The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 10, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 10, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:22 am

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PiRate Ratings For January 10, 2020

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conference

1

Duke

122.6

Atlantic Coast

2

Kansas

121.8

Big 12

3

Michigan St.

120.3

Big Ten

4

Gonzaga

117.6

West Coast

5

Ohio St.

117.5

Big Ten

6

Arizona

117.0

Pac-12

7

Maryland

116.8

Big Ten

8

Louisville

116.1

Atlantic Coast

9

Dayton

116.0

Atlantic 10

10

Baylor

115.7

Big 12

11

Butler

115.4

Big East

12

Florida St.

115.1

Atlantic Coast

13

Seton Hall

115.0

Big East

14

West Virginia

114.9

Big 12

15

Auburn

114.8

Southeastern

16

Kentucky

114.7

Southeastern

17

Oregon

114.6

Pac-12

18

Michigan

113.9

Big Ten

19

San Diego St.

113.6

Mountain West

20

Penn St.

112.9

Big Ten

21

Florida

112.9

Southeastern

22

LSU

112.9

Southeastern

23

Villanova

112.8

Big East

24

Memphis

112.7

American Athletic

25

BYU

112.7

West Coast

26

Iowa

112.6

Big Ten

27

Texas Tech

112.6

Big 12

28

Illinois

112.3

Big Ten

29

Houston

112.3

American Athletic

30

Purdue

112.3

Big Ten

31

Marquette

112.2

Big East

32

Wichita St.

112.2

Big East

33

Arkansas

112.1

Southeastern

34

Wisconsin

112.0

Big Ten

35

Rutgers

111.8

Big Ten

36

Colorado

111.6

Pac-12

37

Saint Mary’s

111.4

West Coast

38

VCU

111.2

Atlantic 10

39

Minnesota

111.2

Big Ten

40

Indiana

111.0

Big Ten

41

Xavier

110.9

Big East

42

Washington

110.8

Pac-12

43

Creighton

110.8

Big East

44

North Carolina St.

110.7

Atlantic Coast

45

Georgetown

110.6

Big East

46

Alabama

110.6

Southeastern

47

Oklahoma

110.5

Big 12

48

Virginia

110.2

Atlantic Coast

49

Tennessee

110.0

Southeastern

50

Cincinnati

109.7

American Athletic

51

Stanford

109.6

Pac-12

52

TCU

109.2

Big 12

53

Missouri

109.0

Southeastern

54

Iowa St.

108.9

Big 12

55

Oklahoma St.

108.9

Big 12

56

Utah St.

108.9

Mountain West

57

Notre Dame

108.8

Atlantic Coast

58

East Tennessee St.

108.6

Southern

59

North Carolina

108.6

Atlantic Coast

60

Georgia

108.3

Southeastern

61

Mississippi St.

108.3

Southeastern

62

Richmond

108.3

Atlantic 10

63

Providence

108.2

Big East

64

Yale

108.2

Ivy

65

Virginia Tech

108.0

Atlantic Coast

66

Furman

107.9

Southern

67

Liberty

107.9

Atlantic Sun

68

Temple

107.8

American Athletic

69

Oregon St.

107.7

Pac-12

70

Duquesne

107.6

Atlantic 10

71

Louisiana Tech

107.5

Conference USA

72

St. John’s

107.4

Big East

73

Belmont

107.4

Ohio Valley

74

Syracuse

107.4

Atlantic Coast

75

Pittsburgh

107.3

Atlantic Coast

76

Texas

107.3

Big 12

77

DePaul

107.3

Big East

78

Arizona St.

107.2

Pac-12

79

Rhode Island

107.2

Atlantic 10

80

SMU

107.2

American Athletic

81

USC

107.1

Pac-12

82

Connecticut

106.9

American Athletic

83

Georgia Tech

106.7

Atlantic Coast

84

Northern Iowa

106.5

Missouri Valley

85

Vermont

106.4

American East

86

Akron

106.3

Mid-American

87

Davidson

106.3

Atlantic 10

88

UNC Greensboro

106.2

Southern

89

Clemson

106.2

Atlantic Coast

90

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

Atlantic Coast

91

Kansas St.

105.8

Big 12

92

New Mexico St.

105.8

Western Athletic

93

New Mexico

105.6

Mountain West

94

Utah

105.6

Pac-12

95

Nevada

105.4

Mountain West

96

Harvard

105.3

Ivy

97

Kent St.

105.2

Mid-American

98

Wake Forest

105.2

Atlantic Coast

99

Mississippi

105.1

Southeastern

100

San Francisco

104.9

West Coast

101

Georgia St.

104.7

Sun Belt

102

Ball St.

104.6

Mid-American

103

Boise St.

104.6

Mountain West

104

Toledo

104.5

Mid-American

105

Bradley

104.5

Missouri Valley

106

Northwestern

104.3

Big Ten

107

Wright St.

104.2

Horizon

108

Western Kentucky

104.2

Conference USA

109

Saint Louis

104.1

Atlantic 10

110

UCLA

104.0

Pac-12

111

Central Florida

104.0

American Athletic

112

South Carolina

103.9

Southeastern

113

Loyola (Chi.)

103.7

Missouri Valley

114

North Texas

103.3

Conference USA

115

Vanderbilt

103.2

Southeastern

116

Tulsa

103.1

American Athletic

117

South Florida

103.1

American Athletic

118

UC Irvine

103.0

Big West

119

Charleston

102.9

Colonial Athletic

120

St. Bonaventure

102.8

Atlantic 10

121

Wofford

102.7

Southern

122

Nebraska

102.6

Big Ten

123

Stony Brook

102.5

American East

124

Indiana St.

102.5

Missouri Valley

125

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

126

Stephen F. Austin

102.4

Southland

127

Northern Colorado

102.4

Big Sky

128

Fresno St.

102.3

Mountain West

129

Penn

102.3

Ivy

130

UT Arlington

102.2

Southland

131

Boston College

102.2

Atlantic Coast

132

Colgate

102.2

Patriot

133

Washington St.

102.1

Pac-12

134

Radford

102.0

Big South

135

Winthrop

101.9

Big South

136

Missouri St.

101.8

Missouri Valley

137

Hofstra

101.8

Colonial Athletic

138

Northeastern

101.7

Colonial Athletic

139

Colorado St.

101.7

Mountain West

140

UTEP

101.6

Conference USA

141

UNLV

101.6

Mountain West

142

Texas St.

101.5

Sun Belt

143

Marshall

101.5

Conference USA

144

UC Santa Barbara

101.4

Big West

145

South Dakota St.

101.3

Summit

146

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

147

Santa Clara

101.2

West Coast

148

North Dakota St.

101.2

Summit

149

Northern Kentucky

101.0

Horizon

150

Oral Roberts

101.0

Summit

151

William & Mary

100.9

Colonial Athletic

152

Texas A&M

100.9

Southeastern

153

Buffalo

100.9

Mid-American

154

Georgia Southern

100.8

Sun Belt

155

Southern Utah

100.8

Big Sky

156

Western Carolina

100.8

Southern

157

Coastal Carolina

100.8

Sun Belt

158

George Mason

100.7

Atlantic 10

159

Pacific

100.5

West Coast

160

Hawaii

100.3

Big West

161

Pepperdine

100.2

West Coast

162

UAB

100.2

Conference USA

163

Little Rock

100.2

Sun Belt

164

La Salle

100.1

Atlantic 10

165

Tulane

100.1

American Athletic

166

North Florida

100.1

Atlantic Sun

167

Air Force

99.9

Mountain West

168

Bowling Green

99.9

Mid-American

169

Appalachian St.

99.9

Sun Belt

170

Northern Illinois

99.9

Mid-American

171

Charlotte

99.9

Conference USA

172

Sam Houston St.

99.8

Southland

173

St. Francis (PA)

99.7

Northeast

174

Valparaiso

99.5

Missouri Valley

175

Massachusetts

99.5

Atlantic 10

176

Montana

99.5

Big Sky

177

California Baptist

99.4

Western Athletic

178

California

99.4

Pac-12

179

Old Dominion

99.3

Conference USA

180

Towson

99.3

Colonial Athletic

181

Florida Int’l.

99.3

Conference USA

182

Eastern Washington

99.3

Big Sky

183

Rider

99.2

Metro Atlantic

184

Delaware

99.2

Colonial Athletic

185

Florida Atlantic

99.1

Conference USA

186

South Alabama

99.1

Sun Belt

187

Southern Illinois

99.1

Missouri Valley

188

Central Michigan

99.0

Mid-American

189

Omaha

98.7

Summit

190

Austin Peay

98.5

Ohio Valley

191

Sacramento St.

98.5

Big Sky

192

Nicholls St.

98.4

Southland

193

UTSA

98.3

Conference USA

194

Princeton

98.1

Ivy

195

Chattanooga

98.0

Southern

196

Siena

97.9

Metro Atlantic

197

Sacred Heart

97.9

Northeast

198

Lafayette

97.7

Patriot

199

Ohio

97.7

Mid-American

200

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

201

Miami (O)

97.6

Mid-American

202

San Diego

97.5

West Coast

203

Portland St.

97.4

Big Sky

204

Illinois St.

97.3

Missouri Valley

205

Boston U

97.2

Patriot

206

Loyola Marymount

97.2

West Coast

207

Dartmouth

97.2

Ivy

208

Bryant

97.2

Northeast

209

Brown

97.1

Ivy

210

South Dakota

97.1

Summit

211

North Dakota

97.1

Summit

212

UC Riverside

97.0

Big West

213

Oakland

96.9

Horizon

214

American

96.8

Patriot

215

Monmouth

96.7

Metro Atlantic

216

Eastern Illinois

96.7

Ohio Valley

217

Evansville

96.6

Missouri Valley

218

Eastern Michigan

96.5

Mid-American

219

Albany

96.5

American East

220

Samford

96.5

Southern

221

Montana St.

96.5

Big Sky

222

Youngstown St.

96.5

Horizon

223

Abilene Christian

96.4

Southland

224

Navy

96.3

Patriot

225

Rice

96.3

Conference USA

226

Quinnipiac

96.1

Metro Atlantic

227

Lipscomb

96.1

Atlantic Sun

228

Northern Arizona

96.1

Big Sky

229

Prairie View A&M

96.1

Southwestern Athl.

230

Grand Canyon

96.0

Western Athletic

231

Campbell

96.0

Big South

232

Missouri-KC

95.9

Western Athletic

233

Jacksonville St.

95.9

Ohio Valley

234

East Carolina

95.8

American Athletic

235

Bucknell

95.8

Patriot

236

Seattle

95.7

Western Athletic

237

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.7

Summit

238

Canisius

95.6

Metro Atlantic

239

Jacksonville

95.6

Atlantic Sun

240

Loyola (MD)

95.6

Patriot

241

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.6

Western Athletic

242

George Washington

95.5

Atlantic 10

243

Columbia

95.4

Ivy

244

UC Davis

95.4

Big West

245

Arkansas St.

95.3

Sun Belt

246

Robert Morris

95.2

Northeast

247

Louisiana

95.2

Sun Belt

248

Iona

95.2

Metro Atlantic

249

Tennessee St.

95.2

Ohio Valley

250

Louisiana Monroe

95.1

Sun Belt

251

Gardner-Webb

95.1

Big South

252

Portland

95.1

West Coast

253

Drexel

95.1

Colonial Athletic

254

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.0

Western Athletic

255

Milwaukee

94.9

Horizon

256

Manhattan

94.9

Metro Atlantic

257

Fairfield

94.9

Metro Atlantic

258

Utah Valley

94.8

Western Athletic

259

Illinois Chicago

94.8

Horizon

260

UNC Asheville

94.7

Big South

261

Western Michigan

94.7

Mid-American

262

Long Island

94.6

Northeast

263

Saint Peter’s

94.5

Metro Atlantic

264

Fordham

94.5

Atlantic 10

265

UMass Lowell

94.4

American East

266

Lehigh

94.4

Patriot

267

Troy

94.4

Sun Belt

268

Cal St. Northridge

94.3

Big West

269

Saint Joseph’s

94.3

Atlantic 10

270

Mercer

94.2

Southern

271

James Madison

94.2

Colonial Athletic

272

Cal St. Fullerton

94.0

Big West

273

Lamar

93.9

Southland

274

McNeese St.

93.8

Southland

275

Morehead St.

93.8

Ohio Valley

276

Norfolk St.

93.8

Mideastern Athletic

277

Southern Miss.

93.7

Conference USA

278

Weber St.

93.6

Big Sky

279

Bethune Cookman

93.5

Mideastern Athletic

280

New Hampshire

93.5

American East

281

Texas Southern

93.4

Southwestern Athl.

282

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Conference USA

283

Merrimack

92.9

Northeast

284

Cornell

92.8

Ivy

285

North Alabama

92.8

Atlantic Sun

286

Mount St. Mary’s

92.7

Northeast

287

Detroit

92.6

Horizon

288

VMI

92.5

Southern

289

UM Baltimore Co.

92.4

American East

290

Citadel

92.4

Southern

291

Texas A&M CC

92.3

Southland

292

Grambling

92.3

Southwestern Athl.

293

Hartford

92.2

American East

294

Wyoming

92.1

Mountain West

295

San Jose St.

92.0

Mountain West

296

NJIT

91.9

Atlantic Sun

297

Army

91.8

Patriot

298

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.6

Northeast

299

Morgan St.

91.6

Mideastern Athletic

300

New Orleans

91.5

Southland

301

Idaho St.

91.4

Big Sky

302

UT-Martin

91.4

Ohio Valley

303

IUPUI

91.4

Horizon

304

Wagner

91.2

Northeast

305

Cleveland St.

91.1

Horizon

306

Niagara

91.1

Metro Atlantic

307

North Carolina Central

90.9

Mideastern Athletic

308

UNC Wilmington

90.8

Colonial Athletic

309

Long Beach St.

90.8

Big West

310

Elon

90.5

Colonial Athletic

311

Longwood

90.4

Big South

312

Stetson

90.2

Atlantic Sun

313

Idaho

90.2

Big Sky

314

Florida Gulf Coast

90.1

Atlantic Sun

315

Alcorn St.

90.0

Southwestern Athl.

316

SE Missouri

90.0

Ohio Valley

317

St. Francis (NY)

89.9

Northeast

318

Florida A&M

89.8

Mideastern Athletic

319

Binghamton

89.8

American East

320

Hampton

89.7

Big South

321

USC Upstate

89.7

Big South

322

Charleston Southern

89.6

Big South

323

Eastern Kentucky

89.6

Ohio Valley

324

North Carolina A&T

89.5

Mideastern Athletic

325

Western Illinois

89.4

Summit

326

Southern

89.4

Southwestern Athl.

327

Central Arkansas

89.3

Southland

328

Denver

89.3

Summit

329

SE Louisiana

89.2

Southland

330

Cal Poly

88.9

Big West

331

Jackson St.

88.7

Southwestern Athl.

332

Coppin St.

88.6

Mideastern Athletic

333

South Carolina St.

88.3

Mideastern Athletic

334

Northwestern St.

88.3

Southland

335

Holy Cross

88.2

Patriot

336

Alabama A&M

87.8

Southwestern Athl.

337

Marist

87.7

Metro Atlantic

338

Tennessee Tech

87.6

Ohio Valley

339

SIU Edwardsville

87.6

Ohio Valley

340

Presbyterian

87.5

Big South

341

Alabama St.

87.1

Southwestern Athl.

342

Maine

86.8

American East

343

Houston Baptist

86.5

Southland

344

High Point

86.0

Big South

345

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

Southwestern Athl.

346

Kennesaw St.

84.7

Atlantic Sun

347

Incarnate Word

83.2

Southland

348

Howard

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

349

MD Eastern Shore

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

350

Central Connecticut

81.3

Northeast

351

Delaware St.

80.7

Mideastern Athletic

352

Chicago St.

77.8

Western Athletic

353

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Southwestern Athl.

 

Alphabetical

 

Team

PiRate

Conf.

Abilene Christian

96.4

Southland

Air Force

99.9

Mountain West

Akron

106.3

Mid-American

Alabama

110.6

Southeastern

Alabama A&M

87.8

Southwestern Athl.

Alabama St.

87.1

Southwestern Athl.

Albany

96.5

American East

Alcorn St.

90.0

Southwestern Athl.

American

96.8

Patriot

Appalachian St.

99.9

Sun Belt

Arizona

117.0

Pac-12

Arizona St.

107.2

Pac-12

Arkansas

112.1

Southeastern

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

Southwestern Athl.

Arkansas St.

95.3

Sun Belt

Army

91.8

Patriot

Auburn

114.8

Southeastern

Austin Peay

98.5

Ohio Valley

Ball St.

104.6

Mid-American

Baylor

115.7

Big 12

Belmont

107.4

Ohio Valley

Bethune Cookman

93.5

Mideastern Athletic

Binghamton

89.8

American East

Boise St.

104.6

Mountain West

Boston College

102.2

Atlantic Coast

Boston U

97.2

Patriot

Bowling Green

99.9

Mid-American

Bradley

104.5

Missouri Valley

Brown

97.1

Ivy

Bryant

97.2

Northeast

Bucknell

95.8

Patriot

Buffalo

100.9

Mid-American

Butler

115.4

Big East

BYU

112.7

West Coast

Cal Poly

88.9

Big West

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.6

Western Athletic

Cal St. Fullerton

94.0

Big West

Cal St. Northridge

94.3

Big West

California

99.4

Pac-12

California Baptist

99.4

Western Athletic

Campbell

96.0

Big South

Canisius

95.6

Metro Atlantic

Central Arkansas

89.3

Southland

Central Connecticut

81.3

Northeast

Central Florida

104.0

American Athletic

Central Michigan

99.0

Mid-American

Charleston

102.9

Colonial Athletic

Charleston Southern

89.6

Big South

Charlotte

99.9

Conference USA

Chattanooga

98.0

Southern

Chicago St.

77.8

Western Athletic

Cincinnati

109.7

American Athletic

Citadel

92.4

Southern

Clemson

106.2

Atlantic Coast

Cleveland St.

91.1

Horizon

Coastal Carolina

100.8

Sun Belt

Colgate

102.2

Patriot

Colorado

111.6

Pac-12

Colorado St.

101.7

Mountain West

Columbia

95.4

Ivy

Connecticut

106.9

American Athletic

Coppin St.

88.6

Mideastern Athletic

Cornell

92.8

Ivy

Creighton

110.8

Big East

Dartmouth

97.2

Ivy

Davidson

106.3

Atlantic 10

Dayton

116.0

Atlantic 10

Delaware

99.2

Colonial Athletic

Delaware St.

80.7

Mideastern Athletic

Denver

89.3

Summit

DePaul

107.3

Big East

Detroit

92.6

Horizon

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

Drexel

95.1

Colonial Athletic

Duke

122.6

Atlantic Coast

Duquesne

107.6

Atlantic 10

East Carolina

95.8

American Athletic

East Tennessee St.

108.6

Southern

Eastern Illinois

96.7

Ohio Valley

Eastern Kentucky

89.6

Ohio Valley

Eastern Michigan

96.5

Mid-American

Eastern Washington

99.3

Big Sky

Elon

90.5

Colonial Athletic

Evansville

96.6

Missouri Valley

Fairfield

94.9

Metro Atlantic

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.6

Northeast

Florida

112.9

Southeastern

Florida A&M

89.8

Mideastern Athletic

Florida Atlantic

99.1

Conference USA

Florida Gulf Coast

90.1

Atlantic Sun

Florida Int’l.

99.3

Conference USA

Florida St.

115.1

Atlantic Coast

Fordham

94.5

Atlantic 10

Fresno St.

102.3

Mountain West

Furman

107.9

Southern

Gardner-Webb

95.1

Big South

George Mason

100.7

Atlantic 10

George Washington

95.5

Atlantic 10

Georgetown

110.6

Big East

Georgia

108.3

Southeastern

Georgia Southern

100.8

Sun Belt

Georgia St.

104.7

Sun Belt

Georgia Tech

106.7

Atlantic Coast

Gonzaga

117.6

West Coast

Grambling

92.3

Southwestern Athl.

Grand Canyon

96.0

Western Athletic

Green Bay

97.7

Horizon

Hampton

89.7

Big South

Hartford

92.2

American East

Harvard

105.3

Ivy

Hawaii

100.3

Big West

High Point

86.0

Big South

Hofstra

101.8

Colonial Athletic

Holy Cross

88.2

Patriot

Houston

112.3

American Athletic

Houston Baptist

86.5

Southland

Howard

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

Idaho

90.2

Big Sky

Idaho St.

91.4

Big Sky

Illinois

112.3

Big Ten

Illinois Chicago

94.8

Horizon

Illinois St.

97.3

Missouri Valley

Incarnate Word

83.2

Southland

Indiana

111.0

Big Ten

Indiana St.

102.5

Missouri Valley

Iona

95.2

Metro Atlantic

Iowa

112.6

Big Ten

Iowa St.

108.9

Big 12

IUPUI

91.4

Horizon

Jackson St.

88.7

Southwestern Athl.

Jacksonville

95.6

Atlantic Sun

Jacksonville St.

95.9

Ohio Valley

James Madison

94.2

Colonial Athletic

Kansas

121.8

Big 12

Kansas St.

105.8

Big 12

Kennesaw St.

84.7

Atlantic Sun

Kent St.

105.2

Mid-American

Kentucky

114.7

Southeastern

La Salle

100.1

Atlantic 10

Lafayette

97.7

Patriot

Lamar

93.9

Southland

Lehigh

94.4

Patriot

Liberty

107.9

Atlantic Sun

Lipscomb

96.1

Atlantic Sun

Little Rock

100.2

Sun Belt

Long Beach St.

90.8

Big West

Long Island

94.6

Northeast

Longwood

90.4

Big South

Louisiana

95.2

Sun Belt

Louisiana Monroe

95.1

Sun Belt

Louisiana Tech

107.5

Conference USA

Louisville

116.1

Atlantic Coast

Loyola (Chi.)

103.7

Missouri Valley

Loyola Marymount

97.2

West Coast

Loyola (MD)

95.6

Patriot

LSU

112.9

Southeastern

Maine

86.8

American East

Manhattan

94.9

Metro Atlantic

Marist

87.7

Metro Atlantic

Marquette

112.2

Big East

Marshall

101.5

Conference USA

Maryland

116.8

Big Ten

Massachusetts

99.5

Atlantic 10

McNeese St.

93.8

Southland

MD Eastern Shore

81.8

Mideastern Athletic

Memphis

112.7

American Athletic

Mercer

94.2

Southern

Merrimack

92.9

Northeast

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

Atlantic Coast

Miami (O)

97.6

Mid-American

Michigan

113.9

Big Ten

Michigan St.

120.3

Big Ten

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Conference USA

Milwaukee

94.9

Horizon

Minnesota

111.2

Big Ten

Mississippi

105.1

Southeastern

Mississippi St.

108.3

Southeastern

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Southwestern Athl.

Missouri

109.0

Southeastern

Missouri-KC

95.9

Western Athletic

Missouri St.

101.8

Missouri Valley

Monmouth

96.7

Metro Atlantic

Montana

99.5

Big Sky

Montana St.

96.5

Big Sky

Morehead St.

93.8

Ohio Valley

Morgan St.

91.6

Mideastern Athletic

Mount St. Mary’s

92.7

Northeast

Murray St.

102.5

Ohio Valley

Navy

96.3

Patriot

Nebraska

102.6

Big Ten

Nevada

105.4

Mountain West

New Hampshire

93.5

American East

New Mexico

105.6

Mountain West

New Mexico St.

105.8

Western Athletic

New Orleans

91.5

Southland

Niagara

91.1

Metro Atlantic

Nicholls St.

98.4

Southland

NJIT

91.9

Atlantic Sun

Norfolk St.

93.8

Mideastern Athletic

North Alabama

92.8

Atlantic Sun

North Carolina

108.6

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina A&T

89.5

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina Central

90.9

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina St.

110.7

Atlantic Coast

North Dakota

97.1

Summit

North Dakota St.

101.2

Summit

North Florida

100.1

Atlantic Sun

North Texas

103.3

Conference USA

Northeastern

101.7

Colonial Athletic

Northern Arizona

96.1

Big Sky

Northern Colorado

102.4

Big Sky

Northern Illinois

99.9

Mid-American

Northern Iowa

106.5

Missouri Valley

Northern Kentucky

101.0

Horizon

Northwestern

104.3

Big Ten

Northwestern St.

88.3

Southland

Notre Dame

108.8

Atlantic Coast

Oakland

96.9

Horizon

Ohio

97.7

Mid-American

Ohio St.

117.5

Big Ten

Oklahoma

110.5

Big 12

Oklahoma St.

108.9

Big 12

Old Dominion

99.3

Conference USA

Omaha

98.7

Summit

Oral Roberts

101.0

Summit

Oregon

114.6

Pac-12

Oregon St.

107.7

Pac-12

Pacific

100.5

West Coast

Penn

102.3

Ivy

Penn St.

112.9

Big Ten

Pepperdine

100.2

West Coast

Pittsburgh

107.3

Atlantic Coast

Portland

95.1

West Coast

Portland St.

97.4

Big Sky

Prairie View A&M

96.1

Southwestern Athl.

Presbyterian

87.5

Big South

Princeton

98.1

Ivy

Providence

108.2

Big East

Purdue

112.3

Big Ten

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.7

Summit

Quinnipiac

96.1

Metro Atlantic

Radford

102.0

Big South

Rhode Island

107.2

Atlantic 10

Rice

96.3

Conference USA

Richmond

108.3

Atlantic 10

Rider

99.2

Metro Atlantic

Robert Morris

95.2

Northeast

Rutgers

111.8

Big Ten

Sacramento St.

98.5

Big Sky

Sacred Heart

97.9

Northeast

Saint Joseph’s

94.3

Atlantic 10

Saint Louis

104.1

Atlantic 10

Saint Mary’s

111.4

West Coast

Saint Peter’s

94.5

Metro Atlantic

Sam Houston St.

99.8

Southland

Samford

96.5

Southern

San Diego

97.5

West Coast

San Diego St.

113.6

Mountain West

San Francisco

104.9

West Coast

San Jose St.

92.0

Mountain West

Santa Clara

101.2

West Coast

SE Louisiana

89.2

Southland

SE Missouri

90.0

Ohio Valley

Seattle

95.7

Western Athletic

Seton Hall

115.0

Big East

Siena

97.9

Metro Atlantic

SIU Edwardsville

87.6

Ohio Valley

SMU

107.2

American Athletic

South Alabama

99.1

Sun Belt

South Carolina

103.9

Southeastern

South Carolina St.

88.3

Mideastern Athletic

South Dakota

97.1

Summit

South Dakota St.

101.3

Summit

South Florida

103.1

American Athletic

Southern

89.4

Southwestern Athl.

Southern Illinois

99.1

Missouri Valley

Southern Miss.

93.7

Conference USA

Southern Utah

100.8

Big Sky

St. Bonaventure

102.8

Atlantic 10

St. Francis (NY)

89.9

Northeast

St. Francis (PA)

99.7

Northeast

St. John’s

107.4

Big East

Stanford

109.6

Pac-12

Stephen F. Austin

102.4

Southland

Stetson

90.2

Atlantic Sun

Stony Brook

102.5

American East

Syracuse

107.4

Atlantic Coast

TCU

109.2

Big 12

Temple

107.8

American Athletic

Tennessee

110.0

Southeastern

Tennessee St.

95.2

Ohio Valley

Tennessee Tech

87.6

Ohio Valley

Texas

107.3

Big 12

Texas A&M

100.9

Southeastern

Texas A&M CC

92.3

Southland

Texas Southern

93.4

Southwestern Athl.

Texas St.

101.5

Sun Belt

Texas Tech

112.6

Big 12

Toledo

104.5

Mid-American

Towson

99.3

Colonial Athletic

Troy

94.4

Sun Belt

Tulane

100.1

American Athletic

Tulsa

103.1

American Athletic

UAB

100.2

Conference USA

UC Davis

95.4

Big West

UC Irvine

103.0

Big West

UC Riverside

97.0

Big West

UC Santa Barbara

101.4

Big West

UCLA

104.0

Pac-12

UM Baltimore Co.

92.4

American East

UMass Lowell

94.4

American East

UNC Asheville

94.7

Big South

UNC Greensboro

106.2

Southern

UNC Wilmington

90.8

Colonial Athletic

UNLV

101.6

Mountain West

USC

107.1

Pac-12

USC Upstate

89.7

Big South

UT Arlington

102.2

Southland

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.0

Western Athletic

UT-Martin

91.4

Ohio Valley

Utah

105.6

Pac-12

Utah St.

108.9

Mountain West

Utah Valley

94.8

Western Athletic

UTEP

101.6

Conference USA

UTSA

98.3

Conference USA

Valparaiso

99.5

Missouri Valley

Vanderbilt

103.2

Southeastern

VCU

111.2

Atlantic 10

Vermont

106.4

American East

Villanova

112.8

Big East

Virginia

110.2

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

108.0

Atlantic Coast

VMI

92.5

Southern

Wagner

91.2

Northeast

Wake Forest

105.2

Atlantic Coast

Washington

110.8

Pac-12

Washington St.

102.1

Pac-12

Weber St.

93.6

Big Sky

West Virginia

114.9

Big 12

Western Carolina

100.8

Southern

Western Illinois

89.4

Summit

Western Kentucky

104.2

Conference USA

Western Michigan

94.7

Mid-American

Wichita St.

112.2

Big East

William & Mary

100.9

Colonial Athletic

Winthrop

101.9

Big South

Wisconsin

112.0

Big Ten

Wofford

102.7

Southern

Wright St.

104.2

Horizon

Wyoming

92.1

Mountain West

Xavier

110.9

Big East

Yale

108.2

Ivy

Youngstown St.

96.5

Horizon

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

#

American Athletic

PiRate

1

Memphis

112.7

2

Houston

112.3

3

Cincinnati

109.7

4

Temple

107.8

5

SMU

107.2

6

Connecticut

106.9

7

Central Florida

104.0

8

Tulsa

103.1

9

South Florida

103.1

10

Tulane

100.1

11

East Carolina

95.8

Avg

American Athletic

105.7

 

 

#

American East

PiRate

1

Vermont

106.4

2

Stony Brook

102.5

3

Albany

96.5

4

UMass Lowell

94.4

5

New Hampshire

93.5

6

UM Baltimore Co.

92.4

7

Hartford

92.2

8

Binghamton

89.8

9

Maine

86.8

Avg

American East

94.9

 

 

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

1

Dayton

116.0

2

VCU

111.2

3

Richmond

108.3

4

Duquesne

107.6

5

Rhode Island

107.2

6

Davidson

106.3

7

Saint Louis

104.1

8

St. Bonaventure

102.8

9

George Mason

100.7

10

La Salle

100.1

11

Massachusetts

99.5

12

George Washington

95.5

13

Fordham

94.5

14

Saint Joseph’s

94.3

Avg.

Atlantic 10

103.4

 

 

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

122.6

2

Louisville

116.1

3

Florida St.

115.1

4

North Carolina St.

110.7

5

Virginia

110.2

6

Notre Dame

108.8

7

North Carolina

108.6

8

Virginia Tech

108.0

9

Syracuse

107.4

10

Pittsburgh

107.3

11

Georgia Tech

106.7

12

Clemson

106.2

13

Miami (Fla.)

105.9

14

Wake Forest

105.2

15

Boston College

102.2

Avg

Atlantic Coast

109.4

 

 

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

1

Liberty

107.9

2

North Florida

100.1

3

Lipscomb

96.1

4

Jacksonville

95.6

5

North Alabama

92.8

6

NJIT

91.9

7

Stetson

90.2

8

Florida Gulf Coast

90.1

9

Kennesaw St.

84.7

Avg

Atlantic Sun

94.4

 

 

#

Big 12

PiRate

1

Kansas

121.8

2

Baylor

115.7

3

West Virginia

114.9

4

Texas Tech

112.6

5

Oklahoma

110.5

6

TCU

109.2

7

Iowa St.

108.9

8

Oklahoma St.

108.9

9

Texas

107.3

10

Kansas St.

105.8

Avg

Big 12

111.6

 

 

#

Big East

PiRate

1

Butler

115.4

2

Seton Hall

115.0

3

Villanova

112.8

4

Marquette

112.2

5

Wichita St.

112.2

6

Xavier

110.9

7

Creighton

110.8

8

Georgetown

110.6

9

Providence

108.2

10

St. John’s

107.4

11

DePaul

107.3

Avg

Big East

111.2

 

 

#

Big Sky

PiRate

1

Northern Colorado

102.4

2

Southern Utah

100.8

3

Montana

99.5

4

Eastern Washington

99.3

5

Sacramento St.

98.5

6

Portland St.

97.4

7

Montana St.

96.5

8

Northern Arizona

96.1

9

Weber St.

93.6

10

Idaho St.

91.4

11

Idaho

90.2

#

Big Sky

96.9

 

 

#

Big South

PiRate

1

Radford

102.0

2

Winthrop

101.9

3

Campbell

96.0

4

Gardner-Webb

95.1

5

UNC Asheville

94.7

6

Longwood

90.4

7

Hampton

89.7

8

USC Upstate

89.7

9

Charleston Southern

89.6

10

Presbyterian

87.5

11

High Point

86.0

Avg

Big South

93.0

 

 

#

Big Ten

PiRate

1

Michigan St.

120.3

2

Ohio St.

117.5

3

Maryland

116.8

4

Michigan

113.9

5

Penn St.

112.9

6

Iowa

112.6

7

Illinois

112.3

8

Purdue

112.3

9

Wisconsin

112.0

10

Rutgers

111.8

11

Minnesota

111.2

12

Indiana

111.0

13

Northwestern

104.3

14

Nebraska

102.6

Avg

Big Ten

112.3

 

 

#

Big West

PiRate

1

UC Irvine

103.0

2

UC Santa Barbara

101.4

3

Hawaii

100.3

4

UC Riverside

97.0

5

UC Davis

95.4

6

Cal St. Northridge

94.3

7

Cal St. Fullerton

94.0

8

Long Beach St.

90.8

9

Cal Poly

88.9

Avg

Big West

96.1

 

 

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

1

Charleston

102.9

2

Hofstra

101.8

3

Northeastern

101.7

4

William & Mary

100.9

5

Towson

99.3

6

Delaware

99.2

7

Drexel

95.1

8

James Madison

94.2

9

UNC Wilmington

90.8

10

Elon

90.5

Avg

Colonial Athletic

97.6

 

 

#

Conference USA

PiRate

1

Louisiana Tech

107.5

2

Western Kentucky

104.2

3

North Texas

103.3

4

UTEP

101.6

5

Marshall

101.5

6

UAB

100.2

7

Charlotte

99.9

8

Old Dominion

99.3

9

Florida Int’l.

99.3

10

Florida Atlantic

99.1

11

UTSA

98.3

12

Rice

96.3

13

Southern Miss.

93.7

14

Middle Tennessee

93.3

Avg

Conference USA

99.8

 

 

#

Horizon

PiRate

1

Wright St.

104.2

2

Northern Kentucky

101.0

3

Green Bay

97.7

4

Oakland

96.9

5

Youngstown St.

96.5

6

Milwaukee

94.9

7

Illinois Chicago

94.8

8

Detroit

92.6

9

IUPUI

91.4

10

Cleveland St.

91.1

Avg

Horizon

96.1

 

 

#

Ivy

PiRate

1

Yale

108.2

2

Harvard

105.3

3

Penn

102.3

4

Princeton

98.1

5

Dartmouth

97.2

6

Brown

97.1

7

Columbia

95.4

8

Cornell

92.8

Avg

Ivy

99.6

 

 

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

1

Rider

99.2

2

Siena

97.9

3

Monmouth

96.7

4

Quinnipiac

96.1

5

Canisius

95.6

6

Iona

95.2

7

Manhattan

94.9

8

Fairfield

94.9

9

Saint Peter’s

94.5

10

Niagara

91.1

11

Marist

87.7

Avg

Metro Atlantic

94.9

 

 

#

Mid-American

PiRate

1

Akron

106.3

2

Kent St.

105.2

3

Ball St.

104.6

4

Toledo

104.5

5

Buffalo

100.9

6

Bowling Green

99.9

7

Northern Illinois

99.9

8

Central Michigan

99.0

9

Ohio

97.7

10

Miami (O)

97.6

11

Eastern Michigan

96.5

12

Western Michigan

94.7

Avg

Mid-American

100.6

 

 

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

1

Norfolk St.

93.8

2

Bethune Cookman

93.5

3

Morgan St.

91.6

4

North Carolina Central

90.9

5

Florida A&M

89.8

6

North Carolina A&T

89.5

7

Coppin St.

88.6

8

South Carolina St.

88.3

9

Howard

81.8

10

MD Eastern Shore

81.8

11

Delaware St.

80.7

Avg

Mideastern Athletic

88.2

 

 

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

1

Northern Iowa

106.5

2

Bradley

104.5

3

Loyola (Chi.)

103.7

4

Indiana St.

102.5

5

Missouri St.

101.8

6

Drake

101.3

7

Valparaiso

99.5

8

Southern Illinois

99.1

9

Illinois St.

97.3

10

Evansville

96.6

Avg

Missouri Valley

101.3

 

 

#

Mountain West

PiRate

1

San Diego St.

113.6

2

Utah St.

108.9

3

New Mexico

105.6

4

Nevada

105.4

5

Boise St.

104.6

6

Fresno St.

102.3

7

Colorado St.

101.7

8

UNLV

101.6

9

Air Force

99.9

10

Wyoming

92.1

11

San Jose St.

92.0

Avg

Mountain West

102.5

 

 

#

Northeast

PiRate

1

St. Francis (PA)

99.7

2

Sacred Heart

97.9

3

Bryant

97.2

4

Robert Morris

95.2

5

Long Island

94.6

6

Merrimack

92.9

7

Mount St. Mary’s

92.7

8

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.6

9

Wagner

91.2

10

St. Francis (NY)

89.9

11

Central Connecticut

81.3

Avg

Northeast

93.1

 

 

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

1

Belmont

107.4

2

Murray St.

102.5

3

Austin Peay

98.5

4

Eastern Illinois

96.7

5

Jacksonville St.

95.9

6

Tennessee St.

95.2

7

Morehead St.

93.8

8

UT-Martin

91.4

9

SE Missouri

90.0

10

Eastern Kentucky

89.6

11

Tennessee Tech

87.6

12

SIU Edwardsville

87.6

Avg

Ohio Valley

94.7

 

 

#

Pac-12

PiRate

1

Arizona

117.0

2

Oregon

114.6

3

Colorado

111.6

4

Washington

110.8

5

Stanford

109.6

6

Oregon St.

107.7

7

Arizona St.

107.2

8

USC

107.1

9

Utah

105.6

10

UCLA

104.0

11

Washington St.

102.1

12

California

99.4

Avg

Pac-12

108.1

 

 

#

Patriot

PiRate

1

Colgate

102.2

2

Lafayette

97.7

3

Boston U

97.2

4

American

96.8

5

Navy

96.3

6

Bucknell

95.8

7

Loyola (MD)

95.6

8

Lehigh

94.4

9

Army

91.8

10

Holy Cross

88.2

Avg

Patriot

95.6

 

 

#

Southeastern

PiRate

1

Auburn

114.8

2

Kentucky

114.7

3

Florida

112.9

4

LSU

112.9

5

Arkansas

112.1

6

Alabama

110.6

7

Tennessee

110.0

8

Missouri

109.0

9

Georgia

108.3

10

Mississippi St.

108.3

11

Mississippi

105.1

12

South Carolina

103.9

13

Vanderbilt

103.2

14

Texas A&M

100.9

Avg

Southeastern

109.1

 

 

#

Southern

PiRate

1

East Tennessee St.

108.6

2

Furman

107.9

3

UNC Greensboro

106.2

4

Wofford

102.7

5

Western Carolina

100.8

6

Chattanooga

98.0

7

Samford

96.5

8

Mercer

94.2

9

VMI

92.5

10

Citadel

92.4

Avg

Southern

100.0

 

 

#

Southland

PiRate

1

Stephen F. Austin

102.4

2

UT Arlington

102.2

3

Sam Houston St.

99.8

4

Nicholls St.

98.4

5

Abilene Christian

96.4

6

Lamar

93.9

7

McNeese St.

93.8

8

Texas A&M CC

92.3

9

New Orleans

91.5

10

Central Arkansas

89.3

11

SE Louisiana

89.2

12

Northwestern St.

88.3

13

Houston Baptist

86.5

14

Incarnate Word

83.2

Avg

Southland

93.4

 

 

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

1

Prairie View A&M

96.1

2

Texas Southern

93.4

3

Grambling

92.3

4

Alcorn St.

90.0

5

Southern

89.4

6

Jackson St.

88.7

7

Alabama A&M

87.8

8

Alabama St.

87.1

9

Arkansas Pine Bluff

85.0

10

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Avg

Southwestern Athletic

88.7

 

 

#

Summit

PiRate

1

South Dakota St.

101.3

2

North Dakota St.

101.2

3

Oral Roberts

101.0

4

Omaha

98.7

5

South Dakota

97.1

6

North Dakota

97.1

7

Purdue Fort Wayne

95.7

8

Western Illinois

89.4

9

Denver

89.3

Avg

Summit

96.8

 

 

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

1

Georgia St.

104.7

2

Texas St.

101.5

3

Georgia Southern

100.8

4

Coastal Carolina

100.8

5

Little Rock

100.2

6

Appalachian St.

99.9

7

South Alabama

99.1

8

Arkansas St.

95.3

9

Louisiana

95.2

10

Louisiana Monroe

95.1

11

Troy

94.4

Avg

Sun Belt

98.8

 

 

#

West Coast

PiRate

1

Gonzaga

117.6

2

BYU

112.7

3

Saint Mary’s

111.4

4

San Francisco

104.9

5

Santa Clara

101.2

6

Pacific

100.5

7

Pepperdine

100.2

8

San Diego

97.5

9

Loyola Marymount

97.2

10

Portland

95.1

Avg

West Coast

103.8

 

 

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

1

New Mexico St.

105.8

2

California Baptist

99.4

3

Grand Canyon

96.0

4

Missouri-KC

95.9

5

Seattle

95.7

6

Cal St. Bakersfield

95.6

7

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.0

8

Utah Valley

94.8

9

Chicago St.

77.8

Avg

Western Athletic

95.1

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

Conference

PiRate

1

Big Ten

112.3

2

Big 12

111.6

3

Big East

111.2

4

Atlantic Coast

109.4

5

Southeastern

109.1

6

Pac-12

108.1

7

American Athletic

105.7

8

West Coast

103.8

9

Atlantic 10

103.4

10

Mountain West

102.5

11

Missouri Valley

101.3

12

Mid-American

100.6

13

Southern

100.0

14

Conference USA

99.8

15

Ivy

99.6

16

Sun Belt

98.8

17

Colonial Athletic

97.6

18

Big Sky

96.9

19

Summit

96.8

20

Horizon

96.1

21

Big West

96.1

22

Patriot

95.6

23

Western Athletic

95.1

24

American East

94.9

25

Metro Atlantic

94.9

26

Ohio Valley

94.7

27

Atlantic Sun

94.4

28

Southland

93.4

29

Northeast

93.1

30

Big South

93.0

31

Southwestern Athletic

88.7

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.2

 

What Stats Best Correlate To Winning in 2020?

 

To the love of all mathematics professors, the 21st Century has been the dawning of the age of analytics.  What was once considered a fancy of eccentric mathematics geniuses, maybe more properly suited for discussion at meetings of the Prometheus Society, now advanced sports metrics are not just accepted, they are leading front and center when game strategy is determined.

In the present time, prospective coaches and managers are frequently given tests to gauge their proficiency in analytics.  One baseball manager endured a six-hour long interview that required him to look at spreadsheets full of analytics data and asked to show the general manager what data was crucial.

Obviously, professional sports teams are leaving no analytical stone unturned and sparing no expense to discover how to maximize team efficiency.  It has now moved to the collegiate level as well, as nearly each of the 353 Division 1 College Basketball teams has at least one person in charge of analyzing advanced metrics.

A large number of fans follow along in this mathematical calculation.  There are numerous sites online that compute many of the same metrics that are used to determine how a team should be playing.  The result–most college teams today know exactly how to strategize their rosters for what they hope is maximum efficiency.  Of course, the human element still greatly affects these decisions, because players are not robots with computer chips.  John Q. Jumpshot will not connect on 41.7% of his three-point attempts in every game.  Joe Powers cannot grab 11.1% of all the available rebounds in every game.  Andy Assistman cannot get an assist on exactly one out of every nine possessions every night.

In baseball, it has become known over time that certain statistics tend to correlate to winning more than others.  For instance batting average is a very poor indicator of winning percentage in Major League Baseball.  On-Base Average and Slugging Percentage are better statistics that have better correlations.  Weighted On-Base Average (a stat created by the incredible Tom Tango) is an even better indicator.  Fielding Independent Pitching, once thought to be the most ideal pitching metric, has slowly been given less “oomph” as data has shown that some pitchers can cause batters to consistently not hit balls on the meat part of the bat.  Knuckleball pitchers may not strike out a lot of batters, but then unless their pitch spins twice on its way to the plate, very few batters will get clean wood on the pitch.

Basketball also has certain statistics that correlate better with winning games than other statistics.  Obviously scoring margin is an excellent stat, but what we are looking for are the stats that lead to better scoring margin and thus winning percentage.  How does regular field goal percentage rate at finding winning teams, and can a coach simply go with his five best shooters and hope to maximize wins?

What about the exact opposite?  What if a coach plays the five players that best limit opponents’ shooting percentage?  Will this lead to more victories than playing the five best shooters?

What about rebounding, the ability to block shots, or the ability to steal the ball?  Or, what about having the five best players at protecting the ball and limiting turnovers?

Let’s take a look at some of the more popular statistics and see how they correlate to the current NCAA basketball season.  We will look at each stat and then compare it to won-loss record.  We will use the stats as provided by Sports-Reference.com and the NCAA itself.

 

Offensive Field Goal Percentage

Rk

Team

FG%

Won

Lost

1

Dayton

52.5

13

2

2

McNeese State

51.9

6

9

3

Kansas

51.0

12

2

4

Gonzaga

50.1

17

1

5

Loyola (IL)

50.1

10

6

6

Stephen F. Austin

49.7

13

3

7

New Mexico

49.4

14

3

8

Louisiana State

49.2

10

4

9

Arizona

48.8

11

4

10

Brigham Young

48.8

12

5

11

Duke

48.6

14

1

12

Saint Mary’s (CA)

48.5

15

3

13

Oregon

48.4

13

3

14

Air Force

48.3

8

8

15

Furman

48.3

14

3

16

Tennessee State

48.3

10

6

17

Michigan

48.2

11

4

18

Murray State

48.2

10

5

19

Santa Clara

48.2

14

3

20

Belmont

48.1

11

5

 

There is an obvious correlation here, as the object of the game is to put the ball through the hoop to score points and to score more points than the other team.  However, the correlation is not terrific.  McNeese State is the second best shooting team in the nation with this plain, old-fashioned statistic, and they are 6-9 this year.

In past seasons, the field goal percentage correlation has been rather consistently similar to this season.  It is a wonderful thing to be able to shoot the ball in the basket better than other teams, but on the whole, there are other statistics with better correlations.

Defensive Field Goal Percentage

 

Rk

Team

dFG%

Won

Lost

1

Virginia

34.7

11

3

2

Memphis

35.0

12

3

3

West Virginia

35.7

12

2

4

San Diego State

36.3

16

0

5

Ohio State

36.3

11

4

6

Sacramento State

36.4

9

4

7

Louisville

36.5

12

3

8

Liberty

36.5

17

1

9

Yale

36.6

10

4

10

Washington

37.0

11

5

11

Michigan State

37.0

13

3

12

Vermont

37.1

10

6

13

Kansas

37.1

12

2

14

Butler

37.2

14

1

15

Arizona

37.2

11

4

16

Rutgers

37.3

12

3

17

Maryland

37.3

13

2

18

Missouri

37.6

8

6

19

UC-Irvine

37.7

8

8

20

Baylor

37.8

12

1

 

On the surface, this looks like it has a higher correlation with winning than offensive field goal percentage, and as a former basketball coach, I will confirm that a team that can prevent the opponent from getting good shots will win more consistently than a team that can shoot a high percentage of shots.  A great shooting team will have a few off nights, but a great defensive team will be more consistent.

There are still a couple of teams in this metric that are not world-beaters.  Sacramento State isn’t a team that you will see in the Sweet 16 in 11 weeks.  But, on the other hand, it is highly conceivable that 19 of these 20 teams will make the Big Dance.  So, we must conclude that dFG% is more predictive of overall success than offensive FG%, but there are still better indicators.

 

3-point Field Goal Percentage 

 

Rk

Team

3pt%

Won

Lost

1

McNeese State

42.1

6

9

2

Saint Mary’s

42.1

15

3

3

Air Force

41.5

8

8

4

Indiana State

40.9

8

6

5

Marquette

40.5

11

4

6

Northeastern

40.3

9

8

7

Brigham Young

39.5

12

5

8

South Dakota

39.3

10

7

9

Vanderbilt

39.3

8

6

10

Oregon

39.2

13

3

11

Lafayette

39.1

9

5

12

Georgia State

39.0

11

6

13

Alcorn State

38.9

5

8

14

Nevada

38.7

10

6

15

North Florida

38.7

10

8

16

Portland

38.7

9

8

17

Gonzaga

38.6

17

1

18

Saint Peter’s

38.6

6

7

19

Wofford

38.6

10

6

20

Stanford

38.5

13

2

 

This is obviously a much  weaker correlation than the prior statistics.  Once again, McNeese State throws a monkey wrench into this metric.  The Cowboys have a couple players shooting over 50% from behind the arc, but look at their 6-9 record.  Additionally, a majority of the teams in this list will not be hearing their names called on Selection Sunday.  To be honest, some of these teams are going to start Spring Break after just one conference tournament game in March.

 

Defensive 3-point Field Goal Percentage 

 

Rk

Team

d3pt%

Won

Lost

1

Arkansas

22.7

12

2

2

West Virginia

23.5

12

2

3

Sacramento State

25.1

9

4

4

Nicholls State

25.6

10

6

5

Nevada

26.1

10

6

6

Georgia State

26.1

11

6

7

San Diego State

26.2

16

0

8

Butler

26.4

14

1

9

Virginia

26.5

11

3

10

Northern Kentucky

26.9

10

6

11

Akron

26.9

12

3

12

Florida International

27.0

11

5

13

East Tennessee State

27.2

14

3

14

Yale

27.3

10

4

15

Oklahoma State

27.5

9

5

16

Jacksonville

27.5

8

9

17

Idaho State

27.5

5

8

18

Missouri

27.6

8

6

19

George Washington

27.6

6

9

20

Liberty

27.7

17

1

 

Just like the regular field goal percentages, three-point field goal defense has a better correlation to winning than offensive three-point percentage.  It’s not the best metric, but the correlation is higher than the offensive counterpart, and it has a bit weaker correlation than regular dFG%.

 

Rebounding Margin

 

Rk

Team

Reb Marg

Won

Lost

1

Houston

11.8

12

3

2

Murray St.

10.9

10

5

3

Illinois

10.8

11

5

4

Michigan St.

10.5

13

3

5

Pacific

10.4

14

4

6

UC Irvine

10.2

8

8

7

Rutgers

10.1

12

3

8

North Carolina

9.7

8

7

9

Indiana

9.7

12

3

10

Duke

9.2

14

1

11

UCLA

8.6

8

7

12

CSU Bakersfield

8.6

7

10

13

SFA

8.5

13

3

14

New Hampshire

8.4

8

7

15

SMU

8.4

12

2

16

Southern Utah

8.4

10

5

17

Maryland

8.2

13

2

18

Gonzaga

8.1

17

1

19

Utah St.

7.9

13

5

20

West Virginia

7.9

12

2

 

Here we have an interesting correlation.  North Carolina is the only anomaly in the top 10 in this stat, and the Tar Heels have suffered four major injuries to their roster.  In that time, their rebounding margin has come down.

It is obvious that if one team gets additional chances to score and limits the opponent from getting additional chances to score, then weaker shooting accuracy can beat better shooting accuracy.

This statistic tends to be more consistent than other conventional statistics.  The coaches that produce big rebounding advantages throughout their careers tend to place their teams in the top 20 of this stat year after year.  Tom Izzo teams always finish high up in this stat.  Mick Cronin’s teams have routinely been in the top 20 while at Murray State, Cincinnati, and now UCLA.

There are some outliers here.  Cal St. Bakersfield and New Hampshire are not likely to be playing in the NCAA Tournament, but as a whole, this stat has a decent correlation for a straight counting stat.

Let’s now get into some advanced metrics with rate stats over counting stats.

True Shooting Percentage

College True Shooting percentage is:   Points*100/ 2*(FGA+{.475*FTA})

Rk

Team

TS%

Won

Lost

1

McNeese State

62.3

6

9

2

Dayton

62.2

13

2

3

Air Force

61.0

8

8

4

Saint Mary’s

59.4

15

3

5

Northeastern

59.3

9

8

6

Lafayette

59.1

9

5

7

Brigham Young

59.0

12

5

8

Kansas

58.9

12

2

9

Western Carolina

58.9

11

3

10

California Baptist

58.8

11

5

11

Furman

58.7

14

3

12

Santa Clara

58.7

14

3

13

Gonzaga

58.5

17

1

14

Northern Iowa

58.5

13

2

15

Liberty

58.5

17

1

16

Utah

58.4

10

4

17

New Mexico

58.4

14

3

18

Wofford

58.3

10

6

19

Arizona

58.2

11

4

20

Southern Methodist

58.1

12

2

 

Once again, we have McNeese State making a metric to be less positively correlative.  The Cowboys will obviously win some games this year just by shooting the other team out of the gym, but don’t look for McNeese to be making the field of 68.

 

Defensive True Shooting Percentage

Rk

Team

TS%

Won

Lost

1

Virginia

43.8

11

3

2

Memphis

44.5

12

3

3

Sacramento State

44.6

9

4

4

West Virginia

45.2

12

2

5

Liberty

45.2

17

1

6

Butler

45.2

14

1

7

Ohio State

45.4

11

4

8

Yale

45.5

10

4

9

Michigan State

45.6

13

3

10

Washington

45.9

11

5

11

Maryland

45.9

13

2

12

Louisville

46.0

12

3

13

Stanford

46.1

13

2

14

San Diego State

46.2

16

0

15

Baylor

46.2

12

1

16

Akron

46.2

12

3

17

Arkansas

46.3

12

2

18

Rutgers

46.5

12

3

19

Kansas

46.6

12

2

20

Temple

47.1

9

5

 

Now, we’re getting somewhere.  This rate stat returns 20 teams with winning records.  Sacramento State rates rather high here, but their 9-4 record is actually proof that this metric has a lot of value.  This metric has a nice correlation with points allowed per possession.  If a team rates in the top 20 here, and they have just average rebounding and turnover rates, they are going to win a majority of their games.

 

Let’s take a look at pace.  How have the teams with the fastest pace fared as opposed to the teams with the slowest pace?  Can we find anything here?

 

Fastest Pace

Rk

Team

Pace

Won

Lost

1

Houston Baptist

80.4

1

11

2

Mississippi Valley State

80.3

0

13

3

Alabama

78.1

8

6

4

Eastern Kentucky

78.1

5

11

5

Citadel

77.9

6

8

6

Central Arkansas

77.9

4

12

7

Eastern Washington

77.7

9

6

8

Florida International

77.5

11

5

9

Central Michigan

77.1

9

6

10

Long Island University

76.4

6

9

11

Stephen F. Austin

76.4

13

3

12

Delaware State

76.3

1

14

13

Marshall

76.2

8

8

14

Green Bay

76.2

7

10

15

Memphis

76.0

12

3

16

Texas Southern

75.7

4

11

17

St. John’s

75.6

11

5

18

Sam Houston State

75.5

11

5

19

Buffalo

75.5

9

6

20

Texas-San Antonio

75.5

7

9

 

Ugh!  We have two of the weakest teams in D1 basketball at the top of this list!  This is a negative correlation if we’ve ever seen one.  Is this something that has been consistent throughout the years in college basketball?  It hasn’t always been this way.  The great UCLA, UNLV, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Duke teams from the past were some of the most up-tempo teams in basketball.

What we have here are poor teams where the coaches run up-tempo to keep fans in the seats and to try to attract better recruits, promising them that they can lead the nation in scoring.  Fans will turn out to see their team lose 110-100.  If they lose 50-45, they will stay home and watch reruns of Barney Miller or look at Messi the Puma on Youtube.

Slowest Pace

Rk

Team

Pace

Won

Lost

1

Virginia

60.2

11

3

2

Navy

61.3

8

6

3

Liberty

62.3

17

1

4

Marist

64.4

2

11

5

Southern Illinois

64.4

8

8

6

Fairfield

64.5

5

9

7

Wisconsin

64.5

9

6

8

Butler

64.5

14

1

9

Sacramento State

64.8

9

4

10

Nevada-Las Vegas

65.0

8

9

11

Radford

65.1

7

7

12

Pacific

65.1

14

4

13

Purdue

65.2

9

7

14

UC-Santa Barbara

65.3

12

4

15

Merrimack

65.3

8

8

16

Saint Mary’s

65.3

15

3

17

Fresno State

65.4

5

11

18

Wofford

65.5

10

6

19

Maine

65.6

4

12

20

UC-Riverside

65.7

11

6

 

Once again, this isn’t the best correlation.  Rik Smits isn’t walking through the door at Marist.  Walt Frazier isn’t going to lead Southern Illinois to riches this year.  As a whole, this metric is only marginally better than the opposite.  And, in past years, teams that led in slowest pace were teams that played deliberate offenses trying to steal victories with less talent than the opponent.  However, with the 30-second shot clock, teams with the slowest pace in their games are more likely to be the ones that play smothering defenses that prevent opponents from getting cheap open shots.

 

Advanced Analytics

Up to now, we have shown you easy calculations.  You can find these numbers online with ease.  What about more advanced stats?  What if we start to combine multiple stats in a linear method?  How about we handicap each stat based on formula set out in the works of other metric experts?  Is their a better correlation to be found in a metric similar to Tom Tango’s wOBA?

We at the PiRate Ratings follow the Four Factors of basketball created by Dean Oliver two decades ago.  The Four Factors are reall eight factors, because they are applied to both offense and defense.  They are:

  1. Effective Field Goal Percentage

  2. Turnover Rate

  3. Rebound Rate

  4. Free Throw Rate

There are differing opinions on how to calculate FT rate.  The original formula was FTA/FGA or the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.  Oliver believed that getting to the foul line was more important than free throw percentage.

Others altered this to FT Made/FGA, believing that adding FT% into the ability to get to the foul line was a better way to gauge success.  However, this stat can be a little misleading.  The team that is ahead in the final minutes frequently holds the ball to the end of the shot clock forcing the other team to foul.  Additionally, this means the leading team does not try to shoot a field goal, and thus this rate is artificially inflated.  And, since the leading team almost always wins, the correlation is stronger than it should be.

In 2011, on the Harvard Sports Analysis Blog, author John Ezekowitz offered an alternative that smoothed out the artificial inflation by removing the pace.  He believed that free throws made per 100 possessions was a better metric, and we concurred with his hypothesis.  Testing proved it to be a better indicator in the shot clock era.

 

Our PiRate Ratings uses an algorithm that combines The Four Factors Data with schedule strength to come up with a rating, so in essence our PiRate Rating for each team is a linear statistic similar to wOBA in baseball.  The one difference is that it takes wOBA and applies is to both offense and defense.  In essence, it is like combining offense, pitching, and fielding in baseball into one total cumulative stat.

 

Obviously, we are not going to reveal our algorithm to the public, but we can reveal the handicapped weightings that  have been accepted through the years by the analytics community.  To which, they are:

  1. Effective Field Goal Percentage 40%

  2. Turnover Rate 25%

  3. Rebound Rate 20%

  4. Free Throw Rate 15%

What if we calculated the Four Factors for every team and then applied this weighting above to find the top 20 teams in this linear formula?  Might it be more positively correlating than the other stats?

Here is the top 20 teams ranked by a combination of weighted Offensive Four Factors minus their weighted Defensive Four Factors.

 

Rk

Team

w 4F

Won

Lost

1

Houston

2.963

12

3

2

Pacific

2.886

14

4

3

UC-Irvine

2.885

8

8

4

North Carolina

2.851

8

7

5

Alabama-Birmingham

2.735

10

6

6

Illinois

2.677

11

5

7

Cal State Bakersfield

2.620

7

10

8

UCLA

2.610

8

7

9

Indiana

2.559

12

3

10

UC-Riverside

2.520

11

6

11

Missouri State

2.501

8

8

12

Tennessee State

2.500

10

6

13

Saint Peter’s

2.473

6

7

14

Nevada-Las Vegas

2.442

8

9

15

New Hampshire

2.316

8

7

16

Brown

2.271

7

6

17

Michigan State

2.262

13

3

18

Southern Methodist

2.204

12

2

19

Murray State

2.177

10

5

20

Navy

2.081

8

6

 

Are you a little bit surprised?  Did you expect this to end up with a perfect correlation, where the top 20 teams by won-loss record lined up perfectly one to 20?

This isn’t even all that positive of a correlation!  Houston is a good team, but Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney aren’t suiting up for the Cougars.  Phi Slamma Jamma this isn’t.  To even get to a national title contender this year, you have to go all the way down to #17 Michigan State.

What gives?  Ah, there is one major very important statistic missing here.

Let’s take a look at an unnamed baseball player.  We will call him Harold Horsehide so you cannot see who this real life baseball player is.  He is real, and he played first base and third base.  Here are his stats for one season in which he was named the Player of the Year by The Sporting News.

Batting Average: .317

On-base Average: .387

Slugging Percentage: .670

Doubles: 36

Triples: 14

Home Runs: 40

RBI: 126

Now, let’s compare him to another player.  We’ll call him Mr. Michael Carl.

Batting Average: .301

On-base Average: .426

Slugging Percentage: .495

Doubles: 32

Triples: 2

Home Runs: 23

RBI: 74

On the face of it, Harold Horsehide is a much better player than Michael Carl.  His stats blow Carl’s stats out of the water.  Harold is like Pacific in the example above, as his stats are rarely bettered in a season.  Michael’s stats are nice, but you could find stats that good, actually better, on every Major League roster today.

Ah, but there’s a big catch.  Harold Horsehide is actually former Los Angeles Angel/Florida Marlin/Chicago White Sox utility corner infielder Dallas McPherson.  But, these are not stats from any season he played in the Big Leagues.  These are his stellar 2004 Minor League stats with the Arkansas Travelers of the AA Texas League and the Salt Lake City Stingers of the AAA Pacific Coast League.  Throughout baseball, in 2004, the ball was the object that was juiced.

And, who is Michael Carl?  He’s Carl Michael Yastrzemski, Boston Red Sox Hall of Fame legend, and those stats shown are his numbers from 1968, the top year of the pitcher in modern Major League baseball history.

Yaz’s stats were much better and against much stronger pitching, plus his numbers must be compared to the rest of the American League, which hit a combined .230 with an on-base average of just .297, and a slugging percentage of just .339.

In other words, one cannot look at the advanced metrics alone without factoring in the strength of the opponents played.  Maybe you don’t see Kansas at the top of that final metric, but the Jayhawks have played a schedule to date even more difficult than what an average National Champion must face during March Madness!  While Pacific fattened up on teams you probably have never heard of, like Cal State Stanislaus and Pacific Union, Kansas has faced Duke, West Virginia, Villanova, Colorado, Stanford, Iowa State, Dayton, and BYU.  Their easier games include NCAA Tournament contenders East Tennessee State and UNC Greensboro.  ETSU has a win at LSU.

 

Conclusion: If you want a really successful metric that predicts future success, look at the Four Factors but then look at schedule strength.  Basketball is very much like thoroughbred horse racing.  The $10,000 claimer and the Grade 1 Classic horse may both win a 1 1/8 race at different tracks in the same time.  Put that claimer in the Kentucky Derby against the G1 winner, and he’s going to be farther out at the finish than the 1962 New York Mets.   Likewise, the top team in the Northeast Conference is not going to beat the bottom team in the Big East.  St. John’s would beat Robert Morris 98% of the time.  Apply the right schedule strength adjustment, and you get this top 20.

#

Team

PiRate

1

Duke

122.6

2

Kansas

121.8

3

Michigan St.

120.3

4

Gonzaga

117.6

5

Ohio St.

117.5

6

Arizona

117.0

7

Maryland

116.8

8

Louisville

116.1

9

Dayton

116.0

10

Baylor

115.7

11

Butler

115.4

12

Florida St.

115.1

13

Seton Hall

115.0

14

West Virginia

114.9

15

Auburn

114.8

16

Kentucky

114.7

17

Oregon

114.6

18

Michigan

113.9

19

San Diego St.

113.6

20

Penn St.

112.9

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