The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 20, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 22-26, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:49 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Detroit Chicago -2.3 -2.3 -3.3 49
Dallas Washington 5.8 6.6 5.4 41
New Orleans Atlanta 16.2 16.7 17.2 53.5
Buffalo Jacksonville -4.1 -3.8 -4.2 36
Baltimore Oakland 15.0 15.4 15.3 41.5
Tampa Bay San Francisco 2.4 1.9 2.7 49.5
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 6.3 6.4 5.8 43.5
Cincinnati Cleveland 2.5 2.6 2.0 48
N.Y. Jets New England -7.4 -8.4 -7.8 46
Carolina Seattle 3.2 2.8 3.1 46.5
Indianapolis Miami 8.9 8.4 9.6 48.5
L.A. Chargers Arizona 10.2 11.6 10.7 41.5
Denver Pittsburgh -4.9 -5.4 -5.5 45
Minnesota Green Bay 4.8 4.3 4.9 46
Houston Tennessee 6.0 5.9 6.7 43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.8 105.2 104.9 105.0 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.3 94.6 94.6 23 3-7
Miami 94.8 94.4 94.5 94.5 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.6 92.5 92.2 92.4 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 7-2-1
Baltimore 102.2 102.5 102.1 102.3 21 5-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-5
Cleveland 96.1 96.4 96.8 96.4 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.1 101.2 101.5 101.2 24 7-3
Indianapolis 100.7 99.8 101.0 100.5 26.5 5-5
Jacksonville 99.2 98.8 98.9 98.9 19 3-7
Tennessee 98.1 98.2 97.8 98.0 19 5-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 108.0 107.9 107.8 29.5 9-2
LA Chargers 102.9 103.6 103.1 103.2 23 7-3
Denver 99.6 99.3 99.1 99.3 21 4-6
Oakland 90.6 90.6 90.3 90.5 20.5 2-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 5-5
Philadelphia 99.8 99.9 99.4 99.7 22 4-6
Washington 97.6 96.8 97.6 97.3 21.5 6-4
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 21.5 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 7-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.7 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-4-1
Green Bay 100.3 100.9 100.1 100.4 24.5 4-5-1
Detroit 99.0 98.9 98.7 98.9 25.5 4-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 113.8 114.0 114.4 114.1 28 9-1
Carolina 102.6 102.2 102.8 102.5 24.5 6-4
Atlanta 100.6 100.3 100.2 100.3 25.5 4-6
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 27 3-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.2 107.7 107.2 107.4 29 10-1
Seattle 102.4 102.4 102.8 102.5 22 5-5
San Francisco 95.3 95.5 95.2 95.3 22.5 2-8
Arizona 95.2 94.6 94.9 94.9 18.5 2-8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 Kansas City
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Indianapolis

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Carolina
6 Seattle

 

Wildcard Round
Indianapolis over New England
Houston over L.A. Chargers
Chicago over Seattle
Carolina over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
Kansas City over Houston
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
PIttsburgh over Kansas City
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Last Night’s Rams-Chiefs Game Made A Lot of History, BUT…

Last night’s Rams-Chiefs game at the Coliseum in Los Angeles was historic.  The 105 points scored, however, was not an all-time regular season high total.  Yours truly remembers the one game that tallied 113 total points.

The year was 1966.  The Green Bay Packers were trying to win the Western Conference Championship with the Baltimore Colts hot on their heels.  In the Eastern Conference, upstart Dallas, a seventh year franchise yet to have experienced a winning record was about to surprise the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland.

It was the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  The football world was still talking about the Michigan State-Notre Dame game the week before and the fact that Notre Dame had secured the national title by their 51-0 pasting of USC the day before.

The Washington Redskins were just 5-6 on the dawn of this Sunday.  For Redskin fans, this was a high water mark for their franchise in recent years, as the club became known as the “Deadskins” during these years.  Legendary quarterback Otto Graham, the Tom Brady of the late 1940’s and 1950’s, had taken over the running of the team, and in his first year as head coach, Washington’s offense was much improved.  Quarterback Sonny Jurgensen flourished in the new offense, and the defense was still a work in progress with a couple of aging stars, led by the once best defender in the league in Sam Huff.

The New York Giants were headed in the opposite direction.  Just a few years earlier, the Giants rode the arm of Y.A. Tittle to three consecutive Eastern Conference Championships.  From the late 1940’s through the early 1960’s, the Giants were the most consistently good team in the NFL, much like the Pittsburgh Steelers have been since the 1970’s.  However, by 1966, the Giants had fallen on hard times.  This was their worst team in history up to that time and arguably their worst team ever.  Coach Allie Sherman’s offense was too inconsistent and conservative, and after half of a season, Sherman benched veteran starter Earl Morrall, when the Giants fell to 1-5-1.  The lone win came over the Redskins at Yankee Stadium.  At the halfway point, Sherman decided to go with what he believed was the future quarterback, Ivy Leaguer Gary Wood.  Wood was in his third season in New York, and he had played sparingly and inefficiently.  The Giants lost their next game, and they headed to District of Columbia Stadium (would be renamed Robert F. Kennedy Stadium after his assassination) to face the Redskins in a hope to sweep the one team the players believed they could beat.  They entered the game at 1-8-1.

Sherman decided to make another quarterback change for this game.  He inserted Rookie Tom Kennedy, a stretch prospect from a small college.  This would be Kennedy’s only start of his brief one year career and only real playing experience of the season.

On the other side of the field, the aging Huff prepared for this game like it was Super Bowl I.  He hated Sherman, enough to punch him in the jaw if he got the chance.  Sherman had dismissed Huff from the Giants following the 1963 season after the Giants lost to the Bears in the NFL Championship.  He wanted to punish Sherman, and when the Redskins lost to New York a few weeks earlier, it made Huff even more violent than was portrayed in the spectacular documentary, “The Violent World of Sam Huff.”

Huff fired up his teammates for this game.  The Redskins put in a game plan to blitz the daylights out of the raw rookie.  They would rush him and force him to get rid of the ball quickly or prepare to accept a lot of floral bouquets in his upcoming hospital room.

On the other side of the ball, the Redskins understood that with an erratic quarterback most likely unable to sustain many drives, that they would get many opportunities to exploit the worst defense in the NFL.  The Redskins’ players felt confident that they could top 30 points in this game and win by double digits.

The Giants won the toss that day.  It would be their only win of the day.  Kennedy was thrown into the fray quickly, and on his first pass attempt, Washington blitzed and forced him to pass quickly.  The ball was well off target and was intercepted and returned deep into Giants’ territory.  A short Redskin drive led to an immediate touchdown.  The PAT was blocked, and the score was 6-0 Redskins.

Kennedy improved somewhat the rest of the first quarter.  He improved from intercepted passes to incomplete passes.  At least, punter Ernie Koy pinned the Redskins back inside their own 25 yard line.

The Giants figured that they would have to stop Jurgensen’s pinpoint deep passes to all-pro end Charley Taylor.  This opened up running lanes, and halfback A.D. Whitfield broke free for the longest run in his career, over 60 yards for the second touchdown.  The PAT was good this time, and the Redskins led 13-0 after the end of the first quarter.  Nobody could guess what would happen next.

In the second quarter, Kennedy began to complete some passes and drove the Giants into Washington territory.  A pass play was called with an option to throw the ball to the end zone.  Facing a linebacker blitz, Chris Hanburger clobbered Kennedy into the ground, and he coughed up the ball going down.  Rookie defensive back Brig Owens would be a star one day, but on this day, he would have his best ever game.  He already had an interception in this game, and he scooped up the fumble and went all the way to the house for a Redskins’ touchdown.  Now, the score was 20-0, and the Giants could see the writing on the wall.

On the next possession, Kennedy had his career moment.  He drove the Giants 70+ yards for a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-7.  Kennedy felt confident on the sideline that he could lead the Giants back into this game.  After the defense forced Washington to punt, Kennedy began to move the Giants toward midfield, when he threw his second interception of the half.  A few plays later, Washington scored on a line plunge to make it 27-7 with time left to completely put the game away before halftime.

Once again, the key weapon for the Redskins just before the half was their defensive backfield.  Kennedy threw his third interception into the hands of future Minnesota Vikings’ Hall of Famer Paul Krause.  Jurgensen quickly led the Redskins to paydirt, and Washington led 34-7 with less than two minutes remaining in the half.  At this point, Sherman had seen enough of Kennedy.  He inserted Wood into the game, and Wood directed the Giants on a quick touchdown drive to cut the lead to 34-14 at the half.

In the locker room, Huff told his teammates not to let up and to pour it on New York.  He wanted to top 50 points, maybe even get to 60.  He knew the Giants’ defense would totally fold in the second half.  In the other locker room, Sherman decided to stick with Wood at quarterback to start the third quarter.  Wood would face the same blitz packages as Kennedy, but Wood was just as interception prone as Kennedy.  He was just as likely to complete passes to the wrong colored jersey as his own, and he would not disappoint Huff and his Redskins’ teammates.

However, on the Giants’ first possession of the third quarter, Wood directed the Giants on a scoring march.  The Giants might have been inept on defense, but they still had some weapons.  Receivers Homer Jones and Aaron Thomas were threats to score any time they caught the ball in the open field.  Old-timer Joe Morrison still had the ability to find an overdrive gear and bust open a long play.  Wood connected with Morrison, and the veteran took the ball the distance to cut the lead to 34-21.  The Giants were still alive with more than a quarter to go.

I know what you are thinking.  At this point, the game was midway through the third quarter, and the score was only 34-21.  How in the world could the teams combine for 58 more points in the next quarter and a half?  From this point on, it looked like an Arena Football game.  It started with a quick touchdown drive led by Jurgensen to put the Redskins up 41-21.  He finally connected with Taylor on a long scoring pass.

A few plays into the next drive, Wood threw a long bomb for a touchdown to Jones to cut the lead to 41-28.  Not to be outdone, Jurgensen threw long to Taylor, and Taylor took it all the way for a 74-yard score to make it 48-28, as the third quarter came to a close.

The fourth quarter was just plain crazy.  It started with New York having to punt from well inside their own territory.  Rickie Harris, who led the NFL in punt returns as a rookie in 1965 was experiencing a sophomore slump, but he broke free for a touchdown on the return, as Washington stretched the lead to 55-28.

Rather quickly, Wood tossed a touchdown pass, but this time it was to the opposite colored jerseys.  Owens intercepted his third pass of the day, and he scored on his second 60+ yard return to make it 62-28.

At this point, Sherman put Kennedy back in to face the relentless pressure.  In what would be his one big highlight of the day, he quickly responded with a touchdown pass to Thomas to make it 62-34 when the PAT sailed wide.

At this point, Graham relieved Jurgensen for the rest of the day, placing backup Dick Shiner into the game.  Shiner attempted one pass on the day, and it was intercepted, which led to the Giants scoring for the last time on this day to cut the lead to 62-41.  Time was running out on this classic game, but there would be two more scores yet.

Down by three touchdowns, Sherman called for an onside kick, which failed.  A couple of plays later, back Charlie Mitchell broke through the line on a quick trap and ran 45 yards for a touchdown.  The score was now 69-41 in favor of the Redskins, the second highest amount ever scored in an NFL game.

The last score should not have happened.  Kennedy tried to move the Giants quickly and was out of time outs.  He thought he was clocking the ball on 3rd down to set up a 4th down pass for a first down, but instead, it was 4th down.  When he threw the ball out of bounds (spiking was not legal then), the Redskins took over possession deep in Giants’ territory with less than 10 seconds remaining.

All Washington had to do was take a knee, and the game would be over.  But, Sam Huff had other ideas this Sunday afternoon.  He wasn’t pleased with just a 28-point when and 69 points.  He hated Sherman so much that he called a timeout.  He convinced Coach Graham to let kicker Charlie Gogolak try a field goal to put Washington over the 70-point mark, something that had only been done once before in regular season play and would be second most ever to when Chicago beat the Redskins 73-0 in the NFL Championship Game of 1945.

During the timeout, Huff was observed telling Sherman about his family heritage among other expletives.  He wanted to goad the Giants into starting a fight, so he could go deck Sherman.  Instead, Gogolak finished the game with a field goal to make the final score 72-41.  Coach Graham stood up for Huff by stating that he wanted to give Gogolak some extra field goal practice, but Charlie had made nine PATs in this game and didn’t need any more practice.

The win moved Washington to 6-6 in the standings, and the Redskins would split their final two games to finish the season at 7-7, their only non-losing record in a 12-year span.  Washington would not enjoy a winning season until 1969 when Vince Lombardi coached his last team prior to his death.

As for the Giants, the next week, they scored 40 points again, and for the only time in history a team lost consecutive games when they scored 40 or more points, as the Browns came from 20 points down to win 49-40.  New York would finish the season 1-12-1, giving up 35.8 points per game and turning the ball over an amazing 44 times in 14 games.  They would finally have a star quarterback the following year, when they traded for Fran Tarkenton from Minnesota, but the best Sherman could do with Tarkenton were consecutive 7-7 seasons in 1967 and 1968.  It would take until 1981 for the Giants to make the playoffs again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6 Comments

  1. Hello, if Chase Daniel gets the start over Trubisky tomorrow morning, how much does this move your line ratings? Thanks in advance!

    Comment by Jun Sellers — November 21, 2018 @ 10:20 am

  2. Jun, because Trubisky was only listed as doubtful this morning, and we must submit our picks to the Prediction Tracker on Tuesday, we had no way of adjusting Chicago’s road disadvantage. Our teaser parlay selected Detroit over the Bears more because of the number rather than the personnel itself. Teasers are more about numbers than trying to parse player matchups. Games tend to end with pointspreads that are not random, and if you know the numbers well enough, you can gain about 3 to 5% advantage over the norm, which eliminates the vig.

    Of course, we advise all readers not to use our data to wager real money. Our picks are 100% for entertainment purposes only.

    Comment by piratings — November 21, 2018 @ 11:20 am

    • Ok thank you and understood. I’ve been using your ratings to help in my weekly pickem league (SUW) the past few weeks and just wasn’t sure if this move would the +/- needle over to Detroit or not. I don’t use these ratings in any other wagers other than guidance in my weekly picks. As I type up this reply, Bovada doesn’t have this game’s line posted so I’ll keep my eyes peeled between now and tomorrow morning to see who’s favorited, thanks again.

      Comment by Jun Sellers — November 21, 2018 @ 11:39 am

  3. I am new to your weekly rankings. One quick question. Is home field factored into your ratings? If so, in both pro and college?

    Comment by Mike — November 28, 2018 @ 9:00 am

  4. I am a new viewer on PiRatings. Is home field factored into your ratings? If so, for both pro and college?

    Comment by Mike — November 28, 2018 @ 9:01 am

    • We go a couple of steps farther than just a standard home field advantage. We also factor in road team disadvantage. Some teams play better on the road than others, and in some games, the road team may actually have more fans in the stands than the home team. We do not have a set home field number like many sites. Playing at Notre Dame and playing at Coastal Carolina are not the same thing. Likewise, when a West Coast team plays a game on the East Coast, their road disadvantage is worth more points to the opponent than if Philadelphia plays at the Giants or the Redskins play at the Ravens.

      Thanks for viewing our site–we’re a bit goofy but we like to share in the fun of sports.

      Comment by piratings — November 28, 2018 @ 10:42 am


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