The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 6, 2021

Super Bowl Special Parlay

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 pm

The PiRate Ratings chose not to issue any picks during the college bowl season and playoffs nor with the NFL Playoffs. With just one football game remaining this season, there is but one potential parlay remaining.

Normally, we lay off the Super Bowl entirely. It is like betting the Kentucky Derby; there are much better propositions in horse racing, namely in claiming and allowance races.

The PiRates only issue picks against the spread for fun and entertainment. We never wager any real money on games, and we highly advise you not to ever wager money based on what you read here. A few years ago, we had a professional “sharp” who has turned some mighty steep profits over the years pick games against four other “squares,” including two very wise females. The sharp didn’t win the competition. No, the female flight attendant won with ease. Her method was basically looking online at the public and picking games where the public was heavy on one side of a game. She went the opposite way and won about 60% of the games she wagered.

In all the years we participated in our fun wagers, only twice did we ever finish with a success north of 60%. Buckeye Michelle has retired from wagering on games just for fun, and we don’t have the queen of street smarts helping out these days.

What we have left in the tank this year is one final parlay. We are going with a thought that in recent years, the Super Bowls have been tightly battled with low margins and totals in the average range, not to different from the spread and total line. By playing a 4-team, 13-point teaser at -140 at most books but at -130 if you can find it, you are allowed to move pointspreads and/or totals by 13 points in your favor. In other words if Team A is favored by 9 1/2 points over Team B, a 13-point teaser would allow you to move the line 13 points in either direction. Now, Team A would go from a 9 1/2 point favorite to a 3 1/2 point underdog. Or, Team B would go from a 9 1/2 point underdog to a 22 1/2 point underdog.

There is but one game left, and to play a 13-point teaser, we need four different wagers. By wagering on both sides of the spread and both sides of the total, there are four different wager choices.

As of Saturday night, February 6, the line is Kansas City -3, and the total is 56 points.

Here is the possible 4-game, 13-point teaser.

Kansas City +10

Tampa Bay +16

Over 43

Under 69

Our expectation in this game is that the winner will win by no more than eight points, and the game might be a tad lower scoring than expected, but not lower than 43 points which is a critical total line value. If we had to guess a score in this game it would be 31-27 with a 55% chance that Kansas City will win its second Super Bowl in a row and a 45% chance that Tom Brady will become the Babe Ruth of football.

Enjoy the game. The PiRate Ratings hope you have rent money on Monday, so please don’t wager this game based on what we have published.

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