PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Ohio	-27.7	-27.1	-29.3
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	-9.4	-9.2	-9.0
Thursday	November 28
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	3.7	1.2	7.5
Friday	November 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas	Missouri	-20.0	-17.5	-19.7
Ball St.	Miami (O)	1.4	2.0	1.1
Buffalo	Bowling Green	27.4	28.6	29.1
Central Florida	South Florida	24.1	22.7	24.1
Central Michigan	Toledo	5.0	5.7	5.7
Colorado St.	Boise St.	-18.1	-15.0	-18.0
Eastern Michigan	Kent St.	3.3	3.6	3.3
Memphis	Cincinnati	7.2	7.9	8.2
Nebraska	Iowa	-9.5	-7.8	-10.2
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	-13.9	-11.7	-14.0
TCU	West Virginia	10.3	12.6	11.2
Texas	Texas Tech	6.6	6.5	7.0
Troy	Appalachian St.	-13.8	-12.7	-14.5
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-1.7	-1.8	-2.5
Washington	Washington St.	2.2	2.4	2.6
Saturday	November 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Wyoming	7.8	7.7	8.3
Arizona St.	Arizona	12.6	12.5	13.6
Auburn	Alabama	-5.0	-3.7	-5.9
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	10.9	11.6	11.3
Duke	Miami (Fla.)	-4.6	-5.0	-6.1
East Carolina	Tulsa	-6.6	-5.9	-7.9
Florida	Florida St.	22.5	20.0	22.1
Florida Atlantic	Southern Miss.	6.6	7.7	7.3
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	7.3	6.2	7.5
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-34.6	-34.0	-34.5
Hawaii	Army	4.6	5.7	4.3
Houston	Navy	0.9	-0.5	1.8
Illinois	Northwestern	4.6	6.4	6.1
Kansas	Baylor	-14.0	-13.1	-13.3
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	-0.4	-1.2	-0.7
Kentucky	Louisville	9.2	8.1	8.1
Liberty	New Mexico St.	16.5	15.7	16.8
Louisiana	UL-Monroe	19.5	19.3	19.7
Louisiana Tech	Texas-San Antonio	20.7	19.1	20.5
LSU	Texas A&M	16.0	15.2	16.6
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	6.3	6.3	7.2
Michigan	Ohio St.	-9.6	-9.9	-10.1
Michigan St.	Maryland	18.6	18.8	19.7
Minnesota	Wisconsin	1.3	1.3	0.9
Nevada	UNLV	8.8	8.8	8.7
New Mexico	Utah St.	-14.8	-12.0	-16.7
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-10.4	-11.2	-11.6
North Texas	UAB	0.3	-2.1	-0.4
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	-10.2	-8.8	-10.0
Old Dominion	Charlotte	-12.0	-12.2	-12.6
Oregon	Oregon St.	20.2	19.2	21.2
Penn St.	Rutgers	42.0	41.6	43.5
Pittsburgh	Boston College	5.9	6.0	6.1
Purdue	Indiana	-4.7	-3.9	-5.1
San Diego St.	BYU	-2.5	-1.0	-2.4
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	-3.4	-2.6	-3.4
SMU	Tulane	6.7	5.9	6.5
South Carolina	Clemson	-27.0	-26.9	-29.2
Stanford	Notre Dame	-15.5	-15.4	-16.3
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-0.6	-0.7	-1.8
Temple	Connecticut	30.4	27.2	32.2
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	19.4	20.7	20.4
UCLA	California	-1.9	-1.9	-2.7
Utah	Colorado	31.2	30.4	31.8
UTEP	Rice	-12.2	-9.6	-11.5
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	8.1	9.5	9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
2	Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
3	L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
4	Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
5	Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
8	Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
9	Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
10	Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
11	Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
12	Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
13	Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
14	Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
15	Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
16	Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
17	Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
18	Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
19	Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
20	Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
21	Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
22	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
23	Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
24	Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
25	Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
26	Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
27	Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
31	Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
32	T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
33	Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
34	Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
35	Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
36	South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
37	Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
38	Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
39	Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
40	Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
41	Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
42	North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
43	Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
44	Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
45	Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
46	Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
47	Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
48	Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
49	Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
50	SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
51	Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
52	Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
53	Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
54	California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
55	Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
56	BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
57	Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
58	West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
59	Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
60	Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
61	Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
62	Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
63	Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
64	Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
65	Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
66	Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
67	Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
68	U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
69	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
70	Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
71	Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
72	Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
73	San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
74	Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
75	Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
76	Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
77	Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
78	Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
79	Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
80	Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
81	Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
82	Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
83	Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
85	Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
86	North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
87	Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
88	Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
89	Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
90	Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
93	Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
95	Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
96	Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
97	Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
98	Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
99	Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
100	U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
101	Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
102	South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
103	Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
104	Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
105	Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
106	Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
107	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
108	Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
109	Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
111	Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
112	Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
113	North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
114	Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
115	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
116	East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
117	Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
118	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
119	Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
120	New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
121	Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
122	Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
123	New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
124	South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
125	Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
126	Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
127	U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
128	Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
129	Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
ACC Averages	104.8	104.2	105.0	104.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9
Indep. Averages	90.0	90.7	89.7	90.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.3	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.4	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	107.2	107.7	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
SEC Averages	113.8	112.0	113.5	113.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.4	90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Pac-12	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conf. USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Appalachian St.
5	Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

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The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Marshall]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Utah
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Ky.	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Central Michigan]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Missouri
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Florida Int’l.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Utah St.
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Georgia	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections