Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Round of 32 for Saturday, March 23, 2019

Saturday, March 23, 2019  

Round of 32

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
LSU	58.68	3.4	36.9	70.0	15.3	17.7	10.2
Maryland	59.94	7.1	33.9	75.3	16.6	12.3	8.6

Maryland’s strength of schedule advantage is negligible.  LSU’s R+T advantage is also negligible.  Rebounding should be close to even, and it doesn’t appear like turnovers will decide this game.

It comes down to true shooting % margin, and Maryland’s is better by enough to move the needle into Terp territory.

Predicted Winner: Maryland but a close game

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.47	9.9	36.9	74.7	15.9	16.1	16.3
Wofford	52.40	8.2	32.8	76.3	13.6	18.1	13.5

Wofford looked great in the closing minutes of their blowout win over Seton Hall, just like they did when they closed out the SoCon Championship Game against UNC-Greensboro.  This will not repeat itself Saturday.  Kentucky might give the Terriers a dose of their own medicine, but it will more than likely come in the first half.  The Wildcats are too much out of Wofford’s class, and the SOS difference makes UK’s analytics much superior to Wofford’s.

Even with P. J. Washington still unavailable until next week at the earliest, Kentucky has too much muscle and quickness for the Terriers.  Wofford’s excellent inside-outside combination won’t be able to connect enough times.

Predicted Winner: Kentucky by double digits

 

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan	60.07	8.8	23.8	75.2	12.1	16.0	3.4
Florida	60.24	1.4	31.1	67.9	15.5	19.3	-1.0

Florida became one of the few teams with a negative R+T rating to advance to the Round of 32, and their R+T is still negative.  Michigan’s R+T is definitely a liability also, but at least it is positive.  The Wolverines has a far superior true shooting % margin, most of which is due to their top-rate defense, led by “defensive coordinator” Luke Yaklich.

Predicted Winner: Michigan by 5 to 12 points

 

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Florida St.	59.75	3.4	32.8	73.5	16.3	18.1	8.7
Murray St.	48.31	11.2	31.6	70.7	14.7	17.0	7.2

 

The popular pick is Ja Morant and the Racers, but the ACC was really tough at the top, and this data shows the Seminoles’ SOS looks insurmountable in this game.  The ‘Noles have a lot more muscle than Marquette, and they will be able to wear down Murray and control the boards while forcing the Racers into more second half mistakes.

Predicted Winner: Florida St. by 7 to 15

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	55.92	17.7	30.9	73.1	12.8	16.6	15.0
Baylor	58.64	1.5	37.8	71.4	16.6	16.2	9.0

Baylor’s SOS is a little better than Gonzaga, and the Bears should be able to get a couple extras offensive rebounds, but Gonzaga is too much better everywhere else.  A lot of people are picking the Bears to be the first team to send a #1-seed home, but in my opinion, Gonzaga has the best path to the Final Four of any #1-seed.

Predicted Winner: Gonzaga by double digits

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan St.	61.31	13.6	33.6	73.8	16.0	12.8	11.9
Minnesota	59.70	2.0	31.5	72.4	14.8	14.3	1.1

Never before have conference rivals met in the Round of 32, and this does alter our data a little bit, but not much.  In their previous meeting, Michigan State thoroughly destroyed Minnesota in a game in East Lansing.  The analytical data in that game was not that much off the norm, as Michigan State was expected to dominate the offensive glass and get better percentage shots.

The data has not changed much from that home game for Sparty.  It will be closer this time, but the outcome should still be the same.  MSU has huge R+T and True Shooting % Margin advantages here.  Minny might not be able to beat the Spartans more than one time in 10 games on a neutral floor.

Predicted Winner: Michigan St. by 10-15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Purdue	60.86	2.9	34.2	73.8	13.5	17.0	11.1
Villanova	58.03	5.1	30.5	72.9	14.2	15.3	3.2

 

The defending national champions may not make it to the Sweet 16.  Purdue isn’t that much slower than the Wildcats and much stronger.  The Boilermakers’ will eventually lose to a team with a superior TS Margin and enough muscle to make the board battle even, but I don’t think the Wildcats have the juice this year to be that team.

Predicted Winner: Purdue by 4 to 9 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kansas	62.70	6.1	29.7	72.0	16.0	15.6	2.7
Auburn	59.91	1.7	32.5	67.9	14.7	21.9	6.8

 

This will be an interesting game, and it should be a nail-biter unless one team just doesn’t have it and lays an egg.  I believe that if these teams play 10 times, it would be 5 to 5 in wins.  Kansas has the better TS% Margin, but not by that much.   The difference in this game is that Auburn can force turnovers, and Kansas is turnover-prone.  That’s where I give the Tigers an ever so slight advantage overall.

Predicted Winner: Auburn by 6 or less