Fall 2020 College Football Preseason Ratings

Welcome to the start of the potentially most dysfunctional college football season in the history of the sport.

We release this preliminary preseason power ratings submission for your entertainment purposes only.  We make no claims that our preseason ratings this year will be any more accurate than throwing darts at a wall with the names of the teams affixed in tape.  With each toss of a dart, another team that isn’t taped that well might fall onto the floor and reduce the number of teams playing by one or two or 76.

The PiRates design our power ratings so that the average FBS team rates 100.0.  Above that number, a team is better than average by their rating minus 100 points.  Below that number, a team is weaker than average by 100 points minus their rating.

When there are 100 teams in the sample size, the total number of power ratings must equal 13,000  for the average to be 100.0.  Each time a college team announced they would not field a football squad this fall, reducing the number of teams in the sample, the average had to be recalculated based on the new sample.  The only time the ratings would not change would be if the team cancelling had ratings of 100.0 for the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings.  Of course, no teams met that qualification, so our ratings continually changed until we made it to where we are today with 76 teams scheduled to play football this Fall and 54 teams potentially scheduled to play football in the Spring.

Additionally, most of the 76 teams will play a conference only schedule.  That makes it quite difficult to compare teams in different leagues with no inter-conference games.  It basically makes every week of the projected college season like a new preseason, because only in the preseason do our ratings reflect zero inter-conference action.  Obviously, in any year, the preseason ratings are the least accurate of the entire season.  Thus, we expect our ratings to be poor when they are used to compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference.  On the bright side, with more conference games now on the schedule, in-season conference ratings should be a bit more accurate later in the year, just like they are in college basketball.

We are issuing our raw preseason ratings today in two forms.  First, we show you the 76-team sample as it is currently configured based on 76 teams continuing to plan to play football in 2020.  Next, we will show you how the season would have previewed had all 130 teams played as regularly planned.

The preseason rating you see will be recalculated before the first games are played, based on the evidence of players opting out and possibly others transferring in from schools that will not be playing.  Obviously, if Trevor Lawrence were to opt out at Clemson, the Tigers would immediately drop by several points in power rating.  And, if somehow Justin Fields was granted immediate eligibility and transferred to Notre Dame, the Irish would move up several points in power rating.  It will be a large task to keep on top of this, and then to monitor rosters during the season—–if there is a season.

Enjoy, if you can.

The New Reality–76 Team PiRate Ratings for Preseason 2020

 

PiRate Rankings 1-76

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Clemson	125.3
2	L S U	123.8
3	Alabama	122.3
4	Georgia	120.8
5	Florida	119.9
6	Auburn	117.5
7	Notre Dame	117.2
8	Oklahoma	117.0
9	Texas A&M	115.8
10	Texas	114.7
11	Oklahoma St.	113.3
12	North Carolina	111.8
13	Kentucky	110.8
14	Iowa St.	110.6
15	Louisville	110.1
16	Virginia Tech	109.9
17	UCF	109.8
18	Tennessee	109.2
19	Memphis	109.1
20	Cincinnati	109.1
21	South Carolina	108.3
22	Baylor	108.1
23	Ole Miss	107.1
24	Kansas St.	107.0
25	Florida St.	107.0
26	Virginia	106.4
27	T C U	104.3
28	Houston	103.7
29	Pittsburgh	103.6
30	Mississippi St.	103.4
31	Appalachian St.	103.2
32	Navy	103.0
33	Louisiana	102.2
34	SMU	101.7
35	BYU	101.3
36	Miami (Fla.)	101.2
37	West Virginia	100.7
38	Duke	100.2
39	Missouri	99.5
40	Boston College	99.5
41	Texas Tech	99.4
42	Wake Forest	98.7
43	Georgia Tech	98.0
44	Western Kentucky	96.7
45	Temple	96.2
46	Tulsa	96.1
47	Georgia Southern	96.0
48	Florida Int’l.	95.5
49	Syracuse	95.4
50	Marshall	95.3
51	Tulane	94.6
52	Arkansas	94.3
53	USF	94.2
54	NC State	93.6
55	U A B	93.4
56	Vanderbilt	92.6
57	Arkansas St.	92.6
58	East Carolina	91.9
59	Southern Miss.	91.3
60	Army	90.8
61	Kansas	89.5
62	Coastal Carolina	88.6
63	Middle Tennessee	87.8
64	Troy	87.8
65	Georgia St.	87.7
66	Louisiana Tech	87.4
67	Liberty	87.4
68	Charlotte	86.4
69	Rice	85.3
70	UL-Monroe	84.3
71	South Alabama	82.6
72	Florida Atlantic	81.9
73	North Texas	78.7
74	Texas St.	77.6
75	U T S A	76.3
76	U T E P	64.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0
SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6
USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2
East Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
AAC Averages	101.5	100.7	100.4	100.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3
Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2
North Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8
Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6
Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2
Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2
Boston College	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7
Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0
Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
ACC Averages	104.9	105.4	105.3	105.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0
Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
West Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7
Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4
Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5
Big 12 Averages	106.7	106.0	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3
U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4
Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3
Middle Tennessee	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8
Louisiana Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
Florida Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3
U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.0	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3
Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
Indep. Averages	92.7	94.0	92.7	93.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
South Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
Ole Miss	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
Mississippi St.	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2
Georgia Southern	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0
Coastal Carolina	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2
Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6
UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3
South Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6
Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6
Sun Averages	90.1	90.7	89.9	90.2

 

Conference Ranking

SEC	110.4
B12	106.5
ACC	105.2
AAC	100.9
Ind	93.2
SUN	90.2
CUSA	86.2

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What Might Have Been!

The original 130 team rankings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Ohio St.	131.5
2	Clemson	126.7
3	L S U	125.2
4	Alabama	123.7
5	Georgia	122.2
6	Penn St.	121.6
7	Wisconsin	121.5
8	Florida	121.3
9	Auburn	118.9
10	Oregon	118.8
11	Notre Dame	118.6
12	Oklahoma	118.4
13	Texas A&M	117.2
14	Texas	116.1
15	U S C	114.9
16	Oklahoma St.	114.7
17	North Carolina	113.2
18	Minnesota	112.9
19	Iowa	112.4
20	Michigan	112.4
21	Kentucky	112.2
22	Iowa St.	112.0
23	Louisville	111.5
24	Virginia Tech	111.3
25	UCF	111.2
26	Tennessee	110.6
27	Memphis	110.5
28	Cincinnati	110.5
29	Indiana	110.0
30	Washington	109.9
31	South Carolina	109.7
32	Baylor	109.5
33	Utah	109.3
34	Ole Miss	108.5
35	Kansas St.	108.4
36	Florida St.	108.4
37	Nebraska	108.0
38	Virginia	107.8
39	California	107.6
40	Arizona St.	107.6
41	Boise St.	107.0
42	Purdue	106.3
43	T C U	105.7
44	Houston	105.1
45	Pittsburgh	105.0
46	Mississippi St.	104.8
47	Washington St.	104.7
48	Appalachian St.	104.6
49	Navy	104.4
50	Northwestern	104.0
51	Illinois	103.9
52	Stanford	103.8
53	Louisiana	103.6
54	SMU	103.1
55	BYU	102.7
56	Michigan St.	102.7
57	Oregon St.	102.6
58	Miami (Fla.)	102.6
59	West Virginia	102.1
60	Duke	101.6
61	U C L A	101.0
62	Missouri	100.9
63	Boston College	100.9
64	Texas Tech	100.8
65	Arizona	100.4
66	Wake Forest	100.1
67	Air Force	100.0
68	Georgia Tech	99.4
69	Western Kentucky	98.1
70	Wyoming	97.9
71	Temple	97.6
72	Tulsa	97.5
73	Colorado	97.4
74	Georgia Southern	97.4
75	Buffalo	97.1
76	Florida Atlantic	96.9
77	Syracuse	96.8
78	Marshall	96.7
79	San Diego St.	96.6
80	Tulane	96.0
81	Arkansas	95.7
82	USF	95.6
83	Ohio	95.1
84	NC State	95.0
85	Rutgers	94.9
86	U A B	94.8
87	Hawaii	94.3
88	Maryland	94.2
89	Vanderbilt	94.0
90	Arkansas St.	94.0
91	Miami (Ohio)	93.9
92	East Carolina	93.3
93	Fresno St.	93.2
94	Utah St.	93.1
95	Central Michigan	93.0
96	Southern Miss.	92.7
97	Ball St.	92.5
98	Army	92.2
99	Colorado St.	91.4
100	Nevada	90.9
101	Kansas	90.9
102	Western Michigan	90.2
103	Coastal Carolina	90.0
104	Kent St.	89.6
105	San Jose St.	89.5
106	Middle Tennessee	89.2
107	Troy	89.2
108	Georgia St.	89.1
109	Louisiana Tech	88.8
110	Liberty	88.8
111	Toledo	88.7
112	Charlotte	87.8
113	Rice	86.7
114	UL-Monroe	85.7
115	South Alabama	84.0
116	U N L V	83.7
117	Northern Illinois	83.5
118	New Mexico	83.4
119	Florida Int’l.	83.3
120	Eastern Michigan	83.1
121	Old Dominion	81.7
122	Connecticut	81.4
123	North Texas	80.1
124	Texas St.	79.0
125	U T S A	77.7
126	New Mexico St.	76.5
127	Bowling Green	73.6
128	Akron	73.3
129	U T E P	66.3
130	UMass	65.7

 

Justin Fields, we feel for you, sir.  This looked like the year your Buckeyes were the class of college football, but we’ll never know what might have been.