The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, February 4, 2019

Monday’s PiRate Ratings (1-353)

Rk

Team

PiRate

Conf

1

Duke

124.0

ACC

2

Gonzaga

122.5

WCC

3

Virginia

122.1

ACC

4

Michigan St.

120.1

B10

5

North Carolina

119.6

ACC

6

Tennessee

119.3

SEC

7

Virginia Tech

117.6

ACC

8

Kentucky

117.4

SEC

9

Michigan

117.0

B10

10

Purdue

116.4

B10

11

Auburn

116.0

SEC

12

Iowa St.

115.7

B12

13

Wisconsin

115.6

B10

14

Kansas

115.3

B12

15

Nevada

115.1

MWC

16

Louisville

114.3

ACC

17

Texas Tech

114.2

B12

18

Villanova

113.9

BE

19

Buffalo

113.2

MAC

20

Houston

112.9

Amer

21

Marquette

112.6

BE

22

Maryland

112.6

B10

23

Nebraska

112.5

B10

24

Florida St.

112.5

ACC

25

Iowa

112.5

B10

26

Mississippi St.

112.4

SEC

27

LSU

112.2

SEC

28

North Carolina St.

112.2

ACC

29

Cincinnati

112.0

Amer

30

Baylor

111.8

B12

31

Ohio St.

111.6

B10

32

Syracuse

111.5

ACC

33

Florida

111.3

SEC

34

Texas

111.3

B12

35

Oklahoma

111.2

B12

36

Wofford

111.1

SC

37

TCU

110.7

B12

38

Kansas St.

110.6

B12

39

Washington

110.5

P12

40

Indiana

110.5

B10

41

Saint Mary’s

110.4

WCC

42

Clemson

110.3

ACC

43

Lipscomb

110.2

ASun

44

Utah St.

109.6

MWC

45

St. John’s

109.6

BE

46

Creighton

109.5

BE

47

San Francisco

109.5

WCC

48

Mississippi

109.4

SEC

49

Alabama

109.0

SEC

50

Arizona St.

109.0

P12

51

Butler

108.8

BE

52

Central Florida

108.5

Amer

53

Oregon

108.4

P12

54

Virginia Commonwealth

108.2

A10

55

Arkansas

108.1

SEC

56

Northwestern

107.9

B10

57

Minnesota

107.7

B10

58

New Mexico St.

107.5

WAC

59

Arizona

107.5

P12

60

Seton Hall

107.4

BE

61

Toledo

107.4

MAC

62

Murray St.

107.3

OVC

63

Fresno St.

107.3

MWC

64

East Tennessee St.

107.1

SC

65

Vermont

107.0

AE

66

Hofstra

106.9

CAA

67

Liberty

106.9

ASun

68

Belmont

106.8

OVC

69

Oregon St.

106.7

P12

70

Dayton

106.6

A10

71

Temple

106.6

Amer

72

Penn St.

106.6

B10

73

Connecticut

106.5

Amer

74

South Dakota St.

106.2

Sum

75

Miami (Fla)

106.2

ACC

76

Pittsburgh

106.2

ACC

77

Grand Canyon

106.1

WAC

78

Georgetown

106.1

BE

79

Providence

106.0

BE

80

Davidson

106.0

A10

81

West Virginia

105.9

B12

82

Notre Dame

105.8

ACC

83

Illinois

105.8

B10

84

Yale

105.7

Ivy

85

Georgia Tech

105.7

ACC

86

Memphis

105.6

Amer

87

Furman

105.6

SC

88

Colorado

105.3

P12

89

San Diego

105.3

WCC

90

South Carolina

105.2

SEC

91

BYU

105.2

WCC

92

Northeastern

105.2

CAA

93

Xavier

105.1

BE

94

Missouri

104.9

SEC

95

SMU

104.8

Amer

96

Northern Kentucky

104.7

Horz

97

UCLA

104.7

P12

98

Rutgers

104.6

B10

99

Oklahoma St.

104.5

B12

100

Georgia

104.5

SEC

101

Harvard

104.3

Ivy

102

DePaul

104.2

BE

103

Ball St.

104.2

MAC

104

Texas St.

104.1

SB

105

Old Dominion

104.0

CUSA

106

Rhode Island

103.9

A10

107

USC

103.9

P12

108

Montana

103.8

BSky

109

Loyola (Chi)

103.7

MVC

110

Boston College

103.7

ACC

111

Georgia St.

103.6

SB

112

Western Kentucky

103.6

CUSA

113

Texas A&M

103.5

SEC

114

South Florida

103.5

Amer

115

Penn

103.5

Ivy

116

Austin Peay

103.5

OVC

117

San Diego St.

103.4

MWC

118

Georgia Southern

103.4

SB

119

Jacksonville St.

103.3

OVC

120

Akron

103.3

MAC

121

Charleston

103.2

CAA

122

Bowling Green

103.2

MAC

123

George Mason

103.2

A10

124

Saint Louis

103.1

A10

125

Vanderbilt

103.1

SEC

126

Utah

103.0

P12

127

Utah Valley

103.0

WAC

128

Drake

102.9

MVC

129

Stanford

102.8

P12

130

Wichita St.

102.7

Amer

131

Boise St.

102.7

MWC

132

North Texas

102.7

CUSA

133

Radford

102.6

BSth

134

Tulsa

102.5

Amer

135

Northern Illinois

102.1

MAC

136

Bucknell

101.8

Pat

137

Southern Miss

101.8

CUSA

138

Brown

101.8

Ivy

139

Louisiana Tech

101.8

CUSA

140

Loyola Marymount

101.7

WCC

141

Coastal Carolina

101.5

SB

142

Central Michigan

101.5

MAC

143

Lehigh

101.4

Pat

144

St. Bonaventure

101.2

A10

145

Miami (O)

101.1

MAC

146

Kent St.

101.1

MAC

147

UC Irvine

101.0

BW

148

Wright St.

100.9

Horz

149

Princeton

100.8

Ivy

150

Southern Illinois

100.7

MVC

151

Louisiana Monroe

100.6

SB

152

Samford

100.6

SC

153

Colgate

100.2

Pat

154

Duquesne

100.2

A10

155

Missouri St.

100.1

MVC

156

Northern Colorado

100.1

BSky

157

Rider

100.1

MAAC

158

Pepperdine

100.1

WCC

159

Illinois St.

100.0

MVC

160

Stony Brook

100.0

AE

161

Cal St. Fullerton

100.0

BW

162

Winthrop

99.9

BSth

163

Weber St.

99.8

BSky

164

UMass Lowell

99.7

AE

165

Wake Forest

99.6

ACC

166

Mercer

99.6

SC

167

Abilene Christian

99.6

Slnd

168

Omaha

99.6

Sum

169

UC Santa Barbara

99.5

BW

170

NJIT

99.5

ASun

171

UAB

99.5

CUSA

172

Eastern Michigan

99.4

MAC

173

New Mexico

99.4

MWC

174

Marshall

99.4

CUSA

175

UTSA

99.1

CUSA

176

American

99.1

Pat

177

Purdue Fort Wayne

99.0

Sum

178

Louisiana

98.9

SB

179

Massachusetts

98.9

A10

180

Sam Houston St.

98.9

Slnd

181

UNC Greensboro

98.9

SC

182

Saint Joseph’s

98.8

A10

183

Gardner Webb

98.8

BSth

184

UNLV

98.6

MWC

185

IUPUI

98.6

Horz

186

Colorado St.

98.5

MWC

187

Seattle

98.4

WAC

188

Dartmouth

98.3

Ivy

189

Campbell

98.2

BSth

190

Valparaiso

98.2

MVC

191

Evansville

98.2

MVC

192

Presbyterian

98.1

BSth

193

Richmond

98.1

A10

194

Hartford

98.0

AE

195

UNC Wilmington

98.0

CAA

196

Appalachian St.

98.0

SB

197

Hawaii

98.0

BW

198

Northern Iowa

98.0

MVC

199

Cal St. Bakersfield

97.8

WAC

200

Florida Atlantic

97.8

CUSA

201

Ohio

97.8

MAC

202

Texas Southern

97.7

SWAC

203

Troy

97.7

SB

204

North Dakota St.

97.6

Sum

205

Maryland Baltimore Co.

97.6

AE

206

Green Bay

97.5

Horz

207

Pacific

97.5

WCC

208

Oakland

97.5

Horz

209

Indiana St.

97.4

MVC

210

Bradley

97.2

MVC

211

Charleston Southern

97.1

BSth

212

Illinois Chicago

97.0

Horz

213

Holy Cross

97.0

Pat

214

North Florida

96.9

ASun

215

South Alabama

96.8

SB

216

Boston University

96.8

Pat

217

High Point

96.7

BSth

218

La Salle

96.7

A10

219

Long Beach St.

96.7

BW

220

Hampton

96.6

BSth

221

William & Mary

96.6

CAA

222

Lamar

96.5

Slnd

223

Florida Int’l.

96.4

CUSA

224

Iona

96.4

MAAC

225

South Dakota

96.4

Sum

226

UC Riverside

96.3

BW

227

Quinnipiac

96.3

MAAC

228

Washington St.

96.3

P12

229

Santa Clara

96.2

WCC

230

Little Rock

96.2

SB

231

Fairleigh Dickinson

96.1

NEC

232

Robert Morris

96.1

NEC

233

Army

96.0

Pat

234

Sacred Heart

95.8

NEC

235

Eastern Kentucky

95.8

OVC

236

California Baptist

95.8

WAC

237

Detroit

95.7

Horz

238

Fordham

95.7

A10

239

Canisius

95.6

MAAC

240

Florida Gulf Coast

95.6

ASun

241

USC Upstate

95.6

BSth

242

Drexel

95.5

CAA

243

Columbia

95.5

Ivy

244

George Washington

95.5

A10

245

St. Francis PA

95.4

NEC

246

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

WAC

247

Delaware

95.3

CAA

248

Cornell

95.3

Ivy

249

Sacramento St.

95.1

BSky

250

UC Davis

95.1

BW

251

The Citadel

94.9

SC

252

St. Francis (BKN)

94.9

NEC

253

Siena

94.9

MAAC

254

Norfolk St.

94.9

MEAC

255

Western Michigan

94.9

MAC

256

UT Arlington

94.7

SB

257

Morehead St.

94.7

OVC

258

Rice

94.7

CUSA

259

Prairie View A&M

94.7

SWAC

260

Missouri Kansas City

94.7

WAC

261

Jacksonville

94.6

ASun

262

Towson

94.6

CAA

263

Air Force

94.6

MWC

264

UTEP

94.5

CUSA

265

Marist

94.5

MAAC

266

Long Island

94.4

NEC

267

Arkansas St.

94.4

SB

268

Portland St.

94.3

BSky

269

Montana St.

94.3

BSky

270

Chattanooga

94.2

SC

271

James Madison

94.2

CAA

272

Stephen F. Austin

94.2

Slnd

273

Albany

94.1

AE

274

North Dakota

94.1

Sum

275

Fairfield

94.0

MAAC

276

East Carolina

94.0

Amer

277

UT Martin

94.0

OVC

278

Wagner

94.0

NEC

279

Western Illinois

93.9

Sum

280

Texas A&M CC

93.8

Slnd

281

California

93.7

P12

282

Milwaukee

93.7

Horz

283

New Orleans

93.5

Slnd

284

Loyola (MD)

93.4

Pat

285

Tulane

93.4

Amer

286

Middle Tennessee

93.4

CUSA

287

Cal St. Northridge

93.3

BW

288

Niagara

93.3

MAAC

289

Southern Utah

93.2

BSky

290

Grambling

93.2

SWAC

291

Monmouth

93.2

MAAC

292

Youngstown St.

93.1

Horz

293

North Carolina Central

93.1

MEAC

294

Houston Baptist

93.0

Slnd

295

Tennessee St.

92.9

OVC

296

Eastern Washington

92.9

BSky

297

Central Arkansas

92.8

Slnd

298

Eastern Illinois

92.8

OVC

299

Western Carolina

92.7

SC

300

Southeastern Louisiana

92.7

Slnd

301

Denver

92.3

Sum

302

Cleveland St.

92.2

Horz

303

Longwood

92.2

BSth

304

North Carolina A&T

92.1

MEAC

305

Navy

92.0

Pat

306

Bethune Cookman

92.0

MEAC

307

Idaho St.

92.0

BSky

308

Oral Roberts

92.0

Sum

309

Lafayette

91.9

Pat

310

Charlotte

91.9

CUSA

311

Northern Arizona

91.9

BSky

312

Central Connecticut

91.8

NEC

313

Saint Peter’s

91.8

MAAC

314

McNeese St.

91.4

Slnd

315

Southeast Missouri St.

91.1

OVC

316

Alabama St.

91.1

SWAC

317

Maine

91.0

AE

318

Howard

91.0

MEAC

319

VMI

90.8

SC

320

Nicholls St.

90.8

Slnd

321

Elon

90.7

CAA

322

Portland

90.4

WCC

323

Florida A&M

90.3

MEAC

324

North Alabama

90.2

ASun

325

Wyoming

90.2

MWC

326

Manhattan

90.1

MAAC

327

Jackson St.

90.0

SWAC

328

Tennessee Tech

90.0

OVC

329

Cal Poly

89.7

BW

330

SIU Edwardsville

89.4

OVC

331

Mount St. Mary’s

89.0

NEC

332

Bryant

88.9

NEC

333

Binghamton

88.8

AE

334

Arkansas Pine Bluff

88.7

SWAC

335

Morgan St.

88.7

MEAC

336

South Carolina St.

88.5

MEAC

337

UNC Asheville

88.2

BSth

338

Southern

87.9

SWAC

339

Idaho

87.2

BSky

340

San Jose St.

86.9

MWC

341

Northwestern St.

86.7

Slnd

342

Stetson

86.5

ASun

343

Incarnate Word

85.8

Slnd

344

Kennesaw St.

85.7

ASun

345

New Hampshire

85.7

AE

346

Coppin St.

85.3

MEAC

347

Alcorn St.

84.8

SWAC

348

Alabama A&M

84.7

SWAC

349

Savannah St.

84.2

MEAC

350

Mississippi Valley St.

83.3

SWAC

351

Maryland Eastern Shore

81.3

MEAC

352

Chicago St.

80.9

WAC

353

Delaware St.

80.7

MEAC

 

Ratings Alphabetically

Rk

Team

PiRate

Conf

167

Abilene Christian

99.6

Slnd

263

Air Force

94.6

MWC

120

Akron

103.3

MAC

49

Alabama

109.0

SEC

348

Alabama A&M

84.7

SWAC

316

Alabama St.

91.1

SWAC

273

Albany

94.1

AE

347

Alcorn St.

84.8

SWAC

176

American

99.1

Pat

196

Appalachian St.

98.0

SB

59

Arizona

107.5

P12

50

Arizona St.

109.0

P12

55

Arkansas

108.1

SEC

334

Arkansas Pine Bluff

88.7

SWAC

267

Arkansas St.

94.4

SB

233

Army

96.0

Pat

11

Auburn

116.0

SEC

116

Austin Peay

103.5

OVC

103

Ball St.

104.2

MAC

30

Baylor

111.8

B12

68

Belmont

106.8

OVC

306

Bethune Cookman

92.0

MEAC

333

Binghamton

88.8

AE

131

Boise St.

102.7

MWC

110

Boston College

103.7

ACC

216

Boston University

96.8

Pat

122

Bowling Green

103.2

MAC

210

Bradley

97.2

MVC

138

Brown

101.8

Ivy

332

Bryant

88.9

NEC

136

Bucknell

101.8

Pat

19

Buffalo

113.2

MAC

51

Butler

108.8

BE

91

BYU

105.2

WCC

329

Cal Poly

89.7

BW

199

Cal St. Bakersfield

97.8

WAC

161

Cal St. Fullerton

100.0

BW

287

Cal St. Northridge

93.3

BW

281

California

93.7

P12

236

California Baptist

95.8

WAC

189

Campbell

98.2

BSth

239

Canisius

95.6

MAAC

297

Central Arkansas

92.8

Slnd

312

Central Connecticut

91.8

NEC

52

Central Florida

108.5

Amer

142

Central Michigan

101.5

MAC

121

Charleston

103.2

CAA

211

Charleston Southern

97.1

BSth

310

Charlotte

91.9

CUSA

270

Chattanooga

94.2

SC

352

Chicago St.

80.9

WAC

29

Cincinnati

112.0

Amer

42

Clemson

110.3

ACC

302

Cleveland St.

92.2

Horz

141

Coastal Carolina

101.5

SB

153

Colgate

100.2

Pat

88

Colorado

105.3

P12

186

Colorado St.

98.5

MWC

243

Columbia

95.5

Ivy

73

Connecticut

106.5

Amer

346

Coppin St.

85.3

MEAC

248

Cornell

95.3

Ivy

46

Creighton

109.5

BE

188

Dartmouth

98.3

Ivy

80

Davidson

106.0

A10

70

Dayton

106.6

A10

247

Delaware

95.3

CAA

353

Delaware St.

80.7

MEAC

301

Denver

92.3

Sum

102

DePaul

104.2

BE

237

Detroit

95.7

Horz

128

Drake

102.9

MVC

242

Drexel

95.5

CAA

1

Duke

124.0

ACC

154

Duquesne

100.2

A10

276

East Carolina

94.0

Amer

64

East Tennessee St.

107.1

SC

298

Eastern Illinois

92.8

OVC

235

Eastern Kentucky

95.8

OVC

172

Eastern Michigan

99.4

MAC

296

Eastern Washington

92.9

BSky

321

Elon

90.7

CAA

191

Evansville

98.2

MVC

275

Fairfield

94.0

MAAC

231

Fairleigh Dickinson

96.1

NEC

33

Florida

111.3

SEC

323

Florida A&M

90.3

MEAC

200

Florida Atlantic

97.8

CUSA

240

Florida Gulf Coast

95.6

ASun

223

Florida Int’l.

96.4

CUSA

24

Florida St.

112.5

ACC

238

Fordham

95.7

A10

63

Fresno St.

107.3

MWC

87

Furman

105.6

SC

183

Gardner Webb

98.8

BSth

123

George Mason

103.2

A10

244

George Washington

95.5

A10

78

Georgetown

106.1

BE

100

Georgia

104.5

SEC

118

Georgia Southern

103.4

SB

111

Georgia St.

103.6

SB

85

Georgia Tech

105.7

ACC

2

Gonzaga

122.5

WCC

290

Grambling

93.2

SWAC

77

Grand Canyon

106.1

WAC

206

Green Bay

97.5

Horz

220

Hampton

96.6

BSth

194

Hartford

98.0

AE

101

Harvard

104.3

Ivy

197

Hawaii

98.0

BW

217

High Point

96.7

BSth

66

Hofstra

106.9

CAA

213

Holy Cross

97.0

Pat

20

Houston

112.9

Amer

294

Houston Baptist

93.0

Slnd

318

Howard

91.0

MEAC

339

Idaho

87.2

BSky

307

Idaho St.

92.0

BSky

83

Illinois

105.8

B10

212

Illinois Chicago

97.0

Horz

159

Illinois St.

100.0

MVC

343

Incarnate Word

85.8

Slnd

40

Indiana

110.5

B10

209

Indiana St.

97.4

MVC

224

Iona

96.4

MAAC

25

Iowa

112.5

B10

12

Iowa St.

115.7

B12

185

IUPUI

98.6

Horz

327

Jackson St.

90.0

SWAC

261

Jacksonville

94.6

ASun

119

Jacksonville St.

103.3

OVC

271

James Madison

94.2

CAA

14

Kansas

115.3

B12

38

Kansas St.

110.6

B12

344

Kennesaw St.

85.7

ASun

146

Kent St.

101.1

MAC

8

Kentucky

117.4

SEC

218

La Salle

96.7

A10

309

Lafayette

91.9

Pat

222

Lamar

96.5

Slnd

143

Lehigh

101.4

Pat

67

Liberty

106.9

ASun

43

Lipscomb

110.2

ASun

230

Little Rock

96.2

SB

219

Long Beach St.

96.7

BW

266

Long Island

94.4

NEC

303

Longwood

92.2

BSth

178

Louisiana

98.9

SB

151

Louisiana Monroe

100.6

SB

139

Louisiana Tech

101.8

CUSA

16

Louisville

114.3

ACC

109

Loyola (Chi)

103.7

MVC

284

Loyola (MD)

93.4

Pat

140

Loyola Marymount

101.7

WCC

27

LSU

112.2

SEC

317

Maine

91.0

AE

326

Manhattan

90.1

MAAC

265

Marist

94.5

MAAC

21

Marquette

112.6

BE

174

Marshall

99.4

CUSA

22

Maryland

112.6

B10

205

Maryland Baltimore Co.

97.6

AE

351

Maryland Eastern Shore

81.3

MEAC

179

Massachusetts

98.9

A10

314

McNeese St.

91.4

Slnd

86

Memphis

105.6

Amer

166

Mercer

99.6

SC

75

Miami (Fla)

106.2

ACC

145

Miami (O)

101.1

MAC

9

Michigan

117.0

B10

4

Michigan St.

120.1

B10

286

Middle Tennessee

93.4

CUSA

282

Milwaukee

93.7

Horz

57

Minnesota

107.7

B10

48

Mississippi

109.4

SEC

26

Mississippi St.

112.4

SEC

350

Mississippi Valley St.

83.3

SWAC

94

Missouri

104.9

SEC

260

Missouri Kansas City

94.7

WAC

155

Missouri St.

100.1

MVC

291

Monmouth

93.2

MAAC

108

Montana

103.8

BSky

269

Montana St.

94.3

BSky

257

Morehead St.

94.7

OVC

335

Morgan St.

88.7

MEAC

331

Mount St. Mary’s

89.0

NEC

62

Murray St.

107.3

OVC

305

Navy

92.0

Pat

23

Nebraska

112.5

B10

15

Nevada

115.1

MWC

345

New Hampshire

85.7

AE

173

New Mexico

99.4

MWC

58

New Mexico St.

107.5

WAC

283

New Orleans

93.5

Slnd

288

Niagara

93.3

MAAC

320

Nicholls St.

90.8

Slnd

170

NJIT

99.5

ASun

254

Norfolk St.

94.9

MEAC

324

North Alabama

90.2

ASun

5

North Carolina

119.6

ACC

304

North Carolina A&T

92.1

MEAC

293

North Carolina Central

93.1

MEAC

28

North Carolina St.

112.2

ACC

274

North Dakota

94.1

Sum

204

North Dakota St.

97.6

Sum

214

North Florida

96.9

ASun

132

North Texas

102.7

CUSA

92

Northeastern

105.2

CAA

311

Northern Arizona

91.9

BSky

156

Northern Colorado

100.1

BSky

135

Northern Illinois

102.1

MAC

198

Northern Iowa

98.0

MVC

96

Northern Kentucky

104.7

Horz

56

Northwestern

107.9

B10

341

Northwestern St.

86.7

Slnd

82

Notre Dame

105.8

ACC

208

Oakland

97.5

Horz

201

Ohio

97.8

MAC

31

Ohio St.

111.6

B10

35

Oklahoma

111.2

B12

99

Oklahoma St.

104.5

B12

105

Old Dominion

104.0

CUSA

168

Omaha

99.6

Sum

308

Oral Roberts

92.0

Sum

53

Oregon

108.4

P12

69

Oregon St.

106.7

P12

207

Pacific

97.5

WCC

115

Penn

103.5

Ivy

72

Penn St.

106.6

B10

158

Pepperdine

100.1

WCC

76

Pittsburgh

106.2

ACC

322

Portland

90.4

WCC

268

Portland St.

94.3

BSky

259

Prairie View A&M

94.7

SWAC

192

Presbyterian

98.1

BSth

149

Princeton

100.8

Ivy

79

Providence

106.0

BE

10

Purdue

116.4

B10

177

Purdue Fort Wayne

99.0

Sum

227

Quinnipiac

96.3

MAAC

133

Radford

102.6

BSth

106

Rhode Island

103.9

A10

258

Rice

94.7

CUSA

193

Richmond

98.1

A10

157

Rider

100.1

MAAC

232

Robert Morris

96.1

NEC

98

Rutgers

104.6

B10

249

Sacramento St.

95.1

BSky

234

Sacred Heart

95.8

NEC

182

Saint Joseph’s

98.8

A10

124

Saint Louis

103.1

A10

41

Saint Mary’s

110.4

WCC

313

Saint Peter’s

91.8

MAAC

180

Sam Houston St.

98.9

Slnd

152

Samford

100.6

SC

89

San Diego

105.3

WCC

117

San Diego St.

103.4

MWC

47

San Francisco

109.5

WCC

340

San Jose St.

86.9

MWC

229

Santa Clara

96.2

WCC

349

Savannah St.

84.2

MEAC

187

Seattle

98.4

WAC

60

Seton Hall

107.4

BE

253

Siena

94.9

MAAC

330

SIU Edwardsville

89.4

OVC

95

SMU

104.8

Amer

215

South Alabama

96.8

SB

90

South Carolina

105.2

SEC

336

South Carolina St.

88.5

MEAC

225

South Dakota

96.4

Sum

74

South Dakota St.

106.2

Sum

114

South Florida

103.5

Amer

315

Southeast Missouri St.

91.1

OVC

300

Southeastern Louisiana

92.7

Slnd

338

Southern

87.9

SWAC

150

Southern Illinois

100.7

MVC

137

Southern Miss

101.8

CUSA

289

Southern Utah

93.2

BSky

144

St. Bonaventure

101.2

A10

252

St. Francis (BKN)

94.9

NEC

245

St. Francis PA

95.4

NEC

45

St. John’s

109.6

BE

129

Stanford

102.8

P12

272

Stephen F. Austin

94.2

Slnd

342

Stetson

86.5

ASun

160

Stony Brook

100.0

AE

32

Syracuse

111.5

ACC

37

TCU

110.7

B12

71

Temple

106.6

Amer

6

Tennessee

119.3

SEC

295

Tennessee St.

92.9

OVC

328

Tennessee Tech

90.0

OVC

34

Texas

111.3

B12

113

Texas A&M

103.5

SEC

280

Texas A&M CC

93.8

Slnd

202

Texas Southern

97.7

SWAC

104

Texas St.

104.1

SB

17

Texas Tech

114.2

B12

251

The Citadel

94.9

SC

61

Toledo

107.4

MAC

262

Towson

94.6

CAA

203

Troy

97.7

SB

285

Tulane

93.4

Amer

134

Tulsa

102.5

Amer

171

UAB

99.5

CUSA

250

UC Davis

95.1

BW

147

UC Irvine

101.0

BW

226

UC Riverside

96.3

BW

169

UC Santa Barbara

99.5

BW

97

UCLA

104.7

P12

164

UMass Lowell

99.7

AE

337

UNC Asheville

88.2

BSth

181

UNC Greensboro

98.9

SC

195

UNC Wilmington

98.0

CAA

184

UNLV

98.6

MWC

107

USC

103.9

P12

241

USC Upstate

95.6

BSth

256

UT Arlington

94.7

SB

277

UT Martin

94.0

OVC

246

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

WAC

126

Utah

103.0

P12

44

Utah St.

109.6

MWC

127

Utah Valley

103.0

WAC

264

UTEP

94.5

CUSA

175

UTSA

99.1

CUSA

190

Valparaiso

98.2

MVC

125

Vanderbilt

103.1

SEC

65

Vermont

107.0

AE

18

Villanova

113.9

BE

3

Virginia

122.1

ACC

54

Virginia Commonwealth

108.2

A10

7

Virginia Tech

117.6

ACC

319

VMI

90.8

SC

278

Wagner

94.0

NEC

165

Wake Forest

99.6

ACC

39

Washington

110.5

P12

228

Washington St.

96.3

P12

163

Weber St.

99.8

BSky

81

West Virginia

105.9

B12

299

Western Carolina

92.7

SC

279

Western Illinois

93.9

Sum

112

Western Kentucky

103.6

CUSA

255

Western Michigan

94.9

MAC

130

Wichita St.

102.7

Amer

221

William & Mary

96.6

CAA

162

Winthrop

99.9

BSth

13

Wisconsin

115.6

B10

36

Wofford

111.1

SC

148

Wright St.

100.9

Horz

325

Wyoming

90.2

MWC

93

Xavier

105.1

BE

84

Yale

105.7

Ivy

292

Youngstown St.

93.1

Horz

 

Ratings By Conference

#

America East

PiRate

65

Vermont

107.0

160

Stony Brook

100.0

164

UMass Lowell

99.7

194

Hartford

98.0

205

Maryland Baltimore Co.

97.6

273

Albany

94.1

317

Maine

91.0

333

Binghamton

88.8

345

New Hampshire

85.7

#

American Athletic

PiRate

20

Houston

112.9

29

Cincinnati

112.0

52

Central Florida

108.5

71

Temple

106.6

73

Connecticut

106.5

86

Memphis

105.6

95

SMU

104.8

114

South Florida

103.5

130

Wichita St.

102.7

134

Tulsa

102.5

276

East Carolina

94.0

285

Tulane

93.4

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

54

Virginia Commonwealth

108.2

70

Dayton

106.6

80

Davidson

106.0

106

Rhode Island

103.9

123

George Mason

103.2

124

Saint Louis

103.1

144

St. Bonaventure

101.2

154

Duquesne

100.2

179

Massachusetts

98.9

182

Saint Joseph’s

98.8

193

Richmond

98.1

218

La Salle

96.7

238

Fordham

95.7

244

George Washington

95.5

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

124.0

3

Virginia

122.1

5

North Carolina

119.6

7

Virginia Tech

117.6

16

Louisville

114.3

24

Florida St.

112.5

28

North Carolina St.

112.2

32

Syracuse

111.5

42

Clemson

110.3

75

Miami (Fla)

106.2

76

Pittsburgh

106.2

82

Notre Dame

105.8

85

Georgia Tech

105.7

110

Boston College

103.7

165

Wake Forest

99.6

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

43

Lipscomb

110.2

67

Liberty

106.9

170

NJIT

99.5

214

North Florida

96.9

240

Florida Gulf Coast

95.6

261

Jacksonville

94.6

324

North Alabama

90.2

342

Stetson

86.5

344

Kennesaw St.

85.7

#

Big 12

PiRate

12

Iowa St.

115.7

14

Kansas

115.3

17

Texas Tech

114.2

30

Baylor

111.8

34

Texas

111.3

35

Oklahoma

111.2

37

TCU

110.7

38

Kansas St.

110.6

81

West Virginia

105.9

99

Oklahoma St.

104.5

#

Big East

PiRate

18

Villanova

113.9

21

Marquette

112.6

45

St. John’s

109.6

46

Creighton

109.5

51

Butler

108.8

60

Seton Hall

107.4

78

Georgetown

106.1

79

Providence

106.0

93

Xavier

105.1

102

DePaul

104.2

#

Big Sky

PiRate

108

Montana

103.8

156

Northern Colorado

100.1

163

Weber St.

99.8

249

Sacramento St.

95.1

268

Portland St.

94.3

269

Montana St.

94.3

289

Southern Utah

93.2

296

Eastern Washington

92.9

307

Idaho St.

92.0

311

Northern Arizona

91.9

339

Idaho

87.2

#

Big South

PiRate

133

Radford

102.6

162

Winthrop

99.9

183

Gardner Webb

98.8

189

Campbell

98.2

192

Presbyterian

98.1

211

Charleston Southern

97.1

217

High Point

96.7

220

Hampton

96.6

241

USC Upstate

95.6

303

Longwood

92.2

337

UNC Asheville

88.2

#

Big Ten

PiRate

4

Michigan St.

120.1

9

Michigan

117.0

10

Purdue

116.4

13

Wisconsin

115.6

22

Maryland

112.6

23

Nebraska

112.5

25

Iowa

112.5

31

Ohio St.

111.6

40

Indiana

110.5

56

Northwestern

107.9

57

Minnesota

107.7

72

Penn St.

106.6

83

Illinois

105.8

98

Rutgers

104.6

#

Big West

PiRate

147

UC Irvine

101.0

161

Cal St. Fullerton

100.0

169

UC Santa Barbara

99.5

197

Hawaii

98.0

219

Long Beach St.

96.7

226

UC Riverside

96.3

250

UC Davis

95.1

287

Cal St. Northridge

93.3

329

Cal Poly

89.7

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

66

Hofstra

106.9

92

Northeastern

105.2

121

Charleston

103.2

195

UNC Wilmington

98.0

221

William & Mary

96.6

242

Drexel

95.5

247

Delaware

95.3

262

Towson

94.6

271

James Madison

94.2

321

Elon

90.7

#

Conference USA

PiRate

105

Old Dominion

104.0

112

Western Kentucky

103.6

132

North Texas

102.7

137

Southern Miss

101.8

139

Louisiana Tech

101.8

171

UAB

99.5

174

Marshall

99.4

175

UTSA

99.1

200

Florida Atlantic

97.8

223

Florida Int’l.

96.4

258

Rice

94.7

264

UTEP

94.5

286

Middle Tennessee

93.4

310

Charlotte

91.9

#

Horizon

PiRate

96

Northern Kentucky

104.7

148

Wright St.

100.9

185

IUPUI

98.6

206

Green Bay

97.5

208

Oakland

97.5

212

Illinois Chicago

97.0

237

Detroit

95.7

282

Milwaukee

93.7

292

Youngstown St.

93.1

302

Cleveland St.

92.2

#

Ivy

PiRate

84

Yale

105.7

101

Harvard

104.3

115

Penn

103.5

138

Brown

101.8

149

Princeton

100.8

188

Dartmouth

98.3

243

Columbia

95.5

248

Cornell

95.3

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

157

Rider

100.1

224

Iona

96.4

227

Quinnipiac

96.3

239

Canisius

95.6

253

Siena

94.9

265

Marist

94.5

275

Fairfield

94.0

288

Niagara

93.3

291

Monmouth

93.2

313

Saint Peter’s

91.8

326

Manhattan

90.1

#

Mid-American

PiRate

19

Buffalo

113.2

61

Toledo

107.4

103

Ball St.

104.2

120

Akron

103.3

122

Bowling Green

103.2

135

Northern Illinois

102.1

142

Central Michigan

101.5

145

Miami (O)

101.1

146

Kent St.

101.1

172

Eastern Michigan

99.4

201

Ohio

97.8

255

Western Michigan

94.9

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

254

Norfolk St.

94.9

293

North Carolina Central

93.1

304

North Carolina A&T

92.1

306

Bethune Cookman

92.0

318

Howard

91.0

323

Florida A&M

90.3

335

Morgan St.

88.7

336

South Carolina St.

88.5

346

Coppin St.

85.3

349

Savannah St.

84.2

351

Maryland Eastern Shore

81.3

353

Delaware St.

80.7

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

109

Loyola (Chi)

103.7

128

Drake

102.9

150

Southern Illinois

100.7

155

Missouri St.

100.1

159

Illinois St.

100.0

190

Valparaiso

98.2

191

Evansville

98.2

198

Northern Iowa

98.0

209

Indiana St.

97.4

210

Bradley

97.2

#

Mountain West

PiRate

15

Nevada

115.1

44

Utah St.

109.6

63

Fresno St.

107.3

117

San Diego St.

103.4

131

Boise St.

102.7

173

New Mexico

99.4

184

UNLV

98.6

186

Colorado St.

98.5

263

Air Force

94.6

325

Wyoming

90.2

340

San Jose St.

86.9

#

Northeast

PiRate

231

Fairleigh Dickinson

96.1

232

Robert Morris

96.1

234

Sacred Heart

95.8

245

St. Francis PA

95.4

252

St. Francis (BKN)

94.9

266

Long Island

94.4

278

Wagner

94.0

312

Central Connecticut

91.8

331

Mount St. Mary’s

89.0

332

Bryant

88.9

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

62

Murray St.

107.3

68

Belmont

106.8

116

Austin Peay

103.5

119

Jacksonville St.

103.3

235

Eastern Kentucky

95.8

257

Morehead St.

94.7

277

UT Martin

94.0

295

Tennessee St.

92.9

298

Eastern Illinois

92.8

315

Southeast Missouri St.

91.1

328

Tennessee Tech

90.0

330

SIU Edwardsville

89.4

#

Pac-12

PiRate

39

Washington

110.5

50

Arizona St.

109.0

53

Oregon

108.4

59

Arizona

107.5

69

Oregon St.

106.7

88

Colorado

105.3

97

UCLA

104.7

107

USC

103.9

126

Utah

103.0

129

Stanford

102.8

228

Washington St.

96.3

281

California

93.7

#

Patriot

PiRate

136

Bucknell

101.8

143

Lehigh

101.4

153

Colgate

100.2

176

American

99.1

213

Holy Cross

97.0

216

Boston University

96.8

233

Army

96.0

284

Loyola (MD)

93.4

305

Navy

92.0

309

Lafayette

91.9

#

Southeastern

PiRate

6

Tennessee

119.3

8

Kentucky

117.4

11

Auburn

116.0

26

Mississippi St.

112.4

27

LSU

112.2

33

Florida

111.3

48

Mississippi

109.4

49

Alabama

109.0

55

Arkansas

108.1

90

South Carolina

105.2

94

Missouri

104.9

100

Georgia

104.5

113

Texas A&M

103.5

125

Vanderbilt

103.1

#

Southern

PiRate

36

Wofford

111.1

64

East Tennessee St.

107.1

87

Furman

105.6

152

Samford

100.6

166

Mercer

99.6

181

UNC Greensboro

98.9

251

The Citadel

94.9

270

Chattanooga

94.2

299

Western Carolina

92.7

319

VMI

90.8

#

Southland

PiRate

167

Abilene Christian

99.6

180

Sam Houston St.

98.9

222

Lamar

96.5

272

Stephen F. Austin

94.2

280

Texas A&M CC

93.8

283

New Orleans

93.5

294

Houston Baptist

93.0

297

Central Arkansas

92.8

300

Southeastern Louisiana

92.7

314

McNeese St.

91.4

320

Nicholls St.

90.8

341

Northwestern St.

86.7

343

Incarnate Word

85.8

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

202

Texas Southern

97.7

259

Prairie View A&M

94.7

290

Grambling

93.2

316

Alabama St.

91.1

327

Jackson St.

90.0

334

Arkansas Pine Bluff

88.7

338

Southern

87.9

347

Alcorn St.

84.8

348

Alabama A&M

84.7

350

Mississippi Valley St.

83.3

#

Summit

PiRate

74

South Dakota St.

106.2

168

Omaha

99.6

177

Purdue Fort Wayne

99.0

204

North Dakota St.

97.6

225

South Dakota

96.4

274

North Dakota

94.1

279

Western Illinois

93.9

301

Denver

92.3

308

Oral Roberts

92.0

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

104

Texas St.

104.1

111

Georgia St.

103.6

118

Georgia Southern

103.4

141

Coastal Carolina

101.5

151

Louisiana Monroe

100.6

178

Louisiana

98.9

196

Appalachian St.

98.0

203

Troy

97.7

215

South Alabama

96.8

230

Little Rock

96.2

256

UT Arlington

94.7

267

Arkansas St.

94.4

#

West Coast

PiRate

2

Gonzaga

122.5

41

Saint Mary’s

110.4

47

San Francisco

109.5

89

San Diego

105.3

91

BYU

105.2

140

Loyola Marymount

101.7

158

Pepperdine

100.1

207

Pacific

97.5

229

Santa Clara

96.2

322

Portland

90.4

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

58

New Mexico St.

107.5

77

Grand Canyon

106.1

127

Utah Valley

103.0

187

Seattle

98.4

199

Cal St. Bakersfield

97.8

236

California Baptist

95.8

246

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

260

Missouri Kansas City

94.7

352

Chicago St.

80.9

 

Conferences Rated

#

League

PiRate Avg.

1

Big Ten

111.5

2

Atlantic Coast

111.4

3

Big 12

111.1

4

Southeastern

109.7

5

Big East

108.3

6

American Athletic

104.4

7

Pac-12

104.3

8

West Coast

103.9

9

Mid-American

102.4

10

Atlantic 10

101.1

11

Ivy

100.7

12

Mountain West

100.6

13

Missouri Valley

99.6

14

Southern

99.6

15

Sun Belt

99.2

16

Conference USA

98.6

17

Colonial Athletic

98.0

18

Western Athletic

97.7

19

Horizon

97.1

20

Patriot

97.0

21

Ohio Valley

96.8

22

Summit

96.8

23

Big South

96.7

24

Big West

96.6

25

Atlantic Sun

96.2

26

America East

95.8

27

Big Sky

95.0

28

Metro Atlantic

94.6

29

Northeast

93.6

30

Southland

93.1

31

Southwestern Athletic

89.6

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.5

 

Looking Ahead At March Madness

We are less than six weeks away from Selection Sunday, and if you have followed the PiRate Ratings for any amount of time, you know that Selection Sunday is our busiest time of the year.  We have become known for our course in Bracketnomics where we apply numerical data and compare it historically to past national champions in an effort to pick the next champion or at the least isolate the handful of teams that have a championship resume based on numerical data.

Over the weekend, we ran the data on a group of contenders to see how they look at this point in the season.  Of course, most of the power conferences have played less than 50% of their league schedules, and these statistics will swing wildly in the next 40 days.  Let’s look at who has that championship look in early February.

The Four Factors

We hope that most if not all of you reading this post today know what the four factors are, and you know they are actually two sets of four factors, since we need to know the data for every team offensively and defensively.

If you need a primer on the four factors, you can find an excellent discussion of it at: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html

Please note that the PiRate Ratings’ Four Factors differ from these NBA Four Factors by a tad, especially in FT Rate formula and the calculation of TO Rate, because the rules in the NBA free throw rules differ from the NCAA.

The PiRate Ratings also weight these four factors a little differently than the way they are rated for NBA teams.  It is our own proprietary formula.

Here is a factor by factor list of 18 teams that are shining just two months before that one shining moment.

Effective Field Goal % Difference

Team FG% Diff
Virginia 24.2
Gonzaga 15.3
Michigan St. 14.0
Tennessee 11.4
Duke 11.4
Virginia Tech 11.0
Wisconsin 9.7
Houston 9.5
Marquette 8.5
Iowa St. 8.3
Michigan 7.8
Washington 7.7
Nevada 7.6
Kentucky 5.9
Villanova 5.7
North Carolina 5.3
Purdue 3.1

The Virginia number just pops off the page.  This is a number not seen very often in the past.  I am sure that if you went back to the 1960’s and 1970’s, and you somehow factor in which shots would have counted for three points back then if there had been a three-point shot, then maybe one or two of the great UCLA teams with exceptional outside shooters combined with a Kareem Abdul Jabbar or Bill Walton, might have enjoyed an effective FG% difference of 24%.

The next five on this list have really fat differences in effective shooting percentages, and you probably know that this stat is worth in the neighborhood of half the value of the Factors.  The name of the game is to put the ball into the basket more than the other team, so obviously shooting percentage on offense and defense is the key factor.

Turnover Rate Difference

Team TO Rate
Michigan 5.2
Nevada 5.0
Virginia Tech 4.7
Purdue 4.6
Gonzaga 4.5
Iowa St. 3.9
Virginia 3.8
Duke 3.7
Tennessee 3.1
Wisconsin 2.6
Kentucky 2.0
North Carolina 2.0
Houston 1.8
Washington 1.8
Villanova 1.1
Marquette -2.0
Michigan St. -3.7

Anything over 3 is really good in this stat, so there are nine teams that are exploiting their opposition in this department.  As you will see later down, there is an additional step we take that includes turnovers that helps us determine who can take more advantage than other teams.

In the case of Marquette and Michigan State, their TO rates are negative, which means this is an exploitable opportunity for their opponents.  Michigan State does not force a lot of turnovers, and this hurt the Spartans when they lost to Purdue recently.

Rebound Rate Difference

Team Reb Rate
North Carolina 12.0
Kentucky 11.7
Houston 8.8
Duke 8.0
Michigan St. 7.7
Purdue 7.5
Virginia 7.1
Gonzaga 4.6
Villanova 4.5
Marquette 3.7
Tennessee 2.6
Virginia Tech 2.6
Michigan 2.4
Nevada -0.1
Iowa St. -0.5
Washington -2.0
Wisconsin -3.5

Kentucky and North Carolina basically retrieve 56% of the normalized rebounds in their games.  Normalized refers to the factoring of potential offensive rebounds and potential defensive rebounds into one stat that predicts what an average team would be expected to perform given the offensive and defensive rebounding opportunities.

The bottom four on this list have negative rebound rates, something you rarely see by a Final Four team.  In the Big Dance, after you arrive at the Sweet 16, your opponent usually forces you to miss more shots that you normally miss, thus making rebounding more important after March 20 than before March 20.

Free Throw Rate Difference

Team FT Rate
Kentucky 10.7
Nevada 9.4
Gonzaga 7.6
Tennessee 6.4
Michigan 5.3
Iowa St. 5.2
Virginia 5.2
Virginia Tech 5.0
Villanova 4.9
Marquette 3.9
North Carolina 2.9
Washington 2.4
Houston 1.7
Duke 0.6
Michigan St. 0.3
Wisconsin 0.2
Purdue -0.4

This is the least important of the Four Factors, but there is a reason to look at this stat.  Most of the teams at the top get the ball inside and force the other team to foul.  The fact that the other team’s players might get into foul trouble is what makes this stat important.  If the other team has one star player, getting that one player into foul trouble where he plays 24 minutes instead of 36 minutes has reduced his playing time by 1/3.  It can then be worth the equivalent of a 10-point swing.

Still, a team with a low FT Rate difference can overcome this liability and still get to the Final Four.

Weighted Four Factors Subtotal

What we refer to as wFF, is simply our calculation of the four factors and weighting them by each factor with Field Goal percentage rating as the most important and Free Throw percentage rating as the least important.  The final number is a good starting point in determining which teams have the best dancing resumes.

Team wFF
Virginia 15.1
Gonzaga 10.4
Duke 8.0
Tennessee 7.7
Virginia Tech 7.7
Michigan St. 7.6
Houston 6.9
Kentucky 6.3
Michigan 6.1
Nevada 6.0
Iowa St. 5.7
North Carolina 5.3
Wisconsin 5.2
Marquette 4.9
Villanova 4.4
Washington 4.4
Purdue 3.7

The top four might easily be the #1 seeds in six weeks.  Isn’t this interesting in seeing that the weighted Four Factors gives us the potential top four?   Of course, these stats have been compiled against different strengths of schedule.  Let’s show you each of the 18 teams’ strengths of schedule.

Team SOS
Michigan St. 61.6
Purdue 61.6
North Carolina 61.3
Duke 60.5
Wisconsin 60.4
Kentucky 58.6
Virginia 58.1
Michigan 57.6
Tennessee 57.2
Iowa St. 57.2
Villanova 56.6
Marquette 56.3
Gonzaga 56.1
Virginia Tech 56.1
Washington 54.7
Nevada 53.1
Houston 51.3

This number might not mean anything to you unless you follow our site like it is your hobby.  A SOS of 50 is average, but that means average for all 353 teams.  For a power conference team, anything under 55.5 means this team played a weak schedule.  When you see a team with an SOS of 58 or more, they have played a strong schedule.  When the SOS tops 60, it is a brutally tough schedule.

Sometimes, an SOS over 60 can work against a team, as they tire in March from playing such a brutal schedule.  When a team’s schedule is between 58 and 60, this is usually the optimum number, but there have been NCAA Champions from the ACC with 60+ SOS.

When you see a team with an SOS under 55, they have only a remote chance of making the Final Four, and basically no chance of winning the national championship.  Washington’s pathetic 54.7 does not bode well for the lone potential NCAA At-large team from the Pac-12.  Virginia Tech’s SOS is low for an ACC team, which can only mean that the Hokies have a tough schedule the rest of the way.

The Four Factors Meet SOS

Let’s combine the wFF with SOS to see which teams have the most impressive resumes to date.  This is another one of our own formulas that apply multiply SOS layers to the wFF number.

Team PiRate
Virginia 84
Michigan St. 81
Duke 78
North Carolina 73
Wisconsin 70
Purdue 69
Kentucky 68
Tennessee 66
Gonzaga 65
Michigan 64
Iowa St. 62
Virginia Tech 62
Villanova 58
Marquette 58
Washington 54
Nevada 50
Houston 45

This certainly looks good for Virginia, but then again, the Cavaliers looked almost this good last year and then became the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed.  Might Virginia have an ax to grind in the heads of six opponents this year?  Before their coronation, let us remind you of the DePaul Blue Demons two generations ago.  DePaul was a number one seed three consecutive years, including the top overall seed in two of those years, and they lost in their opening round game all three times!  In these days of yore, there were 48 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Depaul lost to #8 seed UCLA in 1980, #9 seed Saint Joseph’s in 1981, and #8 seed Boston College in 1982.

Adding Some PiRate Ratings Exclusive Data

The PiRate Ratings created the R+T rating, using a formula that has shown that there are a select few teams that have the ability to go on scoring spurts that put the opponent away.

The R+T estimates the number of extra scoring opportunities a team enjoys in an average game.  It takes rebounding and turnover margin into account, but it further breaks down turnovers into steals and not steals.  When a team throws the ball away or commits a travelling turnover, the game stops, and the referee hands the ball to the other team but only after the defense is set in place.  When a steal is made, the team with the ball has an immediate scoring opportunity, so steals are more important than any other turnover as well as more important than defensive rebounds.

Here are the R+T ratings for the 18 teams

Team R+T
North Carolina 24.1
Kentucky 24.0
Duke 23.0
Gonzaga 21.6
Houston 20.6
Virginia 20.2
Michigan St. 18.5
Purdue 16.5
Tennessee 15.5
Virginia Tech 14.2
Michigan 13.9
Nevada 11.8
Villanova 11.4
Iowa St. 10.7
Marquette 10.6
Washington 6.4
Wisconsin 6.3

Pay careful attention to those six teams with 20+ R+T Ratings.  These are teams that will go on scoring spurts to put the other team out of its misery.  North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, Gonzaga, Houston, and Virginia have fantastic advantages over the rest of the field.  In a tight game in the last half of March, a 10-0 spurt in three minutes is like a three-run homer to break up a tie game in the World Series in the 6th inning or later.

The six teams at the bottom of this list are what we might call upset victims.  Of course, these ratings can change in the next six weeks, but if the tournament began today, we would quickly discard these six teams with sub 12 R+T ratings.

The Four Best Resumes

After looking at the resumes for these 18, four have better overall numbers than the rest.  Three of them are the ACC powers, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia.  The fourth is Michigan State, but the Spartans have just lost star wing player Joshua Langford for the season and did not play well against Indiana without him.  We expect MSU’s stats to suffer enough that they will fall well behind the other top teams in the next six weeks.  That moves Kentucky into this group as the fourth of the four superior teams.  John Calipari deserves a lot of credit, because his team regularly improves from November to March.  Tennessee might be number one in the nation again this week, but we believe Kentucky is the best SEC team just by looking at this data.

 

 

 

 

 

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