The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 13, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Football For December 17-19, 2020

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:25 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

We apologize for having to totally re-work this section, but the crazy off-the-cuff scheduling and cancellations have done a number on all of the power ratings specialists throughout the land. We keep in touch with many of our brethren, and they too are having to deal with hourly changes to the sports schedules.

This schedule is up to date as of Monday afternoon, 12/14/2020 at 4:00 PM EST.

Monday night update: Vanderbilt & Georgia game cancelled. Georgia is attempting to find a replacement team from outside the SEC.

SMU has opted out of Saturday’s Frisco Bowl. A replacement will be attempted by the bowl.

Tuesday update–The Frisco Bowl has been cancelled. Troy and UL-Monroe have cancelled. And, the Old Oaken Bucket Game–Indiana and Purdue has been cancelled. Michigan’s game with Iowa has been cancelled. The Michigan State-Maryland game has been cancelled.

Thursday update– The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana has been cancelled.

Friday update–Florida State and Wake Forest game has been cancelled.

Regular Season Games
Thursday, December 17
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
TroyUL-Monroe25.326.527.3

Friday, December 18
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
IndianaPurdue14.715.016.5
RutgersNebraska-2.9-3.4-4.8

Saturday, December 19
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Wake ForestFlorida St.7.89.48.8
WisconsinMinnesota14.011.813.5
Penn St.Illinois10.810.210.6
IowaMichigan16.316.817.0
MarylandMichigan St.-2.4-1.9-3.2
ArmyAir Force-5.3-4.6-5.3
UtahWashington St.6.48.06.7
UCLAStanford5.36.14.9
Oregon St.Arizona St.-3.2-2.7-3.6
GeorgiaVanderbilt38.138.039.8
TennesseeTexas A&M-13.8-14.4-14.4
LSUOle Miss6.87.27.9
Mississippi St.Missouri0.60.20.2

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Friday, December 18
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Buffalo (n)Ball St.11.312.511.9
MarshallUAB6.26.26.5
USCOregon5.24.24.8

Saturday, December 19
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
CincinnatiTulsa17.218.118.8
Clemson (n)Notre Dame5.86.88.0
Iowa St. (n)Oklahoma-1.1-1.3-0.9
Ohio St. (n)Northwestern19.518.519.2
Alabama (n)Florida18.119.719.9
Coastal CarolinaLouisiana3.34.34.5
San Jose St. (n)Boise St.-10.4-8.5-9.5
(n): Neutral Site

BOWL GAME

Frisco BowlCancelled
TeamTeamPiRateMeanBias
SMUUTSA15.915.014.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Alabama140.4141.3142.7141.5SEC-W
2Ohio St.131.4130.5133.7131.9BTen-E
3Clemson129.2130.0131.4130.2ACC
4Georgia124.4123.6125.2124.4SEC-E
5Notre Dame124.4124.2124.4124.3ACC
6Florida122.2121.7122.8122.2SEC-E
7Texas A&M121.6121.6122.3121.8SEC-W
8Oklahoma121.6121.1121.8121.5B12
9Iowa St.120.5119.8120.9120.4B12
10Iowa119.7119.3121.4120.1BTen-W
11N. Carolina119.8119.9120.3120.0ACC
12Wisconsin119.7118.0120.9119.5BTen-W
13Cincinnati119.2118.7119.4119.1AAC
14Indiana117.1117.5119.6118.1BTen-E
15U S C118.6116.0117.7117.5P12-S
16Texas117.0115.8116.9116.6B12
17Auburn115.6114.7115.7115.3SEC-W
18Oregon115.5113.9114.9114.8P12-N
19BYU114.7114.5114.9114.7Ind.
20L S U114.3113.6115.4114.4SEC-W
21Oklahoma St.114.5113.2113.6113.8B12
22Northwestern111.9112.0114.4112.8BTen-W
23Miami (Fla.)110.8112.7111.3111.6ACC
24Penn St.111.8110.5112.4111.6BTen-E
25UCF110.4110.3110.7110.5AAC
26T C U110.5109.3110.9110.3B12
27Kentucky109.1109.0110.1109.4SEC-E
28Washington109.4108.0109.8109.1P12-N
29Arizona St.109.2108.5108.8108.8P12-S
30Ole Miss109.0107.9109.0108.6SEC-W
31Utah108.2108.3108.9108.5P12-S
32U C L A108.2107.3107.4107.6P12-S
33Buffalo106.9108.0107.7107.5MAC-E
34Coastal Car.107.0107.6107.7107.4SUN-E
35Minnesota106.7107.2108.3107.4BTen-W
36Boise St.107.2107.2106.9107.1MWC-M
37Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.8ACC
38Tennessee106.3105.7106.4106.1SEC-E
39Pittsburgh105.5106.4105.8105.9ACC
40Missouri105.3105.0106.1105.5SEC-E
41Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.4BTen-E
42Louisiana105.7105.3105.3105.4SUN-W
43Nebraska105.0104.5106.3105.3BTen-W
44Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.3ACC
45California105.4105.1105.1105.2P12-N
46Virginia104.6105.0105.1104.9ACC
47W. Virginia104.7104.4104.9104.7B12
48Virginia Tech103.9104.5104.9104.4ACC
49Miss. St.104.4103.7104.8104.3SEC-W
50Tulane104.3104.3103.9104.2AAC
51Boston Coll.103.6103.9104.2103.9ACC
52Stanford104.4102.7104.0103.7P12-N
53Oregon St.104.0103.8103.2103.7P12-N
54Purdue103.4103.5104.1103.7BTen-W
55Washington St.103.7102.3104.2103.4P12-N
56Memphis104.4103.1102.6103.4AAC
57Appal. St.103.4102.9103.5103.3SUN-E
58Illinois102.9102.3103.8103.0BTen-W
59Tulsa103.5102.1102.1102.5AAC
60Arkansas102.2102.8102.4102.5SEC-W
61Baylor102.3101.8102.1102.1B12
62Air Force101.7102.4101.7101.9MWC-M
63NC State101.4101.9101.8101.7ACC
64Houston102.3100.9101.2101.5AAC
65Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2Ind.
66Colorado101.0101.899.8100.9P12-S
67Kansas St.100.499.6100.7100.2B12
68Rutgers100.699.6100.0100.1BTen-E
69SMU100.199.699.299.7AAC
70S. Carolina100.598.899.799.7SEC-E
71Marshall99.699.999.299.5CUSA-E
72Michigan St.99.198.699.799.2BTen-E
73San Diego St.98.599.598.898.9MWC-W
74Texas Tech98.897.698.998.4B12
75San Jose St.96.998.697.497.6MWC-W
76Florida St.97.997.297.797.6ACC
77Wyoming96.097.196.496.5MWC-M
78Nevada95.296.195.695.7MWC-W
79Ball St.95.695.595.895.7MAC-W
80U A B95.395.794.795.2CUSA-W
81Georgia Tech95.795.294.895.2ACC
82E. Carolina95.695.494.595.2AAC
83Maryland95.295.295.095.1BTen-E
84Ohio94.495.195.394.9MAC-E
85Army93.995.393.994.4Ind.
86Arizona94.192.592.993.2P12-S
87Georgia Sou.92.793.593.093.1SUN-E
88Fresno St.92.793.292.292.7MWC-W
89Hawaii92.793.092.092.5MWC-W
90Western Mich.91.693.392.492.4MAC-W
91Toledo92.193.291.992.4MAC-W
92Troy91.892.992.292.3SUN-E
93Central Mich.92.092.192.292.1MAC-W
94Georgia St.91.892.192.392.1SUN-E
95Miami (O)92.491.592.192.0MAC-E
96Navy92.791.490.791.6AAC
97W. Kentucky91.291.790.891.2CUSA-E
98Kent St.91.290.790.790.9MAC-E
99Syracuse90.191.390.890.8ACC
100Duke90.590.389.390.0ACC
101Colorado St.89.590.389.589.8MWC-M
102Vanderbilt88.387.587.487.8SEC-E
103Arkansas St.87.688.287.087.6SUN-W
104Temple87.987.686.387.3AAC
105Rice88.186.287.287.2CUSA-W
106USF87.886.586.286.8AAC
107Fla. Atlantic85.986.886.286.3CUSA-E
108New Mexico86.086.885.486.1MWC-M
109Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.5CUSA-E
110U T S A85.285.685.485.4CUSA-W
111Eastern Mich.83.885.684.584.6MAC-W
112Utah St.84.484.183.584.0MWC-M
113La. Tech83.684.283.683.8CUSA-W
114Charlotte83.583.683.283.4CUSA-E
115Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.3CUSA-E
116Southern Miss.82.382.881.882.3CUSA-W
117S. Alabama81.882.781.782.1SUN-W
118N. Illinois80.782.080.881.2MAC-W
119Texas St.81.081.580.280.9SUN-W
120U N L V79.580.678.779.6MWC-W
121Kansas78.778.077.478.1B12
122North Texas75.475.674.875.3CUSA-W
123U T E P67.970.368.068.7CUSA-W
124Akron67.569.266.167.6MAC-E
125UL-Monroe68.067.966.567.5SUN-W
126Bowling Green65.166.461.864.4MAC-E
127Mass.61.767.559.963.0Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgAACOverall
Cincinnati119.2118.7119.4119.16-08-0
UCF110.4110.3110.7110.55-36-3
Tulane104.3104.3103.9104.23-56-5
Memphis104.4103.1102.6103.45-37-3
Tulsa103.5102.1102.1102.56-06-1
Houston102.3100.9101.2101.53-33-4
SMU100.199.699.299.74-37-3
E. Carolina95.695.494.595.23-43-6
Navy92.791.490.791.63-43-7
Temple87.987.686.387.31-61-6
USF87.886.586.286.80-71-8
AAC Avg.100.7100.099.7100.1

Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgACCOverall
Clemson129.2130.0131.4130.28-19-1
Notre Dame124.4124.2124.4124.39-010-0
N. Carolina119.8119.9120.3120.07-38-3
Miami (Fla.)110.8112.7111.3111.67-28-2
Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.83-74-7
Pittsburgh105.5106.4105.8105.95-56-5
Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.33-44-4
Virginia104.6105.0105.1104.94-55-5
Virginia Tech103.9104.5104.9104.45-55-6
Boston Coll.103.6103.9104.2103.95-56-5
NC State101.4101.9101.8101.77-38-3
Florida St.97.997.297.797.62-63-6
Georgia Tech95.795.294.895.23-63-7
Syracuse90.191.390.890.81-91-10
Duke90.590.389.390.01-92-9
ACC Avg.106.0106.3106.2106.2

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgB12Overall
Oklahoma121.6121.1121.8121.56-27-2
Iowa St.120.5119.8120.9120.48-18-2
Texas117.0115.8116.9116.65-36-3
Oklahoma St.114.5113.2113.6113.86-37-3
T C U110.5109.3110.9110.35-46-4
W. Virginia104.7104.4104.9104.74-45-4
Baylor102.3101.8102.1102.12-72-7
Kansas St.100.499.6100.7100.24-54-6
Texas Tech98.897.698.998.43-64-6
Kansas78.778.077.478.10-80-9
Big 12 Avg.106.9106.1106.8106.6

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Ohio St.131.4130.5133.7131.95-05-0
Indiana117.1117.5119.6118.16-16-1
Penn St.111.8110.5112.4111.63-53-5
Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.42-42-4
Rutgers100.699.6100.0100.13-53-5
Michigan St.99.198.699.799.22-52-5
Maryland95.295.295.095.12-32-3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Iowa119.7119.3121.4120.16-26-2
Wisconsin119.7118.0120.9119.52-32-3
Northwestern111.9112.0114.4112.86-16-1
Minnesota106.7107.2108.3107.43-33-3
Nebraska105.0104.5106.3105.32-52-5
Purdue103.4103.5104.1103.72-42-4
Illinois102.9102.3103.8103.02-52-5
Big Ten Avg.109.3108.8110.4109.5

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
Marshall99.699.999.299.54-17-1
W. Kentucky91.291.790.891.24-35-6
Fla. Atlantic85.986.886.286.34-25-3
Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.50-30-5
Charlotte83.583.683.283.42-22-4
Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.32-43-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
U A B95.395.794.795.23-15-3
Rice88.186.287.287.22-32-3
U T S A85.285.685.485.45-27-4
La. Tech83.684.283.683.84-25-4
Southern Miss.82.382.881.882.32-43-7
North Texas75.475.674.875.33-44-5
U T E P67.970.368.068.70-43-5
CUSA Avg.85.185.484.885.1

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
BYU114.7114.5114.9114.7x10-1
Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2x9-1
Army93.995.393.994.4x8-2
Mass.61.767.559.963.0x0-4
Ind. Avg.92.695.192.493.3

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Buffalo106.9108.0107.7107.55-05-0
Ohio94.495.195.394.92-12-1
Miami (O)92.491.592.192.02-12-1
Kent St.91.290.790.790.93-13-1
Akron67.569.266.167.61-51-5
Bowling Green65.166.461.864.40-50-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Ball St.95.695.595.895.75-15-1
Western Mich.91.693.392.492.44-24-2
Toledo92.193.291.992.44-24-2
Central Mich.92.092.192.292.13-33-3
Eastern Mich.83.885.684.584.62-42-4
N. Illinois80.782.080.881.20-60-6
MAC Avg.87.888.587.688.0

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Boise St.107.2107.2106.9107.15-05-1
Air Force101.7102.4101.7101.92-23-2
Wyoming96.097.196.496.52-42-4
Colorado St.89.590.389.589.81-31-3
New Mexico86.086.885.486.12-52-5
Utah St.84.484.183.584.01-51-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
San Diego St.98.599.598.898.94-24-4
San Jose St.96.998.697.497.66-06-0
Nevada95.296.195.695.76-26-2
Fresno St.92.793.292.292.73-33-3
Hawaii92.793.092.092.54-44-4
U N L V79.580.678.779.60-60-6
MWC Avg.93.394.193.293.5

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Oregon115.5113.9114.9114.83-23-2
Washington109.4108.0109.8109.13-13-1
California105.4105.1105.1105.21-31-3
Stanford104.4102.7104.0103.73-23-2
Oregon St.104.0103.8103.2103.72-42-4
Washington St.103.7102.3104.2103.41-21-2

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
U S C118.6116.0117.7117.55-05-0
Arizona St.109.2108.5108.8108.81-21-2
Utah108.2108.3108.9108.52-22-2
U C L A108.2107.3107.4107.63-33-3
Colorado101.0101.899.8100.93-14-1
Arizona94.192.592.993.20-50-5
P12 Avg.106.8105.8106.4106.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Georgia124.4123.6125.2124.47-27-2
Florida122.2121.7122.8122.28-28-2
Kentucky109.1109.0110.1109.44-64-6
Tennessee106.3105.7106.4106.13-63-6
Missouri105.3105.0106.1105.55-45-4
S. Carolina100.598.899.799.72-82-8
Vanderbilt88.387.587.487.80-90-9
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Alabama140.4141.3142.7141.510-010-0
Texas A&M121.6121.6122.3121.87-17-1
Auburn115.6114.7115.7115.36-46-4
L S U114.3113.6115.4114.44-54-5
Ole Miss109.0107.9109.0108.64-44-4
Miss. St.104.4103.7104.8104.32-72-7
Arkansas102.2102.8102.4102.53-73-7
SEC Avg.111.7111.2112.1111.7

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Coastal Car.107.0107.6107.7107.48-011-0
Appal. St.103.4102.9103.5103.36-28-3
Georgia Sou.92.793.593.093.14-47-5
Georgia St.91.892.192.392.14-45-4
Troy91.892.992.292.33-65-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Louisiana105.7105.3105.3105.47-19-1
Arkansas St.87.688.287.087.62-64-7
S. Alabama81.882.781.782.13-54-7
Texas St.81.081.580.280.92-62-10
UL-Monroe68.067.966.567.50-70-10
Sun Avg.91.191.490.991.2

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1SEC111.7
2BTen109.5
3B12106.6
4P12106.4
5ACC106.2
6AAC100.1
7MWC93.5
8Ind.93.3
9Sun91.2
10MAC88.0
11CUSA85.1

The Playoffs–What Will Be This Week & What Should Be

The Playoff Committee won’t adjust this week’s top four teams. Only one of the four from last week played a game this past weekend, and Alabama basically showed the nation that they look like the best team in college football since the 2001 Miami of Florida Hurricanes. If somebody tells you that the playoffs need to be expanded from 4 to either 6, 8, or 12 teams, because Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose St. deserve a chance this year, you should reply that they are incorrect when talking about this year only. If the NCAA Playoff Committee wanted to make any changes to make the 2020-2021 college season end the right way, they should change the number of teams in the playoffs–from four to zero!

Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation. If they played Notre Dame, Ohio State, or Clemson next week, the Tide would be favored by two touchdowns minimum over any of the three contenders. If you are old enough to remember UCLA basketball during the three seasons that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and his additional all-American teammates suited up for the Bruins, the NCAA Tournaments were less eventful than the middle of the season Christmas and New Year’s tournaments. For three years, UCLA was the basketball equivalent of the 1927 New York Yankees. The NCAA Tournament was no different than the Bruin Invitational, as UCLA beat Dayton, North Carolina, and Purdue so handily that the games were not meaningful. Alabama is going to do the same thing this year.

We believe that Clemson will edge Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, as the Tigers almost beat the Irish in South Bend without having Trevor Lawrence available. Notre Dame will assuredly drop to #4 in the playoff rankings, but they will stay in the top 4 to be Sugar Bowl fodder for Alabama. Ohio State and Clemson would then face off in the Rose Bowl. Ten days later, Alabama will run roughshod over the Ohio State-Clemson winner, most likely Clemson, and it will be like the Yankees-Dodgers in the World Series during the 1950’s, with Alabama being the Yankees.

If you ask us whether Ohio State deserves to be in the Playoffs, as they have only played five games, when the Big Ten had previously stated that a team had to play at least six games to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship, we have a somewhat divided opinion. First, we 100% agree that Ohio State should be in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Let’s say that rather than declare the Michigan game postponed, that Ohio State forfeited the game to show a six-game slate. Even with the one loss, Ohio State beats out Indiana on the tiebreaker, and it doesn’t affect their eye test rating. So, the Buckeyes deserve the East Division championship. We kind of compare this to the rule where a Major League batter can be the batting champion even if he fails to get the required 502 plate appearances in a 162-game schedule, if you take his at-bats and include additional outs until you reach the 502 required PA’s. If the batter still has the highest batting average with those outs added, he is the batting champion.

For example, in 1996, legendary hitter Tony Gwynn batted .353, but he only made 498 plate appearances, which did not qualify for the batting crown. He needed four additional plate appearances. With four outs added to Gwynn’s actual record, his batting average dropped to .349, which was still better than the next highest average, Rockies’ star Ellis Burks at .344. So, Gwynn won the batting title at .353.

Likewise, adding one loss to Ohio State’s record still allows the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East in a tiebreaker with Indiana.

That being said, do we believe that Ohio State is one of the four best teams in the nation this year? The short answer is that our own ratings show the Buckeyes to be the second best team. However, if we were on the Playoff Committee, we would be totally at a loss to separate Ohio State and USC. As for any of the G5 teams, we hate to say it, but none of them can play either Ohio State or USC to within 10 points. A G5 Playoff with Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose State would be quite entertaining and much better TV choices than the bowl games, even the New Year’s Six games. But, the only teams outside the current top four that should be in consideration for the Playoffs are USC and Texas A&M. Additionally, it is more accurate to state that the loser of the ACC Championship Game should be removed in favor of an undefeated USC team this year. A one-loss Texas A&M team that beat Florida and played Alabama better than any other opponent might be the second best team in the nation, and it would be hard to convince us that they don’t belong in the Big Four if the ACC loser loses by a substantial margin.

Here is our belief as to what will happen depending on whether each of the contenders win or lose this week.

Alabama–If the Crimson Tide wins, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed. If the Crimson Tide loses, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #3 seed.

Ohio State–If the Buckeyes win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed. If the Buckeyes lose, they are in a NY6 bowl and not in the playoffs.

Notre Dame–If the Irish win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 seed or Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed if Bama were to lose. If the Irish lose, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed.

Clemson–If the Tigers win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed based on what Ohio State does. If the Tigers lose, they are in the Orange Bowl and not in the playoffs.

Texas A&M–The Aggies must win and then hope for Clemson or Ohio State to lose, possibly Notre Dame to lose by 20 or more points. If the Aggies back into the Playoffs, they will be headed to the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed if Alabama is #1, or to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State or Notre Dame is #1

USC–Notre Dame must beat Clemson, and Northwestern must upset Ohio State, while USC beats Washington by 28 or more points, and Texas A&M doesn’t slaughter Tennessee.

Cincinnati–Clemson, Ohio State, and USC must lose, and maybe even Texas A&M.

Any 2-loss team–We don’t see any scenario where Oklahoma, Iowa State, Florida, or Clemson could make the playoffs with two losses.

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