The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 12, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 12-16, 2020

A Week In The Penthouse Doesn’t Mean To Open The Vault

Last week, when we posted the weekly selections, we hinted that we really liked a lot of picks that seemed to tilt the numbers slightly in our favor, or to be more precise, to overcome the percentage vigorish that the selections had on the other side.

We were correct much more often than incorrect last week, and it resulted in a little fake bonanza in imaginary Vegas Book. We hit on three Money Line Parlays at better than +100 odds, and we hit on three of five 10-point teasers to parlay the selections into a better than 30% profit for the week.

There were other selections that became void after last week’s post was published, as games were called off late due to Covid. Eight games are already off the boards this week as this post publishes, and there is a chance that one or more of this week’s choices will be taken off the board as well. We tried to anticipate which games have the greater chances of being cancelled and left them off this week’s consideration list.

Additionally, we eliminated some teams from consideration due to prior Covid concerns that have left these teams with too many weeks off and too many recovering key players. We only really went with one selection where a college team has played just one game so far–Wisconsin.

Our sentiment is that this week is considerably more difficult to isolate favorable selections. We rely more on the numbers than the actual teams in most of our selections, as Nevada rarely misses on lines this late in the season, even in this dysfunctional 2020 season.

What we have favored this week are the lines that help us move through the highest percentage of key numbers, both in spreads and totals for the teasers. We also used our in-house formula for maximizing money line parlay spreads with our own personal ratings and predicted win percentages.

As usual, please read our disclosure: The PiRates NEVER wager real money on these selections. This is strictly a fun exercise with numbers performed by a bunch of numbers’ nerds that just happened to have all played football, but on the other hand, we have all had concussions from playing football, and sometimes we appear to be a bit punch drunk. So, DON’T blow your Christmas Fund on selections you will see below.

That goes for you, Ms. Buckeye in Florida, who didn’t listen to the warning after reading it a zillion times and went and bet big on the Gators at +150 to beat Georgia outright last week. You won last week, so you are very likely to lose this week if you choose one selection from our list.

Date:Nov. 12-16
College 10-point Teasers @-110

1. SelectionOpponentLine
PurdueNorthwestern+12 1/2
Ole MissS. Carolina-1
OregonWash. St.Pk

2. Selection (CANCELLED)OpponentLine
Coastal Car.Troy– 1/2
Fresno St.Utah St.Pk
Ga. SouthernTexas St.Pk

College Money Line Parlays

3. Must WinOpponentOdds
WisconsinMichigan+118.99
RutgersIllinois

4. Must WinOpponentOdds
W. VirginiaTCU
Ga. SouthernTroy+178.70
Ole MissS. Carolina

5. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
UtahUCLA+132.03
IndianaMichigan St.

6. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
Arizona St.California+106.90
OregonWash. St.

NFL 10-point Teasers @ -110

7. TeamTeamTotal
TennesseeIndianapolisO38 1/2
ClevelandHoustonO39
New OrleansSan FranciscoO39

8. TeamTeamTotal
DetroitWashingtonO 36 1/2
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphiaO 34 1/2
MiamiLA ChargersO 38 1/2

NFL Money Line Parlays

9. Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayCarolina+155.57
MiamiLA Chargers

10. Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants+138.24
Las VegasDenver

11. Must WinOpponentOdds
New OrleansSan Francisco
BaltimoreNew England+162.57
ClevelandHouston

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