The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 20, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:43 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday

October 24

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Houston

SMU

-8.1

-7.1

-7.5

Friday

October 25

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Colorado

USC

-11.1

-12.2

-12.3

Saturday

October 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Massachusetts

Connecticut

-7.6

-9.3

-7.6

Purdue

Illinois

11.4

10.5

11.8

Army

San Jose St.

13.6

11.4

13.3

Georgia St.

Troy

-2.2

-1.3

-1.6

Clemson

Boston College

33.5

30.9

33.7

Tulsa

Memphis

-12.8

-12.0

-12.5

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

3.5

3.7

3.8

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

9.6

11.6

3.9

Temple

Central Florida

-7.0

-7.0

-6.7

Western Michigan

Bowling Green

25.8

24.9

25.5

Nebraska

Indiana

-2.1

0.0

-2.1

Buffalo

Central Michigan

5.9

5.6

6.0

Northwestern

Iowa

-9.7

-8.8

-10.7

East Carolina

South Florida

-2.0

-1.2

-2.0

Florida St.

Syracuse

3.0

3.9

3.4

Rutgers

Liberty

-2.4

-4.2

-3.9

Rice

Southern Miss.

-11.8

-8.8

-12.5

Utah

California

20.2

19.4

20.2

Wyoming

Nevada

12.9

13.5

13.7

Air Force

Utah St.

0.0

2.5

-0.1

New Mexico

Hawaii

-12.2

-10.6

-12.4

Marshall

Western Kentucky

2.8

1.2

2.1

Stanford

Arizona

7.6

6.7

7.1

Oregon

Washington St.

10.1

11.2

11.2

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

19.2

16.3

19.4

Kentucky

Missouri

-5.0

-4.0

-6.2

North Carolina

Duke

1.7

2.2

3.0

Michigan St.

Penn St.

-5.4

-5.3

-5.8

Kent St.

Miami (O)

2.2

3.7

2.5

South Alabama

Appalachian St.

-32.1

-28.5

-32.7

Georgia Southern

New Mexico St.

18.2

15.2

16.8

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.3

10.6

11.2

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

0.2

-0.8

0.1

Old Dominion

Florida Atlantic

-13.0

-12.1

-13.9

Ball St.

Ohio U

1.1

1.7

0.8

Alabama

Arkansas

43.1

39.2

44.5

Tennessee

South Carolina

-3.3

-2.0

-4.7

Kansas St.

Oklahoma

-14.6

-14.0

-14.8

Minnesota

Maryland

12.7

13.2

13.3

Navy

Tulane

-1.3

0.6

-1.2

TCU

Texas

-4.5

-2.0

-4.4

Pittsburgh

Miami (Fla.)

4.8

5.4

4.4

Louisville

Virginia

-8.1

-8.7

-8.5

Northern Illinois

Akron

22.3

21.0

23.4

Kansas

Texas Tech

-7.7

-6.7

-6.8

Charlotte

North Texas

-5.1

-4.1

-5.6

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

18.7

18.0

19.8

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

8.8

8.0

8.7

LSU

Auburn

9.0

8.4

9.4

UTEP

Louisiana Tech

-23.1

-18.4

-22.6

Michigan

Notre Dame

1.5

1.4

1.6

UCLA

Arizona St.

-6.2

-5.7

-7.7

UNLV

San Diego St.

-11.6

-12.1

-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

2

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

3

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

5

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

6

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

7

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

8

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

9

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

10

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

11

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

12

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

13

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

14

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

15

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

16

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

17

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

19

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

20

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

21

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

22

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

23

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

24

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

25

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

26

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

27

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

28

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

29

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

30

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

31

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

32

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

33

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

34

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

35

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

36

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

37

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

38

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

39

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

40

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

41

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

42

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

43

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

44

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

45

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

46

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

47

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

49

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

50

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

51

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

52

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

53

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

54

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

55

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

56

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

57

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

58

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

59

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

60

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

61

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

62

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

63

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

64

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

65

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

66

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

67

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

68

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

69

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

70

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

71

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

72

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

73

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

74

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

75

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

76

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

77

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

78

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

79

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

80

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

81

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

82

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

83

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

85

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

86

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

87

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

88

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

89

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

90

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

91

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

92

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

93

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

94

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

95

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

96

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

97

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

98

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

99

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

100

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

101

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

102

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

103

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

104

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

105

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

106

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

107

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

108

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

109

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

110

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

111

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

112

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

113

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

114

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

115

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

116

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

117

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

118

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

119

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

120

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

121

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

123

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

125

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

126

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

127

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

128

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

129

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

130

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

2-1

5-2

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

3-0

6-1

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

1-2

3-4

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

0-3

3-4

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

0-4

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

3-0

7-0

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

2-1

6-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

2-1

5-2

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

1-2

3-4

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

3-1

5-1

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

0-3

2-5

AAC Averages

96.7

97.4

97.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

5-0

7-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

2-3

3-4

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

0-3

3-4

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

2-1

6-1

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

2-2

4-3

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

1-2

4-3

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

2-2

4-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

3-1

5-2

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

2-1

5-2

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

2-2

3-4

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

2-2

4-3

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

1-3

3-4

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

4-0

7-0

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

3-1

5-2

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

4-0

7-0

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

3-1

5-2

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

1-3

4-3

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

1-2

4-2

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

1-2

3-3

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

1-3

3-4

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

1-3

3-4

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

0-4

2-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

4-0

7-0

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

4-0

7-0

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

3-2

5-2

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

2-2

4-3

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

2-2

5-2

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

1-3

3-4

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

0-5

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

3-1

6-1

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

2-2

5-2

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

4-0

7-0

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

1-3

2-5

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

0-4

1-5

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

2-2

4-3

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

1-3

3-4

Big Ten Averages

111.3

110.6

110.9

110.9

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

2-1

4-3

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

4-0

5-2

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

2-2

4-3

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

2-1

4-3

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

1-2

2-5

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

0-3

2-5

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

0-3

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

3-0

6-1

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

2-1

4-3

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

2-1

3-4

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

3-1

6-1

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

0-3

0-7

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

0-3

1-5

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

x

5-1

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

x

3-4

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

x

3-4

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

x

5-2

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

x

0-7

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

x

1-6

Indep. Averages

90.9

91.5

90.6

91.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

2-1

3-4

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

1-2

3-4

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

2-1

3-4

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

2-1

3-4

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

1-2

2-5

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

0-3

0-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

2-2

4-4

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

1-2

2-5

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

3-0

4-3

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

1-2

4-3

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

1-2

4-3

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

3-1

5-3

MAC Averages

87.3

87.1

87.6

87.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

3-0

6-1

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

3-0

4-2

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

3-1

5-2

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

2-1

5-2

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

1-2

2-5

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

0-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

1-1

3-3

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

3-1

6-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

1-2

4-3

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

1-2

4-3

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

1-3

3-4

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

1-3

2-5

MWC Averages

93.6

95.1

93.6

94.1

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

4-0

6-1

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

1-3

4-3

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

1-3

4-3

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

2-3

3-4

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

3-1

6-1

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

3-1

4-3

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

2-2

5-2

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

2-2

4-3

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

2-2

2-5

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

1-3

3-4

Pac-12 Averages

107.0

106.8

107.3

107.0

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

3-1

6-1

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

5-1

7-1

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

2-1

5-2

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

2-3

3-4

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

1-3

2-5

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

1-4

3-4

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

4-0

7-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

3-0

7-0

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

3-1

6-1

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

2-2

4-3

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

1-3

3-4

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

0-4

2-5

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

3-0

6-0

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

1-1

3-3

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

2-1

3-3

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

2-1

5-2

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

1-2

3-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

1-1

2-4

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

0-3

1-6

SBC Averages

90.7

91.3

90.2

90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

110.9

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.0

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.1

7

Mountain West

94.1

8

Independents

91.0

9

Sun Belt

90.7

10

Mid-American

87.3

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Central Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Toledo]

Cure

AAC

SBC

East Carolina

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Ball St.

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[UAB]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Duke

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Purdue

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

Arizona

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Pittsburgh

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Penn St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Hawaii]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Wyoming]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

USC

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Georgia

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Michigan St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

LSU

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Troy]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Nebraska

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Western Ky.]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

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