Welcome to the 2019-2020 College Football season on the SS Touchdown, your favorite PiRate ship of analytical merriment.
The PiRates have spent hours upon hours doing research this summer getting ready for another football season. 2018 was an incredible year for our ratings, as we finished at the top of the Prediction Tracker against the spread in college football, and the best against the spread and at picking winners in NFL football. We have seen a steady bump in additional readers, so we hope we can follow up with another great year.
Today, we begin previewing one NCAA FBS conference per day for the next 11 days. In past years, we published lengthy previews, but after hearing from a lot of you tell us that you come here for the stats, we are going to try to become the Sergeant Joe Friday of football, “Just the Stats.” Oh, we’ll throw in a little Joe Gannon and include something from out of left field when something warrants it.
We begin with Conference USA, the #11 rated conference to begin the PiRate Ratings season.
The Official Media Poll
| Conference USA Media Poll | ||
| East Division | ||
| Pos. | Team | 1st Place Votes |
| 1 | Marshall | 14 |
| 2 | Florida Int’l. | 9 |
| 3 | Florida Atlantic | 3 |
| 4 | Middle Tennessee | 0 |
| 5 | Western Kentucky | 0 |
| 6 | Old Dominion | 0 |
| 7 | Charlotte | 0 |
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| West Division | ||
| Pos. | Team | 1st Place Votes |
| 1 | North Texas | 20 |
| 2 | Southern Miss. | 4 |
| 3 | Louisiana Tech | 0 |
| 4 | UAB | 2 |
| 5 | UTSA | 0 |
| 6 | Rice | 0 |
| 7 | UTEP | 0 |
For some reason, Conference USA did not release the total vote count by the media. We only received the First Place Votes and position each team finished in the voting. Additionally, the media did not vote on an overall champion.
The PiRate Ratings
| Preseason PiRate Ratings–CUSA | ||||
| East Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Florida Int’l. | 93.6 | 93.7 | 94.4 | 93.9 |
| Marshall | 92.9 | 92.6 | 93.8 | 93.1 |
| Florida Atlantic | 91.7 | 91.1 | 92.4 | 91.7 |
| Middle Tennessee | 90.5 | 90.0 | 90.6 | 90.4 |
| Western Kentucky | 87.5 | 88.7 | 89.0 | 88.4 |
| Charlotte | 86.6 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 86.9 |
| Old Dominion | 75.1 | 76.0 | 75.1 | 75.4 |
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| West Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Southern Miss. | 93.4 | 92.2 | 93.7 | 93.1 |
| North Texas | 92.5 | 92.3 | 93.4 | 92.7 |
| Louisiana Tech | 90.7 | 90.8 | 90.8 | 90.7 |
| U A B | 88.2 | 89.1 | 88.7 | 88.7 |
| U T S A | 77.5 | 80.0 | 77.2 | 78.2 |
| Rice | 77.7 | 78.8 | 77.0 | 77.9 |
| U T E P | 67.9 | 72.6 | 68.3 | 69.6 |
| CUSA Averages | 86.1 | 86.8 | 86.5 | 86.5 |
Note: These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.
Predicted Won-Loss Records
The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt. Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams. For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.
If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.
What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings. These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%. Then, if the Captain didn’t like the result, he swung his sword and chose them by himself. Actually, the conference records had to be balanced, and all the half-win votes made it a mess, so it’s probably 100% his opinion.
| PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss | |||
| East Division | |||
| Pos | Team | CUSA | Overall |
| 1 | Florida Atlantic | 6-2 | 8-5 |
| 2 | Marshall | 6-2 | 9-3 |
| 3 | Florida Int’l. | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| 4 | Western Kentucky | 4-4 | 5-7 |
| 5 | Middle Tennessee | 4-4 | 5-7 |
| 6 | Charlotte | 3-5 | 5-7 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 1-7 | 2-10 |
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| West Division | |||
| Pos | Team | CUSA | Overall |
| 1 | Southern Miss. | 7-1 | 9-4* |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 6-2 | 9-3 |
| 3 | North Texas | 6-2 | 7-5 |
| 4 | UAB | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| 5 | UTSA | 2-6 | 3-9 |
| 6 | Rice | 1-7 | 1-11 |
| 7 | UTEP | 0-8 | 1-11 |
| * | Southern Miss. picked to win CUSA Championship | ||
Bowl Projections
| Bowl | Team |
| Bahamas | Southern Miss. |
| First Responder | Marshall |
| Gasparilla | Cincinnati |
| New Mexico | Louisiana Tech |
| New Orleans | UAB |
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| Alternate Bowl Teams | |
| Frisco | Florida Int’l |
| Independence | North Texas |
Coaches That Could Move To FBS Power Conference Schools
Seth Littrell–North Texas
Lane Kiffin–Florida Atlantic
Jay Hopson–Southern Miss.
Coaches on The Hot Seat
Dana Dimel–UTEP
Frank Wilson–UTSA
Bobby Wilder–Old Dominion
Top Quarterbacks
Mason Fine–North Texas
Tyler Johnson III–UAB
James Morgan–Florida Int’l.
Best Offense
North Texas
Florida Int’l.
Marshall
Best Defense
Marshall
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss.
Coming Tomorrow–The Mid-American Conference
The Pi-Rate Ratings 