This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Total |
| Indianapolis | Denver | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 41 |
| Detroit | Chicago | 6.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 45 |
| Kansas City | LA Chargers | -1.7 | -0.8 | -2.0 | 46 |
| N. Y. Giants | Philadelphia | -12.6 | -10.6 | -14.6 | 43 |
| Carolina | Green Bay | 7.1 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 48 |
| Minnesota | Cincinnati | 12.9 | 11.7 | 14.0 | 35 |
| Buffalo | Miami | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 41 |
| Jacksonville | Houston | 11.1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 44 |
| New Orleans | N. Y. Jets | 16.2 | 16.0 | 16.6 | 47 |
| Washington | Arizona | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 47 |
| Cleveland | Baltimore | -12.0 | -11.7 | -12.2 | 39 |
| Seattle | LA Rams | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 46 |
| Pittsburgh | New England | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 45 |
| San Francisco | Tennessee | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 45 |
| Oakland | Dallas | -1.9 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 47 |
| Tampa Bay | Atlanta | -4.5 | -4.2 | -4.4 | 48 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
| A F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| New England | 107.8 | 107.9 | 107.9 | 107.8 | 22 | 10-3 |
| Miami | 96.5 | 96.5 | 96.1 | 96.4 | 21 | 6-7 |
| Buffalo | 95.9 | 96.3 | 95.9 | 96.0 | 20 | 7-6 |
| N. Y. Jets | 94.1 | 93.8 | 94.2 | 94.1 | 18 | 5-8 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Pittsburgh | 105.8 | 105.9 | 106.0 | 105.9 | 23 | 11-2 |
| Baltimore | 105.7 | 106.0 | 105.8 | 105.8 | 22 | 7-6 |
| Cincinnati | 95.6 | 96.4 | 95.2 | 95.8 | 17 | 5-8 |
| Cleveland | 91.2 | 91.8 | 91.1 | 91.3 | 17 | 0-13 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Jacksonville | 102.7 | 102.6 | 102.8 | 102.7 | 22 | 9-4 |
| Tennessee | 97.7 | 97.8 | 97.3 | 97.6 | 22 | 8-5 |
| Houston | 94.6 | 94.7 | 94.1 | 94.5 | 22 | 4-9 |
| Indianapolis | 93.0 | 93.3 | 92.5 | 92.9 | 22 | 3-10 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| LA Chargers | 105.8 | 105.1 | 106.2 | 105.7 | 23 | 7-6 |
| Kansas City | 101.0 | 101.4 | 101.2 | 101.2 | 23 | 7-6 |
| Oakland | 97.5 | 98.1 | 96.7 | 97.4 | 23 | 6-7 |
| Denver | 95.0 | 94.9 | 94.8 | 94.9 | 19 | 4-9 |
| N F C | ||||||
| East | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Philadelphia | 107.4 | 106.0 | 108.8 | 107.4 | 25 | 11-2 |
| Dallas | 102.4 | 101.9 | 102.4 | 102.3 | 24 | 7-6 |
| Washington | 97.5 | 97.7 | 97.3 | 97.5 | 25 | 5-8 |
| N.Y. Giants | 92.8 | 93.4 | 92.2 | 92.8 | 18 | 2-11 |
| North | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| Minnesota | 105.5 | 105.1 | 106.2 | 105.6 | 18 | 10-3 |
| Detroit | 100.3 | 100.6 | 100.0 | 100.3 | 27 | 7-6 |
| Green Bay | 99.4 | 99.9 | 98.7 | 99.3 | 21 | 7-6 |
| Chicago | 96.6 | 96.7 | 96.8 | 96.7 | 18 | 4-9 |
| South | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| New Orleans | 107.4 | 106.8 | 107.9 | 107.4 | 29 | 9-4 |
| Atlanta | 104.1 | 103.9 | 104.3 | 104.1 | 26 | 8-5 |
| Carolina | 103.5 | 102.7 | 104.0 | 103.4 | 27 | 9-4 |
| Tampa Bay | 97.2 | 97.2 | 97.4 | 97.3 | 22 | 4-9 |
| West | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Avg | Totals | W-L |
| LA Rams | 104.9 | 104.4 | 105.5 | 104.9 | 25 | 9-4 |
| Seattle | 104.4 | 104.4 | 103.9 | 104.2 | 21 | 8-5 |
| Arizona | 95.7 | 95.6 | 95.5 | 95.6 | 22 | 6-7 |
| San Francisco | 94.4 | 94.3 | 94.5 | 94.4 | 23 | 3-10 |
NFL Playoff Projections
Beginning this week, we look forward predicting the outcomes of every game and then use the NFL tiebreaker system to forecast seeds. Prior to week 15, we use only the PiRate Ratings themselves to estimate won-loss record.
This week, we have Seattle winning a tiebreaker over the Rams for the NFC West, with the Rams getting a wildcard, and we have the Saints winning a tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South, with the Panthers getting the other wildcard.
In the AFC, we still show New England getting the top seed by virtue of a road win against the Steelers. We have the Chargers edging the Chiefs in the AFC West, but we show KC getting the last playoff spot due to a possible 4-game collapse by Tennessee.
This is rather sketchy and only one possible outcome for the season. Obviously, by this time next week, the probabilities will be drastically reduced with many key games.
| AFC Seeding | |
| 1 | New England |
| 2 | Pittsburgh |
| 3 | Jacksonville |
| 4 | LA Chargers |
| 5 | Baltimore |
| 6 | Kansas City |
| NFC Seeding | |
| 1 | Philadelphia |
| 2 | Minnesota |
| 3 | New Orleans |
| 4 | Seattle |
| 5 | LA Rams |
| 6 | Carolina |
| Wildcard Round | |||
| Jacksonville over Kansas City | |||
| LA Chargers over Baltimore | |||
| New Orleans over Carolina | |||
| Seattle over LA Rams | |||
| Divisional Round | |||
| New England over LA Chargers | |||
| Jacksonville over Pittsburgh | |||
| Seattle over Philadelphia | |||
| Minnesota over New Orleans | |||
| Conference Championship | |||
| New England over Jacksonville | |||
| Minnesota over Seattle | |||
| Super Bowl 52 | |||
| New England over Minnesota |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 