PiRate Ratings College Football For December 17-19, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

We apologize for having to totally re-work this section, but the crazy off-the-cuff scheduling and cancellations have done a number on all of the power ratings specialists throughout the land. We keep in touch with many of our brethren, and they too are having to deal with hourly changes to the sports schedules.

This schedule is up to date as of Monday afternoon, 12/14/2020 at 4:00 PM EST.

Monday night update: Vanderbilt & Georgia game cancelled. Georgia is attempting to find a replacement team from outside the SEC.

SMU has opted out of Saturday’s Frisco Bowl. A replacement will be attempted by the bowl.

Tuesday update–The Frisco Bowl has been cancelled. Troy and UL-Monroe have cancelled. And, the Old Oaken Bucket Game–Indiana and Purdue has been cancelled. Michigan’s game with Iowa has been cancelled. The Michigan State-Maryland game has been cancelled.

Thursday update– The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana has been cancelled.

Friday update–Florida State and Wake Forest game has been cancelled.

Regular Season Games
Thursday, December 17
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Troy	UL-Monroe	25.3	26.5	27.3
Friday, December 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indiana	Purdue	14.7	15.0	16.5
Rutgers	Nebraska	-2.9	-3.4	-4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	Florida St.	7.8	9.4	8.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.0	11.8	13.5
Penn St.	Illinois	10.8	10.2	10.6
Iowa	Michigan	16.3	16.8	17.0
Maryland	Michigan St.	-2.4	-1.9	-3.2
Army	Air Force	-5.3	-4.6	-5.3
Utah	Washington St.	6.4	8.0	6.7
UCLA	Stanford	5.3	6.1	4.9
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-3.2	-2.7	-3.6
Georgia	Vanderbilt	38.1	38.0	39.8
Tennessee	Texas A&M	-13.8	-14.4	-14.4
LSU	Ole Miss	6.8	7.2	7.9
Mississippi St.	Missouri	0.6	0.2	0.2
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
Friday, December 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo (n)	Ball St.	11.3	12.5	11.9
Marshall	UAB	6.2	6.2	6.5
USC	Oregon	5.2	4.2	4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Tulsa	17.2	18.1	18.8
Clemson (n)	Notre Dame	5.8	6.8	8.0
Iowa St. (n)	Oklahoma	-1.1	-1.3	-0.9
Ohio St. (n)	Northwestern	19.5	18.5	19.2
Alabama (n)	Florida	18.1	19.7	19.9
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	3.3	4.3	4.5
San Jose St. (n)	Boise St.	-10.4	-8.5	-9.5
(n): Neutral Site
BOWL GAME
Frisco Bowl—Cancelled
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	UTSA	15.9	15.0	14.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Alabama	140.4	141.3	142.7	141.5	SEC-W
2	Ohio St.	131.4	130.5	133.7	131.9	BTen-E
3	Clemson	129.2	130.0	131.4	130.2	ACC
4	Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	SEC-E
5	Notre Dame	124.4	124.2	124.4	124.3	ACC
6	Florida	122.2	121.7	122.8	122.2	SEC-E
7	Texas A&M	121.6	121.6	122.3	121.8	SEC-W
8	Oklahoma	121.6	121.1	121.8	121.5	B12
9	Iowa St.	120.5	119.8	120.9	120.4	B12
10	Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	BTen-W
11	N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	ACC
12	Wisconsin	119.7	118.0	120.9	119.5	BTen-W
13	Cincinnati	119.2	118.7	119.4	119.1	AAC
14	Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	BTen-E
15	U S C	118.6	116.0	117.7	117.5	P12-S
16	Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	B12
17	Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	SEC-W
18	Oregon	115.5	113.9	114.9	114.8	P12-N
19	BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	Ind.
20	L S U	114.3	113.6	115.4	114.4	SEC-W
21	Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	B12
22	Northwestern	111.9	112.0	114.4	112.8	BTen-W
23	Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	ACC
24	Penn St.	111.8	110.5	112.4	111.6	BTen-E
25	UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	AAC
26	T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	B12
27	Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	SEC-E
28	Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	P12-N
29	Arizona St.	109.2	108.5	108.8	108.8	P12-S
30	Ole Miss	109.0	107.9	109.0	108.6	SEC-W
31	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.9	108.5	P12-S
32	U C L A	108.2	107.3	107.4	107.6	P12-S
33	Buffalo	106.9	108.0	107.7	107.5	MAC-E
34	Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	SUN-E
35	Minnesota	106.7	107.2	108.3	107.4	BTen-W
36	Boise St.	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	MWC-M
37	Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	ACC
38	Tennessee	106.3	105.7	106.4	106.1	SEC-E
39	Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	ACC
40	Missouri	105.3	105.0	106.1	105.5	SEC-E
41	Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	BTen-E
42	Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	SUN-W
43	Nebraska	105.0	104.5	106.3	105.3	BTen-W
44	Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	ACC
45	California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	P12-N
46	Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	ACC
47	W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	B12
48	Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	ACC
49	Miss. St.	104.4	103.7	104.8	104.3	SEC-W
50	Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	AAC
51	Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	ACC
52	Stanford	104.4	102.7	104.0	103.7	P12-N
53	Oregon St.	104.0	103.8	103.2	103.7	P12-N
54	Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	BTen-W
55	Washington St.	103.7	102.3	104.2	103.4	P12-N
56	Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	AAC
57	Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	SUN-E
58	Illinois	102.9	102.3	103.8	103.0	BTen-W
59	Tulsa	103.5	102.1	102.1	102.5	AAC
60	Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	SEC-W
61	Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	B12
62	Air Force	101.7	102.4	101.7	101.9	MWC-M
63	NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	ACC
64	Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	AAC
65	Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	Ind.
66	Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	P12-S
67	Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	B12
68	Rutgers	100.6	99.6	100.0	100.1	BTen-E
69	SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	AAC
70	S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	SEC-E
71	Marshall	99.6	99.9	99.2	99.5	CUSA-E
72	Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	BTen-E
73	San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	MWC-W
74	Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	B12
75	San Jose St.	96.9	98.6	97.4	97.6	MWC-W
76	Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	ACC
77	Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	MWC-M
78	Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	MWC-W
79	Ball St.	95.6	95.5	95.8	95.7	MAC-W
80	U A B	95.3	95.7	94.7	95.2	CUSA-W
81	Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	ACC
82	E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	AAC
83	Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	BTen-E
84	Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	MAC-E
85	Army	93.9	95.3	93.9	94.4	Ind.
86	Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	P12-S
87	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	SUN-E
88	Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	MWC-W
89	Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	MWC-W
90	Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	MAC-W
91	Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	MAC-W
92	Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	SUN-E
93	Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	MAC-W
94	Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	SUN-E
95	Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	MAC-E
96	Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	AAC
97	W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	CUSA-E
98	Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	MAC-E
99	Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	ACC
100	Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	ACC
101	Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	MWC-M
102	Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	SEC-E
103	Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	SUN-W
104	Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	AAC
105	Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	CUSA-W
106	USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	AAC
107	Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	CUSA-E
108	New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	MWC-M
109	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	CUSA-E
110	U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	CUSA-W
111	Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	MAC-W
112	Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	MWC-M
113	La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	CUSA-W
114	Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	CUSA-E
115	Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	CUSA-E
116	Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	CUSA-W
117	S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	SUN-W
118	N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	MAC-W
119	Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	SUN-W
120	U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	MWC-W
121	Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	B12
122	North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	CUSA-W
123	U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	CUSA-W
124	Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	MAC-E
125	UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	SUN-W
126	Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	MAC-E
127	Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
Cincinnati	119.2	118.7	119.4	119.1	6-0	8-0
UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	5-3	6-3
Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	3-5	6-5
Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	5-3	7-3
Tulsa	103.5	102.1	102.1	102.5	6-0	6-1
Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	3-3	3-4
SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	4-3	7-3
E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	3-4	3-6
Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	3-4	3-7
Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	1-6	1-6
USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	0-7	1-8
AAC Avg.	100.7	100.0	99.7	100.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.2	130.0	131.4	130.2	8-1	9-1
Notre Dame	124.4	124.2	124.4	124.3	9-0	10-0
N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	7-3	8-3
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	7-2	8-2
Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	3-7	4-7
Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	5-5	6-5
Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	3-4	4-4
Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	4-5	5-5
Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	5-5	5-6
Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	5-5	6-5
NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	7-3	8-3
Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	2-6	3-6
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	3-6	3-7
Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	1-9	1-10
Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	1-9	2-9
ACC Avg.	106.0	106.3	106.2	106.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.6	121.1	121.8	121.5	6-2	7-2
Iowa St.	120.5	119.8	120.9	120.4	8-1	8-2
Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	5-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	6-3	7-3
T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	5-4	6-4
W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	4-4	5-4
Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	2-7	2-7
Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	4-5	4-6
Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	3-6	4-6
Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	0-8	0-9
Big 12 Avg.	106.9	106.1	106.8	106.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	131.4	130.5	133.7	131.9	5-0	5-0
Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	6-1	6-1
Penn St.	111.8	110.5	112.4	111.6	3-5	3-5
Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	2-4	2-4
Rutgers	100.6	99.6	100.0	100.1	3-5	3-5
Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	2-5	2-5
Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	2-3	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	6-2	6-2
Wisconsin	119.7	118.0	120.9	119.5	2-3	2-3
Northwestern	111.9	112.0	114.4	112.8	6-1	6-1
Minnesota	106.7	107.2	108.3	107.4	3-3	3-3
Nebraska	105.0	104.5	106.3	105.3	2-5	2-5
Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	2-4	2-4
Illinois	102.9	102.3	103.8	103.0	2-5	2-5
Big Ten Avg.	109.3	108.8	110.4	109.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	99.6	99.9	99.2	99.5	4-1	7-1
W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	4-3	5-6
Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	4-2	5-3
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	0-3	0-5
Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	2-2	2-4
Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	2-4	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.3	95.7	94.7	95.2	3-1	5-3
Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	2-3	2-3
U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	5-2	7-4
La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	4-2	5-4
Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	2-4	3-7
North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	3-4	4-5
U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	0-4	3-5
CUSA Avg.	85.1	85.4	84.8	85.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	x	10-1
Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	x	9-1
Army	93.9	95.3	93.9	94.4	x	8-2
Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	x	0-4
Ind. Avg.	92.6	95.1	92.4	93.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Buffalo	106.9	108.0	107.7	107.5	5-0	5-0
Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	2-1	2-1
Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	2-1	2-1
Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	3-1	3-1
Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	1-5	1-5
Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	0-5	0-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Ball St.	95.6	95.5	95.8	95.7	5-1	5-1
Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	4-2	4-2
Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	4-2	4-2
Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	3-3	3-3
Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	2-4	2-4
N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	0-6	0-6
MAC Avg.	87.8	88.5	87.6	88.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	5-0	5-1
Air Force	101.7	102.4	101.7	101.9	2-2	3-2
Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	2-4	2-4
Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	1-3	1-3
New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	2-5	2-5
Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	1-5	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	4-2	4-4
San Jose St.	96.9	98.6	97.4	97.6	6-0	6-0
Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	6-2	6-2
Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	3-3	3-3
Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	4-4	4-4
U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	0-6	0-6
MWC Avg.	93.3	94.1	93.2	93.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Oregon	115.5	113.9	114.9	114.8	3-2	3-2
Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	3-1	3-1
California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	1-3	1-3
Stanford	104.4	102.7	104.0	103.7	3-2	3-2
Oregon St.	104.0	103.8	103.2	103.7	2-4	2-4
Washington St.	103.7	102.3	104.2	103.4	1-2	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
U S C	118.6	116.0	117.7	117.5	5-0	5-0
Arizona St.	109.2	108.5	108.8	108.8	1-2	1-2
Utah	108.2	108.3	108.9	108.5	2-2	2-2
U C L A	108.2	107.3	107.4	107.6	3-3	3-3
Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	3-1	4-1
Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	0-5	0-5
P12 Avg.	106.8	105.8	106.4	106.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	7-2	7-2
Florida	122.2	121.7	122.8	122.2	8-2	8-2
Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	4-6	4-6
Tennessee	106.3	105.7	106.4	106.1	3-6	3-6
Missouri	105.3	105.0	106.1	105.5	5-4	5-4
S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	2-8	2-8
Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	0-9	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.4	141.3	142.7	141.5	10-0	10-0
Texas A&M	121.6	121.6	122.3	121.8	7-1	7-1
Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	6-4	6-4
L S U	114.3	113.6	115.4	114.4	4-5	4-5
Ole Miss	109.0	107.9	109.0	108.6	4-4	4-4
Miss. St.	104.4	103.7	104.8	104.3	2-7	2-7
Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	3-7	3-7
SEC Avg.	111.7	111.2	112.1	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	8-0	11-0
Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	6-2	8-3
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	4-4	7-5
Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	4-4	5-4
Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	3-6	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	7-1	9-1
Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	2-6	4-7
S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	3-5	4-7
Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	2-6	2-10
UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	0-7	0-10
Sun Avg.	91.1	91.4	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	SEC	111.7
2	BTen	109.5
3	B12	106.6
4	P12	106.4
5	ACC	106.2
6	AAC	100.1
7	MWC	93.5
8	Ind.	93.3
9	Sun	91.2
10	MAC	88.0
11	CUSA	85.1

The Playoffs–What Will Be This Week & What Should Be

The Playoff Committee won’t adjust this week’s top four teams. Only one of the four from last week played a game this past weekend, and Alabama basically showed the nation that they look like the best team in college football since the 2001 Miami of Florida Hurricanes. If somebody tells you that the playoffs need to be expanded from 4 to either 6, 8, or 12 teams, because Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose St. deserve a chance this year, you should reply that they are incorrect when talking about this year only. If the NCAA Playoff Committee wanted to make any changes to make the 2020-2021 college season end the right way, they should change the number of teams in the playoffs–from four to zero!

Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation. If they played Notre Dame, Ohio State, or Clemson next week, the Tide would be favored by two touchdowns minimum over any of the three contenders. If you are old enough to remember UCLA basketball during the three seasons that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and his additional all-American teammates suited up for the Bruins, the NCAA Tournaments were less eventful than the middle of the season Christmas and New Year’s tournaments. For three years, UCLA was the basketball equivalent of the 1927 New York Yankees. The NCAA Tournament was no different than the Bruin Invitational, as UCLA beat Dayton, North Carolina, and Purdue so handily that the games were not meaningful. Alabama is going to do the same thing this year.

We believe that Clemson will edge Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, as the Tigers almost beat the Irish in South Bend without having Trevor Lawrence available. Notre Dame will assuredly drop to #4 in the playoff rankings, but they will stay in the top 4 to be Sugar Bowl fodder for Alabama. Ohio State and Clemson would then face off in the Rose Bowl. Ten days later, Alabama will run roughshod over the Ohio State-Clemson winner, most likely Clemson, and it will be like the Yankees-Dodgers in the World Series during the 1950’s, with Alabama being the Yankees.

If you ask us whether Ohio State deserves to be in the Playoffs, as they have only played five games, when the Big Ten had previously stated that a team had to play at least six games to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship, we have a somewhat divided opinion. First, we 100% agree that Ohio State should be in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Let’s say that rather than declare the Michigan game postponed, that Ohio State forfeited the game to show a six-game slate. Even with the one loss, Ohio State beats out Indiana on the tiebreaker, and it doesn’t affect their eye test rating. So, the Buckeyes deserve the East Division championship. We kind of compare this to the rule where a Major League batter can be the batting champion even if he fails to get the required 502 plate appearances in a 162-game schedule, if you take his at-bats and include additional outs until you reach the 502 required PA’s. If the batter still has the highest batting average with those outs added, he is the batting champion.

For example, in 1996, legendary hitter Tony Gwynn batted .353, but he only made 498 plate appearances, which did not qualify for the batting crown. He needed four additional plate appearances. With four outs added to Gwynn’s actual record, his batting average dropped to .349, which was still better than the next highest average, Rockies’ star Ellis Burks at .344. So, Gwynn won the batting title at .353.

Likewise, adding one loss to Ohio State’s record still allows the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East in a tiebreaker with Indiana.

That being said, do we believe that Ohio State is one of the four best teams in the nation this year? The short answer is that our own ratings show the Buckeyes to be the second best team. However, if we were on the Playoff Committee, we would be totally at a loss to separate Ohio State and USC. As for any of the G5 teams, we hate to say it, but none of them can play either Ohio State or USC to within 10 points. A G5 Playoff with Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose State would be quite entertaining and much better TV choices than the bowl games, even the New Year’s Six games. But, the only teams outside the current top four that should be in consideration for the Playoffs are USC and Texas A&M. Additionally, it is more accurate to state that the loser of the ACC Championship Game should be removed in favor of an undefeated USC team this year. A one-loss Texas A&M team that beat Florida and played Alabama better than any other opponent might be the second best team in the nation, and it would be hard to convince us that they don’t belong in the Big Four if the ACC loser loses by a substantial margin.

Here is our belief as to what will happen depending on whether each of the contenders win or lose this week.

Alabama–If the Crimson Tide wins, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed. If the Crimson Tide loses, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #3 seed.

Ohio State–If the Buckeyes win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed. If the Buckeyes lose, they are in a NY6 bowl and not in the playoffs.

Notre Dame–If the Irish win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 seed or Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed if Bama were to lose. If the Irish lose, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed.

Clemson–If the Tigers win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed based on what Ohio State does. If the Tigers lose, they are in the Orange Bowl and not in the playoffs.

Texas A&M–The Aggies must win and then hope for Clemson or Ohio State to lose, possibly Notre Dame to lose by 20 or more points. If the Aggies back into the Playoffs, they will be headed to the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed if Alabama is #1, or to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State or Notre Dame is #1

USC–Notre Dame must beat Clemson, and Northwestern must upset Ohio State, while USC beats Washington by 28 or more points, and Texas A&M doesn’t slaughter Tennessee.

Cincinnati–Clemson, Ohio State, and USC must lose, and maybe even Texas A&M.

Any 2-loss team–We don’t see any scenario where Oklahoma, Iowa State, Florida, or Clemson could make the playoffs with two losses.