The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 24, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:48 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Akron

Ohio

-27.7

-27.1

-29.3

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

-9.4

-9.2

-9.0

 

 

Thursday

November 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Mississippi St.

Ole Miss

3.7

1.2

7.5

 

 

Friday

November 29

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas

Missouri

-20.0

-17.5

-19.7

Ball St.

Miami (O)

1.4

2.0

1.1

Buffalo

Bowling Green

27.4

28.6

29.1

Central Florida

South Florida

24.1

22.7

24.1

Central Michigan

Toledo

5.0

5.7

5.7

Colorado St.

Boise St.

-18.1

-15.0

-18.0

Eastern Michigan

Kent St.

3.3

3.6

3.3

Memphis

Cincinnati

7.2

7.9

8.2

Nebraska

Iowa

-9.5

-7.8

-10.2

South Alabama

Arkansas St.

-13.9

-11.7

-14.0

TCU

West Virginia

10.3

12.6

11.2

Texas

Texas Tech

6.6

6.5

7.0

Troy

Appalachian St.

-13.8

-12.7

-14.5

Virginia

Virginia Tech

-1.7

-1.8

-2.5

Washington

Washington St.

2.2

2.4

2.6

 

 

Saturday

November 30

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Air Force

Wyoming

7.8

7.7

8.3

Arizona St.

Arizona

12.6

12.5

13.6

Auburn

Alabama

-5.0

-3.7

-5.9

Coastal Carolina

Texas St.

10.9

11.6

11.3

Duke

Miami (Fla.)

-4.6

-5.0

-6.1

East Carolina

Tulsa

-6.6

-5.9

-7.9

Florida

Florida St.

22.5

20.0

22.1

Florida Atlantic

Southern Miss.

6.6

7.7

7.3

Georgia Southern

Georgia St.

7.3

6.2

7.5

Georgia Tech

Georgia

-34.6

-34.0

-34.5

Hawaii

Army

4.6

5.7

4.3

Houston

Navy

0.9

-0.5

1.8

Illinois

Northwestern

4.6

6.4

6.1

Kansas

Baylor

-14.0

-13.1

-13.3

Kansas St.

Iowa St.

-0.4

-1.2

-0.7

Kentucky

Louisville

9.2

8.1

8.1

Liberty

New Mexico St.

16.5

15.7

16.8

Louisiana

UL-Monroe

19.5

19.3

19.7

Louisiana Tech

Texas-San Antonio

20.7

19.1

20.5

LSU

Texas A&M

16.0

15.2

16.6

Marshall

Florida Int’l.

6.3

6.3

7.2

Michigan

Ohio St.

-9.6

-9.9

-10.1

Michigan St.

Maryland

18.6

18.8

19.7

Minnesota

Wisconsin

1.3

1.3

0.9

Nevada

UNLV

8.8

8.8

8.7

New Mexico

Utah St.

-14.8

-12.0

-16.7

North Carolina St.

North Carolina

-10.4

-11.2

-11.6

North Texas

UAB

0.3

-2.1

-0.4

Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma

-10.2

-8.8

-10.0

Old Dominion

Charlotte

-12.0

-12.2

-12.6

Oregon

Oregon St.

20.2

19.2

21.2

Penn St.

Rutgers

42.0

41.6

43.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

5.9

6.0

6.1

Purdue

Indiana

-4.7

-3.9

-5.1

San Diego St.

BYU

-2.5

-1.0

-2.4

San Jose St.

Fresno St.

-3.4

-2.6

-3.4

SMU

Tulane

6.7

5.9

6.5

South Carolina

Clemson

-27.0

-26.9

-29.2

Stanford

Notre Dame

-15.5

-15.4

-16.3

Syracuse

Wake Forest

-0.6

-0.7

-1.8

Temple

Connecticut

30.4

27.2

32.2

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

19.4

20.7

20.4

UCLA

California

-1.9

-1.9

-2.7

Utah

Colorado

31.2

30.4

31.8

UTEP

Rice

-12.2

-9.6

-11.5

Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee

8.1

9.5

9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

2

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

3

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

4

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

5

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

8

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

9

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

10

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

11

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

12

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

13

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

14

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

15

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

16

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

17

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

18

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

19

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

20

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

21

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

22

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

23

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

24

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

25

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

26

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

27

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

31

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

32

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

33

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

34

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

35

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

36

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

37

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

38

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

39

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

40

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

41

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

42

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

43

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

44

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

45

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

46

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

47

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

48

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

49

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

50

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

51

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

52

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

53

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

54

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

55

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

56

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

57

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

58

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

59

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

60

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

61

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

62

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

63

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

64

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

65

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

66

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

67

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

68

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

69

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

70

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

71

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

72

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

74

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

75

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

76

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

77

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

78

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

79

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

80

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

81

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

82

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

83

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

84

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

85

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

86

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

87

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

88

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

89

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

90

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

91

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

93

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

94

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

95

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

96

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

97

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

98

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

99

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

100

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

101

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

102

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

103

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

104

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

105

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

106

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

107

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

108

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

109

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

111

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

112

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

113

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

114

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

115

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

116

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

118

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

119

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

123

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

124

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

125

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

126

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

127

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

128

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

129

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

ACC Averages

104.8

104.2

105.0

104.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.5

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

Indep. Averages

90.0

90.7

89.7

90.1

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.3

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.4

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

Pac-12 Averages

107.5

107.2

107.7

107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

SEC Averages

113.8

112.0

113.5

113.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.1

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.5

4

Pac-12

107.5

5

Atlantic Coast

104.7

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conf. USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Appalachian St.

5

Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Marshall]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Utah

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Ky.

TCU

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Central Michigan]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Florida Int’l.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Utah St.

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Eastern Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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