The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 13, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Wednesday

October 16

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Troy

South Alabama

22.4

19.7

21.9

Thursday

October 17

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas St.

Louisiana

-6.5

-6.3

-6.5

Stanford

UCLA

12.6

12.2

13.5

Friday

October 18

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida Atlantic

Marshall

6.7

6.8

6.9

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

2.8

2.4

2.5

Northwestern

Ohio St.

-24.8

-24.4

-26.8

Fresno St.

UNLV

15.2

14.2

15.8

Saturday

October 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia

Duke

2.0

2.7

2.0

Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Tech

15.9

16.8

16.4

Louisville

Clemson

-31.4

-28.6

-32.2

Georgia St.

Army

-6.7

-5.2

-6.6

Akron

Buffalo

-13.5

-13.7

-15.5

Maryland

Indiana

-0.6

0.3

-0.8

Connecticut

Houston

-24.5

-21.6

-28.3

Wake Forest

Florida St.

1.5

0.8

1.7

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

10.7

8.9

10.5

Bowling Green

Central Michigan

-7.3

-8.2

-8.0

Central Florida

East Carolina

31.5

28.7

32.5

Cincinnati

Tulsa

21.7

19.8

21.7

Boston College

North Carolina St.

2.1

2.2

2.2

Iowa

Purdue

14.5

12.8

15.1

Ohio

Kent St.

7.2

6.2

7.1

Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan

-10.3

-9.1

-10.0

Texas

Kansas

22.5

21.6

23.0

Illinois

Wisconsin

-25.1

-23.9

-26.2

Utah St.

Nevada

19.8

16.8

21.4

BYU

Boise St.

-6.1

-6.0

-7.0

Wyoming

New Mexico

21.2

20.4

22.7

Utah

Arizona St.

16.0

15.3

15.6

Ball St.

Toledo

0.2

-0.5

-0.3

Miami (O)

Northern Illinois

-1.8

-2.6

-2.1

California

Oregon St.

13.6

12.2

15.3

Washington

Oregon

-1.4

-2.0

-1.7

USC

Arizona

10.3

10.9

10.7

Washington St.

Colorado

16.1

15.4

16.5

South Carolina

Florida

-5.4

-4.1

-4.9

Georgia

Kentucky

23.6

23.4

25.6

Kansas St.

TCU

5.8

2.5

5.2

Mississippi St.

LSU

-14.3

-15.7

-9.1

Alabama

Tennessee

32.0

29.1

34.3

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

-0.9

0.6

-1.1

UAB

Old Dominion

12.9

14.3

13.5

Oklahoma

West Virginia

24.3

23.9

24.6

Oklahoma St.

Baylor

0.9

1.3

1.1

Arkansas

Auburn

-20.7

-18.1

-20.7

Ole Miss

Texas A&M

-8.8

-7.7

-7.4

Memphis

Tulane

5.3

4.2

5.0

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

-2.3

-2.2

-3.1

Rutgers

Minnesota

-25.0

-25.1

-25.3

Texas Tech

Iowa St.

-6.7

-7.0

-7.7

Navy

South Florida

5.2

6.8

5.3

Appalachian St.

Louisiana-Monroe

20.2

18.1

19.8

Vanderbilt

Missouri

-18.8

-17.6

-20.5

San Jose St.

San Diego St.

-10.4

-10.1

-10.8

Western Kentucky

Charlotte

8.0

8.5

9.5

North Texas

Middle Tennessee

4.8

5.3

5.7

UTSA

Rice

-3.9

-2.9

-3.5

SMU

Temple

5.6

6.3

5.6

Florida Int’l.

UTEP

27.8

22.9

27.5

Penn St.

Michigan

6.4

7.2

6.5

Hawaii

Air Force

4.0

4.0

2.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note:  We receive a lot of emails at our sister site asking us how X can be rated ahead of Y when Y beat X in September.  These are not rankings; they are ratings.  They are predictive in nature and not mean to rank the teams based on what they have done earlier in the season.  These ratings try to forecast the next week of games only.  

 

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

135.3

134.2

136.2

135.2

2

Alabama

135.8

132.5

136.5

134.9

3

Clemson

132.2

129.3

132.9

131.5

4

L S U

128.4

126.1

128.0

127.5

5

Georgia

126.7

124.9

126.9

126.2

6

Wisconsin

124.2

123.9

124.4

124.2

7

Oklahoma

124.4

123.6

124.1

124.0

8

Penn St.

122.5

121.6

122.6

122.3

9

Utah

121.5

120.2

122.0

121.2

10

Florida

122.4

119.4

121.8

121.2

11

Auburn

121.5

119.6

121.1

120.7

12

Notre Dame

120.2

118.5

120.1

119.6

13

Oregon

118.7

118.8

120.0

119.2

14

Michigan

119.1

117.4

119.2

118.6

15

Iowa

118.0

116.1

118.0

117.3

16

Iowa St.

115.7

116.3

115.9

116.0

17

Texas A&M

116.8

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Missouri

116.4

114.0

116.5

115.6

19

Washington

114.2

113.9

115.3

114.5

20

Michigan St.

114.0

113.2

113.7

113.6

21

Texas

113.3

113.5

113.7

113.5

22

South Carolina

113.9

112.3

113.9

113.4

23

Minnesota

112.4

112.0

111.7

112.0

24

Baylor

112.1

112.2

111.5

111.9

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.6

112.4

111.5

26

Mississipppi St.

111.1

107.4

116.0

111.5

27

Washington St.

110.5

109.5

110.6

110.2

28

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.6

110.0

29

Cincinnati

109.0

107.8

109.8

108.9

30

Arizona St.

108.5

107.9

109.4

108.6

31

U S C

108.1

108.8

108.6

108.5

32

Kansas St.

108.2

107.8

107.8

107.9

33

Boise St.

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.6

34

Indiana

108.3

106.8

107.5

107.5

35

Duke

107.7

107.1

107.6

107.5

36

Northwestern

107.5

106.7

106.5

106.9

37

Virginia

106.7

106.8

106.6

106.7

38

Miami (Fla.)

106.4

105.7

107.2

106.4

39

California

106.2

105.9

107.2

106.4

40

T C U

105.3

108.3

105.6

106.4

41

North Carolina

106.0

106.0

107.2

106.4

42

Purdue

106.5

106.3

105.8

106.2

43

Tennessee

106.8

106.4

105.2

106.1

44

Stanford

106.4

105.6

106.2

106.1

45

Texas Tech

106.0

106.3

105.3

105.9

46

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.5

105.9

105.7

47

SMU

105.1

104.9

106.2

105.4

48

Appalachian St.

105.9

104.7

105.5

105.4

49

Syracuse

105.6

105.0

105.4

105.3

50

Kentucky

106.0

104.5

104.3

104.9

51

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.9

104.7

52

Memphis

104.6

104.4

105.1

104.7

53

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

54

Utah St.

104.6

103.4

105.6

104.5

55

Maryland

104.7

104.1

103.7

104.2

56

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

57

Nebraska

103.1

103.9

102.5

103.2

58

Tulane

102.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

59

West Virginia

103.2

102.7

102.5

102.8

60

Temple

102.4

101.7

103.6

102.6

61

North Carolina St.

101.3

101.1

101.6

101.3

62

Arizona

100.8

100.9

100.9

100.9

63

Virginia Tech

100.7

100.8

101.1

100.9

64

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.8

100.5

65

Louisiana

99.8

99.8

99.5

99.7

66

Air Force

98.9

100.3

99.7

99.6

67

Houston

98.0

98.8

100.3

99.0

68

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

69

Hawaii

98.4

99.8

97.7

98.6

70

Wyoming

97.7

99.8

98.2

98.6

71

Western Michigan

98.8

97.7

98.7

98.4

72

BYU

98.4

98.3

98.1

98.3

73

Fresno St.

97.7

98.3

98.0

98.0

74

Arkansas

97.8

98.5

97.3

97.9

75

Louisville

97.9

97.8

97.7

97.8

76

Army

97.4

97.3

96.8

97.2

77

Colorado

97.4

97.1

97.1

97.2

78

U C L A

96.7

96.4

95.7

96.3

79

Illinois

96.1

96.9

95.1

96.1

80

Oregon St.

95.7

96.7

94.9

95.8

81

Southern Miss.

95.8

94.2

96.1

95.4

82

Kansas

93.9

94.9

93.7

94.2

83

Vanderbilt

95.1

93.8

93.5

94.1

84

Navy

93.0

95.6

93.5

94.1

85

Troy

94.2

94.4

93.1

93.9

86

Georgia Southern

94.1

93.5

93.2

93.6

87

Florida Atlantic

93.0

92.6

94.1

93.2

88

Georgia Tech

93.5

91.8

93.8

93.0

89

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

90

Florida Int’l.

92.5

92.4

92.9

92.6

91

Louisiana Tech

92.4

92.4

92.5

92.4

92

Northern Illinois

92.5

91.6

92.8

92.3

93

Toledo

91.3

91.6

92.0

91.6

94

North Texas

91.3

90.7

92.0

91.3

95

South Florida

90.8

91.8

91.2

91.3

96

Tulsa

90.3

91.1

91.1

90.8

97

Arkansas St.

90.8

91.0

90.5

90.8

98

Western Kentucky

89.8

90.9

91.5

90.7

99

Marshall

89.3

88.8

90.2

89.4

100

Buffalo

88.9

89.3

89.9

89.3

101

Liberty

88.8

90.1

89.1

89.3

102

U A B

88.3

90.2

89.1

89.2

103

Ball St.

89.0

88.6

89.1

88.9

104

Middle Tennessee

89.0

87.9

88.9

88.6

105

Louisiana-Monroe

88.2

89.1

88.2

88.5

106

Georgia St.

88.2

89.6

87.7

88.5

107

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

108

Nevada

87.8

89.5

87.2

88.2

109

Miami (Ohio)

88.2

86.5

88.2

87.6

110

Eastern Michigan

85.9

86.1

86.2

86.1

111

Coastal Carolina

86.0

87.1

85.2

86.1

112

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

113

U N L V

85.5

87.1

85.2

85.9

114

Central Michigan

84.8

85.6

85.7

85.3

115

Charlotte

84.4

84.8

84.5

84.6

116

Rutgers

84.9

84.5

83.9

84.4

117

Colorado St.

82.5

86.3

82.8

83.9

118

East Carolina

83.0

84.9

82.9

83.6

119

Texas St.

83.2

84.0

82.8

83.3

120

Rice

80.5

81.9

79.9

80.8

121

New Mexico

79.6

82.4

78.4

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

78.0

80.4

78.3

78.9

123

Old Dominion

78.0

78.4

78.1

78.2

124

South Alabama

74.3

77.2

73.6

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.9

74.8

75.1

75.0

126

Texas-San Antonio

74.2

76.5

73.9

74.8

127

Akron

72.9

73.1

71.9

72.6

128

Connecticut

71.0

74.6

69.5

71.7

129

U T E P

67.3

72.1

67.9

69.1

130

Massachusetts

62.1

63.9

61.0

62.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.6

112.4

111.5

1-1

4-2

Cincinnati

109.0

107.8

109.8

108.9

2-0

5-1

Temple

102.4

101.7

103.6

102.6

2-0

5-1

South Florida

90.8

91.8

91.2

91.3

1-1

3-3

East Carolina

83.0

84.9

82.9

83.6

0-2

3-3

Connecticut

71.0

74.6

69.5

71.7

0-3

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

105.1

104.9

106.2

105.4

2-0

6-0

Memphis

104.6

104.4

105.1

104.7

1-1

5-1

Tulane

102.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

2-0

5-1

Houston

98.0

98.8

100.3

99.0

0-2

2-4

Navy

93.0

95.6

93.5

94.1

2-1

4-1

Tulsa

90.3

91.1

91.1

90.8

0-2

2-4

AAC Averages

96.7

97.5

97.4

97.2

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.2

129.3

132.9

131.5

4-0

6-0

Syracuse

105.6

105.0

105.4

105.3

0-2

3-3

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

2-2

3-3

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

1-1

5-1

North Carolina St.

101.3

101.1

101.6

101.3

1-1

4-2

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.8

100.5

1-2

3-3

Louisville

97.9

97.8

97.7

97.8

2-1

4-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Duke

107.7

107.1

107.6

107.5

2-1

4-2

Virginia

106.7

106.8

106.6

106.7

2-1

4-2

Miami (Fla.)

106.4

105.7

107.2

106.4

1-2

3-3

North Carolina

106.0

106.0

107.2

106.4

2-1

3-3

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.5

105.9

105.7

1-1

4-2

Virginia Tech

100.7

100.8

101.1

100.9

2-2

4-2

Georgia Tech

93.5

91.8

93.8

93.0

0-3

1-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.4

123.6

124.1

124.0

3-0

6-0

Iowa St.

115.7

116.3

115.9

116.0

2-1

4-2

Texas

113.3

113.5

113.7

113.5

2-1

4-2

Baylor

112.1

112.2

111.5

111.9

3-0

6-0

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.6

110.0

1-2

4-2

Kansas St.

108.2

107.8

107.8

107.9

0-2

3-2

T C U

105.3

108.3

105.6

106.4

1-1

3-2

Texas Tech

106.0

106.3

105.3

105.9

1-2

3-3

West Virginia

103.2

102.7

102.5

102.8

1-2

3-3

Kansas

93.9

94.9

93.7

94.2

0-3

2-4

Big 12 Averages

109.2

109.6

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

135.3

134.2

136.2

135.2

3-0

6-0

Penn St.

122.5

121.6

122.6

122.3

3-0

6-0

Michigan

119.1

117.4

119.2

118.6

3-1

5-1

Michigan St.

114.0

113.2

113.7

113.6

2-2

4-3

Indiana

108.3

106.8

107.5

107.5

1-2

4-2

Maryland

104.7

104.1

103.7

104.2

1-2

3-3

Rutgers

84.9

84.5

83.9

84.4

0-4

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

124.2

123.9

124.4

124.2

3-0

6-0

Iowa

118.0

116.1

118.0

117.3

1-2

4-2

Minnesota

112.4

112.0

111.7

112.0

3-0

6-0

Northwestern

107.5

106.7

106.5

106.9

0-3

1-4

Purdue

106.5

106.3

105.8

106.2

1-2

2-4

Nebraska

103.1

103.9

102.5

103.2

2-2

4-3

Illinois

96.1

96.9

95.1

96.1

0-3

2-4

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.5

110.8

110.8

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

93.0

92.6

94.1

93.2

2-0

4-2

Florida Int’l.

92.5

92.4

92.9

92.6

1-2

3-3

Western Kentucky

89.8

90.9

91.5

90.7

3-0

4-2

Marshall

89.3

88.8

90.2

89.4

1-1

3-3

Middle Tennessee

89.0

87.9

88.9

88.6

1-1

2-4

Charlotte

84.4

84.8

84.5

84.6

0-2

2-4

Old Dominion

78.0

78.4

78.1

78.2

0-2

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

95.8

94.2

96.1

95.4

2-0

4-2

Louisiana Tech

92.4

92.4

92.5

92.4

2-0

5-1

North Texas

91.3

90.7

92.0

91.3

1-1

2-4

U A B

88.3

90.2

89.1

89.2

2-1

5-1

Rice

80.5

81.9

79.9

80.8

0-2

0-6

Texas-San Antonio

74.2

76.5

73.9

74.8

1-2

2-4

U T E P

67.3

72.1

67.9

69.1

0-2

1-4

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.5

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.2

118.5

120.1

119.6

x

5-1

BYU

98.4

98.3

98.1

98.3

x

2-4

Army

97.4

97.3

96.8

97.2

x

3-3

Liberty

88.8

90.1

89.1

89.3

x

4-2

New Mexico St.

78.0

80.4

78.3

78.9

x

0-7

Massachusetts

62.1

63.9

61.0

62.3

x

1-6

Indep. Averages

90.8

91.4

90.6

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

1-1

2-4

Buffalo

88.9

89.3

89.9

89.3

0-2

2-4

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

2-0

3-3

Miami (Ohio)

88.2

86.5

88.2

87.6

1-1

2-4

Bowling Green

74.9

74.8

75.1

75.0

1-1

2-4

Akron

72.9

73.1

71.9

72.6

0-2

0-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.7

98.7

98.4

2-1

4-3

Northern Illinois

92.5

91.6

92.8

92.3

1-1

2-4

Toledo

91.3

91.6

92.0

91.6

1-1

4-2

Ball St.

89.0

88.6

89.1

88.9

2-0

3-3

Eastern Michigan

85.9

86.1

86.2

86.1

0-2

3-3

Central Michigan

84.8

85.6

85.7

85.3

2-1

4-3

MAC Averages

87.4

87.1

87.6

87.4

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.6

3-0

6-0

Utah St.

104.6

103.4

105.6

104.5

2-0

3-2

Air Force

98.9

100.3

99.7

99.6

2-1

4-2

Wyoming

97.7

99.8

98.2

98.6

1-1

4-2

Colorado St.

82.5

86.3

82.8

83.9

1-2

2-5

New Mexico

79.6

82.4

78.4

80.2

0-2

2-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

2-1

5-1

Hawaii

98.4

99.8

97.7

98.6

1-1

4-2

Fresno St.

97.7

98.3

98.0

98.0

0-1

2-3

Nevada

87.8

89.5

87.2

88.2

1-1

4-2

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

1-2

3-3

U N L V

85.5

87.1

85.2

85.9

1-2

2-4

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.7

118.8

120.0

119.2

3-0

5-1

Washington

114.2

113.9

115.3

114.5

2-2

5-2

Washington St.

110.5

109.5

110.6

110.2

0-3

3-3

California

106.2

105.9

107.2

106.4

1-2

4-2

Stanford

106.4

105.6

106.2

106.1

2-2

3-3

Oregon St.

95.7

96.7

94.9

95.8

1-2

2-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.5

120.2

122.0

121.2

2-1

5-1

Arizona St.

108.5

107.9

109.4

108.6

2-1

5-1

U S C

108.1

108.8

108.6

108.5

2-1

3-3

Arizona

100.8

100.9

100.9

100.9

2-1

4-2

Colorado

97.4

97.1

97.1

97.2

1-2

3-3

U C L A

96.7

96.4

95.7

96.3

1-2

1-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.8

107.3

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.9

126.9

126.2

2-1

5-1

Florida

122.4

119.4

121.8

121.2

4-1

6-1

Missouri

116.4

114.0

116.5

115.6

2-0

5-1

South Carolina

113.9

112.3

113.9

113.4

2-2

3-3

Tennessee

106.8

106.4

105.2

106.1

1-2

2-4

Kentucky

106.0

104.5

104.3

104.9

1-3

3-3

Vanderbilt

95.1

93.8

93.5

94.1

0-3

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

132.5

136.5

134.9

3-0

6-0

L S U

128.4

126.1

128.0

127.5

2-0

6-0

Auburn

121.5

119.6

121.1

120.7

2-1

5-1

Texas A&M

116.8

115.0

115.3

115.7

1-2

3-3

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.4

116.0

111.5

1-2

3-3

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.9

104.7

2-2

3-4

Arkansas

97.8

98.5

97.3

97.9

0-3

2-4

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.4

113.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.9

104.7

105.5

105.4

2-0

5-0

Troy

94.2

94.4

93.1

93.9

0-1

2-3

Georgia Southern

94.1

93.5

93.2

93.6

1-1

2-3

Georgia St.

88.2

89.6

87.7

88.5

2-1

4-2

Coastal Carolina

86.0

87.1

85.2

86.1

0-2

3-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

99.8

99.8

99.5

99.7

1-1

4-2

Arkansas St.

90.8

91.0

90.5

90.8

1-1

3-3

Louisiana-Monroe

88.2

89.1

88.2

88.5

2-0

3-3

Texas St.

83.2

84.0

82.8

83.3

1-1

2-4

South Alabama

74.3

77.2

73.6

75.1

0-2

1-5

SBC Averages

90.5

91.0

89.9

90.5

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.9

2

BTen

110.8

3

B12

109.3

4

P12

107.1

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

97.2

7

MWC

94.2

8

Ind

90.9

9

SUN

90.5

10

MAC

87.4

11

CUSA

86.5

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

SMU

3

Cincinnati

4

Appalachian St.

5

Temple

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Ball St.

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Navy

[North Texas]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Central Florida

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Marshall

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Western Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Troy

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Arizona

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Memphis

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

Hawaii

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Louisville

[Buffalo]

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina St.

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

North Carolina

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Minnesota

Boise St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Louisiana Tech

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Purdue

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Georgia Southern]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Pittsburgh

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

USC

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[California]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia St.

Utah St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

South Carolina

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Kent St.

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Florida Int’l.]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Louisiana

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Oklahoma

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Reverse Engineering the NCAA Playoffs

Here is our best estimate as to which teams would have qualified for the Playoffs in the years before there were playoffs.  This covers the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present)

 

 

2013: Florida St., Auburn, Alabama, Michigan St.

Auburn and Alabama would have met in a rematch

 

2012: Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, Oregon

Ohio State was 12-0 but ineligible that year

 

2011: LSU, Alabama, Stanford, Oklahoma St.

Andrew Luck versus the Crimson Tide and Les Myles against his old team

 

2010: Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Wisconsin

3, 12-0 teams and a possible Andy Dalton vs. Cam Newton in the Championship Game

 

2009: Alabama, Texas, TCU, Boise St.

All four teams were 12-0.  Nick Saban’s only undefeated team may have been one of his weaker teams at Alabama.  

 

2008: Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, Utah

This is a year where an 8-team playoff would have been needed, as there were nine teams that could be considered playoff worthy.  Only Utah was undefeated, and the Utes slaughtered Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

 

2007: Ohio St., LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma

This would have been a difficult year for a Selection Committee with only three deserving teams.  Number four could have been Missouri, Georgia, or USC.

 

2006: Ohio St., Florida, Michigan, Louisville

Ohio State and Michigan were both 11-0 when they met in Columbus.  The Buckeyes’ home field advantage is historically between 3.5 and 4.5 points, and they only won this game by three.  Might Michigan have been a little better that year?  Florida and Michigan in a semifinal game might have set up a rematch of the bitter rivals.

 

2005: USC, Texas, Penn St., Oregon

This was definitely a year where only two teams were needed for playoffs.  It would have been ashamed if either USC or Texas had been upset in a semifinal game, robbing the nation of one of the best Championship Games ever.

 

2004: USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah

All four of these teams were 12-0 at the end of the regular season.  Auburn and Utah were won impressive bowl games, and this would have been one of the best playoff years ever.

 

2003: USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Michigan

The BCS folks got this one wrong by not taking USC that year, and the AP Poll voted USC the national champion over LSU.

 

2002: Miami, Ohio St., Iowa, Georgia

Ohio State and Iowa did not play each other that year, as this pre-dates the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

2001: Miami, Oregon, Nebraska, Illinois

This was another tough year, and it didn’t need a playoff at all, as Miami was clearly 7-10 points better than anybody else in the nation.  Illinois gets the nod over Maryland and Colorado.

 

2000: Oklahoma, Washington, Miami, Florida St.

This was a year where a 6-team tournament, adding Oregon State and Virginia Tech, would have been needed.  Washington was more deserving than Florida State that year.

 

1999: Florida St., Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Kansas St.

The two teams that played for the title were the only legitimate teams that should have played for a title that year.

 

1998: Tennessee, Ohio St., Florida St., Kansas St.

UCLA might have been the best team headed into the final weeks that year, but the Bruins made a mistake playing at Miami to close out the regular season.  They were not ready for the heat and humidity, or the Miami speed.  Ohio State was more deserving of the Championship Game bid than Florida State.

1997: Nebraska, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida St.

Peyton Manning versus Charles Woodson in a battle of the top two Heisman Trophy candidates.  Then, in all likelihood, it would have been Michigan and Nebraska in one of the best Championship Games never to be played.

1996: Florida St., Arizona St., Florida, Ohio St.

John Cooper had two teams that were probably the best in the land, but his Buckeyes always found a way to lay an egg at some point during the season.  This Buckeyes’ team probably would have beaten Florida St. in a semifinal game.

1995: Nebraska, Florida, Tennessee, Northwestern

Florida, Tennessee, and Northwestern could have combined their rosters and still lost to Nebraska by 14 points.  This was the most dominant team of the last 25 years.

1994: Nebraska, Penn St., Alabama, Miami

A 10-0-1 Texas A&M team was on probation that year.  Nebraska and Penn State would have been an incredible game had they played that year.  In those days, the Big Ten champion went to the Rose Bowl, and there was no guarantee that the top two teams would play each other.

1993: Nebraska, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Florida St.

An 11-0 Auburn team may have been the best in the nation that year, but the Tigers were on probation.  Notre Dame’s upset loss at Boston College kept the Irish out of the National Championship Game, allowing a Florida State team that ND beat to sneak in to the Orange Bowl.  The Irish were probably the best team that year.

1992: Alabama, Miami, Texas A&M, Florida St.

One wide field goal attempt against Miami was all that kept Florida State from going undefeated.  Had the ball been true, there would have been four teams with no losses.  It didn’t matter that year, as ‘Bama was clearly  the best team in the nation with the best defense in modern day football (Wisconsin has a chance to take that moniker away this year if they run the table and stop Ohio State’s offense).

1991: Washington, Miami, Florida, Michigan

Washington and Miami needed to meet for the national championship that year.  The PiRate Ratings had Washington rated about two points ahead of Miami that year.

1990: Georgia Tech, Colorado, Texas, Miami

This was one of the toughest years to pick any of the teams.  At 10-2, Miami was probably the best team that year, as they pasted Texas in the Cotton Bowl 46-3, committing more yards in penalties than Texas had in offense.  Miami’s defense would have shut down Georgia Tech in the semifinals, and none of the triple option teams ever had success against the Hurricane defenses of those times.  Colorado’s I-bone would have been shut down.

 

1989: Colorado, Miami, Notre Dame, Michigan

Colorado was the only undefeated team, but they may have been the weakest of these four teams.  A Notre Dame-Michigan title game would have been a good one that year.

 

1988: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Miami, Auburn

This was another tough year to come up with team number four, as five or six other teams could have slid into this spot.  A third-seeded Miami team would have swept both playoff games by double digit margins.  Miami’s only loss that year was at Notre Dame by one point on one of the worst blown calls ever made in a game with championship implications.  Facing 4th down and 7 at the Notre Dame 11 yard line, Hurricane quarterback Steve Walsh threw a pass to receiver Cleveland Gary inside the five yard line.  Gary caught the ball and stretched forward.  The ball hit the goalline before any other part of Gary’s body touched the ground.  Not only did the referees not award Miami a touchdown, they at first called a fumble that was recovered by Notre Dame, after the ball was dropped just after Gary pounded it on the goalline.  Then to make a second mistake, the referees said it wasn’t a fumble and then gave the ball to Notre Dame on downs, when Miami only needed to get to the four yard line.  Miami would have beaten Notre Dame in a rematch by 14-17 points that year.

I heard a funny quip on sports radio the Monday after that game.  The host said that the referees, O’Brien, O’Malley, O’Sullivan, Kelly, Murphy,  and Ryan, decided that the goalline can cause a fumble.

 

1987: Miami, Oklahoma, Florida St., Syracuse

This was another one of those wide right years for Florida State in a one-point loss to Miami.  These two rivals would have most likely played for the title that year.

 

1986: Miami, Penn St., Oklahoma, Michigan

This would have been an interesting playoff, especially the Miami-Michigan game.  Bo Schembechler’s defense would have given Vinny Testaverde similar fits to the one Penn State gave him in the real Championship Game.  It might have been Penn State and Michigan playing for the title.

 

1985: Penn St., Oklahoma, Iowa, Miami

Florida at 9-1-1 might have been the best team at the end of the year, but the Gators were on probation.  This would have been a fairly even season with three close playoff games.

 

1984: Washington, Oklahoma, South Carolina, BYU

Yes, BYU was the real national champion that year, but they won it only because this was a down year in the major conferences.  Washington would have quickly dismissed BYU in the semifinals, while Oklahoma would have edged South Carolina.  Florida was on probation for the first of two years and went 9-1-1.  The Gators were probably the best team in the nation by the end of November, slaughtering ranked Georgia, Auburn, and Florida State teams by a combined 78-20.

 

1983: Nebraska, Texas, Auburn, Illinois

The actual national champion Miami would not have been invited to the Playoffs that year.  Illinois beat three top 10 teams that year by a combined 66-19 score.  10-1 Auburn only lost to 11-0 Texas.  Nebraska might have had trouble facing Illinois’s passing game since the Cornhuskers did not face a passing offense like this in the Big 8.  Texas beat three top 10 teams during the season and held opponents to less than 10 points per game.  This should have been an interesting Playoff season.

 

1982: Georgia, Penn St., SMU, Nebraska

SMU wasn’t yet on probation, even though this team was the one with all the violations.  The Pony Express would have given Penn State a tough game, while Georgia and Nebraska should have been a close one as well.  Any of the four teams could have won the title.  Nebraska’s lone loss was at Penn State by a field goal.

 

1981: Clemson, Georgia, Pittsburgh, Alabama

The two best teams in the nation that year were Clemson and Pittsburgh.  The Panthers were cruising along as the number one team and had a 10-0 record when they hosted Penn State in the regular season finale.  After scoring two quick touchdowns to take a 14-0 lead on the Nittany Lions.  Pitt outgained Penn State by more than 140 yards in the first quarter, and it looked like this would be a blowout win for the top-rated team.  Then, Penn State woke up and went on a scoring tear like Army in the World War II years, scoring 48 points in the last three quarters on a Pitt team that had given up just 92 points in its first ten games.  Poor Dan Marino–always a bridesmaid and never a bride. 

 

1980: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Florida St., Baylor

Hershel Walker would have rolled over Baylor in the semifinals, setting up an interesting championship game against either Pitt or FSU.  

 

1979: Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Florida St.

All four of these teams went unbeaten (USC had a tie), and this would have been an interesting playoff for sure.  This Alabama team got through the year unscathed against a rather weak schedule.  USC was probably the best team in the nation that year.  The Trojans were stacked with talent.  Both Charles White and Marcus Allen were the featured backs out of the I-formation.  Paul McDonald was one of the best passing quarterbacks the Trojans had up to that time.  Brad Budde was the best offensive lineman in the nation that year.  The USC secondary might have been the best one in college football history with Ronnie Lott, Dennis Smith, Jeff Fisher, Herb Ward, and Joey Browner.

 

1978: USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Penn St.

Penn State was the only undefeated team that year, but their schedule included a lot of easy wins.  USC won at Alabama and were probably the best team in the nation that year.

 

1977: Texas, Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma

Actual National Champion Notre Dame would not have made the Playoffs in a year where at least eight if not 12 teams were worthy.  Michigan appeared to be the superior team in the land for the second consecutive year, but the Wolverines came up short for the second year in a row.  Alabama probably had the best team at the end of the regular season, and the Tide won at Number 1 USC earlier in the year.  

 

1976: Pittsburgh, Michigan, USC, Georgia

Johnny Majors had Tony Dorsett as his tailback, and TD was nearly unstoppable.  Throw in a stingy defense that intercepted a lot of passes and recovered a lot of fumbles, and the Panthers would have probably won this Playoffs with ease.  When on their game, Michigan was good enough to play on an even level with Pitt, but up to this point in his career, no Bo Schembechler-coached team had won its final game of the year.

 

1975: Ohio St., Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona St.

Ohio State was undefeated with Heisman Trophy running back Archie Griffin and bulldozer Pete Johnson both topping 1,000 yards rushing.  Unlike many of Woody Hayes’ teams, this one had a decent passing attack with Cornelius Greene passing to Brian Baschnagel.  The Buckeyes beat four ranked teams in the regular season by a combined 100-29 score.  However, by the end of November, Alabama was clearly the best team in the nation.  An early stumble to open the season at Missouri, a school that pulled off several major upsets during this era, pushed the Tide out to sea.  Bear’s boys were unstoppable after that loss.  Alabama gave up just 46 points after that loss in week one, winning 10 games with ease.  Washington coach Don James after losing to ‘Bama 52-0 said they were the best team he had ever seen as a coach or player.

 

1974: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC

Oklahoma was the clear cut best team in the nation, but the Sooners were on probation this year.  OU would have easily beaten any of these four teams that year.  These four that weren’t on probation would have played three close games with USC likely coming out on top.

 

 

1973: Notre Dame, Alabama, Penn St., Ohio St.

This was one of the most incredible years in college football history.  Left out in this equation is a 10-0-1 Michigan team that tied 9-0-1 Ohio State but lost their quarterback for the season in the Big Game.

This group of four could have played this tournament a dozen times and each team might have won it three times each.  Our PiRate Ratings had Ohio State the number one team after the bowls that year.

 

1972: USC, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio St.

This was a time when the “haves” had a lot more than the “have nots,” and thus as many as 10 teams had playoff-worthy resumes.  In the end, it really didn’t matter this season, because USC was the best team in the nation by at least a touchdown over Oklahoma and more than 10 points over anybody else.  This was the best West Coast team ever. It had two future NFL quarterbacks in Mike Rae and Pat Haden.  Fullback Sam “Bam” Cunnigham blocked for Anthony Davis, while a trio of star receivers, Lynn Swann, J.K. McKay, and Charles Young, forced defenses to play three and four deep in the secondary.

 

1971: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan

The 1971 Nebraska team ranks as the all-time best team in PiRate Ratings’ history (1969 to present).  The 1971 Oklahoma team ranks as one of the 10 best in PiRate Ratings’ history.  These two teams were so far ahead of the rest of the nation.  Oklahoma would have beaten Alabama by at least three touchdowns, while Nebraska would have likely beaten Michigan by a score like 31-0.  The rematch for the National Championship might have been the best one ever had there been Playoffs back then.

1970: Ohio St., Texas, Nebraska, Arizona St.

Arizona State didn’t get any respect in 1970, but this undefeated team might have been strong enough to knock off Ohio State.  The schedule was suspect, but if you look at the roster, it was stocked with future NFL players.  Notre Dame and Tennessee were equally qualified to make the Playoffs this year, and a Committee might have given the edge to the Fighting Irish with Joe Theismann at quarterback.

 

1969: Penn St., Texas, Arkansas, USC

This is the year that the PiRate Ratings were born (although not named the PiRate Ratings until 2001).  It was because so  many teams were really good this season that I started making ratings.   If ever a season needed a 12-team Playoff, this is the one.  A case could have been made for 16 teams that year.  

If you ask me, Penn State would have won the title had there been Playoffs.  This Nittany Lion defense and special teams were among the best ever, as they scored or set up more points than they allowed.  When your number two and number three running backs are future All-pros Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell, and when your starting quarterback went undefeated for his entire football career (Youth league to College), how can you deny this 11-0 team that finished the 1969 season riding a 22-game winning streak and 30 game unbeaten streak?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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