Week 17 PiRate Rating Spreads
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Total |
| Baltimore | Cincinnati | 13.1 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 38 |
| Detroit | Green Bay | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 46 |
| Miami | Buffalo | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 41 |
| Atlanta | Carolina | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 50 |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | -7.9 | -7.3 | -8.0 | 49 |
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | -2.4 | -2.2 | -2.8 | 45 |
| New England | N.Y. Jets | 16.4 | 16.9 | 16.5 | 39 |
| Indianapolis | Houston | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 44 |
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 18.8 | 18.3 | 21.8 | 39 |
| N.Y. Giants | Washington | -4.9 | -4.6 | -5.0 | 42 |
| Minnesota | Chicago | 12.7 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 34 |
| Philadelphia | Dallas | 6.9 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 46 |
| LA Chargers | Oakland | 9.3 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 44 |
| Seattle | Arizona | 8.7 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 41 |
| Denver | Kansas City | -6.0 | -6.1 | -6.4 | 42 |
| LA Rams | San Francisco | 13.7 | 13.3 | 14.1 | 50 |
Current PiRate Ratings–12/26/2017
| A F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| New England | 108.3 | 108.4 | 108.4 | 108.3 | 23 | 12-3 |
| Buffalo | 96.0 | 96.3 | 96.1 | 96.1 | 20 | 8-7 |
| Miami | 95.8 | 95.9 | 95.3 | 95.7 | 21 | 6-9 |
| N. Y. Jets | 94.3 | 94.0 | 94.4 | 94.3 | 16 | 5-10 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Pittsburgh | 107.0 | 107.1 | 107.2 | 107.1 | 23 | 12-3 |
| Baltimore | 105.5 | 105.7 | 105.6 | 105.6 | 22 | 9-6 |
| Cincinnati | 95.3 | 96.1 | 94.9 | 95.5 | 16 | 6-9 |
| Cleveland | 90.7 | 91.4 | 87.9 | 90.0 | 16 | 0-15 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Jacksonville | 103.3 | 103.2 | 103.4 | 103.3 | 23 | 10-5 |
| Tennessee | 97.8 | 98.0 | 97.6 | 97.8 | 22 | 8-7 |
| Indianapolis | 92.3 | 92.7 | 91.8 | 92.3 | 22 | 4-11 |
| Houston | 91.0 | 91.2 | 90.4 | 90.9 | 22 | 3-12 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| LA Chargers | 104.5 | 104.1 | 104.7 | 104.4 | 23 | 8-7 |
| Kansas City | 103.1 | 103.2 | 103.5 | 103.3 | 23 | 9-6 |
| Oakland | 97.7 | 98.3 | 97.0 | 97.7 | 21 | 6-9 |
| Denver | 95.2 | 95.0 | 95.1 | 95.1 | 19 | 5-10 |
| N F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Philadelphia | 106.7 | 105.4 | 107.7 | 106.6 | 23 | 13-2 |
| Dallas | 101.8 | 101.4 | 101.7 | 101.7 | 23 | 8-7 |
| Washington | 98.4 | 98.6 | 98.2 | 98.4 | 24 | 7-8 |
| N.Y. Giants | 91.5 | 92.0 | 91.2 | 91.6 | 18 | 2-13 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Minnesota | 107.4 | 107.0 | 108.1 | 107.5 | 18 | 12-3 |
| Detroit | 99.4 | 99.7 | 99.2 | 99.5 | 27 | 8-7 |
| Green Bay | 98.2 | 98.7 | 97.5 | 98.1 | 19 | 7-8 |
| Chicago | 96.7 | 96.8 | 96.7 | 96.7 | 16 | 5-10 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| New Orleans | 107.4 | 106.8 | 107.9 | 107.4 | 28 | 11-4 |
| Atlanta | 103.9 | 103.7 | 104.1 | 103.9 | 24 | 9-6 |
| Carolina | 103.2 | 102.4 | 103.5 | 103.0 | 26 | 11-4 |
| Tampa Bay | 97.5 | 97.5 | 97.9 | 97.6 | 21 | 4-11 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| LA Rams | 107.3 | 106.6 | 107.9 | 107.3 | 25 | 11-4 |
| Seattle | 102.9 | 103.0 | 102.3 | 102.7 | 20 | 9-6 |
| Arizona | 97.2 | 97.1 | 97.0 | 97.1 | 21 | 7-8 |
| San Francisco | 96.1 | 95.8 | 96.3 | 96.1 | 25 | 5-10 |
Playoff Scenarios
You can go to any sports site online to see the generic playoff scenarios, where you can see what must happen for each potential playoff team to earn their spot. Let’s take a look at the logical scenarios in the order that they are most likely to occur.
AFC
Baltimore
The Ravens have the overwhelming advantage among the teams vying for the two wildcard spots. The 4 division championships have been clinched. Baltimore is the number 5 seed if they win at home over Cincinnati Sunday. The Ravens have about a 75% chance of winning this game and getting in at #5. Even if the Ravens lose to the Bengals, if Either Buffalo or Tennessee lose but not both, the Ravens still get in as the number 6 seed. If Baltimore loses, and both Buffalo and Tennessee lose, then Baltimore stays at number 5.
Baltimore falls out of the playoffs only if they lose to Cincinnati, and both Buffalo and Tennessee win. The Ravens have about a 95% chance of making the playoffs.
Tennessee
The Titans have the best chance of making the playoffs as the 6-seed (or even 5-seed) of the remaining contenders. If Tennessee beats Jacksonville on Sunday, the Titans are in as the 6-seed if Baltimore wins, and the 5-seed if Baltimore loses. What Buffalo does in this instance does not affect the Titans moving up to number 5; only what Baltimore does affects the Titans seeding if they beat a Jacksonville team that has nothing to play for (3-seed win or lose) and will most likely rest their key players.
Tennessee can still make the playoffs at 8-8 if Buffalo and the LA Chargers lose. They hold all tiebreakers over the Bills and Chargers.
Tennessee misses out on the playoffs if the Titans lose to the Jaguars and either Buffalo or the Chargers win. The Titans chances for making the playoffs are about 55%.
Los Angeles Chargers
This is where the scenarios get a little tricky. First, the Chargers can only get in the playoffs if they win and Tennessee loses. However, they still need some help. Either Baltimore must also win or Buffalo must lose, or else the Chargers will be eliminated. If Buffalo and Baltimore win, then the Chargers get in over the Bills, but if Buffalo wins and Baltimore loses, then the Bills take the 6-seed. Of course, if Tennessee and Buffalo lose, and the Chargers win, then the Chargers make it over both the Titans and Bills. The Chargers have about a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs under these scenarios.
Buffalo
The Bills are on life support with only a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs. There are at least two different sets of scenarios that will get the Bills in. If they win at Miami in what will most likely be Jay Cutler’s real swan song, then they can get in if Baltimore loses, which will then eliminate the Chargers. They would move up to a 5-seed in this scenario if Tennessee loses or gets the 6-seed if Tennessee wins.
The Bills will also make it as the 6-seed if they win and both Tennessee and the LA Chargers lose. They can then earn the 5-seed if Baltimore also loses.
Top Seed
New England holds the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, so the only way the Steelers can get the top seed is for the Jets to beat the Pats, while the Steelers send Cleveland to 0-16.
NFC
Philadelphia has clinched the top seed. If Minnesota beats Chicago in Minneapolis, the Vikings get the 2-seed. Minnesota can still get the 2-seed, if they lose to the Bears, and they will still get the 2-seed unless Carolina wins, New Orleans, loses, and the Rams lose. Then, Carolina would get this seed. Chances are better than 95% that Minnesota gets the 2-seed.
For the 3-seed, the LA Rams hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Carolina, while New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.
The 5-seed will go to either Carolina or New Orleans, whichever does not win the NFC South (New Orleans has about a 60% chance and Carolina a 40% chance).
The 6-seed is what is up for grabs
Atlanta
The Falcons earn this spot with a win over Carolina or a Seattle loss to Arizona.
Seattle
The Seahawks must win and Atlanta must lose.
Here are our Playoff Projections for this week.
| AFC Seeding | |
| 1 | New England |
| 2 | Pittsburgh |
| 3 | Jacksonville |
| 4 | Kansas City |
| 5 | Baltimore |
| 6 | Tennessee |
| NFC Seeding | |
| 1 | Philadelphia |
| 2 | Minnesota |
| 3 | LA Rams |
| 4 | New Orleans |
| 5 | Carolina |
| 6 | Atlanta |
| Wildcard Round | |||
| Kansas City over Baltimore | |||
| Jacksonville over Tennessee | |||
| Carolina over New Orleans | |||
| LA Rams over Atlanta | |||
| Divisional Round | |||
| New England over Kansas City | |||
| Jacksonville over Pittsburgh | |||
| Carolina over Philadelphia | |||
| LA Rams over Minnesota | |||
| Conference Championship | |||
| New England over Jacksonville | |||
| LA Rams over Carolina | |||
| Super Bowl 52 | |||
| LA Rams over New England |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 