The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

19.3

18.9

20.6

Detroit

Tampa Bay

1.2

-1.8

-2.0

Washington

Philadelphia

-6.6

-4.1

-4.0

Green Bay

Chicago

1.0

3.5

3.6

Cincinnati

New England

-12.2

-12.8

-11.9

Tennessee

Houston

4.0

4.3

4.7

Carolina

Seattle

-5.0

-5.0

-5.0

Kansas City

Denver

7.8

8.0

8.0

N. Y. Giants

Miami

5.7

5.5

5.8

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

5.3

5.7

5.2

Oakland

Jacksonville

4.1

4.0

4.3

Arizona

Cleveland

-3.9

-4.1

-3.6

San Francisco

Atlanta

13.7

14.5

15.3

Dallas

LA Rams

-1.5

-0.2

-1.2

LA Chargers

Minnesota

0.1

1.3

0.4

New Orleans

Indianapolis

11.2

8.3

9.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

45.5

Detroit

Tampa Bay

53.5

Washington

Philadelphia

42

Green Bay

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

New England

42

Tennessee

Houston

44.5

Carolina

Seattle

50

Kansas City

Denver

50

N. Y. Giants

Miami

52

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

37.5

Oakland

Jacksonville

43.5

Arizona

Cleveland

47

San Francisco

Atlanta

51.5

Dallas

LA Rams

47

LA Chargers

Minnesota

44

New Orleans

Indianapolis

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

107.8

108.4

107.8

108.0

19.5

10-3

Buffalo

101.8

102.8

102.8

102.5

17.5

9-4

N. Y. Jets

94.5

95.1

94.1

94.6

21

5-8

Miami

89.7

90.0

89.9

89.9

27.5

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.4

112.2

111.7

24.5

11-2

Pittsburgh

99.5

100.1

100.6

100.0

20

8-5

Cleveland

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.4

23

6-7

Cincinnati

93.2

93.1

93.4

93.2

22.5

1-12

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.5

103.0

103.1

102.9

20.5

8-5

Houston

101.5

101.7

101.4

101.6

24

8-5

Indianapolis

99.1

100.1

99.6

99.6

23.5

6-7

Jacksonville

90.7

90.7

90.5

90.6

18

4-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.4

105.1

104.9

104.8

30.5

9-4

LA Chargers

104.1

104.0

103.4

103.8

22

5-8

Denver

99.7

100.1

99.9

99.9

19.5

5-8

Oakland

91.8

91.7

91.8

91.8

25.5

6-7

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

102.6

102.9

102.4

102.6

22

6-7

Philadelphia

101.0

99.4

99.0

99.8

24

6-7

N.Y. Giants

92.9

93.0

93.2

93.0

24.5

2-11

Washington

91.9

92.8

92.5

92.4

18

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.5

105.2

105.4

105.7

22

9-4

Green Bay

101.7

101.8

102.0

101.8

24.5

10-3

Chicago

103.2

100.8

100.9

101.6

18

7-6

Detroit

97.3

95.8

95.9

96.4

23.5

3-9-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.3

105.4

105.8

106.2

26.5

10-3

Tampa Bay

99.1

100.6

101.0

100.2

30

6-7

Atlanta

98.6

98.7

98.4

98.5

26

4-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

109.3

110.2

110.7

110.1

25.5

11-2

LA Rams

106.6

105.6

106.1

106.1

25

8-5

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

10-3

Arizona

92.8

92.9

93.4

93.0

24

3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: