The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 14, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 14, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:00 am

Friday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Canisius

Monmouth

1.2

Central Michigan

Akron

-4.4

Dartmouth

Columbia

6.3

Harvard

Cornell

14.1

Iona

Manhattan

1.9

Marist

Fairfield

0.5

North Dakota St.

Purdue Fort Wayne

11.9

Northern Kentucky

IUPUI

16.6

Pennsylvania

Brown

7.8

Princeton

Yale

-6.7

Saint Peter’s

Quinnipiac

5.5

Siena

Rider

3.7

South Dakota St.

Denver

15.6

St. Bonaventure

Davidson

0.6

Toledo

Buffalo

3.8

Wright St.

Illinois Chicago

11.1

 

Friday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Central Michigan

Akron

7:00 PM

ESPN3

Saint Peter’s

Quinnipiac

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Penn

Brown

7:00 PM

ESPNNews

Princeton

Yale

 

PiRate Ratings (Updated 2/14/20)

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conference

1

Kansas

121.4

Big 12

2

Gonzaga

120.5

West Coast

3

Duke

120.5

Atlantic Coast

4

Michigan St.

117.7

Big Ten

5

Baylor

117.6

Big 12

6

San Diego St.

116.5

Mountain West

7

Dayton

116.4

Atlantic 10

8

West Virginia

116.4

Big 12

9

Louisville

116.2

Atlantic Coast

10

Maryland

115.7

Big Ten

11

Arizona

115.7

Pac-12

12

Penn St.

115.4

Big Ten

13

Ohio St.

115.1

Big Ten

14

Texas Tech

114.6

Big 12

15

Florida St.

114.6

Atlantic Coast

16

Seton Hall

114.5

Big East

17

BYU

114.3

West Coast

18

Michigan

113.9

Big Ten

19

Marquette

113.7

Big East

20

Kentucky

113.5

Southeastern

21

Iowa

113.5

Big Ten

22

Purdue

113.4

Big Ten

23

Houston

113.4

American Athletic

24

Colorado

113.3

Pac-12

25

Oregon

113.2

Pac-12

26

Creighton

113.2

Big East

27

Auburn

112.9

Southeastern

28

Villanova

112.8

Big East

29

Butler

112.8

Big East

30

Illinois

112.4

Big Ten

31

LSU

112.1

Southeastern

32

Minnesota

112.0

Big Ten

33

Rutgers

111.9

Big Ten

34

Wisconsin

111.8

Big Ten

35

Oklahoma

111.3

Big 12

36

Arkansas

111.3

Southeastern

37

Florida

111.3

Southeastern

38

Indiana

111.1

Big Ten

39

Cincinnati

111.0

American Athletic

40

Alabama

110.8

Southeastern

41

Wichita St.

110.7

American Athletic

42

Utah St.

110.6

Mountain West

43

Saint Mary’s

110.3

West Coast

44

VCU

110.3

Atlantic 10

45

Xavier

110.1

Big East

46

Rhode Island

110.1

Atlantic 10

47

Mississippi St.

110.0

Southeastern

48

Stanford

109.8

Pac-12

49

Notre Dame

109.7

Atlantic Coast

50

Memphis

109.6

American Athletic

51

North Carolina St.

109.5

Atlantic Coast

52

Northern Iowa

109.4

Missouri Valley

53

Georgetown

109.4

Big East

54

Virginia

109.4

Atlantic Coast

55

Arizona St.

109.3

Pac-12

56

Washington

109.1

Pac-12

57

Tennessee

109.1

Southeastern

58

East Tennessee St.

109.0

Southern

59

USC

108.8

Pac-12

60

Syracuse

108.8

Atlantic Coast

61

Yale

108.8

Ivy

62

Providence

108.5

Big East

63

Richmond

108.5

Atlantic 10

64

South Carolina

108.1

Southeastern

65

Oklahoma St.

108.0

Big 12

66

Connecticut

108.0

American Athletic

67

UNC Greensboro

107.9

Southern

68

Georgia Tech

107.8

Atlantic Coast

69

Texas

107.8

Big 12

70

Iowa St.

107.6

Big 12

71

Oregon St.

107.5

Pac-12

72

St. John’s

107.5

Big East

73

Vermont

107.4

America East

74

North Carolina

107.4

Atlantic Coast

75

Furman

107.3

Southern

76

Clemson

107.2

Atlantic Coast

77

DePaul

107.1

Big East

78

Liberty

107.0

Atlantic Sun

79

SMU

107.0

American Athletic

80

Akron

106.9

Mid-American

81

Nevada

106.8

Mountain West

82

Mississippi

106.8

Southeastern

83

Davidson

106.8

Atlantic 10

84

Boise St.

106.7

Mountain West

85

Louisiana Tech

106.6

Conference USA

86

Kansas St.

106.2

Big 12

87

TCU

106.1

Big 12

88

Virginia Tech

106.1

Atlantic Coast

89

Belmont

106.1

Ohio Valley

90

Pittsburgh

106.0

Atlantic Coast

91

North Texas

106.0

Conference USA

92

San Francisco

105.9

West Coast

93

Wake Forest

105.9

Atlantic Coast

94

Tulsa

105.8

American Athletic

95

Georgia

105.6

Southeastern

96

Colorado St.

105.6

Mountain West

97

Duquesne

105.5

Atlantic 10

98

Temple

105.3

American Athletic

99

Missouri

105.2

Southeastern

100

UCLA

105.0

Pac-12

101

Northern Colorado

104.8

Big Sky

102

Saint Louis

104.8

Atlantic 10

103

New Mexico St.

104.8

Western Athletic

104

Loyola (Chi.)

104.7

Missouri Valley

105

Harvard

104.7

Ivy

106

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

Atlantic Coast

107

Utah

104.4

Pac-12

108

St. Bonaventure

104.4

Atlantic 10

109

Western Kentucky

104.3

Conference USA

110

Texas St.

104.2

Sun Belt

111

Georgia St.

104.1

Sun Belt

112

Bradley

103.9

Missouri Valley

113

Ball St.

103.9

Mid-American

114

South Florida

103.9

American Athletic

115

UC Irvine

103.8

Big West

116

Kent St.

103.6

Mid-American

117

Wright St.

103.6

Horizon

118

Washington St.

103.5

Pac-12

119

Indiana St.

103.5

Missouri Valley

120

Colgate

103.4

Patriot

121

Nebraska

103.3

Big Ten

122

Hofstra

103.2

Colonial Athletic

123

Stephen F. Austin

103.2

Southland

124

Central Florida

103.2

American Athletic

125

South Dakota St.

103.1

Summit

126

Northwestern

103.1

Big Ten

127

UT Arlington

102.7

Sun Belt

128

Winthrop

102.7

Big South

129

North Dakota St.

102.6

Summit

130

New Mexico

102.5

Mountain West

131

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

132

UNLV

102.4

Mountain West

133

Northern Kentucky

102.4

Horizon

134

Little Rock

102.2

Sun Belt

135

Toledo

102.0

Mid-American

136

Pacific

102.0

West Coast

137

Penn

101.7

Ivy

138

Charleston

101.6

Colonial Athletic

139

Santa Clara

101.6

West Coast

140

Northeastern

101.6

Colonial Athletic

141

Georgia Southern

101.3

Sun Belt

142

Missouri St.

101.3

Missouri Valley

143

Fresno St.

101.3

Mountain West

144

Wofford

101.3

Southern

145

Buffalo

101.2

Mid-American

146

Texas A&M

101.2

Southeastern

147

Southern Utah

101.1

Big Sky

148

Pepperdine

101.1

West Coast

149

Eastern Washington

101.0

Big Sky

150

Boston College

101.0

Atlantic Coast

151

Oral Roberts

101.0

Summit

152

Montana

101.0

Big Sky

153

Stony Brook

100.9

America East

154

George Mason

100.8

Atlantic 10

155

Austin Peay

100.8

Ohio Valley

156

Charlotte

100.7

Conference USA

157

Valparaiso

100.7

Missouri Valley

158

Marshall

100.7

Conference USA

159

Florida Int’l.

100.7

Conference USA

160

Old Dominion

100.5

Conference USA

161

Chattanooga

100.5

Southern

162

Bowling Green

100.5

Mid-American

163

Vanderbilt

100.4

Southeastern

164

North Florida

100.3

Atlantic Sun

165

Northern Illinois

100.3

Mid-American

166

Drake

100.2

Missouri Valley

167

Appalachian St.

100.2

Sun Belt

168

Western Carolina

100.1

Southern

169

South Dakota

100.1

Summit

170

California

100.0

Pac-12

171

Southern Illinois

99.9

Missouri Valley

172

UC Santa Barbara

99.9

Big West

173

Towson

99.9

Colonial Athletic

174

Radford

99.8

Big South

175

Boston U

99.8

Patriot

176

South Alabama

99.8

Sun Belt

177

Central Michigan

99.5

Mid-American

178

California Baptist

99.2

Western Athletic

179

Sam Houston St.

99.2

Southland

180

La Salle

99.1

Atlantic 10

181

Siena

99.1

Metro Atlantic

182

Princeton

99.1

Ivy

183

Ohio

98.9

Mid-American

184

UTEP

98.7

Conference USA

185

Delaware

98.6

Colonial Athletic

186

UAB

98.5

Conference USA

187

UTSA

98.5

Conference USA

188

Rider

98.4

Metro Atlantic

189

Tulane

98.3

American Athletic

190

Coastal Carolina

98.3

Sun Belt

191

Nicholls St.

98.3

Southland

192

William & Mary

98.2

Colonial Athletic

193

Abilene Christian

98.2

Southland

194

Portland St.

98.1

Big Sky

195

Hawaii

98.1

Big West

196

Massachusetts

98.1

Atlantic 10

197

St. Francis (PA)

98.1

Northeast

198

Eastern Michigan

97.9

Mid-American

199

Florida Atlantic

97.9

Conference USA

200

Air Force

97.8

Mountain West

201

Prairie View A&M

97.6

Southwestern Athl.

202

Sacred Heart

97.4

Northeast

203

Sacramento St.

97.4

Big Sky

204

Arkansas St.

97.4

Sun Belt

205

Lafayette

97.3

Patriot

206

Seattle

97.2

Western Athletic

207

Robert Morris

97.0

Northeast

208

Rice

97.0

Conference USA

209

Loyola Marymount

97.0

West Coast

210

Omaha

96.9

Summit

211

East Carolina

96.9

American Athletic

212

UC Riverside

96.9

Big West

213

Brown

96.9

Ivy

214

Illinois St.

96.9

Missouri Valley

215

San Diego

96.9

West Coast

216

Mercer

96.8

Southern

217

Dartmouth

96.8

Ivy

218

Monmouth

96.7

Metro Atlantic

219

Montana St.

96.7

Big Sky

220

Saint Peter’s

96.6

Metro Atlantic

221

American

96.6

Patriot

222

George Washington

96.5

Atlantic 10

223

UC Davis

96.5

Big West

224

Gardner-Webb

96.4

Big South

225

Northern Arizona

96.2

Big Sky

226

Merrimack

96.2

Northeast

227

Drexel

96.0

Colonial Athletic

228

North Dakota

96.0

Summit

229

Green Bay

95.9

Horizon

230

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.8

Western Athletic

231

Manhattan

95.7

Metro Atlantic

232

Oakland

95.7

Horizon

233

Louisiana

95.7

Sun Belt

234

Western Michigan

95.7

Mid-American

235

Grand Canyon

95.7

Western Athletic

236

Navy

95.7

Patriot

237

Youngstown St.

95.6

Horizon

238

Missouri-KC

95.6

Western Athletic

239

Illinois Chicago

95.5

Horizon

240

Eastern Illinois

95.4

Ohio Valley

241

Albany

95.4

America East

242

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

Western Athletic

243

Tennessee St.

95.2

Ohio Valley

244

Jacksonville

95.2

Atlantic Sun

245

Long Island

95.2

Northeast

246

Bryant

95.1

Northeast

247

Cal St. Northridge

95.1

Big West

248

McNeese St.

95.0

Southland

249

Miami (O)

95.0

Mid-American

250

Milwaukee

95.0

Horizon

251

Canisius

94.9

Metro Atlantic

252

Jacksonville St.

94.7

Ohio Valley

253

Southern Miss.

94.7

Conference USA

254

Bucknell

94.7

Patriot

255

Iona

94.6

Metro Atlantic

256

Norfolk St.

94.6

Mideastern Athletic

257

Fordham

94.3

Atlantic 10

258

Lipscomb

94.2

Atlantic Sun

259

New Hampshire

94.2

America East

260

Hartford

94.1

America East

261

Cal St. Fullerton

94.1

Big West

262

Quinnipiac

94.1

Metro Atlantic

263

Army

93.9

Patriot

264

Campbell

93.9

Big South

265

Weber St.

93.9

Big Sky

266

VMI

93.8

Southern

267

Texas Southern

93.8

Southwestern Athl.

268

Purdue Fort Wayne

93.7

Summit

269

Cornell

93.6

Ivy

270

Utah Valley

93.6

Western Athletic

271

Columbia

93.5

Ivy

272

Loyola (MD)

93.5

Patriot

273

Lamar

93.5

Southland

274

Saint Joseph’s

93.5

Atlantic 10

275

Troy

93.4

Sun Belt

276

Louisiana Monroe

93.3

Sun Belt

277

Evansville

93.3

Missouri Valley

278

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Conference USA

279

Mount St. Mary’s

93.3

Northeast

280

North Carolina Central

93.2

Mideastern Athletic

281

Portland

93.1

West Coast

282

Fairfield

93.0

Metro Atlantic

283

James Madison

93.0

Colonial Athletic

284

UM Baltimore Co.

93.0

America East

285

North Alabama

92.7

Atlantic Sun

286

Wyoming

92.7

Mountain West

287

Detroit

92.7

Horizon

288

UMass Lowell

92.5

America East

289

Stetson

92.4

Atlantic Sun

290

Bethune Cookman

92.4

Mideastern Athletic

291

Idaho St.

92.4

Big Sky

292

Texas A&M CC

92.4

Southland

293

Central Arkansas

92.3

Southland

294

Elon

92.2

Colonial Athletic

295

NJIT

92.1

Atlantic Sun

296

Fairleigh Dickinson

92.0

Northeast

297

Eastern Kentucky

92.0

Ohio Valley

298

UNC Asheville

91.9

Big South

299

San Jose St.

91.9

Mountain West

300

Morehead St.

91.8

Ohio Valley

301

Samford

91.7

Southern

302

North Carolina A&T

91.7

Mideastern Athletic

303

Idaho

91.7

Big Sky

304

Charleston Southern

91.4

Big South

305

Niagara

91.3

Metro Atlantic

306

Jackson St.

91.3

Southwestern Athl.

307

Long Beach St.

91.3

Big West

308

UNC Wilmington

91.2

Colonial Athletic

309

Cleveland St.

91.1

Horizon

310

Cal Poly

91.0

Big West

311

Lehigh

91.0

Patriot

312

Grambling

91.0

Southwestern Athl.

313

St. Francis (NY)

91.0

Northeast

314

Florida Gulf Coast

90.9

Atlantic Sun

315

Longwood

90.8

Big South

316

Florida A&M

90.7

Mideastern Athletic

317

New Orleans

90.7

Southland

318

Southern

90.6

Southwestern Athl.

319

Denver

90.5

Summit

320

Marist

90.5

Metro Atlantic

321

Northwestern St.

90.5

Southland

322

Alcorn St.

90.1

Southwestern Athl.

323

Morgan St.

90.1

Mideastern Athletic

324

UT-Martin

89.9

Ohio Valley

325

Citadel

89.9

Southern

326

USC Upstate

89.8

Big South

327

Western Illinois

89.1

Summit

328

Hampton

89.0

Big South

329

Alabama St.

88.9

Southwestern Athl.

330

IUPUI

88.8

Horizon

331

Maine

88.7

America East

332

Presbyterian

88.3

Big South

333

South Carolina St.

88.2

Mideastern Athletic

334

Coppin St.

88.0

Mideastern Athletic

335

Tennessee Tech

87.9

Ohio Valley

336

SIU Edwardsville

87.8

Ohio Valley

337

SE Missouri

87.8

Ohio Valley

338

Binghamton

87.7

America East

339

Wagner

87.3

Northeast

340

Holy Cross

86.7

Patriot

341

SE Louisiana

86.6

Southland

342

High Point

85.9

Big South

343

Alabama A&M

85.8

Southwestern Athl.

344

Houston Baptist

84.8

Southland

345

Incarnate Word

84.1

Southland

346

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.0

Southwestern Athl.

347

Central Connecticut

82.0

Northeast

348

Howard

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

349

MD Eastern Shore

81.7

Mideastern Athletic

350

Kennesaw St.

81.0

Atlantic Sun

351

Delaware St.

79.9

Mideastern Athletic

352

Chicago St.

77.5

Western Athletic

353

Mississippi Valley St.

77.2

Southwestern Athl.

 

Alphabetical

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conf.

1

Abilene Christian

98.2

Southland

2

Air Force

97.8

Mountain West

3

Akron

106.9

Mid-American

4

Alabama

110.8

Southeastern

5

Alabama A&M

85.8

Southwestern Athl.

6

Alabama St.

88.9

Southwestern Athl.

7

Albany

95.4

America East

8

Alcorn St.

90.1

Southwestern Athl.

9

American

96.6

Patriot

10

Appalachian St.

100.2

Sun Belt

11

Arizona

115.7

Pac-12

12

Arizona St.

109.3

Pac-12

13

Arkansas

111.3

Southeastern

14

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.0

Southwestern Athl.

15

Arkansas St.

97.4

Sun Belt

16

Army

93.9

Patriot

17

Auburn

112.9

Southeastern

18

Austin Peay

100.8

Ohio Valley

19

Ball St.

103.9

Mid-American

20

Baylor

117.6

Big 12

21

Belmont

106.1

Ohio Valley

22

Bethune Cookman

92.4

Mideastern Athletic

23

Binghamton

87.7

America East

24

Boise St.

106.7

Mountain West

25

Boston College

101.0

Atlantic Coast

26

Boston U

99.8

Patriot

27

Bowling Green

100.5

Mid-American

28

Bradley

103.9

Missouri Valley

29

Brown

96.9

Ivy

30

Bryant

95.1

Northeast

31

Bucknell

94.7

Patriot

32

Buffalo

101.2

Mid-American

33

Butler

112.8

Big East

34

BYU

114.3

West Coast

35

Cal Poly

91.0

Big West

36

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.8

Western Athletic

37

Cal St. Fullerton

94.1

Big West

38

Cal St. Northridge

95.1

Big West

39

California

100.0

Pac-12

40

California Baptist

99.2

Western Athletic

41

Campbell

93.9

Big South

42

Canisius

94.9

Metro Atlantic

43

Central Arkansas

92.3

Southland

44

Central Connecticut

82.0

Northeast

45

Central Florida

103.2

American Athletic

46

Central Michigan

99.5

Mid-American

47

Charleston

101.6

Colonial Athletic

48

Charleston Southern

91.4

Big South

49

Charlotte

100.7

Conference USA

50

Chattanooga

100.5

Southern

51

Chicago St.

77.5

Western Athletic

52

Cincinnati

111.0

American Athletic

53

Citadel

89.9

Southern

54

Clemson

107.2

Atlantic Coast

55

Cleveland St.

91.1

Horizon

56

Coastal Carolina

98.3

Sun Belt

57

Colgate

103.4

Patriot

58

Colorado

113.3

Pac-12

59

Colorado St.

105.6

Mountain West

60

Columbia

93.5

Ivy

61

Connecticut

108.0

American Athletic

62

Coppin St.

88.0

Mideastern Athletic

63

Cornell

93.6

Ivy

64

Creighton

113.2

Big East

65

Dartmouth

96.8

Ivy

66

Davidson

106.8

Atlantic 10

67

Dayton

116.4

Atlantic 10

68

Delaware

98.6

Colonial Athletic

69

Delaware St.

79.9

Mideastern Athletic

70

Denver

90.5

Summit

71

DePaul

107.1

Big East

72

Detroit

92.7

Horizon

73

Drake

100.2

Missouri Valley

74

Drexel

96.0

Colonial Athletic

75

Duke

120.5

Atlantic Coast

76

Duquesne

105.5

Atlantic 10

77

East Carolina

96.9

American Athletic

78

East Tennessee St.

109.0

Southern

79

Eastern Illinois

95.4

Ohio Valley

80

Eastern Kentucky

92.0

Ohio Valley

81

Eastern Michigan

97.9

Mid-American

82

Eastern Washington

101.0

Big Sky

83

Elon

92.2

Colonial Athletic

84

Evansville

93.3

Missouri Valley

85

Fairfield

93.0

Metro Atlantic

86

Fairleigh Dickinson

92.0

Northeast

87

Florida

111.3

Southeastern

88

Florida A&M

90.7

Mideastern Athletic

89

Florida Atlantic

97.9

Conference USA

90

Florida Gulf Coast

90.9

Atlantic Sun

91

Florida Int’l.

100.7

Conference USA

92

Florida St.

114.6

Atlantic Coast

93

Fordham

94.3

Atlantic 10

94

Fresno St.

101.3

Mountain West

95

Furman

107.3

Southern

96

Gardner-Webb

96.4

Big South

97

George Mason

100.8

Atlantic 10

98

George Washington

96.5

Atlantic 10

99

Georgetown

109.4

Big East

100

Georgia

105.6

Southeastern

101

Georgia Southern

101.3

Sun Belt

102

Georgia St.

104.1

Sun Belt

103

Georgia Tech

107.8

Atlantic Coast

104

Gonzaga

120.5

West Coast

105

Grambling

91.0

Southwestern Athl.

106

Grand Canyon

95.7

Western Athletic

107

Green Bay

95.9

Horizon

108

Hampton

89.0

Big South

109

Hartford

94.1

America East

110

Harvard

104.7

Ivy

111

Hawaii

98.1

Big West

112

High Point

85.9

Big South

113

Hofstra

103.2

Colonial Athletic

114

Holy Cross

86.7

Patriot

115

Houston

113.4

American Athletic

116

Houston Baptist

84.8

Southland

117

Howard

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

118

Idaho

91.7

Big Sky

119

Idaho St.

92.4

Big Sky

120

Illinois

112.4

Big Ten

121

Illinois Chicago

95.5

Horizon

122

Illinois St.

96.9

Missouri Valley

123

Incarnate Word

84.1

Southland

124

Indiana

111.1

Big Ten

125

Indiana St.

103.5

Missouri Valley

126

Iona

94.6

Metro Atlantic

127

Iowa

113.5

Big Ten

128

Iowa St.

107.6

Big 12

129

IUPUI

88.8

Horizon

130

Jackson St.

91.3

Southwestern Athl.

131

Jacksonville

95.2

Atlantic Sun

132

Jacksonville St.

94.7

Ohio Valley

133

James Madison

93.0

Colonial Athletic

134

Kansas

121.4

Big 12

135

Kansas St.

106.2

Big 12

136

Kennesaw St.

81.0

Atlantic Sun

137

Kent St.

103.6

Mid-American

138

Kentucky

113.5

Southeastern

139

La Salle

99.1

Atlantic 10

140

Lafayette

97.3

Patriot

141

Lamar

93.5

Southland

142

Lehigh

91.0

Patriot

143

Liberty

107.0

Atlantic Sun

144

Lipscomb

94.2

Atlantic Sun

145

Little Rock

102.2

Sun Belt

146

Long Beach St.

91.3

Big West

147

Long Island

95.2

Northeast

148

Longwood

90.8

Big South

149

Louisiana

95.7

Sun Belt

150

Louisiana Monroe

93.3

Sun Belt

151

Louisiana Tech

106.6

Conference USA

152

Louisville

116.2

Atlantic Coast

153

Loyola (Chi.)

104.7

Missouri Valley

154

Loyola Marymount

97.0

West Coast

155

Loyola (MD)

93.5

Patriot

156

LSU

112.1

Southeastern

157

Maine

88.7

America East

158

Manhattan

95.7

Metro Atlantic

159

Marist

90.5

Metro Atlantic

160

Marquette

113.7

Big East

161

Marshall

100.7

Conference USA

162

Maryland

115.7

Big Ten

163

Massachusetts

98.1

Atlantic 10

164

McNeese St.

95.0

Southland

165

MD Eastern Shore

81.7

Mideastern Athletic

166

Memphis

109.6

American Athletic

167

Mercer

96.8

Southern

168

Merrimack

96.2

Northeast

169

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

Atlantic Coast

170

Miami (O)

95.0

Mid-American

171

Michigan

113.9

Big Ten

172

Michigan St.

117.7

Big Ten

173

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Conference USA

174

Milwaukee

95.0

Horizon

175

Minnesota

112.0

Big Ten

176

Mississippi

106.8

Southeastern

177

Mississippi St.

110.0

Southeastern

178

Mississippi Valley St.

77.2

Southwestern Athl.

179

Missouri

105.2

Southeastern

180

Missouri-KC

95.6

Western Athletic

181

Missouri St.

101.3

Missouri Valley

182

Monmouth

96.7

Metro Atlantic

183

Montana

101.0

Big Sky

184

Montana St.

96.7

Big Sky

185

Morehead St.

91.8

Ohio Valley

186

Morgan St.

90.1

Mideastern Athletic

187

Mount St. Mary’s

93.3

Northeast

188

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

189

Navy

95.7

Patriot

190

Nebraska

103.3

Big Ten

191

Nevada

106.8

Mountain West

192

New Hampshire

94.2

America East

193

New Mexico

102.5

Mountain West

194

New Mexico St.

104.8

Western Athletic

195

New Orleans

90.7

Southland

196

Niagara

91.3

Metro Atlantic

197

Nicholls St.

98.3

Southland

198

NJIT

92.1

Atlantic Sun

199

Norfolk St.

94.6

Mideastern Athletic

200

North Alabama

92.7

Atlantic Sun

201

North Carolina

107.4

Atlantic Coast

202

North Carolina A&T

91.7

Mideastern Athletic

203

North Carolina Central

93.2

Mideastern Athletic

204

North Carolina St.

109.5

Atlantic Coast

205

North Dakota

96.0

Summit

206

North Dakota St.

102.6

Summit

207

North Florida

100.3

Atlantic Sun

208

North Texas

106.0

Conference USA

209

Northeastern

101.6

Colonial Athletic

210

Northern Arizona

96.2

Big Sky

211

Northern Colorado

104.8

Big Sky

212

Northern Illinois

100.3

Mid-American

213

Northern Iowa

109.4

Missouri Valley

214

Northern Kentucky

102.4

Horizon

215

Northwestern

103.1

Big Ten

216

Northwestern St.

90.5

Southland

217

Notre Dame

109.7

Atlantic Coast

218

Oakland

95.7

Horizon

219

Ohio

98.9

Mid-American

220

Ohio St.

115.1

Big Ten

221

Oklahoma

111.3

Big 12

222

Oklahoma St.

108.0

Big 12

223

Old Dominion

100.5

Conference USA

224

Omaha

96.9

Summit

225

Oral Roberts

101.0

Summit

226

Oregon

113.2

Pac-12

227

Oregon St.

107.5

Pac-12

228

Pacific

102.0

West Coast

229

Penn

101.7

Ivy

230

Penn St.

115.4

Big Ten

231

Pepperdine

101.1

West Coast

232

Pittsburgh

106.0

Atlantic Coast

233

Portland

93.1

West Coast

234

Portland St.

98.1

Big Sky

235

Prairie View A&M

97.6

Southwestern Athl.

236

Presbyterian

88.3

Big South

237

Princeton

99.1

Ivy

238

Providence

108.5

Big East

239

Purdue

113.4

Big Ten

240

Purdue Fort Wayne

93.7

Summit

241

Quinnipiac

94.1

Metro Atlantic

242

Radford

99.8

Big South

243

Rhode Island

110.1

Atlantic 10

244

Rice

97.0

Conference USA

245

Richmond

108.5

Atlantic 10

246

Rider

98.4

Metro Atlantic

247

Robert Morris

97.0

Northeast

248

Rutgers

111.9

Big Ten

249

Sacramento St.

97.4

Big Sky

250

Sacred Heart

97.4

Northeast

251

Saint Joseph’s

93.5

Atlantic 10

252

Saint Louis

104.8

Atlantic 10

253

Saint Mary’s

110.3

West Coast

254

Saint Peter’s

96.6

Metro Atlantic

255

Sam Houston St.

99.2

Southland

256

Samford

91.7

Southern

257

San Diego

96.9

West Coast

258

San Diego St.

116.5

Mountain West

259

San Francisco

105.9

West Coast

260

San Jose St.

91.9

Mountain West

261

Santa Clara

101.6

West Coast

262

SE Louisiana

86.6

Southland

263

SE Missouri

87.8

Ohio Valley

264

Seattle

97.2

Western Athletic

265

Seton Hall

114.5

Big East

266

Siena

99.1

Metro Atlantic

267

SIU Edwardsville

87.8

Ohio Valley

268

SMU

107.0

American Athletic

269

South Alabama

99.8

Sun Belt

270

South Carolina

108.1

Southeastern

271

South Carolina St.

88.2

Mideastern Athletic

272

South Dakota

100.1

Summit

273

South Dakota St.

103.1

Summit

274

South Florida

103.9

American Athletic

275

Southern

90.6

Southwestern Athl.

276

Southern Illinois

99.9

Missouri Valley

277

Southern Miss.

94.7

Conference USA

278

Southern Utah

101.1

Big Sky

279

St. Bonaventure

104.4

Atlantic 10

280

St. Francis (NY)

91.0

Northeast

281

St. Francis (PA)

98.1

Northeast

282

St. John’s

107.5

Big East

283

Stanford

109.8

Pac-12

284

Stephen F. Austin

103.2

Southland

285

Stetson

92.4

Atlantic Sun

286

Stony Brook

100.9

America East

287

Syracuse

108.8

Atlantic Coast

288

TCU

106.1

Big 12

289

Temple

105.3

American Athletic

290

Tennessee

109.1

Southeastern

291

Tennessee St.

95.2

Ohio Valley

292

Tennessee Tech

87.9

Ohio Valley

293

Texas

107.8

Big 12

294

Texas A&M

101.2

Southeastern

295

Texas A&M CC

92.4

Southland

296

Texas Southern

93.8

Southwestern Athl.

297

Texas St.

104.2

Sun Belt

298

Texas Tech

114.6

Big 12

299

Toledo

102.0

Mid-American

300

Towson

99.9

Colonial Athletic

301

Troy

93.4

Sun Belt

302

Tulane

98.3

American Athletic

303

Tulsa

105.8

American Athletic

304

UAB

98.5

Conference USA

305

UC Davis

96.5

Big West

306

UC Irvine

103.8

Big West

307

UC Riverside

96.9

Big West

308

UC Santa Barbara

99.9

Big West

309

UCLA

105.0

Pac-12

310

UM Baltimore Co.

93.0

America East

311

UMass Lowell

92.5

America East

312

UNC Asheville

91.9

Big South

313

UNC Greensboro

107.9

Southern

314

UNC Wilmington

91.2

Colonial Athletic

315

UNLV

102.4

Mountain West

316

USC

108.8

Pac-12

317

USC Upstate

89.8

Big South

318

UT Arlington

102.7

Sun Belt

319

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

Western Athletic

320

UT-Martin

89.9

Ohio Valley

321

Utah

104.4

Pac-12

322

Utah St.

110.6

Mountain West

323

Utah Valley

93.6

Western Athletic

324

UTEP

98.7

Conference USA

325

UTSA

98.5

Conference USA

326

Valparaiso

100.7

Missouri Valley

327

Vanderbilt

100.4

Southeastern

328

VCU

110.3

Atlantic 10

329

Vermont

107.4

America East

330

Villanova

112.8

Big East

331

Virginia

109.4

Atlantic Coast

332

Virginia Tech

106.1

Atlantic Coast

333

VMI

93.8

Southern

334

Wagner

87.3

Northeast

335

Wake Forest

105.9

Atlantic Coast

336

Washington

109.1

Pac-12

337

Washington St.

103.5

Pac-12

338

Weber St.

93.9

Big Sky

339

West Virginia

116.4

Big 12

340

Western Carolina

100.1

Southern

341

Western Illinois

89.1

Summit

342

Western Kentucky

104.3

Conference USA

343

Western Michigan

95.7

Mid-American

344

Wichita St.

110.7

American Athletic

345

William & Mary

98.2

Colonial Athletic

346

Winthrop

102.7

Big South

347

Wisconsin

111.8

Big Ten

348

Wofford

101.3

Southern

349

Wright St.

103.6

Horizon

350

Wyoming

92.7

Mountain West

351

Xavier

110.1

Big East

352

Yale

108.8

Ivy

353

Youngstown St.

95.6

Horizon

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

#

America East

PiRate

1

Vermont

107.4

2

Stony Brook

100.9

3

Albany

95.4

4

New Hampshire

94.2

5

Hartford

94.1

6

UM Baltimore Co.

93.0

7

UMass Lowell

92.5

8

Maine

88.7

9

Binghamton

87.7

Avg

America East

94.9

 

 

#

American Athletic

PiRate

1

Houston

113.4

2

Cincinnati

111.0

3

Wichita St.

110.7

4

Memphis

109.6

5

Connecticut

108.0

6

SMU

107.0

7

Tulsa

105.8

8

Temple

105.3

9

South Florida

103.9

10

Central Florida

103.2

11

Tulane

98.3

12

East Carolina

96.9

Avg

American Athletic

106.1

 

 

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

1

Dayton

116.4

2

VCU

110.3

3

Rhode Island

110.1

4

Richmond

108.5

5

Davidson

106.8

6

Duquesne

105.5

7

Saint Louis

104.8

8

St. Bonaventure

104.4

9

George Mason

100.8

10

La Salle

99.1

11

Massachusetts

98.1

12

George Washington

96.5

13

Fordham

94.3

14

Saint Joseph’s

93.5

Avg.

Atlantic 10

103.5

 

 

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

120.5

2

Louisville

116.2

3

Florida St.

114.6

4

Notre Dame

109.7

5

North Carolina St.

109.5

6

Virginia

109.4

7

Syracuse

108.8

8

Georgia Tech

107.8

9

North Carolina

107.4

10

Clemson

107.2

11

Virginia Tech

106.1

12

Pittsburgh

106.0

13

Wake Forest

105.9

14

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

15

Boston College

101.0

Avg

Atlantic Coast

109.0

 

 

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

1

Liberty

107.0

2

North Florida

100.3

3

Jacksonville

95.2

4

Lipscomb

94.2

5

North Alabama

92.7

6

Stetson

92.4

7

NJIT

92.1

8

Florida Gulf Coast

90.9

9

Kennesaw St.

81.0

Avg

Atlantic Sun

94.0

 

 

#

Big 12

PiRate

1

Kansas

121.4

2

Baylor

117.6

3

West Virginia

116.4

4

Texas Tech

114.6

5

Oklahoma

111.3

6

Oklahoma St.

108.0

7

Texas

107.8

8

Iowa St.

107.6

9

Kansas St.

106.2

10

TCU

106.1

Avg

Big 12

111.7

 

 

#

Big East

PiRate

1

Seton Hall

114.5

2

Marquette

113.7

3

Creighton

113.2

4

Villanova

112.8

5

Butler

112.8

6

Xavier

110.1

7

Georgetown

109.4

8

Providence

108.5

9

St. John’s

107.5

10

DePaul

107.1

Avg

Big East

111.0

 

 

#

Big Sky

PiRate

1

Northern Colorado

104.8

2

Southern Utah

101.1

3

Eastern Washington

101.0

4

Montana

101.0

5

Portland St.

98.1

6

Sacramento St.

97.4

7

Montana St.

96.7

8

Northern Arizona

96.2

9

Weber St.

93.9

10

Idaho St.

92.4

11

Idaho

91.7

#

Big Sky

97.7

 

 

#

Big South

PiRate

1

Winthrop

102.7

2

Radford

99.8

3

Gardner-Webb

96.4

4

Campbell

93.9

5

UNC Asheville

91.9

6

Charleston Southern

91.4

7

Longwood

90.8

8

USC Upstate

89.8

9

Hampton

89.0

10

Presbyterian

88.3

11

High Point

85.9

Avg

Big South

92.7

 

 

#

Big Ten

PiRate

1

Michigan St.

117.7

2

Maryland

115.7

3

Penn St.

115.4

4

Ohio St.

115.1

5

Michigan

113.9

6

Iowa

113.5

7

Purdue

113.4

8

Illinois

112.4

9

Minnesota

112.0

10

Rutgers

111.9

11

Wisconsin

111.8

12

Indiana

111.1

13

Nebraska

103.3

14

Northwestern

103.1

Avg

Big Ten

112.2

 

 

#

Big West

PiRate

1

UC Irvine

103.8

2

UC Santa Barbara

99.9

3

Hawaii

98.1

4

UC Riverside

96.9

5

UC Davis

96.5

6

Cal St. Northridge

95.1

7

Cal St. Fullerton

94.1

8

Long Beach St.

91.3

9

Cal Poly

91.0

Avg

Big West

96.3

 

 

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

1

Hofstra

103.2

2

Charleston

101.6

3

Northeastern

101.6

4

Towson

99.9

5

Delaware

98.6

6

William & Mary

98.2

7

Drexel

96.0

8

James Madison

93.0

9

Elon

92.2

10

UNC Wilmington

91.2

Avg

Colonial Athletic

97.6

 

 

#

Conference USA

PiRate

1

Louisiana Tech

106.6

2

North Texas

106.0

3

Western Kentucky

104.3

4

Charlotte

100.7

5

Marshall

100.7

6

Florida Int’l.

100.7

7

Old Dominion

100.5

8

UTEP

98.7

9

UAB

98.5

10

UTSA

98.5

11

Florida Atlantic

97.9

12

Rice

97.0

13

Southern Miss.

94.7

14

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Avg

Conference USA

99.9

 

 

#

Horizon

PiRate

1

Wright St.

103.6

2

Northern Kentucky

102.4

3

Green Bay

95.9

4

Oakland

95.7

5

Youngstown St.

95.6

6

Illinois Chicago

95.5

7

Milwaukee

95.0

8

Detroit

92.7

9

Cleveland St.

91.1

10

IUPUI

88.8

Avg

Horizon

95.6

 

 

#

Ivy

PiRate

1

Yale

108.8

2

Harvard

104.7

3

Penn

101.7

4

Princeton

99.1

5

Brown

96.9

6

Dartmouth

96.8

7

Cornell

93.6

8

Columbia

93.5

Avg

Ivy

99.4

 

 

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

1

Siena

99.1

2

Rider

98.4

3

Monmouth

96.7

4

Saint Peter’s

96.6

5

Manhattan

95.7

6

Canisius

94.9

7

Iona

94.6

8

Quinnipiac

94.1

9

Fairfield

93.0

10

Niagara

91.3

11

Marist

90.5

Avg

Metro Atlantic

95.0

 

 

#

Mid-American

PiRate

1

Akron

106.9

2

Ball St.

103.9

3

Kent St.

103.6

4

Toledo

102.0

5

Buffalo

101.2

6

Bowling Green

100.5

7

Northern Illinois

100.3

8

Central Michigan

99.5

9

Ohio

98.9

10

Eastern Michigan

97.9

11

Western Michigan

95.7

12

Miami (O)

95.0

Avg

Mid-American

100.5

 

 

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

1

Norfolk St.

94.6

2

North Carolina Central

93.2

3

Bethune Cookman

92.4

4

North Carolina A&T

91.7

5

Florida A&M

90.7

6

Morgan St.

90.1

7

South Carolina St.

88.2

8

Coppin St.

88.0

9

Howard

81.8

10

MD Eastern Shore

81.7

11

Delaware St.

79.9

Avg

Mideastern Athletic

88.4

 

 

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

1

Northern Iowa

109.4

2

Loyola (Chi.)

104.7

3

Bradley

103.9

4

Indiana St.

103.5

5

Missouri St.

101.3

6

Valparaiso

100.7

7

Drake

100.2

8

Southern Illinois

99.9

9

Illinois St.

96.9

10

Evansville

93.3

Avg

Missouri Valley

101.4

 

 

#

Mountain West

PiRate

1

San Diego St.

116.5

2

Utah St.

110.6

3

Nevada

106.8

4

Boise St.

106.7

5

Colorado St.

105.6

6

New Mexico

102.5

7

UNLV

102.4

8

Fresno St.

101.3

9

Air Force

97.8

10

Wyoming

92.7

11

San Jose St.

91.9

Avg

Mountain West

103.2

 

 

#

Northeast

PiRate

1

St. Francis (PA)

98.1

2

Sacred Heart

97.4

3

Robert Morris

97.0

4

Merrimack

96.2

5

Long Island

95.2

6

Bryant

95.1

7

Mount St. Mary’s

93.3

8

Fairleigh Dickinson

92.0

9

St. Francis (NY)

91.0

10

Wagner

87.3

11

Central Connecticut

82.0

Avg

Northeast

93.1

 

 

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

1

Belmont

106.1

2

Murray St.

102.5

3

Austin Peay

100.8

4

Eastern Illinois

95.4

5

Tennessee St.

95.2

6

Jacksonville St.

94.7

7

Eastern Kentucky

92.0

8

Morehead St.

91.8

9

UT-Martin

89.9

10

Tennessee Tech

87.9

11

SIU Edwardsville

87.8

12

SE Missouri

87.8

Avg

Ohio Valley

94.3

 

 

#

Pac-12

PiRate

1

Arizona

115.7

2

Colorado

113.3

3

Oregon

113.2

4

Stanford

109.8

5

Arizona St.

109.3

6

Washington

109.1

7

USC

108.8

8

Oregon St.

107.5

9

UCLA

105.0

10

Utah

104.4

11

Washington St.

103.5

12

California

100.0

Avg

Pac-12

108.3

 

 

#

Patriot

PiRate

1

Colgate

103.4

2

Boston U

99.8

3

Lafayette

97.3

4

American

96.6

5

Navy

95.7

6

Bucknell

94.7

7

Army

93.9

8

Loyola (MD)

93.5

9

Lehigh

91.0

10

Holy Cross

86.7

Avg

Patriot

95.3

 

 

#

Southeastern

PiRate

1

Kentucky

113.5

2

Auburn

112.9

3

LSU

112.1

4

Arkansas

111.3

5

Florida

111.3

6

Alabama

110.8

7

Mississippi St.

110.0

8

Tennessee

109.1

9

South Carolina

108.1

10

Mississippi

106.8

11

Georgia

105.6

12

Missouri

105.2

13

Texas A&M

101.2

14

Vanderbilt

100.4

Avg

Southeastern

108.5

 

 

#

Southern

PiRate

1

East Tennessee St.

109.0

2

UNC Greensboro

107.9

3

Furman

107.3

4

Wofford

101.3

5

Chattanooga

100.5

6

Western Carolina

100.1

7

Mercer

96.8

8

VMI

93.8

9

Samford

91.7

10

Citadel

89.9

Avg

Southern

99.8

 

 

#

Southland

PiRate

1

Stephen F. Austin

103.2

2

Sam Houston St.

99.2

3

Nicholls St.

98.3

4

Abilene Christian

98.2

5

McNeese St.

95.0

6

Lamar

93.5

7

Texas A&M CC

92.4

8

Central Arkansas

92.3

9

New Orleans

90.7

10

Northwestern St.

90.5

11

SE Louisiana

86.6

12

Houston Baptist

84.8

13

Incarnate Word

84.1

Avg

Southland

93.0

 

 

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

1

Prairie View A&M

97.6

2

Texas Southern

93.8

3

Jackson St.

91.3

4

Grambling

91.0

5

Southern

90.6

6

Alcorn St.

90.1

7

Alabama St.

88.9

8

Alabama A&M

85.8

9

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.0

10

Mississippi Valley St.

77.2

Avg

Southwestern Athletic

88.9

 

 

#

Summit

PiRate

1

South Dakota St.

103.1

2

North Dakota St.

102.6

3

Oral Roberts

101.0

4

South Dakota

100.1

5

Omaha

96.9

6

North Dakota

96.0

7

Purdue Fort Wayne

93.7

8

Denver

90.5

9

Western Illinois

89.1

Avg

Summit

97.0

 

 

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

1

Texas St.

104.2

2

Georgia St.

104.1

3

UT Arlington

102.7

4

Little Rock

102.2

5

Georgia Southern

101.3

6

Appalachian St.

100.2

7

South Alabama

99.8

8

Coastal Carolina

98.3

9

Arkansas St.

97.4

10

Louisiana

95.7

11

Troy

93.4

12

Louisiana Monroe

93.3

Avg

Sun Belt

99.4

 

 

#

West Coast

PiRate

1

Gonzaga

120.5

2

BYU

114.3

3

Saint Mary’s

110.3

4

San Francisco

105.9

5

Pacific

102.0

6

Santa Clara

101.6

7

Pepperdine

101.1

8

Loyola Marymount

97.0

9

San Diego

96.9

10

Portland

93.1

Avg

West Coast

104.3

 

 

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

1

New Mexico St.

104.8

2

California Baptist

99.2

3

Seattle

97.2

4

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.8

5

Grand Canyon

95.7

6

Missouri-KC

95.6

7

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

8

Utah Valley

93.6

9

Chicago St.

77.5

Avg

Western Athletic

94.9

 

Conference Rankings

 

#

Conference

PiRate

1

Big Ten

112.2

2

Big 12

111.7

3

Big East

111.0

4

Atlantic Coast

109.0

5

Southeastern

108.5

6

Pac-12

108.3

7

American Athletic

106.1

8

West Coast

104.3

9

Atlantic 10

103.5

10

Mountain West

103.2

11

Missouri Valley

101.4

12

Mid-American

100.5

13

Conference USA

99.9

14

Southern

99.8

15

Sun Belt

99.4

16

Ivy

99.4

17

Big Sky

97.7

18

Colonial Athletic

97.6

19

Summit

97.0

20

Big West

96.3

21

Horizon

95.6

22

Patriot

95.3

23

Metro Atlantic

95.0

24

Western Athletic

94.9

25

America East

94.9

26

Ohio Valley

94.3

27

Atlantic Sun

94.0

28

Northeast

93.1

29

Southland

93.0

30

Big South

92.7

31

Southwestern Athletic

88.9

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.4

 

Captain’s Musings

Rating The Top Teams From One-Bid Conferences

 

As of today, our Bracketology (which will be updated later today) shows that 22 conferences will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament.  There is a chance that Northern Iowa and another chance that a second Southern Conference team could earn at-large bids if they do not win their conference tournaments, but for now, if the season ended today, and the top teams won their conference tournaments, 22 conferences would be one-bid leagues.

Every year some double-digit seeds win games in the second round (round of 64).  In most years, at least one double-digit seed makes the Sweet 16.  Of course, in a lot of these cases, the double-digit seed is a Power Conference school that finished in 4th to 6th place in its conference, but there are also years where a Loyola of Chicago or George Mason make a run after being vastly underrated.

Let’s take a look at the current best team in each of these one-bid conferences.  We are going to show you a spreadsheet of these 22 teams and place check marks by the positive criteria that we believe reveals which of these dark horse teams might be ready to ambush a favored Power Conference team in the second round and vie for a spot in the Sweet 16.

The criteria includes having an Offensive Efficiency Rating above 105, a Defensive Efficiency Rating of 95 or below, an offensive rebounding rate of 30 or above, a defensive rebounding rate of 75 or above, a turnover rate below 17, a defensive turnover rate above 17, having at least 3 seniors that play significant minutes, and having a schedule in which they played at least 5 teams in the top 125 of the NET Ratings.

After rating each of the 22 teams, we break them down into a group of 4 serious threats, 6 possible threats, 6 teams capable of playing good enough to win, and 6 teams that have no chance to win other than in a First Round Play-in Game in Dayton.

 

6 Teams With No Chance

Akron:  The Zips lack the rebounding strength and do not force turnovers to beat a quality team in the NCAAT.  Usually, a MAC Champion has a stronger schedule strength than this team.  With a low R+T Rating, Akron is likely to give up numerous extra scoring opportunities and lose in the Second Round.

Colgate: This Raiders team is one of the weakest potential Patriot League Champions when it comes to competing in the Big Dance.  Colgate has an efficient offense, but little else.  The Raiders will be overwhelmed by more physical opponents from Power Conferences, because they cannot compete on the boards and cannot create extra scoring opportunities with steals and forcing turnovers.  Unless the opponent gets the yips and totally throws up a ton of bricks, this could be a 20-point loss for Colgate.

Hofstra: It’s been 19 years since the Pride went to the Dance.  Joe Mihalich has done a superb job in Hempstead, just like he did at Niagara, but this Hofstra team will have to be satisfied with the Dance ticket if it arrives on Selection Sunday.  Hofstra lacks the criteria to do more than make a 40-minute appearance.   The Pride take care of the ball and are decent at forcing turnovers, but their half-court defense is lacking, and they are likely to be dominated on the glass.  They haven’t played enough Tournament-type teams to gain the confidence and experience to win on the big stage.

Montana: As of today, The Grizzlies would actually be considered the weakest overall team in the NCAAT.  Montana does not qualify in offensive or defensive efficiency, and the Grizzlies have the worst R+T Rating of this group.  They would most likely be a 16-seed but not playing in Dayton and thus would be fodder for a one-seed San Diego State or Kansas.

Prairie View: Of the 6 teams that make up this category, Prairie View has the best criteria and just narrowly misses out on moving up to the next group.  The Panthers narrowly lost a First Round game to Fairleigh-Dickinson last year, and PVAM would most likely return to Dayton this year if they win the SWAC Tournament.  Maybe, this year the Panthers will be favored to win that Play-in game and give a Baylor or Gonzaga a scare until the second TV Timeout.

Robert Morris: The Northeast Conference actually has a member that might be good enough to contend in an opening round game, but Merrimack won’t be eligible for the NCAAT for another few years, due to one of the dumbest rules the NCAA has.  Why would the NCAA punish a team moving up to Division I by making them ineligible for multiple years?  Merrimack is the class of the NEC this year and will probably receive an NIT bid, while Robert Morris, or any other league member, will be a prohibitive underdog in Dayton.  RMU is the only team of this 22-school comparison that comes up a zero in offensive and defensive efficiency plus offensive and defensive rebounding.  If the Colonials were to sneak into the Second Round after winning in Dayton, they would be likely looking at a loss of 30 or more points against a one-seed.

6 Teams Likely to Lose in Second Round But Talented Enough to Compete

Little Rock:  Four years ago, Chris Beard coached Little Rock to an upset over Purdue and then took advantage of his fortunes by taking the Texas Tech job.  Now, former Arkansas star Darrell Walker has the Trojans in line to contend as a double-digit seed this year.  Little Rock has an advantage that none of the teams in the bottom group has–they can create extra scoring opportunities with offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers.  They will still be heavy underdogs as a 13, 14, or 15-seed, but this team could contend for an upset if they matchup is favorable, and the opponent has issues with ball-handling and rebounding.

Norfolk St.: The MEAC Championship Game could be a rematch between Norfolk St. and UNC Central, won by UNC Central last year.  We believe that Norfolk St. has the better criteria for NCAAT purposes, and the Spartans are not a team to overlook.  Robert Jones is one of the best teaching coaches that doesn’t get the appreciation he deserves.  Norfolk’s liability is at the offensive end, where they are not the most efficient team in their own league.  But, they play aggressive attacking defense and can compete by forcing their opponent to become tentative and passive on offense.  If the three-pointers should fall for the Spartans (and they take lots of them), NSU could scare a 1 or 2-seed.  Norfolk State will probably be a 16-seed, but the Spartans are good enough to be a 15.

North Texas: The top 5 teams in CUSA are fairly balanced, so picking the Mean Green to be the representative solely comes from their having the CUSA Tournament in their backyard.  UNT qualifies on experience and schedule strength, which puts the Mean Green in a higher classification with the rest of their criteria.  They possess an above average offense and offensive rebounding ability, so this team will be capable of going on scoring runs.  The one issue is that they have played a half dozen very good teams and competed in every game, but they lost every one of these games.  They are probably looking at a single-digit loss in their opening game.

Siena: There are six MAAC teams that could be considered co-favorites to win the automatic bid, and we selected Siena solely on power ratings and remaining conference schedule.  It could just as easily be Monmouth, Rider, Saint Peter’s, Manhattan, or Quinnipiac.  All six of these MAAC teams are just talented enough to scare a 2 or 3-seed, but scare is probably all they can do.  Siena can rebound the ball and avoid making numerous turnovers, and they have a lot of senior leadership.  Siena’s half-court defense is suspect against a Power Conference opponent, so the Saints will most likely go marching back to Loudonville after one game.

South Dakota St.: T.J. Otzlerberger and Scott Nagy made the Jackrabbits the class of the Summit League and capitalized on their success by taking higher-paying jobs.  SDSU is still in capable hands with first year coach Eric Henderson, who has slighted changed the environment here with a bit more deliberate offense.  The Jackrabbits know how to work the ball in the half-court and score with consistency, taking care of the rock and getting a nice amount of offensive rebounds.  This type of team is always going to be dangerous in the early rounds, especially if the opponent isn’t used to playing defense for 25 seconds per possession.  The Jackrabbits are eventually going to win in the Big Dance, but probably not this year.  They may lose a close game.

Wright St.: Speaking of Nagy, this is where he left South Dakota State and chose to coach.  First, the Raiders must get past Northern Kentucky in the Horizon League Tournament, as the teams have traded championship game victories in recent years.  If WSU tops NKU this year, they will have the same offensive advantages that Nagy’s former school has, but they will also share the same liabilities.  

6 Teams Strong Enough To Win A Second Round Game 

Belmont: The Bruins beat Temple in the Big Dance last year, but this is a different team with a different head coach and different stars.  Belmont has become the Vermont of the Deep South, a school no Power Conference team wants to see in its second round bracket.  The Bruins can shoot the ball and can defend in the half-court.  They take care of the ball and pick up their share of steals.  Their problem is they lack the muscle inside this year, and they are missing some big leaders off last year’s team, including NBA Draft pick Dylan Windler.  Another sticking point with Belmont, they will have to fight off strong bids from Murray State, Austin Peay, and Eastern Kentucky just to get to the Dance.

UC-Irvine: Like Belmont, UCI won their second round game in last year’s NCAA Tournament, but like Belmont, the Anteaters are missing a key piece that led them to that victory in Max Hazzard.  The Anteaters are still built for NCAA Tournament success.  They are the best of the 22 teams listed here in passing the criteria for offensive and defensive efficiency combined with offensive and defensive rebounding.  Plus, they still have upperclass leadership and a decent R+T Rating.  Their biggest issue this year is a probably 15-seed instead of the 13-seed they were last year.

Northern Iowa: The Panthers look like the best Mid-Major team in the nation this year, but UNI has liabilities that keep them in the second group rather than the elite.  They have problems with defensive efficiency, offensive rebounding, and forcing turnovers.  Each one is a mild deficiency, but when you combine these three criteria with the added bonus that their schedule is a bit too weak, you see a slightly overrated team.  They are still talented enough to contend in the second round, and they will likely be given a 12 or 11 seed, which is where most double-digit seeds win, but this team is not built for lasting success in the Big Dance.

Winthrop:  Until this week, Winthrop looked like a decent long shot to surprise a team in the NCAAT.  Now, they must withstand a rematch with Radford just to get into the Field.  The Eagles are one of the few Mid-Major teams that could potentially pound the ball inside against a Power Conference school.  They have four big men that possess strength and quickness to get their share of offensive rebounds and excellent shooting opportunities in the paint.  Defensive lapses have hurt the Eagles, especially this past week, but their R+T Rating is in the very good range, and in a second round game, they could put a big scare in a 3-seed.

Vermont:  Only one criterion stands between the Catamounts being the top team of the 22 in this study and the top team in the second tier, which is where they are.  Vermont lacks the offensive rebounding power to get extra scoring opportunities.  If they were as good on the offensive glass as Winthrop, they might be a near sure thing to make it to the second week of the tournament.  Still, the Catamounts are good enough to win one game in this Tournament, but they will most likely face a third round opponent that can exploit their one Achilles’ Heel and send them back to the Green State.

Yale: Yale is barely the favorite to win the Ivy League Tournament and get the bid this year, and having the tournament at Harvard could be trouble if the Crimson can move up into the top 4.  If the Bulldogs win the automatic bid, they can be second round contenders.  The Bulldogs are a poor man’s Vermont this year.  They don’t have the same experience as Vermont, but they are still strong enough to keep a second round game close enough to steal a victory in the final minutes.

The Top 4 One-Bid Teams–All Strong Enough To Sneak Into The Sweet 16

East Tennessee St.:  The Bucs will face stiff competition in the most underrated league in college basketball.  The Southern Conference has four teams capable of winning NCAA Tournament games.  The league should be given a second team, but unless the conference champion loses a close game in the SoCon Championship, it isn’t going to happen.  In our opinion, the third best team in this league is better than the 8th best team in the Big Ten, but the Committee awards the big dogs at the expense of the little dogs.  ETSU has all the criteria of a school like Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Butler, and Wichita State in the years these schools first became big time players in the Big Dance.  The Bucs could even win a second round game by double digits.  If their schedule was just a tad stronger, they would be favored over most potential third round opponents.  They should get an 11-seed if they continue to win.  They won at LSU by double digits this year.

Liberty: The Flames pulled a shocking second round upset last year and have a considerably stronger team this year.  Of course, they will not be overlooked this year.  Liberty is quite strong in all but the very important offensive rebounding criterion.  That is what will be the Flames’ downfall, but in the second round, their opponent will likely not have the strength to capitalize on their weakness.

New Mexico St.: It’s no surprise that the Aggies are expected to get to the Dance and compete brilliantly this year, since that is what they have done in seven of the past eight seasons.  Chris Jans rates as our top Mid-Major coach this year, and we expect he will have numerous Power Conference job offers at the end of the season.  NMSU has all the criteria needed to make a surprise deep run in this year’s tournament.  This is a team that lost by one point to Final Four Auburn in last year’s Big Dance, and the Aggies will be ready to seek revenge after watching multiple 50-50 judgment calls go against them last year.  NMSU qualifies on all the essential criteria–passing the mark in offensive and defensive efficiency, offensive rebounding, and forcing turnovers.  Their limited liabilities come in offensive turnovers and strength of schedule.  With a very strong R+T Rating, this team is talented enough to chalk up a second round win and then contend for a Sweet 16 bid.

Stephen F. Austin: Here is one criterion that we have not mentioned before, but when we say it, you will know right away that SF Austin is good enough to make it past the first weekend in this tournament:  They beat Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium in a game where the officials gave the Blue Devils as much preferential treatment as the 1972 Olympic referees gave the USSR team.  The Lumberjacks are currently the best Mid-Major team when applying the PiRate Rating Big Dance criteria.  They have an excellent offensive and very good defensive efficiency.  They have a large offensive rebounding advantage over most of the other teams that could be in this field.  They have considerable junior and senior leadership, and they have confidence.  If you can win at Duke when the calls go in the Blue Devils’ favor, you can beat anybody in this field.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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