The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 17-21, 2019

Hooray, Hooray!  Maybe our little ditty we recited at the beginning of last week’s picks really worked!  That ditty went this way, “Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!”  It has to do with a childhood saying, and it worked then and apparently worked last week.

Both our PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks won.  The PiRate Picks enjoyed a windfall weekend with big wins.  Another 6 or 7 weeks in a row just like this, and we might even get back to level in our imaginary bank accounts.

While we have been trying to issue our money line parlay picks on Friday, we have a Thursday night game that is included in our selections, we have to issue those picks today as well.

Remember, the PiRates never wager real money on the outcomes of these games, and we also remind you that you frequently get what you pay for, and this is totally free.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers, 3 Game Parlays

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Arkansas St.

17

Arkansas St.

Ohio

Kent St.

17.5

Kent St.

Utah St.

Nevada

31

Nevada

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

California

Oregon St.

21

Oregon St.

Washington

Oregon

7

Oregon

South Carolina

Florida

15.5

Florida

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

9

Southern Miss.

Auburn

Arkansas

29

Arkansas

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

13.5

North Carolina

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Iowa St.

Texas Tech

17

Texas Tech

Rice

UTSA

14.5

UTSA

SMU

Temple

17.5

Temple

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

7

Kansas City

N.Y. Giants

Arizona

13

Arizona

Houston

Indianapolis

10

Indianapolis

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Detroit

11

Detroit

Green Bay

Oakland

15.5

Oakland

LA Rams

Atlanta

13

Atlanta

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Seattle

Baltimore

13

Baltimore

Philadelphia

Dallas

7

Dallas

New England

N.Y. Jets

20.5

N.Y. Jets

 

 

Money Line Parlays

 

All 3-game parlays 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Oregon

Washington

Penn St.

Michigan

+188

Western Ky.

Charlotte

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

Western Mich.

Eastern Mich.

+193

Boise St.

BYU

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Stanford

UCLA

Florida

South Carolina

+224

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Margins Plays

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Kent St.

Ohio

+7.5

Boise St.

BYU

-6.5

Oregon

Washington

-2.5

Florida

South Carolina

-4.5

North Carolina

Va Tech

-3

Hawaii

AFA

+3

Houston

Indianapolis

+1

Oakland

Green Bay

+5.5

Washington

San Francisco

+10.5

LA Chargers

Tennessee

+2.5

 

Totals Plays

 

Team

Team

Total

Pick

UCLA

Stanford

52.5

Under

Georgia Tech

Miami (Fla.)

46

Under

Florida St.

Wake Forest

69

Under

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

57

Under

Tennessee

LA Chargers

40

Under

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4 Comments

  1. Thanks! FYI, Broncos are the underdog tonight

    Comment by R T — October 17, 2019 @ 6:34 am

    • The Broncos are underdogs in the regular spread, but if you look at our imaginary wager play, this is a 10-point teaser parlay. In case you are not familiar with how teasers work, it allows you to move the point spread in either direction by the number of points you play on your teaser. So, if we are playing a 10-point teaser, we can move the line by 10 points in the direction we want and then wager on the new line. Of course, the payout odds change when doing this, and in order to lower the odds into playable form, you must put multiple games on a parlay. All games in the parlay must cover the new teased spread. KC was a 3-point favorite at the time we issued this parlay, so moving the point spread by 10 points, it made Denver a 7-point favorite, in which we then took the Chiefs at +7.

      Teasers are just that–you get teased into believing you can win them easily and break Vegas. Unfortunately, it is a lot harder than it looks. You can gain a slight advantage by knowing which margins of victory are most prevalent in both college and pro football (they are different). Crossing three of these high percentage margin numbers is a gift. You can also get a gift of an extra half-point by teasing from 10 1/2 to 1/2 point, where it is the same as teasing to a pick. Making a 2 1/2 point favorite into a 7 1/2 point underdog is really nice as well, and making a 4 1/2 point underdog into a 14 1/2 point underdog is sublime. As you can see, the numbers are more important than the names on the front of the jerseys.

      Comment by piratings — October 17, 2019 @ 9:08 am

  2. Hey Gents – Any insight you could share in regards to changes for Stanford if their #3 qb West plays rather than Mills (Costello confirmed out)? “Market” has driven the line down from -9 to -4, curious as to the adjustment (if any) that y’all would make?

    Cheers from the rainy PNW.

    Comment by Ryan — October 17, 2019 @ 7:47 am

    • We have the injury situation of both teams factored into this game, as UCLA QB Dorrian Thompson-Robinson is also injured (likely to play at less than 100%). Truth be told, we are more concerned with Stanford’s heavily depleted offensive line than Costello and Mills being unavailable, because the Bruins’ defensive line is vulnerable at the point of attack.

      We believe the smart play in this game is the Under for obvious reasons plus the fact that by mid-season, conference games tend to go Under more than Over. We did not make a play with Stanford on the margin, because this game could be one of those 17-14 games. Instead, we took the Money Line option as part of a parlay more because of the way it moved this parlay to incredible odds if it wins. These odds mean if you win them 1/3 of the time, you make a profit.

      Comment by piratings — October 17, 2019 @ 9:15 am


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