101.5
Vanderbilt	87.6	86.8	86.7	87.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	132.4	131.0	133.5	132.3
Auburn	118.6	117.4	118.7	118.2
Texas A&M	117.3	118.2	117.9	117.8
Ole Miss	113.9	114.0	114.1	114.0
Arkansas	112.8	112.5	111.5	112.3
L S U	110.5	111.7	112.0	111.4
Mississippi St.	108.1	108.3	107.5	108.0
SEC Averages	111.7	111.8	111.8	111.8

Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.8	107.1	110.3	109.1
Appalachian St.	102.2	101.9	104.4	102.8
Troy	95.1	95.4	95.7	95.4
Georgia St.	92.3	91.4	91.5	91.7
Georgia Southern	85.9	86.4	85.4	85.9
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	107.6	105.3	107.9	106.9
South Alabama	91.7	91.8	90.7	91.4
Arkansas St.	90.1	91.1	89.2	90.1
Texas St.	89.1	86.9	87.4	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.2	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.0	93.4	93.6	93.7

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.8
2	Big 12	109.5
3	Big Ten	108.7
4	Pac-12	106.6
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Mountain West	94.8
8	Sun Belt	93.7
9	Independents	91.1
10	Mid-American	90.8
11	Conference USA	85.9

Saturday’s TV Games of Interest

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 Noon

Indiana vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats could pick up some much needed schedule strength with a road win against the Hoosiers, although Indiana’s big loss to Iowa may not make a CU win all that influential to the Selection Committee down the road. As of this publication, it has not been decided if this will be the ABC or ESPN game.

Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina: Why do we call this important? Coastal Carolina has a chance to run the table for a second consecutive regular season, and this figures to possibly be their second toughest game on their schedule. If the Chanticleers win this one on the road, then possible a road game against Appalachian State on October 20 will be all that stands in CCU’s way of going 12-0 and competing for a NY6 Bowl. This game will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: We don’t expect an exciting game in this one, but it marks a very important 50th anniversary. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, the number one Cornhuskers visited Norman to face the number two Sooners in the “Game of the Century.” We believe it was the game of the second half of the century, as the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium was just as big.

On that great day 50 years ago, the lead changed hands three times with Nebraska tailback Jeff Kinney diving into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to give the ‘Huskers the 35-31 win. Oklahoma went on to the Sugar Bowl and destroyed a 9-1 Auburn team that had Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan at quarterback. The final score was 40-22, but it was 40-6 before Coach Chuck Fairbanks emptied his bench.

Nebraska met undefeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the national title. The game was a blowout by halftime, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 win. Nebraska finished first in the polls, and Oklahoma finished #2. Colorado, which only lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma edged Alabama for #3, while the Tide fell to #4. This was the only time in history that the #1 team beat the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in a season.

As for this year’s game, Oklahoma should win by a lopsided score, but maybe Nebraska will play its best game under Coach Scott Frost and make it interesting. Catch this game on Fox.

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies look strong enough defensively to compete with all their ACC brethren, while West Virginia is a work in progress under second year coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are a different team at Mountaineer Field than they are on the road. This should be a stern test for Justin Fuente’s squad. This one airs on FS1.

3:30 PM

Florida vs. Alabama: Florida might have a bit of a quarterback controversy between starter Emory Jones and exciting backup Anthony Richardson. Jones tossed two interceptions against South Florida’s defense. Richardson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, and he was three for three for 152 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Alabama has no controversies. The Tide look unstoppable with what should be a rebuilding year. Can they manhandle the Gators in Gainesville? A 20+ – point win looks highly possible. This game is CBS’s first SEC game of the season.

7:30 PM

Penn St. vs. Auburn: This is Bryan Harsin’s first test as Auburn’s head coach. Penn State is not all the way back as a power, but playing them at Happy Valley is quite difficult. Expect a potentially lower scoring game, but it should be highly competitive and worth watching. It’s the ABC prime time game.

10:15 PM

BYU vs. Arizona St.: After dominating Utah Saturday night, this BYU team looks just as tough or even tougher in 2021 than it looked in 2020 with an All-American quarterback now starting for the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Arizona State has quietly started 2-0 with two creampuffs.

The Sun Devils have withstood some major accusations with potential illegal recruiting, so bad, that an insider has claimed that an incredible tell-all book about the transgressions would be a bestseller.

This figures to be ASU’s last chance for multiple seasons to make hay before their sun sets with numerous punishments, that is if the NCAA has any investigators remaining. This game airs on ESPN.

10:45 PM

UCLA vs. Fresno St.: After Saturday’s Oregon win at Ohio State, Fresno State’s close loss to the Ducks on September 4 looked a lot more impressive. The Bulldogs won’t be intimidated by the 2-0 Bruins, coming off a big win over LSU plus a week off.

UCLA didn’t need the week off after beating LSU at the Rose Bowl, but the Bruins won’t be hurt by the bye week. This should be an action-packed and exciting game, and Fresno State could still be there in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

Wide Variety In Styles This Year

The up-tempo offenses of the recent decade have some new company with teams going the other way. The hurry-up no huddle teams are still to be found in great numbers. However, some coaches are killing the clock trying to play ball-control and taking all the time off the play clock between plays.

Here’s an exceptional case in point to show the extremes from yesterday. Central Michigan played ball-control yesterday against FCS opponent Robert Morris. They gave RMU just 38 scrimmage plays (30 runs and 8 passes). The total of 119 plays looked like a game from the 1950s. In Madison, WI, Eastern Michigan was also held to 38 plays and 92 total yards against the Badgers in a game that had just 113 total plays. Several additional games were limited to less than 130 scrimmage plays, something that has been a rarity in recent seasons. Troy and Liberty combined for just 114 scrimmage plays.

At the other extreme, Marshall did something rarely done in college football history. They ran 100 plays in their win over UNC Central. They gained 700 yards. Arkansas State just missed 100 with 99 plays; they scored 50 points against Memphis, and they lost! North Texas had 96 plays against SMU and scored just 12 points.