PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, January 14, 2019

January 14, 2019

Seed	Team	Conf.
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Duke	ACC
1	Michigan	Big Ten
1	Texas Tech	Big 12
2	Tennessee	SEC
2	Gonzaga	West Coast
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Houston	American Athletic
3	Virginia Tech	ACC
3	North Carolina	ACC
3	Kentucky	SEC
3	Kansas	Big 12
4	Nebraska	Big Ten
4	Buffalo	MAC
4	Oklahoma	Big 12
4	NC State	ACC
5	Auburn	SEC
5	Purdue	Big Ten
5	Marquette	Big East
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten
6	Indiana	Big Ten
6	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Louisville	ACC
6	Ole Miss	SEC
7	LSU	SEC
7	Florida St.	ACC
7	Nevada	Mountain West
7	Iowa St.	Big 12
8	Villanova	Big East
8	Iowa	Big Ten
8	TCU	Big 12
8	Wofford	Southern
9	UCF	American Athletic
9	Mississippi St.	SEC
9	Cincinnati	AAC
9	Ohio St.	Big Ten
10	St. John’s (NY)	Big East
10	Washington	Pac-12
10	Seton Hall	Big East
10	Florida	SEC
11	Utah St.	Mountain West
11	Murray St.	Ohio Valley
11	San Francisco	West Coast
11	Temple	American Athletic
12	Liberty	Atlantic Sun
12	Minnesota	Big Ten
12	Butler	Big East
12	Kansas St.	Big 12
12	Texas	Big 12
12	VCU	Atlantic 10
13	Hofstra	Colonial
13	North Texas	Conference USA
13	Yale	Ivy
13	Vermont	America East
14	New Mexico St.	WAC
14	UC Irvine	Big West
14	Radford	Big South
14	Georgia St.	Sun Belt
15	South Dakota St.	Summit League
15	Northern Ky.	Horizon
15	Loyola Chicago	Missouri Valley
15	Montana	Big Sky
16	Lehigh	Patriot
16	Rider	Metro Atlantic
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	Texas Southern	Southwestern Athletic
16	Wagner	Northeast
16	N.C. A&T	Mideastern Athletic

 

First 4 Out
69	Arizona	Pac-12
70	Saint Mary’s	West Coast
71	Northwestern	Big Ten
72	Creighton	Big East
Next 4 Out
73	Syracuse	ACC
74	Alabama	SEC
75	Saint Louis	Atlantic 10
76	Clemson	ACC
Last 4 Byes
10	Florida	SEC
11	Utah St.	Mountain West
11	San Francisco	West Coast
11	Temple	American Athletic
Last 4 In — Headed To Dayton
12	Minnesota	Big Ten
12	Butler	Big East
12	Kansas St.	Big 12
12	Texas	Big 12
16 Seeds Headed To Dayton
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	Texas Southern	Southwestern Athletic
16	Wagner	Northeast
16	North Carolina A&T	Mideastern Atheltic

About these Seedings: The PiRate Ratings seed the teams not according to our power ratings, but according to the criteria mandated by the NCAA and used by the Selection Committee when they meet in Indianapolis to pick the field and make the bracket.

If you want to read the criteria, the NCAA has it available at the following site:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness

The Committee Relies on the following data as its reference tool.

1.) The Won-Loss records of each team under consideration by the 4 Quadrant.

The Quadrants use the rankings of the teams from 1-353 by old RPI and then handicap those games based on whether they were Home, Road, or Neutral Site games.

A. Quadrant 1 = Home 1-30 / Neutral 1-50 / Road 1-75

B. Quadrant 2 = Home 31-75 / Neutral 51-100 / Road 76-135

C. Quadrant 3 = Home 76-160 / Neutral 101-200 / Road 136-240

D. Quadrant 4 = Home 161-353 / Neutral 201-353 / Road 241-353

2.) Net Efficiency Rankings for offense and defense

This is an advanced statistical metric that we will try to explain as simply as possible (probably not possible) later this week in our next installment of “Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs.”  The efficiency ratings are similar to power ratings that can be adjusted to tempo and schedule strength to determine how much better a team is compared to average.

3.) Winning Percentage and Adjusted Winning Percentage

This is rather obvious.  Nevada will most likely have one of the top 10 winning percentages this year, maybe the best.  However, would the Wolf Pack post anything close to that mark playing in the ACC or Big Ten?  The Committee will look at winning percentages plus schedule strength when determining at-large teams and seedings.

4.) Scoring Margin but capped at 10 points

This is the most controversial part of the criteria for reasons at both ends.  First, there are NCAA interests that prefer that scoring margin not be included at all, because it might encourage teams to run up the score in blowout games to pad their ratings.  

The reason that the NCAA capped the scoring margin at 10 points was to try to stop the running up of the score in potential blowout games.

However, there are many that believe that 10 points is too low.  There are many close games that are within doubt in the final minute but end up as 10-point margins due to foul shooting at one end and missed three-pointers at the other end.  There are many teams that have 20-point leads before emptying the bench that end up winning by 10 points.  These two outcomes should not carry the same weight.

Let’s look at two examples of how this 10-point capping looks dumb to us from two SEC games played this past Saturday.

In Gainesville, the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers were fighting out a close game, and Tennessee had a 69-67 lead in the final 1:10 of the game.  Florida had the ball and missed a good percentage three-point shot that would have given the Gators the lead with just over a minute to play.  Tennessee got the rebound, and All-American Grant Williams spotted All-SEC Admiral Schofield open for a three-pointer, which Schofield then drained to give the Vols a 72-67 lead with 45 seconds to go.

Florida took a timeout to set their offense to get an open three-pointer, and the shot by Jalen Hudson was off target.  Tennessee rebounded again, and Lamonte Turner was fouled.  Turner hit both shots to make it 74-67 with just 25 seconds remaining.  

Florida now had to hurry, and this Gator team is not the most excellent in passing the ball.  Jordon Bone made a steal and then took it to the hole for a slam to seal the victory at 76-67 and just 9 seconds left.

Florida basically quit at this point, and one final steal by Grant Williams led to a Jordan Bowman layup to make the final score 78-67.  Tennessee got the maximum credit for winning by 10 points or more.

Later that evening, Kentucky hosted Vanderbilt at Rupp Arena.  The Wildcats started slowly not able to penetrate the Commodore 2-3 zone defense, which Vandy played the entire night.  Vandy started off red hot and led by 12, before Coach John Calipari turned up the defensive pressure and shut down the Commodores perimeter game.  It got rather ugly as Kentucky’s defense limited Vanderbilt to just 31 points in the last 35 minutes of the game. 

Kentucky dominated after the opening five minutes of the game, but they did so by winning ugly with a stellar defensive effort and credible offensive effort.  At one point, Kentucky outscored Vanderbilt by  50-27, which is total domination.  Late in the game, the Wildcats led by 11 points, and the outcome was certain.  Kentucky had the ball up by 11, and Keldon Johnson was called for a charging foul that might have been the wrong call, but at this point in the game (under a minute), it was inconsequential.  Vanderbilt scored to cut the lead to 56-47, and then they fouled to stop the clock with just over 20 seconds to go.  

P.J. Washington missed the front end of the 1 and 1 foul shot, and Vandy rebounded.  A missed three pointer led to a Kentucky rebound and easy clear out for the game-ending slam to give Kentucky an 11-point win, but the Kentucky player was a true Commonwealth Gentleman.  Rather than take the dunk after being open by 25 feet, he pulled up and dribbled out the clock to give Kentucky a 9-point win.  In other words, the Wildcats dominated this game for 35 minutes and get credit for a 9-point win.  Tennessee trailed for much of the game and most of the second half and through a few freak plays get credit for the capped win of 10-points.  That’s why the scoring margin is the last part of the new criteria.  The cap should be 25 points that should go into effect at any time that the winning team has the 25-point lead and wins by 10 or more.  If they empty the bench and win by 10, they would still get credit for the 25-point lead they had.

Coming Later Today–An updated Basketball Rankings & Our Preview of the NFL Conference Championship Games

Coming Midweek–The next installment of our Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs