PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	19.3	18.9	20.6
Detroit	Tampa Bay	1.2	-1.8	-2.0
Washington	Philadelphia	-6.6	-4.1	-4.0
Green Bay	Chicago	1.0	3.5	3.6
Cincinnati	New England	-12.2	-12.8	-11.9
Tennessee	Houston	4.0	4.3	4.7
Carolina	Seattle	-5.0	-5.0	-5.0
Kansas City	Denver	7.8	8.0	8.0
N. Y. Giants	Miami	5.7	5.5	5.8
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	5.3	5.7	5.2
Oakland	Jacksonville	4.1	4.0	4.3
Arizona	Cleveland	-3.9	-4.1	-3.6
San Francisco	Atlanta	13.7	14.5	15.3
Dallas	LA Rams	-1.5	-0.2	-1.2
LA Chargers	Minnesota	0.1	1.3	0.4
New Orleans	Indianapolis	11.2	8.3	9.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	45.5
Detroit	Tampa Bay	53.5
Washington	Philadelphia	42
Green Bay	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	New England	42
Tennessee	Houston	44.5
Carolina	Seattle	50
Kansas City	Denver	50
N. Y. Giants	Miami	52
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	37.5
Oakland	Jacksonville	43.5
Arizona	Cleveland	47
San Francisco	Atlanta	51.5
Dallas	LA Rams	47
LA Chargers	Minnesota	44
New Orleans	Indianapolis	50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.8	108.4	107.8	108.0	19.5	10-3
Buffalo	101.8	102.8	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-4
N. Y. Jets	94.5	95.1	94.1	94.6	21	5-8
Miami	89.7	90.0	89.9	89.9	27.5	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.4	112.2	111.7	24.5	11-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.1	100.6	100.0	20	8-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	6-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	102.5	103.0	103.1	102.9	20.5	8-5
Houston	101.5	101.7	101.4	101.6	24	8-5
Indianapolis	99.1	100.1	99.6	99.6	23.5	6-7
Jacksonville	90.7	90.7	90.5	90.6	18	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.4	105.1	104.9	104.8	30.5	9-4
LA Chargers	104.1	104.0	103.4	103.8	22	5-8
Denver	99.7	100.1	99.9	99.9	19.5	5-8
Oakland	91.8	91.7	91.8	91.8	25.5	6-7
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	102.6	102.9	102.4	102.6	22	6-7
Philadelphia	101.0	99.4	99.0	99.8	24	6-7
N.Y. Giants	92.9	93.0	93.2	93.0	24.5	2-11
Washington	91.9	92.8	92.5	92.4	18	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.5	105.2	105.4	105.7	22	9-4
Green Bay	101.7	101.8	102.0	101.8	24.5	10-3
Chicago	103.2	100.8	100.9	101.6	18	7-6
Detroit	97.3	95.8	95.9	96.4	23.5	3-9-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.3	105.4	105.8	106.2	26.5	10-3
Tampa Bay	99.1	100.6	101.0	100.2	30	6-7
Atlanta	98.6	98.7	98.4	98.5	26	4-9
Carolina	95.2	95.0	95.2	95.1	26	5-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.3	110.2	110.7	110.1	25.5	11-2
LA Rams	106.6	105.6	106.1	106.1	25	8-5
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.2	103.1	24	10-3
Arizona	92.8	92.9	93.4	93.0	24	3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.