The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 14-18, 2019

Your 1962 New York Mets of Selections

The lovable 1962 New York Mets won 40 games in their initial season in Major League Baseball.  There were a couple of star players, and the rest of the roster belonged in the International League.  

That’s how our selections have fared this year.  A couple of times, we came up with some incredible wins on some long shot picks, but the rest of the time, our picks belonged in the bush leagues.

The good thing about the Mets was that eventually 1969 came, and they performed miracles in winning the World Series.  Of course, having player development that brought them Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote, and Bud Harrelson, as well as some nice acquisitions in Tommie Agee and Donn Clendenon, made their roster quite strong.  The PiRate Ratings have not developed any young talent in the last few weeks with hopes that a wagering week like 1969 will create a second miracle.

On the other hand, this has historically been the week that our ratings have enjoyed the most over the last 10 years.  The third week of November has brought us our highest return on imaginary investment (our picks are for entertainment purposes and never actually wagered on by us) of the season.

Three years ago, we hit on some outrageous parlays and outright picks against the spread, making a slight ROI on the year into a windfall profit margin.  Two years ago, we turned a slight deficit on the year into a nice profit that when combined with the bowl season gave us another year in the black.  Last year, we went from large deficit to almost break even after this week.

You can see the trend.  Every year, this week turned the momentum in our direction, but each year, this week reversed more malaise than the previous season.  In 2019, we find ourselves so deep in the whole that even the best ever finish on this week will still leave us well in the red.

So, remember, even though  this week has been rather successful for us in the past, please DO NOT WAGER your money on what you will read below.  If we have not faith in these picks, why should you?

Disclaimer: This does not apply to those handful of Smarts that somehow take our spreads and other data and make money off them somehow in Nevada and in the Caribbean.  How you do it, we do not know.  But, we do know that a group of Smarts uses our ratings and consistently beats the books.  

This week, we are going to issue a few less choices overall, but this is because we feel the heat on us.  This has been a winning week so many times for us that we spent an extra 10 minutes or so per selection looking them over.  We found a couple of special teasers that cross over the important spread numbers.  We isolated on some money line parlays that we feel strong about.

As for our experimental Davey19 system, the biggest difference in the line and its predicted score just so happened to pop up this week.  There is a reason for this.  The oddsmakers definitely consider psychological factors when making the line.  Davey19 has no personality.  Davey is a computer program with no emotion.  

What game are we talking about?  The Iowa-Minnesota game in Iowa City has the Gophers playing on the road in a tough environment coming off their monumental home win over Penn State.  The oddsmakers have Iowa favored in this game as a trap for Minnesota.  Davey19 strictly picks games when its experimental spread differs from the line by more than 3.5 points.  Davey19 says Minnesota is a touchdown better than Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.  That’s a full 10 points different.  Minnesota might indeed suffer a letdown, but 10 points of letdown is a lot.  And, the Gophers aren’t just playing a game following an upset win.  They have a lot more to play for now.  They have the Playoffs in their sites, and for now, every game is the biggest game in school history since Sandy Stephens, Roger Hagberg, and Bobby Bell played for the #3 Gophers against #1 Iowa in 1960.  Yes, this is the biggest game in Minnesota history since they played Iowas 59 years ago and basically secured the national championship with a convincing win over the #1 team.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for the week.

 

PiRate Picks

College Money Line Parlays

 

#1–3 Games at +142

Winner

Loser

Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

Middle Tennessee

Rice

 

#2–3 Games at +148

Winner

Loser

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Florida

Missouri

Kansas St.

West Virginia

 

#3–4 Games at +133

Winner

Loser

Michigan

Michigan St.

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Duke

Syracuse

Texas A&M

South Carolina

 

#4–2 Games at +134

Winner

Loser

Notre Dame

Navy

Georgia

Auburn

 

#5–3 Games at +151

Winner

Loser

Memphis

Houston

Air Force

Colorado St.

Louisville

N. Carolina St.

 

NFL 10-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Denver

0.5

Minnesota

Oakland

Cincinnati

0.5

Oakland

Chicago

LA Rams

3.5

LA Rams

 

NFL 13-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

16

Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay

New Orleans

7.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

Carolina

7.5

Carolina

Washington

N.Y. Jets

14.5

N.Y. Jets

 

Davey19

An Experimental College Football Selection System

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

San Diego St.

1

San Diego St.

Ball St.

Central Michigan

2.5

Ball St.

USC

California

6.5

USC

TCU

Texas Tech

3.5

Texas Tech

Southern Miss.

UTSA

17

UTSA

LSU

Ole Miss

21

Ole Miss

Iowa

Minnesota

3

Minnesota

 

 

 

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