The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 27, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

October 31

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Georgia Southern

16.9

16.3

17.3

Baylor

West Virginia

14.9

15.7

15.4

 

 

Friday

November 1

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Connecticut

Navy

-20.7

-19.8

-22.6

 

 

Saturday

November 2

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest

North Carolina St.

6.2

5.9

6.4

Massachusetts

Liberty

-24.7

-23.9

-26.1

Florida Int’l.

Old Dominion

17.4

16.9

17.3

Coastal Carolina

Troy

-2.6

-2.1

-2.3

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

-7.6

-9.1

-7.4

Purdue

Nebraska

3.5

2.6

3.7

Central Florida

Houston

19.9

18.3

18.7

Maryland

Michigan

-17.1

-16.4

-18.7

Indiana

Northwestern

7.1

7.1

8.0

Bowling Green

Akron

5.9

5.7

7.0

Illinois

Rutgers

19.3

20.6

19.8

East Carolina

Cincinnati

-24.6

-21.8

-25.2

Syracuse

Boston College

6.6

6.3

5.7

Eastern Michigan

Buffalo

-0.6

-1.1

-1.5

North Carolina

Virginia

1.8

1.6

2.8

Utah St.

BYU

4.4

3.6

5.2

Notre Dame

Virginia Tech

19.2

17.4

18.5

USC

Oregon

-5.7

-5.2

-6.6

UCLA

Colorado

7.9

7.8

7.6

Kansas

Kansas St.

-12.0

-10.9

-11.7

Louisiana

Texas St.

22.1

21.5

22.6

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

17.4

16.9

18.1

Central Michigan

Northern Illinois

-7.2

-5.5

-6.5

Rice

Marshall

-8.4

-6.7

-10.0

Colorado St.

UNLV

4.3

6.5

5.1

Memphis

SMU

2.0

2.1

1.3

Texas A&M

UTSA

44.8

40.6

43.9

Air Force

Army

13.5

14.9

15.5

Arizona

Oregon St.

4.3

3.1

4.6

Tennessee

UAB

22.4

20.0

20.2

Auburn

Ole Miss

21.3

20.4

21.5

Florida (n)

Georgia

-3.5

-4.5

-3.8

Oklahoma St.

TCU

5.7

3.5

4.7

North Texas

UTEP

24.4

19.5

23.9

Tulane

Tulsa

10.9

10.8

10.1

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

-11.2

-7.3

-15.8

Charlotte

Middle Tennessee

-5.2

-4.0

-5.2

Western Kentucky

Florida Atlantic

-1.5

-0.3

-0.8

UL-Monroe

Arkansas St.

-2.6

-2.1

-2.4

Florida St.

Miami (Fla.)

2.1

2.9

1.5

Nevada

New Mexico

8.7

7.4

8.8

Washington

Utah

-6.3

-5.7

-6.2

San Jose St.

Boise St.

-16.1

-13.8

-16.7

Hawaii

Fresno St.

5.4

6.0

4.3

 

 

FBS vs.

FCS

Clemson

Wofford

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

2

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

3

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

4

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

5

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

6

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

9

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

10

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

11

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

12

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

13

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

14

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

15

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

16

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

17

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

18

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

21

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

22

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

23

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

24

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

25

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

26

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

27

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

28

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

29

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

30

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

32

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

33

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

34

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

35

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

36

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

37

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

38

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

39

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

40

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

41

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

42

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

43

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

45

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

46

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

47

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

48

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

49

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

50

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

51

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

52

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

53

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

54

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

55

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

56

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

57

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

58

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

59

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

60

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

61

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

62

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

63

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

64

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

65

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

66

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

67

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

68

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

69

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

70

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

71

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

72

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

73

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

74

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

75

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

76

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

77

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

81

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

82

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

83

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

84

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

85

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

86

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

87

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

88

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

89

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

90

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

91

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

92

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

93

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

94

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

95

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

96

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

97

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

98

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

99

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

100

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

101

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

102

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

103

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

104

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

105

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

106

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

107

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

108

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

109

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

110

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

111

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

112

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

114

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

115

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

116

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

118

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

119

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

120

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

121

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

122

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

123

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

124

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

125

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

126

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

127

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

128

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

130

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

3-1

6-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

3-0

6-1

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

0-4

3-5

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

4-0

8-0

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

3-1

7-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

2-2

5-3

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

1-3

3-5

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

4-1

6-1

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

0-4

2-6

AAC Averages

96.8

97.5

97.5

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

6-0

8-0

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

3-3

4-4

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

2-1

6-1

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

0-4

3-5

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

2-3

4-4

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

1-2

4-3

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

3-2

5-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

3-2

5-3

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

3-2

4-4

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

2-3

4-4

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

2-2

5-3

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

3-2

5-3

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

4-0

7-0

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

2-2

5-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

2-3

5-3

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

2-2

4-3

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

1-3

3-4

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

1-4

3-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

5-0

8-0

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

3-2

6-2

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

2-3

4-4

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

3-2

6-2

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

1-4

3-5

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

0-5

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

3-2

6-2

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

5-0

8-0

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

0-5

1-6

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

1-4

2-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

2-3

4-4

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

2-3

4-4

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

3-1

5-3

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

2-2

3-5

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

4-1

5-3

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

3-1

5-3

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

2-3

4-4

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

1-3

3-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

0-4

1-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

3-1

6-1

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

2-2

3-5

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

0-4

0-8

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

0-4

1-6

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

x

5-2

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

3-4

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

x

3-5

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

x

5-3

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

x

0-8

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

x

1-7

Indep. Averages

89.3

89.8

88.9

89.3

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

1-3

2-6

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

0-4

0-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

3-2

5-4

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

2-2

3-5

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

3-1

4-4

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

2-2

5-3

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

1-3

4-4

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

3-2

5-4

MAC Averages

87.2

87.0

87.5

87.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

3-0

6-1

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

4-1

6-2

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

3-1

4-3

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

3-1

6-2

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

2-2

3-5

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

4-1

7-1

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

2-2

5-3

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

1-2

3-4

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

1-3

4-4

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

1-3

4-4

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

1-4

2-6

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

5-0

7-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

1-4

4-4

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

3-3

4-4

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

4-1

7-1

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

4-1

5-3

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

3-2

3-5

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

2-3

4-4

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

1-4

3-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.9

107.4

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

3-1

6-1

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

5-1

7-1

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

2-4

3-5

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

2-3

3-5

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

4-0

8-0

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

3-2

6-2

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

3-2

5-3

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

1-4

3-5

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

0-5

2-6

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

4-0

7-0

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

2-1

4-3

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

3-1

6-2

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

1-2

3-4

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

1-2

2-5

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.5

91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.1

5

Atlantic Coast

105.1

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.3

10

Mid-American

87.2

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Western Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Miami (O)]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Eastern Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Illiois

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Stanford

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia Tech

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Cincinnati

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Air Force]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Georgia

Penn St.

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Buffalo]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Duke]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

San Jose St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Notre Dame

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Indiana

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Wisconsin

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Hawaii

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

LSU

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

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