The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Kent St. 22.1 23.1 23.3

 

Wednesday November 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Ohio U -3.7 -3.3 -2.3
Northern Illinois Toledo 0.2 -0.1 0.5

 

Thursday November 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 11.7 13.2 13.5

 

Friday November 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse Louisville 22.9 22.1 23.2
Boise St. Fresno St. -2.0 -2.3 -2.9

 

Saturday November 10
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Temple 1.8 2.5 1.5
Rutgers Michigan -40.1 -39.9 -42.5
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
Boston College Clemson -19.6 -19.4 -20.6
Texas A&M Ole Miss 13.3 12.4 13.2
Tennessee Kentucky -13.0 -11.2 -13.3
Massachusetts BYU -16.5 -15.3 -16.5
Virginia Liberty 26.1 26.9 25.1
Georgia Southern Troy 1.2 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. Baylor 15.8 16.1 16.0
Central Florida Navy 30.0 28.3 30.8
West Virginia TCU 10.6 11.0 11.6
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla.) 4.3 5.0 5.0
Kansas St. Kansas 7.3 7.4 8.1
Eastern Michigan Akron 7.4 7.7 7.8
Indiana Maryland -1.4 -1.1 -0.7
Connecticut SMU -18.9 -18.4 -19.5
Duke North Carolina 13.9 12.9 13.7
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 16.1 16.7 16.7
Iowa Northwestern 9.0 9.0 8.9
Cincinnati South Florida 12.9 13.2 13.9
Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. -6.5 -5.4 -7.2
Tulane East Carolina 15.3 16.1 15.9
Utah Oregon 9.7 8.1 9.5
Colorado Washington St. -9.1 -7.5 -8.2
Marshall Charlotte 18.1 18.4 18.4
Old Dominion North Texas -15.6 -14.6 -16.5
Central Michigan Bowling Green 8.0 10.0 8.5
Nevada Colorado St. 12.8 12.2 13.3
Stanford Oregon St. 32.1 31.9 33.6
UTEP Middle Tennessee -17.5 -16.1 -18.8
Georgia Auburn 15.9 14.6 15.6
Penn St. Wisconsin 8.8 8.8 9.5
Alabama Mississippi St. 24.1 24.3 24.7
Air Force New Mexico 14.2 13.7 14.9
Missouri Vanderbilt 19.1 17.4 20.0
Nebraska Illinois 12.8 12.0 12.8
Minnesota Purdue -14.2 -13.9 -14.7
Memphis Tulsa 12.6 14.5 13.2
Florida South Carolina 3.1 2.4 4.3
USC California 3.9 4.5 3.1
Texas Tech Texas 1.2 1.5 1.0
Arkansas LSU -16.4 -18.2 -18.7
Utah St. San Jose St. 35.3 35.7 38.0
Texas St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -20.3 -22.5
Louisiana Georgia St. 9.0 9.2 10.1
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 20.9 19.3 20.9
South Alabama UL-Monroe -7.7 -6.4 -8.0
Louisiana Tech Rice 28.6 27.9 30.9
UTSA Florida Int’l. -10.3 -9.9 -10.4
Notre Dame Florida St. 21.8 20.2 21.6
UAB Southern Miss. 17.2 16.8 17.8
Michigan St. Ohio St. -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Arizona St. UCLA 16.3 15.5 18.6
San Diego St. UNLV 22.7 21.7 23.1

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0
4 Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4
5 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
6 Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7
7 Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0
8 Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2
11 Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8
12 Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
14 Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9
15 Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6
17 Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3
18 West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0
19 Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6
20 Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4
21 Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2
22 Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0
23 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
24 Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5
26 Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2
27 Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5
28 Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3
29 Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1
30 Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0
31 N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9
32 Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6
33 Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3
34 Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1
35 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
36 Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0
37 Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8
38 Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5
39 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
40 Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2
41 Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0
42 Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0
43 Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2
44 U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7
45 T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9
46 California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9
47 Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1
49 Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
50 Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6
51 Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4
54 Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0
55 Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8
56 Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2
57 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
58 Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
59 Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8
60 Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4
61 Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2
62 Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1
64 BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6
65 U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6
66 Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5
67 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4
68 Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7
69 N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
71 N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5
72 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
74 Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5
75 Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5
76 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
77 U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0
78 Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9
79 Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5
80 Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4
81 Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1
82 Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9
83 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
84 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4
85 SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0
86 Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6
87 Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6
88 Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5
89 Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3
90 Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6
91 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
92 Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9
93 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
94 Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2
95 Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0
96 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5
98 Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4
99 Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0
100 Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8
101 Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9
102 Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7
103 Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8
104 UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6
105 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
106 Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5
107 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
108 Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1
109 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
110 East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2
111 Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7
112 Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5
113 Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0
114 Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5
115 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
116 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
117 Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2
118 Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1
119 U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0
120 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
121 San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7
122 Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8
123 Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3
124 U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3
125 South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7
126 Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8
127 U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0
128 Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6
129 N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6
130 Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6 5-0 8-0
Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8 4-1 5-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 4-1 8-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-2 7-2
East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-5 2-6
Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9 2-3 5-4
Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8 4-1 7-2
Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4 3-2 4-5
SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0 3-2 4-5
Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0 1-4 2-7
Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9 1-4 2-7
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 6-0 9-0
Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8 4-1 7-2
N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9 2-2 6-2
Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0 4-2 7-2
Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 2-5 4-5
Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1 1-4 4-5
Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2 0-6 2-7
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 3-3 5-4
Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1 2-3 5-4
Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6 2-3 6-3
Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 3-2 4-4
Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7 4-2 6-3
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1 4-1 5-4
N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6 1-5 1-7
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7 5-1 8-1
West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0 5-1 7-1
Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2 4-2 5-3
Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3 4-2 6-3
Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5 3-3 5-4
Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2 2-4 5-4
T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9 2-4 4-5
Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2 1-5 3-6
Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2 3-3 5-4
Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1 1-5 3-6
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0 6-0 8-1
Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0 5-1 8-1
Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7 5-2 6-3
Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 3-3 6-3
Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 3-3 5-4
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7 0-6 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9 3-3 6-3
Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2 4-2 5-4
Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1 4-2 6-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-4
Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4 1-5 2-7
Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9 1-5 4-5
Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9 2-4 4-5
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 2-3 4-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 3-2 5-3
Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5 5-1 6-3
Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0 4-1 6-3
Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-5 1-8
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-2 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6 6-0 8-1
N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5 3-2 7-2
Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6 4-1 6-3
Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8 2-3 3-5
U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3 2-3 3-6
U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0 1-4 1-8
Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0 0-6 1-9
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 9-0
Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6 x 7-2
BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6 x 4-5
Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7 x 4-4
Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5 4-1 6-3
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4 5-0 8-1
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4 3-2 3-6
Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5 2-3 4-4
Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5 1-4 2-7
Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7 3-2 5-4
Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9 5-0 6-3
Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6 3-3 5-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1 0-6 1-9
Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0 5-0 8-1
Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0 4-1 7-2
Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5 1-4 3-6
Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-4 3-6
Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4 5-0 8-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 4-1 7-2
Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3 3-2 5-4
Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1 3-3 6-5
U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0 0-5 2-7
San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7 1-4 1-8
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 3-3 5-4
Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5 5-1 8-1
Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2 3-3 6-3
California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9 2-4 5-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-5 2-7
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3 4-3 6-3
Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8 3-3 5-4
U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7 4-3 5-4
Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4 4-3 5-5
Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2 2-4 5-4
U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0 2-4 2-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4 6-1 8-1
Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8 1-4 5-4
Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0 5-2 7-2
Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3 4-3 6-3
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 4-3 5-3
Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5 1-4 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 6-0 9-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-3 6-3
L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2 4-2 7-2
Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6 3-3 6-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5 3-3 5-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-4 5-4
Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 4-1 6-2
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 5-0 7-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7 4-1 7-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-3 5-4
Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3 1-4 2-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8 2-3 5-4
UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6 3-2 5-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-3 4-5
South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7 1-4 2-7
Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8 1-4 3-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Utah St.
  4. Cincinnati
  5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Houston [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 SMU [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Buffalo]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Boston College Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. UL-Monroe
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Central Florida Kentucky
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large North Carolina St. West Virginia
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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